Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
There's a 90 percent chance of heavy rain starting tonight around the scheduled first pitch of Game Three and continuing through Sunday. In downtown Manhattan it's been overcast and unseasonably humid all day and as I look out the window now at 4:00, there are darker clouds rolling in and the wind has picked up considerably. The odds of the Yankees getting rained out to night seem very high. Still, on the off chance that the game is played tonight, here are my thoughts entering Game Three:
This is the eleventh time in eleven years that the Yankees have participated in a best-of-five ALDS, so we all know the deal by now. The road team is pleased to come home with a split, but Game Three is crucial. Much like on a 1-1 count to a batter, the difference between being up 2-1 or down 1-2 is tremendous. Thus, outside of the actual clincher itself, Game Three is easily the most important game in the series.
Good thing then that the Yankees have their ace ready to take the hill. Randy Johnson has faced the Angels twice this year. The first time he pitched six strong innings, but caught his spikes on the Angel Stadium mound, tweaking his back and forcing Joe Torre to turn to his bullpen early. After a classic case of Torre's bullpen mismanagement, Vlad Guerrero hit a grand slam off of Tom Gordon to hand the Yankees a 6-5 loss. In Johnson's next outing against the Angels, this time in New York, he had less success, allowing a pair of homers to the Molina brothers which drove in four runs. That time it was the Angel bullpen that blew the game, leading to an 8-7 Yankee win in eleven innings. Take away those two mistakes, however, and Johnson's line in that game improves to 7 1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K.
As Johnson has allowed just three home runs in his last eight starts of the season (two legitimate shots to Vernon Wells and Manny Ramirez and Tony Graffanino's fly ball to the red line atop the Green Monster) one hopes he'll be able to keep the Angels in the park tonight. Over those eight starts, Johnson has gone 6-0 with a 1.93 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP, proving to be the ace the Yankees traded, ultimately, Dioner Navarro, Brad Halsey, Randy Choate, Nick Johnson and the Angels' Juan Rivera for. Take out his ejection-shortened start in Toronto and his line improves to 49 2/3 IP, 27 H, 8 R, 2 HR, 11 BB, 42 K, 1.45 ERA, 0.77 WHIP in seven starts.
Paul Byrd, meanwhile, faced the Yankees just once this year, allowing three runs on nine hits and a walk over seven innings. Byrd is essentially Jon Leiber. Not only is he a righthanded sinkerballer who pitches to contact, owns righties (.211 GPA this year), struggles with lefties (.271 GPA), and absolutely refuses to walk anyone (just 28 walks on the season, 1.23 per 9IP), but since 2003 his career has followed the exact same path as Leiber's. Both pitchers signed a free-agent deal with a perennial playoff team before the 2003 season, then missed that season due to Tommy John surgery, finally joining their new club with the 2004 season underway. Both then became a crucial part of that team's rotation, pitching them into the playoffs where they made their postseason debuts, only to sign with a different club for 2005. What's more, the two pitchers were born just six months and one day apart in 1970 and were later drafted out of college. Of course, Byrd is smaller than the 6'3" 220-pound Leiber, and Leiber in no way resembles Kelsey Grammer.
After Bengie Molina went 2 for 4 with the game-tying hit and his second homer of the series in Game Two, Mike Scioscia said he would stick with Molina in the five hole behind Vladimir Guerrero, which is what he should have been doing all year (my comment, not his). Also, look for Scioscia to break out his right-handed line-up against Johnson, which would put Figgins in center, Robb Quinlan at third, and Steve Finley on the bench. I just hope he hasn't gotten a hold of my ALDS preview in which I point out that his line-up against lefties should really look something like this (listed by position, stats vs. lefties only):
1B: Kotchman (L) .344 OBP
2B: Kennedy (L) .348 OBP
SS: Cabrera (R)
3B: Quinlan (R) .542 SLG
C: B. Molina (R) .356 GPA
RF: Guerrero (R) .315 GPA
CF: DaVanon (S) .365 GPA
LF: Anderson (L)
DH: J. Molina (R) .303 GPA
Instead we'll probably get something like this (listed by batting order, stats vs. lefties only):
S - Chone Figgins (CF) .228 GPA
R - Orlando Cabrera (SS)
L - Garret Anderson (LF)
R - Vlad Guerrero (RF)
R - Bengie Molina (C)
R - Robb Quinlan (3B)
L - Darin Erstad (1B) .213 GPA
R - Juan Rivera (DH) .232 GPA
L - Adam Kennedy (2B)
Of course, Randy Johnson isn't your run-of-the-mill lefty. We're talking about a pitcher who has held Vlad Guerrero to a .200 OBP in 30 confrontations. That said, Orlando Cabrera has had great success against Johnson (8 for 22 with five walks and no Ks!), Erstad has handled the big Unit better than the typical lefty (5 for 20 with two walks and a homer), and we've already discussed what the Molina's did to him in his last start against the Angels at Yankee Stadium.
Meanwhile, the only thing we know about the last four spots in the Yankee order is that two of them will be taken up by Robinson Cano and Johnson's personal catcher John Flaherty. I for one would like to see Bubba Crosby back in center, even if having both Flaherty and Crosby in the line-up is less than ideal. If Torre decides to do that, his choice of DH becomes crucial. My initial choice would be Jorge Posada, who went 2 for 3 with a homer and a walk in Game Two. Joe is leaning in another direction:
"I'm not discounting [Posada as a DH]," Torre said on a conference call Thursday. "But we'll look and decide what our options are against Byrd and go from there. Right now, the first five guys will stay the same and then we'll arrange it from there on out. I'm not saying [Posada] won't be the DH, but I think it's doubtful."Sierra is likely, Torre said, "because he's probably the most adept at it. He's had the most experience. You know, he loves the pressure and all that. He certainly would be a consideration. I think he would be the first consideration, and then you work out and match them up from there.
"But again, we want to get [Sierra] involved because we know what he can bring to the table, especially being a switch-hitter, and they don't have a left-hander coming out of the bullpen. The fact that Ruben has been down this road before, he would probably be the No. 1 guy we would look at." (MLB.com)
That sounds like a lot of veteranitis double-talk (and frankly, it is), but that doesn't mean Torre isn't on to something. In 78 at-bats as a DH from 1996-2004, Jorge posted a pathetic .179/.293/.282 line (this year he went 3 for 10 with a walk). What's more, Jorge is a dreadful 1 for 13 against Byrd in his career. Sierra, meanwhile, is 3 for 6 with a pair of homers against Byrd.
Still, Sierra hasn't hit under any circumstances this year and that sample size against Byrd is ridiculously small. Thanks to reader Shaun P, we also know how and when it was assembled:
In 2001 with Texas, Sierra walked, struck out, and hit a grand slam in 3 PAs against Byrd (Byrd was a Royal at the time). Note this game was at Kauffman Stadium, which was a severe hitters' park at the time. [the grand slam would also indicated that Byrd was strugging in that game as he'd loaded the bases in front of Sierra -CJC] In 2002 with Seattle, Sierra hit a single and a solo homer in 4 PAs aginst Byrd (still a Royal), this time at Safeco, of course not a hitters' park.
So what about Bernabe Figueroa Williams? Bernie hit .294/.362/.459 from the DH spot this year and .261/.330/.416 from the left side of the plate, both improvements on his overall numbers. What's more, Bernie is 5 for 15 off Byrd in his career with a pair of homers of his own, his best numbers against any of the Angels' pitchers.
DHing Bernie allows Torre to use Posada to replace Flaherty as soon as Johnson comes out of the game (which is exactly what he should do), and keeps Sierra, who frankly should have been left off the roster in favor of Matt Lawton, out of the game.
That would result in this line-up:
R - Derek Jeter (SS)
R - Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L - Jason Giambi (1B)
R - Gary Sheffield (RF)
L - Hideki Matsui (LF)
L - Robinson Cano (2B)
S - Bernie Williams (DH)
R - John Flaherty (C)
L - Bubba Crosby (CF)
Though what I expect to see is:
R - Derek Jeter (SS)
R - Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L - Jason Giambi (1B)
R - Gary Sheffield (RF)
L - Hideki Matsui (LF)
S - Ruben Sierra (DH)
S - Bernie Williams (CF)
R - John Flaherty (C)
L - Robinson Cano (2B)
Say it ain't so, Joe. Say it ain't so.
2) I expect he'd be starting Sierra over Bubba, putting Bernie in CF. Not that that's a good idea either.
Sierra will then start throughout the ALCS and hit .087.
C'mon ChiSox- put Boston away TODAY. Don't give them any false hopes of some magical 2004-esque comeback.
ChiSox now up 2-0. Dark clouds over Boston (literally) and no rain yet, but its certainly coming.
For either game - if the weather is bad enough to call the game, even if 5 full innings are played and someone is ahead, no way they make it official, right? (How would Boston - or any team in their position - act if they lost a rain-shortened game and were out of the playoffs as a result?) They've got to finish the game tomorrow, right?
Does anyone know what, if anything, the rule book says here?
Man, this weather sucks. It could rain for four or five days. Then what?
I'm in full agreement about never seeing Sierra play again. He was almost useless last year and he's been worse this year. I still don't understand why he was resigned - there have got to be 25 guys who played in AAA last year who could've filled his role, and performed far better.
It's times like this that makes me rethink a retractable dome in the Bronx.
I hope so. It may not be tradition, but it sure is an advantage to the team, not to mention the fans, to be able to play the game as scheduled, regardless of the weather.
On the Angels side Vlad has moved up to the 3rd. spot followed by fatty Molina and Anderson. Quinlan is in 3B and Chone is in CF
Jeter SS
A. Rodriguez
Giambi DH
Sheffield RF
Matsui LF
Cano 2B
Williams CF
T. Martinez 1B
Flaherty C
No word on whether the game will actually be played.
Man, that dude has balls! and tons of pitches. AMAZING!
atc, I was also nervous because I was rooting hard for El Duque.
I wish we had him in our bullpen. I sure don't want to face him.
Bases loaded no outs, two weak pop-ups by Varitek and Graffanino and a K to Damon, after 250 pitches. He just retired the side with Renteria K, Ortiz K and Manny ground out.
Anyway, let's hope he does it here.
Amazing how soon we forget. This guy never had great stuff. He just pitches his ass off. And when he's on - he's money.
Now you'll see the closer...
The Sox are going down. Big Papi used all of their magic just to get them to this point.
Now, Lets go Yankees!
Dang. I wanted them to at least put up a fight. They made it way too easy for Chicago.
Now its up to the Yanks to hold up their end!
Go Yanks!
http://tinyurl.com/629u5
http://image.weather.com/web/radar/us_ne_9regradar_large_usen.jpg
But it looks like they are going to start playing.
So if this thing does get rain delayed and postponed half way through, the game will continue at it's ending point at a later time, correct? There are different rain rules for playoffs I think.
You would much rather face the Red Sox than the White Sox. The starting pitching is stronger and healthier. The relief is deep. And the offense, top to bottom, is deeper. They have more speed and better defense.
One key difference between Red Sox fans and Yankee fans is that we don't feel entitled to win every year. There's work for Theo (in whom we trust) to do over the winter, but he'll get it done. Tons of help en route from the only farm system in baseball to move from the bottom third at the beginning of the year to the top third by the end of the year (Baseball America.) I'm quite happy for the White Sox and will be quite happy to see them send the Angels packing next week.
And how sick was El Duque tonight? I hope he emptied his tank if we play them.
Maybe you should go out and get a few drinks because we all know this stings.
And it looks like it's raining harder.
This is the 3rd straight year that rain has killed us. Now I see why the Boss wanted that dome.
Go home Debris and tend to your on demise...
Maybe this game will get rained out and the fact that we are already losing badly will be erased...
Good shot A-Rod!
3-0 in the first is far from insurmountable...as long as Randy settles down.
DAMN!
Dude...relaxxxxx...we'll be all right - 3 runs ain't Mt. Everest - lots of time left.
Looks like it's pouring.
Let's go Yankees!!!!!!!!!!!
We just need this offense to be Dr. Jekyl tonite. Go away Hyde, go away....!
Come on, time for the traditional Yankee 2-out rally...
Jeremy, with each passing inning, I grow more nervous - I'll be on the ledge soon enough...
Well, I don't have cable so I;m just listening to the game BUT since the Yanks have won all the playoff games this year that I have actually watched, I'm gonna head out to the bars to catch the game. When the Yanks start scoring soon, I'll look forward to getting a thank you letter from Cashman, Torre & Big Stein.
And it's getting awfully slippery out there. The last thing we need is Sheff getting injured again.
Small is warming. Oy.
Let's just hope the boys don't mail it in (like Randy).
The Halos have had a nice little stretch of mo right now, but the beauty of this game is how fortunes can, and usually do, turn in a hurry.
Our turn is coming... hang in there!
C'mon, Sheff. Be clutch!
Prove me wrong Gary!
Get the FUCKING UNIT OUT OF THERE TORRE! HE HAS NOTHING!
I have no clue why Sheff looks a shell of himself. I guess the knee was never fully healed.
Unit will be remembered for all the wrong reasons tonight....
I hope Smally can handle this. Wish Torre had put him in at the beginning of the inning, instead of waiting until there were men on.
Their only hope is to call the game at this point.
I hope I'm wrong but this is game is over for me.
However, this team IS capable of fighting back. I believed it in May and June and I have to now.
Keep hope alive!
Aaron Small is a real man's man. Gutsy as all hell. Unbelievable.
I wish Pedro was on the mound tonight.
I just hope Torre takes out Flash together with RJ.
Follow Matsui, get back in there!!
But, I've said it before and I'll say it again, I miss El Duque.
Let's get another run this inning. Go Godzilla!
The rally monkey is pooping on the Angels tonight! Come on, Yanks!
Showing his family is usually a good omen though.
(psst, Alex, a two run shot would be real clutch here.)
Double steal here
How are ya feeling, jeremyM? Ain't it great!!!
Randy, give Aaron Small your paycheck for this week.
Come on Rob ROY!!!
I COULD have the best situation right now:
Yankee game on mute with a lead.
WEEI (Boston sports talk) on the radio, listening to all the whining/tears/bitching/the ol' sky is falling Red Sux that we've known for a long time.
As long as we can keep rakin', we'll be OK tonight...
Come on D!!
What happened to Steve Finley? Did he just quit on life? He's an awesome comeback just waiting to happen... someday...
First thing's first. Get those runs back.
What a game!
Leiter to get Vlad then go to Gordon for Molina and use Flash & Mo to combine for three innings.
Runs first.
That aint gonna do it Jete.
I think they still will. Hang in there everyone !
oh my God, Boston Sports Radio is unbelievable right now...injury excuses, finger pointing (Francona, Damon....), it's great to be a Yankee fan....
Hey, there's a basehit for AROD !
http://www.bostondirtdogs.com/
randym77 - something about more money....
"...You want to put people in the seats and I'm the kind of guy who can do that. I'm looking for five plus. I'm looking for a lot. For what I bring to the table night in and night in. We know how good Manny and David are, but I also help them look real good. They make me look real good."
-- Johnny Damon immediately after a season-ending devastating loss
That said, Cano's had a great series thus far, but anyone really thing he wasn't going to swing at the first pitch there?
Man, I think it's too early for Gordon. I think he gets it done, but we should have tried for one more out with Sturtze.
Great play Mats...
I DID enjoy the sweep however....I put up with this Red Sox crap all year.....freaking trophy visited my high school (I'm a teacher)....and everyone town in this state. Tough year.
Now Leiter has to come in with bases loaded and no one out. He's used to getting out of jams, getting into them so often, but I dunno if he can make like El Duque here.
Woah! Huge K for Leiter there. Two more lefties due up, throw strikes, Al.
He got one out and Christmas comes early in the form of Finley.
Guess Mike was watching the earlier game...
and the squeeze call, is very ballsy
But I have a feeling putting him back in for another inning would be trouble. Mo for 2 innings?
I think we got what we could out of Leiter, but then again, who else can we pitch now? Mo? Embree-God no.
Anyone else tired of these "we're not intimidated by the Yankees" blurbs. Every team they play, we hear it, again and again. Like we think pro ballplayers just wilt and die against us (Arthur Rhodes excluded of course).
Go Tino!
I don't htink you go for Mo for 2 innings - although, considering that the Yanks go home tomorrow without a win, I'm not sure what you're saving him for.
Yawn.
What a terrible throw by Matsui.
Leiter vs. Figgins is cool, and his history vs. Vlad is excellent, Cabrera isn't much of a hitter. I can deal with having him pitch this inning.
. . . or not.
And Matsui did not play that perfectly, he played it terribly, if he played the rebound Figgins is at second.
I guess Proctor could come in. Ugh. Big out there.
Throw strikes Proctor, and use that curve!
Randy fucked us tonight...plain and simple. Unless he goes 22-0 next year and wins us a WS, It will not be forgotten.
Thhhpppptttt. 10-6. Ouch.
Friggin Proctor!
I like Chacon a lot so I'm going to put my faith in him, but this sucks.
Oh, what am I saying. Five runs? Jeter, Rodriguez, Giambi, Sheffield, Matsui, Cano, there's six, beeeaaaaatch.
But at this point, I think I have more faith in Chacon than I do in our supposed aces, Mussina and Johnson. RJ, you really let us down tonight.
Who said it? 6 runs isn't enough when you have Johnson on the mound. Crap. This game should have turned out so much differently. And if you look at the culprits, there are Johnson and Gordon right smack in the middle. This is what you call and implosion. We just got yanked. Oh well. One consolation - we haven't used Mo.
And that's why the rest of America hates him. Hey, somebody called that homer earlier tonight...
I'll say it again, this sucks.
I miss ROger and Andy by the way
My only shining moment tonight.
Arod (granted a gift) hitless
Gordon hurls.
How far are we away from 96 to 2000....
Z
19 frikkin' hits in a playoff game.
I still believe we're going to win this series, but this is the type of game that shakes my faith in the teams ability to come through in a close game. This was our game to win... or lose as it so happens.
For some reason, I just don't feel as confident when watching Yankee playoff games now as I did during the '96-2000 run.
Here's a prediction and I know you'll probably wanna stone me after this, but if we can compensate for hit crappy outings and we get to the aLCS, Randy Johnson is lights out.
OK, maybe too much to ask Cano to make him work...
BTW, is every single guy with the last name Rodriguez now doomed to have some sort of XYZ-Rod type nickname?
If the weather holds I'll be at the park tomorrow. If not I'll probably be at that Coliseum Books promoting Baseball Prospectus's Mind Game, which I contributed to.
I really believe we lost this one when gordon came out to play. We just let it get out of hand at that point. Another one (like game 2) that we should have won. You can't give two games away in every series and expect to win. Just ask the Red Sox.
I mean, just like in '02, this team just seems to get it done, no excuses. They don't go down swinging or looking with men in scoring position and they hit the ball the other way.
Plus, of course, they actually have a bullpen.
You watch a team like that beat your ass and you realize just how one-dimensional our team has become.
I'm not sad because I really didn't expect to get this far in the first place.
Anyway, I just hope as we rebuild, we keep in mind the value of a more balanced team than the one we have.
Another thing about a game like this that bothers me is the stigma that we haven't learned anything from the loss. Torre essentially turned Sturtze into a ROOGY and called in Gordon early. I hate playing the second-guess game with Joe because I have tremendous repect for him, but at least allow Tanyon one base runner with nobody out. Then react. When I spoke about Torre's pitching changes being crap in the playoffs, I was specifically referring to the Marlins series two years ago. Sometimes I feel like Joe is going with his heart because he's pulling for a guy. Even with our sad bullpen and banged up starting pitching, we have more than enough to work with in a situation like tonight. Tonight was not Torre over-using gordon, but more flash fizzling. He just choked. We need to find the lesson in this loss and learn from it or we'll be watching the ALCS with Dead Sox next week.
So when do they put out the '53 series etc. on DVD? That's the stuff I want, things I didn't get to see the first time.
Along with the same at-bat from Boggs in '96, though I for the life of me can't remember the scenario of that one.
P.S. Pardon the typos and whatnot, beers and nicorette do not mix. 3 1/2 days w/out a Marlboro Red. Woo Hoo!!
I was wondering whether Joe was counting on some magic transformation in Johnson's stuff because he had no business coming back out there.
But it was nice to see Small be so clutch, and Canoe's play was sweet. That's something positive on the night.
I have a real tough time disagreeing with any of your posts. Man, we just see it all pretty much the same way.
Of course it's disappointing and gut-wrenching to lose like this but, let's face it: L.A. can do things that our roster is simply not capable of doing. Period. They can execute the hit-and-run and every variation of the sacrifice, they produce mostly productive outs, they can go to the opposite field, they can steal if need be, and they rarely give away at-bats. And I haven't even begun to mention their lights-out bullpen, solid starting rotation and above-average defense. Have I left anything out (I tend to think that their manager is a bit on the overrated side, but, then again, so is ours)?
The Angels are precisely the type of team that give the Yankees fits because they are solid in EVERY aspect of their game and, as you said, the Yankees are crippled by their one-dimensional, two three-run homers-and-pray-for-rain-dogma.
Living out in Cali (not by choice - I miss NY), I get back East every summer and usually take in a few at the stadium while at home. I thought it was just my cynical nature, but, over the past several years, I've observed Yankee crowds growing increasingly more corporate. I say corporate as opposed to affluent because of the incessant "clienting" and shmoozing by the business elite. I recall going to games as a kid and overhearing old guys (they were actually probably about 40 back then, but, then again, I was only 10) kibitzing over in-game strategy or about whether Mantle was a better defensive CFer than Joe D. Now the stadium's replete with Wall Street shop talk spewing forth from glorified used car salesmen in 150.00 shirts.
I can only imagine the scenario described above will only get worse with the new Yankee stadium. I couldn't believe all of the empty seats. The lead was only 4 runs, geez. The Joe Six Packs are getting fazed out of major sports as far as I can see.
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