Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The big question entering tonight's match-up between Chien-Ming Wang and John Lackey concerns whom Joe Torre should start at first base, designated hitter and in center field. I'll take the third part first. Torre should start Bernie Williams in center, there's really not much debate to be had. Wang's ground ball rates are so extreme that Williams could play the entire game without having more than a chance or two in the field. Most of the action Bernie's likely to see will come on base hits, most of which either shoot through the holes to the corner outfielders, or will be grounders up the middle (assuming they can get past Wang himself) that will be hits long before Bernie gets to them, and which Bernie will be charging anyway, reducing the length of whatever throw he'll have to make. Thus there's no need to force the Yankee line-up to carry Bubba's bat against a man many consider the Angels' best pitcher entering this series.
Before I get to the 1B/DH situation, let's explore that belief. Among the four men in the Angels' ALDS rotation, Lackey is first in K/9 (8.57) and homers (a mere 13), and second in ERA (3.44), but last in BB/9 (3.09) and WHIP (1.33, tied with Jarrod Washburn). None of those numbers are terrible. What they really tell us is that there's no clear ace on this staff. I still believe Bartolo Colon has the most potential to be dominant, as he was last night after the first two innings. An argument could even be made for Paul Byrd, who despite missing the entire 2003 season due to injury, has been a top-line pitcher ever since his break-out campaign with the Royals in 2002 at the age of 31.
What has everyone so excited about Lackey is likely his age and potential for improvement. Just 26, Lackey experienced a dramatic up-tick in his strikeout rate this year to combine with a two-year decrease in home runs allowed from 31 in 2003 to just 13 this year. He also recovered from a shaky April to post a 2.57 second-half ERA, going 8-1 over the season's final three months
That said, I doubt Jason Giambi had those stats in mind when he remarked after last night's game that Lackey was sure to win a Cy Young award if he kept improving his game the way he has. Nor do I think Giambi was basing that evaluation on his personal experiences hitting against Lackey. Giambi is 10 for 20 with a double and a pair of homers against Lackey, which is one reason I think the Yankees can afford to stick him at DH tonight. Giambi's production may decrease when he sits between at-bats, but his success against Lackey should counteract that. Meanwhile, though Tino Martinez hasn't actually been all that much better than Giambi in the field this year (91 Rate to Giambi's 88, with both men at -8 Fielding Runs Against Average), the sheer volume of ground balls the Angels are likely to hit tonight will likely expose Giambi's inferiority in the field, no matter how slight. For evidence, all we need to do is look back to Wang's last start.
The only problem with starting Tino at first is that unlike with the centerfield situation, where Bubba can come in as a defensive replacement if Wang hands a lead to the bullpen (and make no mistake, Bubba should come in as soon as Torre takes the ball from his starter unless the Yankees are behind—Bernie has hit a solid 5 for 17 against Lackey with two doubles and a homer), Torre can't move Giambi into the field in the late innings without sacrificing the DH. Still, I think it's worth a shot. Yes, Ruben Sierra has gone 3 for 8 against lackey with a home run, but that makes even the other tiny samples I've quoted seem large. What's more, the Ruben Sierra the Yankees have this postseason is not the same one that produced that line against Lackey, even if the Angel starter has only been in the league since 2002. Sierra missed most of the season due to a pair of injuries and has yet to find his stroke since returning. It would be a Scioscia-level mistake for Torre to put Ruben's name in the line-up regardless of how well he matches up against a given pitcher.
Tonight will be Lackey's first postseason start since his Game Seven win as a rookie in the 2002 World Series. He's faced the Yankees twice this year, picking up a win both times and assembling this line: 11 2/3 IP, 12 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 HR, 5 BB, 12 K. The one thing to watch out for with Lackey facing the Yankees is that the Yanks have been able to make him work, both times driving him from the game in the sixth due to a pitch count over 100. Indeed, Lackey is the one Angel starter that the Yankees can effectively work the count against (Byrd, for example, is almost Wellsian in his refusal to issue a base on balls). The only problem there is that the Angel bullpen is so dominant that the Yankees actually decrease their chances of scoring by driving Lackey from the game after the fifth inning.
As for Wang, this is not only his first postseason start, but also the first time he's face the Angels. Of course, as a rookie, Wang's season has been full of firsts, and he's taken them all in stride. The lone exception being a brief bout of nerves in the first inning of his previous start against the Red Sox, but, other than a brief issue with his control, he pitched well enough to win that game, holding the majors' best offense to three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. My only concern is that the Angels are exactly the type of team that can cause trouble for a groundball pitcher such as Wang. They make a lot of contact, which is fine as Wang pitches to contact, but they also have a lot of speed throughout their line-up. The only team that really managed to get to Wang this season was the Devil Rays. Of course the D-Rays got to all of the Yankee pitchers, but against Wang it was their speed, not their power that was the problem. The Devil Rays were the only team other than the Cardinals (against whom Wang was abandoned by his defense) to collect more than a hit per inning against Wang this season.
Game time is 10 p.m. eastern. If the Yanks can pull out another win they'll return home with a chance to sweep with Randy Johnson on the mound.
Update:
Here are the line-ups. Torre got it right again. Scioscia drops Erstad behind Molina and Rivera, but there appears to be some confusion as to where Anderson and Rivera are starting [Update: Anderson's in left again, Erstad is actually hitting ahead of Rivera, cleary YES's Angels sources are not as reliable as their Yankee sources]:
Yankees
R - Derek Jeter (SS)
R - Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L - Jason Giambi (DH)
R - Gary Sheffield (RF)
L - Hideki Matsui (LF)
L - Robinson Cano (2B)
S - Bernie Williams (CF)
S - Jorge Posada (C)
L - Tino Martinez (1B)
R - Chien-Ming Wang (P)
Angels
S - Chone Figgins (3B)
R - Orlando Cabrera (SS)
L - Garret Anderson (LF)
R - Vlad Guerrero (RF)
R - Bengie Molina (C)
L - Darin Erstad (1B)
R - Juan Rivera (DH)
L - Steve Finley (CF)
L - Adam Kennedy (2B)
R - John Lackey (P)
Hi Joe! Crush the Angels tonight.
So who's staying up to watch tonight? I'm going to bed at 11 pm, gotta get up at 6:30 and this game isn't too important.
With Wang, you're right that Tampa's speed was problematic, but along with that, I thought the Tropicana turf had a lot to do with the issues he had. The one loss he had at home, he gave up two homers to Cantu and was also let down by a Jeter error.
I hope the Angels don't accomplish anything like what the Rays did all season with Wang, or (as in the case of the last win against the Rays), I hope we can find a way to nick Lackey and at least one member of the bullpen. I don't think we'll be shutting down the Halos tonight.
I hope I'm wrong and I'll stay positive, but that's my feeling...
Bill, excellent point. Most of my memories of Torre making particularly astute moves are from the postseason. Then again, there was Game 4 of the 2003 WS, that was a disaster for more reasons than Jeff Weaver.
Tocho, funny you mention the jet lag. Yesterday's game was at 8:00 EST, which might have helped the Yanks in the jet lag dept. Tonight's is 10:00 EST, which just might have them dragging some. Hopefully they all slept in this morning.
RBJ & Max, thanks.
Cliff, was that line of thought leading somewhere?
Supposedly during the 1996 playoffs Torre was about to (or not about to) make a move because he was thinking in terms of the regular season, where you have to manage your pen for the long season. But Zim said WTF, you have to manage to win tonight's game and always tonight's game.
So yes, I think Torre has a quicker hook and somewhat less loyalty to his vets' playing time come the postseason. Take a look at last night where he yanked Leiter after 2 batters instead of trying to eke another out or two out of him. The last 2 times I saw Leiter out there, Joe left him inthe game a little too long and ended up paying for it.
Yes! Sox-Sox are now tied up.
5-4 ChiSox
BTW the bottom part of the line-up is speedy Bernie, JoPo and Tino. Lots of DP's.
3-run HR by the White Sox 5-4 lead in the 5th. Take that you fat bastard!!
And can we give this "small ball" shit a rest, how many hom runs did they hit last night?
Manny coming up, they shouldn't let this guy beat them. They are bringing in Jenks who can pump-up fastballs.
OTW and more importantly LET'S GO YANKEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES!!!!!!!!
Jon: The great Joe Morgan everybody.
Joe: Also, Bay Area, My friend Barry, blah blah blah, Billy Beane wrote a book that's wrong, small ball, Big Papi MVP, blah blah blah.
Jon: You never CEASE to amaze me! Ladies and gentlemen, the GREAT Joe Morgan.
Joe: That's right.
1) was that Wil Nieves talking to Cano? He's traveling with the team?
2) was that A on the mound there yesterday?
Also, what was Rodriguez doing swinging at the first pitch after Jeter worked Lackey over?
That said, there are so many little mannerisms of his I'll miss when he's gone. The way he lifted up his hands to take that inside curve for a strike is one of them.
2nd Base: Edge A's
//"... Kennedy has come up big in past postseason series, and you have to worry about Cano's tendency to chase, well, everything."//
Keep hackin', Robbie, keep hackin'.
What a gun he has.
No you weren't. You were just wrong.
Cano can hit, but his nonchalance in the field really irks me. C'mon this is the POSTSEASON !
Speaking of which, anybody notice last night how they list all the #s where Bernie leads all-time postseason and then basically trash him or at least dismiss the accomplishment, cause Mantle had only World Series to rack up the stats--then mention the very next inning how Jeter leads all-time postseason in hits, discussing which fact they practically have orgasms right there in the booth ?
Nothing against Jeter, but Bernie has been every damn bit as important to the Yanks dynasty, and dosn't get the credit--
But he still spaces out on defense. Sheesh. This inning should be over, dammit.
Wonder what he said to Wang?
Also, Cano does have a bad case of Soriano-itis. I wonder if they take infield practice in Columbus or Newark. Doesn't seem likely.
It's like 28. Nothing to worry about.
Jorge got his game back in time for the playoffs. Now we need a little thunder from his bat. (Not that he didn't have an above average season for a MLB catcher, but not the usual Jorgie standard)
Gameday showed that pitch low and slightly away. Take a strike and then let your AB begin. Bad baseball from a 37 year old veteran who should know better.
Cano redemtion.
Mikeplugh, no, you don't hit a man on purpose in a one-run playoff game.
Thank God they forgot about OBP.
For those who are curious, the Angels have been shut out six times this year, twice by 1-0 scores.
I don't think we're going to shut them out tonight, though.
You may pitch around him anyway, so why not take your moment to get payback. I'm not saying that's what happened but it's not such a gimme that it wasn't either.
Let's go, Yanks! A one-run lead is too close for comfort.
JUAN FUCKING RIVERA?
By the way, fireworks should be banned from ballparks. This smoke is ridiculous.
Time to break through against Lackey (85 pitches thus far) and make these late innings a little less stressful.
Thank you, Bernie!
That was one of the most bizarre plays Ive seen in weeks. Routine flyball and Finley is no where near it.
Posada is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Slow.
Well, Wang is doing his job. Hopefully the offense can get some more runs on the board. Like, now.
Damn, inning over, crapola...bad night for Jetes at the plate
Big bats coming up. I dont like this at all.
Damn, inning over, crapola...bad night for Jetes at the plate
Fucking A-Rod damned well better make up for this.
Posada must be jealous.
Outsmarted my Mike Sciocia, Jesus!
You think Lackey was that tough tonight?
We just need one more run guys, pitching just has to bear down. This next inning we will get something going.
Hope not, because 71 through 6 is fantastic, especially 69% strikes.
I would love Wang to go 9 if neccessary, no?
Thanks a ton A-Rod.
MVP my ass.
In fact, I expect the entire team to do that. Is that so much to ask? Get the occasional hit even at the expense of taking a walk (gasp)and dont botch ground balls?
No squeeze, please no.
I cant believe this team sometimes. I really cant.
They invent ways to lose sometimes.
And now Lieter coming in? ugh. I can't see the Yanks getting two runs off Escobar/Rodriguez
Leiter is coming in.
A-rod is trying too hard. He didn't have a very good post-season last year, and I think he's a little anxious.
Never say die.
Wang only has stuff for 85 pitches? Ai...
Leiter does the job again. Good stuff.
Well, only way to redeem ourselves is to do it now, so lets see what we can do
It's going to be on replays endlessly the next few days until he does something to redeem himself.
Max, you hit the nail on the head. The off day tomorrow is going to be brutal for Rodriguez.
This is f'ed up, but, one it's not over yet, and two we got the split we needed in LA if we whiff.
The Yankees won 4 titles and made 6 World Series on that principle. Everytime someone miscued we jumped all over them. So be it. Two games in Yankee Stadium coming right up.
Halos meet The Big Unit.
Though everyone feels poor Wang got robbed, he did contribute to the meltdown with that bad throw to first, and his meatball pitch to Cabrera. It's not like he got beat by a weak groundout or a dying quail over a drawn in infield...his last pitch was right in Cabrera's happy zone.
Posada is key here. Has to get on somehow...
Fairly or not, what most people remember most about A-Rod during the collapse is "slapgate." Not what he hoped he would be remembered for, I'm sure.
Hey, at least my Game 4 tickets just became valid.
Tomorrow I'm taking a break from all this. You'll have my game post in the morning and that'll be it 'til Friday from me.
So Friday's lineup should look like game 1's, no?
I don't worry about our ability to score and to pitch, I worry about the mental breakdowns...this was just like the first game at Fenway last week (with Wang on the mound as well). Put it behind us and hope that we're back to being crisp at home.
This series ends Saturday (weather permitting).
Jeez, Cabrera...makes me sick man, that fool is garbage.
plate in crucial dituations. Actually A-Rod didn't do bad at the plate today. I didn't realize he walked 3 times and was officially 0/1 at the plate
first, we have too many errors... it's postseason already, and we can see how one error can cost a game by today's Sox game
if there werent these three errors, the scoreboard could have been 2-1 or 3-1 with the w for us
second, where did out 200 million pay-roll line-up go? Jeter was 0-5, A-Rod 0-2 with 3 BB, Jiambi has 1 h out of 3 w/ one strikeout, which isnt that bad, but Sheff was also silent for the night. in addition to that, we were 1 out of 9 when runners are on scoring position, which mean it could have been much more scores on the board for us.
Wang was great in this game, groundballs after groundballs, if those error werent made and we have a little bit more help from the line-up, we should have been going home with 2-0 instead of a tie!
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