Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The Yankees and Orioles were originally scheduled to play the game being made up tonight at Camden Yards on Wednesday June 29. Instead, the game was washed away by rain, which seemed very similar to what was happening to the Yankees' season at the time. The night before, Joe Torre had brought Mike Stanton in to pitch the bottom of the tenth inning against the top of the Orioles' order despite not yet having used Mariano Rivera in the game (Rivera had thrown just two innings over the previous week). Brian Roberts crushed Stanton's first pitch into the left field stands to give the Orioles a 4-3 win and drop the Yankees' June record to 12-14.
During the two days of inactivity that followed (the first due to the rain-out, the second a travel day as the team headed to Detroit to start a weekend series against the Tigers), the Yankees designated relievers Mike Stanton and Paul Quantrill for assignment. When they returned to action on Friday night in Detroit, the Tigers and their 22-year-old ace Jeremy Bonderman handed the Yankees and their 41-year-old putative ace Randy Johnson a 10-2 loss that dropped the New Yorkers' overall record to 39-39. After stumbling out of the gate with an 11-19 (.367) record, the Yankees appeared to have righted their ship in May with a ten-game winning streak, but by the time Tino Martinez grounded out to Bonderman to complete that July 1 loss in Detroit, most of the optimism that streak had brought had dissipated.
Since then, however, the Yankees have gone 52-25 (.675), and now, with exactly one week left in the regular season, find themselves tied with the Boston Red Sox for first in the American League East with the opportunity to tie the idle Indians for the Wild Card lead with a win tonight. It's been an absolutely stunning turn around, and now, with just seven games left in the season, it's time for the payoff.
At this point the final three games between the Yankees and Red Sox in Boston are all but guaranteed to mean something. While the Yankees play four games against the Orioles in Baltimore between now and Thursday, the Red Sox and Blue Jays will play four in Fenway. Even if one team collapses and falls three games behind the other by Friday, that club will still have the opportunity to tie for the division lead with a weekend sweep. More likely, the two teams will enter Friday night's contest separated by no more than a single game.
That said, just about anything could happen this week. The Blue Jays, who have been right around .500 all year, have been playing much better baseball than the Orioles over the past few weeks, losing two of three at home to the Yankees two weekends ago, but only being outscored by just a single run, then outscoring the Mariners by a lone run during a four-game split last week before playing the Yankees hard in another three-game series loss this past weekend, winning the second game 7-4 and holding a lead in the seventh inning of the series finale yesterday.
The Orioles, meanwhile, have lost their last eight games and ten of their last eleven, including a four-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees in the Bronx last week. Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro and Brian Roberts will not play again this season for a variety of reasons all of which involve injury and the team has gone 20-43 (.317) since July 18.
To that end, the Yankees would appear to have the advantage over the next four days. Still, just because the Blue Jays are better than the Orioles, doesn't mean the Red Sox are any less capable of sweeping them, particularly in Boston, where the Red Sox have posted a frightening 50-24 (.676) record thus far this season (note the similarity to the Yankees overall record since July 1--could these teams be more evenly matched?). The good news is that the Jays are 9-5 against the Red Sox thus far this season, including a 3-2 record in Fenway. Equally encouraging is the fact that the Orioles have been as bad at home as on the road this year (35-42 in Baltimore, 35-43 elsewhere), and, while the Yankees are just two games over .500 on the road this season, they are 7-2 in their last three road series (against the Jays, Rays and A's).
Of course all these numbers and records mean very little in a sport with as much day-to-day volatility as baseball. That's why they play 'em, and that's why my stomach is twisting in knots as I write these ostensibly encouraging words. Tonight, Randy Johnson makes his penultimate start of the regular season, the final game being a doomsday match-up with Curt Schilling on FOX this Saturday. His opponent is Rodrigo Lopez, who made the Big Unit earn his pay last week, despite getting beat around by the Yanks in two of three previous starts on the year.
Baltimore Orioles
Manager: Sam Perlozzo
General Manager: Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan
Ballpark (2004 park factors): Oriole Park at Camden Yards (104/103)
Current Roster:
1B – Alejandro Freire (R)/Walter Young (L)
2B – Bernie Castro
SS – Miguel Tejada
3B – Melvin Mora
C – Geronimo Gil
RF – Jay Gibbons
CF – Luis Matos
LF – Eric Byrnes (R)/B.J. Surhoff (L)
DH – Javy Lopez
Bench:
L – David Newhan (CF/UT)
R – Chris Gomez (1B/IF)
R - Sal Fasano (C)
R - Eli Whiteside (C)
R - Ed Rogers (IF)
S - Brian Roberts (2B)*
L - Rafael Palmeiro (1B)*
*out for the year
Rotation:
R – Rodrigo Lopez
L – Bruce Chen
R – Daniel Cabrera
R – John Maine
L - Erik Bedard
Bullpen:
L – B.J. Ryan
R – Todd Williams
R – Jorge Julio
L – Steve Kline
L - Tim Byrdak
R - Chris Ray
R - Jason Grimsley
R - James Baldwin
L - Eric DuBose
R - Aaron Rakers
DL:
R - Sammy Sosa (OF)
R – Kurt Ainsworth (60-day)
L – Val Majewski (OF) (60-day)
R - Eli Marrero (OF) (60-day)
L - John Parrish (60-day)
Typical Line-up
S – Bernie Castro (2B)
R – Melvin Mora (3B)
R – Miguel Tejada (SS)
L – Jay Gibbons (1B)
R - Javy Lopez (DH)
R - Alejandro Friere (1B)/L - B.J. Surhoff (LF)
R - Eric Byrnes (LF)/L - Walter Young (1B)
R – Luis Matos (CF)
R - Geronimo Gil (C)
If you check the Orioles record, if you can find such splits, you'll note that their road record, as of June 1, was much stronger than their home. Since that time, they've been awful on the road and simply bad at home
On the road last week, the Birds lost four straight to the Yankees, by a total of six runs. Two of their three losses to the Sox over the weekend were battles.
Neither the Orioles or the Jays appear to have quit. While I fully expect that both they Yanks and Sox will win three games before their head to head, I can see where either or both series could be split.
Tonight's game, with Unit vs. Lopez should be a gimme for the visitors.
The Jays have played the Sox tough, the two main culprits being Reed Johnson and Orlando Hudson, who turns into Ty Cobb when playing Boston. Hudson's absence this week is huge for the Sox.
Just went to the stats:
Johnson .387/.871/1.312, 3 hr, 15 rbi
Hudson .326/.435/.761 0 hr, 7 rbi, 10 r in 11 games
OK, so Hudson doesn't turn into Ty Cobb, but he does turn into Charlie Gehringer.
Torre named Small the starter for Thursday. Of course a rain out today could muck everything up.
Its raining here in the greater Boston area. I'm sure they will wait for as long as possible to call the game. However, unless its been changed, there is a Boston city ordinance that stops games at 1 AM. So, I'm not sure to pull for a rainout/Sox-Jays doubleheader, or not.
http://image.weather.com/web/radar/us_dca_closeradar_medium_usen.jpg
They're predicting showers until 1am.
I don't seem to recall an NYC or Bronx ordinance on how late games can run. Can anyone verify it, either way?
BTW, mea culpa - obviously we're in Baltimore tonight, so does anyone know if Baltimore has a city ordinance re: how late games can go?
(much love cliff and alex)
Isn't there a baseball rule that you can't start an inning after midnight or 1 am?
I see there's more rain forcast for Thursday...
Unfortunate. Here's hoping the rain holds off for the rest of the week (er, rest of the season).
However, one can only hope that the Boston bullpen gets some serious work on Tuesday, which have a ripple effect.
But it's a blessing for us to go tonight. There's no way tomorrow's starter, Mussina, can go on three. I wouldn't want Johnson to do so either.
What a stroke of luck. This could really fuck up Boston's shit.
We HAVE to win this game. I know, it's like that every day, but ESPECIALLY this one.
It's starting to pour. :-(
Obviously I hope none of this comes to pass. I want that weekend series to go down as envisioned.
http://weather.yahoo.com/img/us_bwi_metroradar_medium_usen.html
Allright! Game on! C'mon Sheff, time to uncork another laser beam!
Rainouts are just one more reason why Wakefield is more valuable than his numbers -- the guy can pitch on short rest, or almost no rest, right?
As for tonight - get a big lead, pay off the umps George, and call the game after 5 innings !
That drive from Byrnes had a little too much drama in it. Now let's get some baserunners!
MVP? We could use a run . . .
No, actually, I agree.
Matsui
ARod
Sheff
Giambi
Posada
Cano
Bernie
Bubba
With Giambi flailing behind him, A-Rod is looking at a 4 walk night.
Give the guy some freakin protection in the line-up.
I was thinking the exact same thing: Giambi in Sept = Giambi in April/May. Lots of called 3rd strikes.
Cano almost fouled that out of the park.
Oooh! Tried the squeeze! At long last! (safety, taken for a ball)
Not RJ.
Now let's blow it open!
Meanwhile, the rain continues to fall hard in Boston. Clearly the right call to postpone the game.
This is certainly better than 0-0 or being behind, but there's something about a big Yankee lead and lots of outs left that seems to invite boatloads of anxiety. (Then again, more O's errors like that one by Frede and I can breathe easier)
I just got back from a night class in a building directly across from Fenway, and the Sox fans are positively apoplectic at not being able to play tonight...a really obnoxious bandwagoner sitting next to me said it was a conspiracy against the Sox by MLB.
Also, after I note how RJ could move into the top 10 in Yankee SO seasons...he has a grand total of 0 so far tonight...shoooot - I'll take a W over a K anyday.
All right, I'm hitting the sack for sure now - I got a good feeling...& lord forgive me for the things that I will do if there's an Embree type meltdown tonight.
Btw, I heard Ramiro was shut down for the year - is that true? If so, why not call up another arm just in case you need innings? Just a thought. Night
Meanwhile, now that the game's official, I can say that the Baltimore radar shows nothing in the area:
http://weather.yahoo.com/img/us_bwi_metroradar_medium_usen.html
(1) the yankees will lose tomorrow. i just feel like everytime they have a blowout win, they lose the next day.
(2) joe will use bull(crap)pen (embree, franklin, proctor, etc) - and this game will end up being 11-10 with Mariano coming in to save the game.
"Prior to last night, the Yankees had run up a double-digit run total in thirteen games this season. In six of the games that followed such an outburst, the Yankees scored fewer than five runs, but in six others they scored more than five runs (in the one remaining game they scored exactly five), twice scoring in double-digits again the next day and once scoring nine runs and following that with a fifteen-spot the next day. While it may not look impressive compared to the nearly 14 runs the team scored on average in their thirteen highest-scoring games, the Yankees have scored an average of 5.62 runs in the games immediately following those outbursts, with a median total of five runs. That average is actually higher than their overall season average of 5.39 runs per game."
The Yankees won that day following a 17-run outburst. Since then they've twice scored ten-plus runs, both times winning the next day.
Position Change: Escalona moves to SS
Position Change: Lawton moves to RF
Defensive Substitution: (RF) Sheffield replaced by (1B) Martinez
Out: Gomez strikes out. 1 out.
Out: Mora flies out to CF. 2 outs.
Out: Tejada flies out to CF. 3 outs.
The O scrubs are probably more motivated and perhaps more dangerous than the regular O's...
"He's learning," says Mel.
Let's hope there's no letdown, and that the doubleheader takes a lot out of the Sox pitching (at a minimum)...one or two losses wouldn't be too bad either.
In the next week, barring some miraculous recovery to June 22, 2002 (See below, I'm obsessed with this game), Embree should NOT make the post-season.
Respectfully,
Paul in Boston
YANKEES 7TH: B. Williams doubled to center; EMBREE REPLACED
TRAMMELL (PITCHING);
Ventura grounded out (shortstop to first); Spencer was walked
intentionally; WHITE BATTED FOR VANDER WAL; White struck out;
Castillo grounded out (second to first); 0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 2 LOB.
Yankees 1, Padres 0.
YANKEES 8TH: Lilly struck out; Soriano was called out on
strikes; Jeter struck out; 0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB. Yankees 1,
Padres 0.
YANKEES 9TH: Giambi struck out; B. Williams struck out; Ventura
struck out; 0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0 LOB. Yankees 1, Padres 0.
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