My brother says: "if you can't beat TB, you don't belong in the playoff".

Maybe he's right....

Cliff.....

"In turn, the Devil Rays clinched the season series, while the Yankees' opportunity to reverse course against these pesky Rays slipped away, possibly along with their postseason hopes."

C'mon babe. That's too much of a pessimistic stretch. This game was a disappointment, but we still lead the Indians by a half game and Oakland by 1.5 games. Maybe it was one of the first nails in the coffin for the AL East today, that much I'll give you, but we're in the driver's seat for the wild card and I don't believe we're going to give up the small lead we have when all's said and done.

We will certainly squirm until the last day, but this game wasn't a breaker. Our schedule is fairly cushy from here on out. We have the Sox on the slate, which isn't fun, but we should be able to win enough games against the rest of the awful AL East teams to hold off the WC challengers.

I say, we're in the playoffs. Write it down. Mike Plugh called it on September 7th, 2005. Yanks in the playoffs.

I'm more confident against the Red Sox than against the Devil Rays. We have a winning record against the Red Sox this season, including taking 3 of 4 in the last series. We haven't won a single series against Tampa Bay yet.

The only problem is, after the Red Sox, we play Tampa Bay again. At Tampa.

I was at Yankee Stadium for games 2 and 3 of the Memorial Day weekend meetup between the Sox and Yanks. While there, having the opportunity to chat with numerous Yankee fans, I learned that it is the opinion of most that A-Rod is at his best when the Yanks have a big lead. On the other hand, you could probably count on one hand the number of people in Fenway last night who didn't fully expect Big Papi to deliver the goods. The only real surprise was that Ortiz hit the ball over the bullpen rather than into the Green Monster seats.

While there is not much question that A-Rod's gaudy offensive numbers suggest that he is the best hitter in the American League, there is also little question that Ortiz is the Most Valuable Player.

On the defensive side, a quick glance over at BP will tell you that A-Rod, thanks to his early season errors and lack of range to his left, still sports an RAA of -9, suggesting that his work at third has been pretty hideous in 2005. (BTW, in 222 career games at first base, Ortiz has managed to show a positive RAA (1)).

debris,

I take it you haven't watched a majority of the Yankees' games this year if you still believe that Rodriguez is a bust in tough situations. While many Yankee fans might have had that perception in May, I'm sure they don't have it now.

Also, after a shaky start of the season in the field, he has been excellent. He went two months without making an error. Last I checked third base was a significantly more difficult position to play that first base. (By the way, Ortiz has 43 at bats as a first baseman this year, and 464 as a DH, so I wouldn't get carried away with his +1 RAA rating.)

Ortiz is a great hitter and the most valuable Red Sox this year. He is also one of the great clutch hitters in the game. If a ballgame is on the line I'd have no problem with you picking Ortiz over Rodriguez, or half-a-dozen of the great players in the game. But this isn't the most clutch award it's the most valuable. And unless Ortiz's numbers are astronomically better than the second best player in the league--ala Barry Bonds--I just don't see how you make a part-time player the MVP. When you don't play the field, you are only playing half of the game.

Again, no full-time DH--which is what Ortiz is, let's face it--has won the award. Maybe Ortiz will be the first. But Rodriguez is a better fielder, and a significantly better base-runner. And overall, he's a better hitter. If you think he's a washout in the clutch, you are mistaken. He's not the force Ortiz is, but he's come through with some major hits for the Yanks this year. You could look it up.

Alex,

No, I haven't watched a majority of the Yankees games and, as I stated, those perceptions of Yankee fans were from May.

I still question A-Rods defense, if the BP RAA numbers are correct. If I recall, he'd earned a -5 over the first five weeks of the season and an additional -4 over the past 15, still subpar, though not as bad as the first weeks. I have a hard time believing that a third baseman could field well over a 15 week stretch and still net a -9, a pretty difficult negative number for a third baseman to achieve. (Jeter, by the way, who has made a career of making routine plays looking spectacular, has turned his game around. After a vast improvement to a -2 last year, BP has him at +7 this year.) To me, in the 30 or so Yankee games I've seen, Rodriguez has looked fabulous. But the numbers, if you buy RAA, suggest otherwise. As for not making an error for two months, you know as well as I do that 12 extra outs will bring a number up more than 9 errors will bring it down.

As for Ortiz, the +1 is a career number is 222 games. While I still wouldn't show him where his glove is hidden, the number suggests something short of FEMA-level incompetence.

Ortiz, by the way, has shown that he is a pretty good bunter lately. Why he and Giambi don't bunt at least once a day is beyond me.

I agree with Alex and many others - I feel more angry than anything else. The kind of errors made last night are inexcusable at this point in the season.

What gets me most is that Tampa Bay - the laughing stock of MLB - has made the Yanks look a like a bunch of losers. Pride goeth before the fall, and I know Tampa is a better team than ever before, but c'mon!

Mattingly should start a Katrina jar - everytime a batter comes up with a runner on, or comes up with the game on the line, swinging at the first pitch costs $500. Swinging at the first pitch and making an out costs $1000. At the very least, the people in the Gulf Coast area will get some needed $$.

And finally, if I ever see a line-up including Flaherty and Sierra and Cano again, I may completely lose it. We cannot afford to give up 9+ outs a game.

A-Rod is hands-down the MVP.

I agree with Alex.

I fear Ortiz at the plate, more than any opposing player, but A-Rod has been a rock for the Yankees and has one more than his fair share of games on his own this year. In fact, I think I posted this some weeks ago, A-Rod leads the AL in game-winning RBIs.

He also is a well above average 3B-man. I don't give much creedance to fielding stats of any kind wither. Unlike hitting stats, which generally hold very steady, fielding stats rely way too much on official scorers, player reputations, and plain old bad hops.

Yes, a hitter may get a few bloop hits that help him win a batting crown, but way too often you see a great fielder barehand a ball while fading away and the ball ends up in the seats. An above average player like A-Rod will make that play far more often than most other players, and he will save his pitcher a dozen or so runs over the course of the year.

Average fielders won't even attempt that play because they know they have no shot and instead eat the ball. The pitcher may end up allowing the runner to score eventually and the game is lost. A-Rod will save that run 9 times out of 10 and maybe butcher the 10th ball for an error.

Degree of difficulty isn't exactly a measurable science, but when you see a guy play everyday you know how he stacks up better than a stat sheet will demonstrate.

Anyway, I'm supporting A-Rod for MVP. Giambi, Tino, Jeter, and Matsui have taken turns carrying the ballclub this year, but A-Rod has been Big Man on Campus for virtually the entire year.

Sorry about all the spelling mistakes. Too much sake tonight.

OK, I've come off the ledge.

I'll take Bill Parcells comments: "Just get to the dance and see what happens"

My son picked a sports headline to present to his fourth grade class today and he'll be talking about A-Rod being selected as the AL Player of the Month for August. Going in front of a mostly Red Sox fan base, he's loaded for bear with all the stats to back it up, and I made sure to tell him to note that he was picked over Ortiz. I agree with Sully that A-Rod is hands down the MVP this year!

Now that the Devil Rays have the season series locked up, maybe we can actually beat the last place team and win a few because we cannot afford to lose anymore to them!

The BP Postseason odds report has the wildcard chase down to a two team race between the Yanks and the Indians, with the Indians ahead (based essentially on prior run differential and upcoming strength of schedule). I don't take the percentages too literally, but the fact that Oakland and the Angels are at 2-3% for the wildcard is pretty revealing about the dynamics of the race -- given their 4 head to head games and overall tough schedule, it's going to be extremely hard for both of them to play well enough that the loser of the two makes the wildcard.

So, little consolation that the A's lost last night. If you're scoreboard watching, watch the Indians.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Not that it means anything in the grand scheme of things, but can anyone explain how Rivera was charged with an earned run last night? I realize Gathright is pretty fast, but I don't think he scores from second on a ground ball out. I remember a scoring mistake from the 2000 World Series (again with Rivera, this time a run that was initially incorrectly scored as unearned) that wasn't corrected in the stats until a day or two later, so I'm waiting to see if that happens here, but maybe I'm just wrong. Anyone?

I think they were saying he advanced to third on the ground out by Lugo. Then scores on the infield single by Crawford with 2 outs(If Lugo was forced at first.)

I almost can't believe some of the negativity in some of the posts today. This is baseball and in 162 games or whatever sheer probability says you're going to get flukey sounding results in some of the head to head numbers with some teams just like golden glovers occasionally make inopportune errors. It's human nature that we don't mentally recall and make a big deal when Jeter makes a costly error because he's inscribed in our minds as a great Yankee player but when Cano makes an error we forget about the numerous fine double plays he's turned when he was also hitting great.

As to Ortiz sure, he's got a lot of spectacular clutch home runs but the fact is the reason Cashman wouldn't take him despite the boss' astute coveting of Ortiz still stands. He's such a disaster at first base that Boston virtually stopped playing him in the field so any statistics to the contrary don't mean much to me. The Yankees team is constructed with so many great stars that having to carry an exclusive DH like Ortiz is just losing too much batting power Just think of the times Matsui or others couldn't play the field for a while because of trasient injuries and were on hitting tears at the same time. That wouldn't be possible if we had someone like Ortiz as a virtual permanent DH.

I don't have the same desperation as some because I've felt for quite a while now that our WC chances were far better and more realistic than beating Boston given Boston's hot streak and compartatively easier schedule at the time in question. So when I stick with that and focus on the WC yesterday was not that bad a day. We remain on top and while Cleveland will likely be a threat to the end , I feel a lot better that both CA teams lost last night than I feel bad that Cleveland won. The starting pitching staff has been a demolition derby and we're still a slight favorite in the WC particularly as only one of the CA teams is going to be in the WC at the end while the other takes the division. The yankees have come back from oblivion with guys like Chacon and Small and even sometimes Leiter filling a huge void. Wang was sensational and hopefully will still be in decent form so we will have a respectable five starters in the stretch run even with Pavano and Brown as no shows and Leiter hopefully a no show any more as a starter.

Marc,

The Yankees, actually, are carrying a DH. The name's Giambi, although, for some foolish reason, they do let him wear a glove.

Going over to Baseball Prospectus, we find that Ortiz, who, by the way the Sox never stopped playing him at first simply because they never started playing him at first, has only played first a total of 244 games in his career. His RAA, in that short amount of playing time, is +1, suggesting that he might actually not be as bad a fielder as he looks. (Not that I would recommend that they play him there.)

Giambi, on the other hand, has a generous sample and one can definitively learn how good a first baseman he is from the numbers. His career RAA, in 951 games at first, is -43, or approximately -7 per 150 games.

Sully said A-Rod is the MVP.

And I'll add, that it's not even all that close. ;)

Debris, Cliff will point out that Giambi hits a lot better when he gets to play in the sandbox. It's first base for pete's sake not center field, it's not liek we've had a glaring defensive deficency in CF for the last 2 year.... I'm going to go cry now.

This is my first post. I just registered although I have been reading this for quite a while. Great BLOG and thank you for it, I look forward to reading it every morning while drinking my much needed java.

AROD is the definite MVP, bearing the Yankees and him don't go into some sort of downward spiral from here on. He will not win it if the Yanks don't make it.

I'm actually very pessimistic anytime we face TB, is like we are destined to lose at the hands of this AAA team. But we have to take this one game at time, I don't want to get overly concerned but we MUST win the next two games and we must win them in convincing fashion. Build that confidence.

On ORTIZ, I'm dominican so I like him because he's doing well for the nationality. But do not compare him to AROD at any level (also somewhat Dominican), not even as a hitter.

debris, you'll find that many of us applaud Giambi wearing a glove, for this simple reason:

Giambi as DH: 170 ABs, .218/.417/.382 (AVG/OBP/SLG)
Giambi as 1B: 172 ABs, .349/.489/.709

The numbers hold true not just in 2005 but for his entire career.

Additionally, as for Ortiz in the field, of the 412 games he's played for the Sox, he's appeared in 89 games as a 1B (21.6%). Year-by-year, it breaks down to (regular season only):

2003: 128 games total, 45 games at 1B = 35%
2004: 150 games total, 34 games at 1B = 23%
2005: 124 games total, 10 games at 1B = 8%

which seems like a huge drop-off to me.

Instead of looking at A-Rod's defensive value vs. Ortiz's (BTW Ortiz's career RAA is -1, not +1, in 222 games), why not look at WARP, which incorporates both offense and defense:

A-Rod: 8.6 WARP1
Papi: 6.5 WARP1

Sure seems clear to me: A-Rod is the MVP.

Alex great point. And as Shaun P. so succinctly put it, I'm just angry at last night's loss. You could just feel it starting to unravel. I knew the Yankees were on the verge of losing during that horrible 6th inning. Then after the Yanks failed to make something out of Womack and Sierra at 2nd and 1st, respectively, I was sure they were going to lose. It was a bad loss, RJ pitched good enough to win but not dominating as you'd expect an ace to be. That was also frustrating. I truly respect Tampa and I like that I get worked up for games against them now, but losing the series to them is really bad. I'll do my best at making an analogy here, the Devil Rays of 2005 are to the 2005 Yankees what the Orioles of 2004 were to the Sux of last year.

Great discussion and statistics everyone. I had no idea how large the disparity was in Giambi's hitting as a DH versus fielder. Is there some objective physical explanation? I know I hear stuff like it keeps the player's head in the game etc. but that seems like something a player could control. How much of the explanation would simply be that he plays first only when he's been in good health and thus of course hitting well at the time from that same good health? That seems like a simple, logical reason to me rather than his playing first base somehow in part causative of good hitting.

While I'm appalled at the Yankees record against Tampa, and especially by the fact that in the last three losses they blew late inning leads, it's worth pointing out that tho the Rays have a terrible over-all record, I believe they have a very good post-all-star-game record.

A little perspective.

OTOH, I think why many of us are pessimistic about the Yankees chances is that tho the schedule might look cushy, we have 5 more games against Tampa.

Frankly, the way we've played them, I would do a bleedin jig if we went 2 and 3 in those five. I could easily see us losing 4 of the 5 however.

And then we'd have to hope that we play brilliantly against the Sox and O's and that the White Sox cream the Tribe and one team in the west destroys the other head to head.

I think the reason Giambi is a better hitter when he plays the field is because it suppresses all the voices he has talking to him. One is a Yoda like voice that's constantly yelling at him, "use the cream, Jason, use the cream".

Just kidding....I'm happy for Jason and if it keeps his head in the game then great, as long as he's helping the Yankees win then I'm all for it. But I don't think there's a logical explanation other than maybe he has ADD. He just focuses more. I know when I play softball I'm better if I'm playing 3rd vs. EH, but that's because I like looking at all the chicks that are walking around.

For what it is worth I just wanted to say how much I appreciate the level of discourse we have here in the comments section. It's only rare--and generally when the Sox and Yanks meet up--that things get sophomoric and out-of-hand.

First of all, having the opportunity to commiserate, celebrate and debate in this forum is really theraputic for me. I'm somehow less upset when I realize that I've got good company! But beyond that, we really do live in something of a golden age for fans. I mean someone can pose a question, and in a few hours--or less--there will be several, well-researched replies. The amount of statisitical information that we know have at our finger tips is truly amazing. That we've got people who are interested in gathering that information and presenting it in a rational fashion is something I really appreciate.

Just wanted to let everyone know how much each and every one of you bring to this site, whether you choose to chime in or not.

Thanks.

Oh, one other thing...totally off-the topic. I was riding home on the subway yesterday evening and there was a beautiful girl sitting across from me. She was young, still a teenager, and made up like Alicia Keys. She had the long, braided hair going, and some big, dopey sunglasses, large hoop earnings, the whole bit. She was wearing a sleeveless shirt and had thin, narrow, shoulders.

I didn't pay her any mind other than to note that she looked silly and an awful lot like Keys. But as the train cleared out I noticed her hips which where wide, wider than I expected. Huh. Turns out she was getting off the stop before me, so I was curious to see what her booty looked like. Well, she gets up to leave and let me tell you, her rump was devastating. Turn your head right around and make your dumb ass walk into traffic when the lights are against you.

Being smooth and subtle as always, my jaw literally dropped open. She existed the car and I just shook my head. As I looked up, there was a heavy set kid, late twenties I assume, sitting across from me. He had one earphone dangling around his neck. He caught my look of disbelief/admiration, and we both nodded at each other.

I said, "That's lethal."

Without skipping a beat, he said in a low, dry voice, "Definitely a problem."

Satisfied in our mutual appreciation, we rode on in silence. I love New York.

"From casual observation it seems that the Yankees have run themselves into countless double plays trying to stay out of the conventional DP."

I'd estimate that Torre has attempted about 50 hit and runs this season and I'd put the success rate at around 30%. This is from casual observation.

Worst example? First inning of game one vs. Minnesota last year. (a) Torre bats Bernie fourth in the lineup, and (b) sends the runners on a 3-2 pitch and runners at first and second ... with freakin' Johan Santana on the mound. You know, who sort of leads the league in strikeouts.

Torre sends the runners on principle, not based on any consideration of their skills or of the pitcher's skills.

I'm waiting for the day when Torre sends the runners with the bases loaded and one out. Giambi strikes out looking and Posada is gently tagged out at home by a giggling catcher. Torre was just trying to be aggressive and do some things.

I'd also like to point out that, when the runners are going, the batter is forced to expand the strike zone. This approach is contrary to a strength of most Yankee hitters.

Alex, I can see her rump right her in my cubicle....very nice picture you painted.

BTW, where did you get the pictures of Mussina with those chicks? Those were hot...I want to meet those broads.

Negativity Finally Proper.

"Against Rays' closer Danys Baez in the bottom of the ninth, Jorge Posada pinch-hit for Flaherty and ground out to third on the first pitch he saw. Robinson Cano then worked a 2-2 count and bounced a pitch over Baez's head that tipped off the closer's glove for the Yankees' third infield single of the night. With Bubba Crosby in to run for Cano as the tying run, one man out, and the team's best hitters due up behind him, Derek Jeter swung at the first pitch he saw and grounded into a game-ending double play."

Now, we simply cannot allow blind allegiance to rule the day any longer. The above paragraph from the original post speakes volumes concerning the Yankees plate approach this year. How many first pitches can we possibly swing at? How many 0-1 0-2 and 1-2 counts must I stare at? How many boneheaded base-running mistakes must I witness?

I understand that they are pressing, I do. However, as a voracious Joe supporter most of the season, I am finally ready to give a portion of the blame to him. True, there is simply no excuse for the "swing for the fences" attitude every Yankees outside of Jeet, Arod, Mats and Giambi are exhibiting as of late. Further, there is no reason to blame pitchers who allow 4 or less runs into the 7th inning. If this lineup can score 10,11, 12 runs, why then do they follow it up with 2,3,1,2,1,2?

Perhaps it's true, they have no, as my Father called it "GRIT." No want of winning, no willingness to make the little sacrifices, no desire that the team be placed ahead of another 100 RBI year. As I said time and time again from 95'-2000', those teams were for the most part special, genuine, selfless, and another future opportunity to witness their equal would be a long way off.

Not one of those teams had near the talent of this one and they are going to miss the playoffs altogether. It would not surprise me in the least if Boston hangs 30 or more runs on us this weekend while we score less than 10 in the 3 game series.

Torre looks lost out there. Alan Embree over Groom or Stanton, that's an inprovement? Pulling starters early becuare you're frightened to death another one might get hurt, whilst costing us the present game. Shuffling the linueup more often the a World Series of Poker dealer. Sitting players while barely hanging on to a playoff spot. Sitting successful pitchers because "I trust the Veterans." Why then did you use Jeet and Mo in 1996 Joe? Shouldn't you have picked someone off the scrap heap to replace them down the stretch? You know what, trading Sheffield would have been a horrible mistake, but his tantrum coming prior to him learning all the facts should have facilitated it, you want the "Bronx Zoo" back? This Yankee team has no place for those public outburts. His average with RISP will continue to plummet late in the year while our best OBP guys will continue to bat 6th or 7th and another year will pass with Jeter batting first when he should clearly be number 2. If you are going to shuffel Joe, why not lead with Giambi, it's no stretch from the moves you have already made. At least he gets on base and sets a good example for the rest of out 2 pictch at-batters.

Hitters are not practicing situational hitting, working the count and taking advatage of opponents mistakes.

Last night was a perfect example, Giambi clearly trying to do to much on the bases, Joe sending both runners with no outs--I cannot even explain that one--not trusting each other to get it done. Trust wins chamionships, and when you make knee-jerk decisions you're telling the other players they cant get it done, and then, they don't and it snowballs. You think Paulie had doubts that Tino would move him over, or better yet hit him over? You think Boggs and Broscius swung for the fences instead of taking what the pitcher gives them because they were afraid of losing? You think even Knoblauch swung at every damn first pitch because he was scared he wouldn't get on base? We play defensive, we lose, it's just that simple.

Is there anyone out there who understands this game who believes this team isn't finished in the 8th most games when they are behind? The Red Sox are doing exactly what we should be, only with less talent. Their pitching has stumbled all year yet they attack weak teams and strong teams alike scoring 7, 8, 9 when in high scoring games. The Yankees cannot even come back from 3 or 4 down anymore. It's disgusting and quite frankly I wish fans would stop going to the stadium for a few days, lets see them play before 8,000 fans, put an exclamation point on this sorry season.

Can they come back, yes. Would I love to see it, yes. Would it be one of the best stories since 1996, yes.

Do I believe it will happen, no. Why, because they are no longer a team, rather a group of talented individuals who embarass Derek Jeter and Arod nearly every day and collect their checks on the 15th and 30th just like you do.

Alex - man - you're the best.

"curious to see what her booty looked like".

You're killin' me. Thanks for tossing that in. We can all use a smile after a game like last night's. Those are more painful than even a Kevin Brown meltdown. I hate seeing Mo take a loss like that.

A quick beef about Kitty last night. He kept saying Randy was "economical", and had an easy 5th inning. Yeah - it was easy - but the Rays pounded the ball right at our defense. It might have been an easy inning, but it was also pretty lucky. Forshadowing what was to come in the next inning. Who didn't see it coming?

(sigh)

Hopeing we come back against the Rays the way we did against the A's over the weekend. Sweet Lou used to be a favorite of mine when I was a teenager and he #14 for our Yankees. Now - I can't stand to see his smug face, or hear Singleton's story about asking him if he has any "Lou Pianella type hitters on his ball club".

My worst offseason nightmare is Lou replaces Joe, and Johnny Damon replaces Bernie.

(on my knees here)

If we are destined to miss the playoffs this year, can we at least give Schilling another good spanking or two?

BP

marc, that's an interesting point, but without some idea of his injuries over his career, I don't know if its true. Even when he was completely healthy - 2002 and his Oakland days - the split was there.

Frank Thomas is the only other guy I know who hits better as a 1B than a DH:

Thomas career as 1B: .337/.453/.625
Thomas career as DH: .278/.402/.512

Attributing it to injuries might work better in the Big Hurt's case, but again I don't know.

Alex, thanks to you and Cliff for providing us all with a good place to discuss and commiserate together - and nice story. ;)

BP,

"My worst offseason nightmare is Lou replaces Joe, and Johnny Damon replaces Bernie."

I can only agree halfway. Letting Bernie go for anything less than a bona-fide stud would be ludacris. I mean seriously, has anyone watched Abott and Costello play center and right in Beantown. It's better than most sitcoms watching Damon and Manny out there.

He must be kept, if only as a DH and fill-in center fielder. This is not the time to depart from our recent loyalty to several present and past Yankee players. It is part of our strength, that fly's in the face of the sophmoric garbage spewed by Yankee haters everywhere. They refuse to look with open eyes, George, for all his faults is a loyal man, there are too many to name still within the organization, not to mention his willingness to give second chances to guys like Straw and Gooden. My advice, just don't cross or lie to him, you'll be fine. He aint gonna hug ya like your daddy, as Reggie says, "but he's a good man."

Lastly, it hurts me, but I cannot cast aspersions at Lou, the truest comment this seaon was Lou's response to Schillings lie following the Devil Ray melee in which Schilling almost got within 50 feet of an actual fight, but wisely retreated as usual. God, he and Wells are like 2 peas in a pod, no wonder they get along. Lou's response was "don't know the game, don't understand the game, I've forgotton more baseball than this guy knows!" It's true folks, and any chance, no matter what club you are, should jump at any chance to have him at the helm, it's just that simple. He understands the game and the players, and the teams strategy always plays to the strengths of the team. He never had a whole lot in Seattle other than a a couple big names, but was far more successful than most guys would have been. Also remember Torre's horrible managing record before joining the Yankees folks. I love him, but he's not in Lou's league, let alone Cox's or Larussa's.

Stormer, I didn't believe it but when the count is 0-0, Jeter is hitting .345/.370/.586 this year. Maybe that's affecting him, especially when its close and late?

Regardless, I think he should take as many pitches as he can, because (like most batters) he hits far better when he's ahead in the count then when he's behind.

Jeter gets a free pass on most all of what I said. He just understands the game, isn't afraid of a 2 strike count and tends to pick the right pitch. He's just different. He understands the situation and is never afraid to take a sinlge with 2 outs if that is what the pitcher gives him. The other guys figure, "oh, it's 2 outs, might as well try to hit one out, the innings over." That is not what won us 4 titles.

It's when I see Posada and Cano and Sheff and Tino -- hurts to criticize him -- and Bernie all swinging as if it's the last at bat of their carreers in the 3rd inning. Last night Fossum had almost 60 pitches in the second, we couldn't even get him out of the game by the seventh. No patience, no team ball, no making them make pitches to you, it's getting hard to watch.

You know, i'm a guitar player, I'm somewhat aloof, I've admired Bernie since he started playig for the Yankees. I love the guy. I want his every moment to be filled with happiness and joy. That said, he should probably retire.

Stormer,

Don't know which Sox you've been watching, but Damon has played a slightly sub-par, but acceptable centerfield for the Sox this year. Actually, you might consider it brilliant considering the utterly beat up state of his body.

As for Manny, he's been flawless in right. His play in left, on the other hand, has never been less than interesting.

Also, all you guys criticizing the Yankees plate discipline have obviously never had the pleasure of watching the Cubs. I'm pretty sure one of these days they are going to set a record for fewest pitches seen in a game.

I love David Ortiz. I can't stand A-Rod. A-Rod is the AL MVP.

I also want to express my appreciation for the blog and discussion opportunity. I used to take sadistic pleasure in looking over the Boston game discussion boards over at SoSH (/Son of Sam Horn) and read the posts when the Yankees beat Boston in excruciating fashion for Boston fans. I learned of SoSH after I heard that Schilling posted over there at times under the pseudonym of G39 or something like that. I was amazed how these Boston fans would generate close to 100 pages of posts on a game as many seemed to only follow the game through the posts, finding it too anxiety provoking to watch or listen to the game directly. It was then I appreciated how fanatical the Boston fans were and how it must be even tougher for a player or manager in Boston to function than with the NY media and fans. I also wonderd if any similar site existed for Yankee fans. While I looked in at Bronx Banter and other blogs I found on a search, it seems like more recently these game discussions have become great if less over the top (fortunately) than what I recall seeing at SoSH. Anyway it's great and much appreciated to have a place to discuss and commiserate over the Yankees as my wife is not exactly a sports fan.

"The Yankees team is constructed with so many great stars that having to carry an exclusive DH like Ortiz is just losing too much batting power."

I have no problem with arod being the mvp. He deserves it, although I do feel the mvp is for contributions to the team, and no way is arod more important to the yankees than ortiz is to the sox, but you are delusional if you actually believe what you just wrote. So many great stars? Other than arod, none of those 'stars' hit like ortiz, and being in the AL, you need a DH.

"On ORTIZ, I'm dominican so I like him because he's doing well for the nationality. But do not compare him to AROD at any level (also somewhat Dominican), not even as a hitter."

On any level? I'd take ortiz in the cluth over arod any day, and I don't think many would disagree with me. It's not even close. So that's one level. I'd also much rather have ortiz in the clubhouse, but that's more subjective.

Debris.

Fine Fine. I accidentially said right. I mean that's a bad mistake considering Manny in that spacious right field would be like watching a car wreck.

Any yes it does count. It's not football, you play offense and defense, and when one of those two is less than average, you must discount the RBI's and runs to account for those cost due to poor play, just as defense which consistently saves runs must be accounted for, in terms of the game, not TV ratings, what actually wins games. No DH belongs in these discussions. Further, if I am a baseball writer, I don't let Manny in, I don't let Piazza in, the game is just different, you simply must play both roles at least adequatly to recieve consideration for brilliance in one. They don't let career .200 hitters in the hall with career .999 fielding percentages, do they?

As for Damon, I've watched enough to give my educated opinion. His arm is worse than Bernie's, and that's saying something. Futher, it's not brilliant, it's sub-par, par being the current level of play in center field in MLB. The expected level of play in center has increased since the many players around MLB have become faster and faster, with better arms and far more coverage area. It would be a huge mistake to sign someone who would be a lost puppy in Yankee Stadium's center field.

They may be Tampa, they may be Chicago, they may be Texas, they may be . . . but Damon isn't even in Gathright's, Crawford's, Rowand's, Byrne's, Gutierrez's, Hunter's, Matthews Jr.'s leauge.

AND THAT IS JUST THE AL!

As baseball experts say "Damon represents that NEXT TIER of outfielder." In other words, there are better ones out there for the long haul, and fielding aside, his Runs must be discounted a tad due to the gruesome twosome who hit while he's on base.

There are better choices, and mentioning Damon and a guy like Hunter in the same sentence is Blasfomy!

If you like your cut-off man to be stationed in medium center to accept the throw, by all means, sign Damnon.

I really don't have a problem letting Bernie go, its time. What I have a problem with is a) Bernie signing on with another team and not knowing that it is time to hang 'em up or b) us going out and signign someone like Damon who is really not an upgrade at all in center, hitting I guess, but not much else. Is there any reason simply not to sign a servicable backup type defensive guy and platoon him with one of our kids?

That is, any reason other than Torre simply doesn't do such things?

Alex, you and Cliff really elevate the discussion around here. I've found that quite a few internet forums on a variety of topics (sports, music, movies, digital cameras, whatever) have a high number of intelligent and articulate posters...but the key to good discussion and high S/N is having people who set an example for the way productive discussion should be conducted.

Otherwise, it doesn't matter who high the collective IQ is...the brightest engineers and writers seem to devolve into tantrum-ing toddlers when it comes to the subject of their favorite team or tube amp or camera model, if a positive example isn't set by respected community members.

I can't help but notice an ever-so-slight trend southward in the current discussion, with a slightly higher representation of fans of a certain other team, and some re-hashing of the usual arguments (true Yankees who won 4 championships, A-Rod not clutch, Sheffield as a cancer, not working the count, Torre sucks, etc etc) among the disappointed and hyperactive faithful.

I'm going to put on the optimist hat and say it still looks good for this year's Yankees to make the playoffs, if not win the division. I think the grave-dancing that's taking place currently with the increased representation of fans of other teams might be a tad premature. I'm biting my nails the whole way on the roller coaster, but I'm still going along for the ride.

Alex and Cliff, thanks for the great work u guys do. Alex, all i can say about that story is Bu-donka-donk

Zack, why even sign anyone? Platoon Bubba with either of the guys from Columbus - Reese or Thompson. Just don't give Torre any other options - ie, make it clear that Matsui is a LEFT fielder.

To his credit (sorta), when he has no choice, Torre has (somewhat) platooned guys - Spencer and Karim Garcia in '03, for example.

I'm starting to think that catcher might be a bigger concern. At least reasonable options for CF exist within the organization. But after Jorge, doesn't look like there's much in-house.

Shaun,

Hang in there with Jorge.

Center . . . Two Words . . . Melky Cabrera . . . If Reggie tells me he's the real deal, that's good enough for me. Might as well try it, we need to build from the ground up at more than just second base.

Stormer,

I'm confused. Crawford and Byrnes are not centerfielders. Matthews, according to his RAA, is a sub-par centerfielder. Damon's, this year, is -3, though this year is his worst by far. He is usually in the plus 4-7 range. Gathright in his less than half season is -4. Hunter is +7 this year, his first year with a postive number since 2001. And who is this Gutierrez of whom you speak.

As for Damon's arm, it certainly is weak, though considerably better than Bernie's and probably as good as Richie Ashburn's.

By what statistical measure can you justify your statement?

Hey, look on the bright side, the worst trade in a decade for the Yankees--like a frieght train you saw coming--Kevin Brown appears to be not as bad as once thought, Brazoban appears woefull and Navarro as well. It could change, but at least we didn't trade away Pedro . . . lol. Dodgers, whoa.

Debris.

It's not stats. Stats are not always indicitive of what is going on.

Byrnes should be in center, and will be, he's faster than Damon, stroger arm, and is already covering the ground of a center field in Oakland. Matthews is just getting his feet under him and will be outstanding in a year. Crawford or Gathright are faster, with better gloves and underrated at the plate.

Further, the arm. Today's teams have figured out how big a weapon speed is, especially in the "smaller" markets when competing against the better well funded squads. With an arm like Bernie's or Damon's, you will need offense to make up for the runs, runners tagging from second etc.

Lastly they're young, and considering most center fielders begin sliding at the same point catchers do, how many years do you think Damon will play well in center, assuming there are some who thinks he plays well now.

Stormer,

So, in short, what you are saying is "Don't confuse me with the facts."

As for Damon's future, he is only 31, but because of the intensity with which he plays, his body take a beating. He's been a good player for years; this year he's a great player. I don't ever expect him to repeat it and I expect him to enter the decline phase of his career by 2007 at the latest.

Frankly, I wouldn't give him more than a three year contract, though I expect the Sox to offer him four as a reward for past service. I expect the Yankees to sign him for five.

Also, as for stats. They are--the artificial importance of them--a big part of what is wrong with MLB right now. How bout a question.

If we have 4 guys with 100 RBI but miss the playoffs, what is the value of that stat?

If a player bats .250, but bats .350 with RISP in key situations over and over, should his .250 be discounted?

Granted, there are freaks of nature like Arod who simply defy logic, and yes, in his case, stats do matter because they are simply mind-blowing, if he could pitch he'd be near Ruth, less 200 home runs to make up the disparity in fence distance. As a sidenote, I also think stats contribute to the false confidence and overbloated self worth of guys like Manny, one dimensional guys, because it's all folks talk about, not defense, not pitching, not playing both well in the field and at the plate, in other words, being a Major League Baseball Player. It's for this reason that when intelligent writers are given the choice between Manny and a guy like Jeter, they pick Jeter every time.

Don't get so wrapped up in the numbers. It's an easy tool for sportswriters and analysts to replace research, creative writing and analysis, and frankly sheer laziness. They have their place, but it should not be the first utterance from the mouth.

Wasn't like Tino or Paulie were bringing down the house with stats in the late 90's, but who did you want up there with the game on the line.

Alex and Cliff great job with the sight.

It's funny though, it seems I can't watch a game and be happy with the results anymore - when the Yankees win obviously. I'll come here and read a nice post by Alex and Cliff, then I click on the user comments and I see all these acronyms being thrown out VORP, RAA, WARP, BLT, WMDs, NAACP, blah, blah, etc, etc. Anyhow, I'm an engineer and I love numbers and statistics, but does all this plethora of information ever get to be too much for people? Especially in baseball. I know what I see and I look at the usual statistics that the average die hard probably looks at. However, I have to admit I hardly look at some of the information in baseball prospectus because I know what I see from watching the games. For example, I've long heard the argument that Jeter is an awful fielder - though this year he's a in the top 4 as far as fielding is concerned. Anyhow, I never had an uneasy feeling when a ball is hit to him as I have before with the likes of Knoblauch, Soriano and sometimes Matsui. I know what I see but I don't always get the all the SABR heads and the obscure statistics being thrown out by people. Doesn't anyone watch the games anymore and make judgments based on the actual results they see? My rant is based on the ARod and Ortiz discussion that people have been going back and forth on. I watch a lot of Sawx games and I watch and/or listen to every Yankee game, I've seen enough to understand that the value of Arod is not only as a hitter but as a great fielder. I don't see the -9 that people throw out based on some obscure stat. I know enough that Ortiz is a great hitter, but I've seen him on the field enough to know he's butchered quite a number of balls hit to him. The same with Millar, but I bet someone will come up with some obscure stat that will show Millar as being the best first basemen in the league. Does any of that really make sense, doesn't it take away from the beauty of watching the game with your own two eyes as opposed to being driven to some stat that the average Joe could care less about because all they know is that Jeter/Cano/Arod/Ortiz/pick-a-player booted the ball at the most crucial moment?

With that said….I'd still take Arod over Ortiz for the long haul. For one at bat, for all the marbles….I'd take Ortiz. I don't get the Ortiz in the clubhouse over ARod comment either. I don't see the dislike, jealousy or animosity people say exists between ARod and some of the Yankees or vice-versa. That's just me. I'm sure someone will come with up a new stat: Wins Share Based On Who Likes You in the Clubhouse (WSBOWLYC) and that will gave Arod a -10 over Ortiz +45 rating. Obviously that will settle the argument over why Ortiz is better (sigh).

First, facts are fine, but are one of but many factors to be considered, intangibles count for something, situational hitting for example, smart play, fundamentals, base-running prowess, preparedness, thinking on your feet e.g. Jeter in Oakland, Game 5, leadership, many things stats will never account for but are rarely discussed because it's all about numbers.

Was Ricky any less of a cancer, a selfish player who cared not one bit about winning, because he broke the record and proclamed himself "the best of all time" simply based on a number?

Do you really think Barry Bonds is a better hitter than Babe Ruth based on a future number? Larger strike zone, fences sometimes 40-70 feet further away, who talks about that, no one, because it doesn't keep 20 year olds glued to the TV.

Further, this is Boston--Clemens, Pedro, Nomar, shall I go on?--they will not sign Damon to a long term deal unless Theo has finally plucked himself free of their "don't let the door hit you in the ass" management style over the past 50 years.

Dimelo,

Thanks for that post.

For example, Jeter's baserunning comared to Manny's.

Jeter's value defensively compared to Manny.

Jeter's leadership e.g not asking to be traded to get attention for 8 straight years from Cleveland to Boston.

Jeter's selflessness, almost ending a carreer to catch a foul ball knowing the importance of the game.

Stat-Man, are RBI's really more important that all the foregoing, really?

P.S.
"That's just me. I'm sure someone will come with up a new stat: Wins Share Based On Who Likes You in the Clubhouse (WSBOWLYC) and that will gave Arod a -10 over Ortiz +45 rating. Obviously that will settle the argument over why Ortiz is better (sigh).

Props for that one Dimelo, very funny indeed.

Hi Stormer, I really hate to be that guy but you're speaking as if you're the voice of all reason and insight into the game of baseball so I thought I'd bust your chops a little. The following sentence,

"It's an easy tool for sportswriters and analysts to replace research, creative writing and analysis, and frankly sheer laziness."

...makes no sense. You say that statistics are an easy tool to replace research. What exactly is research? It's the study and review of statistics. Next, what on earth does creative writing have to do with judging baseball players contribution to their teams?

Finally you pick on BA and RBI as two stats that don't tell the whole story. I'd be pretty shocked if any regular reader of this site thought that those two stats did tell the whole story. You say, "If we have 4 guys with 100 RBI but we lose...what's the value of that stat?" The easy answer is stats in and of themselves have no intrinsic value. Stats are an expression of things that have happened. They can often be used as predictors of what will happen in the future. That's it. There are no guarantees, and stats must be viewed in context, but saying that there is an artificial importance placed on stats that is somehow ruining MLB is pretty off the mark.

Stormer,

I really don't have the time to take apart your entire post, though frankly it would be easy. Just a couple of things:

"If we have 4 guys with 100 RBI but miss the playoffs, what is the value of that stat?" As we know, RBI is a meaningless stat. But apart from that, 4 guys don't make up a team. Most likely these four guys did their job, but, as many a Red Sox fan from the '40s or '70s can tell you, these guys don't pitch.

"Granted, there are freaks of nature like Arod who simply defy logic,..." How does Arod defy logic? By OPS, he's the third best hitter in baseball, behind Lee and Pujols. His OPS is lower than Manny's average over the last 10 years. (It is, however, Arod's best since 1996.) Very good, absolutely. Great, close. Logic defying, not hardly.

I suppose we should scout players based on how white their teeth are, whether they say please and thank you, and how they look in their uniforms. That seems a much more rational approach.

Jeter happens to look nice in his uniform, have nice white teeth and good manners. But that's not what makes him a good baseball player.

What makes Jeter special is his career .300+ BA

His career .843 OPS, his career 80% sb success rate.

Yes there are the intangibles, the fact that he's willing to break his face on a chair to catch a foul ball, the fact that he has exhibited extreme presence of mind. The fact that he's been lucky enough to be on some of the most successful teams in history. The fact that he doesn't make waves, get in fights, whine in the media. These things add to his specialness.

But Tony Womack could do all those things, and still be a hack because he can't hit, and can't get on base.

If you gave Jeter Womacks career stats, nobody would give a damn about how much he hustles.

Except apparently Joe Torre.

Funny stuff in #19 Schteeve.

"Jeter's selflessness, almost ending a carreer to catch a foul ball knowing the importance of the game."

Ending his career would have helped the team?

Jeter stands up to Manny on his tangible merits alone just fine. No need to diminish just how good he is by trotting out anxious rationalizations.

I consider myself a stats-kinda guy, and I'll tell you why. I want to know what's really happening on that field, but I don't trust my eyes to tell me what is really happening. I have biases, like everyone does, and my memory is selective, like everyone's is, and those things from my brain affect what my eyes see.

Stats, however, are concrete. If a hitter has a .250 batting average, there is no doubt that it means 1 hit per every 4 at-bats. End of discussion.

I like many of the advanced metrics (WARP, VORP, RAA, Rate2, etc) because they lack some of the problems inherent in batting average, fielding percentage, RBIs, runs, etc. They aren't without flaws, and people argue over which ones are better - but they are superior to basic metrics, and they are definitely superior to my eyes, becaus they better define what's actually happening, who's really contributing and how much.

Intangibles are a wonderful part of baseball, and my heart will never let me forget Jeter's shovel pass in Game 3 in '01. But my brain will never let me forget that Jeter was -20 in FRAA (fielding runs above average) in '01, either.

Crap like this is exactly why I advocate only signing guys with "The Good Face"

Ya know, real ballplayer-lookin' fellas.

Schteeve,

I do not profess to be the voice of all reason, and I apologize if I came off that way. I finally found a place with intelligence and interesting ideas concerning the Yankees and don't need to alienate you all right off the Bat. So, again, my bad if I seemed like a know-it-all.

However, I can explain a bit. Oh 12 in a row just now in the 4th, they are making my argument for me.

You said:

Hi Stormer, I really hate to be that guy but you're speaking as if you're the voice of all reason and insight into the game of baseball so I thought I'd bust your chops a little. The following sentence,

"It's an easy tool for sportswriters and analysts to replace research, creative writing and analysis, and frankly sheer laziness."

...makes no sense. You say that statistics are an easy tool to replace research. What exactly is research? It's the study and review of statistics. Next, what on earth does creative writing have to do with judging baseball players contribution to their teams?"

Ok let me clarify: as to research, I mean that instead of actually watching game tape, looking at game situations as they present themselves, perhaps looking at more obscure and difficult to understand statistics--they are sports writers after all, not rocket scientists, admittedly that may be too much to ask of them-- and not staring blindly at some numbers on a page--as I would expect if you spout off on a national stage for a huge salary--I do not mean to say that stats have no empirical and practical purpose, just not nearly as much as writers and analysts give them. OPS for example has been shot with oh so many holes by statisticians, but yet they still use it as if it has some practical purpose. If it does not have any mathematical efficacy, as a "professional" writer or analyst, you should at the very least disclose that much. Every time I hear OPS from Peter gammons I want to strangle him, send him back to his favorite bar in Boston, he's pickled, and has nothing valuable to say anymore.

I understand it "helps predict what may happen" but what I hear and read does not indicate that limitation. "It's just Manny being Manny, who wouldn't want him on their team, look at those numbers?" Well, I for one wouldn't want him.

As for creative writing, I was not clear enough, I do not intend to say they should be John Grisham clones to be sure. I was implying that writers have become reactionary and lazy, one day they are the greatest, the next they have no chance, that's writing? It's no longer what it was--thoughtful baseball analysis using both stats and game situations, as well as intangibles to write a coherent cloumn, not some drivvle which is meant to appeal to the lowest form of sports fan. When I used the term lazy, that is what I was referring to. Not "they have a lock on the playoffs" one day, and "It's over guys, pack it up" not two or three days later. I don't hear that here and that is what appeals to me.

You also said:

"Finally you pick on BA and RBI as two stats that don't tell the whole story. I'd be pretty shocked if any regular reader of this site thought that those two stats did tell the whole story. You say, "If we have 4 guys with 100 RBI but we lose...what's the value of that stat?" The easy answer is stats in and of themselves have no intrinsic value. Stats are an expression of things that have happened. They can often be used as predictors of what will happen in the future. That's it. There are no guarantees, and stats must be viewed in context, but saying that there is an artificial importance placed on stats that is somehow ruining MLB is pretty off the mark."

Ok here is where I may at least argue a point you may buy. What I was attempting to convey was that we now have a situation where guys believe they deserve this or that based on stats. "I had 120 RBI and 30 HR" PAY ME, for example. Guys like Ramirez are perfect examples, somehow the writers buy into it, analysts, and eventually owners as well. Manny is a one tool player, yet he makes 22 mil.? He can't run the bases, plays a below average left-field in the easiest park in which to play it, and he's a constant selfish distraction. When you pay a baseball player, you pay for the entire player, not simply offense. This needs to be taken into account, but rarely does. Just look at Arod,s defense, which should be huge news almost daily, but no, simply home runs and RBI's. His overall value is rarely discussed. These guys truly believe they "deserve" the money.

Not to start a firestorm but TO is another example, but a different sport much different than baseball, but my argument still applies, no blocking, no chemistry, an "I'm better than you" attitude, and lets be real, he plays at best the third most important position on the team. Yet guys like Hines Ward who actually do more to deliver wins, only get covered when they do something spectacular. The writers and analysts play right into it. Look at that coverage with his holdout, come on, did I need to see push ups in the driveway, was that news? No, it was lazy reporting. He's a wide-out, not a quarterback, not a running back, not even a linebacker. He is a great wide-out, but a piss poor blocker and team-mate.

Anything in there sound remotely coherent?

Shaun,

Not to be a pest but you said:

"Stats, however, are concrete. If a hitter has a .250 batting average, there is no doubt that it means 1 hit per every 4 at-bats. End of discussion."

That is just wrong, it's mathematically wrong. It's like roulette for example, every spin, on a wheel with no green, has a .50 percent chance of being black and a .50 percent chance of being red. It does not mean that they will alternate back and forth. You could see 20 blacks in a row.

What a .250 batting average means is that stretched out over a period of time, the period of time to that point in time to be exact, the ball player averages a hit 25 percent of the time. They could all come in one month or week or day for that matter. He could actually get one hit every four at bats, yes, but that is not what it indicates mathematically, and I certainly do not profess to be a mathematician.

I was arguing stats overuse and mis-use, not their relevance altogether.

Sully,

I feel like I am under attck.

You said:

"Jeter's selflessness, almost ending a carreer to catch a foul ball knowing the importance of the game."

Ending his career would have helped the team?

Absolutely not, but it certainly may raise other players level of play and attentiveness. It demonsrates leadership and a reminder that winning is the most important thing in sports, not your self.

Debris,

Last post, you guys are killing me.

"Granted, there are freaks of nature like Arod who simply defy logic,..." How does Arod defy logic? By OPS, he's the third best hitter in baseball, behind Lee and Pujols. His OPS is lower than Manny's average over the last 10 years. (It is, however, Arod's best since 1996.) Very good, absolutely. Great, close. Logic defying, not hardly.

Perhaps not logic defying, ok. But more than very good, great in fact. Take his intagibles, and yes stats, I said stats, find me someone else who can do what he does, Runs, RBI, SB, Fielding Percentage, HR, and on and on. So he's third here and second there, like I said, if he could pitch, he's be the second best ever.

I suppose guys break, and then destroy HR records by righties in the Staduim every year.

I'm getting a complex.