Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
After a rewarding 6-2 victory against the Blue Jays yesterday afternoon in the Bronx, the Yankees gained a game on the Red Sox who lost last night in Kansas City (Curt Schilling was not effective in his return to the rotation). Cliff and I feel that the anything less than a sweep of the Royals this weekend is unacceptable yet K.C. is coming off two consecutive series wins against the A's and Sox which is nothing to sneeze at.
Randy Johnson is on the mound tonight. According to The Daily News:
"Still believe in my heart of hearts that the big guy is gonna be dynamite down the stretch, Joe Torre said. "It's just that I have a sense that he is very close right now."..."He has had two bad innings in the last two starts and the one bad inning (in a no-decision at Tampa Bay) was just a three-run home run," Torre said. "The (fourth inning) in Chicago was a bad inning, that (in Tampa Bay) was not a bad inning, just a bad pitch. I am just feeling that he is much closer than he ever has been (since being here) of being back on the dominant side."
Wright pitches on Saturday, Leiter on Sunday making this an especially important start for the Big Unit. I will agree with Torre here and say that he'll be on his A-game this evening.
Cut & Paste my man - this is for the last 3 weeks but should be the info that you're looking for - just change the date accordingly - Dave Pinto's DbyD database is AWESOME.
ERA: 3.52
Win Pct.: .714
K per 9: 7.1
BB per 9: 2.7
HR per 9: 1.15
K/BB: 2.68
Worst performances - 8/6, 8/21 - RJ and 8/24 by Moose.
"The right-hander Chien-Ming Wang, who has missed seven weeks with shoulder inflammation, will make his first rehabilitation start on Monday for Class AAA Columbus."
Is there somewhere online I could 'watch' that game - even just a gameday like play by play - 'cause I'm definitely interested to see how Wang does.
On that note, I read in one of the threads recently that Jeter's defensive rate stats are even better than last year. Funny how we forget to give credit where credit is due sometimes (and I'm as guilty as the next guy).
Also, after a terrible start, Rodriguez has been very solid at third. And, after yesterday's article by McCarron, Jorge had a great game, base-running aside. Did you catch what Jeter said?
From The Daily News:
But after Jorge Posada (3-for-3) led off the sixth with a double and Jeter drove him in with a triple to the left-center field alley, there was a little more cushion. Jeter came around to score the final run on Hideki Matsui's single to right.
"I was thinking triple all the way," Jeter said with a playful smile. "It's good, too, because it usually takes a triple to score Jorge."
That's about as colorful as you'll ever get from Jeter: catch it.
Lastly, hopeful news about Wang, huh?
Nick from Washington Heights great point. People are so quick to blame Mel and Torre and criticize their moves, but they've done a great job. I'm one of the few, at least it feels like that these days, that believes this is some of the best work Torre has ever done. This team has had to overcome terrible CF defense, suspect pitching for most of the year and tons of terrible losses to teams that are not their equal (i.e Brewers, Royals and Devil Rays). Torre is the calm before and after the storm, but still has the presence of mind to instill in this team the sense of urgency that is required of them. I'm Torre believer, I don't think Pinella would ever be any good with this current Yankee team. Go Yanks!!!
Sure, when Jeter says it about Posada, it's fine. But when Mel Hall said it about Bernie, everybody got upset...
Just kidding, folks.
Jeter's rate is 105, the only time he's been over 100 (average) in his career and he's well above 100 to boot. Last three years: 82, 99, 105. Wow!
By the way, Cano's a 98 at second, which is solid considering his 12 errors (Placido Polanco has 18 total in his 8 year career, then again Alfonso Soriano has 19 already this year). With a little work on his focus he should be comfortably over 100.
Giambi: 82 (somehow I had deluded myself into thinking that he wasn't THAT bad out there)
Tino: 92 (the days of his near-Gold-Glove defense are well behind him)
Small learned under the AAA pitching coach before he was promoted.
Chacon went to Mussina to help him with his gameplan.
I don't see how either of them shows Mel in a good light. If anything, Chacon's choice may indicate Mel's shortcomings are known as far west as Colorado.
What's the formula for infield rate stats?
Any theories about why Jeter has improved so much over the last two years? I wonder whether A-Rod's presence has anything to do with it. I think my biggest problem with Jeter in the past was his inability to get balls to the left. Could it be that A-Rod does such a good job of ranging to his left that Jeter is able to cheat toward 2nd base more?
or is the consensus that Melky's starting in CF next year, ready or not?
IMO, Cashman gets the credit. He promoted Wang (despite Torre/Mel's hesitation), steal of the trade-deadline in Chacon (even if he regresses over time), and he identified and got Leiter, even while convincing Florida to pay the bulk of the salary, while not going after Sele and at least not promoting Nomo. Small was just plain luck. Nobody really deserves credit for luck. (it wasn't the Brach Rickey residue of design kind)
1. Leiter has pitched well in only 4 of his 8 starts
2. Wright pitched well his last 2 starts; don't forget his first 4 starts back in April
3. Small pitched very well 3 starts, not so well in the other (5.1IP 5H 3R 4BB 3K = 5.06ERA)
4. Chacon has been very good in all 6 of his starts
So that's: 15 good starts, 9 bad. But if you eliminate the other-worldly Chacon: 9 good, 9 bad. And this doesn't include the streaky Moose and undependable Unit, for whom Mel also shares credit and blame.
Again, I'm not a Mel-hater, and I'm really happy with how Small, Leiter, Chacon, and Wrighty have done lately - certainly over expectations - but I'm just saying . . .
I think he's positioned more to the right.
Although, I have to admit, I don't know the "rate" stat Cliff and Dan-el quote. Jeter's Zone Rating hasn't changed much (.789-.855 over his career), he's at .818 this year, which makes sense. He's not getting to more batted balls, just more of the ones to the right, leaving some of those to the left to ARod.
Al Leiter in Newsday Aug 8: "I get amped up. I rush and I don't allow my arm to get up to a decent release point," he said. "But I worked with Mel on being a little more deliberate. I feel comfortable with Mel. I told him, if you see anything wrong, tell me. It won't hurt my feelings."
From the Aug 9th Star Ledger: Sturtze got some help from pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre, who worked with the pitcher on his mechanics before the game.
"It was great that Joe called on me, because I wanted to get back out there," Sturtze said. "Toronto was so awful, and I wanted to get that taste out of my mouth."
You can read all about people working w/Mel on their mechanics-try looking for it...
Suppose I think that Wang is a young pitcher that did very well under Mel's tutelage. Well, Mel's critics have set up a sure-fire way to discredit that argument. It was the way his minor league pitching coach dealt with him that contributed to his success. What about the wonder that has been Mariano's healthy career? Well, Mariano is Mariano. He's basically a diety and he didn't need help. And Aaron Small's performance against major league hitters? Well, that's his minor league coach again. Mel hasn't even spoken to him since he got to the Big Show.
Let Curt Blowhard and his Idiots spend September trying to hold on to a post season spot.
Would there be anything sweeter than officially eliminating those punks from postseason contention in their own park the last series of the year?
(Yeah, I put the cart before the horse. So what!)
Mel is an easy target, Clemens and Pettite thought the world of him, but like Nick from the Heights said, the naysayers
always put themselves in a pretty favorable position to knock him down and diminish what he's done.
I like sabermetrics so much because it lets me look at the information and made the conclusions on my own. When people discuss Mel, here and elsewhere, too often we're told the conclusion first - he sucks - and then the evidence is stacked to support that conclusion. I'd rather just get the objective evidence of both good and bad, and figure it out for myself.
Jay Jaffe and Steven Goldman were supposed to do something like that - at least the Pinstriped Bible/Blog said so once - but then it never happened. Maybe this offseason?
Brown getting hurt wasn't due to any sort of luck, that was eminently predictable.
At this point, for the playoffs, is Chacon the #1 starter?
First, I refuse to believe that Torre has been a plus this year. His calming influence has been negated by too many enigmatic and ill-conceived on-field moves (starting Womack so frequently, his poor use of the pen, et. al.).
Secondly, I really have no idea how much influence Mel has on his pitching staffs - good, bad, or indiferent. Still, I've always been alarmed at the number of former Yankee pitchers who go on to post significant improvements elsewhere, away from Mel and NY (Contreras, Javy, Claussen, Halsey, Clemens, Lilly, Marte, Weaver, and on, and on...). And, I don't know if this is commonplace, but what does it say when some of your top pitchers get tutelage from outside sources (Kerrigan with Johnson and Pettite's dad with Pettite)?
Some of those pitchers you list there weren't with Mel long enough or there wasn't a place for them in the rotation.
For example, Marte got traded to the Pirates for Enrique Wilson he didn't play enough for Mel at the major league level. Claussen pitched, I believe, one game for the Yankees. Halsey's another one that didn't play any significant amount of time under Mel, there was no room for Lilly when he was playing, Contreras sucked from the begining - hard to blame that on Mel. Clemens won a Cy Young - w/ Mel as his pitching coach.
The crime against pitching for which Stottlemyre is continually retried is Dwight Gooden. Stottlemyre's big sin was excessive concern with Gooden's ability to hold baserunners, but he didn't notice that there weren't any. It led to a noticeable change in Gooden's mechanics. As with everything, however, a confluence of factors affected Gooden: workload, immaturity, drug use, and, yes, Stottlemyre. At the time, nearly nobody in baseball worried about babying the arms of young pitchers. Who except for Weaver believed that the best way to develop starters by making them into long relievers first? Sabermetricians were starting to count pitches because they hadn't been counted before, but nobody truly knew what do do with the information.
Without consulting any reference sources, these are players developed by the Yankees over the past ten years:
Derek Jeter
Jorge Posada
Andy Pettitte
Mariano Rivera
Nick Johnson
Eric Milton
Alfonso Soriano
Brad Halsey
Brandon Claussen
D'Angelo Jimenez
Robinson Cano
Dioner Navarro
Yhency Brazoban
With a few exceptions, the noteworthy thing about the list is how good the Yankees have been at identifying the best players in the bunch to keep for themselves.
Season Stats:
Javier Vazquez
10-12 4.67ERA 148K 34BB 1.26 WHIP
Brad Halsey
8-10 4.39ERA 79K 34BB 1.46WHIP
Randy Johnson
11-8 4.34ERA 167K 34BB 1.22WHIP
I remember in the beginning of the season there were alot of people saying, "Look at the game Halsey is pitching...", "Look at how good Vazquez has been..." Every post seem to bring down the notion that Johnson wasn't worth it. Did we really make a worthwhile trade?
Well, if you look at the numbers recently vazquez/halsey's seasons seem mediocure after all. Vasquez seems to have reverted back to his last year self with his poor second half, and Halsey is proving everyday he is a project with his inconsistency. The diamondbacks pitchers are in the weakest division in baseball while the yankee pitchers are battling it out in one of the toughests divisions. Dont give me the old line that "their young, johnson is old, they will develop" because vazquez and halsey have seen the big lights in NY and now the little lights in Arizona and nothing has seemed to changed in my mind. They seem like the frail pitchers we have seen all along. Let's just admit they will always be projects while Johnson will always be the show!
Yes, Johnson has had one horrible inning coupled with a few bad pitches thrown at the wrong time. Yes, he has shown this season that he has been sub par from his previous years. But one thing I am glad about is that we have him going into september where it matters most. Just knowing he can shutdown a team anytime is good enough for me. Just knowing he is taking the mound against the sox later this season will get me hyped. Just knowing that he is a winner will let me keep on believing. The stats may not reflect that this year, but I just have a gut feeling he is not going out like that. Johnson will prove that stats do not define a season but moments. He is due for a big moment. The unit is on the hill tonite. Shut the critics up and give 'em hell!
I expect we'll be in a race down to the wire and whoever's up will start game 1. That said, I'd imagine Torre would try to shade things so Chacon would happen to be the guy up - or anyway I would. Though if Moose gets it together (not unlikely) or RJ does (seems unlikely) that would change. Chacon is still riding a small sample size.
"Cano sees an average of 3.01 pitches per plate appearance. There have been 368 players in the majors this year who have had at least 125 plate appearances. Three-hundred and sixty-seven of them have looked at more pitches per plate appearance than has Cano. He is dead last."
And please don't tell me that "Cano's slumping because Ruben's in Tampa."
He's a 6'10" lefty and I can only think of one other player that fits that description. But imagine getting him BEFORE his prime, not 3 years after the fact.
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