Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Thanks to a well-timed and largely media-free vacation on the Maine coast, I missed the latest Yankee stumble against the sub-.400 Devil Rays. Not having witnessed the infuriating manner in which the Bronx Bumblers blew the final two games of that series earlier this week, I sense that I might have a slightly different perspective when sizing up the remaining six weeks of the Yankees' season than those embittered by watching those games unfold.
What I see when I look at the standings is that the Yankees are four games behind the Red Sox in the AL East with six games left to play against Boston and one and a half games behind the A's in the Wild Card race with three games left to play against Oakland. That means the Yankees' destiny is in their own hands. If they are able to match just one of these two clubs win-for-win over the remainder of the season and sweep their head-to-head confrontations, the Yankees will make the playoffs for the eleventh consecutive season.
Not that I expect that to happen.
But then again, why not? Aside from those nine games against the teams they're chasing, the Yankees have just three remaining games against the other two AL teams with better records than their own, those being the three games they will play against the AL best White Sox in Chicago this weekend.
Otherwise, the Yanks have three home games against the league-worst Royals, three games at the West's worst Mariners (against whom the Bombers are 5-1 on the season, including a 2-1 series win in Safeco in May), and a whopping 22 games against the three teams below them in the AL East standings.
The A's, meanwhile, have those three games against the Yankees, four in Fenway against the Red Sox, and seven against the division-leading Angels. The Red Sox have those six games against the Yanks and four against the A's, and six more against the Angels, who whupped them 13-4 last night to open a four-game series in Anahiem.
For those keeping track, that's 11 remaining games against what I'll, for lack of a better term, call "playoff caliber" teams for both the A's and Yanks, and 14 for the Red Sox. Overall, I think it's fair to say that the Yankees have the easiest remaining schedule as, while the A's, Yanks and Bosox will all do battle with each other, the A's and Hosers each have a pair of series remaining with the Angels (who as of this moment are my pick to win the AL pennant) while the Yankees get a second chance at the slumping White Sox.
Yes, the White Sox still have the best record in the American League and a convincing 10.5 game lead in the Central, but that was almost entirely the result of a smoking first half that saw the Chisox peak at 57-26 (.687) before being swept by the A's in their final series before the All-Star break. Since then, the Pale Hosers have gone 16-18 (.471), dropping their overall winning percentage 60 points to .627. Best of all for the Yankees, the bulk of that losing has come in August, a month in which the AL's "best" team has gone 6-9. Most of that is due to an active five-game losing streak that started immediately after the Southsiders squeaked out a 2-1 series win against the Yanks over the course of three one-run games early last week.
Since that series, each team has made just one roster move. The Yankees have dumped bullpen flotsam Wayne Franklin in favor of an apparently healthy (knock knock) Jaret Wright, who turned in what was easily his best Yankee outing in his first start off the DL this past Monday and will start against a hopefully less determined Jose Contreras on Sunday. The White Sox, meanwhile, have had to disable lead-off man Scott Podsednik, giving his roster spot to 23-year-old rookie outfielder Brian Anderson and his spot in left field and the batting order to < a href="https://cubtown.baseballtoaster.com/archives/166042.html">Timo! Perez.
The Yankees move clearly makes them better, while the White Sox move clearly makes them worse (Timo! actually started two of the three games in last weeks' series due to a Carl Everett injury, but not as the White Sox's lead-off hitter, and good as Timo is in the field, Podsednik is better). As the last meeting between these two teams resulted in a net score of 6-5 White Sox, it's not irrational to think that these simple changes just might have tipped the balance in the Yankees' favor.
Tonight the Yanks send staff anchor Mike Mussina against the major-leagues' second winningest pitcher, Jon Garland. Coming off a pair of stomach-punch loses against the Devil Rays, with the FOX jinx lurking over tomorrow's El Duque/Chacon match-up, and the two teams the Yankees are chasing starting their respective aces tonight (Harden and Clement), the Yankees really need to pull out a win tonight to keep morale high and the hitters loose.
Before the Tampa Bay series started, I went and pointed out several disparraging ERA stats of the Rays pitchers the Yanks were facing (who the Yanks then made look like Whitey Ford) and stated that the Yanks SHOULD, at least take 2 games. Yeah, that worked out well...
Now, before the CHiSox series, not looking at stats & with the Yanks facing far better pitchers, I haven't learned my lesson. The Yanks should, nay, WILL take at least 2 of 3 in this series. Why, you ask? WHY NOT? Rather than rely on stats or anyting else, I'm just going with my gut and hopes as one of the dwindling number of optimistic Yankee fans out there. In my mind, this is a FLAWED but still .600 ballclub that has played super craptastic baseball against the two worst clubs in the AL (KC & TB) but will be able to pull it out in time for the playoffs.
Now that being said,
Cano should be moved down in the order,
Andy Phillips should be called up and Felix Escalona sent down,
If Proctor has options left, send him down, bring up Colter Bean for the rest of the month and then bring back Proctor when the rosters expand,
Send down Bubba Crosby and bring up Kevin Thompson - both would probably be null at the plate BUT Thompson is a VERY good outfielder with very good speed and great baserunning instincts (41SB, 10CS this year)
Anything I missed?
On the subject of Torre, from the last thread: I question some of Torre's moves too, but I see no viable alternatives.
We need a manager who will:
1. Handle NY and the Yankee vets
2. Manage a bullpen and a bench effectively.
3. Give younger players a chance over washed up veterans.
4. Most importantly: win, baby.
Only 1 guy fits that bill 100% and is (somewhat) available - Davey Johnson.
If you can't get him, you stick with Torre. He's got 1 and 4 down, as few managers ever have. 2 and 3 can be forced on him by the FO getting rid of Tino, Sierra, Womack, Embree, Franklin, Leiter, Rey Sanchez, etc. (maybe Gordon too, he's a free agent.)
Give him a bench of:
C - Flaherty *
2B/SS - Escalona or Joe Thurston
OF - Kevin Reese or Kevin Thompson
OF - Bubba Crosby
And of course Phillips and Giambi split 1B/DH, with Phillips able to backup at 3B. And if you can find a better backup IF, do it.
*I know Flaherty's a crappy vet, but Unit seems to pitch better with him catching over Posada
And then you make a pen of:
CL - Mo
RP - Colter Bean
RP - Sturtze
LP - Sean Henn
RP - Scott Proctor
LP - Alex Graman
RP/SP - Shawn Chacon
Henn gets ready for the rotation in '07 (when Wright is gone) Earl Weaver style - by pitching from the pen. Chacon is the swingman who can start if need be.
You could also replace Anderson/Graman with Jorge DePaula, Jason Anderson, or whoever else is down at Columbus with good K, K/BB, and HR rates. (I don't know much about what we've got in AAA.) Or go after minor league free agents who have high K and low BB and HR rates. Get as many of these guys as you can; the younger, the better. If a guy gets 6 weeks worth of frequent use in the pen and he sucks, then you cycle in someone else until you have a good pen. Otherwise, do nothing. Torre can't just pitch Mo and Sturtze every day - even if he might try for a while, it won't last.
If the Brewers and the Angels, among others, can build pens this way, why can't we?
I totally agree with dropping Cano in the order. In fact, I think Phillips (or Giambi, given his recent hitting slump) would make a fantastic #2 hitter. Think of the pitches they'd see hitting in front of Sheff and A-Rod.
The Yanks have been all over the place this year but they are still good enough to get into the playoffs. Man, it would be great if they just got there this season, don't you think?
Th Yanks are loaded with talent. Pitching problems? The Sox are in 1st with the WORST ERA in the AL. While the Sox are 14th in pitching, we are 9th (and getting better of late). I see no reason why our offense is not as good as the Sox. However, we have underperformed and been poor in the clutch.
It's a simple as that. We have too many LOB and not enough 2 out hits.
I think it's a mental thing. We are not playing smart. When we blow a lead, the offense shuts down. We have the talent.... but do we have the will?
Incidentally, the Tampa Bay announcers weren't bad.
Dreadful baserunning in the top of the third, still, tie game.
Giambi when DHing: .225 /.424/ .411 /.835
Yanks w/runners in SP & 2 out: .698 OPS--that's tied w Cleveland for 2nd last in AL, .001 ahead of KC[!]
On the other hand, if we check close and late, they're .758, which dosen't sound great but is 2nd in AL (closers keep the numbers down) behind only the Red Sox, whose .880 is just insane, a total outlier...
so what I wanna know is, with those hitting stats in close and late PLUS Mo, how come we're only 16/14 in one run games?
"No runs for the bad guys, the good guys coming to bat."
On Garland (after giving the Yanks a 3-1 lead) "He hasn't gotten a strike all night."
They are like a morning drive time radio program, and a bad one at that. They reek of mid-west hick'ry smoked flav-err. I'm in Japan and switched back the Japanese language audio track because I couldn't take it anymore.
Now, no major league manager will do it, but with the heart of the order due up in the eighth, this is where I'd like to see Rivera pitch the eighth and Gordon the ninth. The only problem there is, if Gordon has nothing, there's no safety net. Assuming Torre goes Flash to Mo, I can dig it.
As you say, everything has to go right — but, boy what a move that would be.
I think Davet Johnson used to do that, I think changing every batter depending on righty/lefty
By the way, good call on the hit and run to stay out of the DP and good baserunning by Bernie to get to third on Rodriguez's grounder.
Optimism baby...it's the only thing keeping me going these days.
Yankees win!
I swear, the Yankees seem to do better against good teams than against losers like Tampa and KC. I just don't get it.
I wasn't sure they still existed.
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