Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The Brewers and Cubs try to stay alive tonight. As I write in my SI.com preview, I'm not optimistic about their chances. Here's how the last 54 best-of-five series to start 2-0 have ended:
abreu apparently wants 3 years, minimum. we should offer him arbitration and get picks for him. i understand his shortcomings, but i've always been a fan of his and will miss him.
from tim at mlbtraderumors: Speculative possible suitors for Abreu this winter: the Rays, Royals, Braves, Mets, Cubs, and Reds.
If he takes arb, it's definitely because he doesn't get what he's looking for, which puts us in a bind once again with a very unstable outfield defense and diminishing offensive potential. Plus, his trends are similar to Bernie at this age... do we really want to go through that again??
Interestingly enough, though, the chances of coming back from being down 2-0 historically - 13% - are almost identical to the chances of flipping tails 3 times in a row (12.5%).
When I was using the coin toss comparison, I was referring to each individual series as an event - meaning that the results of one series have no effect on the likelihood of an upset in another series.
This is of course true: games in one season have no "effect" on games in the next season (unless there is some psychological effect, that players' performances are influenced by what they saw the previous season even if on TV).
In particular, the fact that no one came back last year is irrelevant for calculating the odds that someone will come back this year.
But, this statement is not necessarily true. By citing the "odds" (ie, the number of times out of the total chances) that a team has come back from a big deficit, one is making a historical argument. As such, chronological factors are not "irrelevant."
For example, it may be the case that no recent team has come back down 0-2 (in other words, the comebacks happened in the olden days). If so, that may indicate that contemporary strategy or player usage (for example, more specialized bull pens preventing late inning comebacks) has in fact lessened the chances of a big playoff comeback.
So, I agree that no teams coming back last year does not have a direct effect on the series this year, we cannot conclude that the fact is "irrelevant" to predictions about deficit-facing teams this season.
I would take that chance for the opportunity that he walks (very high probability) and the teams gets draft picks.
Hey... I JUST DID IT.
Guys, I must make a historical case that the odds (Hads/Tails) are NOT 50/50 but: 46.9%/53.1% (lets call it 47/53)
Calculating Odds is based on mathimatical probabiltity.... which may have little to do with reality, due to the RCNU (Random Chaotic Nature of the Universe) thingy.
Bobby Abreu - lets says he accepts arb. He made $16m last year. He had a good year. Would he end up getting $15m? More? Less?
Lets say he gets $15m. What's a 3 yr contract worth? $40m? If so, to breal even, after playing he tear as a Yankee, he would then need to get a 2/$25m contract.
So.... there may be some variables here, as Bobby WANTS to stay with the Yanks, and I think the Yanks want him for 1 more year.
The truth is the yanks OF situation sucks. Unless they can get Holliday or another stud, they could use Bobby, especially if they rotate 4 OFs, and Bobby DH's sometimes.
It may be the same with Jason. It would to nice to dump these guys, but only makes sense if we get better replacements.
And can anyone verify if this statement is true of false: Miranda STINKS at fielding 1B. Worse then Giambi.
Would he end up getting $15m? More? Less?
I'm not sure you under stand how baseball arbitration works--or maybe I don't. The player and team agrees to go to arbitration. The player submits one figure, the team submits a figure. The arbiter chooses which side wins.
So, he would get as much as either Abreu or the Yankees wrote on a piece of paper.
It would to nice to dump these guys, but only makes sense if we get better replacements.
Or if the team gets draft picks. That's why (IMO) keeping Giambi makes more sense than keeping Abreu. Giambi will not garner any draft picks, but Abreu will. Plus, we know how much Giambi will cost, while Abreu would be somewhat of a crapshoot (look how Posada leveraged a great big deal last year).
Abreu will probably post an OPS+ of around 120 next year, and quite likely lower. He will play increasingly atrocious defense. His production is not irreplaceable.
Yes, having Abreu (and Matsui) as the #4 and #6 OF for some elaborate rotation is a nice idea, but I seriously doubt it will happen.
The Nady and Abreu situation is very similar to one with Sheff and Abreu. So it is possible the Yankees sign Abreu and trade one of them. However, I am about 150% sure they will offer him arbitration, he will walk, and the Yankees will collect the draft picks.
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.