Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The Yankees are 7-5 against the Rays this year, which is a solid showing against a team that leads them by 12 games in the standings. Sadly, it's done them little good. The Yankees could sweep their remaining six games against Tampa Bay, match their record against third-part opponents, and still finish six games out in the AL East.
We're in an odd stage of the Yankees' season. Best I can tell, just about all of the fanbase and most of the media have come to grips with the reality that the Yankees will miss the postseason for the first time since 1993, but because they're still "just" seven games out of the Wild Card with 26 left to play, the team itself, as well at its broadcasters, need to at least pretend they're still in it. It's true that it ain't over 'til it's over, but the Yankees have to gain one game on the Red Sox over the course of each remaining series to arrive in Boston on September 26 in position to pass Boston with a series win, and even that doesn't account for the second-place team in the AL Central, whom the Yankees also trail in the Wild Card race. It's just not going to happen.
What's left now is saying farewell to Yankee Stadium, preparing for next year--be it by giving Alfredo Aceves a start or two in place of Pavano or Ponson, letting Brett Gardner start in center field, or hoping Hideki Matsui gets on a hot streak to increase his trade value--and Mike Mussina's pursuit of 20 wins, which continues tonight in St. Petersburg, Florida.
Mussina enters tonight's game with 16 wins and will have five starts left afterwards (against the Mariners, Rays, White Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Red Sox). The Yankees have won Mussina's last six starts, but Moose earned the win in just three of them due to late-breaking run support. Still, Mussina's been excellent over that stretch, posting 2.93 ERA and averaging 6 2/3 innings. In fact, over his last 17 starts, Mussina has a 2.92 ERA and has averaged nearly 6 2/3 innings per start. Only once over that stretch has he failed to complete six innings and only once has he allowed more than four runs (both coming in the same game against the Orioles). Still, he has just 9 wins in those 17 starts, due in part to losing scores such as 4-2 (twice), 3-2, and 2-1. That makes four wins in six starts a tall order, and four wins in five starts should he lose tonight extremely unlikely.
Moose's mount opponent tonight is Matt Garza, who has displayed a Verlander-like inconsistency. Over his last nine starts, Garza has held the opposition scoreless four times, including two shutouts. In the other five games, he has allowed 24 runs in 27 1/3 innings. The trend: three of those four scoreless outings came against Toronto. The exception: one of the shutouts was a two-hit, nine-K performance against the Rangers in Arlington. Garza has faced the Yankees once this year, shutting them out over seven innings back on May 12. In his next start, he gave up seven runs in 4 1/3 innings. Such is Garza.
No Excuses
Both Garza and ace Scott Kazmir (who faces Darrell Rasner on Thursday) spent time on the DL early in the season. Carl Crawford and rookie sensation Evan Longoria are on the DL now, with Crawford likely out for the year. Rocco Baldelli missed most of the season, though he's recently returned as Cliff Floyd's platoon partner at DH. Floyd also spent time on the DL earlier in the season, as did Longoria's predecessor/replacement Willy Aybar, All-Star catcher Dioner Navarro, infielder Ben Zobrist (who is currently platooning with Eric Hinske in left field), last year's breakout star Carlos Peña, shortstop Jason Bartlett, and a handful of relievers, among them closer Troy Percival, who is due to return from his third DL stint tonight, and last year's closer Al Reyes, who pitched himself off the team after returning from his DL stint. Beyond that, Crawford was below average when healthy, Bartlett's been a huge disappointment on both sides of the ball, and B.J. Upton is slugging a mere .397 with just 8 homers after slugging .508 with 24 jacks in fewer plate appearances last year.
Tampa Bay Rays
2008 Record: 84-51 (.622)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 79-56 (.583)
Manager: Joe Maddon
General Manager: Andrew Friedman
Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Tropicana Field (98/100)
Who's Replaced Whom:
Willy Abyar has replaced Evan Longoria (DL) at third base
Justin Ruggiano (minors) has replaced Longoria on the roster
Gabe Gross has replaced Carl Crawford (DL) in the outfield
Rocco Baldelli (DL) has replaced Crawford on the roster
Jason Bartlett (DL) has replaced Reid Brignac (minors)
Fernando Perez (minors) has replaced Jonny Gomes (minors)
Chad Bradford has replaced Gary Glover
25-man Roster:
1B - Carlos Peña (L)
2B - Akinori Iwamura (L)
SS - Jason Bartlett (R)
3B - Willy Aybar (S)
C - Dioner Navarro (S)
RF - Gabe Gross (L)
CF - B.J. Upton (R)
LF - Eric Hinske (L)
DH - Cliff Floyd (L)
Bench:
R - Rocco Baldelli (DH/OF)
S - Ben Zobrist (LF/IF)
R - Shawn Riggans (C)
R - Justin Ruggiano (OF)
R - Fernando Perez (OF)
L - John Jaso (C)*
Rotation:
L - Scott Kazmir
R - Andy Sonnanstine
R - James Shields
R - Matt Garza
R - Edwin Jackson
Bullpen:
R - Troy Percival
R - Dan Wheeler
R - Grant Balfour
L - J. P. Howell
R - Chad Bradford
L - Trever Miller
R - Jason Hammel
R - Juan Salas*
15-day DL: R - Evan Longoria (3B), L - Carl Crawford (LF), R - Jae Kuk Ryu
60-day DL: R - Chad Orvella
*September call-ups
Typical Lineup:
L - Akinori Iwamura (2B)
R - B.J. Upton (CF)
L - Carlos Peña (1B)
L - Cliff Floyd (DH)
S - Willy Aybar (3B)
L - Erik Hinske (LF)
S - Dioner Navarro (C)
L - Gabe Gross (RF)
R - Jason Bartlett (SS)
Tonight, root for Moose.
Bad baserunning by the Rays.
The following is from the LoHud blog:
What about using Aceves or Hughes?
"We're talking about sending a rookie possibly out there who doesn't have a lot of starts in the big leagues. It's not like we have Cy Young, Steve Carlton, you know, waiting in the wings. If we did make a change, you're talking about youth. They don't have the experience."
Hinske is an awful baserunner.
And now that I think about it...being a former Red Sox probably helped him on this play. Other outfielders would assume Nady would get it, or it was gone, but Damon's used to playing it off the left field wall. And backing up Manny...
But wait! When a 'clutch' player hits with RISP, how did those runners get on? Why does the guy who get a hit with man on 2nd get more credit then the guy who doubled to get to 2nd? And what of leadoff hits. They're not 'clutch', are they? But they're pretty important to scoring, aren't they?
Solo HRs don't help a players RISP, but the tend to score a run. And getting a hit with man on 1st is cool, but not RISP cool.
Stats show (and lets be honest, our eyes too)that ARod has been terrible in the clutch this year. The same stats show he was insane last year.
We know Jeter is valuable because he scors so many runs. ARod, a clean up hitter, has scored 9% more runs then Jeter. 17% more then JD.
I think ARod does have some mental problems in pressure situations. I'll buy that, but they are way, way exaggerated by the press. I mean, it's a story if he takes off his shirt outside, so just imagine when he leaves men on base.
I'm not familiar with the 'clutch' stats posted in the (fan graphs) article. But they seem very one-dimentional.
Career OPS: 0.967
Career RISP: 0.955
Career Leading off: 0.979
Career Runners On: 0.981
Career Bases Loaded: 1.099
Career Hi Leverage: 0.974
;)
The fan graph's clutch stats are nebulous because they don't define their leverage formula. Also, they don't account for externalities such quality of teams (shouldn't there more leverage in a 3-run game between contenders than a tie game between also rans). Furthermore, they define clutch as not being as good in high leverage as you are overall. That is flawed for several reasons, namely: (1) a hitter could be ridiculous in all situations, but just great in high leverage, rendering them unclutch; and (2) high leverage situations have a much smaller sample than overall, so a blip could skew the stat.
By the way, for his career, Arod has an OPS of 1.012 with a man on third and less than two outs (572 PAs).
OB% and SLG% rank higher. Fifth in the league and second in the league.
(It's also quite bizarre that OB% and SLG% are suddenly ignored when splits are mentioned.)
So, I think it's safe to assume that the gripe is not with BA, it's with RISP BA. In other words, not the number of hits, but with the distribution of hits.
Right now, he's 100-for-300 with no RISP and 35-for-137 (.255) with RISP. Take 8 hits from category one and move them to category two. That even things out.
Big whoop. It wouldn't hurt, but it wouldn't help much.
Yankees would still be in third place and ARod would still be their best player, by far, and the best 3b in baseball (for what it's worth, Chipper Jones is hitting .184 with RISP and two outs and David Wright is hitting .224 with RISP and two outs).
Switch Pedroia and Cano and the Yankees are in first place.
Before then, I didn't even know that was a stat anyone kept track of.
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Also, Giambi beating anyone to the bag? He was downright spry there.
now don't screw this up for moose with any more half-ass plays.
No harm done.
Apparently Meacham never made the rangers or retired because there are no add'l stats for him.
62 A-Rod should hook up with Samantha Fox next..
http://tinyurl.com/5662ud
sounds like we will see joba tonight.
and i accidently left sportscenter on tonight and kruk was back to the whole joba as 7th/8th inning guy. i guess i am at fault for having that on - but damn are we going to be subjected to this all over again?
http://tinyurl.com/5trj9y
the history and pageantry of Sumo really make it special..
My first yankee game was in Baltimore and I saw Chuck Cary (remember him!?) throw a 2-0 shutout and Rags got the save. Donnie had a couple of hits.
Also, do you reconfigure the schedule at the end of the year to try and get him 20?
personally, i would like the yanks to at least consider doing what the red sox do with all their pitchers but especially the younger ones with innings limits - where they put them on the dl in the middle of the season with a hangnail or whatnot to keep their innings down. i'm not sure it's the best course of action to start joba in relief again and have him make the transition to starting in the middle of the season again next year.
But the problem is I don't think he could play anywhere unless they jettison Abreu and he gets hurt a lot and has some chronic medical issues that will impact his playing time.
Of course, the team loving the events tonight the most is the Red Sox, as the WS, Twins and Rays are all losing.
I told him "FUCK THAT. it's tennessee! I want to see Fat Phil and the pumpkin wearing vols lose every game!"
Bear in mind that Phil Fulmer had a lot to do with Alabama being put on probation in 2001.
OK...no more politics, but I figured I'd give my 2 cents since you waded into it.
I did have a friend from Tennessee who would always wax poetic about the insanity surrounding SEC football. That I can dig.
So, at least the Yankees didn't trade anything of value or even simply saddle themselves with a bad contract for 2009. And then you wonder why the Mariners are so bad?
By the way, Palin scares me a little.
Part of me says the Brewers but I am worried that they are hurting our future by overpitching CC
The cynic in may says Boston because that would make the Steinbrenners start printing money to hand it out.
still on the path for 20.
nice to see joba and giese out there too.
122 i'd be okay with that too.
Also, she wants to kill polar bears.
As for the abuse of power and the killing of polar bears, well, I could respond to that, but this is a baseball site and I promised no more politics, which I will stick to from this point forward! I promise!
142 OK fine...the town and state may be small, but she still has executive experience. Obama has one half term as a U.S. Senator and 7 years as a State Senator. Why does that impress you? What about Obama's record is impressive? What's more, the election is between McCain and Obama, so the experience contest isn't even close. Just ask Joe Biden...there are plenty of audio clips from this past winter in which he calls into question Obama's qualifications.
As for not knowing her, once again, I don't see how that matters. He made a selection that complement him very well...I don't see the value in picking another senator without a recent link to the real world.
143 You are wearing the partisan hate now too? What is so revolting about a man who bucks party lines to support what he believes? Lieberman is an excellent advocate for McCain, which is why I think Dems like yourself find him so revolting.
144 That's like saying check out a Red Sox blog for objective analysis of the Yankees :)
see 143 and 144
Cripes...I take a week or so off from the Banter and come back to find it has turned into political discussion board. Not meaning to single out Tokyo...those were only the most recent posts.
150 Oh heck, I'll root for the Rays. To be honest, I've lost a good bit of interest now that things have picked up at work.
anyways, a Rays-Cubs WS would be awesome..
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