For a superstar player, Derek Jeter is probably in decline. But for a regular old baseball player - and a shortstop, at that - he's still very, very good. We shouldn't let the player that he was obscure the excellence of the player that he is now.

More seriously--at the start of Jeter's career, and even as recent as a season or tow ago, he looked like a lock for 3,000 hits and good bet for 4,000. This season has raised some warning flags. If he starts to decline in earnest, he will still probably get to 3,000, but in what will be (or should be) his last season.

On the other hand, if rebounds a little he could put up some very interesting career numbers.

I am probably too optimistic about Jeter, as I have shown this season (though if anyone scrolls back through old threads they will find more than prediction by me that he would end the season at .300/.360/.410/.770/~110 OPS+. That's looking like a pretty good guess right now, eh?). But I have a sneaking suspicion that he has one more great season in him, or at least very good.

It might be my imagination but the score of the Yankees game, especially when they win, is usually last on the ESPN crawl -- and I'm pretty sure the results linger on-screen longer (accompanied by a laugh track) when they lose. At least the ESPN snakes are consistent (in my imagaination) I'll give them that.

Jeter's consistent. Andy's consistent. Their reliablity (dependability if there's a difference) has made them very easy to root for all these years.

Of course, that would only be a 105 OPS+ this season. But y'all get my drift...

Now, as my dad said to me last night, they need to go on a big winning streak, or they are probably toast.

In my mind, he's been the most exciting player I've ever seen. A career that has been well above average, a solid citiczen, a mascot for the "dynasty" years. I don't want to see Jeter playing anywhere else, and that would lead me to want to carry him, even after his production falls off.

Part of the reason that I'm a baseball fan is because I like watching the Yanks win, but part of it is the "intangible" stuff the aesthetics, the continuity.

One of my favorite sayings is "Things Fall Apart." Circumstance isn't permanance and we should be careful not to fall too much in love with transient things.

This season is a good reminder of that. But when Jeter is gone, I will miss him a lot.

My biggest worry is up-the-middle defense...

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

6 nice senitment schteeve.

and well said about derek all.

I also don't understand how he could get to 3,000 by next year. Even if you gave him 100 more this season (which would smash his season high), Jeter would still need 400 more in 2009 to reach 3,000.

I can't read Jeter's mind, but I get the impression that he tries harder especially when A-Rod gets in those funks.

So, to keep up, Jeter would have to get up to 191 hits this year (which is reachable) and then average 207 for the next 4 years. It's that last part that's not very likely at all, of course. Forgetting even the signs of decline we're seeing this year, he's only had two seasons where he hit more than 207 in his career so far.

Next year will tell us a ton about where he'll end up on the career list. Bill James "Favorite Toy" predicts he'll end up at 3266 (assuming he makes 191 hits this year) - mostly because it assumes he'll play for only another 3.6 seasons. Then again, it would have predicted Rose to end up at 3285, so you know there's a reason James refers to it as a "toy".

Derek Jeter (1,252) needs 18 hits in the final 16 home games to pass Lou Gehrig (1,269) for most hits EVER in Yankee Stadium.