Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Here's what I wrote about tonight's pitching matchup in my series preview on Friday:
ESPN's Sunday night game pits Sidney Ponson against Jon Lester. Lester is one of the great stories of this season, having rebounded from non-Hodgkins lymphoma to not only throw a no-hitter, but have a great season overall. Lester has a 3.20 ERA on the season, a 2.93 ERA at home, and needed just 105 pitches to shutout the Yankees on five hits and two walks while striking out eight in his only start against the Bombers this season. That said, he's been inconsistent of late. Lester's no-hitter came in the middle of a run of 11 starts from the end of April to late June in which the lefty posted a 2.13 ERA. Since then, however, he's alternated dominant starts (including his shutout of the Yankees) with non-quality outings. If the pattern holds, he's due for a stinker, but his dominance of the Yankees in their last meeting and overall success this season is the better indicator of what he's likely to do Sunday night.That means Ponson has his work cut out for him. Before his last start, I wrote that Ponson's surprisingly successful season has been the result of a sharp increase in his groundball rate. The problem is that Fenway Park has a notoriously hard infield, which can cause trouble for groundball pitchers (Chien-Ming Wang's career ERA at Fenway is 5.11, and in his complete-game two-hitter there this April, he got more outs in the air than on the ground). Ponson hasn't faced the Red Sox this year, but historically, the Sox's lineup owns him (David Ortiz: .444/.563/.722; Manny Ramirez: .404/.481/.511; Jason Varitek: .317/.364/.561; Kevin Youkilis: 4 for 9 with a double; J.D. Drew: 3 for 7 with a double; Dustin Pedroia: 3 for 3), the only exception being Mike Lowell, who is 0 for 7 with a walk against Ponson. Lester would have to implode completely for the Yankees to overcome what's likely to happen to Ponson on Sunday night.
That means the Yankees hopes for a series win lie in the first two games . . .
Everything's gone according to plan thus far. The Yankees got a dominant outing from Joba Chamberlain on Friday night and a quality start from Andy Pettitte buoyed by ten runs of support yesterday to take the first two games and thus the series, but with them having done that, pushing their second-half record to a perfect 9-0 and closing their deficit to the Red Sox in the Wild Card race to just one game . . . doesn't it seem possible that they just mind find away to win tonight despite all of what I said above?
Here's another question: If on Opening Day I told you that, on the final weekend in July, Yankees would be on the verge of a three-game sweep at Fenway that would tie them with the Red Sox in the standings, and that the lineup they were running out in an attempt to win that game featured Xavier Nady, Richie Sexson, Jose Molina, and Sidney Ponson in place of Hideki Matsui, Jason Giambi, Jorge Posada, and either Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, or Ian Kennedy, (or anyone else, really), what would your reaction have been? Elation? Disgust? Confusion? Frustration? Shock? Concern?
The game's being threatened by rain, but if it's the storm that passed through New Jersey this afternoon, it won't last too long. Given the ESPN start time and the team's involved, any kind of delay at the start should push the end of the game well past midnight.
http://www.bb-ref.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200608182.shtml
BTW, might want to keep tabs on the AAA game tonight. Aceves vs. Liriano
0 elation at the 3 game sweep of course - consternation probably sums up the rest of it
travis08, i am hoping tto see an updated yankee winning percentage leaders tonight with snacks moving on up
Shaddup, John Sterling. Love, Chyll Will >;)
Personally, i would have thought something would have to have gone horribly wrong to get to that lineup, but as it was, it was more like annoyingly mediocre...
I've lost my dignity already bubbling to friends about the comeback. Shock is definitely the word.
Except the left reliever. I feel like we're always trading near the deadline for a reliever.
0.857 Sidney Ponson 6-1
0.833 Tyler Clippard 5-1
0.750 Aaron Small 9-3
0.727 Randy Keisler 8-3
0.700 Joba Chamberlain 7-3
0.695 Chien-Ming Wang 66-29
0.683 David Wells 84-39
0.667 Jon Lieber 18-9
0.667 Jose Contreras 18-9
0.667 Esteban Loaiza 4-2
Trivia question: Who is the only Yankees pitcher with at least 3 starts since 1995 who did not start in a Yankees win?
"However, if Girardi decides he now has a matchup lefty and starts managing batter-by-batter in the late-innings, it's going to put a previously non-existent strain on the bullpen and could actually hurt the unit as a whole."
And sure enough, that's exactly how he used Marte yesterday.
Granted, if there's any situation where you'd want to use batter-by-batter matchups, that was the one: Ortiz and Manny, with a chance to put the Sox right back in the game. I'm willing to let that one slide, but I hope it doesn't become a habit.
I also hope you're less prescient in your Nady-Craig Wilson comparison.
We'll know more in a few appearances how he plans to use Marte regularly.
Since it worked out, nobody's complaining, obviously.
Does anybody wish we could have had tonight's Washburn start? He handled the Jays nicely.
I think I'm going to miss every bit of the game, dammit. I have to drive to Logan airport, wait for my wife, and drive home. Her flight was delayed, and now the game is delayed by the same amount. I'll have to listen on the radio, flipping back and forth between the Sox station and John & Suzyn.
it's like the loogy is a toy that these managers just have to have even if a lhrp shouldn't be a loogy.
Wishful thinking...
Plus, there's Ortiz's splits.
Does one of those tendencies win out? Or do they average? Or is there no general answer?
I'd like to see Nady give me some hope.
37 A rainout would be made up either on August 25 or during the final weekend of the season.
BTW, is Dari Norkhah Karl Ravech's evil doppelganger?
Sorry, I was just filling for OldYanksFan there.
Especially in the non-DH league?
If the Angels didn't already have an OF full of bad contracts, I could see them doing 5yrs/$20M per. But who else in the AL would pay that?
ugh dustbin with the immediate hit.
it wouldn't be a ponson game without a bunch of guys on base
If Ponson was a pro golfer, he'd a poorman's Ernie Els - one scrambling sonofabitch. In and out of trouble all night long.
And before anyone says anything, I've had a very close relative die from Cancer, so I respect what Lester has done; I just want to know when they'll start talking about him as a pitcher and not a cancer survivor.
;o)
thankfully the black hole that is varitek is around.
Can Christian play CF? Because sheesh, Melky looked bad that last PA.
And Gardner pretty much sucked while he was up here.
Still, when I see ABs like that one, I'd rather have Brett up.
Does Melky want to get traded?
god i hate the NFL..is there anything more irritating than arrogant head coaches?
Pavano's name was on the graphic.
ESPN chuckleheads.
UGH.
1. We started after the ASB 8-1. We'd all have agreed to that back on July 13
2. We've won this series 2 games to 1...on the road.
3. We will leave Boston 3 games out of first and only 2 games behind Boston. I'll take that too.
4. Maybe, just maybe, Ponson can give up 10 more runs and get DFA'd and we can either go get Washburn (though I don't want to give up prospects) or start trying the minor league kids again.
5. Tampa has 16 or 19 games in September against Boston and the Yankees. We'll see how damn good they are then.
http://tinyurl.com/65hyzr
(Where does deadspin find this stuff?)
(And apologies to the ladies and anyone else who might mind.)
Derek killed us last inning, but we'll fight back.
I have a good feeling.
Alex and Robby will step up.
http://tinyurl.com/5sl9ud
Fuck.
That's a bit of a back-breaker.
They're killing me.
seriously, I hope we don't panic and roll over to them. They won't be competitive for 10 years, so why cow-tow to them? Let them pay him the $9 per year he's got coming.
Unless you just go by Gameday or the radio.
re : the ads
i just read ken's fairpole post on the sidebar. the ads being in weird places is just a temporary thing and things will go back to normal tomorrow.
hopefully back to normal (post asb form) tomorrow applies to the yanks as well.
they show TWIB here dubbed in Japanese..doesn't have the same effect as when I was 10 years old..
Ponson pitching his way to a DFA!
Thanks Melky
http://tinyurl.com/5rfz36
;)
We've already won this series; if a miracle somehow happened, Boston might collapse.
the yanks have squandered a few chances early on, but seem to be taking more advantage of risp this inning - jeter with a squibbly little hit and abreu walked with the bases loaded
I know Arod hit a bullet, but both he and Nady had to make Lester throw a strike. Both batters bad approach could have cost the Yankees a chance to come back in this game.
And, yes, I agree that it's time to fire meacham -- I just think that fly was awfully shallow.
Nady gets a pass for a week or so...but man, his at bats have not been good so far.
Dear Mr. Ponson,
That was called an out. You're supposed to get those, without allowing baserunners and runs.
Regards,
Yankee Fans Everywhere
do we get to ditch Sir Sidney now?
The fact is the boys shit the bed with the bases loaded and none out. boo.
23 omg have you missed a lot. first he was on that surreal life crap and then he and brigitte nelson had some spin off show then there was some riduculous dating show with him twice. i feel ashamed even talking about it, so that's it :}
When Pitcher X shows up, they will send Rasner down, since he still has options.
In fact, in one episode of the dating show (where a bunch of women try to be HIS girl), one of the female contestants literally Shit her pants (just like the Yanks did in the 5th).
He was always a messy contradiction as the motormouth for one of the most popularly militant rap groups, though, so such is life.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=GofbAn-BXvE
http://tinyurl.com/6mc4n7
http://tinyurl.com/6mc4n7
Also, the Yankees kind of were a .500 team 14 days ago, so I am not sure how my statement is relevant, especially when you consider they may have played better before then had Wang been healthy.
Of course, all of our games are important, but in terms of the WC, I believe we will be chasing TB.
any news on Manny being traded?
I'm not sure that makes sense mathematically.
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.
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I know it's probably perception over reality, but do the Yankees always lose on Sunday Night Baseball?
William, chief, I usually agree with you on most things, but how many Lis Franc injuries have been caused since inter-league started because an AL pitcher was running the bases? I think that the answer is 1 and the person was Wang.
I believe it was a freak injury. AND IIRC, it was a 1-0 or 2-0 game at the time and it was still a little in doubt. Really he should have been able to walk home almost. I just don't think you can account for those kinds of injuries.
All that being said, I agree with Hank. It's time for the DH in both leagues.
William, chief, I usually agree with you on most things, but how many Lis Franc injuries have been caused since inter-league started because an AL pitcher was running the bases? I think that the answer is 1 and the person was Wang.
I believe it was a freak injury. AND IIRC, it was a 1-0 or 2-0 game at the time and it was still a little in doubt. Really he should have been able to walk home almost. I just don't think you can account for those kinds of injuries.
All that being said, I agree with Hank. It's time for the DH in both leagues.
http://tinyurl.com/5k3cfj
In any case, you set up a sort of false dichotomy: just because something can be easily prevented does not necessarily make it not a freak occurrence.
Math aside, my point was that if the Rays can't win a series against the Royals, then maybe they wont stick around in the race after all?
Did he just say that?
Also, I believe it was already 4-0 and Wang was the 5th, which against the Astros is a blowout.
None of this makes any sense. The Yankees will make the playoffs if the win more games than the other teams in the division, or if they have the most wins of any team that does not win a division.
It does not matter against whom the wins come or against whom the competitors' losses come (though head-to-head games of course do "double duty"). The Rays loss today is neither more valuable or not than any other loss. And so on.
Now, the fact that the Rays seem to be slipping badly of late, and have lost to some poor teams may be indicative--as you say--that they will fade in the long run.
1) The bright lights of ESPN
2) Facing Ponson and Giese
2006 128
2007 162 (includde post-season)
2008 139 (which includes 7 innings tonight)
It appears to me that if they have him on roughly a 30 inning per year progression, that he's got about 53 innings left in his arm for 2008. Assuming 6 innings per start, he's got 8 starts left in his arm this season. (of course, if he keeps pitching 7 innings per start, it may be more like 7 starts).
So, it seems like Lester would either have to miss some starts in August or September or he's going to exceed the 30 inning progression, which I have to ASSUME the Sox follow. Or, maybe they could make an appointment with Dr. Andrews.
If the season ends and the Yankees lead the Rays by one game for the WC, the Rays two loses against the Royals will not be more important than the Yankees two wins against the Red Sox.
We're not going to win every game. When we do lose, I think it's nice if our competitors lose too.
I didn't say the Rays losing was more important than the Yankees winning. I said the Rays losing (and ONLY the Rays losing) could not only impact the standing but also be a sign of a swoon. If that still implies that I think the Rays two losses literally count more, I'll just plead guilty for using bad math.
So, yes, if the Yankees lose today it's nice if the Rays the lose. But if they win, it does not make the Yankees loss 'worse'. Because over 162 game season, you're going to gain a game or two or lose a game or two all the time. What matter's is at the end of 162 games, your team has won more games. It doesn't matter on what days your wins or their losses come.
Put another way, with every win and every loss, our final projection becomes more and more accurate until the games end. I just think our games have become particularly more important now.
And I do understand that if we could turn around what I call the "UGLY 8" losses (the games we should have won already, but lost), then this game wouldn't be that important b/c we'd have a 5 game lead in first place.
Let's say you have a big division lead in August, and then drop five games in a row. You have have less time to recover those five games, but you have a big lead accumulated over the earlier part of the season so you feel the five lesses less acutely.
the only reason the five game losing streak in August seems to hurt the mediocre team more is because they have already wasted the early part of the season by not winning enough games.
But no matter how you slice it, what matters is how many wins you have in October, whether you lost five in a row in April, August, or September--those are still five losses.
the thinking that loses in (and therefore, by extension wins) are less important in the early part of the year frustrates the hell out of me.
Then again, quick games vs LHP has almost been the Yanks' modus operandi this year.
In any case, here's to Jim Dean, who would have complained long and loud about Ponson. Good night, all.
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UPDATE, 10:18 p.m.: You could see this Ponson performance coming down the Massachusetts Turnpike like a speeding truck.
Here's what you do: Leave him out there to suck up three more innings, DFA him tomorrow and trade for Jarrod Washburn. The Yankees were lucky they got what they did out of Ponson. His record is (and was with Texas) totally deceiving.
UPDATE, 10:44 p.m.: Here is what Ponson has done in his last eight starts:
42.2 innings, 67 hits, 29 ER, 18 walks, 6 HR. That's a 6.12 ERA. The Yankees can't keep running him out there every five days. You can get away with Rasner or Ponson, not both. Keep Rasner, DFA Ponson, trade for Washburn, keep Kennedy ready.
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Replace "Washburn" with just about any name not "Kei Igawa", and the point still holds.
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