Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
According to Pete Abe, Dan McCutchen and Jeff Karstens, not Phil Coke and George Kontos, are going to the Pirates in the Nady-Marte deal.
That changes things, at least a little. Before, the only question was about Tabata's value. Now it's about McCutchen's as well
It really doesn't change the trade at all. Dan the Man's upside really isn't very high and there are a lot of guys above him on the depth/upside chart: Hughes, Kennedy, Horne, Acevas, Marquez--and lower down, McAllister, Jones, Betences, and Heredia. They did need to clear up some organizational room, and now there is room for Hughes in AAA when ready, and for Jones to move up. Plus, Horne and Marquez at some point when healthy.
Really, the Yanks should try and ship Coke and Kontos off in another deal now, and clear up even more room...
To put it simply, McCutchen has passed Alan Horne on the organization's list of pitching prospects. McCutchen is just three months older than Horne, has advanced at roughly the same rate since being drafted out of college, has none of Horne's injury history, and has pitched great this season while Horne has struggled to even take the field. McCutchen's career ERA is also more than a run lower than Horne's.
This also means the Yankees have traded three members of their triple-A rotation, thus greatly reducing their options should Ponson or Rasner stumble. One of the areas I said was a disappointment for the Yankees in my first-half review was the collection of major league ready rotation reinforcements. McCutchen and Ohlendorf appeared to be possible solutions to that problem. Losing the lesser pitcher, Ohlendorf, didn't hurt, but losing both does.
My main beef with the trade before was that it cost one of the Yankees' two main position prospects. If this report is true, that means the team sent a player whom I believe is more likely to be good (McCutchen), but at a position where the Yankees have surplus. Meanwhile, they keep the position player with (maybe?) higher upside, but (probably) a better chance of being a washout.
Effectively this amounts to two big prospects (possible bust Tabata and rising stock McCutchen) for Nady?
Yeah, now this is looking not very good.
I also wonder if this means that the organization will finally decide to shelve Matsui and Posada for the season.
In any case, as you say without saying, sooner or later the wheels are going to fall off the Ponson lunch wagon, and Rasner has not exactly dominated. Unless they feel that IPK is more or less ready to fill in, immediate pitching help at AAA has just been weakened a lot.
Does this mean that ANOTHER deal is in the works?
10 I do wonder if the Washburn deal might still happen.
I repeat, for next year or two the Yankees, with deep pockets for free agents, are not looking to their deeper AAA guys as major factors. They ARE watching Phil and I hope still high on IPK as a major leaguer, if back end.
I don't see a Washburn deal as at all affected by this one. It happens if Seattle treats it as a salary dump and if it is Wash for Igawa this is good for NY. Major, no. Useful, yes.
I think Nady and Marte are potentially very significant this year (think Nady over Gardner, remember). This team is 2 games out of the WC, 3 out of first right now. We haven't exactly sold the farm for two current big leaguers.
8 No. Do not forget the two draft picks for Marte if we let him go. And I think it is just wrong to worry about adding a good arm in the pen. Girardi might not know what to do with all of them? I'm no big Joe G fan, but really...
AND one must assume Boston, Tampa Bay, L.A. are all considering upgrades, too.
Yahoo Sports and SI.com
However, this is a deal made entirely for the short term. They have a chance this year, and there's a pretty good argument in favor of going for it. In the long term - Cashman's Plan - the best one can say is that it probably doesn't hurt too much. I don't think Nady will turn into Craig Wilson, but I expect that next year he'll be a perfectly decent outfielder, nothing more. This team is facing some problems over the next couple of years; Nady fills a position, but he doesn't solve any problems.
As a short-term fix for the pennant drive, this is fine. But my criticisms of Cashman's long-range planning (which might have made this deal unnecessary) still hold, and still matter. There's still a lot of work to be done for next year and beyond.
No, this trade hinges on Nady for McC/Tabata. I think that this might be a steep price to pay. Not unimaginably bad, but a steep price nonetheless.
And I do think that this move may relate to a potential Washburn trade. By emptying the AAA roster, the Yankees have little insurance for a staff that still features Sydney Ponson. I simply refuse to believe that Cash and Co. think that Ponson is for real, or that Kei Igawa can help this year (or ever).
So, by adding McCutchen, the team is signaling (I think) that another move for a pitcher is on the horizon.
No one knows how the ranking system works, so it's impossible to predict what he'll be this time. My best guess is that he will be type A. His stats are generally about the same this year as they were two years ago, with one "major" exception - he's 4-0 so far this year, 1-7 in 2006. That may well be enough to raise his ranking, but there's just no telling. (It also depends on how all the other relievers do.)
I am not sure why so many think McCutchen represents a huge upgarde in the trade. While his name has been more prominent, he is an almost 26 year old who hasn't dominated AAA. Might he be a useful arm, Yes. Is he a huge upgrade over Coke and Kontos? I don't think so.
Moreover, as Pete Abe just posted, Igawa was waived, cleared waivers, and is now off the 40 man roster. That means that the team does not see him as a viable option.
This only reinforces my belief that there is another deal in the works. The FO would not empty the AAA pitching corps otherwise.
aceves is 1st in line ... or IPK is.
one, or both will be up within a month.
aceves would have been here already except for the groin injury when he was promoted to AAA
after that you've got the likely return of at least one of hughes and wang
in my eyes, this doesn't really change the trade materially at all
mccutcheon is probably the best pitcher of the 4 involved, but karstens is clearly the worst, the net effect is a wash of the pocket lint involved and overall a good move that materially strengthens the yankees this year and probably next.
yes, this likely nady's career year, but even if he reverts to something like his career norm, he's slightly above average ... and he crushes left handed pitching, something we need to balance the lineup.
here are nady's career splits against LHP:
.320 .396 .483 .879
I'm migrating up to the newer thread.
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