Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
JORGE POSADA UPDATE, 11:26 a.m.
Jorge Posada stepped up with the information. The MRI showed that his labrum is worse and that he has capsule damage. He will need surgery and a six-month rehab. However
he will try rehabbing for the next two weeks and consider trying to return as a DH and first baseman.
Posada said the Yankees are willing to have him play again this season even if it means missing part of next season. But if he comes back this season, he won't catch.
"Catching is out of the question," he said.
It seems curious to me that they would not want Posada ready to start next season, especially given how ineffective he was as a hitter. Obviously the injury has hampered his ability at the plate. But we'll see what happens in a few weeks.
So what the hell is he doing trying to rehab? That way we can have another so so hitting DH? Jorgie, please just get the surgery, you can't help this team right now.
Might it also mean that it's very hard for Cashman to find another bat for this year? Any bat can DH and any available bat will be a DH, 1B or OF.
So now, getting 'Harry Honds' also mean getting Posada an extra 2 months of recovery time. I'll bet in 3 weeks, Bonds would be more productive (as a DH) then Posada will be.
If the dealine comes and goes and Posada's surgery is still being delayed, I'm gonna be mighty pissed off.
... instead of signing HE WHO SHALL NOT BE SIGNED.
This is nuts.
Posada already took SIX weeks off to rest his shoulder. The result?
.248/.380/.371, 2 HR in 105 AB
and most of that came the first two weeks back, against awful competition (KC, SD, HOU). He's hit .205/.314/.288, 0 HR since 6/20/08.
I just fail to see how two more weeks of rest is going to do anything.
13 My main concern is that Po could make things worse by rehabbing/playing instead of getting the surgery. Plus, I think the upside of the risk is low, because he hasn't really hit since coming back the last time - it seems to be affecting his swing. So you get a meh DH/1B option at the possible cost of more serious injury to your awesome starting catcher.
16 I agree he shouldn't throw. 1b is a bad idea. Best case, he's a pinch hitter. Let's wait and see if best case is an option is all I'm saying.
Posada as pinch hitter, career:
.223/.339/.330, 124 PA
I have no idea when those appearances have come.
Posada as a DH, career:
.205/.320/.337, 197 PA
I am not as hopeful as you, o' Sunny Sliced. Even with the usual caveats (maybe he only DHs when he's hurting? DOH!) these numbers inspire no hope for me.
So we're hoping he can PH and occasionally DH? How many ABs is that for the rest of the season? You wouldn't play him over Giambi or Damon in that spot the way he's hitting. So we're talking a few platoon DH starts and some PH. Without running the numbers I'm willing to bet that adds up to less than a single win over the rest of the season. Now factor in that any delay adds on to any time he might miss next season. It just doesn't add up to me. If they can't find a guy who can PH at that level I'd be shocked.
37 . Shaun P
32 Posada as pinch hitter, career:
I have no idea when those appearances have come.
I am not as hopeful as you, o' Sunny Sliced.
Good stats, Shaun, but they're from a time when Posada was a starting catcher. Maybe he wasn't successful because he wasn't comfortable in the PH/DH role. In fact, we know he never liked not catching.
Maybe, again BIG IF Posada wants to be a pinch hitter, and his body allows him to do it he'll have more success in the role.
I know it's a longshot, but look at the bottom of the order. If Posada can swing a bat he's not a better option at the plate in a late inning situation?
Let's see. Sparing him the knife right now is not such a terrible thing as I see it.
Giambi, batting .235/.398/.518 against lefties, is benched. Justin Christian makes his first start in two weeks.
On the other side, the Twins continue to bat the catcher 3rd, regardless of who the catcher is.
My fear is with the others: Posada, by trying to hit, makes the shoulder worse. Which makes the recovery period longer - which maybe knocks him out for all of 2009. Which means 2009 includes the "Jose Molina, full time starter!" show EVERY DAY. Which means that, the earliest Posada could maybe become the quasi-regular catcher again is 2010, at 38. Which will never happen.
The downside of my whiches >>> the upside of your ifs. =)
23 As long as Ed Wade and Jim Bowden are around, there is still hope. Not that either of them has anything of value to deal . . . no way the Astros would give up Berkman, not even for 6 relievers.
Ed Wade loves him some relievers, after all.
I shouldn't knock Ed Wade. After all, he was kind enough to sign Tom Gordon, netting the Yanks the picks that turned into IPK and Joba - and he traded Abreu to the Yanks in exchange for pocket lint. We owe him a great deal of gratitude.
It seems to me that that should apply to the veterans as well as the kids. Losing Posada for the first two months of next season seems to me like a very big deal. And considering how low the upside is - a few PH at-bats - I can't see any justification.
26 the question of whether he should hit, or if it will exacerbate his injuries, I'll leave that to the doctors and trainers. If they say he can do further damage by swinging, surgery it is then, no questions asked.
The bottom line is we should sign Bonds yesterday. We really should get a real OFer. But IF Po can swing without further damage, and if he can post a .800 OPS or better, I can see keeping him UNTIL we get another bat. We can NOT replace Po's bat inhouse and make the PS.
We need to stop with the Washburns and Vidros and get some talent. TB will slide. The have many more road games them home games. We should be able to get the WC. But if Po is out, we NEED TO GET ANOTHER BAT!
Damon: 112 PA, .278/.369/.402
Giambi: 108 PA, .235/.398/.518
Why is the Stache sitting?
If teams are going to lose these guys anyway, then to get them now vai trade, should NOT cost too much in terms of players. Is that a fair assumption. If so, WHY DON'T WE HAVE ONE YET? An OFer is both an immediate and future need. We have kids oin the farm to trade. This need is legitimate enough to let go of some kids.
My short list
Matt Hilliday (29) (2010)
Milton Bradley (31)
Jason Bay (29) (2010)
Adam Dunn (29)
Juan Rivera (30)
Brian Giles (38)
Vladimir Guerrero (33)
Milton Bradley (31) - I've got nothing here
Jason Bay (29) (2010) - they are asking the world him because he's cheap next year
Adam Dunn (29) - has limited no trade
Juan Rivera (30) - I'm not sure this is a solution
Brian Giles (38) - team option for next year that's certain to be exercised
Vladimir Guerrero (33) - uh, OYF, the Angels aren't about to trade their best hitter
This is a somewhat misleading juxtaposition. Christian is starting because Gardner has sucked (and because it's a LHP). This has nothing to do with Giambi, and even if the Big 'Stache were in the lineup, Christian would still likely get the start in LF.
Frankly, the way Gardner is hitting, I don't see this as a bad move. Heck, Gardner may be most valuable now as a late inning PR.
On the other hand, Giambi is sitting primarily (it is assumed) because they are facing a LHP. If so, then this is indeed a silly decision.
Unfortunately, are we certain that in the next week the Rangers will decide they can't make the playoffs? They're 6.5 back in the wild card race.
After all, who thought Jason would NOT be injured by he ASB, not to mention having an OPS of .900+. I can't fault Girardi for going easy on Giambi.
Dunn is the most likely, IMO, to be in pinstripes next year - unless the Yankees reach a deal with Abreu.
Read that however you wish.
I would really hope we go in another direction
I'm tired of swings and misses.
remember when soriano was traded from the rangers to the nats? remember how everyone (and i'm in the everyone here) thought that that was a terrible deal and that soriano wouldn't hit at all in washington?
how about when the mariners picked up ibanez? another case of a player with extreme home/away splits going to a much tougher hitting environment. another case of the existing splits not being meaningful at all.
home/away splits are just not thought of as being very predictive when assessing a players future performance anymore ...
If teams are going to lose these guys anyway, isn't their choice:
1) Lose them and get a draft pick or 2
2) Trade them and get 3 or 4 Yankee farm hands.
Am I missing something? If Milton is going to cost a forture and Texas can't keep him, isn't trading him better then holding him?
Or is the direction that you want to move in to acquire players who hit for high average and hit the ball a long way and drive in runs and never strike out? I thinkk every GM wants to do that. The trick is finding 9 or 10 Joe DiMaggios.
Cano... refuses to swing at first pitch dirtball... drives next pitch to left for single.
Cano is very right.
Also note that Soriano did hit better on the road (.912 OPS) than at home (.909 OPS) in 2006; its just that he hit so well overall.
"UPDATE, 1:07 p.m.: The decision to delay surgery for Jorge Posada is being driven, at least partly, by team president Randy Levine according to several people close to the situation. He thinks the Yankees need to get some return on the money they spent on Posada."
Words fail me, and any action would most likely be illegal.
Two things HAVE changed however. First, the WC keeps more teams in it longer, or at least convinced more times that they should not be "sellers." Thus, there are fewer opportunities to pick up good players midseason. Without the WC, teams like Texas or Toronto would have started to dump already.
Second, it seems that more players have NTC, which significantly complicates trade scenarios.
52 And another thing. We agree Holliday will not hit in YS like he does in Coors (career: .365/.428/.663), right? So why pay premium price for him, which is what the Rockies will want?
Everything I've ever heard about Randy Levine has been bad.
Our RFer is currently rockin' a .792 and playing terrible D.
Hmm, I'm warming to Holliday some.
Not the title of the last movie I saw.
what i said is that the statement that holliday "won't hit out of Coors" isn't supported by studies that have been done.
your further qualifications make your position more tenable (though i discount any meaningful effect to league switching) but your original statement is, at the very least, guilty of terrible hyperbole ...
I simply refuse to get worked up over a story whose only evidence is the infamous unnamed "sources close to the situation."
And in any case, Posada is a free man, no? Whatever Levine or whoever says, if he decides to have surgery no one can stop him (or compel him to do so if he doesn't want to).
But I'm not convinced that, based on two examples - Soriano in 2006 and Ibanez since he left KC - that one should throw park effects completely out the window when looking at a hitter. Especially when that hitter plays for the Rockies.
under Adjusted OPS+. Park factor is definitely included.
My method is slightly more complicated, but I think it is more correct. The BPF is set up for runs and the way it is implemented in PRO+ applies it to something other than runs.
1. Compute the runs created for the league with pitchers removed (basic form) RC = (H + BB + HBP)*(TB)/(AB + BB + HBP + SF)
2. Adjust this by the park factor RC' = RC*BPF
3. Assume that if hits increase in a park, that BB, HBP, TB increase at the some proportion.
4. Assume that Outs = AB - H (more or less) do not change at all as outs are finite.
5. Compute the number of H, BB, HBP, TB needed to produce RC', involves the quadratic formula. The idea for this came from the Willie Davis player comment in the Bill James New Historical Baseball Abstract. I think some others, including Clay Davenport have done some similar things.
6.Using these adjusted values compute what the league average player would have hit lgOBP*, lgSLG* in a park.
7. Take OPS+ = 100 (OBP/lgOBP + SLG/lgSLG* - 1)
8. Note, in my database, I don't store lgSLG, but store lgTB and similarly for lgOBP and lg(Times on Base), this makes calculation of career OPS+ much easier
In any case . . . hey, is there a game going on?
Run support, please.
Jesus, why not demand a cadillac, while you're at it.
98 Maybe Mussina should put a pillow under his jersey so that the team thinks that Ponson is pitching...
It's kind of bizarre that they give up fewer runs at home than on the road.
Did you notice the HR to RIGHT field Holliday hit in the ASG? Well back into the seats. The guy can hit. (And I think he is Eckstein gritty).
Ten DiMaggio's would suit me fine, but seriously, I'm just talking about sacrificing power for contact/average.
I'd be happier with a 15-20 HR guy who makes consistent hard contact.
2008: .926 (1st)
2007: .892 (3rd)
2006: .871 (8th)
That's very funny, only, I don't quite see him as cadillacing around, unless you're referring to his fear of walls?
Now let's talk pricetag. What would you give up for him?
I love Bobby at the plate.
Yankees Team Strikeouts
Year: MLB Rank (out of 30), AL Rank (out of 14)
2008: 29, 13
2007: 22, 10
2006: 18, 6
2005: 19, 8
2004: 23, 11
2003: 12, 5
2002: 3, 1
2001: 22, 7
2000: 22, 9
So, this year, the Yankees are NOT striking out very much at all. Yet sadly, they can't score. Moreover, except for 2002-2003, they have consistently been in the lower half of MLB teams for team K and around average or a tick better for AL teams.
Really, strike outs are not the problem. Sacrificing power is kooky talk.
But because PFs are calc'ed yearly, they vary greatly, because the PFs are based are the random performance and composition of players that year.
I would cummulated PFs from each year, and divide by the number of years, so a PF would be more of a historical Stat instead of a purely annual one.
If PF sayd Coors field is a pitchers park, that tells you all you need to know about PF.
96 Your calcs are based on OBP and SLG (not runs scored) which I like. Does BR do the same? ESPNs numbers are garbage.
The team also hit 207 home runs. This team is on pace for 157. That's a huge difference.
There is indisputable evidence that teams that score more runs also strike out more. If you want to watch a good offense, you're going to have to get used to watching strikeouts.
Well, it certainly may be kookytalk; someone's gotta be willing to be kooky around here.
He's my gold standard.
Ah so that's why we got Sexson. For all them strikeouts.
Shit, Cano can't be stopped.
He would have grounded that pitch to second earlier in the season.
I'll take a team full of this kind of hitter any day. Mattingly, Cano.
It just does my heart good.
I would take a team full of Adam Dunn over a team full of Don Mattingly. Given similar pitching staffs, my team would beat your team at least 6 out of every 10 times.
You need to catch up, man! That was a mistake--Coors has an extreme hitters PF this season. See 86 .
But short of physical changes to the ballpark, the PF of any one park should be FIXED.
Wrong! PF measures the parks hitterness/pitcherness relative to the league. So, changes in OTHER parks in the league wil have an impact on a given field's PF regardless of changes to that field.
In general, though, your point has merit. It's beter to look at three-year or five-year PF. Baseball-reference has three-year PFs, IIRC.
I know I shouldn't be that surprised, but...
holy shit! is this a rally, Jose?
I'm pretty sure 86 was a mistake. Coors Field has never played as anything other than a hitter's park, though the humidor has eliminated some offense.
However, the 1990-1991 version of Mattingly was very, very stinky, no matter how rarely he K'd.
What is the REAL difference between the 2?
Here's what I get.
Player B has more 'productive outs' and maybe a few more DPs. So maybe Player B is a tiny, little bit more valuable.
124 Who's more valuable?
Player A: .250 .380 .520 - 180 Ks
Player B: .300 .370 .460 - 60 Ks
And Dunn is better then Player A.
JC >>> Brett Gardner?
Or, for that matter, the '84 Dave Winfield with 19 homers.
I'm really just talking about looking for that Mattingly as the ideal. If you have to settle for Dunn, fine, but I guess I'm saying I'd really make an effort to construct a team according to that ideal rather than according to a high homerun ideal.
Obviously, it's an imperfect world, but Dunn's K totals, as I recall, are really, really high. Not just high, but really high.
I just can't stand to see a guy K with RISP in a tight game.
If one wants to worry about Adam Dunn, isn't his career performance w/RISP the thing to worry about?
I get that you love Donnie Baseball (who here doesn't?), but it's not there are a ton of players out like him just waiting to picked up. In fact, there probably aren't any. To expect the Yankees to try to build a club of Mattingly's just isn't realistic.
With the exception of maybe Pujols, all hitters have some flaw. But strikeouts are not a major one if a player can get on base and slug.
Dunn seems to have the same OPS regardless of game situation throughout his career:
The thing to worry about with Dunn, from the stats, is that he's been an awful second-half player most of his career, especially in August/September.
Again, I am not disputing that Mattingly 1984/1985/1986 is a sort of gold standard. And of course teams try to build teams according to an ideal. But how many Good Vintage Matinglys are there? How many DiMaggios?
It seems to me unrealistic to avoid an Adam Dunn, especially with this season's dismal offense, because he's not Mattingly 1985.
One last thought, then I grow weary with this. I too get frustrated when a batter Ks with RISP. But I get just as frustrated by weak ground balls and pop ups and double plays. I alo get frustrated with a team that collects endless singles but can't scor because they never get long hits.
What you really want is a player who never fails to drive in runs. Don't we all.
Fuck yeah, Moose! Way to hold down the fort.
Moose looks at Moose with the evil eye.
I thought I'd read that his stats w/RISP were - for his career - bad. I guess not.
The 2nd half thing... yeah, we don't want to trade for April-June Robbie Cano. This team kinda needs 2nd-half 2006 Bobby Abreu.
OK, one more comment. As I like to point out, Babe Ruth was in the top 10 in Ks every year of his career from 1918 to 1935; he was first or second in the league 12 times.
if you've never read firejoemorgan.com, you're missing out. also, they are constantly defending mr. dunn.
here is an example:
Moose could implode down the stretch and we're all back in favor of wiping his salary off the payroll as we were in ST...
Come on, Alex!
Whooooo! Adam Dunn!
(Do I have to like it, too?)
In Soviet Russia, outs strike you.
Top 15 Strikeout years.
2004 Adam Dunn, Reds
1970 Bobby Bonds, Giants
2002 Jose Hernandez, Brewers
1969 Bobby Bonds, Giants
2000 Preston Wilson, Marlins
1987 Rob Deer, Brewers
1986 Pete Incaviglia, Rangers
2001 Jose Hernandez, Brewers
2001 Jim Thome, Indians
1990 Cecil Fielder, Tigers
2003 Jim Thome, Phillies
2000 Mo Vaughn, Angels
1975 Mike Schmidt, Phillies
1986 Rob Deer, Brewers
2001 Richie Sexson, Brewers
i just spit my water all over the place.
I must say I'm disappointed my old pal Steve Balboni's not on the list.
After a 3 game sweep of Oakland
After a 3 game sweep of Minn
Next? Boston. BRING IT ON!!!!!
That barely makes any sense, I realize.
(Bows in awe)
Adam Dunn today: 2-4, 1HR, 2R, 5 RBI, 1K!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oddly, he's had only 10 PAs with the Yanks and 7 of them have been with RISP.
after all, the dark one works in powers of deception!
So Moose is now 8th in the AL in ERA. Not bad for a ol' junk baller. Who knew he'd be this good this year?
Which is more fun to see on a strikeout?
- 95mph+ fastball, wiffed on
- 95mph+ fastball on outer half of plate, looked at
- 80mph changeup/curve, looked at
- 80mph chanegup/curve, badly missed
I used to think I loved seeing the Joba-type strikeout where the batter's swinging above his head, but the older I get, I think I'm deriving more satisfaction from the ones that Moose has been dealing out lately...
That Moose/Torre moment was really one of the great moments of the decade.
In those dark times to come, there will be no beauty or joy or intangibles.
Does Moose go 8? Or...
LaTroy and then Giese?
No question. I love it when they look foolish hacking helplessly.
Bravo, Mike Mussina.
Moose ain't done yet.
OK, that was just mean...
moose hates winning. always has.
289 Just Google 'Michael Kay' and 'Mussina', you'll figure it out from the results...
Looking at the schedules, the Sox have to be the favorites to win the division, but TB could struggle.
Yankees/Sox on national TV Saturday and Sunday, so don't make any plans guys.
What's his pitch count?
I've never been so happy to be wrong in my entire life!
I kinda feel bad for LaTroy, he's the only one in the bullpen that hasn't been dusted by the bullpen fairy's magic pixie dust.
Then again, I'm sure he cries himself to sleep at night on his giant pile of money.
I had to leave the office and was stuck with Sterling and Waldman. At ~2:29PM, Sterling almost got me killed. As I was driving, he said, and I quote, "Now, I don't want to be a cliche master here, but . . . " at which point I began laughing so hard I almost drove off the road.
He also later mentioned how great a defender Sexson was, and completely changed his voice to say "leather" - which made me think of 76 and, again, almost caused me to drive off the road. Comedy gold.
LaTroy is not long for this team, so why even throw him out there anymore?
This is the stupidity of the save rule in effect. The only reason to turn to Mo here is because of the "save situation"
If Hawkins is DFA'd and then released, any team picks him up pays him the prorated league minimum, but the Yankees also pay him what they owe him the rest of this season.
Here he comes.
I don't see how having Mo throw to one batter is wasting him.
Start spreading the news...
I'm leaving today...
San Francisco here I come.
Mariano Rivera, ladies and gentlemen.
Glory be to Mo. And Moose.
The wikipedia page is pretty accurate and a good source:
Frankly, if it were me, once Hawkins got to two outs I would have let him pitch to another couple of batters. Then, if things got dire, I would have gone to Mo.
His pitching is a revelation; were there no such stat as the save, his pitching would still be drop-dead gorgeous.
Goose should just worry about Goose.
391 I can't wait to check it out the morning after! Hopefully he gets there by Monday morning.
A good combination.
Never shall we see another.
Can we just bask in the glory while we can, without getting (too) hung up on terms of usage?
Or at least that's the way I would argue it...
399 Can't we pretend its not true?
Umm, for those who like baseball in general, you should go take a look at some of the other box scores from the games going on.
I will say nothing more.
I LOVE that guys still call Joe T. Front office or not, Joe is still aprt of the family.
'Just spoke to Brian Cashman, who said the decision on Posada involves everybody from the trainers on up to ownership. He feels that Posada would fill a need the team has now "better than anything I can get in a trade" so he wants to see whether rehab is possible.'
I may have called that one right.
Not to say that he wasn't very good. Just some perspective.
The big galut.
As for Manny, I was looking forward to seeing his antics, and not very scared of his bat, so, too bad. (On the other hand the BoSox bench is pretty thin, so whoever fills in will be worse than even 75% of Manny.)
"Up next is a trip to Boston, with the Yankees taking their mediocre 23-23 road record into Fenway Park for three games starting Friday."
Umm, 'mediocre'..? Try second best road record in the American League!
What was it they were saying on Fox a couple weeks ago... every pitcher with 100 more wins than loses is in the Hall of Fame and Mussina has 113 more wins than loses.
So, being on par with Mussina is not too shabby, yes.
I just saw them take on the...the...the Rock Cats a couple of weeks ago, but that was, I believe, AA. Gardenhire's son was on Portland.
those hopes of diminished power due to the wrist injury i was clinging to seem to have vanished.
Those are the road records, respectively, of the Rays and the Red Sox.
In fact, only the Yanks and the Angels are .500 or better on the road in the AL.
Ortiz didn't get a hit. But as YFinB says, he did just fine in his rehab stint overall.
I suppose you could say that he's been in decline against NYY since 2006, but it's still pretty scary.
it's the RIPPER vs the RAPPER!
i'm so SMRT, smart!
Seriously, why didn't the M's use a pinch runner last inning? A stolen base or a sac bunt would have won them the game in the 11th.
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