Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
It's free week over at Baseball Prospectus, where Will Carroll weighs in on Jorge Posada's predicament:
Posada does not have a full-thickness tear (or rupture,) but according to sources there was significant damage in at least two of the four muscles, though there will be another set of images taken on Tuesday to gauge whether playing for the past few weeks has aggravated the issue. Most of the damage was focused in the subscapularis and was described as "moderate," a diagnosis that was agreed on by Andrews, David Altchek, and Yankees team physician Stuart Hershon. Posada is scheduled to see Dr. Altchek again after this imaging to make a determination about surgery. All indications are that that's what will be necessary, but there's still some question about whether he'll have it now and be ready for next season, or wait until after the season and put part of 2009 in jeopardy.There continues to be some question about how Posada's situation has been managed. He appears to have tried to play through it, with Joe Girardi—the former Yankees backstop who started ahead of Posada earlier in his career—not 'allowing' Posada to play through pain. Yet Posada told the press that "it hurts to throw, and I can't catch like this" on Monday. He can hit, but if his or the team's insistence on catching has caused an exacerbation, it's clear that this was mismanaged. For a team willing to sign Richie Sexson, playing Posada at first base or designated hitter should have been an option. If Posada elects to have surgery, he should be able to return, though the impact on his throwing will be seen well into 2009, raising these same questions again.
Most of the Yankee fans I've heard from agree: time to go under the knife, Jorge.
http://tinyurl.com/6l5jov
is a video clip of a press conference/interview with Alan Nathan on his analysis of Pitch f/X data. Here are two startling (to me) results.
First, a 'hanging curve' breaks as much as a good curve. The difference is in the release point. I find that absolutely shocking.
Second, when a fastball is thrown on the outside part of the plate, there is almost no difference in a batter's ability to hit a 95 mph heater and an 85 mph pitch. On the inside part, there's a big difference.
Po's bat, even diminished by his injury, is far too valuable to write off at this point in my opinion. Two weeks won't make a big difference in his recovery from surgery, but it could save his bat for this playoff run.
The fastball data is interesting. You would think that the 85 would be more hittable anywhere. Personally, I always felt like I could see an outside pitch better. Then again, I didn't even start on my high school team.
It must have something to do with the inside ball being closer to you-even if it's harder, you just have to be quick to get to it-there's less judging to be done. Maybe you just have to decide sooner on an inside fastball.
On "Georgie", he is the one Yankee, along with Captain Amazing, who makes my blood run cold with men on base in the late innings. As a Sox fan, I selfishly want to see him sitting next to Waldman and Sterling as much as possible-but realistically, as a baseball fan, I hope he can get well and get back out there. He's a classy dude.
http://tinyurl.com/6e4qae
Looks like ol Craig Breslow is remarkable only for his biochemistry and stem cell research, not for having one balk and two wild pitches in the same game...
http://schteeve.wordpress.com/2008/07/21/the-heart-of-the-matter/
Posada isn't helping the team too much with his diminished bat, and I'd hate to see him risk portions of next year as well by postponing the surgery.
Get well now, Po. Damn.
Toward the end of the clip, the Dr. seems to be saying (although he doesn't clearly and directly refer to the hanging curve, so maybe I'm mixing references) that the different release point allows hitters to recognize it better. But, I'd swear on a stack of bibles that I can tell a hanging curve from a regular one just from the centerfield camera shot, which doesn't show the release point at all. Maybe the break is the same, but the movement looks altogether different and seems like it should be easier to get good wood on.
Any explanations?
Trading quality prospects for a lefty specialist out of the bullpen is a bad idea.
Washburn is league-average at best, but way better than Igawa and not as reliant on magic pixie dust as our current #5 guy.
The lefty reliever rumors are worse. Fuentes, at least, is a free agent, and so could bring a draft pick or two. But Mahay is 37, and under contract for 2 more years and $8M! With all the arms the Yanks have, what do they need Mahay for?
Ortiz is not that scary, o sportswriters of the world.
I saw one comment at USS Mariner about how the Yankees, in addition to Washburn, could use Ibanez and Johjima as well. And, I could see that trade happening and I threw up in my mouth a little bit.
If you think IPK and Hughes will be good pitchers next year, then the roster spot and the dough are bad. But it's not all that expensive and would be a nice insurance policy. I'm in favor.
that seems fair.
20 I don't think any GM in baseball (outside of maybe Ed Wade) is stupid enough to trade for Johjima.
Ibanez . . . maybe he isn't a bad idea. He's another lefty bat, but for whatever reason, has a reverse split this year. He's a free agent, and his salary the rest of the way would be < $2M, so if he didn't work out, the Yanks could easily DFA him . . .
Two unappealing choices at the GM barbeque: the burger that fell into the fire (Washburn), or the burger that fell into the sand before it was cooked (Igawa).
I'll take the charred ruins of a burger, I suppose. But can't we call it an even trade? I mean, in theory, Igawa has upside.
Ketchup?
As long as they don't give up much talent, that would be great. Defense might not be a plus, but if Damon could play CF (big IF, of course), Ibanez in LF would certainly improve the lineup. The Mariners might take Melky.
Also, worth considering is that even though Washburn is an upgrade over Rasner and his contract is canceled out by the Igawa money, there is the opportunity cost of not acquiring someone who is at least a little better.
BTW, when do we get CMW back?
32 Right...if they refuse to use him, then you might as well trade him. I guess I am still holding out hope that Britton will get a chance.
Washburn... you know, I think I'd rather roll with Rasner, or yet another callup. I have to admit that Igawa + nobody important isn't much of a price to pay.
No other LF is worse than -4 (raw not rate).
34 Hopefully September...by the way, I really hate Bobby Meacham.
http://tinyurl.com/5wljhc
http://tinyurl.com/6ear89
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