Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
As the second-half begins, the surprising A's are a game ahead of the Yankees in the Wild Card race and, like the Yankees, are six games behind in their division. Oakland's success to this point has been almost entirely due to its pitching and defense, the latter of which boasts the best defensive efficiency in baseball. True, the A's get a big boost in run prevention from their home park, but only the Braves have allowed fewer runs per game on the road, which isn't the best news for the Yankee offense, which really needs to hit the ground running in the second half.
Continuing to rebuild despite their unexpected run, the A's have, in the last ten days, traded three of their top six pitchers by innings pitched. Joe Blanton, who was dealt to the Phillies yesterday for a trio of minor leaguers, is no big loss. His 4.96 ERA was the worst on the staff and the worst in the A's rotation by nearly a run and a half. Twenty-four-year-old lefty Dallas Braden, who had a rough rookie season last year but has continued to pitch well at triple-A, should be able to replace Blanton in the rotation with little difficulty.
Less clear-cut was the earlier deal that sent fragile ace Rich Harden and swing man Chad Gaudin to the Cubs. I understand why the A's traded Harden. Though immensely talented, Harden has been unable to stay healthy. After an injury-shortened 2005 campaign, he made just 13 starts in the 2006 and 2007 seasons combined and missed more than a month at the beginning of this season with a shoulder strain. After returning from the DL, however, he dominated over 11 starts (2.59 ERA, 77 K in 66 IP), and Billy Beane cashed him in while he was still healthy. I get that. After losing all of that time to injury, Harden is now 26 and starting to get expensive (the long-term deal he signed before the 2005 season pays him $4.5 million this year and has a $7 million option for 2009). I get that. What I don't get is the fact that Beane also included Chad Gaudin in the deal and only got back two aging prospects and one young low-risk/low-reward pitcher.
That's not to make Gaudin out to be something he's not. He's a short, 25-year-old righthander with a league-average career ERA, who fell something short of that in his only full season as a starter last year. Gaudin's also in his arbitration years. Still, given his innings-eater/swing-man role, he's unlikely to get terribly expensive (he settled for $1.775 million this past winter). Thus, Gaudin was an established and affordable major league arm that could have served as a safety net for younger starting options such as Braden or Gio Gonzalez (part of the Nick Swisher swag) as the A's continue to try to establish their next generation of starters.
The pitcher obtained from the Cubs, 22-year-old righty Sean Gallagher, who will pitch Sunday, replaces Harden in the rotation, but he was merely average in ten starts for the Cubs, and despite his youth, isn't projected to get much better than that (though he did ace his A's debut: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 7 K). In making that swap, Beane was trading fragile brilliance for ordinary dependability.
Still, it could well pay off for him. Harden could go Mark Prior on the Cubs and their pitcher-hating manager, Lou Piniella, in which case Beane will have upgraded from Gaudin to Gallagher and gotten a couple of useful pieces for his trouble. And Matt Murton and Eric Patterson are useful pieces. Unused in Chicago, Murton has gone straight into the A's lineup as their left fielder. Once the Red Sox prospect who accompanied Nomar Garciaparra to the Cubs in that famous three-way deadline deal in 2004, Murton is now 26, but still a high-on-base righty slugger, and the A's are likely hoping he'll become another Jack Cust if given proper exposure. Fact is, Murton could be better than Cust, as he's younger, hits for a better average, and doesn't strike out nearly as much.
Patterson, meanwhile, receives high marks for his well-rounded offensive game, but his cumulative offensive value is such that his ultimate position will have a great deal of impact on his overall worth. A poor defensive second baseman, Patterson could wind up in the outfield like his older brother Corey, but the A's have him at the keystone in triple-A, and likely envision him as a replacement for pending free agent Mark Ellis. A career .303/.366/.475 hitter in the minors who will steal 20-plus bags a year at a decent clip, Patterson's obvious comp is Ray Durham, himself a former Athletic. Patterson's no kid--a college product, he's 25--but he doesn't have many major league miles, so he should be a cheap alternative to Ellis this winter and for several years to come.
Still, if Harden leads the Cubs to their first World Series in 63 years and goes on to pick up a Cy Young or two, all of which are very likely if he can only stay healthy, Beane's return is going to look awfully light.
As it pertains to this series, the Yankees benefit from not running right into Harden out of the break, but also would have been better off facing Blanton tonight. Facing Gallagher on Sunday splits the difference to a certain degree. In place of Blanton, the Yanks face rookie Greg Smith tonight, himself rebuilding booty from the Dan Haren trade (Beane has now traded 60 percent of his 2007 rotation). A 24-year-old lefty, Smith has an ERA nearly a run higher on the road, but that road mark is a still-strong 3.86. Smith gets by on his curve and changeup, but is far from dominating. Over his last six starts, he's posted a 2.78 ERA, but has walked more than he's struck out.
Expect newest Yankee Richie Sexson to get a start against the lefty Smith with Jose Molina continuing to serve as personal catcher for Mike Mussina. That will leave Jason Giambi and Jorge Posada to duke it out over DH duties. The Yankees have never faced smith before and Giambi has faired better against lefties than switch-hitting Posada, but Smith smokes lefties (.205/.250/.265 on the season), so maybe the pitcher's splits trump the hitters' here.
Oakland Athletics
2008 Record: 51-44 (.537)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 56-39 (.585)
Manager: Bob Geren
General Manager: Billy Beane
Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Oakland Coliseum (93/93)
Who's Replaced Whom:
Matt Murton replaces Travis Buck (minors)
Donnie Murphy (DL) replaces Bobby Crosby (DL)
Jack Hannahan (bench) replaces Eric Chavez (DL) at third base
Ryan Sweeney (DL) replaces Chavez on the roster
Sean Gallagher replaces Rich Harden
Dallas Braden (minors) replaces Joe Blanton
Santiago Casilla (DL) replaces Keith Foulke (DL)
Jerry Blevins (minors) replaces Kiko Calero
someone replaces Chad Gaudin
25-man Roster:
1B - Daric Barton (L)
2B - Mark Ellis (R)
SS - Donnie Murphy (R)
3B - Jack Hannahan (L)
C - Kurt Suzuki (R)
RF - Emil Brown (R)
CF - Carlos Gonzalez (L)
LF - Matt Murton (R)
DH - Jack Cust (L)
Bench:
L - Ryan Sweeney (OF)
R - Rajai Davis (OF)
R - Gregorio Petit (IF)
S - Rob Bowen (C)
Rotation:
R - Justin Duchscherer
R - Sean Gallagher
L - Dana Eveland
L - Greg Smith
Bullpen:
R - Huston Street
L - Alan Embree
R - Santiago Casilla
R - Andrew Brown
R - Brad Ziegler
L - Dallas Braden
L - Jerry Blevins
15-day DL: L - Eric Chavez (3B), R - Bobby Crosby (SS), R - Frank Thomas (DH), R - Keith Foulke, R - Joey Devine
60-day DL: R - Mike Sweeney (1B)
Typical Lineup:
R - Kurt Suzuki (C)
R - Matt Murton (LF)
L - Jack Cust (DH)
R - Emil Brown (RF)
L - Carlos Gonzalez (CF)
R - Mark Ellis (2B)
L - Daric Barton (1B)
L - Jack Hannahan (3B)
R - Donnie Murphy (SS)
Second, here
http://tinyurl.com/54r8fn
is an article about Jack Cust. He's a weird batter. In 364 plate appearances, Cust has walked 67 times and struck out 114 times. Since he's been hit-by-pitch twice, this makes the chance that he puts the ball in play at all, in a given appearance, under 50%. That's pretty peculiar.
Peculiar isn't bad, though. He leads the team in RBI, and the American League in OBP.
Moose had better throw him strikes.
; )
https://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/1057966.html
35Centigrade and humid here at 8:30 in the morning, need a Yankees win to make the day bearable!
and man, he had some ugly ugly at bats
Also, 26 pitches for Smith and that's with two one-pitch outs!
GTOAHP.
(guys thrown out at home plate)
hopefully moose is settling in.
doesn't look like he is going to get those close calls tonight though.
[16} thats unreal....then again, Nicole Kidman got pais 20million to make "Stepford Wives" so in that sense, A-Rod good value..
and somewhere Reggie laughs. However, that one was not that funny...
Yes, let's hope this is the beginning of a torrid second half for Cano.
He's off to a good start this year.
against rhp:
225/259/324
against lhp:
294/345/441
Molina, .261 OBP..sigh...
If he did, would that have been a Hacky Sock?
broadcast here showing lots of Nomo Hideo highlights, he was really impressive for awhile, love that delivery!
but hmm a headfirst slide.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suzuki_Swift
WHO ARE THESE GUYS???
Ya walk Sexon, ya lose, kid...
What did I miss? =)
81 hits! with risp!! often with 2 outs!!!
and mosse pitching pretty good.
and bad puns.
82 he is hilarious. he gets so excited about his exploits.
As much as I would like to see him clobber 22 HRs in the second half, I don't see him being particularly good, though.
I see Bobby M is trying to earn his way out of town again.
really, there is no excuse not to play Duke Ellington at the new Stadium..
look out mike schmidt - you ar going to get passed soon!!
since robertson is in i wouldn't mind edwar getting some work in too (though i am quote pleased with robertson). haven't looked up any numbers, and maybe it is just the disaster of last year leaving a strong impression in my mind but he doesn't seem to do well with long layoffs.
All three of you will get a year's supply of turtle wax.
plus he is a bama yankee
David Robertson: As a small righty, Robertson doesn't pass the scouting sniff test, but he keeps getting hitters out, easing concerns about his height. In over 130 innings as a pro, he's yet to give up a home run, and in 28 appearances between Double- and Triple-A this year, he has a 1.74 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 49 2/3 innings. With a low-90s fastball and outstanding slider, Robertson may not have Melancon's upside, but he might get the call sooner.
Is Melancon due to come up soon?
speaking of the stache i haven't seen him on any of the bench shots - hope he made it back okay (or i just missed seeing him).
I have a feeling that Hawkins' days are numbered.
But you're right, if he keeps getting people out forget what he looks like.
http://tinyurl.com/rz32k
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Ron-Guidry.shtml
Can you imaging Mattpat11' reaction if he were around in 1975 when Guidry was first called up to the bigs, the year after he posted a 1.73 WHIP in AA?
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