Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Pity the poor Pirates. A year ago it appeared that the Bucs were building a strong young rotation with Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell on top and Zach Duke and Paul Maholm in the middle. They then overhauled their management both in the front office and on the field in the hope of building around that quartet of young starters. This season, their offense has surged to become the fourth-best attack in the NL thanks to a career year from Xavier Nady (.321/.379/.537), breakout seasons from 27-year-old catcher Ryan Doumit (.318/.362/.568) and 26-year-old All-Star center fielder Nate McLouth (.286/.361/.540), and Jason Bay's rebound from a 2007 season hampered by leg injuries. More recently, first baseman Adam LaRoche, a second-half performer to rival Robinson Cano, has joined in, hitting .365/.455/.662 since mid-June.
The problem is that their good young rotation has gone belly-up. Gorzellany lost his ability to throw strikes (6.26 BB/9 vs. 5.34 K/9) and has been sent back to the minors for reeducation sporting a 6.57 ERA, and Snell has been only mildly better (5.84 ERA, 5.34 BB/9, 6.55 K/9). That has more than erased the improvements made by Duke and tonight's starter Maholm, and undermined the strong showing of both the offense and the back of the bullpen (which itself has been hurt by the recent injury to closer Matt Capps). Altogether, the Pirates pitching staff has the worst ERA in baseball.
Worse yet, of those breakout performers on offense, all but Bay stand a good chance to regress to their past level of performance as McLouth is the youngest of the quartet at 26. Just look at Freddy Sanchez, who won the batting title at age 28 in 2005 and is hitting .226/.253/.307 thus far this year. Oh, and Bay will be a free agent after the 2009 season.
So despite the new administration's willingness to think outside of the box (witness rookie manager John Russell using Doug Mientkiewicz as a four-corners utility man and becoming the third NL Central manager to bat his pitcher eighth), any hope for a meaningful improvement in Pittsburgh has once again receded into the future.
Tonight's game makes up for one rained out exactly two weeks ago after the Yanks and Bucs split the first two games of a three-game set and, neatly, rematches the two pitchers who started the game that was rained out with the Yankees leading 3-1 in the third inning. Having had that outing erased from his ledger, Paul Maholm has posted a 2.57 ERA in his last four starts and a 2.74 mark over his last seven, and hasn't taken a loss since May 20. Mike Mussina is coming off his six crucial shutout innings against the Red Sox and has a 2.70 ERA in his last six starts with 30 Ks against just six walks and three homers in that span.
Jose Molina, who starts his sixth straight game behind the plate, continues his personal catching duties for Mike Mussina. Righty-hitting Justin Christian starts in left field over lefty Brett Gardner against the lefty Maholm. Christian bats eighth with the entire order shifting up a spot and Derek Jeter leading off. With no DH, Jorge Posada starts at first base with Jason Giambi looming as a late-game pinch-hitting option.
For what it's worth, the Yankees outscored the Pirates 15-12 in the first two games of this broken three-game series, with the Pirates scoring all of their runs in Game One.
2008 Record: 42-48 (.467)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 39-51 (.436)
2007 Record: 68-94 (.420)
2007 Pythagorean Record: 68-94 (.422)
Manager: John Russell
General Manager: Neal Huntington
Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): PNC Park (98/98)
Who's Replacing Whom:
Nate McLouth inherits the playing time of Chris Duffy (minors)
Ryan Doumit takes the starting catcher's job from Ronny Paulino (minors)
Raul Chavez replaces Doumit on the bench
Doug Mientkiewicz replaces Jose Castillo and Josh Phelps
Chris Gomez replaces Cesar Izturis and Matt Kata
Jason Michaels replaces Nyjer Morgan (minors)
John Van Benschoten is replacing Tom Gorzelanny (minors)
Phil Dumatrait replaces Matt Morris and the starts of Tony Armas Jr. and Shane Youman
Tyler Yates replaces Shawn Chacon
Sean Burnett replaces Salomon Torres
T.J. Beam replaces Jonah Bayliss
Romulo Sanchez is replacing Matt Capps (DL)
25-man Roster:
1B - Adam LaRoche (L)
2B - Freddy Sanchez (R)
SS - Jack Wilson (R)
3B - Jose Bautista (R)
C - Ryan Doumit (S)
RF - Xavier Nady (R)
CF - Nate McLouth (L)
LF - Jason Bay (R)
Bench:
L - Doug Mientkiewicz (3B/1B/OF)
R - Jason Michaels (OF)
R - Chris Gomez (IF)
R - Luis Rivas (IF)
R - Raul Chavez (C)
Rotation:
R - Ian Snell
R - John Van Benschoten
L - Paul Maholm
L - Zach Duke
L - Phil Dumatrait
Bullpen:
L - Damaso Marte
R - Tyler Yates
L - John Grabow
R - Denny Bautista
L - Sean Burnett
R - T.J. Beam
R - Romulo Sanchez
15-day DL: R - Matt Capps, R - Franquelis Osoria
Typical Lineup:
L - Nate McLouth (CF)
R - Freddy Sanchez (2B)
S - Ryan Doumit (C)
R - Jason Bay (LF)
R - Xavier Nady (RF)
L - Adam LaRoche (1B)
R - Jose Bautista (3B)
X - (P)
R - Jack Wilson (SS)
Mientkiewicz, Raul Chavez, and T.J. Beam are on the 25-man roster. Earlier this year they released Kevin Thompson and Jaret Wright. They've brought Craig Wilson back in the minors, and last year they had Josh Phelps and (admittedly from the Wilson trade) Shawn Chacon.
Curiously, watching the 1977 All-Star Game on YES the other night, I noted that two of the three Pirate All-Stars were future Yankee pitchers (Goose Gossage and John Candelaria).
All of this is meaningless, but that doesn't make it any less fun to notice.
Hopefully, the Yankees will realize that Maholm's curve is never a strike and stop flailing at it.
I wonder if Cashman has called Sexon's agent yet?
They love him in Pittsburgh. He's playing first, third, and corner outfielder. Hitting pretty well. And providing leadership in the clubhouse:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08191/895776-63.stm
something that melky, jose and wilson can't.
When you watch this team flail at the plate and play defense like a little league team, it gets very hard to believe that this team is a contender. Also, poor managing isn't helping either.
And that McLouth kid has some wheels.
This game could get away fast and you can't blame Moose. It has to be frustrating to play behind such crappy defense, which always seems to be in full force when Mussina is on the mound.
http://www.bb-ref.com/boxes/ARI/ARI199907100.shtml
Randy Johnson was the Arizona starter.
Then I read them, and now I understand.
Meantime, cross Craig Wilson off that former Yankees on the Pirates list!
http://tinyurl.com/58prc5
I wonder who will win the battle for the first base job between him and Cairo?
SHITFUCK!
Joe, Veras doesn't have it tonight. Robertson or Edwar please.
Game isn't over yet!
Cashman's complete inaction really makes you think he doesn't view this team as a contender.
What other righty power/on base bats are available?
It's like when you play chess and make a bad move. The gaff is so discouraging, that you start getting careless and before long it's checkmate. Well, this Yankee team seems to be unable to remain focused when it gets behind. Instead, it just starts wildly moving pieces until time runs out.
if Jorgie is a DH with a 110 OPS+ next year, as looks awfully likely, things are not gonna be pretty...
There is enough talent on this roster even with all the injuries. I am starting to think that poor management is more of the problem.
The Yankees either need to fire a coach, pick up a legitimate right handed bat or try to trade someone to the Phillies or Dodgers for prospects. What they are doing now is useless.
Down.
Game.
Maybe Cliff and Alex can start some sort of Traber/Moeller watch in the sidebar.
If Girardi doesn't see the problem, it wont get fixed and that's why the offense still sucks 90+ games in.
Hitters peak at 27 or 28, and are in their primes between the and 32.
The Yanks have one regular hitter in that range, and only 13.31% of their PA (not including tonight) have gone to such hitters (mostly A-Rod).
Guys before their primes have only 25.76% of the Yanks' PA (mostly Cano and Melky).
Meanwhile, 60.93% percent of the Yanks' PA go to guys 33 or older (out of their primes). 53.8% are to guys 34 or older.
So where does the improvement come from? A-Rod is likely to hold steady. But the Yanks' next 5 best hitters - Giambi, Matsui, Damon, Posada, and Abreu - are all in the 34 and older group. So they are likely to decline.
Jeter is likely to get a little better, just because he's been so bad compared to his norms. But he's 34 and seems to be slowing down.
That leaves Melky and Cano . . . but even if they both rake for the next 3 months (say .900+ OPS for Cano, .800+ for Melky), that's probably just enough to offset the decline of the 34-and-up crowd.
I don't see a significant improvement in the offense without Melky AND Cano AND Jeter all turning it on, AND two out of Matsui, Damon, and Giambi raking all year. (Or the Yanks getting .900 or better OPS out of 300 PA by Bonds.)
I just don't see improvement as likely, and I think Girardi and Cashman know it. They can't ever say it out loud, of course, but its not likely to get better AND there's no easy fix (not even Bonds is enough). Given that, I can't blame them for not losing it, particularly with a veteran clubhouse.
FWIW I still think this team will be there in September. Tampa has overachieved (BP predicted, what, 82 wins?) and Boston has issues. The Yanks are far from a perfect team (as you guys point out incessantly!) but they're good enough to be in it at the end and what more can you really ask for?
I generally agree with your comment, but I don't fully grasp the above statement. Jeter has hit .800 OPS since the beginning of June, and Giambi and Damon have raked all year. Even Cano has hit pretty well the last month.
You are correct that Melky has been a problem. But Molina has also been a black hole in the lineup; the bench is a disaster, and the injury to Damon has meant lots of ABS for Christian/Gardner, who have not been productive at all.
So far, I have Pittsburgh, Kansas City (twice)Cincinnati and Baltimore (twice)
Am I forgetting anything?
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