Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Most likely this is simply another period of transition as the 24-year-old Garza works to establish himself alongside lefty Scott Kazmir (also 24) and righty James Shields (26) to give the Rays the best trio of starters their brief existence, prospects from Longoria and Brignac to 2007 top pick and potential ace David Price continue to fight their way toward the majors, and established starters such as Upton and catcher Dioner Navarro attempt to mature on the job. The rate at which each of those things happen will determine the rate of the Rays' improvement. Heck, by the All-Star break, this team could have Longoria and any of a handful of pitching prospects in place, Garza, Upton and company could be thriving, and the Rays could be well on their way to that 88-win projection, but given their bad luck and self-defeating maneuvers such as the demotion of Longoria, I just don't see it happening.While the Rays' have made incremental improvements in their pitching and defense, their offense should break even as Carlos Peña regresses from his monster breakout season of a year ago. The result is likely something resembling a well-balanced 75-win team, which is a nice step up from a duck-and-cover 67-win team, but it's not about to change the complexion of the division. At least not this season. -Cliff Corcoran, April 4, 2008
Uhm . . . oops.
To be fair a lot of those "things" that I said needed to happen for the Rays to become a winning team have happened. Longoria was called up and installed at third base just a week after I wrote the above and has since emerged as the second-best third baseman in the American League behind Alex Rodriguez by hitting .283/.354/.535 while playing fantastic defense. Longoria, who has hit .331/.397/.653 since June 1, is probably the most deserving of the Final Vote candidates for the final spot on the AL All-Star roster. Dioner Navarro, who is hitting .317/.371/.436, is already on the All-Star roster and has been the second best catcher in the league in the first half. B.J. Upton has lost a lot of the power he showed last year, but has made up for it with an tremendous improvement in his approach at the plate as evidenced by the drop in his K/BB ratio from 2.37 in 2007 to 1.21 and his .391 on-base percentage against a .277 average. Garza overcame some early-season elbow trouble and has posted a 3.02 ERA in his last 14 starts. Reid Brignac and pitching prospect Mitch Talbot have had tastes of the major leagues already this year.
Everything has gone according to the Rays' plan in the first half. They have the best defensive efficiency in baseball. That has lifted their pitching from last in the league to third, with both Garza and lefty ace Scott Kazmir, who starts against Andy Pettitte tonight, benefiting greatly on balls in play with BABIPs in the low .260s. Former Dodgers prospect Edwin Jackson, still just 24 year old, has gotten a lift as well with a .281 BABIP and a league-average major league ERA which is more than a run better than his career mark. Rounded out by Andy Sonnanstine, who has a 3.15 ERA in his last seven starts, the Rays have a solid five-man rotation of which the 26-year-old James Shields is the oldest member. More good pitching out of the bullpen and a surprisingly strong offense led by the rookie Longoria, a career year from four-corner utility man Eric Hinske (.264/.349/.524), and the robust on-base percentages of Upton and Navarro, have put the Rays in a position from which they could post a .446 winning percentage the rest of the way and still fulfill PECOTA's bold 88-win projection.
Odds are they'll do better than that. Despite all of the above going their way, the Rays have still suffered from repeated injuries to closer Troy Percival and DH Cliff Floyd. Garza and Kazmir have both lost time to injury as well, and Rocco Baldelli hasn't played above A-ball all year. What's more, shortstop Jason Bartlett, who came over in the deal for Garza, was supposed to be the anchor of their improved defense, but has been a disappointment in the field and an embarrassment at the plate (.204/.268/.358, only slightly better than Jose Molina). Bartlett is on the DL with a knee sprain right now, opening the door to an improvement at his position as prospect Reid Brignac battles Ben Zobrist for playing time at shortstop. In addition to the upgrade at Bartlett's spot, the Rays should be able to expect more pop from Upton and more than the league-average production they've received from Carl Crawford in the first half.
Good health and those slight improvements on offense could offset some of the expected regressions elsewhere. With 74 games left to play, if the Rays merely played that the level the Yankees have in the first half (.528 winning percentage entering tonight's game) they would win 94 games, a total that could put them in the postseason, as it did for the Yankees a year ago.
Given all of that, the Yankees have done well to split their first ten games against the Rays this season. However, four of those five wins came in April. In their last meeting in mid-May, the Rays took three of four from the Bombers at the Trop. Coming into this week's brief two-game set in the Bronx, the Rays are red-hot having won 11 of their last 13 including a three-game sweep of the Red Sox.
The good news is that Kazmir has cooled off after a stretch of six starts in May, including one against the Yankees, in which he allowed four runs in 41 innings. Since then, Kazmir has posted a 4.67 ERA and turned in just one quality start in five tries, that coming back on June 11. Kazmir still isn't giving up very many hits, but the ones he is giving up are traveling, as he's allowed a .471 slugging percentage over those five starts with nearly half of his hits allowed going for extra bases. He's also getting wild again, walking 5 men per nine innings over those last five starts. Over the same stretch, Andy Pettitte was dominant for four starts (4-0, 1.00 ERA) before his ugly outing against the Red Sox on Thursday.
Despite yesterday's off-day, Jose Molina will make his third-straight start behind the plate tonight with Jason Giambi getting a day off against the lefty Kazmir. Jorge Posada will DH with Wilson Betemit at first base. Those two are hitting fifth and sixth in the order ahead of Robinson Cano despite the fact that Cano is hitting .396/.400/.625 over his last dozen games (note the complete lack of walks, those extra OBP points are from a HBP).
Tampa Bay Rays
2008 Record: 55-33 (.625)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 52-36 (.596)
Manager: Joe Maddon
General Manager: Andrew Friedman
Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Tropicana Field (98/100)
Who's Replaced Whom:
Ben Zobrist (DL) has replaced Jason Bartlett (DL)
Willy Aybar (DL) has replaced Andy Cannizaro (minors)
Reid Brignac (minors) has replaced Scott Dohmann
Grant Balfour (minors) has replaced Troy Percival (DL)
25-man Roster:
1B - Carlos Peña (L)
2B - Akinori Iwamura (L)
SS - Ben Zobrist (S)
3B - Evan Longoria (R)
C - Dioner Navarro (S)
RF - Eric Hinske (L)
CF - B.J. Upton (R)
LF - Carl Crawford (L)
DH - Cliff Floyd (L)
Bench:
R - Jonny Gomes (OF)
L - Gabe Gross (OF)
L - Reid Brignac (IF)
S - Willy Aybar (IF)
R - Shawn Riggans (C)
Rotation:
L - Scott Kazmir
R - Edwin Jackson
R - Andy Sonnanstine
R - James Shields
R - Matt Garza
Bullpen:
R - Grant Balfour
R - Dan Wheeler
R - Gary Glover
L - Trever Miller
L - J. P. Howell
R - Jason Hammel
15-day DL: R - Jason Bartlett (SS), R - Troy Percival, R - Al Reyes, R - Chad Orvella
60-day DL: R - Rocco Baldelli (OF)
Typical Lineup:
L - Akinori Iwamura (2B)
L - Carl Crawford (LF)
R - B.J. Upton (CF)
L - Carlos Peña (1B)
R - Evan Longoria (3B)
L - Cliff Floyd (DH)
S - Dioner Navarro (C)
L - Erik Hinske (RF)
S - Ben Zobrist (IF)
vr, Xei
break up da Cubs!
Now, let's stomp these Rays Of Light.
well the only two of my pre-season thoughts that have panned out by the asb is the rays being for real and moose having a nice season - both have been interesting, with only the latter being good for the yanks.
i know the spot one hits in the order is overblown, but if there is the slighest chance robi is more comfortable in the 7th spot, i am okay with leaving him there.
though i am not looking forward to betemit flailing at pitches from the right side, so let's hope to avoid that one.
but i do hope to see the yanks few speedy guys, obviously particularly gardner, try to get on base against kazmir and put some pressure on him - as well as that 471 slg% version showing up tonight.
The Cubs will receive the right-handed Harden and righty Chad Gaudin for pitcher Sean Gallagher, outfielders Matt Murton and Eric Patterson, and minor leaguer John Donaldson.
Harden, scheduled to be a free agent after the 2009 season, is 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA in 13 starts this season.
The oft-injured righty missed a month earlier this season because of a right shoulder strain. It was his sixth trip to the disabled list in his six-year career.
Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press
4 That's a big move. Talk about seeing your Sabathia. Isn't this the game the Yankees and Red Sox are supposed to be playing?
Betemit is just utterly terrible against lefties--we need a RH bench bat, but instead, we carry Moeller--hard to figure....Think the Mariners would basically give us Sexton if we ate some $? He still hits lefties...
If they get even 10 more starts out of Harden this season, that's a hell of a deal
I mean, I would've offered IPK, Melky and any one minor-leaguer for Hardin alone....
As good as Harden is when healthy, he has been on the DL six times. That fact surely lowered his trade value. I was kind of hoping the Yankees could steal him in a similar deal. He isn't a great bet to stay healthy, but he represents that kind of crap shoot that I think the Yankees need to turn it around.
of course, there was the tim hudson deal, that one looked pretty stinky at the time and even stinkier with hindsight (seriously, charles freakin' thomas???)
in any case, the nl central race just got a whole lot more interesting this week ...
And Betemin is better against LHP then Giambi?
And Melky leading off against a LHP? What a waste.
And there he goes.
Ugly-Ugly-Ugly.
Ugly.
On the offensive side of the ball, Melky has value on defense, but I am sure the A's value Murton's patience at the plate. Even though Melky is only 23, his track record could now be scaring off suitors.
22 Not sure why you are so down on Gallagher. He has a mid-90s fastball with a very good curve. The knocks on him are command, which is something a 22-year old can learn. In many ways, his arsenal is similar to Phil Hughes, but without the polish.
vr, Xei
Fugly-Fugly-Fugly.
Ugly(2)
This is yet another example of Cashman doing a poor job with the construction of this roster. Once it became obvious that Ensberg and Duncan weren't helping, Cashman hasn't been able to supply one capable righty bat.
It shouldn't be that difficult to acquire a Kevin Millar caliber player. (I'm not saying that Millar is necessarily the answer, but I'm just using his name to indicate the caliber of player.)Did the Yankees even talk to the Cubs about Murton, or the Cardinals about Phelps, or the Tigers about Thames? There are some decent role-playing righty bats out there that shouldn't cost an arm and a leg in return.
vr, Xei
"Perrotto wrote that (Jack) Wilson is the Dodgers' primary trade target. He says "a Dodgers source indicated that Los Angeles might be willing to deal center fielder Matt Kemp."
How about the Yankees throw something together and get Kemp? How about trade Betemit back for him.
I don't think the Dodgers have any intention of dealing Kemp; the LA media has a weird hate-on for him, but there's no actual evidence that they wanna deal him...
So why has every online source of info for this game come to a dead stop?
OK, from what I could tell, the Yankees third out was the result of an Executive Order.
IT IS SHORT!
IT IS DEAD!!!
it is foul.
pine time calleth, hacky.
Oops... I recognize that guy.
(and yes, I know Cap got a big hit earlier, it just drives me crazy how many times this type of inning has played out this season)
and frankly, melky's not shown me much since may to keep him as the starter, other than inertia.
I wonder if Cashman would be interested...
meanwhile, NICE PITCH ANDY!!!
Great play by DJ...this is the kind of the game the Yankees will need from him until Matsui and Damon get back.
Great start by Andy.
Mariano was owned Upton so far in the young guy's career. I can recall at least three occasions where Upton whiffed, totally over-matched against Mo. But Upton is swinging a really hot bat. And if the Yanks don't score some extrie runs, looks like he'll face Mo. I just hope nobody is on base when he gets up. It'll be a good test to see where he's at.
so his glove takes back half of the value his bat gives away.
Your main point is valid, however. The Yankees have not had many good ABs, but then again, they don't really have many good hitters in the lineup.
151 Right, but its not like we have nothing to judge Gardner on. Only 30 ABs at the MLB level, so I won't look at those numbers . . . but his #s in the high minors translate very nicely. BP's Davenport Translations take his minor league numbers and give us .279/.401/.429. That's not what he should hit in the bigs right now*, but if he could manage a .350 OBP, and I believe he could**, he's immensely more valuable than Melky and his Neifi-tastic sub. 300 OBP over the last 2 months, defense be damned.
*Davenport explains: "Everybody, from every park, is translated to the same underlying
standard. Hitters go to a league that hits .270/.330/.420 with a .260 EqA"
**FWIW, the average AL line this year is .264/.332/.410, awfully close to the translated standard, so I think expecting Gardner to manage a .350 OBP is very reasonable.
I know you go to Mo for the 9th, but it would be nice if someone other than Roy Halladay could pitch a CG once in awhile.
http://www.stanthecaddy.com/hair-hat-discuss.html
.125/.176/.125, 1 BB, 7 K, 2 singles, 16 AB
Besides, the Porn Stache of Doom is 38; what better time to give the 'Stache a night off? Seems pretty hot and humid in the Bronx tonight . . .
http://www.sln.org.uk/re/images/whirlingDervish/dervish19bw.jpg
hahahah. i could take this post back but i won't. well done melky, no golden sombrero for you!
Let me be clear - I think Melky is the better player in the end, and much more likely to have a better career than Gardner, because he got to the majors and preformed reasonably well at age 21. I do think Melky will bounce back.
BUT - he's been lost at the plate for over 2 months now. And while his career OBP is .334, the track record is:
21 - .360
22 - .327
23 - .312
Here's OPS+:
21 - 95
22 - 87
23 - 78
Those numbers are going the wrong way. Melky ought to be getting better. That he isn't suggests something is wrong. Hence, why not try Gardner?
Looking at bb-ref, our lefties hit lefties fine; it's our righties who, relative to league, can't hit lefties for shit: 76sOPS+
186 I'm firmly in the camp that there's no overwhelming reason to bench Melky for someone not much better than him, and a year older. Gardner is a nice 4th OFer type with pinch runner game-changing speed. I like him as a bench guy.
A-Rod kept Jetes up til 3 am last night playing Wii ...
Farns for the ninth...
188 Would Angelos sanction a trade to Steinbrenner's team though?
Again, it's all moot (mute?) now, Brett has Damon's slot. And if he can't pair his nice at bats to nice swings on hittable pitches, he'll be gone when JD comes back. I like his at bats, but agree his swings are pretty weak. Just like his book said.
Jeez... Minn leading the Sox 5-2 after 7.5 IP, and then give up 4 runs in the bottom of the 8th. Sox up 6-5.
why not try something else?
you can always go back to melky until you can find something better.
Except that, with no Damon and no Matsui, its not happening now, and if Melky keeps hitting, its a moot point.
221 Frankly, I think they're both 4th OFers, but there's one's got a higher ceiling.
ROBBIE THE RIPPER!
F'in Gardenhire. He sucks. I was at last night's game. Baker baffles the Red Sox for 7 innings, 98 pitches. So with the heart of the order up in a 0-0 game, and Papelbon warming, what does Gardy do? Uses Brian Bass - he of the 55 IP, 9! HR, 18 BB and 22 K. His chief setup guy, Crain, doesn't start to warm up until after the damage is done. Of course Nathan rots on the bench for the save opp that never comes.
Then tonight - 3 run lead, top of the order up, Crain and Nathan sit again, he goes to Guerrier (47 IP, 4 HR but 21 BB vs 33 K). What a frickin' moron.
But yeah, they both suck on the bases.
Lead off double!
YANKEES 12TH: Velarde struck out; Boggs walked; POSADA RAN FOR BOGGS; BELCHER REPLACED NELSON (PITCHING); B. Williams walked [Posada to second]; O'Neill flied to left; Sierra doubled to left [Posada scored, B. Williams out at home (left to shortstop to catcher)]; 1 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB. Mariners 5, Yankees 5.
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1995/B10040NYA1995.htm
I took the Fenway tour yesterday, which was very neat - but it might as well have been a Yankees history lesson! Half the spiel was about our Bombers.
I'm guessing if one takes the Stadium tour, there is not so much mentioning of the Red Sox.
Mike Lowell uses Sabbath's "Iron Man", which is awesome. I always liked that guy.
7 straight 900+ OPS for a CF is freaking awesome.
Man, the Yanks should have signed Beltran...
1. Pitching to Manny.
2. Pinch-hitting for Kubel with the bases loaded.
3. Not trying a steal or hit-and-run with Castilla on first via bunt.
The relief pitching choices have already been addressed.
(Long time lurker, first time poster! Hi everyone!)
Yeah, I was surprised when he lifted Kubel for Monroe too. I know Kubel doesn't hit lefties, but Monroe doesn't either, and in that situation, you'd think he'd go with the superior hitter. At least it was a quick game.
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