Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
If there's an odd feeling to this weekend's four-game set between the Yankees and Red Sox in the Bronx, it's because the last time these two teams met this late in the season without either one of them holding first place in the AL East was September 1997, when the Orioles won the division, the Yankees won the Wild Card, and the Red Sox finished 20 games out in fourth place. Entering tonight's game, the second place Red Sox are 3.5 games behind the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays, with the Yankees another four games behind the Sox in third place.
The Yankees could pull into a second-pace tie with the Sox by sweeping this weekend's series, but we all know that's not going to happen. Instead the Yankees will hope to take three of the four games, which would pull them within two games of the Sox in the standings. The Sox have lost their last five games to the Astros and Rays, but four of those were one-run losses and the last was decided by a 3-1 score. Still, there's a vulnerability there, much of which has to do with the Red Sox road performance this year.
In a season that has thus far seen abnormally poor performances by road teams in general, the Red Sox have been a primary offender, dominating opponents at Fenway with a .756 winning percentage, but struggling mightily outside of Boston, with a .413 winning percentage elsewhere. Their current 1-5 road trip and 0-6 record when visiting the Rays have a lot to do with that, but so does a pitching staff that has allowed 1.87 runs per game more on the road than at home.
Just looking at the four starters the Yankees are scheduled to face this weekend, Jon Lester, who goes tonight, has an ERA more than a two runs higher on the road than at home. Rookie Justin Masterson, who will face Mike Mussina on FOX on Saturday, adds nearly a run and a third to his ERA on the road, and Tim Wakefield, who will start against Joba Chamberlain in Sunday night's capper, has an ERA more than 70 points higher on the road. In the bullpen, three of Jon Papelbon's four blown saves this season and 10 of the 13 runs he's allowed have come on the road, and Craig Hansen's road ERA is nearly two and a half times his mark at Fenway.
Those losses are tempered somewhat by the fact that Josh Beckett, who starts tomorrow night, and releivers David Aardsma, Hideki Okajima, and Javier Lopez (ignore the ERA, look at his peripherals) have actually been better on the road than at home, but with the offense similarly shedding more than a run off it's home average when wearing road grays, winning on the road has proven a struggle for the Red Sox this year.
The Sox have been to the Bronx once already this season, splitting a two-game set in mid-April. The Sox scored 16 runs in those two games, half of which came against Chien-Ming Wang in the game the Yankees won. The Boston win was largely due to a strong outing by road warrior Josh Beckett and Mike Mussina's inability to retire Manny Ramirez (two at-bats, two homers, three runs).
The recipe for a series win would thus appear to be winning the three games not started by Beckett and having Mike Mussina pitch around Ramirez on Saturday. The trouble with the latter idea is that the man behind Ramirez, Mike Lowell, has a .579/.600/1.158 line in 20 career plate appearances against Mussina, which dwarfs Ramirez's .280/.333/.630 career line in 108 PA against Mussina. Still, the key seems to be to beat Lester tonight with Andy Pettitte on the hill, win the Chamberlain/Wakefield matchup on Sunday, and hope to pull out one of the remaining two.
That doesn't sound so tough. Pettitte has bee fantastic in his last four starts, posting this line: 4-0, 27 IP, 19 H, 2 HR, 7 BB, 23 K, 1.00 ERA, 0.96 WHIP. Lester gave up six runs in five innings against the Astros in his last start and hasn't faced the Yankees since his rookie season of 2006, when he was lit up for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings. Then again, Lester will be fresh as he threw just 76 pitches in Houston and had a 1.63 ERA in his four starts prior to that (three of them came in Fenway, but the best came against the slugging Phillies on the road).
Melky Cabrera returns to center field tonight. Brett Gardner is on the bench and could be a very valuable late-inning weapon in a close game. Wilson Betemit stays at first base against the lefty Lester with Jason Giambi at DH.
Boston Red Sox
2008 Record: 50-37 (.575)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 51-36 (.586)
Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein
Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Fenway Park (106/105)
Who's Replacing Whom:
25-man Roster:
1B - Kevin Youkilis (R)
2B - Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS - Julio Lugo (R)
3B - Mike Lowell (R)
C - Jason Varitek (S)
RF - J.D. Drew (L)
CF - Coco Crisp (S)
LF - Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
DH - Manny Ramirez (R)
Bench:
L - Brandon Moss (OF)
L - Sean Casey (1B)
L - Alex Cora (IF)
R - Kevin Cash (C)
Rotation:
R - Josh Beckett
R - Justin Masterson
R - Tim Wakefield
R - Daisuke Matsuzaka
L - Jon Lester
Bullpen:
R - Jon Papelbon
L - Hideki Okajima
R - Manny Delcarmen
L - Javier Lopez
R - Mike Timlin
R - David Aardsma
R - Craig Hansen
15-day DL: L - David Ortiz (DH), R - Bartolo Colon
60-day DL: R - Curt Schilling
Lineup:
L - Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
R - Dustin Pedroia (2B)
L - J.D. Drew (RF)
R - Manny Ramirez (LF)
R - Mike Lowell
R - Kevin Youkilis (3B)
S - Jason Varitek (C)
S - Coco Crisp (CF)
R - Julio Lugo (SS)
And Andy Phillips is back with the Reds. The Mets DFA'd him, and the Reds took him back. Daryl Thompson, the kid who flummoxed the Yanks in his first big league start, was sent down make room for Andy.
I am stuck watching the Blue Jays a lot. They have two pretty good starting catchers. I wonder what it would take to pry one of them away, especially Greg Zaun, who is 37 and making $3.7 million.
Oakland – low-revenue Oakland, immortalized in the book "Moneyball," about winning with a scrimp-and-save payroll – signed a 16-year-old named Michel Inoa on Wednesday. Along with his $4.25 million bonus, Inoa got an Anglicized name, Michael, and a ticket to the Dominican Summer League, where he can add weight to his lithe 6-foot-7 frame, throw his 94-mph fastball, unleash his polished breaking ball and work on his changeup.
Anyone think the Yankees were going after this guy? I mean does $2-3m extra in a signing bonus THAT much money to the Yankees???
Cashman seems to have focused on position players. There's some discussion at River Ave Blues.
I don't want to say them embracing; I want to see them getting into off-field brawls for looking at each other funny.
It's a good thing Billy Martin's not around to see this.
Man on first.
Oops.
Not enough time to steal.
Let's go Andy!
This is kinda fun.
And Drew's kind of scary, too.
Motherfucker.
The error only (technically) advanced Ramirez to second, no?
In any case, Manny scoring is certainly an unearned run.
; )
Wow... looked like strike 3 to me. Lucky.
54 Slow down, chief, I wouldn't pin tonight's inevitable loss on the defense just yet.
Damn, you aren't supposed to get away with walking the first two guys.
Unacceptable.
Come on, Alex, we need you.
Get it together, please.
And wear your headphones!
Oh, sure, NOW they throw to second! Sheesh.
Seems so easy...
At least we're doing something right.
You simply can't strike out in that spot, much less by going so far out of the zone.
Uh, I mean, our batters are lazy and planless. I always get those two things confused.
It sort of looks like he started shaving for the first time in three weeks and then was suddenly, viciously attacked by several ferrets and had to run for it. That's about as close as I can come.
They're hitting the ball well.
He's making decent pitches.
Who said anything about good?
I said "all right."
As in "decent."
As in, this game's not on him.
Andy is a professional. But if this game has already made most of us sick to our stomaches, I wonder how it effects Andy?
No one play (usually) loses a game, but it can be a catalyst. Certain events have a greater emotional impact then othera. Having Jete's blow an EASY plan in the FIRST inning against Boston is VERY depressing.
2-0 we are still easily in the game. 4-0 is a much tougher sell.
I guess Jeter can no longer bring himself to run down the line anymore? I guess the intangibles are out the door too?
Not all of them or anything, because management of emotions is part of the job, but there must be some role for emotional buffeting.
The Yankees are now hacking away and that is not the right way to play it when you are down 5-0.
Gehrig remains one of the classiest men to ever wear the Yankee uniform, IMHO. He's my favorite Yankee because of his quiet and low-key personality.
I am always afraid that Jeter might start feeling entitled to be the Yankee SS. I truly hope that's not the case.
Note: both team's centerfielders got on base with a single. Only one team scored: on a stolen base and two outs. That is making something out of nothing.
Our team however, got a fly ball and a GIDP. Sure, winning makes things look better. But so does good baseball.
Another 'earned' run because of poor defense.
I am close to the mindset that there are no big games for the Yankees because I haven't seen them play well enough to suggest they will ever make a serious run.
Since the 2nd inning, only one Yankee has seen more than three pitches. I know they are trailing and trying to hack. But why change the approach considering how well they did against him in the 1st?
Ever since the Sux won, it doesn't matter as much to me. It's kind of made me focus just on the Yanks and that's it, everything else was a lot of noise. Bottom line, I just care about the Yanks.
Now the comeback can begin!
at least giese is pitching well again tonite ...
"we will HAVE to spend BIG FA dollars to get 2 impact bats."
" I think at this point we MUST target Tex."
Steady man, this kind of thinking has led to some very, very bad deals in the past.
Too bad Alan Horne has been shut down. He was supposedly the guy they were dangling as trade bait. Or calling up, if they couldn't trade him.
God, no Bedard, please.
If only they can stick Heather Mills in a situation like that, she finds it so tough to live on 48 million dollars. I think she should have been awarded a nice 6 year vacation stay with The FARC!!!
Why has my sympathy run out for Jon Lester? Drugs sure make your mind go all over the place.
Man, Michael Kay is f-ing annoying. Can the FARC kidnap Michael Kay?
As for catcher, oops I meant league average or below. In other words, hope to start an average C behind the plate, move Posada to DH, move Molina to the bench, and move Moeeler to the away place.
funny, Kay isn't using the term "Generation Tres" anymore...
Our farm system catching prospects aren't doing well. I mean, they're very young so no big deal.
We have a lot of arms in the franchise. But where are the bats. AJax is the only one really ready for 2010.
So, where is our offense coming from?
I'm not opposed to paying for bats! But Teixeira isn't the answer.
But I see 220 and 219 said the same thing more succinctly.
The Yankees made it clear that Kennedy was demoted for ineffectiveness, so I don't think they're going to depend on him as pitching help.
Rumor is that Cashman is going after an established left-handed pitcher. Someone like Bedard. (I think he seriously regrets not getting Santana.)
If he can't swing that, there might be a trash-heap signing. (Chacon?) Cashman probably has more confidence in his ability to find diamonds in the rough than we do. (I'm starting to think his lucking out with Chacon and Small was not a good thing in the long run.)
Look at the Red Sox from 2004 to 2007, only V-Tek, Ortiz and Manny remain.
Don't you think this is an exercise in futility and just meant to keep you angry?
Tomorrow is a new day and the Yanks will beat Beckett and then people here will be talking about winning the next 2, and taking 3 of 4.
Seriously, these are dangerous times, when teams like the Yankees are tempted to make very bad trades or take on goofy contracts. Best to play cautiously now.
If anything, we should start to think about whom they should trade to contenders for prospects in return.
We know who many of the the FAs are in 2009 and 2010. We are losing MOST of our offense. You don't think Cashman is thinking about 2009 and 2010? And he might be thinking about that A LOT MORE in a few weeks if we continue to suck.
I'm with ya', but this game is rough.
"So many teams are focusing on and signing their talented kids, that impact FAs are terribly overpriced and command longer contracts."
Uh.
The demand for FAs is down so much that the price of them is skyrocketing???
But the Yankees aren't going to do that.
why are people so high on Texiera??
Pena, Crawford, Iwamura, Longoria, those guys are likely to be with the Rays in 2010. Baldelli could be an impact bat, if he ever gets healthy. They might trade Pena in a salary dump if the team isn't good, but I bet it will be.
who's the best free agent available, period, without thinking of our needs?
I can't quite say good-bye to Rocco. He's from Rhode Island, you know.
And here's to you, Mr. Roberstson.
If Cashman is adamant about salvaging the season by picking up some lefty starter, that's what he will do and end of discussion.
If you ask what I would do, that would involve riding the Sidny Pontoon until it sinks, and in the meanwhile rotate IPK back into the rotation There is also Karstens.
I also think that there is a greater chance to salvage the season by making one or two doable moves on the offense, rather than trading for pitching. I think that the team stands a better chance to improve by picking up a decent RH bat (probably one that can play the Shelley Duncan sort of OF position), or getting a decent to somewhat below average catcher. That said, the chances of salvage are slim, no doubt.
can I root for a nice, relatively unpainful, season-ending injury to the kid's arm?
Adam Dunn
Milton Bradley
Manny Ramirez or Vlad G., club options
What do you think about this Bobby Abreu guy?
5 years ago, when a high priced player became available, if was the Yankees and a few other teams. Now everyone is buying. Even KC and Seattle spent some serious money on FAs.
Paying big money for long contracts is very risky. Zito. Sori. JD Drew. Many others. It's no way to build a team, but necessary to augment it to become a contender (unless you get the #1 pick 10 years in a row).
The Yankees have NOT bitten then poison apple of expensive FAs in a while. But for the next 2 years, what choice do we have?
I'm not sold on Tex, but at least he is a good fielder and relatively young, as well as an excellent bat. I'm not sure who else is out there, but Cashman is gonna be like a teenage girl with a new credit card.
92 and 35 games the last two years is pretty bad.
A lot of crazy shit happens in baseball, or any sport for that matter, Crawford might not even be relevant by 2010. He can suffer a knee injury, hurt his shoulder, hand, etc.
This, for a Yankee fan, is hell.
Adam Dunn - All bat, no glove, no speed
Milton Bradley - Talented. Would the Yankees bite on a head case?
Manny Ramirez - Getting old but still good, but he would be a disgrace to Pinstipes. Pass.
Vlad G - I think his health is catching up to him. Pass.
What do you think about this Bobby Abreu guy?
Still above average with the bat, below with the glove. I don't think he's available for a single year, and I wouldn't want any longer then that.
Not tonight.
Milton Bradley will be overpriced after slugging the last two years, but look at his last 5 or 6 years--at age 30 he could replace Abreu.
I blame society. Or, to be more specific, the last 5 years of the 20th century....
Jeez....so morbid!
WOO-HOO!! Happy Independence Day!!!! Thank you Columbus!!!
Sounds like Girardi is going nuts in the clubhouse. It probably shouldn't have taken this long.
I care and get bothered as much as the next man, but once the game is over I learn to accept the outcome and look forward to tomorrow's game. I love having a nice steak while the game is being played, the game offers a nice tranquil evening after a long day at work, riding the subway and dealing with a ton of malcontents.
285 Well maybe you shouldn't be so morbid. I'm not telling you how to root for anything.
According to PeteAbe tonight:
"UPDATE, 4:23 p.m.: Joe Girardi said that Hideki Matsui has not responded well to physical therapy on his knee and will not be able to take BP this weekend. It appears he will be out until after the break at the earliest. It's apparent that he will need surgery, if not now then after the season. "It's a possibility," said Girardi, which is his way of saying "Absolutely."...
Ian Kennedy is en route to Scranton."
Knowing the Yankees luck with injuries, and the way that they downplay them publicly, I have a feeling that Matsui is out a good long time.
IPK is not being moved up to Scranton for no reason, I suspect. Again, it will not surprise me to see him back in the bigs within a month.
But they WERE bad teams. As Murcer, Munson and White came into their own, they actually made it to .500. A few more players and they actually contended for 1st place. But they played up to their talent, which was still limited.
This team, while a bit old, is still loaded with talent. 18 runs yesterday, and 5 hits today. Braindead with RISP. I watch the games and still can't believe it.
So my frustration is NOT not contending for the PS, but simply having them butcher the game. There is something wrong with the emotional state of this team. Something wrong with Jeter, as his problems go beyond poor batting and fielding.
Something is just wrong with this picture.
299 Maybe you don't care about the outcome of these games as much as I do? That's fine. Juicy steaks don't erase the bad feelings about a loss. I wish meat could make the Yankees be irrelevant. I don't begrudge your more laid back approach, so I suggest you don't worry about my more intense interest in the team. Deal?
Remy noticed it, too. When the opposing team's announcer wonders what the hell is going on, something is not right - and you'd think the hitters themselves might get a clue.
/frustration
275 I think I've already adjusted my expectations. I expect a 3rd place finish and making for a better team next year by working in the kids in the bullpen, continuing Joba's development as a starter, and re-incorporating Hughes and IPK. I'm happy if that's all they do, or if they do better. Missing the playoffs for the first time since 1994 might do them all some good.
I'm also pulling for Jeter to recover by the end of the season. My prediction is that he will end up somewhere in the .300/.360/.410 range, low by his standards but still not too bad. His average will creep up and you can count on 190 hits, but his walks and power will remain low. It's fun watching A-Rod smash the ball, but I really want to see Jeter reach some career milestones before it's all done.
I expect there to be more bullpen happiness in the future, between Britton, Bruney, JB Cox, Melancon, Ohlendorf, etc. I hope Cashman stays around because I really do expect to see a "Mo and the 'kids'" bullpen next year. There is no reason whatsoever for the Yanks to spend money on another team's free agent reliever this offseason. Or the next. Or the next.
And that's exactly the way it should be.
I do however believe that Cashman is living in the same state of denial than many fans are, believing we have starters in the minors who can compete at a high level anytime soon. Joba hasn't proven he can quite yet, Hughes is a huge question mark, and that's it. No one else is even one year away by today's standards, although I would call up anyone 21 or older, and see what they have. The Yankees however, will not.
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