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Minnesota Twins
2007 Record: 79-83 (.488)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 80-82 (.495)
2008 Record: 28-25 (.528)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 25-28 (.480)
Manager: Ron Gardenhire
General Manager: Bill Smith
Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome (96/96)
Who's Replacing Whom:
Carlos Gomez replaces Torii Hunter
Delman Young replaces Jason Tyner and Lew Ford
Brendan Harris replaces Luis Castillo
Adam Everett replaces Jason Bartlett
Alexi Casilli is filling in for Everett (DL) in the infield, while Howie Clark is filling in for Everett on the roster
Mike Lamb replaces Nick Punto at third base
Matt Macri is filling in for Punto (DL) on the bench
Craig Monroe replaces Jeff Cirillo
Nick Blackburn inherits Johan Santana's starts
Kevin Slowey inherits Matt Garza's starts
Livan Hernandez replaces Carlos Silva
Glen Perkins is taking the place of Scott Baker (DL) in the rotation
Baker inherited Sidney Ponson's starts
Jesse Crain inherits the relief innings of Pat Neshek (DL)
Brian Bass replaces Ramon Ortiz
Craig Breslow replaces the relief innings of Perkins, Blackburn, and Julio DePaula
25-man Roster:
1B - Justin Morneau (L)
2B - Alexi Casilla (S)
SS - Brendan Harris (R)
3B - Mike Lamb (L)
C - Joe Mauer (L)
RF - Michael Cuddyer (R)
CF - Carlos Gomez (R)
LF - Delmon Young (R)
Bench:
R - Craig Monroe (OF)
R - Mike Redmond (C)
L - Howie Clark (IF)
R - Matt Macri (IF)
Rotation:
R - Nick Blackburn
R - Livan Hernandez
R - Kevin Slowey
L - Glen Perkins
R - Boof Bonser
Bullpen:
R - Joe Nathan
R - Matt Guerrier
L - Dennys Reyes
R - Juan Rincon
R - Jesse Crain
R - Brian Bass
L - Craig Breslow
15-day DL: R - Adam Everett (SS), S - Nick Punto (IF), S - Matt Tolbert (IF), R - Scott Baker
60-day DL: R - Pat Neshek
Typical Lineup:
R - Carlos Gomez (CF)
S - Alexi Casilla (2B)
L - Joe Mauer (C)
L - Justin Morneau (1B)
R - Michael Cuddyer (RF)
L - Jason Kubel (DH)
R - Delmon Young (LF)
L - Mike Lamb (3B)
R - Brendan Harris (SS)
The Twins have turned over five spots in their lineup and two spots in their starting rotation from the end of last season. Building around the young core of Justin Morneau (27), Joe Mauer (25), Michael Cuddyer (29), and Jason Kubel (26), the three-through-six hitters in their order, the Twins brought in the top outfield prospects from the Devil Rays and Mets (22-year-olds Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez), but traded their top two pitchers for the privilege.
A year ago, Twins fans were hoping to see Francisco Liriano return from Tommy John surgery this year to join Johan Santana and the team's top pitching prospect Matt Garza in an unbeatable rotation. Instead, Santana was shipped to Queens for Gomez and three pitching prospects, Garza was shipped to Tampa with shortstop Jason Bartlett for Young, middle-infielder Brendan Harris, and minor league outfielder Jason Pridie, and Liriano is in triple-A struggling to rediscover his old magic after posting a 11.32 ERA in three big league starts in April. As Aaron Gleeman reported on Wednesday:
Francisco Liriano served up a grand slam to Brad Eldred while allowing six runs in his latest start at Triple-A, giving him a 4.38 ERA and 23-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in six starts since being sent back to Rochester. The good news is that Liriano has improved his control recently, walking a total of just five batters over his last four outings. The bad news is that he's still throwing 88-91 miles per hour, has yet to strike out more than five batters in any start, and isn't inducing a high percentage of ground balls.
As for the three pitching prospects received from the Mets, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey have 5.19 and 4.07 ERAs for triple-A Rochester, and Deolis Guerra has a 4.23 mark for high-A Fort Myers.
Gomez has been more encouraging. Most analysts and scouts believed he needed another year of seasoning at triple-A after being forced up to the majors last year by the injuries to Moises Alou and Endy Chavez, but Gomez has added 61 points to his batting average and shown the power that was absent during his big league debut last year. His walk and strikeout rates are both heading in the wrong direction, but he's shown he can grow at the major league level, and he's posting a 111 OPS+ and using his speed to great effect in the field and on the bases (17 steals in 22 attempts thus far). None of that holds true for Young, who is walking more and striking out less, but otherwise a drain on the offense with an 83 OPS+ and no homers heading into the final days of May.
In the other three spots, the Twins have replaced placeholders with stop-gaps, going from punchless Nick Punto to veteran platoon slugger Mike Lamb at third only to find themselves still waiting for Lamb to hit his second home run of the year. They replaced the good-field, no-hit Bartlett with the similarly skilled Adam Everett only to watch Everett bounce on and off the disabled list. Brendan Harris can neither field, nor hit, but with both Everett and Punto hurt, he's been their one reliably available middle infielder and thus has logged significant time at both second base and shortstop, starting all but nine of the Twins 53 games thus far.
Beyond the financial considerations that went into trading Johan Santana, the Twins felt free to trade two of their three best pitchers because they've had something of a bumper crop of starting prospects in recent years. Indeed, if you look past the innings-eating mass that is Livan Hernandez, you find a young rotation of emerging arms who, while they don't hold the promise of a Liriano or a Garza, could do for the Twins what Shawn Marcum and Jesse Litsch have done for the Blue Jays. That is, make starting pitching the least of their problems.
As the Yankees are discovering, these things work in strange ways. A year ago, the Twins were looking at Garza, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker, hoping for a 2008 return from Liriano, and hoping Boof Bonser would shape up. They then traded Garza, Bonser hasn't shaped up, Liriano's return hasn't gone as planned, and Baker is hurt. Still, Nick Blackburn (26) came out of nowhere in April to emerge as the staff's early season ace. Slowey (24) has made good on his command-and-control prospects thus far and is moving to take that underwhelming title from Blackburn, and Baker's injury replacement Glen Perkins (25), who starts tonight against Mike Mussina, has bounced back from a season spent languishing in the bullpen to reclaim his own prospect status by turning in four straight quality starts in Baker's stead with a sharp 4:1 K/BB ratio.
With the Twins still holding out hope for Liriano and expecting Baker to bounce Bonser when he returns next week, the organization's hopes for a strong post-Santana rotation persist. Meanwhile, even with Pat Neshek out for the year, their bullpen remains strong, behind ace closer Joe Nathan (1.66 ERA, 4.4 K/BB). Of course, as with the Blue Jays, this only ads up to a .500 team, but unlike in Toronto, there's some reason for Twins fans to be hopeful. Heck, they're only two games out of first place entering this weekend's four-game series with the Yankees. With Cleveland and Detroit continuing to scuffle, there's no reason the Twins couldn't surprise in the central if their rotation plans pan out and a couple of their struggling young hitters pull a second-half Cano.
"Joba Chamberlain received his long-awaited promotion, and the rookie right-hander will make his first start for the Yankees at home in the Bronx. Manager Joe Girardi said the 22-year-old will take the mound at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night against Toronto and be limited to 65 or 70 pitches."
Otherwise, congratulations.
Player A = .252 .356 .386 .742
Player B = .164 .242 .255 .497
Player A has been demoted to AAA. Player B is still occupying space (albeit on the bench) in the major leagues.
Player A is Chris Duncan. Player B is our own Forrest McSlump. I realize they player different positions for different teams (and each team has it's own problems), but SHEESH!
Player A = 127 AB
Player B = 55 AB
There's a game tonight? Joba's starting? These things are not they colored blue or red in cool graphics? There's no statistical significance!
If you gave him 75 more at bats he still wouldn't be close to his big brother.
He also does some sophisticated election math, based on his regression analyses of polling data.
12 What I'm gathering from Silvers' posts and some of the more informed comments is that many Clinton-McCain/Obama-McCain polls is that the presence of both Democratic candidates can cloud the results. The hypothesis is that having both questions can cause the poll-taker to make an implicit choice between them (might bias the result of which ever comparison is made second).
As a result, I don't expect the general election polls to be elucidated until the Dem nomination is decided: so, by the end of next week, hopefully.
Now, on to your misinterpretation of sample size:
126 AB > 55 AB. That means that over 55 AB, Shelley Duncan's slashstats (which you cited) have very little significance, relevant to what he's actually capable of at the major league level. See, for example: Jason Giambi's April. Of course, the reason for hanging on to Giambi was that he has MLB success.
As for the Duncan brothers, they have nearly identical minor league stats, except for slugging percentage:
Shelley: .258/.339/.474 in 8 seasons
Chris: .262/.337/.415 in 8 seasons
So there's every reason to believe based on this, and based on Shelley's 2007, that he can hit for power in the majors better than his brother.
He isn't capable of anything but playing in AAA. Josh Phelps was DFA'd last year with far better numbers than peter pan.
Also note that Giambi's BABIP was unreasonable on that early small sample, and even then his LD% was statistically compatible with his career line.
I just want him gone because he's useless and we don't have enough bench players as it is.
Moose is on fire? (Or Gomez is not the ideal lead-off batter?)
By the way, turning the page, if we win tonight we have a good shot at 3 out of 4 in this series. Let's hope this is good Moose tonight (and I apologize for insulting any Mooses by calling him "moose").
31 Hmm, have to mull that.
here's a second question: anybody think of a reason why there are no examples to question #1?
this isn't difficult stuff, Jeb. no one is saying you're a monster or you hate all women. we're sayin--better, I'm say that it's offensive to some and (I suspect) tedious as fuck to many...
He's a power hitting right handed first-baseman/backup-outfielder, whose batting average is depressed due to chance, based on his high line-drive percentage. If he walked a little more, he'd be a very respectable bench player.
As we've already established, the Yankees don't have a viable immediate replacement for Duncan.
By the way, Sandy REALLY makes up for his horrible offensive stats by his fine defense. That was a helluva throw to Derrick. I'm really seeing your points about him.
Well this is an annoying inning...
I agree with you, but there's evidence of popular sentiment the other way.
In my opinion, the people who immediately cling to PC stuff, are the ones who tell gay jokes and pass around porn at work.
I'm sure if I referred to rilkefan as a member of a certain former political party in Germany (due to his obvious hatred for free speech and the American way) I'd really get some PC heat. But at the end of the day getting this upset over a fucking nickname is idiotic. Lord knows I've read enough derisive nicknames on this blog ("the big useless", "Carol Pavano", "Farnsworthless", etc. etc.) to be able to call bullshit when I see it.
Is Duncan really a better option at 1st then Jason? It's rock/hardplace material, but I feel better with Jason there.
Long time no see.
How we doing?
I really really hope that I never read you using any negative nicknames to describe any of our players.
;)
4-1.
Yeah, and what's up with the sound?
I ordered my Moose medium well, this is well, done.
I'm not amused.
Hey, btw, anyone know the latest on Jorgie?
Cliff Notes: Posada looks good in, and says he feels good after, 18 extended spring training at bats.
Side Note: How long does extended spring training go? Spring's almost over!
And JD is 34. I know he's alays a bit banged up, but 34 isn't that old. Swap him with Mats if you must.
Bobby! Go for the cycle.
Right on, Alex!
I think the mustache hurt his aerodynamics there, though. Poor choice, Jason...
I'm sleepy
February 5, 2004: Traded by the Texas Rangers to the New York Yankees for Jose Garcia (minors).
March 25, 2004: Traded by the New York Yankees to the Houston Astros for Juan DeLeon (minors).
The first trade was after Aaron Boone's injury. The second trade was after the A-Rod trade.
Clockwork!
Two clockwork runs!
God, how I love clockwork.
109 I didn't see it, but Derek evidently is up to his old tricks with the throwing arm.
Let's hear it for the MelkMan!
dammit Melky!
I see, I see!
Although I guess it was my latin notation which confused you: an abbreviation for "confer," which translates to english as "compare to."
Man, I'm glad I took Latin in college instead of a useful language...
If the ability to read more than 2 millennia worth of literature isn't useful, I don't know what is.
Latin rocks!
: )
Flash totally called it.
I saw it that time!--Alex admired his drive again!
Joe, you wouldn't hit a guy with glasses, would you?
http://youtube.com/watch?v=4yxWhEpirF8
Shelley, C'mon.
Also, lots of Tums, please.
Quality start.
And pigs fly again.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200207030.shtml
I think he is pitching for the HOF.
Earned runs, 2008:
Jose Veras- 5 (10 IP)
Edwar Ramirez- 0 (14.7 IP)
Luckily it was Mexico, NY. That still cracks me up.
Why Cano did not get the runner in front of him I have no idea.
Surprised to see Edwar come right in... Joe looking for strikeouts?
Those Germans are tough people.
269 so true.
(By not working the count he ensures Farnsworth comes in with just a two run lead, causing me to chow down on Tums.)
273 ...
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=20&type=1&season=2008
He's second.
And we make it! Who said the Yanks can't win without Joba as set up?!
Oscar Villareal- 3.74
Pat Misch- 2.84
Chuck James- 2.74
Kyle Farnsworth- 2.70
Jason Jennings- 2.68
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=20&type=1&season=2008
Left On Base Percentage... Farnsy is 7th in the ML with 95.4%. Hideki Okajima is #1 with 100%... Rivera is 13th with 91.7%
I want to rave, but I have no words.
My God.
8th W for Moose.
2-2 in Baltimore, bottom of the 12th
1st and 2nd, one out, Timlin on the mound.
But still, he does, and I feel good for him.
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