Baseball Toaster: Bronx Banter : (Tell Me Why?) I Don't Like Mondays

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Players

Major Leauge Roster:

Infielders:
J. Giambi BR BP E MLB
R. Cano BR BP E MLB
D. Jeter BR BP E MLB
A. Rodriguez BR BP E MLB
W. Betemit BR BP E MLB mi
C. Ransom BR BP E MLB mi
J. Miranda BR BC mi

Outfielders:
B. Abreu BR BP E MLB
J. Damon BR BP E MLB
X. Nady BR BP E MLB
H. Matsui BR BP E MLB mi
B. Gardner BR E MLB mi
M. Cabrera BR BP E MLB mi

Catchers:
I. Rodriguez BR BP E MLB
J. Molina BR BP E MLB
C. Moeller BR BP E MLB mi
F. Cervelli BR BC mi

Starting Pitchers:
M. Mussina BR BP BC E
A. Pettitte (L) BR BP BC E
P. Hughes BR BP BC E mi
C. Pavano BR BP BC E mi
A. Aceves BR E mi

Relief Pitchers:
M. Rivera BR BP BC E
J. Chamberlain BR BP BC E
D. Marte (L) BR BP BC E
J. Veras BR BP BC E mi
E. Ramirez BR BP BC E mi
B. Bruney BR BP BC E mi
D. Giese BR BP BC E mi
C. Britton BR BP BC E mi
P. Coke (L) BR BC E mi
D. Rasner BR BP BC E mi
S. Ponson BR BP BC E mi
D. Robertson BR BC E mi
H. Sanchez BC mi

15-day DL:
C. Wang BR BP BC E
60-day DL:
J. Posada BR BP E MLB
J. Albaladejo BR BP BC E mi
A. Brackman BC

Coaches:
J. Girardi (Mgr) BR BP BC
R. Thomson (Bench) BC
Kevin Long (Hit) BR
D. Eiland (Pitch) BR BP BC
B. Meacham (3B) BR BP BC
T. Peña (1B) BR BP BC
M. Harkey (Pen) BR BP BC

40-man Roster:
AAA
S. Duncan BR BP E MLB mi
J. Christian BR BP E MLB mi
I. Kennedy BR BP BC E mi
C. Wright (L) BR BP BC E mi
J. Marquez BR BC mi

Designated for Assignment:
B. Traber (L) BR BP BC E mi

Select Minor Leaguers:

AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees:
B. Castro BR mi DL
C. Basak BR BP BC E MLB mi
E. Duncan BC mi
N. Green BR mi
B. Broussard BR mi
M. Carson BC mi
C. Stewart BR BP E MLB mi
J. Brown BC mi DL
K. Igawa (L) BR BP BC E JB mi
M. Melancon BC mi
J.B. Cox BC mi
S. Strickland BR BC mi
S. Jackson BC mi
E. Milton BR BC mi DL
V. Zambrano BR BC mi DL

AA Trenton Thunder:
K. Russo BR mi
R. Peña BC mi DL
C. Malec BC mi
M. Vechionacci BC mi DL
A. Jackson BC mi
C. Curtis BC mi
E. Gonzalez BR mi
P.J. Pilittere BC mi
J. Jones BC mi
G. Kontos BC mi
J. Nuñez BC mi
B. Smith BC mi DL
A. Claggett BC mi
O. Perez BR BC mi
M. Gardner BC mi
K. Whelan BC mi
W. Arias (L) BC mi

A Tampa Yankees:
E. Nuñez BC mi
C.J. Henry BC mi DL
T. Battle BC mi
K. Anson BC mi
J. Gil BC mi
A. Horne BC mi DL
Z. McAllister BC mi
W. De La Rosa (L) BC mi
C. Garcia BC mi

Low-A Charleston RiverDogs:
J. Snyder BC mi
M. Cusick BC mi
B. Suttle BC mi
A. Romine BC mi
J. Montero BC mi
D. Betances BC mi
J. Heredia BC mi
J. Ortiz BC mi
C. Heyer BC mi

Low-A Staten Island Yankees:
D. Adams mi
P. Venditte mi

Rookie Gulf Coast Yankees:
C. Joseph mi
C. Smith mi
K. Higashioka mi

Key:
BR = Baseball-Reference
BP = Baseball Prospectus
BC = Baseball Cube (past mL stats)
mi = MiLB.com (current mL stats)
E = ESPN (current splits, game logs)
MLB = MLB.com hit charts
JB = Japanese Baseball.com

The Recently Departed

2008 Yankees:
R. Sexson BR BP E MLB
M. Ensberg BR BP E MLB CLE mL
A. Gonzalez BR BP E MLB mi WAS
K. Farnsworth BR BP BC E DET
L. Hawkins BR BP BC E HOU
S. Patterson BR BC mi SD

Nady/Marte Trade:
J. Tabata BC mi
J. Karstens BR BP BC E mi
R. Ohlendorf BR BP BC E
D. McCutchen BC mi

2008 Campers/mLers:
C. Woodward BR BP BC E MLB PHI mL
J. Lane BR mi BOS mL
G. Porter BC mi WAS mL
J.D. Closser BR mi SD mL
S. Henn (L) BR BP BC E mi SD
H. Phillips (L) BR BC mi TB mL
S. White BR BC mi

2007 Yankees:
J. Torre (Mgr) BR BP BC LAD
D. Mientkiewicz BR BP BC E MLB PIT
A. Phillips BR BP BC E MLB mi CIN
J. Phelps BR BP BC E MLB STL
M. Cairo BR BP BC E MLB SEA
K. Thompson BR BP BC E MLB mi PIT
B. Sardinha BC mi SEA mL
W. Nieves BR BP BC E MLB WAS
R. Clemens BR BP BC E mi
T. Clippard BR BP BC E mi WAS
L. Vizcaino BR BP BC E COL $7.5m/2yrs
M. DeSalvo BR BP BC E mi ATL mL
M. Myers (L) BR BP BC E LAD mL
R. Villone (L) BR BP BC E mi STL
S. Proctor BR BP BC E LAD
J. Brower BR BP BC E mi CIN mL
C. Bean BR BP BC E mi ATL mL

2007 Campers and mLers:
E. Durazo BR BP BC E MLB mi
A. Cannizaro BR BP BC E MLB mi TB mL
A. Chavez BR BP BC E MLB mi LAD mL
K. Reese BR BP BC E MLB mi
R. Chavez BR BP BC E MLB mi PIT mL
O. Santos BC mi BAL mL
T. Pratt BR BP BC E MLB
T.J. Beam BR BP BC E mi PIT mL
B. Kozlowski (L) BR BP BC E mi Japan

Molina Trade:
J. Kennard BC mi

Abreu Trade
M. Smith (L) BR BP BC E mi PHI
C. Monasterios BC mi PHI
J. Sanchez mi PHI

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(Tell Me Why?) I Don't Like Mondays

2008-04-28 05:41

by Alex Belth

It is a cold, rainy spring day in New York. The skies are dark and the Yankees and their fans are going to continue feeling anxious until their is more definitive word on the extent of Jorge Posada's injury. If he needs surgery, he could be lost from 4-6 months. According to Tyler Kepner in the Times:

Posada will return to New York with the Yankees after Monday's game, and he said he wanted to visit Dr. James Andrews, the orthopedic surgeon in Birmingham, Ala., who operated on his labrum in 2001.

Andrews has read the M.R.I. results, and Posada has said that surgery will not be necessary. But the problem has not improved as Posada hoped, raising the specter of an operation.

After the initial M.R.I., the Yankees said the injury was a strained shoulder. But a strain is a euphemism for a tear, and Posada seemed concerned about the extent of it.

"It's not getting any better, so we've got to find out what it really is," Posada said. "The M.R.I. showed a strained muscle, and I think it's more than that."

..."It's early, and we've got to be smart about it," Posada said.

..."But it's really disappointing to work really hard and not feel good. I worked really hard to be back at it. I'm even apologizing to the Yankees, because I signed a good contract."

Meanwhile, it's an election year, so here is a pefect twist in the Roger Clemens saga.

Book it, Pluto

Terry Pluto, the veteran Cleveland newspaperman, is also the author of several entertaining books, including The Curse of Rocky Colavito and Loose Balls. His latest effort, Dealing, is covers the Indians from their Gashouse Gorilla days in the 90s through the Dolans, up to the current team. Over at the Plain-Dealer, five chapters of Pluto's book are excerpted. Check 'em out.

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Comments

2008-04-28 06:33:13

1. Sliced Bread

Speaking of .500 ball, and good news/bad news: looks about 50-50 for tonight's game. Crap forecast in Cleveland: 60% chance of showers, dank cold.
50% chance of Good Moose, 50% the other shows up.
Feeling lucky? Yeah, why not?

2008-04-28 07:35:22

2. williamnyy23

It seems as if the injury hasn't affected Posada with the bat. If he does need surgery, I wonder if any consideration would be given to having him remain active as a DH/PH. I know it would tie up a roster spot, but the Yankees could manage that by trimming a pitcher from the bullpen and utlizing a Scranton shuttle when the relievers get overworked.

2008-04-28 07:36:38

3. williamnyy23

Looking ahead, the Yankees offense had better get healthy over the next four games because they are lined up to face Bedard and Felix over the weekend.

2008-04-28 07:37:32

4. horace-clarke-era

Cranky as I am about Roger, and I buy Roger Angell's wonderful phrase in the New Yorker that he was 'deeply weird' in front of the House committee, and I have no personal doubts after reading the medical depositions that he used steroids and lied under oath ... I find the dredging of long-ago sexual transgressions SUCH a non-issue.

There's even something ludicrous about the way it was explained in that snippet piece Alex links. His defamation case gets undermined by previously unknown transgressions that NOW come out and thereby show he did not have a previously good character?

I find it shabby, though I suppose if McNamee's previous alleged sexual transgression is in play someone might say it is fair to balance this ... but I think it just serves to wildly deflect attention from the real issues. I know that in law if Clemens' lawyers try to paint him as a pilar of virtue against a scumbag, they do open themselves up to 'what pillar of virtue?' but it takes the whole thing SO far afield.

Yes, the election year comment is a smart one ... everything becomes in-play?

And yes, everyone in Yankeeland will be waiting for Posada's results. It seems obvious to me the Yanks weren't playing games with his injury as they released their #3 catcher! You don't DO that if you have any slight worries about your #1.

2008-04-28 07:41:10

5. williamnyy23

Little disappointing to see a link like the one on Clemens in this bastion of integrity and credibility. It would be nice if accusations alleging statutory rape would contain at least some document evidence.

2008-04-28 07:42:00

6. Just fair

Loose Balls. That's what she said. : )
Man, the fact that the boys are a game over 500 and 1.5 out of first with all the goings on so far is a minor miracle.
We'll see what these guys are made of now. They survived without the Captain a few years ago for a good length of time, but something tells me Eric Almonte does not catch.

2008-04-28 07:44:49

7. dianagramr

I'd rather have only one season left of Moose than 5.5 of Barry Zito.

2008-04-28 07:45:52

8. dianagramr

... maybe the Rays CAN get to 80 wins this season!

2008-04-28 08:01:39

9. Rob Middletown CT

8 I think they can. They're going to be a major PITA this year. Thankfully the Red Sox have to play them too :)

I still don't see what others see in Ohlendorf. He throws hard, but his command is suspect and he's hittable. Bad combo.

Granted, Girardi probably shouldn't have put Saturday's game on him like that (paging Mariano...) and the offense spit the bit (Jeter's DP was sooooo painful, especially since I had just said, right out loud "like to see a squeeze here").

I'm terrified of losing Posada for an extended period. Ack.

2008-04-28 08:18:30

10. ny2ca2dc

Even aside from how much it hurts the offense, losing JoPo just makes me sad. You know his heart is breaking. Jeter might get antsy on the bench, but Po's got the red ass and all, this has got to be just killing him. Hopefully this is something 2 weeks of rest can cure. Hopefully Molina is back to 100%. Sure is a shame Cervelli is hurt, this would've been a nice time to get him a taste of the bigs. Dumb Rays.

2008-04-28 08:30:04

11. pistolpete

2 Posada already shot down the possibility of playing anywhere but behind the plate:

''I'm not playing first base,'' he said. ''I'm a catcher. We've got seven first basemen.''

Here's the link: http://tinyurl.com/45w7ez

2008-04-28 08:40:10

12. Shaun P

1996: Yanks primary C: 471 PA, .244 EqA, 11.5 VORP

1997: Yanks primary C: 433 PA, .222 EqA, -6.1 VORP

We've been spoiled by Posada for years, and Mike Stanley from '93'-95, but the Yanks have won with crappy hitting catchers before. It can be done. The Angels did it in 2002 (primary C: 459 PA, 0.206 EqA, -7.9 VORP). The White Sox did it in 2005 (primary C: 497 PA, 0.243 EqA, 11.9 VORP). The Cards did it in 2006 (461 PA, 0.204 EqA, -19.7 VORP).

(The Diamondbacks kinda did it in 2001. But don't look at how the D'backs offense performed in 2001 by advanced metrics. Seriously. You'll thank me later.)

2008-04-28 09:05:13

13. OldYanksFan

There's no doubt that for offense, Po can't be replaced. You might call this heresy, but Molina's defense and throwing were somewhat of a relief. The question if we lose Po is, will the rest of the team step up?

If Giambi can post a .850+ OPS, JD continues to hit as he has of late, and Cano, Jeter and Abreu hit like they should, I think we will be fine. After all, a little less O and a little more D is not a horrible idea for our team as curently constructed.

No, we are not a better team with Molina instead of with Po, but we may not be that much worse. I guess a real question is can Molina hold up as a regular catcher. Good thing Girardi hit the ice cream!

2008-04-28 09:14:21

14. Schteeve

That whole, "We've got seven firstbasemen, makes me love Posada even more."

2008-04-28 09:15:05

15. Schteeve

13 Replacement Level said that losing Posada is a six run a month downgrade.

2008-04-28 09:15:43

16. RIYank

13 You're forgetting the biggest good surprise of April: Melky's OPS+ is 133 (he's slugging .506).
I don't think he can maintain it. But if he's close, that's a huge upgrade over last year.

2008-04-28 09:18:22

17. rsmith51

I wonder why we don't see more squeezes. Does anyone know the success rate of a squeeze? I was at last Tuesday's game, and I said to my wife that I would like to see Jeter squeeze, when he had the bases loaded. He looked bad striking out before Abreu hit the GS.

2008-04-28 09:18:28

18. williamnyy23

11 But did he say that knowing his only other option was not playing at all?

2008-04-28 09:19:37

19. williamnyy23

17 I am not a huge fan of the squeeze, but in Saturday's game, the 9th inning was begging and screaming for a squeeze. Girardi's lack of action there was a huge disappointment to me.

2008-04-28 09:26:05

20. dianagramr

From Will on bp.com:

Posada has a torn rotator cuff, the same muscle (the subscapularis) that has Rich Harden on the shelf. Posada will head to Birmingham for an examination and consultation with Jim Andrews. After the announcement, Posada seemed very emotional, which could indicate that he knows this is a longer-term injury or could just be a reaction to being placed on the DL for the first time. A subscapular tear is a bad thing for a catcher, and it isn't something that one can come back from quickly, though surgery doesn't look like an option. I'm setting Posada's DXL at 30, but remember that he could come back as a DH more quickly than that.

2008-04-28 09:27:18

21. dianagramr

From Will on bp.com:

2008-04-28 09:28:29

22. dianagramr

nice touch .... 2008 IS the 25th anniversary of "WarGames" :-)

2008-04-28 09:34:56

23. RIYank

17 I've been trying to find out the success rate of squeezes for a while and I can't find the information anywhere. I think I once checked Strat-O-Matic to see what percentages they used, on the theory that somebody there went to some trouble to make it realistic, but now I can't remember what I found.
My bet: with a bunter like Jeter, you score the run squeezing about as often as you do letting him swing, and of course the chance of a better result than the successful sac is much higher when Jeter swings.

2008-04-28 09:39:38

24. williamnyy23

23 But the chance of a worse result (the DP) is much less. Percentages really blur the point though because that particular situation seemed to be the perfect storm for a bunt. Jeter is a great bunter; Damon is a very fast runner; and a dominant Mariano is poised to come in if you take the lead.

2008-04-28 09:47:38

25. RIYank

24 I think the chance of Jeter hitting into a DP (with the bases loaded) is about 5%. So the chance of a worse result isn't much less.

Damon is a good runner, but that decreases the chance of a DP, so I think it makes the squeeze look worse.

2008-04-28 09:50:57

26. RIYank

25 Hm, I take that back. It must be higher than 5%. I was looking at all of his bases loaded plate appearances, but some of those were obviously with two outs and 0 possibility of a DP, so they would have to be removed from the denominator.

2008-04-28 09:59:21

27. Shaun P

23 I'm positive the last few BP annuals have said how often each manager runs the squeeze, but I'm not sure if they included the success rate or not. It would be a small data set, but its a start.

2008-04-28 12:32:55

28. EdB

I think you'd have to look at K% and pop up % too in addition to DPs to comapare that scenario. It is highly unlikely that he would do any of the three on a bunt and none of the three would result in a run. So all that I would guess the odds of scoring a run on a bunt would be better than swinging away.

2008-04-28 13:41:16

29. RIYank

28 But sac bunts also result in Ks and pop-ups sometimes; also the runner from third sometimes gets gunned down.

The reason we differ on which is better, though, is probably mainly that I am skeptical about the success rate of suicide squeezes. My guess is that with a bunter like Jeter it's around 50%. Most people would guess higher. Without data, of course, it's all just guessing.

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