I think Moose will be decent against the lesser teams, but last night, and this week, illustrates clearly why Joba is better off in the starting rotation. Without Joba, the Yankees were still able to protect three late inning leads, so it makes you wonder how much better he would have been last night. A solid effort from the starter could have meant a win.

Obviously, the innings limit is preventing Joba from being in the rotation regardless, but to all those who don't see why a good starter is better than a great set-up guy, this past week has been a good illustration, albeit in a small sample.

So are the Yankees going to put cooked moose on the menu at the stadium? Replacement Level's got a good article up today about how basically he's not fooling anyone, only 5% of his pitches are swung at and missed. I like him and all, but I think, perhaps after the All Star game, that he needs to switch with Joba.

you got to hidey-hide, you got to jump and run...

love the title, Alex!

and good for Manny, dusting it off Fogerty stylee:

"doot doot doo, lookin' out my backdoor..."

4

but I highly doubt he can play:

"centerfield"

The Moose is cooked. One of out every four as decent starts is not a fifth starter on a contending team. It's time they trade him to the Phillies or the Mutts.

And what - no props to the Melkman? The kid hit his third dinger of the season and off Papsmear. We could be looking at our 2009 RF if he comes close to a .850 OPS

1 Moose's ineffectiveness only helps get Joba in the rotation, agreed. Who are the other options? Igawa? Please.

And, Albaladejo is not Joba, but at least we know there is depth available for bullpen roles. Shoot, Moose has been death to lefties, he could work out of the pen, relieve the kids every so often . . .

Before deciding that Moose is cooked, I would like to see a few more games against a team that doesn't employ Manny Ramirez. If not for ManRam, Mussina's two starts against Boston weren't really all that bad. Just because Moose no longer has what it takes to get the great hitters out, doesn't mean he is completely cooked. What I do think, however, is Moose needs to learn how to pick his battles better.

8 I agree.

Anyone notice the first pitch last night? Ump called it a ball, Moose turned and made one of his patented "I can't believe he called that a ball" faces. I had a feeling right then that it was going to be one of those nights. I don't remember him being quite so grumpy about that stuff a few years ago, but certainly in the past couple years he lets it bug him. He's entered the Tom Glavine stage in his career where if he doesn't get those borderline calls, he's cooked.

Moose had no plan to get out Manny. Five fastballs to the outside corner, hoping to get a called strike, doesn't seem to work so well.

The TV announcers called that 2nd bomb to left field as if they knew it was coming. Amazing. Good color work by Flash.

Losing to Beckett sucks. Big time. Worse than losing to Pedro.

Losing to Beckett, Schrill, or Paps is worse than any other baseball indignity. I hate them all, with their smug smirks, loudmouth rants and gas faces.

Not that I'm angry or anything.

At least they touched up Papelbon a bit. Knowing they have gotten to him in the past and can continue to do so is a good thing to have in your hip pocket.

Here's some numbers:
4/16: NYY v BOS, 9 innings, time of game 4:08
4/17: SD v COL, 22 innings, time of game 6:16

8 9 i agree too. manny probably could have hit a beach ball out last night. hitting ellsbury twice really made things tough.

6 i'll give melky some props. still has a lot of work to do - but it is nice to see some walks and more power - just hope he doesn't go up there trying to hit hrs - i would like to see some more doubles.
i really want to see melky succeed.

I do think people are making a bit too much of Moose's suckitude. It's clear he's not even a league average pitcher anymore, and he's not goinig to give the team much of a chance to win against a good team (like the Sawx). But as a fifth starter holding down a slot until Joba can replace him at mid-season, he ought to be servicable. Hopefully. This is what he is now - against the free swinging Rays, or teams that are just poor offensivly, he'll look pretty good, but good hitters will kill him. If Joe G gets a bit more assertive and starts calling for 4 balls when Pena or some other monster is up, Moose should make it to the break. He ought to be a workable long reliever in the pen to finish out the year too. I don't think he has any trade value at all, so I don't get the calls to trade him, as Alan Horne is hurt and no lock to do any better out of the gate.

As for Beckett, he's legitimately a top pitcher at the top of his game, douchy as he is. I hate losing to the Daniel Cabreras and other assorted dreck more.

9 Flash is very good at breaking down the game and predicting events before they happen. He is even better than Girardi was when he did a lot of games for YES before moving onto Florida. Something tells me Flash will be managing somewhere in a few years.

10 I might be in the minority on this, but Beckett, Papi, Papelbon, etc. do not inspire much hatred. I guess I am just old enough to still look at the Red Sox as the little brothers in this rivalry, so I don't feel myself brought to that level of resentment. Maybe younger Yankee fans look at the teams on more equal plains, so that's why they hold the same level of hate that was usually directed more from the Boston side?

'"You can't just go out and walk him every time he steps in the box," Mussina said.'

On a night where you already know you don't have your best stuff, Why not? An unpleasant decision for sure, but seriously, which part of "DON'T THROW MANNY ANYTHING HE CAN HIT" sounds suspicious?

Perhaps we'd tolerate Papelbon's silly glare/stare and primal screams if he had a fu manchu mustache like this guy did:

http://www.alhrabosky.com/images/MVC-095F.JPG

12 A double would be nice at this point. He's all singles and 3 taters. Not that I'm complaining, much. But a 15/15 Melky with his plate discipline would be super and would probably result in at least a .800 OPS combined with good defense.

Though, again it's nice to see the Ajax & Tabata knocking the snot out of the ball in AA. And this Montero kid - he's a monster.

15
"You can't just go out and walk him every time he steps in the box"

Worked pretty well against Bonds.

18

OTOH, I don't see any Rich Aurilias or Pedro Felizes batting behind Manny

14 I don't care much for Papelbon, but that'd be true whatever uniform he wore. I respect the heck out of Ortiz, but dislike him because he always seems to beat the Yanks; I felt the same way about Griffey Jr back in the 90s.

Beckett, though, I usually can't stand (more so than any Sox this side of Schilling). But for some reason, Josh Beckett just didn't bother me last night. He looked beatable. Not his stuff, but him. Just a feeling on my part, but there it was.

13 Funny you mention Daniel Cabrera, as the Yanks face him tonight. Ugh! The Orioles. This will either be further salve for the bats, or a nightmare. I'm not sure whether to be repulsed or excited about the 18 hours' worth of games over the next 3 days.

18 19 Discretion is the better part of valor?

Maybe Moose can't get Manny out, but I'm pleased he tries. Sure he's failed spectacularly, but the old guy has some fire in his belly. Nothing wrong with that.

7 Rasner has been filthy at AAA so far:

3 GS, 17 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 16 K

And he's already shown he can be a league average pitcher. If you admit that Mooose isn't that 13 , then there's a place for Rasner on this team.

21 You can't be serious!? What's wrong with it is losing 3 out of every 4 games he starts.

"At least they touched up Papelbon a bit. Knowing they have gotten to him in the past and can continue to do so is a good thing to have in your hip pocket."

It's an absolute meaningless thing to have in your back pocket. It doesn't carry over. The yankees have hit papelbon before. Remember arod last year? No reliever is perfect, not papelbon, not rivera. It happens, it'll happen again. You still don't want to face either in the ninth.

"I guess I am just old enough to still look at the Red Sox as the little brothers in this rivalry, so I don't feel myself brought to that level of resentment."

While I applaud your seeming lack of child like hatred it seems to have been replaced by smug elitism. Which is fine. It would take several lifetimes for the sox to catch the yankees in a historical view even if they continued to win.

But little brother has seemingly grown up and is roughing big brother up a little, wouldn't you say? If the sox won another championship would anything change or would you still hang your hat on championships won from before you were born?

8 i don't understand the argument. mussina has been pretty bad for a few years now. how many more starts do we have to see? his fastball is now sitting in the mid 80s (and somehow tends towards the middle of the plate more often than not). his changeup is therefore completely ineffective. the only good pitch he has left is the knuckle curve, and he only seems to have that working every 3rd start or so. i think he's looked all right for what he is in some starts, but his stuff just sucks now. he's not going to get any better.

People need to relax about Moose. He is our (in quality) #5 starter. He is there to eat innings the Trip Aces can't because of IP limits. We are hoping for a 5 or better ERA, so he's a tad off a 5.75.

But if Moose is cooked, what about Phil and IPK, who have worse ERAs? Are they cooked too? Dump them and get a few used up vets?

Moose was NOT locating last night. He has already showed us this year, when he does locate, we are still in the game... that is... when are offense decides to play fulltime.

So Phil, IPK, Giambi, Cano and Damon are off to shit starts. Live with it. There is little about player stats, and team standings, that will resemble the final numbers in September.

I, for one, feel confident we will be in the playoffs. We have a better team than last year, are doing better than last year at this point, and still have some kids that may help us out along the way.

Our pitching is better then last year. Our offense just needs to find it's stride. And don't forget Cashman and his magic mid-season aquisitions. Lots of money coming off the books soon. Cash is just a tiger picking his prey and getting ready to pounce. I'm not worried.

26 i for one am hoping for a lot better than a 5 era from any starter.

20 Ya, that was kind of the point. I hope the boys punish him tonight - I'll be at the game. Phil just needs to remember he's facing one of the worst hitting teams in the majors, and just go at guys. I don't care if Millar stumbles into a home run, I want Phil to quit nibbling.

22 I really like Rasner, but he has most definitely not shown that he can be an average big leaguer. It's quite possible, maybe even likely, that last night's performance from Moose is what a typical Rasner outing would look like. If Moose keeps spitting the bit, and Rasner keeps looking good, I'd be all for giving Razzle a shot, but lets give Moose a couple more starts.

24
"It's an absolute meaningless thing to have in your back pocket. It doesn't carry over. The yankees have hit papelbon before. Remember arod last year? No reliever is perfect, not papelbon, not rivera. It happens, it'll happen again. You still don't want to face either in the ninth."

They have hit him in the past, and they build on that and that success will continue to help the Yanks hit Papelbon in the future. I don't think there's anything meaningless about that.

Each bit of success each Yankee has against the guy (or any pitcher, really) forces him to decide in the future whether to keep using his strengths, or to adjust and try something different. If it's mid-October and he is facing Posada, would would rather have Papelbon thinking:
A) I K'd this guy 8 of 10 AB's this year; he can't hang with my stuff...or
B) Hmm, he ripped a double off a good fastball, and homered on a splitter; how should I approach this guy?

27 Right, obviously, but where's it going to come from, and at what cost?

24 >> It doesn't carry over. >>

Sure does.

Having confidence against a certain pitcher is the entire reason we're all talking about Manny so much this past week.

24 I don't mind being a smug elitist :) I guess if the Red Sox keep winning championships, maybe that would change a little, but we are from that tipping point, especially when you consider the Red Sox have only finished ahead of the Yankees in the standings one time since 1996.

I also don't get the argument that says championships before you were born don't really count. I consider my a baseball historian, and honestly view all 26 championships as adding up the greatness that is the Yankee franchise. Just because I didn't see them doesn't mean they don't count. Also, it is important to keep in mind that once won, every championship is in the past.

25 Mussina has not been pretty bad for years. In 2006 he was actually very good and last year he was below average, but not off the charts. The jury is out on whether Mussina can settle in between those two parameters for one more season.

30 good question

33 i guess i exaggerated, but the trend line is pretty clear, especially when you actually evaluate his stuff.

26 How many walks did he have? And 20 IP in 4 games started is very far from eating innings. He's hurting the team with his suckitude and draining the bullpen in the process. The difference with Hughes and IPK is they will only get better. Moose will only get worse.

28 Rasner carries a 107 ERA+ in 53 IP (small sample noted). That evidence suggests a league average pitcher. Nothing suggests he wouldn't be - not even his mL stats.

33 If anything's the outlier is 2006, and even then it was only half that season. From 2004 to now, Moose has consistently gotten much worse - fewer K's, more walks, and more hits. Simply put, he should not be a starter for a contending AL team. And perhaps that's the problem - maybe the Yankees aren't fit to contend this year.

36 After noting small sample, why would you conclude that 53IP was an indicator of anything?

2006 was an outlier, but 2004-2005 was an ERA+ of 96 and 98, which is a shade below league average. I don't think you can expect to get more than league average out of the #5 slot.

36 You can't just throw in a "small sample noted" and then go on to completely ignore the implications of that caveat. His mL stats do in fact, suggest exactly the opposite of your assertion, hence PECOTA's weighted mean projection of a 5.24 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, about 4.5 K/9, and 2:1 K/BB. That ain't a league average pitcher. I think he might be the best guy to spot for an injury, or spot for a road-killed-Moose, or as a long man, but that's really it. Again, I like Rasner, but League Average is nothing to scoff at, and Rasner getting to that standard is his upside, not projection.

"Simply put, he should not be a starter for a contending AL team. And perhaps that's the problem - maybe the Yankees aren't fit to contend this year." That' absurd. I mean, have you ever read any of Cliff's analysis?

36 I think some people fail to realize that since 1996, the Yankees have frequently had one or more starting pitchers hover around league average, and often times fall significantly below it.

37 The point wasn't what 2004-2005 were, in terms of ERA+, but what it indicates about where he was headed, especially when you examine the peripherals. The first half of 2006 was an outlier. It does nothing to suggest that the "jury is still out" on Moose. It's come back with a clear verdict for 3.5 of the last 4 seasons.

38 Funny enough, that prediction from PECOTA is still better than what Moose has been giving. Worse, I have no idea where PECOTA comes up with those numbers since they don't publish their formula. So all I can look at are Rasner's career mL numbers:

101 GS, 535 IP, 3.41 ERA, 9.15 H/9, 0.52 hr/9, 2.41 bb/9, 6.78 k/9, 1.28 WHIP

That seems like a fine #5 to me, especially in light of his 53 IP.

More to the same point as Hughes and IPK, Rasner may still get better. Moose will only get worse. The last four seasons show exactly that. The Moose is been hunted, hung, and dried for a long time now.

37 but now you're going back to 3 and 4 years ago to show that he was league average. last year he was below average. why would he get better? his stuff has gotten progressively worse. he's throwing batting practice fastballs and "changeups" that are about 5 mph slower. then sometimes he has a good knuckle curve, but he needs it to be really good because it doesn't trick anyone and isn't meant to. if it doesn't have a very sharp break, it gets hit also. i don't see any upside with mussina.

40 P.s. Those mL totals from Rasner don't include his outstanding start to this season.

41 I think you've hit upon the solution to Moose's problems. He should just do his best Wakefield impression, hone that knuckle-curve, and throw it 80% of the time. Seriously because hitters are simply waiting for the times he throws the meatball. Even if he only throws it once in each at-bat, that means every other hitter will guess right.

One more thought: Rasner only has to be the 5th starter for May. Then slot Joba in. Between Britton, Patterson, and Edwar, they have plenty of decent bullpen arms. What's so painful is last night's game was winnable with a decent starter.

43 Oh yeah, and the problem is that Moose is throwing the meatball multiple times each at-bat and multiple times to each batter during the game. If anything, batters should see the meatball once a game. But he's too damn stubborn to change his approach that drastically. Manny homered on the exact same pitch twice.

43 but i don't really want to see what would happen if hitters start to wait on that knuckle curve. its movement isn't unpredictable like a real knuckleball.

40 So you are just going to ignore that Moose was league average in 2004-5 and above average in 2006, and just cling to his performance in 2007, which it self wasn't that far from league average, especially if you parse it the way you want to with 2006? That is very selective, just as it is very selective to project Rasner's minor league stats with no context and then confirm your conclusion on the basis of 53 IP.

41 Are you suggesting that no one can better when they reach Moose's age? Why shouldn't three of his past four seasons be relevant?

For example, in 2004, at age 41, was Jamie Moyer done when he had an ERA+ of 87 (like Moose had last year)? He rebounded to have an ERA+ of 98 and 104 the following year.

Also, in the first half of 2007, Mussina was pretty solid, posting an ERA of 4.62 and an OPS against of .762. A horrendous August is what produced Moose's poor season stats, but he did rebound to have a very good September: ERA of 3.49 and OPSa of .727.

In other words, there hasn't been a conclusive trend on Moose. He has been up and down over the past 4 seasons, as well as up in down within each season. You may not like Moose, or believe he will get worse based on observation, but you can't make the argument that his record shows a clear decline to the point that he can't be league average.

Just to provide context on Rasner, at ages 21-23 he was still only pitching in A level ball. At age 24 in AA, he only had an ERA of 3.60 and K'ed only 96 in 150IP. In other words, his minor league numbers are very unimpressive.

46 You're not looking at the trends you claim to be. He's been getting worse every year, with the exception of a few months in 2006. The point is the big picture. What you see is what you get, and it's only going to continue to get worse from here.

The big difference with Moyer? He moved to the NL! And he's sporting a nifty 75 ERA+ this year.

Since when is a 4.62 ERA "pretty solid" in a league where average is 4.47? Point is: He's not starting if you want your team to contend.

47 Sure, I post his his whole career, you pick and choose the numbers that support your argument. Nice sophistry.

48 He has not been getting worse every year! The statistics refute your claim. Also, if you want to omit two months from 2006, doing the samething in 2007 brings Moose right back up to the league average plateau in 2004 and 2005. You can't have it both ways.

You are also dead wrong on Moyer. In 2004 when he had an ERA+ of 87, Moyer was in Seattle, where he remained in 2005 (ERA+ of 98) and part of 2006 (ERA+ of 101 in 160IP).

How is league average solid (4.62 is probably an ERA+ of 98 or so)? Well, average kind of means solid to me.

You need to go back and look at all the contending teams in history, and you'll see they had at least one starter on par with Moose. Heck, the 2007 Yankees did contend (and make the playoffs) and they had the genuine article. That statement makes no sense.

As for Rasner, you posted his whol career, but ignored the context. The age of a pitcher when he is at various levels is tremendously relevant. I didn't pick and choose the numbers, I provided the context you conveniently continue to ignore.

49 We can go back and forth like this all day. The fact is, from 2003 to now, his k/9, bb/9, and h/9 have all gotten dramatically worse and with each year. That's a fact.

And now you want to selectively omit some months both not others? Okay, when if you take out the first two months of 2006, Moose's suckitude has been non-stop.

On Moyer: There's very little difference between those ERA+'s. Again, his peripherals were getting consistently worse until he found the fountain of youth in the NL. The fact is: There's more to evaluating a pitcher than ERA+. Your humility would be graced by realizing that.

Point is: Moose has been below average for 3.5 of the last four years - unless you start fudging the numbers and rounding up as you see fit.

Here's a better take from SG http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/is_moose_cooked

"Mike Mussina has thrown 318 pitches so far in 2008. 212 of them have been strikes, which on the surface seems decent. But here's the scary part. Of those 318 pitches, batters have only swung and missed at 11 pitches (5%). That's an average of under 3 per game, and it's going to make it very difficult for Mussina to have sustained success unless something changes."

50 No...I don't want to selectively omit months. I was responding to your desire to do it, and point out how silly the idea was.

Also, once again, you are plain wrong in stating that "from 2003 to now, his k/9, bb/9, and h/9 have all gotten dramatically worse and with each year." While H/9IP has definitely falled off significantly since 2003, the other two metrics have not.

Here are the facts:

1) BB per 9IP, 2003-2007: 1.7, 2.2, 2.4, 1.6, 2.1. As you can see, there isn't anything dramatic here. In fact, 2006 was better than 2003, and 2007 was better than 2004-2005.

2) K per 9IP, 2003-2007: 8.2, 7.2, 7.1, 7.8, 5.4. The drop last season was dramatic, but the long-term trend you are claiming is definitely not there.

Humility isn't necessary when arguing against someone refusing to use facts. The fact is there is no clear pattern that Mussina is in a reversable decline that will prevent him from being league average. What's more, history clearly shows us that many contending teams have had pitchers like Moose, or even worse.

So, you can either try to base your argument on actual facts, or keep making things up. The choice is yours.

51 Again, with the sophistry. You've conveniently underplayed out h/9.

sophism: a deliberately invalid argument displaying ingenuity in reasoning in the hope of deceiving someone

The fact is, Moose has been getting consistently worse over the last 3.5 of 4 years. The verdict isn't just in, he's already passed through of all of his appeals on death row. Next up? The lethal injection.

"The fact is there is no clear pattern that Mussina is in a reversable decline that will prevent him from being league average."

Anyone who agrees with this statement please speak up. Pretty please. I honestly can't believe it's being uttered in a forum like this that usually seems very knowledgeable. Perhaps Lohud is missing a commentator?

53 Everyone else tired of this a long time ago. For the record, I come closer to William's position than yours, and believe his arguments more rational and based on a more-sound understanding of statistics than yours. The only reason I'm even writing is to say that I certainly don't think william deserves your slander. I think his skin is think enough that he won't care though.

Silly me, I should have simply pointed to WHIP:

2003: 1.081
2004: 1.324
2005: 1.369
2006: 1.110
2007: 1.467

That tells the story much simpler than anything else, and especially ERA+. Combine that with K:BB -

2003: 4.87
2004: 3.29
2005: 3.03
2006: 4.90
2007: 2.56

Hmmm, an steady increase in the number of baserunners with a steady decrease in the number of K:BB, yeah that's "no clear pattern that Mussina is in a reversable decline". Right. Yup, statistics is all about reading as much as you can into outliers. Good work.

55 FWIW, you left out the second half of the declaration which is "...that will prevent him from being league average."