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Hot Seat
2008-02-19 05:41
by Alex Belth

Andy Pettitte spoke to the media yesterday in Tampa. He was flanked by Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi. Teammates, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera sat nearby in the audience. Here is Pettitte's prepared statement:

I just wanted to say, well, I'm happy to be back here and again looking forward to giving the Yankees every ounce of energy I have this season. I want to thank the New York Yankees for giving me a few extra days with my family. I think they realize this has taken a toll on my family, and other than my relationship with God, my family is the No. 1 priority in my life.

I want to apologize to the New York Yankees and to the Houston Astros organizations and to their fans and to all my teammates and to all of baseball fans for the embarrassment I have caused them. I also want to tell anyone that is an Andy Pettitte fan I am sorry, especially any kids that might look up to me. Since graduating from high school, I have spent my life working with young kids at my church and in my community. I never want a young person to do what I did.

Anyone that has followed my career knows that I have battled elbow problems the entire time. Again, like I said before, I never took this to get an edge on anyone. I did this to try to get off the DL and to do my job. And again, for that, I am sorry for the mistakes I've made.

I have been put in a situation that I think no one should ever be put. Being put in the middle of a situation between two men I have known for a long time has been a very difficult time for me over the last couple of months. I have never tried to take sides in Roger [Clemens] and [Brian McNamee's] situation, but I've only been honest.

Roger has been one my closest friends in baseball over the last nine years. He has taught me more about pitching than I ever could have imagined. Mac has pushed me in my workouts harder than anyone I've ever worked with. I have been friends with Roger and Mac for a long time and, hopefully, will continue to be friends after this.

As far as the situation with my dad, I am sorry for not telling the whole truth in my original statement after the Mitchell Report was released. I am human, just like anyone else, and people make mistakes. I never wanted to bring my dad into a situation like this. This was between me and him, and no one else. I testified about my dad in part because I felt in my heart I had to, but mainly because he urged me to tell the truth, even if it hurt him. Most of you know that my dad has had numerous health problems, especially with his heart, and he was just trying to do anything to help himself feel better. He is a private individual, not a professional athlete like myself, and his privacy should be respected.

I hope with the help from y'all that I can put all this behind me and continue to do what I've always tried to do -- that is to help bring the New York Yankees another world championship.

Most of the columnists I read this morning suggest that the drama is far from over for Pettitte.

Meanwhile, Rob Neyer had a post about Posada yesterday at ESPN. He writes, in part:

Is Posada the best "old" catcher ever? No. That title clearly belongs to Fisk. Best mid-30s catcher? I don't think I'm prepared to say that; it's a great battle between him and Howard. Which is appropriate because those two have a great deal in common. Both were Yankees. Both weren't worked particularly hard in their 20s; Posada because of Joe Girardi, Howard because of Yogi Berra.

How good was Elston Howard? In his Age 34 season (above) he was the American League's MVP; in his Age 35 season (ditto) he finished third in the voting. If he hadn't gotten that late start he might be in the Hall of Fame.

But you know what happened to Howard after he turned 36? He stopped hitting. Howard's OPS+'s from ages 32-35: 153, 113, 140, 128. Over those four seasons, his 133 OPS+ is No. 1 all time for catchers in that age range (minimum 500 games). And No. 2? Posada (130 OPS+), followed by Hall of Famers Hartnett (127), Berra (118) and Fisk (117).

Howard's OPS+'s from 36-39: 77, 98, 42, 92. That last number, while constituting an impressive rebound, 1) came in only 71 games, and 2) came in Howard's last season.

Will the same fate befall Posada? Almost certainly not. Howard's a sample size of exactly one, and certainly doesn't predict Posada's future. On the other hand, Fisk is essentially the only catcher who's remained a truly productive hitter into his late 30s. Who is Posada more likely to resemble, Fisk, or the many other good-hitting catchers in the game's long history?

The answer seems obvious.

More obviousness: Posada was incredibly lucky in 2007. Perhaps it goes without saying that when any player puts up numbers that are both historic and out of character with the rest of his career, he had a bit of luck on his side. It was more than a bit, though; when Posada put the ball into play he batted around .390, far higher than his career norms. This year he'll be back to normal, and should post numbers something like his outstanding performance from 2004 through 2006. But can he keep it going for more than another year or two? Historically speaking, it's terribly unlikely. And as great as he's been, one wonders if he'll really be worth $13 million per season from today through October of 2011.

I expected Posada and Alex Rodriguez to come back down to earth some this year. But they will still likely be All-Stars (though it'll be interesting to see how the third base voting goes now with Cabrera in the league), even if their numbers understandably fall off.

Comments (85)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-02-19 06:09:55
1.   The Mick 536
Cabrera could hit a ton, boosting the Tigers to an early and non-surmountable lead and still not budge Alex. First, I look forward to another monster year from A-Rod. Second,Cabrera cannot field big league style. Third, NY fans wouldn't tolerate it.

I loved Ellie. Sad what the Janks did to him. Played with dignity in Boston. Died young. Good point about how the light early years saved his career. Remember him playing the OF.

2008-02-19 06:33:52
2.   Sliced Bread
Who knows how much luck had to do with Posada's season?
The remarkable thing about watching Jorge rake last year: it didn't look to me like he was getting lucky, as Neyer, and statistical reasoning would suggest. I recall most of his hits were unplayable no doubters. Lots of line drives and hard hit groundballs up the middle. He really did have a freakishly MVP-worthy season.
I guess you could say staying healthy had a little something to do with luck, but I wouldn't classify how solidly locked-in he was as lucky. Know what I'm saying?
2008-02-19 06:44:00
3.   williamnyy23
1 What specifically did the Yankees do to Elston Howard?
2008-02-19 07:17:41
4.   Bruce Markusen
Sliced Bread, well said. I don't remember many bloops and bleeders for Posada either. He certainly didn't have a lot of leg hits, that's for damn sure.

William, I think The Mick is referring to the Yankees' decision not to give Howard the managerial job in the mid-1970s, despite the fact that many players wanted him to be promoted. Howard was very well liked and respected by Yankees players and deserved a chance at managing.

2008-02-19 07:31:20
5.   williamnyy23
4 Fair enough, but I don't think that qualifies as something "they did" to him, especially when you consider they made him the first African American coach in the American League.

I thought he might have been referring to the trade, but I've read at least one account of the Yankees sending Howard to Boston as being a reward (a chance to compete in one more pennant race), not a punishment.

2008-02-19 07:32:50
6.   williamnyy23
2 Actually, I can recall a couple of instances of Kenny Singleton saying "when you're going good, you're going good" after a dink and dunk. I wouldn't say those hits were common, but enough standout that an element of luck might have been in play (which isn't a bad thing).
2008-02-19 08:15:06
7.   Shaun P
2 I share your thoughts, but from the statistical perspective, it doesn't matter if it was bloops and bleeders, or solid line drives and grounders - a .390ish BABIP is a huge outlier for Jorge. It isn't likely to be sustainable.

1 4 5 I was thinking it was more that Howard didn't get the chance to play fulltime when he was clearly ready for it - just like Jorge. He signed in 1950, but didn't debut until 1955, and didn't top 350 MLB PAs until 1957. Maybe he doesn't have the same career if he got started in 1952 or '53. But isn't it something of accepted fact that the Yankees could have, and should have, integrated sooner?

2008-02-19 08:30:16
8.   williamnyy23
7 The Yankees clearly should have and could have integrated sooner, but I am not sure a reluctance to have a black man on the team was entirely behind Howard's late start. For one thing, the Yankees already had a stacked team (they did win the WS from 1950-1953). Also, the Yankees were in the process of converting Howard, who had been an outfielder in the Negro Leagues, to a catcher. As with Posada, that project alone probably required an extra year or so of seasoning. Finally, Howard had stints in the military during the 1951 and 1952 seasons, which also presumably set him back.
2008-02-19 08:32:03
9.   Sliced Bread
On Howard's wikipedia page there's a vague reference to some controversy about how the Yanks handled his death.

-----------------------
Howard died of a heart ailment at age 51 in New York City and was interred at George Washington Memorial Park in Paramus, New Jersey. Broadcaster Red Barber reacted by saying, "The Yankees lost more class on the weekend than George Steinbrenner could buy in 10 years."
-----------------------------

It's unclear to me exactly what Barber was referring to but according to wikipedia, George Washington Memorial Park was established in 1939 as a "whites only" cemetery.

Did Barber object to Howard being laid to rest here? What did the Yankees do to "lose class?" Anybody know what this was about?

2008-02-19 08:34:25
10.   wsporter
Jorge's career .319 BAbip indicates he should regress to career norms and age indicates he should be in or beginning a decline. Who knows though, Jorge is really in uncharted territory where older catchers are concerned. I don't think it's fair to expect a repeat of '07 but barring injury I don't expect him to regress to Rick Cerone country in one year either.
2008-02-19 08:38:26
11.   williamnyy23
9 I have a feeling Barber was just using the occasion of Howard's death to take a swipe at George, who by 1980 had gained his share of detractors.
2008-02-19 08:44:53
12.   williamnyy23
9 I guess this is another example on why Wikipedia isn't the most reliable source, but the quote above should be attributed to Red Smith instead of Red Barber. "THE Yankees' organization lost more class on the weekend than George Steinbrenner could buy in 10 years" was the lead to Smith's 12/15/80 article for the New York Times.
2008-02-19 08:46:52
13.   Shaun P
10 MFD, I would gladly take another 3-4 years of Posada churning out seasons like he did in '04, '05, or '06.

8 Yeah, I guess. I don't know. Its hard to make any judgments without knowing more about those mid-50s teams than b-r.com can tell me. I think we should stop speculating and just wait for The Mick to tell us what he meant. =)

2008-02-19 08:47:46
14.   wsporter
9 I remember that Slice. I believe that was purely a shot at George. I think what Red was doing was equating Ellie's death with "loss' in a metaphoracal and idiomatice sense in that his death caused the Yankees a loss; I don't think it had anything to do with the place in internment. The allusion to Steinbrenner was part of the usual shot at his reputation for buying every free agent that wasn't nailed down and generally being a blustering blowhard and a bully.

Red Barber was a segregationist and a racist in his early days but became a staunch supporter of civil rights and I believe lived with a good deal of guilt about the beliefs he held in his younger and uninformed days. There is a good deal written about his support of Jackie Robinson for example and how he managed to see the light once he got to know him. He talked about it some in his days at NPR with Bob Edwards. Edwards wrote a pretty good book on Barber that is worth the read.

2008-02-19 08:48:31
15.   JL25and3
9 First off, it wasn't Red Barber, it was Red Smith (http://tinyurl.com/27b4dm, for Times subscribers).

The reference wasn't to anything the Yankees did. He was simply saying that the Yankees had lost the class that Howard brought to the organization.

Here's his lede: "The Yankees' organization lost more class on the weekend than George Steinbrenner could buy in 10 years. Elston Howard, former catcher, outfielder, first baseman, coach and lately administrative assistant to Steinbrenner, died in Columbia Presbyterian Medical Center."

And his closing paragraphs: "Whether he ever could have been manager for George Steinbrenner is something else again. It has yet to be shown that anyone can manage a team for Steinbrenner for more than a short time. Yet it is conceivable that some of Elston Howard's class might have rubbed off on the owner of the Yankees.

"That possibility makes his death a greater loss than ever. He was a loyal friend, a polished professional in his job, a cool judge of whisky and a man of simple honesty. The world will be poorer without him, the Yankees immeasurably poorer."

Smith could write.

2008-02-19 08:50:27
16.   wsporter
12 I remember the quote, I thought it was Red Barber. In fact I can almost hear him saying it. Maybe he was repeating it?

13 Amen brother, lets hope.

2008-02-19 08:55:54
17.   weeping for brunnhilde
How is that fucking luck?

Posada was incredibly lucky in 2007. Perhaps it goes without saying that when any player puts up numbers that are both historic and out of character with the rest of his career, he had a bit of luck on his side. It was more than a bit, though; when Posada put the ball into play he batted around .390, far higher than his career norms.

Ok, I'm sorry, this is where statistician-types exasperate me.

Did you all watch the same Jorgie all year that I did? The one who actually changed his swing, went with the pitch and used the middle of the field?

The man changed his approach to batting (apparent to anyone with eyes to see) and that's somehow about luck?

Luck was maybe staying healthy, but in a high average on balls put into play? Why doesn't that mean that a higher percentage of those balls were well-struck than in previous years?

2008-02-19 08:57:12
18.   weeping for brunnhilde
2 Thank you, sliced.
2008-02-19 09:09:27
19.   Chyll Will
8 My uncle would endorse William's point-of-view about the Yanks of the early fifties without Howard (heck, they were all right without him) and the other points make complete sense. Uncle Woodrow was a Dodgers fan when they were in Brooklyn (despite living in the Bronx within earshot of Yankee Stadium), mainly because they integrated before anyone else did, and became an original Mets fan when they came into being.

Of the Yanks, he said that at the time there was only one guy among his group who was a Yankee fan, and the others would tease this guy because of the fact that the Yanks didn't have any black players.

However, his clever retort: "Well, the Yanks don't NEED 'em like you do."

2008-02-19 09:09:47
20.   williamnyy23
17 Luck, both good and bad, is definitely a factor in performance. I don't think anyone is saying that Posada's great season was entirely due to luck, but to deny that it played some element is equally drastic. From personal memory, I do recall Jorge getting what seemed like more than his fair share of lucky hits. That doesn't mean he wouldn't have had an excellent season without those lucky hits, but it does partly explain why he had such a late career spike (along with all those other reasons you noted). What's more, luck isn't a bad thing. In fact, it could be argued that luck is the residue of talent.
2008-02-19 09:15:05
21.   Rob Middletown CT
Weeping:

It was almost certainly luck because his BABIP was 71 points over his career rate. I did watch Jorge all year, and I didn't see any change in his approach at the plate. Jorge himself, when asked, said he was doing the same things he'd always done (I'll see if I can find the quote). Even he knew that there was luck involved.

That doesn't mean there was no skill. There is tremendous skill at work (career .319 BABIP for a slow-footed catcher? Phenomenal. Great OBP. Power...).

I think there has been work done on correlations between line drive rate and BABIP, showing that not all high BABIP is lucky. But .390? Come on now.

2008-02-19 09:16:11
22.   weeping for brunnhilde
20 Fair enough, I'll accept the role of luck in success, of course, but Neyer's implication, by omission, is that luck was a major explanation for Jorgie's season. For Neyer to not even talk about baseball (i.e., the mechanics and techniques employed to hit a baseball) is egregious.

I understand he didn't watch day in and day out, but that's kind of my point--a pile of numbers is no substitute for watching baseball, day in, day out.

2008-02-19 09:17:08
23.   weeping for brunnhilde
21 I just don't get how a conversation about hitting can take place with no reference to hitting, is my point.

Jorgie shortened his fucking swing, why is that not even worthy of comment?

2008-02-19 09:18:15
24.   Rob Middletown CT
http://www.observer.com/2007/little-respect-please-jorge-posada

Of course, the writer tries to claim it's not luck. But look at what Jorge himself said.

"I'll tell you the truth—I don't know why it's been such a good year," he said, smiling, as he dressed in front of his locker for Monday's game against Toronto. "At the plate, I haven't been even a little bit different."

"I think I've been a little lucky this year, no question,"

2008-02-19 09:19:14
25.   horace-clarke-era
With Shaun on this (and others) ... Jorge going beyond the pale at that age is NOT something you ever count on again ... unless you are his agent and negotiating from a C position of ridiculous strength with a Yankee team that had A Rod leaving at the time!

But if he gives anything like his 2004-06 numbers for 3 years anyone who knows the game surely has to be happy.

I'm intrigued by the luck analysis, the .390 on balls in play etc. ... I suppose I'd have expected that over a season it levels more smoothly, that luck is a month or two (along with streaks, which CAN be luck).

Opera-lover, it would be awfully nice if you're right, that it was simply confidence, new swing (walk year?). If it happens again everyone here will cheer like mad, but it isn't just sabr-geeks who attach value to career norms and the rarity of mid-30s redefinitions.

2008-02-19 09:20:14
26.   weeping for brunnhilde
21 I'm not saying luck has no role, Rob. I am saying that, according to my eyes, Jorgie most certainly did have a shorter swing with fewer holes in it than in previous years.

But let's say I'm absolutely wrong about that, that it's my word against yours--why isn't that the conversation?

Why can't someone like Neyer talk about a guy's swing, his mechanics, his approach?

2008-02-19 09:23:57
27.   weeping for brunnhilde
I mean, what does Jorgie usually hit, about .270-.280, right? He tends to trail off as the season progresses.

Of course the difference was phenomenal, but my point is, luck only explains so much, and by no means the most interesting part of why his season was so strong.

It's especially ironic that stathead types try to quantify and measure everything, but then, when push comes to shove, they throw up their hands and invoke luck rather than talking about baseball?

Kind of amusing, no?

2008-02-19 09:27:18
28.   Rob Middletown CT
Ok, we disagree on his swing. I watched pretty much every Yankee game in 2007, and I saw the exact same Jorge Posada I've always seen. No change at all was evident to me. His own words back that up. I'm glad Jorge didn't change his swing: it's a great swing. I'll miss it dearly when it's gone.

As for Neyer... probably because Neyer isn't particularly qualified to discuss a hitter's mechanics (neither are we, of course, but we don't get paid to post on the Banter). He could, however, solicit quotes from scouts and include their comments in his articles.

2008-02-19 09:29:14
29.   Sliced Bread
Red Barber, Red Smith, red herring.

anyway, thanks for the Barber insights, wsporter.

[26 - 27] For what it's worth, weeping, I take more from your analysis of Posada than Neyer's.

2008-02-19 09:29:26
30.   Chyll Will
17 Ok, I'm sorry, this is where statistician-types exasperate me.

Hah! You know I'm fanatical about cartoons, whether age-appropriate or not, but this recent exchange reminded me of Banter in it's purest form:

Spongebob: (jumps at Patrick 3 times) C'mon Patrick, let's do something fun.

Patrick: Oh, you want to run some statistics or observe phenomenon and render hypothesis of sand phenomenon?

Spongebob: I was thinking more like jumping rope, 1-legged races, or duck-duck-hermit crab. (jumps into a hermit-crab shell)

Patrick: Doesn't feel like fun.

Spongebob: How about some jokes? (Patrick sighs) What's the difference between a guitar and a jellyfish?

Patrick: You can't strum a jellyfish.

Spongebob: Yes! (laughs. Patrick grabs a jellyfish and strums its tentacles)

Patrick: Oh my, look at the time. I really must be going. (walks off)

That's about right I imagine >;)

2008-02-19 09:30:39
31.   The Mick 536
While I do not have citations at the ready, here are my reasons for saying that they didn't treat him well.

He has had his number retired for sure and his family are honored guests at the stadium, but he should be thought about on a level just below 42.

The Yankees under Weiss passed on Vic Power, among others, because they had swagger. I believe that Ellie's gentlemanly qualities were taken advantage of and that he toiled as a utility man under Casey because of his color, not his talent.

At some point, either in 1956 or 1955, Ellie went into the hospital for some sort of nervous disorder. Never got the story about who put pressure on him in the dugout. Hank Bauer and Yogi were supposedly big supporters, but someone, maybe just Casey and Weiss, made his skin erupt.
Houk finally let him play and that is when he became an all-star. Yanks promised him he could finish his career in pinstripes. I remember that he was devastated when they traded him to the Sox. They may have claimed they were giving him one last chance to win another ring, but then why did he almost retire rather than gleefully going?

The manager thing really still miffs me the most. He was named on the short lists. The Yankees, as well as many other teams, could have broken the color line by making him the skipper. The team loved him. The fans loved him. White ownership didn't.

Finally, the embarassment at the time of his untimely death, one hastened by the racism he faced, comes from some financial finagling by ownership that may have effected the family's ability to cover his medical bills. I am, as Casey would say, looking it up.

2008-02-19 09:32:41
32.   RIYank
Does every player who shortens his swing add 60 points to his batting average?
Do players in general add a bunch of OPS when they shorten their swings?

I don't know. I doubt it. Unless swing-shortening really does tend to improve hitting, I am reluctant (to say the least) to attribute Posada's improvement to a new swing.

Only speaking for myself, of course.

2008-02-19 09:38:38
33.   weeping for brunnhilde
28 Why aren't we qualified to discuss a hitter's mechanics?

Speaking for myself, I'm not a professional hitting coach, but I have been coached in how to swing a baseball bat, both in little league and through listening to professionals on training videos, starting when I was young and that show--"The Baseball Bunch," was it?--came on weekly and major leaguers taught kids fundamentals.

I do have some idea of how to hit a baseball, as should anyone who watches baseball with any kind of attention.

Just because we disagree about Jorgie's swing, both of us having watched him day in, day out, doesn't mean we're therefore not fit to discuss it.

2008-02-19 09:40:11
34.   weeping for brunnhilde
32 Dave Winfield did in 1984.
2008-02-19 09:43:19
35.   weeping for brunnhilde
30 :)
2008-02-19 09:47:32
36.   Chyll Will