Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
What? No! Not that. Sorry.
Lefty = Andy Pettitte.
Santana = Nationals' righty reliever Jonathan Santana Albaladejo.
Pitching Prospect = Tyler Clippard, who went to D.C. for Albaladejo.
Now that we've cleared that up, for all I know there could be some other news by the time you're reading this but as of 2:30am EST, when I'm writing it, the big news is that the Yankees have added the first piece to their bullpen by trading faded pitching prospect Clippard to the Nationals for Albaladejo.
It's a solid trade. The Yankees have a full rotation worth of pitching prospects who both ranked ahead of Clippard and had passed or were about to pass him on the organizational ladder, including Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Allan Horne, and Jeffrey Marquez, not to mention 27-year-old Chien-Ming Wang, who's a back-to-back 19-game winner. With Horne and Marquez due to start the 2008 season in Triple-A and the other three ticketed for the major league rotation, there's simply no room for a B-grade starting pitching prospect such as Clippard in the upper levels of the organization.
That wasn't the case a year ago, as Clippard was considered the runner-up to Phil Hughes in the Yankees' pitching-prospect hierarchy. He fell behind in part because of the outstanding performances of Chamberlain, Kennedy, Horne, and Marquez, but also because of his own failings in 2007. Called up amid the flurry of debuting rookie starters the Yanks were forced to employ in the first half of the year, Clippard struggled in five of his six major league starts, and returned the minors without the pinpoint control that had fueled his prospect status to begin with. Clippard was actually bounced all the way down to Double-A and posted a 5.40 ERA there. Though he's still just 22, that took a considerable amount of shine off his status.
Further reducing Clippard's value to the team was the fact that his lack of a dominant out-pitch (he survives on a 90-mph fastball, some slop, and that ability to deceive hitters and locate his pitches) makes him a poor candidate for conversion to high-leverage relief. Thus, the Yankees flipped him for someone already excelling in that role, Nationals reliever Jonathan Albaladejo, who shot from Double-A to the majors last year, posting a 1.41 ERA in 38 1/3 innings between Triple-A Columbus and the majors.
A tall, 25-year-old, Puerto Rican righty, Albaladejo was drafted by the Pirates in 2001 and began his professional career as a starting pitcher in the Pittsburgh organization. He was converted to relief in 2005, finally cracked Double-A in 2006 (a season in which the presence of 3 games at Rookie league suggest an injury rehab, though I've been unable to find evidence of the actual injury), then signed with the Nationals as a six-year minor league free agent and promptly pitched his way not only to the majors, but to the New York Yankees.
Albaladejo throws in the mid-90s and appears to have tremendous control, having walked just 1.73 men per nine innings in his minor league career and just two men in his 14 1/3 major league frames. His strike out rate isn't quite as impressive, but in combination with the walks it yields a 4.27 K/BB over more than 500 minor league innings, which is remarkable. Albaladejo has also allowed less than a hit an inning in his pro career and doesn't seem to have much of an issue with home runs either (though he was somewhat protected by RFK Stadium last year).
Of course, the really big news out yesterday was Andy Pettitte's announcement that he's decided to return to the team. With Pettitte having made his announcement, the Yankees will draw up a $16-million contract for him equivalent to the player option he declined in October, and the Yankees will have a six-man rotation that, if they're smart about it, they'll use exactly as such during the season in order to suppress the innings totals of the three rookies and ease the strain on the aging elbows of Pettitte and Mussina (peak-age Wang can take his turn every five days, thus moving around in the rotation like Christmas on the calendar from year-to-year).
I find it difficult to believe that it was a coincidence that Pettitte's announcement came less than 24 hours before Hank Steinbrenner's deadline on the Johan Santana (there, I said it) trade talks. With Pettitte back in the fold, the Yankees were able to stand all the more firm in their refusal to include more than one of the top pitching prospects mentioned above in the deal. As of 1:57am EST, the latest from SI.com's Jon Heyman, who has been Jonny on the Spot on the big Yankee news thus far this postseason was this:
The Twins and Yankees reached what one person called an "impasse" shortly before midnight CST. The Twins were asking that the Yankees include either pitcher Ian Kennedy or a tandem of pitching prospect Alan Horne and outfield prospect Austin Jackson in their package with pitcher Phil Hughes and outfielder Melky Cabrera.
From ESPN.com's Jayson Stark at 1:09 the news was similar:
Even though the Yankees and Twins were still talking about different combinations as the night grew later and later, there was no indication that they were any closer to a deal for Santana than they were four days ago. In fact, if anything, the momentum seemed to be in the opposite direction. Officials from other clubs said several of the Yankees' baseball personnel at the meetings had begun openly questioning whether they even wanted to make this trade if the Twins said yes. "The more this goes on," said one AL executive, "the less they want to do it.
And our man on the scene Peter Abraham made it unanimous at 2:18:
The Johan Santana trade seems colder than hotter at this point. The Twins have acknowledged they're not getting Ian Kennedy. But they're holding out for better than what the Yankees are offering for the third player.Why the Yankees need to have an answer on this now is a mystery. But if Hank Steinbrenner sticks to his deadline, it looks like it's not getting done.
Consider the fact that the sticking point was not the inclusion of Hughes, which the Yankees were willing to do, but the tertiary player in the deal, I'll be happy to see this one wither on the vine. Brian Cashman can takes his righty reliever and head home for all I care. Just as long as the Red Sox don't slip in when he's not looking.
In other news: The Yankees have finalized the deals for catchers Jorge Posada and Jose Molina and have thus designated Andy Phillips for assignment to clear space on the 40-man roster. Same old, same old with Andy. He's 30, hasn't brought his bat to the majors yet, and at this point is unlikely to. He may be undesirable enough to slip back to the Scranton Yankees as he did at the end of spring training. If not, with Wilson Betemit and Shelley Duncan in the house and on the bench, all that will be missed about Phillips are his boyish looks and winning personality.
Good luck, Ty Clip - he could have a good career in the current NL.
it looks like the sox are indeed slipping back in. i'm really curious as to what they'll have to give up.
if the yankees don't get santana, there are other, admittedly lesser options out there.
nobody panic. (i'm looking at you, hank.)
I really didn't think the Sox were serious about Santana, though. I'm still wondering if they're just messing with us.
With Pettitte back, well, I'm an optimist about next year. Also, way to go on that trade with the Nationals. Hopefully Clippard will help them continue their Mets-playoff-hopes-destroying reign.
UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 2:04am: Tim Brown checks in. He confirms the Twins are checking Lester's medical records. He says the current deal on the table is Lester, Crisp, Masterson, and a minor leaguer. A Red Sox official was said to be "cautiously optimistic." If the current scenario is accurate, perhaps the Twins have finally bent on their demand for both Lester and Ellsbury.
the yankees had better not up their offer. if the twins don't want what they're offering now, then walk away whistling. let the sox have the guy.
I don't believe the Yankees are going to stick to the supposed deadline, and I suspect the Twins aren't worried about it, either.
But the problem is the Red Sox are going to not only slip in, but they are going to attain Santana for prospects that aren't really of value to them (especially if Lester is th centerpiece). I am all for being married to young talent, but if Boston obtains Santana, the Yankees have to be prepared to be second class citizens in the AL East for the near future. As long as they can accept and are prepared for that possibility, then I can't kill Cashman for holding on to the youth.
Cashman said Kyle Farnsworth would take over for Chamberlain as the Yankees' eighth-inning setup man, and the depth of the Yankees' farm system would help in potential deals.
15 bubba crosby is our CF, too. i don't buy that for a second.
19 i see your point, but cashman also said that a few other teams had been asking about farnsworth. if even one team is asking, and let's all hope they are, it would be beneficial to try to generate demand, even, or especially, if none exists. i have to tell myself that is what is happening. otherwise i probably would run into traffic.
Also, what makes the Yankees cost seem to much is the inclusion of Hughes. Hughes clearly has the most upside of all the players being discussed, so that makes it seem as if the Yankees offer is so much better. Of course, maybe the Twins prefer quantity over quality. The inclusion of Lowerie and Masterson, for example, would help restock a very depleted system.
If that's the case, I think you have to seriously downgrade your expectations for 2008. Having three rookies in the rotation is going to take its toll. Also, with innings caps, it pretty much ensures that Wang and Pettitte will be anschoring the post season again. Now, that might work better this time, but if they are facing Sabathia/Carmona and Beckett/Santana, as well as a revamped Angels team, well, I am not so sure I like their chances.
The worst thing for the Yankees would be to let the Sox get Johan and then deal Hughes for Haren.
i agree. hughes must stay. i think that many in these parts agree with that.
24 i'd imagine the sox would have to pay at least part of his salary. with renteria off their books this coming season, they probably figure that they can afford it. the jerks.
This said, I continue to believe this is posturing and Santana will be a Yankee, coming at the not-insignificant sum of Hughes/Melky/AJax. What can you say? Either way, we lose.
With Andy back Yanks should re work the deal. IPK + Melky (why does anyone want to hold on to him except that maybe Cano's "feelings" might be hurt when Melky's traded) + Jackson + Ohlendorf (if they want our version of Cocco give them Farnsworthless + cash instead).
Hughes should stay. If we take a hit in 2008 with Joba/Phil/IPK so be it. The Yanks should invest wisely with these 3; they could be their version of the Orioles front 3 of the early 70's. Not a bad deal at all.
Also, I am not sure why you'd assume the Yankees are in a lose/lose situation. If Johan is really on his way to being an all-timer, then his next five seasons would make whomever acquires him a very big winner.
I maintain this is between Santana and the Yanks.
If Johan wants to make the most money possible, for the highest number of years, on baseball's greatest stage, and maybe win a championship along the way, he's a Yankee-in-waiting.
so they WERE watching!
I'm sorry.
I'm hoping he decides to stay in Minnesota until he's a free agent.
Mind you, what this reliever did was in the JV league. We shall see if it translates (Viscaino, anyone?).
2. I'm pleased that the Hughes+ for Santana deal appears to have fallen apart. However, it would seem that the Red Sox may get him for what is in my opinion a lesser group of prospects, which is doubly annoying. Mostly, I'm worried that the Sox get Santana and Hank freaks out and orders something really stupid.
I'm not happy about the prospect of facing a team that will run out Santana, Beckett, DiceK, Shilling and Bucholtz, believe me. But if the price of preventing that is trading Hughes + Kennedy + Melky or Hughes + Melky + Horne + Jackson... I still say no.
As for the comparison between Henry and Pohlad, well, one cares about winning and the other only cares about money.
there is also rumblings that if the angels can't get miguel cabrera - they will get in on the santana talks.
and, the twins asking for lester's medical records could be part of the ploy to get the yankees back in.
it seems like in any of the proposed deals, boston is being asked to give up fewer pieces that are important to their future though. which sucks because teams are always trying to extract more from the yanks - but it really does reinforce having a surplus of talent in the farm
49 i agree with that statement, but santana would probably get more money as a free agent than just sigining an extension as part of a trade - so i guess it depends if he wants to take the risk.
But if you're a two time Cy Young winner in your prime, who has expressed your desire to play in NY, you're not losing sleep over your ligaments (as you suggest). And you are certainly not losing sight of your dream to play in New York, and the dollars and years that await you there.
I see no reason why Santana wouldn't refuse a trade to Boston if he was assured that a greater payday awaits him in the big city.
meh.
santana, on the other hand, 7 innings, just 4 hits and 2 runs. (2.57 ERA)
small samples, i know.
here's a funny distraction from the sanatana talks that was burried in the 'espn winter meetings blog' -
"But [David] Eckstein might have missed an opportunity when he failed to jump on a four year offer from the Mets."
Lester, Crisp, Ellsbury, and Lowrie?
For a player who has said he wants to play here, it would seem foolish to accept anything less.
Yes, players are always concerned about their health, but a world class athlete like Santana is not losing sleep over blowing a ligament while he waits a few months for the ultimate payday.
65 santana/beckett would make it less of a crap shoot.
who knows what is going on behind the scenes, but it seems like the twins keep trying to get the yanks to include ipk, but are not trying to make the red sox include both lester and ellsbury. but, if the twins can get both lester and ellsbury, they are most likely taking that package.
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I do think the Twins would go for that. Howver, in 2010, if all goes well, those 5 guys are ALL projected to be starters.
IPK and Horne (right now) are our #3 and #4 SP prospects. We have 1 (maybe 2) years of Abreu and 2 years of Mats and JD.
So 2010 projects to be: Wang, Hughes, Joba, IPK, Horne and a vet. Our OF might be Melky, AJax and Tabata. I don't think this will necessarily happen, as we might trade any of these pieces for upgrades. But they are our foundation, and 'worst case' scenario.
I think the Boras advice would surely be to play out the year and enjoy the bidding frenzy next year, though. Players could do worse than to ask themselves, WWSBD?
67 That's the biggest package yet. Lester with Jacoby and Cocoa, along with a vg lower tier prospect? That has to be tempting.
http://tinyurl.com/29rswj
haren, anyone?
I understand that they aren't so eager to deal him, but Bedard seems to me more likely to be the next Santana than Haren is.
The Yanks' offers are all about "potential" outside of Melky, and Melky is just an average CF that happens to be cheap.
If so, the Yanks really have to just stand pat with Hughes. Trading Hughes ++ for a Bedard or Haren could be a disaster.
Yikes...it seems as if the Yankees are really being outmaneuvered here...
Though I have to say, if Johan couldn't be had with a package of say 3 or 4 of Melky, Horne, IPK, and AJax or Tabata, then the Yanks are just not a great partner for the Twins.
If the Sox trade away all those prospects and then pay Santana and Andruw, they become a great team for 2008, maybe 2009, but they've sold off their future. I can't believe that's the strategy. They're a terrific team now. Theo looks over to Foxboro and sees that once you're a great team, you start looking years down the road -- that's how you build a dynasty.
2008 is not the last year of MLB. We have a very nice group of MLB youth and a ton of quality trading chips.
However, I believe the Twins will get their best deal from the Sox (which won't be that great) and then come to the Yanks and give them a chance to top it with a Highes list. I believe the Yanks will get last shot.
75 2010? If you have found a formula that an project 3 seasons into the future, please share it!!
77 The same article, which really isn't definitive, states that the price for Haren would at least be the same as for Johan. As Haren isn't in Johan's stratosphere, that would be the height of foolishness.
79 Lester is far from proven...if anything, he comes with more questions than Hughes because of his health. I think Hughes is the closest thing to a sure thing if there was one.
80 I love the kids too...but I also realize the baseball junk pile is littered with once promising kids. I understand your preference to sign Santana as a FA, but every indication suggests that will not be possible. If tonight, the Sox acquire and sign Johan to a long-term deal, what will be your opinion then?
75 2010? If you have found a formula that an project 3 seasons into the future, please share it!!
77 The same article, which really isn't definitive, states that the price for Haren would at least be the same as for Johan. As Haren isn't in Johan's stratosphere, that would be the height of foolishness.
79 Lester is far from proven...if anything, he comes with more questions than Hughes because of his health. I think Hughes is the closest thing to a sure thing if there was one.
80 I love the kids too...but I also realize the baseball junk pile is littered with once promising kids. I understand your preference to sign Santana as a FA, but every indication suggests that will not be possible. If tonight, the Sox acquire and sign Johan to a long-term deal, what will be your opinion then?
Hell, by the time we're ready to compete with the Red Sox again Hughes, IPK and Joba will be ready for new contracts.
Welcome to the 1980s all over again.
God, I wish Steinbrenner would sell the team so we didn't have to put up with his maniac son. As long as Hank is in charge, we are dead.
Even manager Ron Gardenhire commented on it. "I hate to say it, but he loves it here," Gardenhire said. "He loves the big stage, the big stadium."
"He loves New York," Hunter said. "He'll be great here."
And I really can't believe there are Yankee fans who'd rather lose with kids than win with the best players in the world. Yeah, I love Hughes. You know what I love more? Winning.
If he wants to win championships, Boston - with Santana - is a much better bet than coming to NY.
And as for the biggest stage, well, that's part of the catechism of Yankee arrogance - and if the Red Sox get Santana, we're going to have to get used to the idea of abandoning that. The Red Sox don't exactly hurt for national media coverage as it is. A couple more championships for the Sox - and a couple of also-ran seasons for the Yankees - and we'll see what looks like the biggest stage.
http://tinyurl.com/2vl83k
66 's point is important, except that it's not just the last ten years. Hughes might turn into Santana, the top three might turn into the early-70's Orioles. Or Hughes could become Ben Sheets, Ben McDonald, or Todd Van Poppell; and the top three could become the A's Four Aces.
(they'll win it, but they aren't guaranteed it.)
As I argued with Jim Dean (RIP) last year, Cashman is not done and will not be done in April. Cash favors mid/late season deals, after he has assessed our needs at the moment.
The truth is many here ARE comming from a place of emotion. We DO want to take a chance with 'our own'. With our offense, farm and money we are always a contender.
I believe most GMs in baseball, including the Sox, know that player development is the way to sustained success.
Whether Cashman is done or not wont matter, because unless he can pry Brandon Webb away, there probably isn't another pitcher available who is as good as Johan. Also, if you think the likes of Haren and Bedard will be cheap, guess again.
Finally, there is nothing wrong with approaching this issue with emotion, but you have to realize that emotion often gets in the way of sound decisions. It's nice to want to win with your "own", but the point, after all, is to just win.
As for everyone knowing development is the way to sustained success, well, when was the last world champ to be dominated by home grown talent (certainly not Boston's last two champs). The key to success is accumulating the best talent. Besides, even if the Yankees make this deal, they'd still have a strong farm system as well as young major leagues like Cano and Joba in the majors.
More like 8/$180 mill or more with bonuses, which is well worth waiting a few months for.
This isn't a one year rental...it's a five year deal with the games best pitcher. If we are all lucky, Hughes might be almost as good as Santana over this stretch.
Regardless of how many championships the Red Sox win, Boston is not going to be a bigger stage than NY.
If we don't get Santana, we still have a very talented youth core (Wang, Cano, Hughes, Joba, IPK and sorta Melky), TONS of money and lots of high end pitching prospects. Considering our offense, regardless of what Boston does, I still think we are in good shape.
We may not have the best team on paper, as we did in many of the 2000-2007 years, but we are not quite doomed either.
I can't believe no one has answered this question yet. Two names we all know:
Ron Guidry, 1st full season, 1977, age 26
Chien-Ming Wang, 1st full season, 2006, age 26
I'm sure there are others. The reason it makes Horne so valuable, BTW, is he's past the "pitcher injury nexus" of 21-24. He already was hurt (TJ in college IIRC), and has clearly come all the way back. Thus, the odds of him suffering another significant elbow injury are greatly reduced.
AND - Horne pitched 153.3 innings at AA last year. That means, by the "rule of 30", he could pitch 183.3 innings next year, even in the bigs, and then 213.3 in 2009 and beyond. Knowing you can use a guy for that many innings without worrying about injury is incredibly valuable.
1) Santana-Beckett-DiceK-Schilling-Buchholz is scary good, and the Yankees will struggle to compete.
2) 108 I'm going to remind you that you said we only need an "above average" pitching staff the next time the Yanks are bounced in the first round of the playoffs and you start screaming about pitching, like you did this year.
3) Don't count on Dan Haren. Not only did Beane start by asking for Hughes AND Joba... but the Tigers are reportedly willing to offer Andrew Miller AND Cameron Maybin. Nothing the Yankees have is going to compete with that.
122 Very true, but in terms of endorsement potential, New York is a much better place. In New England, you already have Brady, and the Patriots in general, and Big Papi, and the Sox in general, plastered over everything - and now the Celtics and their "Big 3" too!
In NY, there's Jeter, A-Rod, the Yanks in general (?) and Wright (I guess?), but no one of any note on the football or basketball teams, and its a significantly bigger market.
In any case, I don't think this is really pertinent to the discussion; I'm just tired of seeing Brady, the Pats, Big Papi, the Sox, and the Celtics everywhere I turn.
With Beckett and Santana at the top of their rotation, the Red Sox will be the best team on paper in 2008, and will be especially well positioned for October success. The Yankees will have a roster capable of 93 wins (give or take 5 with luck or lack of same). That's good enough to probably make the playoffs, and from that point they can get lucky. For 2009-2011, I like the Yankees. If Hughes/Joba/IPK turn out to be Hudson/Mulder/Zito or Maddox/Smoltz/Glavine, this can be a truly great team.
If Horne is really a bonafide starting prospect, shouldn't that make IPK more expendable? It's great that the Yankees have so many good young arms, but are they all going to pan out?
Maybe so, but that's why they play the games. Someone wake me up when Boston actually has Santana traded for and signed. In the meantime, all this worrying over how dominating the Red Sox might be is of no concern to me.
FWIW, Albaladejo's home-road splits in 2007:
Home: 7 IP, 1.29 ERA, .136/.200/.182 against
Away: 7.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, .160/.192/.320 against
I really don't see what he offers over Chris Britton or Ross Ohlendorf, except, possibly, slightly more control. But the Yankees did get a Santana, right? ;-)
William,
Ok. What, exactly, is the package you think the Yankees should give up to get Johan?
Of course, the best omen for Albaladejo is he was released by the Pirates. That means he HAS TO be good.
If that's all it takes for the Sox to land Santana, color me surprised...
William, look how Cashman/Yankees has been playing the game for the last 3 years. Very few BFOG aquisitions, keeping and promoting kids, building the farm big time.
If they started doing this in 2000, we would not be 'behind' Boston now. You may be right about THIS deal, but the Yankees need to continue their current philosophy.
If the kids are a bust, or only average, well... I guess we will have learned a painful lesson. I'm just saying I think we need to see how well we develop, promote and use our own.
And while Pitching may be the most important element is baseball, there are still MANY impact players that will make the team better. I am not counting on CC, or Bedard, or MCab, or anyone else. I'm counting on Cashman always willing to spend and make good deals to improve the team with any one of a number of quality players we might ge in the next year or 2.
Again, I don't know how much value to out into WinShares, but ARod and MCab both were 50% better then Santana (33 to 22 over 3 years). Beltran was better. A number of players were.
Winning is NOT about 'the best pitcher in baseball'. Santana and Pedro are GREATs, but not enough by themselves.
It is about a balanced combination of + or ++ pitching, offense and defense.
Uh, yes it does -- and we're talking about the present, not the past.
We're also talking about endorsement potential, as Shaun notes 129 .
Look, if Santana wants to accept less than what the Yanks and NY have to offer, and become a Red Sock, he's not worth talking about.
great line.
it is the twins who will be deciding where he ends up though. i think he'll take the loot regardless of where it comes from. i could be wrong though.
Absolutely! But as long as teams think the Yanks might be willing to move Hughes or Horne, why settle for IPK? The number of GMs who can be had now is tiny. It'd be another story altogether if guys like Dave Littlefield, Cam Bonifay, Chuck LaMarr, Syd Thrift, etc were still running teams, but they aren't.
"It's great that the Yankees have so many good young arms, but are they all going to pan out?"
Probably not, but again, its very easy to identify the guys who have the most upside and are the most likely to pan out. The guys who aren't on that list (ex: Tyler Clippard) are not going to fetch a front-line starter in return.
Unfortunately, I think the Twins would rightly hold out for Hughes. If that was the case, I'd offer them Hughes, Melky and Horne/Tabata/Jackson (and even Kennedy if my scouts advised me that IPK wasn't the real deal...it's funny, but IPK strikes me as last year's Tyler Clippard).
The problem with proposing a deal is I don't have access to the advanced scouting reports and medical records that I'm sure the Yankees have on their prospects. That's why I am not explicitly saying the Yankees have to go after Santana...if they strongly feel like IPK and Hughes are the real deal, then I can accept that. My only point is they had better be right, or have a plan B if they are not.
Having said that...
Hughes, Melky and Horne/Tabata/Jackson.
For clarity - 3 players total, or 4? Because the deal the twins rejected was Hughes + Melky + ?? (a minor leaguer who was probably in the Horne/Jackson/Tabata group) - instead demanding either 4 players, or Kennedy included with Hughes & Melky.
http://tinyurl.com/25gpod
I also don't get your point about learning a lesson? The Yankees aren't the first team to promote from within...there is plenty of precedent of lessons that have been learned regarding prospects. Instead of playing wait and see, the Yankees should be considering these cases in formulating their strategy.
As for the win shares argument, position players should have more than pitchers because they play more games and much more credit for defense. Also, we aren't talking about what acquisition wins us more regular season games (Arod does that nicely), but which one wins us Games 1, 4 and 7.
Finally, you are correct about balance, but the one thing that would balance the team best is the acquisition of a bonafide ace in the midst of his prime.
And our offense wasn't exactly stellar. I guess if they could score 4 runs/game, the bugs might not have been such as big issue.
Really... can we STOP pointing to 1 or 2 players, 1 or 2 games, 1 or 2 situations, and try to draw a 'Rule' from it? There is a huge amount of random luck/fate that factors into any short series. What we do over 162 games in much more an indicator of our quality then is the PS.
If a Zebra had farted in Africa, Meier may not have been at the game to interfer with Jeter's 'HR' and we may not have won that year. The same such fart may have changed the world enough to have Little Giambi slide on the 'flip play', and kill that series for us. It may have also changed the atmospheric pressure enough to have Mo make an accurate DP throw to 2nd base, or have T.Clarke's double NOT bounce into the stands, or effect any of 20 plays that could have had us beating the Sox in 2004.
I have never, never heard Jeter talk about the Yankees 'success' in 1996-2000 without saying 'you got to have luck'. He ALWAYS says that, because it's true.
Can we PLEASE PLEASE stop referring to PS outcomes as an indicator of anything other then that moment?
Just because Santana doesn't think the Yankees are the greatest thing since slided bread (pardon the pun) doesn't (pardon the double negative) mean he isn't worth talkign about. I think that last statement betrayed your position, which isn't very objective (and sounds a lot like Hank).
Um, no. 93 would've gotten it done this year. Did you look up the runner-up's records or the WC winner's records?
The reason I think any deal with Hughes is better is he has the most upside and, importantly for the Twins, one less year of service time than Lester. Also, Melky is much better than Crisp (mostly because of their ages). So, unless you are very high on Lowrie and Masterson (which is possible), I don't think the deals are close.
The bottom line Sox fans will think the Yankees offer is paltry, while we think the Sox offer is weak. The reason is we aren't viewing those deals with an emotional attachment to the prospects involved.
So...this might actually be a good trade, but it's philosophically undesirable?
I'll take talent over metaphysics any day.
145 "if they strongly feel like IPK and Hughes are the real deal, then I can accept that. My only point is they had better be right, or have a plan B if they are not."
My guess is that's exactly how Cashman feels, and plan B involves having all those other pitching prospects (Horne, Marquez, Sanchez, even Brackman) around.
And let's not forget - not trading for Santana is not the end. If he reaches the open market next year, I think the Yanks will make sure he signs with them.
To me, I'd rather have Santana AND Hughes than one or the other. I don't think anyone here would disagree with that. The question is, does he hit the open market?
A Yankees deal comparable to what the Red Sox have offered is Hughes-Melky-Gonzales-Horne, since Lowrie is better than Gonzales.
Part of the reason Chien Ming Wang was even allowed to pitch two shit games was that we didn't have anyone competent enough to pitch game four.
Having "okayish" pitching will probably be enough to get a good offense into the playoffs every year. That's not enough for me.
And the bugs have turned into such a cop out.
Our staff did not fall apart, Wang did. And CC did also. And our offense did also.
The only valid deduction I can make from last year's PS was that we played 'tight', and underperformed, Wang was off, and the bug swamp was as bizarre a way to lose a game as I can imagine.
The fact that we gained 12.5 games on the Sox in the 2nd half (even with a Hughes injury) is more telling to me then 4 games against Cleveland.
What a pedantic argument... the best players have the best chance win the most games, period.
162 If you want to build a team to win 89 games, be my guest- I'll be over here building a 95 win team.
I've also seen other iterations of that deal that swap in Ellisbury for Masterson. Sorry, but the Yankees can't really compete with that one without Hughes-IPK-Melky.
1) to have good options to promote to your major league team
2) to have good players to use as trade bait to acquire very good players
i would love to see how the bigr three pans out. but we really don't know how each of them will.
if there is any pitcher in the league that you trade one of them for - it is santana.
after years of not having much of a farm and then trading away what little was in the farm for one guy after another who did not pan out - it is a natural reaction not to want to go down that road again - but santana is different than the others (unit, javy vasquez, kevin brown, etc.)
look at boston's roster - other than pedroia, youk, and paplebon - what homegrown player made a major contribution to them winning the world series this year?
they have made some smart trades and had mixed success with their free agent signings.
163 167 etc - on the packages
i'm unclear on the latest of who is to be included. it seems the twins want 4 players though. it also seems they have only recently agreed to back off asking for ipk as well. it seems they asked for hughes/melky/horne/jackson and the yanks rejected that.
if the yanks only want to swap three players who is the 3rd player?
Absolutely right, but in 163 I never said he gets traded to Boston and doesn't sign an extension. To be clear, the only way he hits the open market is (1) the Twins keep him for all of 2008 and (2) he doesn't resign with the Twins.
Right now, I think the odds of that happening are pretty good.
While I think Hughes will be a successful major league pitcher, I am very suspect of Ian Kennedy. It's so hard to get a feel for a pitcher like him (small in stature) off a few innings. Also, unlike Hughes, IPK really only has 1 year of pro experience (A, AA, AAA and majors all in one season). Something about that worries me.
Once again, it's just as likely Santana breaks down as it is any of the kids do. They've all been pitching with innings limits their whole Yankee careers. Why did Johann stop throwing his slider in the second half last year?
Also once again, Hughes doesn't have to be the 25-28 year old Santana to make this trade a bad idea. That might be true if the trade was 1-1. It's pretty far from being 1-1.
Melky's not really as good a player (yet?) as a lot of people make him out to be, but he's our best option in CF by a mile.
Tabata or Jackson are pretty highly rated prospects, and at positions of need.
Horne (as the write up mentioned here on Banter a few days ago shows) may turn out to be a very good MLB pitcher himself-I'd say the odds are at least even on that.
So even if only half of the people we would be giving up reach their potential, the trade is very lopsided in the Twins favor.
This is a classic example of selling low and buying high. If we really feel we have too many prospects, we should at least let them gain some value in the majors before using them in trades.
The package of players the Twins receive is still in flux and there are two packages under discussion, with still varying mixes of players in each. The first is left-hander Jon Lester and center fielder Coco Crisp, the other is headed by center field prospect Jacoby Ellsbury. The Red Sox have successfully held the line on not including Ellsbury in a package with either Lester or Clay Buccholz, their other top starter.
The names, in some combo, minus one or two, include starter Justin Masterson and shortstop Jed Lowrie.
...
There is no other team involved in these negotiations, it is believed. There remains a chance that the Yankees could jump back in by agreeing to include Kennedy but it remains to be seen if the Red Sox and Twins are too far down the road for the Yankees to come back. Right now, it appears so.
http://tinyurl.com/2ogtfv
Let's remember a few other factors:
1) The Sox might not give enough and Santana stays with the Twins.
2) Santana was EMPHATIC that he did NOT say he would veto a mid-season trade. So maybe Minn. decides to see what happens in the first half (with Santana) and go from there.
3) The Sox get past the Twins but low-ball the cash (5/$110). Santana knows he can get 6/$150 from the Yanks as a FA, and can turn the Sox down.
4) Santana wants to play for the Yanks, and also, doesn't mind the idea of 6/$150
Maybe the odds of any one of those happening is small... but they are still part of the equation. So if the Yankee's trade portion itself had them on the shelf, then these factors might have them backing out.
We should remember that the Yankees are never afraid of chasing and paying the 'big gun' on the market. If they pull out, especially in light that the Sox might get him, they must have pretty strong feelings about this decision.
If we stay pat, we have the same team that played .600+ baseball once Phil and Joba were on the team. The same team... unless Cashman does something to make us better.
Why 89 wins? Why 93 wins? This is still a very good team right now.
And we will be better by April and better again by August.
I'm not sure how you generated your odds, but the fact remains that established major league pitches with 6 year track records of being the best in the league have a much better chance of outperforming prospects, some of whom have 1 or 2 years in pro-ball.
Lester was their odd man out of the rotation, and was at best their 4th starter in the coming years. Crisp was beyond a spare part. Lowries was blocked. Masterson (who the twins want b/c of his SETUP potential, WTF??) is still a year away, doesn't have great #s, and would be ticketed to the Sox BP.
So they Sox, essentially, can get Santana for nothing but $. Its an absolute steal for them, and I have to think everyone is going to see it that way. Sure, the Sox package has a SS in it, but they have to be kidding themselves if they think Lester and Masterson>Hughes, and Coco>Melky.
Its really amazing that the Yankees were asked to give up three pieces of their current team while the Sox can offer a package (that they offered BEFORE Hughes was included, mind you) that doesn't have ANY impact on them what so ever.
Enjoy fighting the Rays for 2nd place with our competing young and unproven kids (oh wait, the rays rotation actually has more proven young guys than ours does).
We're going into this year with an older version of the team that fell apart last year.
At least the Twins won't be as good...
Wang had a lousy couple of games, but even Santana has had bad post-season games. Meanwhile Jeter (Mr November) was horrid, and most of the team didn't do much of anything at the plate.
The trick is getting there-then luck and being hot (or in Wang's case, not being ice cold) take over.
Not quite true.
1. There is upside potential from 2/5 or 3/5 of the rotation (depending on whether or not all of the "big three" are in it).
2. There is upside potential in CF and at 2B, due to youth.
3. They age elsewhere, it's true. And that's a legit worry.
4. Cashman is working on other upgrades (bullpen, bench).
And I don't think it's fair to say the team "fell apart" last year. They made the playoffs and got beaten 3 games to 1 by a good team, with some wacky stuff happening along the way.
Cashman has helped a ton by shaping a deep system, and I'll suggest the way to use that deep system is in acquiring top of the line in their prime players. I hate (said this yesterday) losing some of the young vibe and going over the top on payroll, but those who have said 'best pitcher in the game' are right. As are those who point out this is not just NY not getting him, it looks as if it is Boston GETTING him. Much easier to take if he landed in Metsville, say. But this really looks like an either-or two team dance, which is why Minnesota is so strongly positioned.
Also agree with those who note it is not just about winning 93+ games it is going deep into the playoffs - this year. That distorts expectations, and even the running of the team, but it is a fact of life in the Bronx. No?
http://tinyurl.com/2qalqg
Assuming the Yankees don't foolishly deal Hughes for someone like Haren, then the Franchise is going to have a boat load of pressure this season. If, god forbid, he and his mates should fizzle (think about the Mets' generation K), this decision could turn out to be a major turning point into the Sox/Yankees cold war.
But how much more fun will it make to beat them.
And our attempts to upgrade the bullpen in recent years has left me less than excited. I have no reason to expect that to change.
Look... I am emotional about this and I am no GM. But Cashman doesn't like this deal either. And it's not an issue of 'assessing pitching'. Everyone knows how good Santana is. If this were a no-brainer, Steinbrenner would force the issue. Either way, it's a gamble, and hard to predict the outcome.
Don't get me wrong, I love the kids and can't wait to watch them, but Santana going to the Twins, especially for such crap, is a doomsday scenario...
Unless, of course, this is just more posturing by RSPN. Check this article by Jayson Stark:
http://tinyurl.com/34ssou
As far as I can tell, it contains absolutely nothing that wasn't known last night at 2:30AM, except for the stupid quote at the end.
This is the biggest sports story around right now; why not stoke the flame a bit?
If the Yankees trade Hughes for Haren, that just might be what I need to kick this addiction.
If the Yankees trade Hughes for Haren, it will lead to an addiction for me.
Do you really think Guidry only pitched 31 innings up to 1976? He pitched 301 innings in the minors from 1971 to 1974. He had a 5.26 ERA in AA in '74, which is pretty bad.
He was a little more effective in 75, but as late as 77 was offered to the Blue Jays for Bill Singer (the Jays said no). I wonder what Banter folks would say about trading a guy with an 0-1 MLB record for Bill Singer...
It's pretty common knowledge that he was driving home, ready to give up becoming a big league pitcher when his wife convinced him to give it one more shot.
It's also pretty common knowledge that he wasn't effective with that straight fastball until Lyle taught him the slider.
I don't know why anyone would think the Yankees weren't aware of him pitching in their own minor leagues until 1977. They were.
The original point stands-Guidry (and Wang) didn't become effective MLB pitchers until they were 25 (or more in Gator's case.)
http://tinyurl.com/2bm6yb
Haren, btw, won't be better than Hughes outside of McAfee Coliseum, and I guess Cash knows that.
Never mind Michael Kay's Fallacy of the Predetermined Outcome, which is true but unnecessary. If the Yankee won 89 games, those 5 wins would have gone somewhere, and you don't get to choose where they go.
The fact remains that 93 wins usually won't get a wild card.
VORP SNLVAR ERA+
Santana (2007) 57.7 6.3 130
Haren (2007) 56.4 6.3 137
Granted, Santana has far more dominant seasons on his resume, but was 2007 (a) an "off-year", (b) a "leveling off" or (c) the start of a decline? If the answer is (b) or (c), then Haren is more valuable, since he is younger and cheaper.
While Guidry did struggle in 77 innings in AA during the 1974 season, he was much more than "a little more effective in 1975". Promoted to AAA, Guidry had a 2.90ERA with a K/9 OF 11 in 60+ innings. At that point, I'd say it was clear Guidry had emerged as a prospect.
In 1975, Guidry was promoted and threw a solid, above average 16 innings. His reward in 1976 was to return to AAA, where he put up a 0.68 ERA and 11.25 K/9 in 40 innings. Those numbers are outstanding!. Unfortunately, Guidry was only given 16 more innings that season. If you think that was a fair chance, well, what can I say.
The famous story of Guidry heading home was due to his frustration with the Yankees not giving him a chance, not an indication of his struggles.
As to my original point, Guidry first full season (1977) was delayed by the Yankees because they refused to give him the chance that his 1975 and 1976 minor league numbers suggested he deserved. I enjoy a good history lesson, but it's better when it's accurate.
226 I'll be fine with Johan Santana.
The problem I have with the Will/Matt/Matt philosophy is that there's no such thing as certainty in baseball, and the philosophy they espouse can quickly lead to mortgaging the future for the hype of the moment.
Lastly, I still have fond memories of the fact that even when we were sucking as hard as we could last year, we still played our hearts out against the Sox. The rivalry motivates the players as much as it does the fans, and we're all familiar with the danger that comes with assuming you're the best. Whatever happens, I'm not worried.
Don't assume that the Sox's dominating performance in the PS = their season average. We'll get to them.
Santana: 155, 161, 130
Haren: 117, 108, 137
And Haren's only two years younger, not exactly a generational difference. I would bet that, 5 years from now, Santana is still considerably better than Haren.
But you're asssuming that the future they're "mortaging" is more certain than the "hype of the moment."
I'd also dispute the terms. Santana is no hype, he's the real thing. And the depth of young pitching they have ensures that they're not denuding the system.
They will have to trade some young pitching sooner or later. The trick is to get the best return for it.
How about Cano/Melky/Kennedy + lower level prospect (if necessary) for Santana?
Imagine going into the playoffs with a rotation that would be:
Santana/Wang/Pettitte/Hughes
(we could then use Joba as the 2 inning setup guy)
I would then sign Rowand to play CF and give Betemit a shot a 2B (or heck, you could just sing Eckstein... would that make him Heckstein?).
I'm not sure the Twins would go for it, but I would give it a shot. To me, the best pitcher in the league + the best pitching prospect in the league > a potential best 2b in the league.
Also, by age 29, Maddux best seasons were behind him, while Clemens had many more to go.
That last guy to go through his minor league career (prior to becoming an established starter) and post a K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 as ridiculous as Phil Hughes did in the minors was, as best as I can tell, Roger Clemens. (Admittedly Clemens did it in 127.7 innings compared to Hughes' 275).
Obviously their situations are much different - eg, Clemens was a great collegiate pitcher; Hughes never played college ball - to say nothing of the league contexts; maybe that skews the numbers, I don't know.
But, and you can call my crazy if you want, I think its reasonably possible that Phil Hughes could be the next Rocket. If I was going to bet on anyone, looking at all the minor league numbers has convinced me to bet on Hughes.
I'm against the inclusion of Phil Hughes in the deal. I was fine with parting with Kennedy, Melky, and some others. Minny will not accept such a package. Ok, fine, I'm done then.
I'm ok with trading prospects... in the right deal. For me, Hughes + Melky + Kennedy or Horne+Jackson is simply too much.
The Yankees have a number of pitchers in their system who can be 80% of Santana. It's tough to find a second baseman who is 80% of Cano.
Here's my problem though...if you are willing to deal Hughes and that potential for Santana, why would IPK hold up the deal?
"You're leaving out Jed Lowrie, who would probably be a part of any deal with the Red Sox. Lowrie's the real prize"
Clearly, the hype on Pagan was grossly misplaced, as not only Guidry but also Syracuse teamates and co-tradees MacGregor and Martinez when on stardom.
0) Can we agree that ANY player can get hurt, ANY player can fall off a cliff, and ANY 30+ year pitcher MIGHT decline OR MIGHT maintain, and we really can't prdict with accuracy those things for Phil, Joba or Santana?
If so, it's not really rational for our discussions, but rather stating the obvious.
1) Santana has been and is now better then Haren.
2) Haren is still a very good pitcher and an asset to a team
3) Haren is NOT worth trading Phil... and if Phil was 'just barely' offered for Santana, I can't imagine him being offerend for Haren.
4) Including the FA class of 2009, there are some very good pitchers (not as good as Santana but) who may be avilable to the Yankees via trade or FA... that will make our team better.
5) That those of us who want to keep Phil are driven somewhat by emotion, but that doesn't mean it's dumb, or can't end up being a better choice over 5 years, especially when cost is consided.
Are those thoughts radical? Are they a fair (close to) consensus?
Not to mention that we would have both Santana and Hughes in the rotation for the next five years.
254 You do need offense too and the Yankees bats are aging quickly. I wouldn't trade away that centerpiece, especially when pitching depth is the farm's depth. I'd rather have Hughes/Cano or Santana/Cano than Hughes/Santana.
255 I wasn't arguing with your point either...just pointing out that Guidry was ready for the majors before 1977, hype or not.
1)Yes
2)Yes
3)YES !!
4)Yes
5)Yes
Also, the 2008/9 FA class is undefined, so it can't be factored in, especially because teams are more likely to trade their stars then let them walk.
Finally, there is nothing wrong with emotion, but it isn't a sound way to make a logical decision. Sure, any move might work out in theory, but the objective should be to coldly analyze the possible outcomes and make an informed decision on that basis.
Cano/Melky/Kennedy/Farnsworth/mid-level prospect
for
Santana and Nathan
Farns could close for them and getting rid of him would be addition by subtraction for the Yanks.
Would you go for it?
You'll just make the Yankees think he's worth keeping.
Haren is a good pitcher with one excellent year. Beane will demand plenty for him. I'd be very surprised if you could get him for anything less than Kennedy + Melky - and at that point, I'd much rather make the Santana trade.
I agree. While I'd be upset if the Yanks did trade Hughes (for anyone), my reasons for keeping Hughes are the data I mentioned in 242 (hereafter, Hughes' "tremendous upside potential") coupled with his incredibly cheap cost for the next ten years vs. the huge cost (in dollars and players) of acquiring Santana for six or seven years. I am also OK with missing the playoffs in 2008, if that's a byproduct of the development of the kid pitchers.
Obviously, those who want to trade for Santana weigh things differently.
SI.com's Jon Heyman believes the Red Sox will enhance their offer for Johan Santana on Tuesday afternoon in order to get a deal done.
Perhaps that means one more prospect will go the other way. First baseman Lars Anderson, right-hander Michael Bowden and outfielder Ryan Kalish would have to be at the top of Minnesota's list if it's going to be a 5-for-1 deal. They're not expected to give the Twins both Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury.
273 Good point.
Perhaps Damon would go? A man can dream...
...
you guys catch that football game?
Damon throwing from "triples alley" or whatever they call it, that would be grim.
264 "I can't agree with those assumptions because it ignores the relevance of track record. A 29 year old pitcher who has been healthy and excellent is much more likely to remain so than an injury prone vet or an unproven rookie."
I'm not so sure of that. The Yanks have handled Hughes very carefully; for example, he wasn't allowed to throw his curveball for a couple of years. His little injuries here and there have also significantly reduced the amount of mileage on his arm for ages 18-21 (total IP: 347.7). As long as he's not over-extended the next 2-3 years, I think he might have better odds of staying healthy than Santana does.
Yes, so far Santana has held up under a very large workload - 912.3 IP over the last 4 years - but that mileage plus the "he didn't throw his slider after August 1 pain" make me worry a lot. Enough to weigh the injury risk in Hughes's direction.
I didn't guarantee specifically WHO would be on that list, although I think there are people who's contact is up after 2008, and have a decent chance of being on said list. Do you believe there will be a list (as opposed to none)? Do you believe there will be some quality players on that list (if there is a list)?
I absolutely agree. But when you have many variables, and much is guess work, and there are many different factors involved which as also guesswork, the analytical process might end up being guess work.
There is tons on evidence that pitcher of Santana's history degrade aroud 30. There is tons on evidence that pitcher of Santana's history continue to be effective well after 30. There are tons of excellent prospects who have failed, and many who have succeeded.
How much weight do you give to 2008? To 2009? Beyond? How much stock do you put into getting someone else? How much weight goes to financial considerations? Past experiences that have not worked out?
You should play the odds IF you know the odds. But sometimes it takes years for the odds to even out. Is a longshot at 20:1 better then best bet at 3:1?
The only thing I feel pretty strongly about it NOT getting Santana is based on a bigger upside after 2008, or 2009, as opposed to 2008.
There is also the factor that with our offense we can still win 100 games with a team ERA 0.5 higher then a team with average offense.
I confess that I am influenced by Winshares... and even Winshares per $$. I think great pitching holds a slight edge over great offense, but there are many ways to put together a winning team.
And there are many ways to build a winning team. We've tried "eh pitching" without success for several years now.
I, personally, would not say that, but one could.
Seriously though, I come here to read intelligent discourse about the Yankees. What has been going on in the comments for the last week has been re-hashed argument after re-hashed argument about whether or not Johan Santana will prove to be worth sacrificing Phil Hughes.
The answer is probably yeah, but very possibly not. We can't impact it, and nobody truly knows the answer. So reading the same arguments over and over has gotten a bit tedious, and I finally had enough to make one inocuous (unless you are Carlos Santana and/or his guitar tech) comment about my level of fed-upness.
Yeah I don't have to read it, you don't have to respond, blah blah blah, I get it. I voiced my opinion just like everyone is voicing theirs. Difference is, I didn't repeat it 14 times in the last 6 days.
P.S. I don't recommend looking at the comments at Lohud!
thanks a lot.
http://tinyurl.com/35zmv6
"One of the main [reasons] this was such a tough decision for me, one year could lead to another, maybe. For the main reason, if I'm healthy and if my family wanted to support it again, we would consider it, but also the Yankees are going to have a new stadium. I know down the road, when we get through this season, that will be in the back of my head also. That would be awfully nice, to play in that new stadium."
Also over at COH Mike Plugh had a great quote, "Trading away any of our top prospects for Haren is a sure fire way of making the Javier Vazquez mistake all over again."
I have to agree with that statement. Haren is good and has shown signs of being an ace, but is he really the sure thing we are looking for?
Five great humans rolled into one!
http://tinyurl.com/yqwfoj
297 I didn't realize it, but you're exactly right about the repeated arguments. Thanks for pointing it out.
The Orioles and Dodgers may be close on a deal that will send left-hander Erik Bedard to Los Angeles, a baseball source said. The O's are in need of a center fielder and a closer who can play at the major league level, and the Dogders seem willing to part with outfielder Matt Kemp and reliever Jonathan Broxton, who could come in a close in lieu of Chris Ray, out for the year after Tommy John surgery. "They want Bedard bad," said the source.
the angels are getting in on santana.
http://tinyurl.com/2oogzy
http://tinyurl.com/2n5nyv
there goes that idea.
And waiting for a free agent is beyond stupid. As mehmattski has said, a bird in the hand, and all that jazz. Especially when that bird is the king of all birds, Johan Santana.
Meanwhile, there's no guarantee anymore that the Yankees can get whatever FA they want. Every team has money now, and we've seen recently guys turning down the Yankees.
having santana on the other coast might have been a welcome alternative to some.
plus, if the angels get the twins' attention, they could at least raise the asking price on the sox. make it hurt a bit.
that was the origin of the raised chins.
297 Is not! Is too! Is not! Is too!
I'm with you. I don't know if this horse is dead, but it was coughing up blood last night.
the yanks best position players, other than cano, are at their peak or beginning a decline. so if this team (meaning one in which jeter, arod, posada, maybe abreu and a few others are among the best players) is going to win a ws, it probably needs to happen in the next few years.
i think santana definitely gives you that over hughes and taking it further a rotation of santana, wang, pettitte, joba, ipk/moose takes a lot of pressure of joba and ipk/moose and slots people to their more natural place in a rotation for the next year or two.
now the counter for this is what are the long-term implications. i/we don't fully know. but in a few years time we are hoping that some of these other pretty highly touted pitching prospects will be ready to take a place in the rotation. my guess is that andy will need the most immediate replacing, with hopes that wang and santana would be good for at least 3 years and hopefully more.
lastly, the construction of this team and what exists in the farm makes me want to hold onto jackson the most of any of the 3rd prospects.
We can beat the Red Sox all 18 times. If our pitching continues to be mediocre at best and theirs continues to be the best in baseball, with the possible inclusion of the best pitcher in baseball, I really don't see how things are going to be any different.
Seems like there is something amiss in your analysis. If 120 run pitching differential is significant (favoring the Sox), 100 run offensive differential should be significant also (favoring the Yanks).
It is not all doom and gloom in the Yanks/Sox universe for the Yankee fans. If you take out the abysmal April where the Yankees trotted out rookie pitcher after rookie, then the picture looks better. From May onwards, the Sox scored 738 runs and gave up 568. Yanks scored 827 and gave up 659. The offense scored 89 more runs. But the pitching differential improves to only 91 runs.
So clearly the Sox have better pitching. But the Yanks have clearly the better offense. And if we ever get real production from 1st base, we will more than adequately make up for the probable decline from Posada and A-Rod. Meanwhile the Sox offense doesn't really improve since Ellsbury's offense should compensate for Mike Lowell's decline.
"The San Francisco Chronicle reported that according to two officials with knowledge of former Sen. George Mitchell's probe of performance-enhancing drugs in baseball, the report will be released in the two weeks before Christmas, rather than during the winter meetings.
That means that teams could make deals during the winter meetings, only to learn two weeks later that the free agent they just signed faced possible discipline by Major League Baseball for past use of banned substances."
if true - twins chances of doing anything next year go down; and angels are even more likely to go for santana now since they would not be getting cabrera
they are said to be going after andruw jones as well... according to guillen.
willis may actually be key - i don't see the tiger's staff as that great and it seems fairly injury prone.
but cabrera in the lineup is rough - and he supposedly already lost 15lbs
Baseball Prospectus has the Santana deal all but done, but no one else has it that close. If the Yankees really do stand pat and let everyone else snap up the big names, you have to admire Cashman's conviction. I also think it proves that Cashman is still very much in control of the team.
key points:
1) yanks would use a six man rotation
2) he is high on farnsworth too -
i think mattpat may need an alibi - i'll work on one.
if we are stuck with professor farnswacker for another year - he better have his once every few years decent year this year
1) One of the many reasons Girardi is the right man for the job.
2) Whatever, I just take it as posturing to increase his trade value or psyche Kyle into having confidence or something.
344 I'm horrified that if he has a decent year they'll keep him.
I'm not a Farnsy fan, but I gotta give him credit. When he's on his game, that fastball is unreal.
352 yes - and the other moves (meaning the off season re-sigings) and the fact that as i mentioned earlier most of our best players are at their peak and are heading or are in decline and that the position player cuppard is somewhat bear make that a slightly tougher strategy
353 let's hope that's what detroit is
355 i'm sure it's hard to throw a 100 when your neck is stiff :}
Phil Hughes (at least equivalent to Miller)
Melky Cabrera (Maybin is faster and has a bit more power)
Jesus Montero (back-up catcher, although Nabelo can contribute immediately)
Ross Ohlendorf (24 y/o 6-year minor league reliever, like de la Cruz)
Jeff Marquez (22 y/o starter at AA)
Alan Horne (24 y/o starter at AA with great peripherals)
I adjusted up a prospect level on the last three guys because Nabelo is signficantly further along than Montero, and Maybin projects better than Melky. Can you imagine if the Yankees made that trade? We'd probably all be drinking ourselves to death tonight, although I'm not sure whether it would be out of pleasure or pain.
http://www.cameronmaybin.tv/
(Guess he's going to have to get himself a new theme song...)
FWIW, Pete Abe quotes Hank as saying the Yankees are out of the Santana mix...but Pete thinks the Yankees likely told the Twins to give them a call before they do anything permanent. And points out that the Red Sox have backed out of a trade before, when they couldn't come to a deal with the player (A-Rod).
MLB Trade Rumors says Theo expects the negotiating to go deep into the night. Sounds like they're still arguing names.
Holy crap.
366 Well, I guess its time to start believing the hype and hope the kids live up to it.
Melky 364 PA .288/.341/.438o
Maybin 339 PA .304/.393/.486
So, like I said, Maybin is more projectible and has more power. So I stand by my trade analogy in 362 , unless you're suggesting that the Yankees would have had to give up more than what I said, like subbing in Jackson for one of the pitchers.
It's been tough trying to follow any of this the past week. One minute it's a for sure thing, the next it's not. I want to stay in NY and its good to know I have the backing of the fan base.
You sure do kid. We want you in pinstripes for a long time.
Do the Yankees end up WITH Santana?
(prizes given out on Friday)
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