Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
By now, everyone has heard the list of names featured on the Hall of Fame’s player ballot for 2008. Several ex-Yankees highlight the first-year eligibles, including Tim "Rock" Raines, David Justice, and Chuck Knoblauch. Raines should be elected, but won’t be, simply because too many writers lack an appreciation of on-base percentage and the rest of Raines’ well-rounded game. Justice and Knoblauch obviously don’t deserve election to Cooperstown in spite of being fine everyday players and key contributors to the most recent Yankee dynasty.
In my mind, a far more interesting Yankee candidacy can be found on the other ballot—the managers/umpires ballot being considered by the Veterans Committee this Sunday. Of the seven managers on that ballot, perhaps the most fascinating and controversial storyline involves Alfred Manuel "Billy" Martin. Best remembered for being the five-time skipper of the Yankees, Martin also made numerous headlines during his stops in Minnesota, Detroit, Texas, and Oakland. Does "Billy the Kid" deserve election to the Hall of Fame? Let’s take a closer look.
There’s a tendency to underrate Billy Martin as a player and overrate him as a manager. Perhaps that’s because most of the images that the 50-and-under crowd retains of Martin are from his combative, fiery, and turbulent tenure as a field manager. Yet, in examining his Hall of Fame candidacy, we should consider the entirety of his baseball career, including his significant accomplishments as a scrappy, overachieving player for a lasting baseball dynasty.
It’s easy to forget that Martin’s playing days spanned the entire decade of the 1950s, lasting a total of 11 seasons. A favorite of Yankee manager Casey Stengel, Martin became the team’s semi-regular second baseman during the first half of the decade. In 1952, ’53, and ’56, he played more games at second base than any other Yankee; at other times, he filled in at shortstop and third base, giving Stengel depth and flexibility on the infield. A good fielder with occasional power who twice reached double figures in home runs, Martin sometimes struggled to reach base and lacked the speed to steal bases. Though never one of the best players on his own team, he did make the All-Star steam in 1956 and emerged as a decent complimentary player on teams filled with heavy-hitting stars from top to bottom.
The postseason, however, saw Martin transform himself from ordinary player to clutch-hitting hero and defensive stalwart. In the 1952 World Series, he helped the Yankees preserve a two-run lead in Game Seven by catching a wind-blown pop-up that normally would have been handled by the first baseman or the catcher. He fared even better in the ’53 World Series, batting an even .500 with two home runs and eight RBIs, numbers that earned him the Series’ Most Valuable Player Award. Even in later Series, Martin continued to play well, hitting .320 in 1955 and .296 in 1956. For those who consider the postseason a crapshoot, Martin’s numbers might not mean much; for others, they represent a gritty player who performed his best when the games meant the most.
After his playing career ended, Martin spent eight seasons preparing for what would become his true calling—managing in the major leagues. Working as a scout, third base coach, and minor league skipper in the Twins’ organization, Martin finally earned his first big league managing job in 1969. The Twins promoted him from their Triple-A farm team and promptly watched the rookie manager lead the team to the postseason in the first year of divisional play. In winning 97 games, the Twins improved by 17 games over their 1968 finish. Martin extracted the most from role players like Rich Reese and Cesar Tovar, watched stars Rod Carew, Harmon Killebrew and Tony Oliva thrive in the top half of the Minnesota lineup, and helped develop two 20-game winners.
Just as quickly as it blossomed, Martin’s tenure in Minnesota turned sour. The Twins lost three straight games to the Orioles in the playoffs and team owner Calvin Griffith became disenchanted with his temperamental skipper, who had beaten up one of his 20-game winners in August. Regarding those problems as more significant than the sum of Martin’s work during the regular season, Griffith fired Martin. There would be no opportunity for a Martin encore in Minnesota.
Instead, Martin sat out the 1970 season and awaited his next opportunity. That would come in 1971, when the Tigers fired the venerable Mayo Smith and brought in the younger, more energetic Martin. Despite having an aging team that paled in comparison with the 1968 World Championship club, Martin guided the Tigers to a strike-shortened AL East title in 1972. The Tigers then extended a vastly superior A’s team to a decisive fifth game in the ALCS, losing by just one run. Given the team’s age, it should not have come as a surprise that Martin’s Tigers would stumble in 1973. Perhaps prematurely and almost certainly unfairly, the Tigers gave Martin the boot in mid-season.
Having managed mostly veteran teams in Minnesota and Detroit, Martin then showed his ability to handle young talent at his next stop. The Rangers, looking for a fulltime successor to Whitey Herzog, gave Martin a call during the second half of the ’73 season. Well on their way to 105 losses, the Rangers had no chance to salvage the season, but hoped that Martin could work some magic the following summer. Martin did just that, leading Texas to a remarkable 27-game improvement, good for second place in the AL West. Overcoming a shocking lack of power (only 99 home runs for the season), Martin encouraged the Rangers to run wild on the bases. (Martin loved an aggressive approach to the game; if his team had speed, he used it.) As for his pitching staff, Martin had only one reliable reliever in the bullpen, so he relied heavily on Jim Bibby and Fergie Jenkins to soak up innings. The net result? In spite of a large disparity in talent, the Rangers finished within five games of the World Champion A’s.
Unfortunately, the Rangers may have improved too much too quickly, creating unrealistically high expectations. The pattern of "season-after" dismissals continued in 1975, when the Rangers regressed badly (in other words, back to reality) and the front office responded by blaming Martin. They sacked Martin in mid-summer, just as the Tigers had done in 1973. The latest firing set the stage for what would become the most famed part of Martin’s career.
On the prowl for a high-profile manager, George Steinbrenner offered Martin the Yankees’ job in the middle of the 1975 season. With a talented team on the verge of contention and an owner willing to spend money for top-flight talent, Martin found himself in the most attractive managerial situation of his career. It was also the most dangerous, given Steinbrenner’s penchant for meddling, a bubbling New York media that forever in search of soap opera storylines, and Martin’s own combustible personality.
In 1976, Martin took the Yankees as far as they should have gone—a league pennant and a four-game World Series loss to Cincinnati’s vastly superior "Big Red Machine." The following year, expectations for New York grew with the signing of Reggie Jackson, whom Martin didn’t like. Stubbornly, Martin refused to bat Jackson cleanup for most of the summer, then finally relented when faced with the loss of his job. Battling the egos of Jackson and Steinbrenner throughout the year, along with his own continuing struggle with alcoholism, Martin steered the Yankee ship—sometimes unsteadily—after a faulty start. In spite of a chaotic clubhouse and frenzied front office atmosphere, Martin and the Yankees won the World Series, defeating two very good teams (the Royals and Dodgers) along the way.
Predictably, Martin’s first marriage with New York ended the following summer. With the Yankees underachieving and Martin having disparaged Reggie and George as "born and convicted liars," the Yankees laid the axe to Martin’s neck. He would return during the ill-fated 1979 season, only to take the fall again, this time at season’s end.
Then came the most astonishing work of Martin’s career. He became the manager of the A’s, who had long since fallen into disarray under the penny-pinching ownership of Charlie Finley. Playing an aggressive style that emphasized the use of the stolen base, the hit-and-run, and a variety of trick plays, Martin’s philosophy became known as "Billy Ball." Knowing that he had little talent in his bullpen, Martin asked his starting pitchers to complete games at a time when most other managers pulled their starters in favor of long, middle, and closing relievers. In the short term, Martin’s strategies worked.Paced by an astonishing 94 complete games in 1980, Martin’s A’s jumped 29 games in the standings, from 7th to 2nd place. After overachieving to open the 1981 season with a record of 17-1, the A’s made the postseason, defeating the Royals in the Division Series before falling to the Yankees in the League Championship Series. That the A’s made it that far without a standout in the bullpen (Dave Beard and Jeff Jones tied for the team lead with three saves) and without anything approximating a quality infield (featuring the immortal double play combination of Shooty Babitt and Rob Picciolo) remains a testament to Martin’s in-game managerial brilliance.
Like the A’s, all of Martin’s teams showed significant improvement over their immediate predecessors—no matter how mediocre the talent on hand. Unfortunately, none of the turnarounds endured in the long run. By the third season, Martin had usually clashed with the front office or alienated too many of his players, with several taking residence in his ever-expanding doghouse. In the case of the A’s, he blew out the arms of overused starters Mike Norris, Rick Langford, Matt Keough, and Steve McCatty, whose careers all short-circuited.
Late in his career, during his final tours of duty with the Yankees, Martin’s managing started to show additional cracks. Oh, he still won games at a clip well over .500, but employed some bizarre pieces of strategy. During a 1985 game in Detroit, Martin ordered Yankee third baseman Mike Pagliarulo to bat right-handed against Tigers left-hander Mickey Mahler. A stunned Pagliarulo, who hadn’t switch-hit in years, proceeded to strike out feebly against Mahler. And then, during Martin’s final managerial go-round in 1988, he made a number of ill-advised tactical decisions. He mishandled closer Dave Righetti, concocted a seven-man rotation at one juncture, and even used pitcher Rick Rhoden as a designated hitter despite the fact that the veteran right-hander suffered from a bad back. If anything, Martin’s two final managerial terms damaged his Hall of Fame chances; his resume might look stronger without those ill-fated stints in pinstripes.
So how do we assess the winding, checkered career of Martin, featuring nine stops with five different franchises along the way? The bottom line adds up to two league pennants and one World Championship, which are relatively light numbers for a Hall of Famer. On the other hand, his winning percentage of .553 puts him in the company of Walter Alston (.558) and above Sparky Anderson (.545). Martin also deserves some credit for five division titles, some of which were accomplished with severely flawed teams. Let’s also give him extra credit for his miraculous work in Texas and Oakland, succeeding where nothing short of managerial genius would have sufficed. And, of course, let’s not forget his accomplishments as a player, particularly as a contributor to Stengel’s Yankee dynasty.
In the short term, few managers have ever done better than Martin. Given one game to win, I doubt that I would pick anyone other than "Billy the Kid." A brilliant in-game strategist, Martin understood how to make out a lineup card, usually stacking his best hitters at the top of the order. He also played to the strength of his pitching staff. If his bullpen didn’t have quality arms, he avoided it. If it did, he tried to ride the hot hand in the late innings.
Unfortunately, Martin cannot be fully assessed without looking at his chronic off-the-field problems. As much as some analysts don’t like their inclusion in the debate, character and integrity are part of the criteria for the Hall of Fame. This is where Martin failed badly, fueled largely by his problems with alcohol. He repeatedly fought with others, from perfect strangers (including the famed marshmallow salesman) to his own players (Boswell and Ed Whitson). He frequently bullied members of the press or lesser employees in the front office. These incidents didn’t represent merely a flaw in Martin’s character; they prevented him from achieving more lasting legacies with each of his teams. After all, some of those conflicts resulted in his early firings, preventing him from achieving the kind of long-term success that might have resulted in additional pennants or World Championships. It’s that lack of sustained excellence, the inability to produce repeatedly good results in any stop outside of New York, that ultimately make Martin fall just short of the lofty Hall of Fame standard.
Bruce Markusen is the author of the upcoming book, Out of Left Field: Unusual Characters in Baseball History, which features an entry on Billy Martin. He also writes Cooperstown Confidential for MLB.com. Please send feedback to bmark@telenet.net.
Interesting that you bring Martin up, right after my take on Tim Raines. As you mention very gently, Martin had a problem with the bottle. He is probably MLB's most famous case, but as incidents with Tony LaRussa and Bobby Cox, 2 sure hall of fame managers reveal, he is far from being alone. The tradition of having alcohol in the clubhouse, not to mention the boys club mentality the game breeds, with the party never stopping many nights on the road has been romanticized in the past.
As I constantly discuss at my site, I'm no moralist, which is the reason I have real problems with the public's view that steroids are the utmost evil, while all other drugs are lesser evils. Truthfully, if I was an owner, alcohol would be the drug I would be most concerned with because I don't see where it can ever be a help on the field. For every case where a hungover (if not drunk) Grover Cleveland Alexander or David Wells pitching well on the mound or a Max McGee groggily just getting to the Super Bowl field after partying the night before only to become the MVP of the game, my guess is there are far more cases where athletes gave a poor effort because of alcohol.
Off my soapbox now, as I need a beer after all of this writing.
He may have been the best manager I ever saw - for one season. (For the long haul, give me Earl Weaver any day.) But every job ended badly, and usually quickly. that has to detract from his record (and you're right about his last, twitchy, paranoid stints with the Yankees).
One of his most consistent traits as a manager was piling a ton of innings on a couple of starters. Some of them, like Jim Kaat and Fergie Jenkins, handled it just fine. Quite a few others never recovered, like Dave Boswell, Ed Figueroa, and that infamous A's staff.
And one thing I've never quite been able to explain is his remarkable record with Ron Guidry. Guidry pitching for Billy: 84-26, 3.07. Guidry pitching for any other manager: 86-65, 3.72.
I don't know how much stock I would put in citing OPS for middle infielders from the 1950s. Most middle infielders of that era weren't expected to hit for power or carry the load offensively; defense was usually the first and foremost priority. Different game than today, different expectations. Martin was a good defensive second baseman who could also fill in at short and third, a good bunter who led the league in sacrifice bunts one year, and an aggressive (sometimes overly so) and smart player who didn't have a lot of natural talent. He was a decent role player on some great teams, and a guy who elevated his play in the World Series.
Comparing him to recent Yankee second baseman, he was clearly not anywhere near as good as players like Cano, or Soriano, or Knoblauch. He was more like a Mariano Duncan type, though probably not that good. (I hesitate to bring up Womack, since those are bad memories.) I think there's a perception that Martin was just a bit player or a utility guy; I think he was a little bit more than that.
You're absolutely right about his handling of pitchers. He was a big believer in riding his two best pitchers (or four in the case of Oakland). He wouldn't have been able to do that today, not with the emphasis on pitch counts and innings totals. I'm not sure how he would have reacted to today's restrictions.
I read that as "Roger re-signs" and did a spit take.
Once again, we are getting out GM'ed by the Sox. We get the best+/- for 6 years at $150m, they get the 5th best+/- for 3 years at $16m.
SANTANA IS TOO EXPENSIVE!!!
NO PITCHER IS WORTH $150 MILLION!!!
NOBODY. NOT A TWO-ARMED SANDY KOUFAX!!!
As a FA, we can over-overpay this dude because it is only money. So we overpay $40 million. I can afford that.
But to ALSO give up Phil? Melky and Tabata/Horne????
INSANITY!!
Do drugs if you need to, but JUST SAY NO to Santana!
SAVE PHIL HUGHES!
There is only one salvation.
ARE YOU LISTENING CASHMAN?
Make like we are getting Santana, stall, let the Sox get Harden (and trade away their young studs), and the DROP THE SANTANA DEAL!
Let him sit in Minn. for a year, and buy the dude NEXT YEAR!
NO MORE TRADING OUR STUDS!
NO MORE OVERPRICED VETERANS!
NO MORE LONG CONTRACTS FOR PITCHERS!
ARE YOU LISTENING CASHMAN?
SAVE PHIL HUGHES!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The only question the Yankees should be considering is how much better will Santana be than Hughes over the next 5-6 years. There are so many different possible answers to that question that the eventual outcome of such a swap could range from a steal to a bust.
Also, while Keith Law and others have argued that you are only trading for one year, the fact remains that if Santana is dealt (and the Twins seem intent on it), he will likely sign an extension and be lost to you forever. Just because he has only 1 year on his deal with Minnesota, doesn't mean that if you decided to not make a deal, you'll get another crack at him next season. If that was the case, then I am sure no team would be offering the Twins much at all.
$40mm/yr... in a long term contract... for a 29 years old pitcher.... You are joking, yes?
2009 FAs - (Age/ERA+ last 3 years)
A.J. Burnett (32/116)
Rich Harden (27/130ish)
John Lackey (30/134)
Jake Peavy (30/128)
Brad Penny (31/120)
C.C. Sabathia (28/129)
Ben Sheets (30/121)
Also, Santana may well not be available in a year. At this point, I'd guess that he won't be.
"But with Wang, Joba, Phil, IPK, Horne and others, when you consider our offense, Haren is more then enough." Out of curiosity, what were you expecting to give up for Haren? Why do you think Beane would give him away without getting one of The Untouchables in return?
Haren could arguably be worth as much as Santana in the trade market, because he's under contract at a bargain price for three more years. You may not have to give up Hughes/Melky/Jackson, but I'd be very surprised if it didn't take Kennedy/Melky to get him.
So you have to go out and sign Rowand, another overpriced veteran free agent. Put him and Haren on the team...and I think the Red Sox are still better. And, of course, if the Sox get Santana, they're much, much better.
The Minneapolis Star Tribune's Lavelle E. Neal III believes the Yankees are now offering Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy in return for Johan Santana.
"The Minneapolis Star Tribune's Lavelle E. Neal III believes the Yankees are now offering Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy in return for Johan Santana."
Gee... Lets just throw in Tabata and get it done. I wonder if a Minn. newspaper has an agenda?
13 It's an excellent idea. It may hold late in Guidry's career: big 1983, diminished 1984, big 1985, then done. But 1980-82, Guidry was healthy, and even pretty good - just not as good as under Martin. Maybe Art Fowler was an unsung genius?
The story goes that Fowler once went out to talk to a pitcher who was getting shelled. "I don't know what you're doing wrong," he said, "but it's sure pissing Billy off."
One other note on Billy Martin. I loved it when he hired Willie Horton to be his "attitude" coach.
Lets say the Yanks don't get Santana or any stud this year.
I think it will be obvious to everyone that next hot stove they will be looking HARD for a stud SP. Due to these regotiations, everyone now knows the Yanks will go 6/$150 for Santana. Zito got $18m for 7 years.
So, many of those guys on the list are good for better then Zito money.
How much will Cleveland give CC?
Will the Yankees offer $5m/yr more?
Even Posada and Mo were 'free Agents' this year. Yes, not a good example, but they were.
You don't think a number of guys on that list would like to talk to the Yanks next year?
17 I assume that any trade for anyone worthwhile will cost Melky--that does not bother so much, even though I am highly skeptical of Damon back in CF, because the team does have a sort of surplus of OF.
My trepidation about the trade, like yours, entirely involves Hughes. My anxiety is not entirely accurate, of course. For example, I am convinced that in any big trade that is not a total salary dump (like the Abreu deal) the Yankees will lose out. Second, I really looked forward to watching them try to develop all three (or more) young starters. Somehow I have a feeling that the team is panicking a bit not only about Santana, but also about Hughes. Have they been reading Was Watching, or something?
The Minneapolis Star Tribune's Lavelle E. Neal III essentially admitted he was guessing when he reported the Yankees were offering Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy to the Twins for Johan Santana.
Neal apparently had no inside info here, so there's still no reason to think the Yankees are willing to part with both Hughes and Kennedy. FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal said this afternoon that the Twins are targeting right-hander Alan Horne or defensive-minded shortstop Alberto Gonzalez as the third player along with Hughes and Cabrera. In his latest blog, ESPN's Peter Gammons seems to think it's almost a given that the trade will be completed.
25 Not only do I agree with your thinner limb, I'll go one further. We will win the WS once in the next 3 years and still come to regret this deal in the next 5 years.
SI.com's Jon Heyman reports that the Twins are holding out for either Alan Horne or Austin Jackson as a third player along with Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera in a Johan Santana deal.
Might as well. The Yankees aren't exactly known for their ability to draw a line in the sand, and why should they start when it's the best pitcher in baseball they're bartering to acquire? We'd part with Horne first, though he emerged as a fine starting pitching prospect last season. Heyman also says that the Red Sox may consider including Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal with the Twins if Minnesota was willing to include another player or two. He goes on to write, "Boston and Minnesota have remained in contact, but it's believed the Yankees have come closer to meeting the Twins' asking price to this point."
Go get 'em Red Sox!
A Yankees official told Newsday on Saturday night that he is optimistic about the team's chances of acquiring Johan Santana.
Newsday didn't have any additional info on who might be included along with Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera.
You people have lost your mind. The mantle has swung from one extreme to the other, from win at all costs to hold onto every single kid at all costs.
Good grief!
If they trade Hughes with Melky then the 3rd prospect bettter not be anyone better than Alan Horne (Kennedy / Jackson / Tabata / Montero / Betenaces etc..)
If Boston REALLY goes all the way to somehting like.. Buchholz + Lester +Ellsbury, then LET THEM HAVE HIM . you'll see the reasoning in a couple year, i'd be more than willing ot risk one or two year if it means they're screwed long term.
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/3/people-against-trading-phil-hughes
"The Twins know they would get Hughes and center fielder Melky Cabrera for Santana... [and] have told the Twins that at least five other prospects are untouchable — Dellin Betances, Alan Horne, Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and José Tabata.
According to two major league officials who have dealt with the Twins in recent days, the main issue holding up the deal is the third player the Yankees would give.
The Yankees would like an answer from the Twins today or tomorrow, when the winter meetings begin in Nashville. If they do not get Santana, the Yankees would probably turn their attention to the Oakland right-hander Dan Haren.
The Twins ... seem to covet [Ellsbury] even more than Hughes."
Ellsbury is an exciting player and looks like a natural. But am I missing something? Coveting a non-power OFer over the #1 Pitching in MiLB?
I hope we go after Haren. The A's are rebuilding and might accept IPK, Melky WITH 2 other second tier prospects. Between Jeff Marquez, Sanchez, Edwar Ramirez, Kelvin DeLeon, Ross Ohlendorf, Eric Duncan, Scott Patterson, Steven White, Karstens, Rasner and Meloncon(sp?), they would have some talent in the wings. Maybe 3 of these guys, if necessary.
We should remember that Haren'c contract is so cheap (in $$), that we could still give Sabathia a 5/$100m contract and still have less money invested then getting Santana.
I think we have to consider that Andy is done.
Haren, Wang, Phil, Joba, Moose/Horne looks pretty good. Is that one of the best 1-4 around? Even Old Moose must be one of the better #5s. Looks to me like 2-#1.5s and 2-#2s.
Am I off?
That depends.
1. Is Haren the pitcher who put up a 137 ERA+ last year, or the one who was at 108 and 117 the two previous years?
2. How good are Hughes and Joba going to be right away? The odds are against both of them being legit #2-type pitchers immediately.
3. Moose might be completely, stick-a-fork-in-him done.
4. If the Red Sox were to get Santana, that might well give them three starters better than anyone on the Yankees. It would give them an extremely powerful and relatively young rotation. The Yankees will be looking at the wild card, at best, for quite some time.
Hitting tends to be much more predictable than pitching, and a very good full time position player is often more valuable than a very good starting pitcher.
If I am the Twins, and I am planning on parting with one of the best pitchers in the game, I might be tempted to err on the side of greater assurance than greater potential.
Maybe I'm tired, maybe it's a video quirk.
Olney is now reporting that the Red Sox will include Ellsbury (instead of Lester), and will up the quality of the rest of the package...
2. I had to share this from "Jazz Hands" over at LoHud because it's the craziest, funniest thing:
"You know what would be really funny? If Bill Murray were to show up at the winter meetings.
Like, he'd just show up at the Gaylord Opyland Hotel, in a suit, sit on the couches in the lobby, and stare at baseball executives, listen in on conversations, nod like he understands and approves from time to time.
Then, when he's in an elevator, with like, two people from the meetings (interns, nobody important) right before he would get off, he'd rub their heads and give them nuggies and say "no one will ever believe you," and run off.
That would be funny."
I am guessing this DB is available to the public? Do you purchase it? Is it 'Public Domain'? How current is it (yearly?). Anyone know how/where you get an MLB players stats database?
But, seriously, sometimes it's just laughable the lengths that people will go to in order to discredit some of the best players in the game. With A-Rod, on the short list of best hitters of all time, it's about his clutchitudiness. With Johan Santana, it's because he hasn't been an absolutely perfect pitcher. Imagine, in 1989, if the Yankees had a chance to trade for Roger Clemens. Sure, he was the best young pitcher in ages, but he only had an ERA+ of 104 in his most recent season. Forget the 164, 175, and 213 in the previous seasons- he's clearly on the decline! I've also seen Santana's post-season record as evidence against trading for him. Insane.
I would be just as excited to see the three kids develop as Yankees. But let's not lie to ourselves: if all contracts became void and the teams were allowed to have one big draft, Johan Santana would be the first pitcher selected and probably in the top 5 overall.
Forget about the money- the Yankees have plenty of it. A team with Johan Santana and Andruw Jones is a much better team in 2008 than a team with Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera. As for 2009 and beyond, it depends on Jones' contract, but I feel pretty confident that 35 year old Santana will be able to compete with 28 year old Hughes. The chance of injury is just as great with a 21 year old unproven pitcher (who, I may add, has already had three injuries costing him a total of 12 months), as there is for a 28 year old proven top pitcher with no injury history.
Sorry, but if the question is "Do we trade for Johan Santana?" The answer is yes.
56 I've been to the Gaylord Opryland Hotel. It's pretty unbelievable, if a bit disjointed (as PeteAbe noted earlier). It's basically like four giant hotels (each with their own theme) connected in the middle with a giant, 10 story rotunda. In the rotunda there are a bunch of shops and places to eat that are situated on an island... with a river running through it. The river is fully stocked with various fishes, and you can pay for a tour on a glass-bottomed boat around the river. The place is insane.
As for the database, here you go: http://www.baseball1.com/statistics/
for some nice pics of the torture our brass has to put up with
You can bet your ass if the Yanks don't land Johan that they go hard after a much lesser pitcher like Haren, and that will cost them as they will have even less leverage.
People are also acting like the Yankees are trading for a pitcher who has 1 good year left in him. Look at Moose's year 29-34. I would be very surprised if Hughes puts up 6 years of that, and wouldn't you take similar years from Santana, except that they will be better b/c hes a better pitcher?
Fine, hold on to all the kids and therefore let most of them rot in the minors and go to waste. Do you really think that they will all pan out and that the Yankees have a use for all of them? If you could turn Cano into utley, wouldn't you? If you could turn Ajax into Prince Fielder, wouldn't you?
Except in this case, the rumors did not mention kids buried in the minors--a (hypothetical) trade of Melky, Hughes and IPK means swapping the starting CF and two starting pitchers. Maybe that's a good package for Santana, maybe not.
The IPK, Hughes, Melky package ain't happening...
If the Sox really have included Ellsbury, there may be very little the Yanks can do. A package of him, Lowrie, Bowden, and Masterson fills a lot more of their needs then Hughes, Melky, and a prospect not named IPK. And I'm not sure anyone here would say that Hughes AND IPK is acceptable in the same deal.
And if Boston throws in Lester, its over...Even if they don't, it might be over.
Again, this might be a good trade for the Yankees, but it is far from a no-brainer.
But as you say, the Sox may render the whole discussion moot.
SI.com's Jon Heyman reports that the Yankees have set a Monday deadline for a resolution to the Johan Santana trade talks.
That's a joke, right, right? They can't really be balking at including Alberto Gonzalez, can they?
In their defense, he got called out on it.
MLB and stats folk need to get together and establish some recognized stats. Once you use sabermetric stats, there is go going back. But maybe I (we) rely to heavily on them? Could they have problems?
What if ERA+ and OPS+ are crap... and we have been quoting them in all out discussions? Zone Ratings and all the rest?
Did we need an official MLB Sultant of Stats to 'bless' new stats, and qualify their strengths and weaknesses?
Over at Lohud, you have a bunch of people just screaming their 'opinions' back and forth. Its a zoo. How can we qualify our opinions if we don't have advanced stats to use? What's the point of discussions (unless you HAVE stats) unless you like arguing for it's own sake?
http://tinyurl.com/2c3t43
huge.
i'm choosing to believe it.
if it proves to be false, i'll be disappointed, but i can't help but smile at the moment.
78 Pettitte's return is great, but it is short-term. The Yankees can't run from a Santana trade, but can be more steadfast in their offer.
btw everyone I'm okay with giving up Melky... (sniff...)
We don't have to sweat it
'Cause we've got ____ _______
ESPN has picked it up, but they are just linking the Chronicle story. However, they now have quotes from Randy Hendricks, so it looks a bit more solid.
Honestly, there seems to be some confusion between Johan Santana and, say, Rick Rhoden. This is not a quick-fix, one-season patch with an aging pitcher.
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