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J. Sanchez mi PHI

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Hey, Big Spender
2007-11-16 22:41
by Cliff Corcoran

Has everyone lost their minds?

Look, we all knew Alex Rodriguez was going to get a ridiculous contract. He didn't get the $300 million guaranteed he was aiming for, but he came close enough, landing a record setting deal that has the greatest total worth ($275 million guaranteed) and greatest annual salary ($27.5 million) in baseball history and won't expire until Rodriguez is 42 years old.

We all knew Jorge Posada was going to get a ridiculous contract for a 36-year-old catcher, and he did, landing a four-year deal with an average annual salary of $13.1 million that won't expire until Posada is 40 years old.

One can justify overpaying those two because their value so greatly exceeds the other available players at their positions, and in Rodriguez's case, so greatly exceeds all other available players, period.

On top of those two deals, the Yankees offered Mariano Rivera a three-year, $45-million contract that would give him an annual salary nearly 43 percent higher than the next highest closer in baseball (Billy Wagner, $10.5 million) and would cover his age 38, 39, and 40 seasons. That's a legacy deal, a contract that has more to do with what Rivera has done for the Yankees than what he's likely to do over the next three seasons. It's the Yankees showing respect and saying "thank you" to the greatest closer the game has ever seen. Yet, somehow, Rivera thinks he deserves a fourth year despite the fact that he's coming off his worst season.

Maybe it's because Posada got a fourth year. Maybe it's because Hank Steinbrenner just couldn't keep his mouth shut (in confirming the Yankees offer to Rivera on Tuesday, Steinbrenner said, "He'd be, by $4 million a year, the highest-paid relief pitcher. To say that's a strong offer would be an understatement. . . . The ball's in their court. If they still want to look for more somewhere else, that's up to them." With those kind of diplomacy skills this guy could be president.) Whatever it is, Rivera is holding out for more, and I'm not sure the Yankees should give in.

To begin with, the ability to close ballgames is overrated. Just look at the Blue Jays. Two years ago, the Blue Jays gave B.J. Ryan a contract that everyone thought was ludicrous. (Ryan was 30 at the time of the deal, which was for $47 million over five years. Compare that to what Rivera seems to be asking for on the verge of his 38th birthday.) In the second year of the deal, Ryan's arm blew out on him so, after a brief period of trial and error, the Jays made Jeremy Accardo, a third-year reliever making the league minimum who was picked up in the Shea Hillenbrand dump trade the previous year, their closer. Accardo converted 30 of 35 save chances over the remainder of the season while posting a 2.79 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Compare that to Rivera's 2007 season in which he converted 30 of 34 save chances while posting a 3.15 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Similarly, Rule 5 draftee Joakim Soria was more effective closing games for the Royals than veteran free agent Octavio Dotel, and the A's got on just fine with journeyman LOOGY Alan Embree closing games when Huston Street hit the DL.

If you look around the majors, you'll see that, outside of Rivera, Wagner, Trevor Hoffman, and Jason Isringhausen, closers are either players who have yet to hit free agency (Accardo, Papelbon, Ray, Nathan, Jenks, Soria, K-Rod, Street, Putz, Otsuka, Lidge, Gregg, Chad Cordero, Capps, Valverde, Corpas, Saito, Hennessey) or underwhelming veterans who have found success in a role that's not nearly as demanding as the mythmakers would have you believe (Jones, Borowski, Reyes, Weathers, Dempster). It seems that the word is getting around that it's easier to make a new closer than pay an old one (we should be able to add Chad Qualls and Rafael Soriano to the former list for 2008, and it seems likely that the Tigers wouldn't have thrown $7 million at free agent Todd Jones if Joel Zumaya hadn't hurt his arm attempting to evade the wildfires in Southern California this fall).

Of course, the Yankees need good relief pitchers, period, and Mariano Rivera is still one of the best relief pitchers in baseball, even if he had his worst year as a closer this past season. He is, however, less than two weeks from his 38th birthday, and greatly overvalued because of his history and his role. Unlike Rodriguez and Posada, Rivera isn't worth such an extravagant contract relative to his peers. Francisco Cordero, who is currently a free agent, made just $5.4 million last year and is five years younger than Rivera. Cordero will certainly get a raise, but he won't get anything near $15 million a year, and I doubt he'll get more than three years either. The gap between Rivera and Cordero in the closers role is not nearly big enough to justify the giving Rivera a fourth year at what is likely to be double Cordero's salary.

Some think that Alex Rodriguez returned to the Yankees because he couldn't get the money he was after anywhere else. I'm not so sure. I still believe that Angels owner Arte Moreno would have given him $30 million per year (and until Rodriguez's signature is on his Yankee contract, I won't feel confident that his contract talks with the Yankees aren't just an elaborate plot to force Moreno's hand). I'm utterly convinced, however, that if Mariano Rivera shops himself around, he will not get a single offer to rival the three-year, $45-million deal the Yankees have offered him. Rivera has threatened to join Joe Torre in Los Angeles, but the Dodgers have a good, inexpensive bullpen (their closer, Takashi Saito, the highest paid of the bunch, earned an even million bucks in 2007). Any team would benefit from adding Mariano Rivera to their pen, but there's no reason for the Dodgers to pay Rivera much beyond the going rate for established closers, which seems to be about $7 million a year, and there's really not much reason for them to even offer that much. Heck, the highest paid starter on the Dodgers staff will make $12 million in 2008.

To their credit, the Yankees don't appear to be budging. Here's Hank again from yesterday: "[Rivera and his agent, Fern Cuza] haven't rejected it outright, as far as I know. It's pretty much known that they're seeking a fourth year, or more [money] for three years.I want him back, and that's why the offer is as high as it is. We don't have to change anything. Everyone in baseball knows it's a great offer; we've even gotten a couple of complaints about it."

If Rivera bolts, the Yankees can go after Cordero at half the cost, or they can let the kids audition for the job. I'm sure the Yankees have an Accardo of their own among the young arms on the bubble of the major league roster. The requirement is that the Yankees avoid the temptation to make Joba Chamberlain the closer in Rivera's absence. Yes, Chamberlain would excel in the role, but, as we've just seen, finding a closer isn't hard. Finding an ace starting pitcher, which Chamberlain has the potential to be as early as the 2008 season, is.
But wait, there's more. Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe reports that the Yankees are one of four teams (also the Angels, Cardinals, and Braves) who have offered Mike Lowell a four-year deal worth between $55 million and $60 million. On Wednesday I considered the possibility of signing Lowell to a Posada-like deal for $52 million over four years and concluded that it would be worth giving Lowell a four year deal in the $40-$44 million range, but classified even that as "overpaying." That, however, was for a team without Alex Rodriguez that would use Lowell as a third baseman. The Yankees want Lowell to play first base. A significant portion of Lowell's value comes from his defensive play at the hot corner. Move him to first base, a position he's never played in the major leagues, and he's a barely league-average bat (Lowell career: .280/.344/.468; average MLB 1B in 2007: .276/.357/.463) and a complete unknown on defense.

The most mind-blowing part of this idea, however, is the concept of a team that would play both Alex Rodriguez and Mike Lowell, a pair of legitimate Gold Glove winning defenders at shortstop and third base respectively, out of position to accommodate the erroneously gold-plated glove of Derek Jeter. If you ask me, the Yankees don't need a first baseman. Between Jason Giambi, Wilson Betemit, Shelley Duncan, Andy Phillips, and Juan Miranda, the Yankees should have the position covered just fine in 2008 and should save their money for a run at Mark Teixeira next winter.

Just for good measure, the Yankees gave Jose Molina, a career .243/.279/.345 hitter, a two-year, $4-million contract. As I wrote on Tuesday, I agree with the decision to bring Molina back, but that is on the assumption that Molina could be sent the way of Wil Nieves or Kelly Stinnett should he fail to provide the bare minimum replacement-level production over the first half of the season. Four mil is chump change to the Yankees, but I'm guessing it's enough to keep Molina in pinstripes through Opening Day at the new Yankee Stadium, no matter how much he might struggle this year.

Of course, this entire post is moot if Hank plans to out-do his father by running up a 2008 payroll that will dwarf Alex Rodriguez's ten-year contract (perhaps Papa George has some kind of wacky Brewster's Millions-type clause in his will). In reality, the Yankee payroll has been heading in the other direction in recent years as, according to Forbes, the team has been operating at a loss since 2004.

Comments (66)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-11-17 04:50:51
1.   OldYanksFan
I know Mo is not dumb, but I thought he was somewhat humble. 3/$45, for a reliever his age, could stand as the highest RP salary for a decade or more.

I can't understand it. He would be getting paid as much for 1 inning as ARod gets for 2 games. That sounds pretty royal to me.

I have read hundreds of comments and a number of articles. There are a few 'pay Mo whateve he likes', but in the by-and-large, people are stunned that he had to think for more then 2 seconds about this offer, and the word 'greedy' was used often.

When die hard Yankee fans start to say 'just let Mo go', you know that a lot of people are pissed. Mo is going to kill his own legacy. What the hell is going on with this guy?

2007-11-17 05:03:32
2.   monkeypants
1 Mo seems really to want the fourth year. I wonder if the Yankees made a mistake by offering so much for three years. If they had offered him, say, 3 years/36 million, they could have bumped the offer up to four years 48 million--and Mo might have taken it. But by starting at 3 years/45 million, they don't really have place to go. Maybe offer 4 years but "only" 50 million total--but then, would that be seen as an "insult"?
2007-11-17 05:04:25
3.   OldYanksFan
3 IIRC, they started at 3/$40.
2007-11-17 05:08:10
4.   OldYanksFan
While this contract for Mo isn't as large (in total) as ARods, the $$ and years are nuts. If they Yanks cave here, they will grossly overpay every decent kid that comes through the system to stay.

I couldn't see losing Posada, but more bacause it was truly irreplaceable. Frankly, I'm ready to let Mo go. In a business where Owners can be cut-throat, this is an example of player insanity. Giving in to Mo would be a very bad example.

2007-11-17 05:09:11
5.   OldYanksFan
DAMN! Hit the wrong button again. My writing is making me look like the village idiot.
2007-11-17 05:17:28
6.   monkeypants
3 4

They did start at 3/$40. Then they upped the offer to 3/$45. I wonder if the better move would have been instead to offer 4/$50.

But overall, I agree with your sentiment. On one level, we can argue that A-Rod, Posada, and Mo are all overpaid (and I do not mean this in a philosophical way, but only from a baseball perspective). However, we can also consider their value on a relative scale. In that case, A-Rod and Jorge are, frankly, worth more than Mo, simply because of the positions they play and the level at which they play them.

The Yankees should stand firm here, no doubt.

2007-11-17 05:34:29
7.   jeterian swing
It's amazing that we have reached the point where Mariano Rivera is viewed by Yankee fans as being greedier than A-Rod. What's more amazing is that this conclusion is so hard to dispute that it seems factual.

We'll (ideally) never know if A-Rod could have gotten more than the Yankees' offer, but any fan can plainly see that Mo will not get anything close to 3/45 anywhere else. Is there any team in baseball right now (besides the Yankees) that needs a closer? Is there any team in baseball right now (including the Yankees) that could justify spending what Mo is asking? His skillset+age+salary simply don't fit anyplace else -- if the Mets needed a closer, I could see Omar making a big offer, but the Mets already have the highest-paid closer in baseball on their payroll. Angels? K-Rod. Dodgers? Saito? Tigers? Jones. Red Sox? Papelbon. Cubs? ...well, the Cubs might make sense, if they really don't like Dempster and don't feel Marmol is ready and aren't thinking of re-signing Wood with the intention of having him close out games...but can they justify adding Mo's insane, irresponsible salary while ownership is still in flux?

So where else can he go? Milwaukee? He's left himself out on a limb here, and it's almost a little sad. Instead of making ridiculous threats and demands, he and Cash and Hank should be thinking of ways for him to accept the Yankees' offer without looking like he caved. And then he should fire Cuza, because if Boras misread the market, Cuza (and Mo, sadly) ignored the market entirely.

2007-11-17 05:43:01
8.   monkeypants
7 I don't think we need to view Mo as "greedier" than A-Rod. It is not an issue of who is greedier, but rather who has a better sense of his value in the MLB FA market (as you point out in your last paragraph).
2007-11-17 05:46:25
9.   Mattpat11
I just had a horrible nightmare where TJ Beam trotted out to close a division deciding game.
2007-11-17 05:58:34
10.   RIYank
I think he's seething. But because of something else, not because he thinks he deserves more money or even years. I just hope he doesn't back himself into a corner where he's forced to be humiliated or go elsewhere.
2007-11-17 06:29:33
11.   tommyl
MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that the Yankees have pulled their offer to Lowell off the table (thank G-d), due to being close on the A-Rod signing. Gotta say, that makes no sense if they really wanted him to play 1B.

As for Mo, I do think he's making a big mistake here. I'm unclear as to what he is seething about, unless he just doesn't like Hank. If he shops himself around he won't find a deal even close. If the Dodgers come even close to the Yankees deal, than that's even more reason we should be happy that Torre is gone. It shows that he'll convince his FO to be retarded in the name of getting "his guys." I love Mo, but my main motivation for signing him at this point is to keep Joba in the rotation. If Cash/Girardi would come out and say that Joba starts even without Mo, then I would be ok with letting him walk.

2007-11-17 06:34:45
12.   jeterian swing
8 I almost wonder if Mo and Cuza were depending on greater fan outrage and sympathy here: "Well if those spoiled Steinbrenner boys can afford to pay that fink A-Rod all that money, surely they can give the beloved Mariano a ridiculous and irresponsible contract!" Etc. Instead, public opinion seems to have swung exactly the other way and the market for closers is nonexistent (especially with the younger and very effective Francisco Cordero still available for half the price).

I agree, we don't "need" to attempt to interpret any player's intentions; I just meant that right now, the public probably perceives Mo as being somewhat greedy, and A-Rod as being somewhat selfless, and really, that's not an unfair perception, given the circumstances. If someone has advised Mo to hold out, that person is a fool and should be fired. If Mo has decided on his own to hold out, he is deluded and needs someone to step in and clarify the situation for him before his does real damage to his reputation. If, as 10 suggests, this is about something else entirely, something more insidious...then what? Where does he go from here?

2007-11-17 06:38:57
13.   OldYanksFan
Once the dust settles, on a slow, snowly day this winter, I would love to have a discussion on the financial and social ramifications the current FA system has wrought. I am basically a socialist at heart, but as I look at the last few years, and see some of the current negotiations going on, I can't help but think there is something very wrong with the current system.
2007-11-17 06:50:11
14.   jeterian swing
13 If you're a socialist, you should be outraged that the players today aren't being fairly compensated (at least, not across the league; the Yankees still pay fair salaries). In terms of overall percentage of revenue, baseball players are making LESS today than they were 15 years ago, even though revenues have skyrocketed. The following is excerpted from a fascinating recent Yahoo article on the subject (link to full story below):

In 1992, when Bud Selig took over as baseball's commissioner, the sport's gross revenues were $1.5 billion. Payrolls from that season added up to about $784 million, meaning 52.3 percent of baseball's money went back to the players. By 2001, the year following the bull-market offseason in which Alex Rodriguez signed his 10-year, $252 million deal, the money going toward players had increased to 56.1 percent, even with revenues at $3.5 billion.

Revenues didn't stop growing, jumping another billion dollars in the next four years. Salaries, though, nearly stagnated, and by 2005, owners were taking the majority of the profit, giving 48.7 percent back to players.

Today, the numbers are shocking. Baseball claims it will reap more than $6 billion in revenue this season, a number that nearly matches the mighty NFL. And yet the sum of the 30 MLB teams' opening day payrolls for 2007 was approximately $2,478,970,000 – about 41.3 percent of the gross revenues.

In contrast, the NFL paid its players $3.2 billion last season, more than 50 percent of its revenues.

So it's not necessarily that MLB players, individually, are underpaid. It's that compared to the percentages received by their predecessors, they are getting shortchanged big-time.

http://tinyurl.com/2kgumv

2007-11-17 07:05:08
15.   monkeypants
13 The problem is that the system is neither truly a free market, nor a socialist arragement. The owners decided years ago to go for a limited free agent system that guaranteed only a few major players would hit the market at the same time. This in turn drove up the value of individual players, leading to grosly exaggerated player salaries. Meanwhile, on the other side of the scale, the owners still have the "rights" over young players for six years, allowing them to be paid the league minimum, with no competition, regardless of player performance.

Overall, the system leads to gross inequalities in terms of player salary, often underpayment for current performce, and overpayment for past performance.

Worst of all (maybe), both "sides" are to blame. The owners have, in the end, made out pretty well (see 14 ). At the same time, the players--that is to say, the exalted fraternity of veterans--make out very well themselves. The only people who should want to change the system are the younger players who are not allowed to seel there services to the highest bidder until six years expire. But even they realize that if they stay in the league, there is a good chance for a big pay day in the future. Moreover, they would never want to cross the veterans, who also dominate the players unon.

So, as long as the owners make millions, and aging players can count on fat salaries because they bring "veteran presence" or "they did so much for the club in the past they deserve it" or simply "they paid their dues," there is little incentive to change the system.

In any case, I have a hard time getting worked up over how overpaid/underpaid people are--owners or players--when they make hundreds of thousands OR hundreds of millions of dollars playing a game.

2007-11-17 07:08:09
16.   monkeypants
14

"Today, the numbers are shocking. Baseball claims it will reap more than $6 billion in revenue this season, a number that nearly matches the mighty NFL. And yet the sum of the 30 MLB teams' opening day payrolls for 2007 was approximately $2,478,970,000 – about 41.3 percent of the gross revenues."

Interesting, but this does not prove that the owners are taking home more profit (though they probably are). It is possible that baseball teams spend a larger percentage of gross revenues on additional overhead (stadium renatals, staff, etc.) than do teams in the NFL. In other words, just because players take home 40% of gross income does not necessarily mean that owners take home all of the other 60%.

2007-11-17 07:18:22
17.   jeterian swing
16 Right, it's an incomplete analysis, but if players took home 56.1 percent of overall revenue in 2001 and 41.3 percent of overall revenue in 2007, one has to imagine that somewhere along the line, the players started getting shortchanged, and the owners started figuring out ways to pocket more money while spending less. (I would also assume that things like stadium-rental and staff costs remained more or less static, percentage-wise, no?) Believe me, I'm not crying poverty on behalf of the MLBPA here, but one can't deny the discrepancy in those figures.
2007-11-17 07:24:51
18.   monkeypants
17 Hard to say how static costs are. There have a been a rash of new, costly stadiums built since Bud took over the throne, er, office. On the other hand, many (all?) have been mostly publicly funded AND have gone hand-in-hand with a rise in attendance (and presumably income).

It would be interesting to see how much more (if any) teams spend on minor league and/or overseas development and scouting.

In general, though, you are almost surely correct.

2007-11-17 08:08:28
19.   OldYanksFan
I know things are relative and 'Fair' is not an absolute value. I personally would rather see a little of MLB salary money go to MiLB. And a $300,000 minimum is still not a bad wage. However, if the was a more 'modest' scale to salaries in general, the minumum could be higher.

If a plumber is making $80k/yr, that's a pretty good salary. To me, it doesn't matter if the owner is making a zillion. While many are born rich and handed over ownership (Hello H&H), many small business owners take great risks and work like dogs to make a successful business. I believe the part of Capitalism that rewards entrepreneurial success is a good one. I don't think 'rich' owners should 'abuse' the help, but I don't think comparing well paid employees to owners in right.

A baseball owner may be risking millions to buy a ballclub. Players have guaranteed salaries. I don't think what the owners make should be compared to what players make... but maybe compared to the price of tickets and going to a game.

At one time, the idea of unions was to insure 'fair' pay and conditions. I think the players union has far exceeded 'fair' by quit a bit.

How hard does the average American work to earn 40-50k annually? I think this should be considered when looking at ballplayers salaries. It's complicated, but it seems like many players make too much money. What, the average salary is close to $3m/yr?

I don't know. That seems like a good gig. I know they have special and unique skills, but so does a school teacher with 8 years of post HS education.

2007-11-17 08:18:22
20.   yankster
0 I think we are all forgetting the only complaint we've definitely heard from Mariano: They made me wait the whole season for an offer.

He's never mentioned publicly to my knowledge wanting an extravagant contract (unlike Arod who says he likes getting paid the most). He just wants some respect.

I suspect Mariano has already signed the paperwork and is off enjoying his off season. When he feels the Yankees have been hurt enough by the uncertainty he is causing (and it is hurting the Yankees to have to keep thinking about getting Cordero) he will send in his contract.

Rather than negotiating, I think he is punishing, and I don't see what's wrong with that. He had to be patient, and now we do too.

2007-11-17 08:36:23
21.   Simone
0 Glad to see that I'm not the only one still skeptical that all this negotiation is Alex using the Yankees for leverage.
2007-11-17 08:37:11
22.   RIYank
Why doesn't Cashman just go get Cordero? Is it that he wouldn't agree if he couldn't be The Closer?
2007-11-17 08:37:37
23.   Xeifrank
Luckily for the Yankees, they have enough money to eat these contract when/if they don't pan out due to age or other factors.
vr, Xei
2007-11-17 08:48:35
24.   Simone
19 If it doesn't matter to you that "the owner is making a zillion," then you are not a socialist. You are a capitalist. A socialist believes that labor should compensated by a fair share of the profits. As jeterian swing pointed out, baseball players are in fact not getting a substantial proportion of the profits.

Additionally, what the "average American" earns in other occupations is irrelevant to what baseball players earn. Like other pro athletes, baseball players have special skills that are highly valued so they should be paid according to the demand in their specific market. What is relevant what percentage of the profits that employers of average Americans pocket rather than increase their incomes or provide necessary benefits.

2007-11-17 09:28:24
25.   monkeypants
20 "Rather than negotiating, I think he is punishing, and I don't see what's wrong with that. He had to be patient, and now we do too. "

There are many, many things wrong with that. One should only "punish" someone who has done something wrong--did the team do anything wrong by waiting until the end of the season to negotiate?

To "punish" because you have not been shown "respect" (whatever that means in this context) is petty and spiteful.

By "punishing" the Yankees now, he runs the risk of influencing other personnel moves. Thus, in a fit a spite Mo may actually hurt the team (and thus his team mates).

Behaving in this manner may have personal, practical ramifications. If I was the Yankees FO, I would seriously contemplate looking elsewhere for the closer (and think, 15 million/year saved on Mo helps offset A-Rod's salaray). If Mo really wants to stay with the and also make the most money, he should just sign the deal. If he really believes he can get more money by playing hardball, then he should do so. But if he thinks he is going to make the team "suffer" by making them sweat, he is running a silly risk for no practical gain.

2007-11-17 09:30:06
26.   monkeypants
24 I'm not sure 40% is not a substantial portion of the profits. Perhaps it should be more--though I personally could give a damn how