Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Just for kicks and giggles, I plugged the words “Alex Rodriguez Yankees” into a Google search and in .36 seconds I was alerted that 10,529 stories existed with those keywords. It was a great way to see both the local and national landscape of headlines and angles of the next phase of this story that’s dominating the offseason, and also to see how the third baseman is being painted to the populace.
An interesting bit I found came from a newspaper in a city that has one professional sports team: Sacramento. The staff of the State Hornet compiled a list of possible destinations for A-Rod (nothing outside the obvious: the Cubs, Dodgers, Angels and Giants). Now when I say “interesting” I don’t necessarily mean “good.” There was no reporting involved; each writer presented a take on why A-Rod would “definitely” land with said team. One staffer, Alicia de la Garza, wrote about A-Rod going to the Angels and somehow forgot that he spent three years dwelling in the AL West basement with Texas before going to the Yankees.
“After playing seven years for the New York Yankees, third baseman Alex Rodriguez has opted out of his $252 million, 10-year contract. I need to take a timeout for a second.“
The timeout needed to be taken before that lead sentence was written. (I know I’m not perfect — my gaffe regarding the Girardi press conference last week was a bonehead move — but to make that basic of an error on the lead sentence of a story? It’s indicative of a lack of fact-checking in the industry.)
Anyway, spending the rest of this post to pick apart mistakes in other columns is not the goal here. What I found interesting was that Sacramento cared at all what happened to A-Rod.
Some other notes from the Land of the Obvious:
Brian Cashman Quote of the Week:
"I understand why people are asking. I'd ask. For the most part, we're going to try to stay the course and build around our young pitching as we move forward. But talk is cheap. Actions speak louder than words, so let's see where I'm standing come February."
This is classic Cash. He maintained the same even keel two years ago regarding Bubba Crosby and the center field position, and then right before the New Year, Johnny Damon was signed. In other words, don't rule out the big splash. The reporters haven't. They just haven't set up the possibility of it like they have in years past.
From what I've read, viewed and heard, we’re no further along in the A-Rod proceedings. To follow up on Bruce Markusen’s Abbott and Costello theme from yesterday’s “Third Base Derby” post, “I Don’t Know” actually is the third baseman. What we do know, though, is that it will be difficult to search for information on the topic that we either didn’t already know or project as far back as six weeks ago, when midges changed the momentum of the Yankees-Indians series.
Here's to a week of attending to real important business with the Yankees, like negotiating with Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera. Those stories will come out from hiding in the next few days.
Last year's third baseman, Lou Merloni, is a free agent. And turning 37 years old.
Jeff Baisley is the leading candidate, but he had a .716 OPS in AA at age 24, which leaves River Cats fans like Yankee fans wondering if their organization's GM can pull off a big splash and fill the hot corner.
ARod is the first domino to fall in a series of moves that will fill third base positions across baseball. So of course, they're interested in what ARod does in Sacramento!
Reading all the blogs, I must hold a minority view on the state of the Bombers. I strongly believe that they are best off keeping all three of the Rookies, including IPK, keeping Melky (he has value as Cano's buddy over and above his skills), and finding an internal solution for 3rd base.
The young pitchers can strengthen the bullpen, IPK, Hughes, Jobba can fill at least two spots in the starting rotation; and Wilson/Phillips can man 3rd adequately (no worse than Brosis).
I am so concerned that they will trade Melky and end up with another 30+ year old outfielder in his place, and affect Cano's production.
We don't need to trade for/sign aging "stars". We can develop our own.
Betemit/Phillips would probably be below average. Brosius was below average. Not a good idea to rely on them, not when nobody in the lineup is expected to improve save Cano (and maybe Melky, though he didn't last year).
People are trying to spin the Pro-Miggy faction as Anti-Prospects/Anti-Pitching. That's just not fair. The Yankees just lost the best player in the game, might lose the best hitting catcher of 2007, and probably just lost its second best (and most reliable in terms of IP) starter. Just making the playoffs will be tough unless something big happens.
What we need is + offense and + pitching.
So replacing ARod in kind is NOT as important as keeping/improving our pitching. Better defense can't hurt either.
Question. If we get a league average (on offense) 3rd baseman, and Po comes back, do we still have a + offense? Is so, sould we trade pitching for more offense?
I think because of the last 4 years, we are addicted to offense. The ARod/Giambi/Sheff/Matsui thing was sooooooo nice. We were feared! But our pitching ERA+ was still below average. Is this the model we want to continue to pursue?
Oh, with a league-avg 3B and Posada, yes, we still definitely have a + offense. It could still be ++ (by which I mean, top three or four in MLB), if the rest of the team performs like they did last year.
I see that nobody besides me is worried by this:
tinyurl.com/2qxdoo
The Tampa Bay XXXXX Rays have new uniforms! Uh oh.
First, the league average 3B (LA3B) hit .784 OPS this year (a number which A-Rod himself inflated some). So, an "average" 3B last year hit just about the same as Tejada, or a tad better. What LA3B are even available? If the Tejada is the second best option at third (as was posited a couple of threads ago), then it is quite likely that the team will be settling for sub-average production from the position next year.
But indeed, let's assume that the LA3B is brought in. Posada's numbers will decline next year, either because he leaves or because of regression. Matsui will probably decline, and he will also likely gum up a good deal of the DH spot, where he will be a less than average producer. 1B was a sinkhole last year, and it will only improve (it seems) if Giambi comes back to full strength and plays a number of games there (as Cashman claims). Damon will hit below average for a LF. Jeter will hit about the same (his overall numbers were quite consistent with his career numbers--he was just streakier last year). Who knows what Abreu will provide in RF next year.
I expect Cano to hit the same or better (which is very good), and I expect Melky to be about the same (OK for a CF, but not great). I don't expect freaky miracles like Duncan hitting a ton of HRs or Minky-of-the-last-three-weeks to be reborn. Overall, I see a lot of soft spots in this lineup.
The offense will be average, but I'm not sure it will be plus. This is not solely because of the loss of A-Rod--the loss of one player does nto have that much of impact. But last year's offense was floated in large part by two remarkable performances, neither of which will be repeated next season.
But right now there are holes at 1b and 3b; Giambi, Damon, and Matsui have all shown some signs of decline, and are a year older now; Posada won't ever repeat last year, and may well turn old in a hurry; Abreu and Giambi are gone after next year. I don't see a + offense as anything like a sure thing, and within the next couple of years they're going to have a lot of players to replace. Frankly, a young offensive anchor - even if he's 1b/dh within a couple of years - seems more important to me right now than a fourth starter.
Do you guys 7 8 really think the Yankees will score under 800 runs in 2008? That would be very surprising.
Falling from 1st to 10th would probably coincide with falling from 2nd in the division to 3rd.
So, I couldn't tell from what you said, whether you do believe that the Yankees' offensive production will fall below 800 runs this year.
1 Lou Merloni is available???? What are we witing for?!!
Why would Abreu improve? He hasn't for four years now.
Are the old and oft-injured Damon, Matsui, and Giambi supposed to improve? Or Jeter, who showed his age for the first time towards the end of last year? Or Posada (if re-signed), who played way above his career averages (thanks to a BABIP 50 points higher than usual) and is an old catcher?
Someone has to make up for Arod's production. Cano, Wang, and 3 rookies can only do so much.
I am not in favor of changing the emphasis to pitching at the cost of hitting. But I was responding to the question of whether the Yankees have a "+ offense" without A-Rod. I said they do. But not a "++ offense".
The Yankees will certainly be in on him. Davidoff says a package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and a prospect wouldn't cut it, even though those players are very valuable. The Twins are one of few teams that actually feel good about their pitching, so the focus is on acquiring a star position player. With that in mind, they'd demand Robinson Cano from the Yankees.
Who's going to give up a star position player for Santana? I predict that the Twins will end up keeping him and he'll hit the FA market like a cannonball.
Can anyone else relate?
I wonder if NoMass has Pettitte chalked up as another Torre loss.
This is getting fugly.
If he really is finished, then one hopes the team:
1. Disavows any notion of moving Joba to the pen.
2. Thinks very hard before trading any pitching depth (IPK is now the #4 starter at worst).
3. Thinks long and hard about using next season as a true transition year and plnning more seriously for 2009.
Well, entirely inaccurate words, but whatever.
SG at RLYW says:
"If they retain Posada and replace Rodriguez with Betemit/Ensberg I'd probably put them at 890 runs or so"
As to Abreu, he says:
"Abreu's baseline CAIRO projection on offense expects a bounceback from last season"
So, again, if a lot of bad things happen the Yankees offense will be hurt. Duh.
Picking up Ensberg- hmm, sounds a lot like a trade (unless he isn't offered a contract). Which is exactly what people have been advocating. The in-house solutions aren't going to cut it.
"So, again, if a lot of bad things happen the Yankees offense will be hurt. Duh. "
No. The offense has already been hurt. Duh. (See? I can be 9 years old too!)
A lot of good things-i.e. Posada repeating his unusually high BABIP, Cano improving (though he didn't last year), Melky improving (though he didn't last year), and Jeter/Matsui/Damon/Giambi avoiding the injuries that bugged them last year- for the Yankees to approach last year's offensive production. Shelley Duncan replacing Mink's AB is a start. Getting a 3B who doesn't hit like a RP vs. lefties is probably next on Cash's to-do list.
Eh, why bother.
Given what you say in (3.), where do Rivera and Posada fit in? Do they have a role on a strong contending team in 2009? That is a genuinely tough call.
If things stay the same, or follow the most logical, predictable course (i.e. players past their primes do worse), the Yankee offense has been hurt. No way around that. I hope Cashman doesn't rely on luck and unprecedented improvements as much as you do.
You're right, a genuinely tough call.
Meanwhile Mo and Posada are going to hit the market. I guess, if I were in the Yankees' shoes, I would make high reasonable offers to both of them. If another team beats those offers, don't raise the offers, and let them go, if, at that time, it looks like Pettitte is gone and the cost of replacing A-Rod is still prohibitively high.
If Po come back, in 2008, our offense =
minus: All of ARod
minus: some of Po
plus:: ARods replacement
plus:: Maybe Melky, Cano, Giambi
Everyone else should be similar. Mats, JD, Jetes, Abreu all have average type years... maybe a little below average. Po is the only one who played way over his head.
So if you figure the MinusPO = PlusNewGuyat3rd, our net loss = ARod.
So how many runs did we score last year?
How many was ARod directly responsible for?
Subtract those and you get 2008 +/-.
Is my logic flawed?
If we beef up the pen, we should have a much better RA, considering how bad the 1st half of 2007 was.
It's not a killer team, but one of the better ones. If we can actually get a + player at 1st and/or 3rd, we should be in good shape.
Personally, I want Bonds. He will put us over the top. His bat at cleanup changes the whole dynamic to how they pitch to the 3 spot, what the 5 spot will see, and the runs Bonds will produce.
Giambi is realy the wildcard. Whenever I write him off, he comes back strong. Whenever I argue he should start, he gets hurt or slumps. I guess that I have run out of patience/faith with him.
If he comes back, he must either hit ferociously as the DH (and thus drive Matsui/JD to the bench), or hit well enought o play 1B. The latter is preferrable, but is it realistic? If not, then Giambi comes back as the DH and teh team STILL has a hole a 1B. And, whatever improvement you expect from Matsui/JD will be mitigated because at least one of the three will have to ride the pine.
My point is that our O production should be around 2007 minus ARod. And I believe Cash will add a bat of 2. Bonds puts us back to being a (not the) top offensive team (assuming we sign Po).
There is a lot of money. Next year Moose, Giambi, Pavlov come off the books. After 2009, our payroll (not counting any big signings) should be under 100m. We have money to spend. Cashman will not sit on his hands. Hopefully, like the last 2 years, he will not overspend on duds, but wait for 'worthy' FAs.
The key will really be how good our young arms are.
Guess 890 RS is our baseline. Too bad Ensberg will cost us Joba.
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