Seems to me that this is the Rickey trade all over again.

I'd trade Melky & Kennedy for him. However, given the seemingly endless number of arms the Fish seem to come up with, if they really want IPK, I'd have to wonder why.

a trade you HAVE to make? with all due respect, you must be kidding. replacing a-rod with a fat lazy partyboy and giving up one of our three prize prospects is going to get us nowhere. the only way this team moves forward is with pitching. it's basically like have a much worse version of a-rod at third and giving away a pitcher and our center fielder for free

Can Cabrera still play 3b? Will Betemit get his conditioning act together so he could play 3b?

I don't think it's a trade you have to make but it's one the Yanks likely will make. They're droolin' over Miguel Cabrera.

I hate to see the Yanks part with their best outfielder, a homegrown kid who is a tremendous value at this point in his career, a kid who reminds me of Bernie (who everybody wanted to trade at his age).

Stuff-wise, he doesn't appear as good off the bat, but Kennedy could turn out to be possibly as good if not better than Hughes and Joba as a starter. All these guys are young, and it's hard to say who will have the best and longest career. Give the kid a chance before letting him go. Make Kennedy untouchable this winter, along with Hughes and Joba.

I think it's too high a price to pay for a 1b, because that's where they'd eventually have to move Chubsy Ubsy.

Miguel Cabrera seems to have too much Manny in him for my taste. But if you can hang with Manny, you'll have no problem with Miguel Cabrera.
I say, no thanks, too much fer Chubsy Ubsy.

I've just returned from cleaning my pants. Here's a quote from Will Carroll on BP Unfiltered:

"* Alex Rodriguez isn't headed anywhere yet, but he can cross Miami off his list. He's not one to give a hometown discount and Jeffrey Loria's not raising payroll. That means that one of the team's big two is gone and everyone's expecting it to be Miguel Cabrera. "He's at the end of his time at 3B," the baseball source told me, "but he's still good enough to play 1B. They won't get quite as much as [Jon Daniels] did for Mark Teixeira, but they're looking for a different payoff." The rumored asking price is three players - one pitcher and position player that are under three years of service time and "solid ink-'em-in guys." The other would be a "plus prospect, not the best guy on the team, but useful. The Marlins will probably look for a slugger.""

Christ, this makes it sound like Miggy could be had for IPK, Melky, and maybe Tabata or AJax or something. Throw in Horne or whatever. My god. If you can get Cabrera without losing Cano, Joba, Hughes, or Wang, it's hard to say no.

4 Cabrera seems to have not only too much Manny in him for my taste, but that side of Sidney Ponson is also unappealing for the price.

The only reason I wouldn't do a trade for Cabrera is if the rumors are true that the Giants are shopping Lincecum. Then put a lawn chair at third for all I care.

5 I would trade Kennedy(who I like a lot), Melky, and b-level prospect for Cabrera. I wouldn't give up Joba, Hughes, Cano, or Wang.

yankz has convinced me of cabrera's worth - even if he has to move from 3b to 1b - he's still one of the best hitters for a 1b, and it's not like there are many other options for 1b. so worst thing is cabrera is the 1b and we go after a 3b with a good glove and average bat in the next 2 years if betemit is crap.

now the concern. what is the price? according to keith law, the marlins like power pitchers. i'm guessing that every team is quite aware of the yankees needs - aware of the desire to continue to go the playoffs with ws as the goal etc. teams already try to bleed they yankees as is - is anyone going to take ipk or will they refuse to deal unless they get hughes or even joba? cashman could be in a tough position - i hope he finds at least 1 or 2 idiots somewhere.

7 i think the giants are just stupid enought to do it - so we might as well get a matching set for ss

Reposted from the last thread with apologies:

Here's what I know about Miggy...he is 24; has had a 150 OPS+ in each of the last three seasons; and is still years away from his prime. If he can do that with no work ethic, just imagine if matures with age?

I think Cabrera is a no-brainer for the Yankees, and hope Cashman is posturing when he says IPK is off the table. The Yankees have three potential starting prospects, and IPK is probably the worst among them. Considering that the Yankees have so many other arms on the farm, but only a few position players, there is no way you can pass up on a lethal bat like Cabrera.

Think of it this way...the Yankees aren't likely to develop a position player as good as Cabrera over the next 20 years. So, why give up the chance to acquire someone who at 24 would still have as bright a future as any top prospect in the game?

Given the fact that at the moment our pitching rotation for 2008 looks like this:

The Ghost of Mussina
Wang
Chamberlain assuming Mo get's his ass with the program
Hughes
Kennedy

I'm not really sure we should so breezily talk about trading Kennedy let alone Hughes for Cabrera.

What I saw from Kennedy last season leads me to believe he can be a reliable solid #3, and those kinds of pitchers don't A) grow on trees or B) Come cheaply.

So pawn Kennedy or Hughes off for Cabrera if you want, but I think it's a hellaciously bad idea.

I can't believe this is even a question. You have to make this trade A guy who is a perennial AS and MYP candidate for a couple of might be's? IPK might be great or good. Melky is a nice centerfielder. Tabata might come back from his injury and might be good when he does. But Cabrera has put up 150 OPS+ for the last three seasons. And he's only a year older than Melky! Melky does not hit much and I don't think we should value his defense so much that it precludes us from obtaining a middle-of-the-order force, even if that force has to play 1B (where we have no good options anyway, and don't have any in the next year or two so far as I can see, Miranda notwithstanding). Moreover, I don't think his home-grownedness should be a factor in whether we keep Melky. Who cares? It's nice, and it helps make the case that the Yanks don't simply hire mercenaries, but what should be the deciding factor is whether a given player will help win games. That's it. Feel good stories are only nice if you also win. I think Miguel Cabrera has more to contribute to that than Melky Cabrera. And I do have faith in the pitching prospects as a group, but I don't have faith that all of them are going to be useful this year or going forward. It seems to me that likely one of them will be less important than the rest. My guess is that's going to be IPK. But hell, I would consider moving Hughes in this deal if need be. Consider.

The farm system is an asset like any other: it should be used to maximize profit (in this case the profit is winning games). If you take part of your assets and say that you won't sell them for anything, you are limiting your potential profit. Of course, you have to make the RIGHT moves, but this seems to be one where the risk/reward is worth it. After all, all of these prspects are risks as of now, right? So I will take the risk of the fat guy who has proven for years that he can crush the ball over the guys who have either had a short-season or relatively unspectacular careers to date.

hey guys, we should consider the possibility that IPK might end up having a better career than joba or phil. we just can't make those predictions this early. better to hold on to all three

11 and 13 I completely agree and I'm a little surprised that this is even controversial. If it's IPK, Melky and Tabata, you have to do it. Cabrera is a talent an offensive talent on par with Pujols. If there's any exaggeration in that statement it's only slight. In any case, we know what he can do at the major league level. Given his age, his salary, he is probably in the top 3-5 of all players in terms of value.

14 you also have to consider that all three of these pitchers might not have great, or even good careers. The truth is that we know a lot more about what Cabrera can do at the major league level than what Joba, Hughes or IPK can do.

14 Are you serious? Of course we can, GMs have to do this every day. Hughes and Joba are better prospects than IPK, both with higher ceilings and have already shown they can perform at the MLB level. There is nothing about Kennedy, who I really like, that says he might possibly match either Hughes or Joba.

12 I agree. Miggy Cabrera may be an all-world talent, but if the last 4 years have taught us anything, its that the Yanks need damn good pitching, and not an all-world offense, to succeed.

Last year the Yanks scored 968 runs and allowed 777, a differential of +191. Take A-Rod out for Betemit, adjust Jeter and Melky and Cano up a bit, Posada down some, and a healthy Giambi, and I think the offense as constructed today can score 870 runs, no problem.

To keep the differential the same, the Yanks would have to drop that 777 RA to 679 RA. The only way that happens is by keeping, and using, Joba, Hughes, and IPK (and improving the bullpen a little).

What's the point in scoring 968 runs again if the pitching is so poor it allows almost 800 runs?

BTW, note that the World Champions scored 867 runs last year, but allowed only 657.

No to Miggy.

If Miguel Cabrera is fat and lazy send every player in the clubhouse a crate of Oreos and a La-Z-Boy. The guy has played in 157+ games 4 years in a row and the most similar player to him on Baseball-Reference thru age 24 is Hank Aaron. #2-4 most similar are Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Robinson, and Orlando Cepeda. Cepeda is a good analogy because Cepeda got a lot of BS press about being lazy too and the Giants traded him for Ray Sadecki. I'm sure Sadecki was gritty as hell. Cepeda was only great.

18 "
To keep the differential the same, the Yanks would have to drop that 777 RA to 679 RA. The only way that happens is by keeping, and using, Joba, Hughes, and IPK (and improving the bullpen a little)."

The problem is that you are thinking only of next year. In the longer run, where are the runs going to come from, after Giambi's option is turned down, and Posada ages, and Jeter turns 36, and there are no position players (save Tabata) in the pipeline?

Picking up Cabrera would be a great move--not only because of his offense, but because of his age.

"BTW, note that the World Champions scored 867 runs last year, but allowed only 657."

Yes, so their run differential was better than the Yanks'. This suggests that the solution is to increase the run differential, not contract it (or keep it the same) in the name of defense.

Slightly off topic - anyone else start to panic when they read this bit at the end of Kepner's piece on Cabrera?

"The Yankees need help in the bullpen, and a name to remember is the right-hander LaTroy Hawkins, who had a 3.42 earned run average for Colorado last season. Hawkins, 34, has pitched in at least 60 games for eight consecutive seasons."

NO please just say NO to old, overpriced, free agent relievers who can't strike guys out and last pitched well in the AL in 2003.

ny2ca2dc , yes, i am serious. the majority of young pitchers do NOT make it in the majors ...many of them from injuries, som to other factors. just because joba and hughes have a "higher ceiling" doesn't guarantee that they will have a better career.

12 18 Lets not ignore the rest of the farm now - for 08 you've got Horne, Clippard, and the rest of the 07 Trenton crew, plus maybe Brackman and/or Humberto Sanchez. Many have higher upsides than Kennedy. Betances is still a ways away, but has high upside as well.

The yanks have pitching in reserve throughout the minors, IPK is replaceable, Miggy Cabrera is all world.

imilar Batters through Age 24

Compare Stats

1. Hank Aaron (950) *
2. Ken Griffey (917)
3. Frank Robinson (911)
4. Orlando Cepeda (910)
5. Hal Trosky (902)
6. Joe Medwick (894)
7. Al Kaline (893)
8. Mickey Mantle (892)
9. Andruw Jones (882)
10. Vladimir Guerrero (879)

Man, that would be terrible if the Yankees added a guy like that.

Melky is fairly expendable, especially if the Yankees turn around and sign Andruw Jones or Aaron Rowand (but please, no Torii Hunter). IPK looks like a solid pitching prospect, but I think all of us have seen enough to know that TINSTAAPP. IPK could go on to have a solid career, but so could Horne, and Marquez, and Sanchez, and even Ty Clip. The Yankees' area of strength right now is pitching prospects. Since I expect Pettitte to be back with the Yankees next year, it would mean that Kennedy would not see much time in the majors in 2008. By 2009, all the pitching prospects I mentioned would be major league ready as well.

As for Cabrera's weight, it didn't seem to prevent him from hitting .320/.401/.525 last year. Those kinds of numbers play at any position, though granted they are otherworldly at third base. If he has to move to first base- so what?

It makes the 2008 Yankees much better, and it makes the 2009-2015 much better. Why is there any opposition in the world to this trade?

Remember how the Yankees' season turned around when Melky was made starting CF?

Just WHO will play CF if Melky is included in a trade for Miggy? Do they go after Rowand? (I sure hope so .... I love him).

22 Hughes are Joba already have made the majors, and are better prospects in every sense than Kennedy. The rest of what you're stating is truisms.

20 Actually, my point re the Sox's run differential is that instead of clubbing opponents to death, and hoping the pitching is good enough - which is what the Yanks have been doing since 2003 because the pitching has been so bad - you can beat them soundly with a fewer runs scored by not allowing as many runs - which is how the Yanks won from 1996-2003.

With the caveat that anything can happen, which is preferable - having one incredible hitter for the next 10 years - a poor defender who might be limited to DH for the last half of that deal - or having 3 above-average to incredible pitchers for the next 10 years?

I think the Yanks will be able to fill in the offense. Hitters are much easier to find and develop, and more predictable. Good pitching, in contrast, is unpredictable and hard to come by.

25 Um, the Yankees' season turned around when a different Miggy was banished and when the right fielder and second baseman remembered how to hit...

I wouldn't mind Rowand, but I'd prefer Andruw Jones.

25 Andrew Jones is looking better and better - Andrew is a type B free agent, if you can believe that, so he costs only money - Assuming the FO can be creative with the roster & positioning, Andrew is a really really tempting target.

27 But, right now, the Yankees' area of strength is pitching prospects. You deal from an area of strength to fill an area of weakness. The closest any of the Yankees' hitting prospects is Brett Gardner, and he may hit a home run once a decade (and it would probably be inside-the-park). Tabata, Jackson, and Suttle are all at least two or three years away, and none of them has shown tremendous power either.

Also, this: "having one incredible hitter for the next 10 years - a poor defender who might be limited to DH for the last half of that deal - or having 3 above-average to incredible pitchers for the next 10 years?"

Is a false dichotomy- we're not talking about trading all THREE of them to the Marlins, just one, and the one with the lowest ceiling. Horne could step in next year and give the Yankees what IPK gave them this year.

Of course, what we're all missing in debating this trade is that Beinfest would never go for it. The Red Sox could offer Lester, Ellisbury, and Carter and Cabrera would be on a plane to Boston before Epstein even finished the sentence.

BTW, I'm not saying that it would be horrible if the Yanks got Cabrera. I'm just saying, like Schteeve, that we've heard this song before, and maybe we want to think about it before we hear it again.

I would trade IPK and Melky and _____ for Cabrera (where the blank is anyone but Hughes, Joba, or Tabata). However, I do not think that's enough to get it done.

By how much are we supposed to discount hitting stats accumulated in the inferior league?

Count me with the pro-Miggy crew.
I don't care that he's got a weight problem unless it's likely to affect his hitting. If he's got a little Manny in him, I count that as a plus. The fact that he thinks the Yankees have "too many rules" does bother me a little (even though they do).

Lincecum looks like a stud. But the history of pitchers moving from the NL to the AL has not been encouraging.

30 31 We're actually thinking the same thing! =)

(Though I think the Sox would have to offer more than Lester and Ellsbury - Buchholz too, or another of their young power arms, since Lester isn't exactly a power arm.)

32 what about offensive stats accumulated in a pitcher's park?

There is no way in hell that Theo is trading Lester, Ellisbury, and Carter for Cabrera. Out of the question. (I hope to god I'm wrong, though.)

Oh, and as for an OF replacement for Melky: not a big issue, I think. I think Melky is a great guy, and he's really cheap. But replacing his baseball ability from the current FA class would be easy. Keep Tabata and Jackson on the back burner, and we could stand a couple of years of an aging outfield. Ageing. Aging. Hm.

27

It takes at least 3 great prospects to find one great ML pitcher (depending on the organization).

I'm thinking back to the Mets' pinning their hopes on the highly touted trio of Pulsipher, Isringhausen and Wilson a decade ago.

Daily News:

Brian Cashman met with the Marlins at about 6 p.m. last night at the GM meetings. No offers were made, but a source with knowledge of the situation said the Marlins made it clear that the Yankees would have to include either Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy in any trade for Cabrera, something the Yankees are not willing to do.
---------

So maybe that possibility was short-lived?

32 2007 NL Adjusted OPS+
Jones-ATL 166
Pujols-STL 157
Fielder-MIL 156
Wright-NYM 150
Cabrera-FLA 150

Cabrera was 50% better than the average hitter in the NL last year. Also whatever tick down you give him for being in the NL would be countered by the uptick you need to give him for compiling those stats at Dolphins Stadium.

Johnny Damon, $$$, IPK, Cano, Wang, Betemit & potluck FOR Cabrera, Willis & Uggla

The Marlins get box office (Damon), one established starter (Wang), one top SP prospect (IPK), one solid prospect (Betemit) and a cheap, younger All-Star 2B with more pop. They upgrade at 4 roster spots and downgrade at only 1.

The Yankees get a young slugger that can play 3B/OF, a 25 year old former star LHSP coming off his worst year, and an everyday 2B. The lose zero roster depth (Cabrera can play 3B/OF), regain a little RH balance in the lineup, and take Dontrelle Willis's money and inconsistency back for Wang's steady, low-cost excellence.

I think any Miguel Cabrera deal is easier to do if it's a bigger deal ala Beckett AND Lowell. Think big and there are fair deals to be made that meet both teams needs.

I agree with 18 to a certain degree. While I don't think that scoring that many runs is as easy as you make it out to be, I don't think 3b is the priority right now.

Hughes and Chamberlain need to be UNTOUCHABLE! In order for any team to win the world series they need to have pitching. How can we be so blind to the teams needs? This has been the problem for years now and we finally have two guys who look primed to become star pitchers and you guys are ready to trade him for someone that Giambi can have farting contests with.

Cabrera is an all-world talent and in the Yanks lineup he will put up career numbers. However, guys who don't work hard get eaten up in NY and pitching is our biggest need.

As far as Melky is concerned, who plays CF if you trade him? Signing Hunter or Rowand isn't a given. Damon doesn't cover as much ground in center as he used to. You'll be trading offense at one position for defense at two or more positions depending on who you have to move around. Melky is on pace to be a superstar and he won't be 24 until next August.

37 All the more reason to use one as trade bait while his value is highest.

I'm really finding this a bizarre discussion. 31 , no, we haven't heard this song before. When was the last time we heard about trading our third-best pitching prospect for a 24-year-old who's one of the very best hitters in the game? 12 , given the fact that our current third baseman is Wilson