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Chubb Chubb Rock
2007-11-07 05:46
by Alex Belth
Note: The Bronx Banter blog has moved to bronxbanterblog.com.

The Yankees will offer Alex Rodriguez arbitration. Joel Sherman has more on the story.

Meanwhile, the Yankees met with the Marlins last night to talk about Miguel Cabrera. Joe Girardi, who is at the GM meetings, told the Times:

"He's a great player, a smart player," said Girardi, who managed Cabrera in 2006. "He really understands the game of baseball. I was impressed in how mature he was as a hitter at a young age, his approach on a daily basis. I did not have any problems with him. He worked hard for me."

Cabrera is an amazing hitter and an indifferent fielder who has developed a reputation for being a fat slob who likes to party. That is the major concern. Will he have a great career or become a major disappointment? The Yankees say that they are not interested in moving Joba, Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy, but why wouldn't you trade Kennedy (or even Hughes) along with Melky in a package deal for a talent like Cabrera? Unless you think Cabrera is a complete nutcase, isn't that a trade you have to make?

Comments (164)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-11-07 06:07:51
1.   Raf
Seems to me that this is the Rickey trade all over again.

I'd trade Melky & Kennedy for him. However, given the seemingly endless number of arms the Fish seem to come up with, if they really want IPK, I'd have to wonder why.

2007-11-07 06:08:57
2.   mike eff
a trade you HAVE to make? with all due respect, you must be kidding. replacing a-rod with a fat lazy partyboy and giving up one of our three prize prospects is going to get us nowhere. the only way this team moves forward is with pitching. it's basically like have a much worse version of a-rod at third and giving away a pitcher and our center fielder for free
2007-11-07 06:13:41
3.   Raf
Can Cabrera still play 3b? Will Betemit get his conditioning act together so he could play 3b?
2007-11-07 06:16:33
4.   Sliced Bread
I don't think it's a trade you have to make but it's one the Yanks likely will make. They're droolin' over Miguel Cabrera.

I hate to see the Yanks part with their best outfielder, a homegrown kid who is a tremendous value at this point in his career, a kid who reminds me of Bernie (who everybody wanted to trade at his age).

Stuff-wise, he doesn't appear as good off the bat, but Kennedy could turn out to be possibly as good if not better than Hughes and Joba as a starter. All these guys are young, and it's hard to say who will have the best and longest career. Give the kid a chance before letting him go. Make Kennedy untouchable this winter, along with Hughes and Joba.

I think it's too high a price to pay for a 1b, because that's where they'd eventually have to move Chubsy Ubsy.

Miguel Cabrera seems to have too much Manny in him for my taste. But if you can hang with Manny, you'll have no problem with Miguel Cabrera.
I say, no thanks, too much fer Chubsy Ubsy.

2007-11-07 06:17:52
5.   ny2ca2dc
I've just returned from cleaning my pants. Here's a quote from Will Carroll on BP Unfiltered:

"* Alex Rodriguez isn't headed anywhere yet, but he can cross Miami off his list. He's not one to give a hometown discount and Jeffrey Loria's not raising payroll. That means that one of the team's big two is gone and everyone's expecting it to be Miguel Cabrera. "He's at the end of his time at 3B," the baseball source told me, "but he's still good enough to play 1B. They won't get quite as much as [Jon Daniels] did for Mark Teixeira, but they're looking for a different payoff." The rumored asking price is three players - one pitcher and position player that are under three years of service time and "solid ink-'em-in guys." The other would be a "plus prospect, not the best guy on the team, but useful. The Marlins will probably look for a slugger.""

Christ, this makes it sound like Miggy could be had for IPK, Melky, and maybe Tabata or AJax or something. Throw in Horne or whatever. My god. If you can get Cabrera without losing Cano, Joba, Hughes, or Wang, it's hard to say no.

2007-11-07 06:19:26
6.   Sliced Bread
4 Cabrera seems to have not only too much Manny in him for my taste, but that side of Sidney Ponson is also unappealing for the price.
2007-11-07 06:21:59
7.   vockins
The only reason I wouldn't do a trade for Cabrera is if the rumors are true that the Giants are shopping Lincecum. Then put a lawn chair at third for all I care.
2007-11-07 06:22:49
8.   rsmith51
5 I would trade Kennedy(who I like a lot), Melky, and b-level prospect for Cabrera. I wouldn't give up Joba, Hughes, Cano, or Wang.
2007-11-07 06:23:00
9.   ms october
yankz has convinced me of cabrera's worth - even if he has to move from 3b to 1b - he's still one of the best hitters for a 1b, and it's not like there are many other options for 1b. so worst thing is cabrera is the 1b and we go after a 3b with a good glove and average bat in the next 2 years if betemit is crap.

now the concern. what is the price? according to keith law, the marlins like power pitchers. i'm guessing that every team is quite aware of the yankees needs - aware of the desire to continue to go the playoffs with ws as the goal etc. teams already try to bleed they yankees as is - is anyone going to take ipk or will they refuse to deal unless they get hughes or even joba? cashman could be in a tough position - i hope he finds at least 1 or 2 idiots somewhere.

2007-11-07 06:26:52
10.   ms october
7 i think the giants are just stupid enought to do it - so we might as well get a matching set for ss
2007-11-07 06:31:11
11.   williamnyy23
Reposted from the last thread with apologies:

Here's what I know about Miggy...he is 24; has had a 150 OPS+ in each of the last three seasons; and is still years away from his prime. If he can do that with no work ethic, just imagine if matures with age?

I think Cabrera is a no-brainer for the Yankees, and hope Cashman is posturing when he says IPK is off the table. The Yankees have three potential starting prospects, and IPK is probably the worst among them. Considering that the Yankees have so many other arms on the farm, but only a few position players, there is no way you can pass up on a lethal bat like Cabrera.

Think of it this way...the Yankees aren't likely to develop a position player as good as Cabrera over the next 20 years. So, why give up the chance to acquire someone who at 24 would still have as bright a future as any top prospect in the game?

2007-11-07 06:34:56
12.   Schteeve
Given the fact that at the moment our pitching rotation for 2008 looks like this:

The Ghost of Mussina
Wang
Chamberlain assuming Mo get's his ass with the program
Hughes
Kennedy

I'm not really sure we should so breezily talk about trading Kennedy let alone Hughes for Cabrera.

What I saw from Kennedy last season leads me to believe he can be a reliable solid #3, and those kinds of pitchers don't A) grow on trees or B) Come cheaply.

So pawn Kennedy or Hughes off for Cabrera if you want, but I think it's a hellaciously bad idea.

2007-11-07 06:38:46
13.   alterity
I can't believe this is even a question. You have to make this trade A guy who is a perennial AS and MYP candidate for a couple of might be's? IPK might be great or good. Melky is a nice centerfielder. Tabata might come back from his injury and might be good when he does. But Cabrera has put up 150 OPS+ for the last three seasons. And he's only a year older than Melky! Melky does not hit much and I don't think we should value his defense so much that it precludes us from obtaining a middle-of-the-order force, even if that force has to play 1B (where we have no good options anyway, and don't have any in the next year or two so far as I can see, Miranda notwithstanding). Moreover, I don't think his home-grownedness should be a factor in whether we keep Melky. Who cares? It's nice, and it helps make the case that the Yanks don't simply hire mercenaries, but what should be the deciding factor is whether a given player will help win games. That's it. Feel good stories are only nice if you also win. I think Miguel Cabrera has more to contribute to that than Melky Cabrera. And I do have faith in the pitching prospects as a group, but I don't have faith that all of them are going to be useful this year or going forward. It seems to me that likely one of them will be less important than the rest. My guess is that's going to be IPK. But hell, I would consider moving Hughes in this deal if need be. Consider.

The farm system is an asset like any other: it should be used to maximize profit (in this case the profit is winning games). If you take part of your assets and say that you won't sell them for anything, you are limiting your potential profit. Of course, you have to make the RIGHT moves, but this seems to be one where the risk/reward is worth it. After all, all of these prspects are risks as of now, right? So I will take the risk of the fat guy who has proven for years that he can crush the ball over the guys who have either had a short-season or relatively unspectacular careers to date.

2007-11-07 06:38:57
14.   mike eff
hey guys, we should consider the possibility that IPK might end up having a better career than joba or phil. we just can't make those predictions this early. better to hold on to all three
2007-11-07 06:44:08
15.   Nick from Washington Heights
11 and 13 I completely agree and I'm a little surprised that this is even controversial. If it's IPK, Melky and Tabata, you have to do it. Cabrera is a talent an offensive talent on par with Pujols. If there's any exaggeration in that statement it's only slight. In any case, we know what he can do at the major league level. Given his age, his salary, he is probably in the top 3-5 of all players in terms of value.
2007-11-07 06:45:29
16.   Nick from Washington Heights
14 you also have to consider that all three of these pitchers might not have great, or even good careers. The truth is that we know a lot more about what Cabrera can do at the major league level than what Joba, Hughes or IPK can do.
2007-11-07 06:46:18
17.   ny2ca2dc
14 Are you serious? Of course we can, GMs have to do this every day. Hughes and Joba are better prospects than IPK, both with higher ceilings and have already shown they can perform at the MLB level. There is nothing about Kennedy, who I really like, that says he might possibly match either Hughes or Joba.
2007-11-07 06:49:30
18.   Shaun P
12 I agree. Miggy Cabrera may be an all-world talent, but if the last 4 years have taught us anything, its that the Yanks need damn good pitching, and not an all-world offense, to succeed.

Last year the Yanks scored 968 runs and allowed 777, a differential of +191. Take A-Rod out for Betemit, adjust Jeter and Melky and Cano up a bit, Posada down some, and a healthy Giambi, and I think the offense as constructed today can score 870 runs, no problem.

To keep the differential the same, the Yanks would have to drop that 777 RA to 679 RA. The only way that happens is by keeping, and using, Joba, Hughes, and IPK (and improving the bullpen a little).

What's the point in scoring 968 runs again if the pitching is so poor it allows almost 800 runs?

BTW, note that the World Champions scored 867 runs last year, but allowed only 657.

No to Miggy.

2007-11-07 06:53:21
19.   joejoejoe
If Miguel Cabrera is fat and lazy send every player in the clubhouse a crate of Oreos and a La-Z-Boy. The guy has played in 157+ games 4 years in a row and the most similar player to him on Baseball-Reference thru age 24 is Hank Aaron. #2-4 most similar are Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Robinson, and Orlando Cepeda. Cepeda is a good analogy because Cepeda got a lot of BS press about being lazy too and the Giants traded him for Ray Sadecki. I'm sure Sadecki was gritty as hell. Cepeda was only great.
2007-11-07 06:56:10
20.   monkeypants
18 "
To keep the differential the same, the Yanks would have to drop that 777 RA to 679 RA. The only way that happens is by keeping, and using, Joba, Hughes, and IPK (and improving the bullpen a little)."

The problem is that you are thinking only of next year. In the longer run, where are the runs going to come from, after Giambi's option is turned down, and Posada ages, and Jeter turns 36, and there are no position players (save Tabata) in the pipeline?

Picking up Cabrera would be a great move--not only because of his offense, but because of his age.

"BTW, note that the World Champions scored 867 runs last year, but allowed only 657."

Yes, so their run differential was better than the Yanks'. This suggests that the solution is to increase the run differential, not contract it (or keep it the same) in the name of defense.

2007-11-07 06:57:58
21.   Shaun P
Slightly off topic - anyone else start to panic when they read this bit at the end of Kepner's piece on Cabrera?

"The Yankees need help in the bullpen, and a name to remember is the right-hander LaTroy Hawkins, who had a 3.42 earned run average for Colorado last season. Hawkins, 34, has pitched in at least 60 games for eight consecutive seasons."

NO please just say NO to old, overpriced, free agent relievers who can't strike guys out and last pitched well in the AL in 2003.

2007-11-07 06:58:59
22.   mike eff
ny2ca2dc , yes, i am serious. the majority of young pitchers do NOT make it in the majors ...many of them from injuries, som to other factors. just because joba and hughes have a "higher ceiling" doesn't guarantee that they will have a better career.
2007-11-07 07:00:03
23.   ny2ca2dc
12 18 Lets not ignore the rest of the farm now - for 08 you've got Horne, Clippard, and the rest of the 07 Trenton crew, plus maybe Brackman and/or Humberto Sanchez. Many have higher upsides than Kennedy. Betances is still a ways away, but has high upside as well.

The yanks have pitching in reserve throughout the minors, IPK is replaceable, Miggy Cabrera is all world.

2007-11-07 07:00:49
24.   mehmattski
imilar Batters through Age 24

Compare Stats

1. Hank Aaron (950) *
2. Ken Griffey (917)
3. Frank Robinson (911)
4. Orlando Cepeda (910)
5. Hal Trosky (902)
6. Joe Medwick (894)
7. Al Kaline (893)
8. Mickey Mantle (892)
9. Andruw Jones (882)
10. Vladimir Guerrero (879)

Man, that would be terrible if the Yankees added a guy like that.

Melky is fairly expendable, especially if the Yankees turn around and sign Andruw Jones or Aaron Rowand (but please, no Torii Hunter). IPK looks like a solid pitching prospect, but I think all of us have seen enough to know that TINSTAAPP. IPK could go on to have a solid career, but so could Horne, and Marquez, and Sanchez, and even Ty Clip. The Yankees' area of strength right now is pitching prospects. Since I expect Pettitte to be back with the Yankees next year, it would mean that Kennedy would not see much time in the majors in 2008. By 2009, all the pitching prospects I mentioned would be major league ready as well.

As for Cabrera's weight, it didn't seem to prevent him from hitting .320/.401/.525 last year. Those kinds of numbers play at any position, though granted they are otherworldly at third base. If he has to move to first base- so what?

It makes the 2008 Yankees much better, and it makes the 2009-2015 much better. Why is there any opposition in the world to this trade?

2007-11-07 07:01:07
25.   dianagramr
Remember how the Yankees' season turned around when Melky was made starting CF?

Just WHO will play CF if Melky is included in a trade for Miggy? Do they go after Rowand? (I sure hope so .... I love him).

2007-11-07 07:02:09
26.   ny2ca2dc
22 Hughes are Joba already have made the majors, and are better prospects in every sense than Kennedy. The rest of what you're stating is truisms.
2007-11-07 07:03:06
27.   Shaun P
20 Actually, my point re the Sox's run differential is that instead of clubbing opponents to death, and hoping the pitching is good enough - which is what the Yanks have been doing since 2003 because the pitching has been so bad - you can beat them soundly with a fewer runs scored by not allowing as many runs - which is how the Yanks won from 1996-2003.

With the caveat that anything can happen, which is preferable - having one incredible hitter for the next 10 years - a poor defender who might be limited to DH for the last half of that deal - or having 3 above-average to incredible pitchers for the next 10 years?

I think the Yanks will be able to fill in the offense. Hitters are much easier to find and develop, and more predictable. Good pitching, in contrast, is unpredictable and hard to come by.

2007-11-07 07:03:58
28.   mehmattski
25 Um, the Yankees' season turned around when a different Miggy was banished and when the right fielder and second baseman remembered how to hit...

I wouldn't mind Rowand, but I'd prefer Andruw Jones.

2007-11-07 07:04:08
29.   ny2ca2dc
25 Andrew Jones is looking better and better - Andrew is a type B free agent, if you can believe that, so he costs only money - Assuming the FO can be creative with the roster & positioning, Andrew is a really really tempting target.
2007-11-07 07:08:38
30.   mehmattski
27 But, right now, the Yankees' area of strength is pitching prospects. You deal from an area of strength to fill an area of weakness. The closest any of the Yankees' hitting prospects is Brett Gardner, and he may hit a home run once a decade (and it would probably be inside-the-park). Tabata, Jackson, and Suttle are all at least two or three years away, and none of them has shown tremendous power either.

Also, this: "having one incredible hitter for the next 10 years - a poor defender who might be limited to DH for the last half of that deal - or having 3 above-average to incredible pitchers for the next 10 years?"

Is a false dichotomy- we're not talking about trading all THREE of them to the Marlins, just one, and the one with the lowest ceiling. Horne could step in next year and give the Yankees what IPK gave them this year.

Of course, what we're all missing in debating this trade is that Beinfest would never go for it. The Red Sox could offer Lester, Ellisbury, and Carter and Cabrera would be on a plane to Boston before Epstein even finished the sentence.

2007-11-07 07:09:02
31.   Shaun P
BTW, I'm not saying that it would be horrible if the Yanks got Cabrera. I'm just saying, like Schteeve, that we've heard this song before, and maybe we want to think about it before we hear it again.

I would trade IPK and Melky and _____ for Cabrera (where the blank is anyone but Hughes, Joba, or Tabata). However, I do not think that's enough to get it done.

2007-11-07 07:09:58
32.   Murray
By how much are we supposed to discount hitting stats accumulated in the inferior league?
2007-11-07 07:10:32
33.   RIYank
Count me with the pro-Miggy crew.
I don't care that he's got a weight problem unless it's likely to affect his hitting. If he's got a little Manny in him, I count that as a plus. The fact that he thinks the Yankees have "too many rules" does bother me a little (even though they do).

Lincecum looks like a stud. But the history of pitchers moving from the NL to the AL has not been encouraging.

2007-11-07 07:11:17
34.   Shaun P
30 31 We're actually thinking the same thing! =)

(Though I think the Sox would have to offer more than Lester and Ellsbury - Buchholz too, or another of their young power arms, since Lester isn't exactly a power arm.)

2007-11-07 07:12:21
35.   Nick from Washington Heights
32 what about offensive stats accumulated in a pitcher's park?
2007-11-07 07:14:03
36.   RIYank
There is no way in hell that Theo is trading Lester, Ellisbury, and Carter for Cabrera. Out of the question. (I hope to god I'm wrong, though.)

Oh, and as for an OF replacement for Melky: not a big issue, I think. I think Melky is a great guy, and he's really cheap. But replacing his baseball ability from the current FA class would be easy. Keep Tabata and Jackson on the back burner, and we could stand a couple of years of an aging outfield. Ageing. Aging. Hm.

2007-11-07 07:14:26
37.   dianagramr
27

It takes at least 3 great prospects to find one great ML pitcher (depending on the organization).

I'm thinking back to the Mets' pinning their hopes on the highly touted trio of Pulsipher, Isringhausen and Wilson a decade ago.

2007-11-07 07:15:58
38.   RIYank
Daily News:

Brian Cashman met with the Marlins at about 6 p.m. last night at the GM meetings. No offers were made, but a source with knowledge of the situation said the Marlins made it clear that the Yankees would have to include either Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy in any trade for Cabrera, something the Yankees are not willing to do.
---------

So maybe that possibility was short-lived?

2007-11-07 07:16:55
39.   mehmattski
32 2007 NL Adjusted OPS+
Jones-ATL 166
Pujols-STL 157
Fielder-MIL 156
Wright-NYM 150
Cabrera-FLA 150

Cabrera was 50% better than the average hitter in the NL last year. Also whatever tick down you give him for being in the NL would be countered by the uptick you need to give him for compiling those stats at Dolphins Stadium.

2007-11-07 07:23:53
40.   joejoejoe
Johnny Damon, $$$, IPK, Cano, Wang, Betemit & potluck FOR Cabrera, Willis & Uggla

The Marlins get box office (Damon), one established starter (Wang), one top SP prospect (IPK), one solid prospect (Betemit) and a cheap, younger All-Star 2B with more pop. They upgrade at 4 roster spots and downgrade at only 1.

The Yankees get a young slugger that can play 3B/OF, a 25 year old former star LHSP coming off his worst year, and an everyday 2B. The lose zero roster depth (Cabrera can play 3B/OF), regain a little RH balance in the lineup, and take Dontrelle Willis's money and inconsistency back for Wang's steady, low-cost excellence.

I think any Miguel Cabrera deal is easier to do if it's a bigger deal ala Beckett AND Lowell. Think big and there are fair deals to be made that meet both teams needs.

2007-11-07 07:26:37
41.   VinceMig
I agree with 18 to a certain degree. While I don't think that scoring that many runs is as easy as you make it out to be, I don't think 3b is the priority right now.

Hughes and Chamberlain need to be UNTOUCHABLE! In order for any team to win the world series they need to have pitching. How can we be so blind to the teams needs? This has been the problem for years now and we finally have two guys who look primed to become star pitchers and you guys are ready to trade him for someone that Giambi can have farting contests with.

Cabrera is an all-world talent and in the Yanks lineup he will put up career numbers. However, guys who don't work hard get eaten up in NY and pitching is our biggest need.

As far as Melky is concerned, who plays CF if you trade him? Signing Hunter or Rowand isn't a given. Damon doesn't cover as much ground in center as he used to. You'll be trading offense at one position for defense at two or more positions depending on who you have to move around. Melky is on pace to be a superstar and he won't be 24 until next August.

2007-11-07 07:29:29
42.   JL25and3
37 All the more reason to use one as trade bait while his value is highest.

I'm really finding this a bizarre discussion. 31 , no, we haven't heard this song before. When was the last time we heard about trading our third-best pitching prospect for a 24-year-old who's one of the very best hitters in the game? 12 , given the fact that our current third baseman is Wilson Betemit, isn't that of a wee bit of concern also?

Let's stop the Melky-as-young-Bernie arguments as well. Melky is a nice little player, but there's no way he's going to turn into Bernie Williams. He didn't progress a lick from year 1 to year 2; I assume he'll get a bit better, but he's probably never going to be more than a nice little player.

Could these predictions be wrong? Sure. There's no guarantee of anything. Sure, something could happen to Hughes or Chamberlain, and they'd be sorry they traded Kennedy (although he's not the end of the prospects). On the other hand, something could happen to Kennedy, and then they'll be damned sorry they didn't trade him.

Pitching is good. Hitting is good, too. If every young player on the Yankees is untouchable, they're going to have a hard time getting any better.

2007-11-07 07:32:03
43.   RIYank
41

In order for any team to win the world series they need to have pitching.

It helps. But, the '06 Cardinals, the '03 Marlins, the '00 Yanks. Mediocre pitching, WS title.

Who plays CF without Melk: Hunter, Rowand, Jones. True, it isn't guaranteed that the Yankees sign one of them, but come on. Three FAs, one GM with very deep pockets and a need at that position. Do the arithmetic.

2007-11-07 07:34:13
44.   sam2175
Wait, what? Some people are arguing that Yankees should not trade for the best young hitter not named Pujols in all of baseball because of ... Ian Kennedy? And the guy is only 24, putting up ridiculous numbers in a pitcher's park?

Alex is dead on. You HAVE to make that trade.

Kennedy's trade value is perhaps at his highest now. He had a nice little run when he pitched well in limited opportunity at the end of the season. But at his best, he will probably achieve 80-85% of what Mike Mussina achieved (which is plenty, by the way).

2007-11-07 07:38:05
45.   mehmattski
43 I agree with you, but the 2003 Marlins?

Josh Beckett 138 ERA+
Dontrelle Willis 127 ERA+
Mark Redman 117 ERA+
Brad Penny 103 ERA+

Compared to the Yankees' pitching that year:
Mussina 129
Clemens 112
Pettitte 109
Wells 106

Considering the "average" threshhold for pitching in the NL is much higher, the Marlins definitely had the pitching advantage in that series...

2007-11-07 07:45:24
46.   RIYank
45

Marlins' ERA+ for 2003: 104.
Yankees' ERA+ for 2003: 109.

You might say, yes, but the top four starters are what's important in the WS. Fair enough.

2007-11-07 07:45:25
47.   Knuckles
40 No way. Cano is going to be one of the top 2B in baseball for the forseeable future. Wang is a solid #2 without 10 million miles on his arm and a herky jerky motion a la Dontrelle. I would limit any trades with Florida towards landing Cabrera; trying for anything else will just end up with the Yanks downgrading unnecessarily.
2007-11-07 07:45:37
48.   51cq24
if we can do kennedy melky and a prospect who isn't joba, hughes, tabata or jackson, i'd do it in a second. but i actually think that kennedy melky and tabata is too much to give up, even though i think cabrera is right now one of the best 5 hitters in the game. you get no defense. how about kennedy melky and the catcher?
2007-11-07 07:46:31
49.   NJYankee41
I think it would be a great move to trade for Cabrera. But I would like to have more confidence he won't eat himself out of the league. If I had a better idea in how Cabrera would react to NY this trade would be an easy choice for me to make.

I love Melky's enthusiasm and defense, but he is replaceable. I think IPK has a good future and it would be awesome if him Hughes and Joba turned into a three headed monster, but like many have said, we have plenty of good young pitching.

If Andruw could be had at a reasonable price and length I would do it. But we all know who we are dealing with there. I don't want him for the next 7 years at $18 mil a year.

40 That won't happen. I would be pissed if it did.

2007-11-07 07:49:18
50.   51cq24
48 to be more specific, i don't think there's any way we should trade tabata. i've seen the guy and he's the real deal (and pretty similar to cabrera). he's coming off wrist surgery that is fairly routine, so he should be fine, but his trade value is so much lower than it should be right now. the guy has 5 tools. he's our best minor leaguer. don't trade him.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2007-11-07 07:50:22
51.   Shaun P
42 The song we have heard before is coupling an all-world 3B with a good offense, to make a great offense, but having crappy pitching.

Again, I think such a scenario arise only if its Hughes (or Joba) who get traded. Alex did say:

"why wouldn't you trade Kennedy (or even Hughes) along with Melky in a package deal for a talent like Cabrera?"

Kennedy + Melky + (someone not named Hughes, Joba, or Tabata) = sound great to me!

Hughes + Melky + someone not named Kennedy*, Joba, or Tabata = no deal for me

*I think we can all agree giving up Hughes and Kennedy, given the current state of the rotation, would be a mistake - unless you want to see the Yanks finish below .500 in 2008

I still don't think IPK+Melky+____ gets it done. The Marlins have plenty of young pitchers. What they need is a CF and a near-ready MLB hitting prospect. The Yanks have the CF (Melky) but don't have any near-ready MLB hitting prospects.

2007-11-07 07:51:05
52.   VinceMig
43 "It helps. But, the '06 Cardinals, the '03 Marlins, the '00 Yanks. Mediocre pitching, WS title."

Of all three of those teams you just mentioned only the Cards had a weak staff, but they had the best pitcher in the NL with Carpenter.

'06 Cards had Carpenter and a bullpen of wainwright and looper.

'03 Marlins had Becket, Penny, and Willis with Looper and Urbina in the pen.

'00 Yanks had Clemens, Pettite, Cone, Hernandez plus Rivera, Stanton, and Nelly in the pen

Pitching wins championships PERIOD. The Yankees don't have a great bullpen to make up for their starters short comings so they can't afford to give away pitching.

So you want to sign Rowand who makes spectacular plays but fails to be a great everyday CF and is super injury prone?

Andruw Jones is now suffering from Bernie Williams disease after putting his body through so much over the past decade. He is still good on defense, but he has dropped of a lot and his hitting has gotten worse. Check out his POs and range factor over the years.

Hunter is the only one out of all of those I wouldn't mind having, but there are plenty of other teams willing to pay him.

2007-11-07 07:51:07
53.   Zack
I'll agree with everyone who advocates the trade, as I have been with Santana or any other trade of this nature. The Yankees have a TON of pitching prospects. Way too many. IPk is, most likely, at his most enticing as a trade chip right now. He's coming off a meteoric rise through the minors based on his style/composure/college career. He's even got a few ML starts to show he "can do it." However, next year will be a learning curve. He isnt' a power pitcher and he doesn't have a full compliment of pitches (yet). That kind of thing doesn't translate well as of now to the majors. So next year, we may not be singing the praises of IPK so much. But right now, he's mentioned in the same breath as Hughes and Joba.

Same thing to an extent with Melky. Sure, he could become the next Bernie, but there is absolutely no comp. that would suggest it besides Bernie's "slow" career start. Remember, Melky came somewhat out of the blue last season. I like Melky, a lot. But he is 100% expendable. The Yanks have far higher level ceiling OF talent in AA, its an offseason filled with 3 (!!) pretty darn good CF replacements, and again, Melky's value is likely as high as it will be.

The biggest lost in one of those trades may very well be the 3rd piece, a Tabata or Horne. Those are the Yanks' high ceiling prospects. But of course, thats what you give up to get the guy with the 10th highest active career ops+.

As already mentioned, we as fans have the tendency to over-rate our "homegrown" guys. They are fun and we are coming off a run of very few of them. But there's a lot more on the way. And its not like the Yankees are dealing for a strength. Right now., they literally have 0 RH power and their offense is only going to get weaker year by year. Yes, pitching is very important, but look at the Padres. They had some pretty good pitching this year and couldn't score runs, and they couldn't make it happen. It works both ways.

And Pettitte not yet signed shouldn't effect this. If you want to replace Pettitte in the rotation, you will likely have to sign, say Garcia or Wolf, b/ Kennedy is not going to be a dependable 200 innings, and thats what you really need...

2007-11-07 07:51:39
54.   Sarasota
we finally have some arms that can go 6+ innings and we're trading them for Cabrera?? No thanks. Hughes, Joba, IPK are the cornerstone. Cashman is best served to hold on tight.
2007-11-07 07:54:36
55.   Zack
Oh, and that Times article seems to me to give the indication that Kennedy WOULD be enough, which means that Cashman does indeed HAVE to make that trade...

52 Dude, pitching wins championships, but you have to get to the postseason too, and with a lineup with no RHP that will continue to get weaker, you ain't getting there in the AL. Besides, you are acting like the Yanks would be giving up ALL their pitching. The adage really should be that a dominant #1 and a few #2s win championships. The Yanks would still potentially have that without IPK.

2007-11-07 07:56:51
56.   Zack
54 No, Hughes, Joba, Wang are the cornerstone. IPK is the Eric Milton who brings you a key piece of the championship puzzle
2007-11-07 07:58:31
57.   williamnyy23
In addition to helping the team next year, Cabrera would give the Yankees a young offensive stud to anchor the lineup as Jeter, Posada, Matsui, etc. all start to decline. Cabrera is not only a move that boosts the offense this year, but for the next 10 years.

If the Yankees truly believe that the pitching depth on the farm is real, they have to trade some of it for top notch position players because they don't really have any on the near-term horizon. Cabrera is not just a good hitter...he has the potential to be the best hitter.

While pitching is very important, hitting counts too. Hopefully, Joba, Phil and Wang is enough of anchor to ensure the Yankees have the quality pitching you are talking about for quite some time. It would also be nice to have Cabrera and Cano as young offensive core. Absent Robbie, the Yankees have an aging offense. I'd rather gradually overhaul it than wait for a complete collapse.

2007-11-07 07:58:45
58.   VinceMig
55

IPK is one thing but people are talking about Hughes. Thats insane and Cashman should be fired if he moves him.

2007-11-07 07:58:54
59.   mehmattski
52 First of all, Torri Hunter is the one suffering from Bernie Williams disease- he can't hit anymore and he was terrible on defense this year. His reputation will get him a long-term deal, and I really hope it's not on the Yankees.

Jones, meanwhile, had a down year at age 30. While it's possible it's the beginning of a downward trend, years and years of data on similar players suggests otherwise. At best, this was an aberrant year, in which he was still one of the best defensive CF in the league. At worst, he'll pop back up next year and then slowly decline. I agree he shouldn't be given a long-term contract, but his poor year last year will likely prohibit that. It's the perfect situation for the Melky-less Yanks.

54 Which arms can go 6+ innings? Given they will all be on an innings cap next year, Joba and Hughes aren't likely to be throwing complete games next year. And as many have said, the Yankees have a ton of pitching prospects. Losing IPK is, at worst, a speed bump on the road to a cornerstone.

2007-11-07 08:02:06
60.   RIYank
52
Of all three of those teams you just mentioned only the Cards had a weak staff, but they had the best pitcher in the NL with Carpenter.

None of the teams had a weak staff. All of them had mediocre pitching staffs. (Staves?)
Cardinals' ERA+: 98.
Marlins' ERA+: 104.
Yanks' ERA+: 101.

Each of those was worse than the ERA+ of the team's WS opponent, and each of them is mediocre.

'00 Yanks had Clemens, Pettite, Cone, Hernandez plus Rivera, Stanton, and Nelly in the pen

Cone was terrible that year, for the record.

Pitching wins championships PERIOD.

Nope. I gave three examples of teams with mediocre pitching staffs, as demonstrated by their team ERA+, that won the WS against teams with better pitching staffs.

2007-11-07 08:07:43
61.   yankz
Couple of things I'd like to remind everyone from the last thread:

ESPN has Cabrera listed at 210 lbs.
RLYW makes a good point: It's probably hard to motivate yourself playing in front of 115 people. Also, a fat check would go a long way, I think.

As for the "We have enough offense!" people, I ask you: do you remember how many times during game threads people said "Where would we be without Alex, Jorge, or Derek?" Well, Alex is gone, and Jorge might be too. And even if he comes back, it's extremely unlikely that he'll do as well.

I think you all are overestimating this offense.

2007-11-07 08:08:20
62.   mehmattski
60 I still agree with you in principle, but using Team ERA to explain post-season success is misleading. To continue to use the 2003 Marlins as an example, Willis wasn't even on the team until mid-May, and so the terrible pitching stats of starters used before Willis got there are included in the Team ERA+. Next, in the post-season, a team is going to use its top three, maybe four starters, and its top three bullpen men for about 90% of the innings. You have to take that into account when you're talking about the postseason.

And as I showed back in 45 , the Marlins had a better postseason pitching staff than the Yankees in 2003. If you want to talk bullpen- Urbina was just as good as Rivera that year, and Looper was better than Osuna or Hammond.

2007-11-07 08:08:28
63.   Simone
If the Yankees can keep Joba and Hughes, then they have to trade for Miguel Cabrera. Big as a house or not, Cabrera is an amazing hitter. He is a Hall of Famer, if he can get his weight under control. Giving up Kennedy and a couple prospects (not Melky) is a great deal for Cabrera who I think can still play 3rd.
2007-11-07 08:08:35
64.   yankz
Also, am I the only one who thinks Brett Gardner could replace Melky ASAP? He's supposed to be a better defender, he's definitely faster, and both have 0 pop in their bats.
2007-11-07 08:08:42
65.   NJYankee41
60 But if it weren't for Beckett's pitching in 2003 the Marlins wouldn't have won it. I understand what you are saying but I think more focus has to be towards the top pitchers on each team not the whole roster of pitchers during the regular season.
2007-11-07 08:09:44
66.   Shaun P
57 Two questions

1. Would you be against including Hughes in a trade for Cabrera?

2. Do you think IPK+Melky+(not Hughes, Joba, or Tabata) gets Cabrera?

2007-11-07 08:10:00
67.   yankz
Re: Cash's IPK ain't leaving stance: I'm hoping he's just saying that to drive the price down.
2007-11-07 08:11:20
68.   mehmattski
64 Well, to be fair to Melky's "pop," he's probably already got more homers in his career (15) than Gardner will ever hit at the major league level. And Gardner has struggled mightily at AAA, I still think he's a year away, and by then he may be passed on the depth cart by AJax.
2007-11-07 08:11:28
69.   RIYank
Okay, I agree that it makes more sense to look at just the top pitchers as a predictor of postseason success, and also that (iin the case of the Marlins) if you drop the worst pitchers from consideration the ERA+ will go way up.
2007-11-07 08:12:48
70.   yankz
66 I'm not william, but I'll add my .02

1) Yes, most likely. If it was Hughes straight up...I'd think about it.
2) Probably not, but I'm a wee bit optimistic.

Let's see, the market for Cabrera will be big-market teams needing a 3B. I say big market because they'll probably be looking to lock him up for a decade. Who does that include? Yanks, Sox, and LAD? I can't see the Dodgers trading for another young kid, and I hope the Sox go hard after Lowell instead.

2007-11-07 08:13:58
71.   NJYankee41
67 He has to do that. He is making IPK sound like a good of a prospect has Joba and Hughes with the hope that it frives down the price of the secondary chips.
2007-11-07 08:14:30
72.   yankz
68 OK, so not ASAP. But I think he'll definitely get on base more, definitely run the bases better, and probably be a better defender.

And yeah, that's all assuming A-Jax doesn't pan out.

2007-11-07 08:14:42
73.   mehmattski
66 1. If it were Hughes for Cabrera straight up (or with the Yanks throwing in a second tier guy), I would do it.

2. It depends on what other teams are offering. The trade for Beckett was big, but it's been a long time since a 24 year old superstar slugger was on the trade market.

2007-11-07 08:15:42
74.   yankz
Of course, Boston could let Lowell walk, sign Arod and move him to SS, move Youk to 3rd, and trade for Miggy. But let's hope not.
2007-11-07 08:16:13
75.   VinceMig
There is no way this trade happens without Hughes or Joba so there is no way the Yanks can afford to do it.
2007-11-07 08:17:33
76.   mehmattski
74 But the Red Sox already have a shortstop!

/Boy Genius

2007-11-07 08:19:03
77.   NJYankee41
74 Ouch that would hurt. With Lugo and Drew signed to such large contracts its hard to see them overstocking. Knock on wood.
2007-11-07 08:22:26
78.   ms october
74 yeah - bite your tongue. but in addition to the money 77 that would cost, i'm pretty sure that would not be a good fielding team, which theo seems to want.
2007-11-07 08:24:49
79.   yankz
I'd just like to say that I'm glad that the Yankees seem to have no interest in the Japanese pitchers coming over.
2007-11-07 08:25:50
80.   VinceMig
79.

The relievers might be worth taking a look at

2007-11-07 08:27:35
81.   Schteeve
This entire depressing conversation makes me think that the Yankees should get off their high horse and open the door for A-Rod to come back if he accepts their original pre-opt out offer.
2007-11-07 08:32:26
82.   williamnyy23
66 If hughes is required for Cabrera, I wouldn't make that deal until I exhausted all other possibilities. Then, I would consider it, but probably lean toward keeping Hughes. Chamberlain would not even warrant consideration.

I think IPK and Melky gets you close. You'd probably also have to throw in another promising arm from deeper in the system.

2007-11-07 08:32:26
83.   williamnyy23
66 If hughes is required for Cabrera, I wouldn't make that deal until I exhausted all other possibilities. Then, I would consider it, but probably lean toward keeping Hughes. Chamberlain would not even warrant consideration.

I think IPK and Melky gets you close. You'd probably also have to throw in another promising arm from deeper in the system.

2007-11-07 08:33:27
84.   Sarasota
67 hopefully yes. Then Kennedy, the sleeper in all of this stays.
2007-11-07 08:34:58
85.   williamnyy23
81 But, Cabrera is likely to be better (and much cheaper) than Arod over the next 10 years, so the Yankees conceivably could be better off with Cabrera and an extra $15mn/year to sign a free agent pitcher.
2007-11-07 08:35:44
86.   JL25and3
41 Melky is on pace to be a superstar and he won't be 24 until next August.

No, he's not on pace to be a superstar. He hasn't shown a single thing to suggest that.


A budding superstar should have flashed some signs of it by Melky's age. Cabrera's only a year older.

2007-11-07 08:36:42
87.   Shaun P
70 I think anyone who is considered a contender for A-Rod has to be considered a contender for Cabrera too - except the Sox for the reasons given in 74 etc.

So add at least

1. The Angels (who do have the young talent, like Wood, Adenhart, and _______ to make the deal)

2. And the Mets (who need a 1B and could give up Milledge/Gomez/the other OF stud plus _______ to do it)

to the list.

2007-11-07 08:47:08
88.   williamnyy23
87 Milledge and Gomez don't come close to what the Yankees can offer, especially as the Marlins are purported to want pitching. I doubt anyone views Pelfrey or Humber highly anymore.
2007-11-07 08:47:10
89.   tommyl
Hasn't Ajax shown considerable power. He doesn't hit a ton of HRs but he is leading the Hawaiian league in XBHs. Great gap power, very fast, good fielder, walks some. Sounds like a good CF prospect to me. Tabata has a huge upside. He's very young, playing high A-ball and he was playing with a wrist injury all year (which has since been fixed). Its a tough call but I tend to be conservative and want to hang on to all our prospects.
2007-11-07 08:47:33
90.   RichB
Okay, joining this thread late, so I can't read all the posts, but count my vote:

Hughes, Jaba, IPK = Untouchable
Melky = very touchable

How about Clippard and De Salvo? I'd part with either or both of those packaged with Melky for Cabrera. Heck, throw in a PTBNL.

Clippard, De Salvo, Melky & PTBNL for Cabrera. I'd do that in a heartbeat.

2007-11-07 08:47:53
91.   williamnyy23
87 Also, I have a feeling Milledge wouldn't be welcomed on the Marlins after what take place on the next to last game of the season.
2007-11-07 08:50:30
92.   williamnyy23
90 Of course you would, but the Marlins would laugh at that offer. DeSalvo and Clippard are non-prospects.
2007-11-07 08:51:15
93.   51cq24
how about clippard, de salvo, chase wright, kei igawa, and eric duncan? how can they resist?
2007-11-07 08:51:54
94.   williamnyy23
93 Can we add Pavano and Farnsworth to that list too...that would pretty much clear out all our crap.
2007-11-07 08:52:03
95.   tommyl
41 I agree, I love Melky, but he's shown potential to be an above average CF. That's very valuable, but the kid is not going to be Joe DiMaggio. Compare him to Cano who has shown tremendous development in his fielding, hitting and even patience at the plate. Cano shows signs of being a superstar, not Melky.
2007-11-07 08:58:11
96.   51cq24
i just want to repeat that i think tabata should be untradeable, especially this year. he is very young so of course we have no real idea if he'll be as good as he looks, but so far he looks like a similar hitter to manny/cabrera, but can also run and play defense.
2007-11-07 08:58:27
97.   williamnyy23
85 Also, by trading for Cabrera and letting Arod walk, the Yankees get two first round/sandwich round picks, which could allow them to replace IPK.
2007-11-07 09:00:27
98.   williamnyy23
Here is the trade off in summary:

Cabrera, approximately $15mn in savings, plus two drafts picks for Arod, IPK, Melky and another prospect.

I think that's a swap that makes sense for the Yankees, both now and in the long run.

2007-11-07 09:00:28
99.   tommyl
97 The problem is who do you replace IPK with for this year. If Andy doesn't come back, that leaves you with a rotation of Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain, Moose and ???? and both Hughes and Joba have innings caps. If we make that trade you guys better be ready for the second coming of the monster called IgawaRasnerKarstens.
2007-11-07 09:02:53
100.   williamnyy23
96 In my wildest dreams, I wouldn't expect Tabata to turn into Cabrera, so I wouldn't make him untouchable. Even adding IPK along with Tabata wouldn't turn me off. I think you have to give up talent to get talent, and IPK/Tabata seems powerful enough to do the trick (kind of like Sanchez/Ramirez for Beckett).
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2007-11-07 09:02:57
101.   RichB
92 Eh... they may be non prospects for the Yankees, but I have little confidence in the Marlin's priorities. They seem less interested in building a team than they are in saving some money.
2007-11-07 09:03:57
102.   Shaun P
91 Oh, I don't know, the Marlins still have Scott Olsen on their team - and, for that matter, Miggy Cabrera! You and I both know that talent always carries the day, and Milledge is very talented.

My understanding, though, is the Marlins want hitting, because they have pitching in spades; looks at the top of their recent drafts (except 2007). (As recently as 10/4/07, Kevin Goldstein at BP wrote: "Desperate for anything resembling a hitting prospect, the Marlins thought they had one . . .") I could be wrong.

2007-11-07 09:05:34
103.   williamnyy23
99 Obviously, Pettitte coming back makes things that much easier. Perhaps Cashman could have another converation with Andy about how a lot of decisions hinge on his. Absent that, another trade or stop gap signing would be in order (Silva, perhaps).
2007-11-07 09:08:25
104.   51cq24
100 but tabata's trade value is much lower now than it should be because of the wrist surgery. it would be an especially huge mistake to trade him now.
2007-11-07 09:13:31
105.   tommyl
103 Its been made clear that if the Yankees were to push Andy right now he'd likely retire. I don't think that's the tack to take.
2007-11-07 09:18:13
106.   williamnyy23
101 If anything, the Marlins history shows that they don't give away valuable players for garbage.

102 I read something today suggesting they would want both. I don't think the Mets have any pitching to offer, so they'd be far down the list of potential suitors. Also, it could be that the Marlins wouldn't want to see Cabrera return as a Met for the next 10 years. It's one thing to trade a Delgado in the division, but another thing to deal a young star like Cabrera.

2007-11-07 09:20:09
107.   williamnyy23
Of course, if the following from Buster Olney is true, then Cabrera will be a Dodger. The Yankees might be able to match that package, but shouldn't:

"The most interesting trade parameter mentioned is what the Marlins may ask the Dodgers for, in return for All-Star third baseman Miguel Cabrera: third baseman Andy LaRoche, minor league pitcher Clay Kershaw, and an outfielder -- perhaps Matt Kemp."

2007-11-07 09:22:07
108.   williamnyy23
104 I don't think his trade value is low...wrist injury or not, Tabata is still very highly thought of prospect. Trading low would be getting Joe Crede. If Tabata goes in a Cabrera deal, it would be value for value.
2007-11-07 09:27:03
109.   weeping for brunnhilde
0 Well, if Girardi (it feels weird to call him "Joe," just yet, too much confusion) says Cabrera's ok, that's something to consider. Of course, he may just be talking propaganda...

I just don't think it would be good to bring in a guy who admittedly doesn't want to be saddled with rules under a guy with a rep for discipline.

2007-11-07 09:29:19
110.   Shaun P
107 Yes, the Yanks could match it, but the pieces that would have to go (at least one, and maybe two, of Cano, Hughes, Joba) mean no deal.

If that's good enough to get Santana, and I think it would be, it would be good enough to get Cabrera. I'm not sure the Dodgers win either of those deals, though.

2007-11-07 09:31:32
111.   weeping for brunnhilde
0 "A trade you have to make."

I don't know...seems to me we should be sinking everything into securing dominant pitching. Do that, learn to play small ball and the position players will take care of themselves.

(I'm being somewhat flip, of course, but basically, I think that's a sound plan.)

2007-11-07 09:43:23
112.   Shaun P
107 Meanwhile, this Sun Times column (link from Olney's blog) says the Chi Sox could get in on Cabrera too; it also verifies that Florida wants pitching:

"Florida wants young arms

The Marlins are said to be targeting young starting pitching, and the Sox have plenty of that. Sources say they might be willing to deal two of their top prospects, right-hander Lance Broadway and left-hander Gio Gonzalez. Landing Cabrera also might mean parting ways with Josh Fields."

2007-11-07 09:44:17
113.   ny2ca2dc
107 Man, if the Dodgers are stupid enough to make that deal, godspeed. That's 3 blue chip prospects, no thank you sir.

To respond to others re: Tabata, yes he may be real good & his value is low, but if including him allows you to substitute IPK for Hughes and still get the deal, it makes sense. We're after top flight pitching, which Hughes is and IPK ain't, decent to good though he may be.

2007-11-07 09:46:08
114.   ny2ca2dc
112 Then maybe we shoudln't be talking about tabata and should be talking about IPK, Melky, and maybe some from the Cox, Melancon, Sanchez, Whellen-type group. Because if it's arms the Marlins want, the Yanks are an awesome trading partner.
2007-11-07 09:59:05
115.   Shaun P
Way off topic (also from Olney's blog):

"If Cubs won NL in '84, the World Series would have been played at - Comiskey?!"

http://tinyurl.com/39vzza

A neat bit of baseball history, for those who are interested.

2007-11-07 09:59:36
116.   weeping for brunnhilde
Oh, and I agree wholeheartedly with OYF about not getting locked into a deal with Cabrera. I'd be willing to take a chance, but not at the expense of being stuck with fat-slob-dud a couple years down the road.

Make the guy prove himself first.

2007-11-07 09:59:49
117.   williamnyy23
112 Gonzalez and Broadway are not on par with what the Yankees have. I'd be surprised if the White Sox were players.
2007-11-07 10:01:46
118.   williamnyy23
116 But then you wind up right back in the same situation: having to compete for your star 3B in the FA market. If the Yankees get Cabrera, they have to give him at least a 5 year deal.
2007-11-07 10:17:06
119.   claybeez
107 The Dodgers would be nuts to make that deal.

114 If it's quality arms, not just starters, then that might be the way to go.

2007-11-07 10:28:29
120.   sam2175
116 "Make the guy prove himself first"?

What is the criteria on which he has to prove himself? Other than basically hitting the snot out of every ball that comes his way? Which he has done over the last four years? And when he is 24 as of now?

Cabrera is already proven beyond a shred of doubt. Unfortunate injuries aside, he is on his way to be a Hall of Famer.

2007-11-07 10:44:11
121.   theblastphemous
Why not throw Wang's name out there? Wang, Melky, Alan Horne and a minor league bat not named Tabata or Ajax. I know a lot of these trades are about hype, but that's not a bad little package.

And Cabrera is about as competitive as they come. He may look lackadaisical in the field, but he's a tough kid that takes no crap from pitchers (even those on his own team, Scott Olsen). We need could use some more 'tude in our everyday lineup.

2007-11-07 10:45:49
122.   Rob Middletown CT
My $.02:

If he can really be had for Kennedy, Melky and Tabata... you really have to think about pulling the trigger there.

Kennedy is a good pitcher & I like him. Melky... I'm a big fan. But these guys are likely to be solid but unspectacular contributors, whereas Cabrera is a HOF-level talent.

Obviously, a key factor is whether or not you believe Cabrera will get his butt in gear, lose weight, apply himself and play a decent 3B. If not... the price tag is looking a bit high for a 1B, even one who is a great hitter.

Also, hard to project Tabata at this point.

2007-11-07 10:49:37
123.   Rob Middletown CT
I dunno about trading Wang. This is a guy who has proven himself in the AL East and is a decent bet to give the team ~200 innings of 3.75-4 ERA ball next year.

He had two terrible starts this postseason, it's true, but I hope you're not including him b/c of that. His overall body of work is pretty impressive.

2007-11-07 10:55:31
124.   theblastphemous
In order to nab Cabrera without giving up a healthy bit of the farm, yeah. My concern is the position player hole in the Yankee farm system. To trade Ajax and/or Tabata would be, for me, far more costly for the next few years than parting with Wang. We do have LOADS of pitching prospects - and Wang isn't a shut 'em down guy. Just a steady innings and wins guy. Definitely not bad, but to make a deal for an all-time capability hitter he's expendable.
2007-11-07 11:00:53
125.   51cq24
108 his trade value is diminished no matter who they get back right now, because it means that they have to put in more quality elsewhere. if he can play in 2008, his value will be much greater.
2007-11-07 11:34:19
126.   JL25and3
124 I don't think the Marlins would take Wang instead of Kennedy. Wang's older - 28 next year. More to the point, he's arb-eligible this year, so his price tag is about to go way up.
2007-11-07 11:42:28
127.   Shaun P
124 The Yanks cannot afford to part with Wang (maybe even if Pettitte comes back), unless you want them to sign one of the overpriced crappy free agent starters out there. Right now, a rotation with no CMW means:

Moose (200 IP if we're lucky, and who knows of what quality)
IPK (limited to ~180 IP)
Hughes (limited to ~ 150 IP)
Joba (limited to ~ 130 IP)
5th starter du jour (by definition, a guy who pitches only ~150 innings)

That's about 710 IP, which means the bullpen is going to have to pitch around 730 IP - or over 100 IP each for 7 relievers. Completely impracticable.

2007-11-07 11:49:29
128.   yankz
Is it just me, or has it been forever since the Yankees went to arbitration with someone?
2007-11-07 11:56:07
129.   cult of basebaal
file this one under the heading of "way to be a douchenozzle, alex"

from petey:

Damon also expressed hope that Alex Rodriguez will come to some sort of deal with the Yankees. Johnny has tried calling Alex and hasn't received a call back. The "Can't Get A Call Back from A-Rod" list is a long one: Hank, Hal, Cash, Cano and now Damon.

2007-11-07 12:00:57
130.   OldYanksFan
"Melky is on pace to be a superstar and he won't be 24 until next August."
No offense guy, but I don't believe there is anyone here who believes Melky might be a 'superstar'. Those who are optimistic hope he can be in the top 25% of CFs.
2007-11-07 12:30:42
131.   OldYanksFan
61 Miggy was 155 lbs this summer
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2944052
2007-11-07 12:34:20
132.   Simone
129 So Alex isn't returning even Robbie's phone calls. I thought they were so close, yada, yada... I bet that Gordon guy who wrote the NY Times' article would say this means that Alex is Robbie's best friend. Alex is a cold one. Derek must be having a really good "I told you so" moment.
2007-11-07 12:37:45
133.   tommyl
Man I hope the Dodgers make that trade. Fits in with Joe's desire for sluggers and veteranness. Too bad we can't pry LaRoche away from them. Is anyone considering that? Maybe dangle Miguel Cairo or Kyle Farnsworth (he of the great stuff and postseason experience) in front of Joe T and Ned C?
2007-11-07 12:47:51
134.   OldYanksFan
Heyman: "The Marlins are as experienced and proficient as anyone at the fire sale, so interested teams should not be expecting any bargains. Cabrera's a poor third baseman (some may see him as a first baseman or outfielder) and his conditioning is 'up and down,' according to one interest exec, but he still has two years before he can become a free agent -- which means his value should be even higher than Mark Teixeira's was when the Rangers traded him to the Braves"
2007-11-07 12:58:08
135.   mehmattski
131 Er... what?

He was 185 when he was called up by the Marlins. He was 260 when he reported to training camp this spring. His ideal weight would be in the 220 range.

Unless you mean kilograms?

2007-11-07 13:01:25
136.   ny2ca2dc
Will Carroll in BP Unfiltered:
"* Get your tinfoil hats out and don't blame the messenger here, but a lot of people are starting to espouse some conspiracy theories when it comes to Alex Rodriguez and baseball. If you haven't noticed, there's a lot of 3B on the market suddenly. Miguel Cabrera is being shopped, Scott Rolen is making news about his no-trade clause, Mike Lowell wasn't re-signed by the Red Sox despite many thinking it would happen in concert with the Curt Schilling signing, and Adrian Beltre is being mentioned as an available commodity. Is someone trying to inflate the supply and hold Rodriguez's value down? If baseball can't agree on instant replay, what makes you think they could pull off a grand conspiracy?

* Speaking of Rodriguez, Joel Sherman of the NY Post reminds us that there's still arbitration to contend with. The Yankees could offer Rodriguez arbitration to get compensation picks, but risk having to go to the hearing room with Boras, the best player in baseball, and coming off a great season. There's plenty of other arbitration cases in what could be a landmark year for the process, so don't expect the Yankees to risk it."

Scott Rolen, if he could be had in an Abreu-style trade or for a Desalvo/Karstens/junk, would be a great addition to the 1B/3B/DH mix. Yanks are SO lefty heavy, this would be a good bit of balance regardless of other moves. Ya he's walking wounded and old, but when the cost is just money, hell ya.

Also, the thought that the Yanks could not offer arbitration to ARod strikes me as insane. ARod accepting arbitration is probably the best possible outcome, followed by arb being declined, with the worst possible outcome being ARod walking with no picks in return. Insanity Will Carroll!

2007-11-07 13:10:38
137.   NJYankee41
I was just looking at some minor league stats and I compared Tabata to Miguel Cabrera. Through age 18 Tabata has been a better player than Cabrera was. I'm surprised. In fact Cabrera didn't appear to be anything special until 2003. I didn't think much to add Tabata in a deal, but I'm having second thoughts now.
2007-11-07 13:17:32
138.   Shaun P
136 I agree on not offering arb to A-Rod. I think Will's sources are completely wrong here. Pete Abe has already posted - and Cashman has already said himself - that arbitration will be offered.

So what if Boras and A-Rod accept? That's not bad for the Yanks, but its horrible for A-Rod! Right now his own teammates (129 132 ) might not welcome him, forget the fans!

Besides, if he hated playing in NYC so much it caused him to opt-out, he won't accept. Can you imagine if he did, and he was back with the Yanks next year? HA!

2007-11-07 13:18:26
139.   tommyl
Ok, I just mentioned this as an idea half assed, but now I'm considering it. Can we make a move for Andy LaRoche? He's young, great minor league stats and likely blocked by veterans with Joe managing. Would dangling Melky get him straight up? Then you go out and sign Rowand, no real major increase to payroll and you have a SS/3B for years. Am I insane?
2007-11-07 13:19:27
140.   tommyl
137 When people say he has the potential to be the next Manny Ramirez but with a good attitude and fielding, I listen. Tabata and now Ajax are the real deal. Trading them is giving up potential superstars.
2007-11-07 13:31:40
141.   JL25and3
138 Accepting arbitration would actually be the one way that Rodriguez might be able to return to the Yankees. It would help mend the PR fences, an almost humble statement that, yes, he really does want to stay a Yankee; it would also allow the team to reopen negotiations without losing face.

It won't happen, of course. A one-year deal can only work against him, because he won't have as good a year next year.

2007-11-07 13:36:25
142.   Rob Middletown CT
tommyl,

I've been wondering what it would take to nab LaRoche too. I'd have to think Melky isn't good fit for the Dodgers (who apparently think Juan Pierre is a good player), though.

2007-11-07 13:47:36
143.   Raf
141 But still, could you imagine what Rodriguez & Boras would ask in arbirtation?
2007-11-07 14:27:33
144.   Shaun P
143 I don't know, I can imagine a lot.

;)

2007-11-07 14:44:07
145.   weeping for brunnhilde
13 "Moreover, I don't think his home-grownedness should be a factor in whether we keep Melky. Who cares? It's nice, and it helps make the case that the Yanks don't simply hire mercenaries, but what should be the deciding factor is whether a given player will help win games. That's it. Feel good stories are only nice if you also win."

All due respect, alterity, I care.

Of course, of course, there's a balance; I don't want homegrown players if they all really suck, but neither do I necessarily want to replace every player on my team with their statistical better.

For me being a fan, it's important that I have a relationship with the players. I don't have a problem with mercenaries because of what everyone else thinks, but rather because of what I think. There's a delicate balance. Too many such players compromises my passion for the team.

There's a familial element to following a team for me, an emotional connection. Winning per se doesn't do it for me, but rather watching a particular group of people win.

Randy Johnson was a case in point. I had no connection to the man, win, lose or draw. Sure, I was happy to see the team win when he pitched, but I really couldn't summon up the kind of interest in his starts that I do for Andy's Chien's, etc.

All of which is to say, I care.

2007-11-07 14:45:12
146.   weeping for brunnhilde
144 That's from Star Wars!

Luke: "If you were to rescue her, the reward would be..."

Han: "What?"

Luke: "Well more wealth than you can imagine!"

Han: "I don't know, I can imagine quite a lot."

2007-11-07 14:50:26
147.   weeping for brunnhilde
120 I don't know, I'll let you know if he signs on.

I know this is bordering on heresy around here, but I think guys are more than their stats. I believe there's such a thing as a team and team chemistry.

I believe that there are good fits and bad fits.

As a fan, I tend to be partial to guys of inferior talent who give everything they have over guys who rely on talent alone. Not in every case, of course, but generally speaking.

But to answer your question, I'd have to see him play day in and day out, with my own eyes to let you know my final opinion.

For now, I'm just suspicious, is all. Not intransigent, but suspicious.

2007-11-07 14:53:52
148.   weeping for brunnhilde
120 As I say, I have no first-hand knowledge of Cabrera's skills, but is it really a fact that he's well on his way to being a hall of famer?

Especially if he has a weight problem, isn't that a very plausible injury risk, something that could cause him to flame out in spectacular fashion?

I'm no MD, so I'm really asking.

2007-11-07 15:22:08
149.   tommyl
142 But wasn't there talk of them moving Pierre to a corner spot and trying to nab one of the FA CFs? If I were Cash, I would kick the tires on a swap for LaRoche, maybe Melky and a mid-level prospect? Money is about even and Melky is a proven CF that Joe loves. What do people think?
2007-11-07 16:00:33
150.   Shaun P
149 Great in theory, but the Dodgers were already next to last in the NL in home runs last year (129!), and they need more power. Joe is smart enough to know that an OF of Pierre-Melky-Kemp is likely to top out at 40 home runs or so (I'd say 1-10-29), which just isn't enough. Especially when the IF (with Nomar at 3B when not hurt) might not hit 50 combined. (Loney is a wonderful hitter, but doesn't necessarily have a ton of power; more like an Olerud type, IIRC.)

Of course, trading LaRoche for Melky might also prompt them to sign some big name free agent 3B who hit 50+ for Joe last year . . . so who knows?

Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2007-11-07 16:03:38
151.   alterity
145 Hey, it's fine to like Melky. I just don't see the whole superstar thing people here see in him. I also don't know where people here are getting their scouting reports. Tabata and Jackson are a couple of years away from what I've read. They may project as superstars (although I haven't seen anyone who says so definitively), but we just don't know, do we? So I say leverage what you can for the best of what's available. If that means taking a youngish outfielder whose primary contribution is his arm and his homegronwedness and packaging him with some guys who might be good (again, you don't know and you're lying or foolish if you say otherwise) and getting a generational hitter who has already shown over the course of several seasons to be one of the best at his trade, and thereby contribute to the team's success for perhaps a decade as well as defray the offensive loss of a star player that will be exacerbated by a likely decline in other contributors this year, well I say do it everyday and twice on Sunday.

Of course, he original question is what would you do, so if you're a fan you might have a different take than Cashman. I'm just glad that Cashman's job is to put together a winning team and not to find a way to keep players that make fans feel good (even if his effectiveness in said construction is sometimes questionable).

2007-11-07 16:04:34
152.   yankz
I'd love Andy Laroche. Right handed power- sounds good to me. He's definitely better than Melky.

Anyone know how his D is?

2007-11-07 16:13:08
153.   yankz
145 Weeping, I love you and all, but between the small ball and the not upgrading the team because you like the fact that Melky spent a few years in the Yankees' system, I'm glad you're not running the team. No offense of course, I just prefer Cash's Michael Corleone style.
2007-11-07 17:25:28
154.   ny2ca2dc
Here's a though: what about Jesus Montero being involved in a swap for Miggy Cabrera? He's young and possibly awesome and all, but probably not a catcher and many years off. Maybe that would let us keep Melky. Maybe IPK, Montero, Brett Gardner, & Keven Whelen?
2007-11-07 18:52:40
155.   Shaun P
154 Here's the question - does that package compare to what the Braves gave up for Teixeira? Someone somewhere - I forget who and where - suggested that is going the be the standard. Makes sense to me. But I'm not sure that deal meets it.

I just opened my browser (Yahoo! is my home page) and they said: "Report: Yanks to Make Offer to A-Rod"

I swore and clicked on the wrong article, I clicked so fast. What is Cashman thinking?!?!?!

The story? Yanks to offer A-Rod arbitration.

No $%#^in $#!^.

2007-11-07 18:56:47
156.   Shaun P
More from Pete Abe:

"Cashman also mentioned that he wanted to bring back Jose Molina and Luis Vizcaino. Presumably The Viz has had his arm re-attached by now."

I'm not aware of the BUC options out there, so I guess Molina is OK by me. I'm not sure Vizcaino is worth it, though. Maybe if they dumped Farnsworth.

2007-11-07 19:20:17
157.   51cq24
151 tabata is a rare talent, a 5 tool player who could become a superstar. don't tell us we're foolish because we pay attention even to the low minor leagues. tabata should not be thrown into a package just because we don't know for sure if he'll develop into his potential. he's the best position player we've had in the minors since soriano. cabrera is an incredible hitter, but the fact that he cannot play defense makes me wonder whether giving up our best positional prospect is such a great idea.
2007-11-07 20:17:54
158.   weeping for brunnhilde
153 ha ha hah ah ah a!!!

Don Corleone, I'm not!

I'm a romantic, what can I say?

ha ha hah ah a!!

Leave the gun, take the cannoli.

:)

2007-11-07 20:21:05
159.   weeping for brunnhilde
Oh, and btw, fwiw, my little rhapsody above wasn't about Melky or any players in particular, but just a general confession of a warm fuzzy preference for seeing unknown quantities blossom.

The basic point is that, if given the opportunity to trade our entire roster, position-by-position, for their statistical betters, I'd balk.

2007-11-07 21:42:50
160.   tommyl
155 Ha! I saw that too. In fact, my girlfriend sent it to me (one of the many reasons I love her) thinking that it meant A-Rod was coming back. Of course, then I started to explain the notion of Type A free agents and sandwich picks and I think she was regretting it.
2007-11-07 21:45:59
161.   tommyl
151 What are you talking about? Tabata is widely considered one of the best prospects in the minors. Not the Yankees' minors, the whole minors. Jackson is a bit lower on the radar but had a breakout season this year and has been continuing to rake in winter ball. He currently leads the Hawaiian league in extra base hits.

Of course, they might not be able to play in the majors for another year or two, so who cares. Potential superstar CFs just grow on trees. Especially ones that you can pay the major league minimum to for a number of years.

2007-11-07 21:51:45
162.   tommyl
Here's something to make the entire Banter's hearts sing, via the Times:

The Orioles also need a closer because of injuries to Chris Ray and Danys Báez and are interested in Kyle Farnsworth, who was developed by the Chicago Cubs when MacPhail and Manager Dave Trembley worked there.

Oh man, if Cashman manages to trade Farnsworth and a spare part or two for Miguel Tejada he is a better illusionist than that Mindfreak guy.

2007-11-08 08:44:41
163.   Rob Middletown CT
Not even the Orioles are that stupid.
2007-11-08 11:50:59
164.   weeping for brunnhilde
163 :)

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