Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
This just in: the Kansas City Royals don't suck. At least they don't suck as much as they usually do. The Yankees' next three series are against the Royals, Orioles, and White Sox and the Royals just might be the most dangerous of those three teams as they are currently tied in the AL Central with Chicago and just one game behind Baltimore in the overall standings, but have been much hotter than either of late.
Since the end of interleague play, the Royals have gone 13-8 while taking series from the Angels (a three-game sweep), Mariners, Red Sox, and Tigers. They also lost two of three to the Indians by a combined three runs and their only loss to Detroit came in ten innings. Over those 21 games, they've outscored their opponents 124-81, which works out to a .701 winning percentage (or a 15-6 record). By comparison, the Blue Jays are 11-13, the Orioles are 12-10 (not counting their suspended game with the Yankees), the White Sox are 14-12, and the Devil Rays are 5-20 since the end of interleague play.
Why have the Royals been so good against the league's best teams? Their bullpen has a lot to do with it. Led by a finally healthy Octavio Dotel (3.34 ERA, 10 SV) and Rule-5 steal Joakim Soria (2.34, 10 SV while Dotel was hurt), and rounded out by the setup duo of veteran righty David Riske (2.42 ERA) and 25-year-old lefty Jimmy Gobble (2.67), the Royals' pen has the sixth-best ERA in the American League, and things are only getting better as Zack Greinke is thriving in his new middle-relief role with a 1.88 ERA since June 10.
That strong performance by the pen means that the Royals can hold onto the leads handed to them by their surging offense, which scored 5.9 runs per game over that 21-game stretch. The leaders there have been veteran second baseman Mark Grudzielanek, who has hit .431/.453/.510 since coming off the DL on July 6, utility man Esteban German, who has hit .371/.443/.548 while starting 15 of those 21 games (initially in place of Grudzielanek at second, and since then spotting in at third base and pushing struggling überprospect Alex Gordon to first base), and rookie designated hitter Billy Butler, another top prospect, who has hit .373/.422/.590 since being recalled on June 20.
There's something amiss, however. It seems no one else has really hit much at all over those last 21 games, and, since Grudzielanek and German essentially split second base over that span, that means the offense has been riding on two hot bats, Butler's and the second baseman's. Catcher John Buck, who leads the team with 16 homers (more than twice the total of second-place Mike Sweeney), has slugged .524 over that stretch, but with only three taters and a .292 on-base percentage. Reggie Sanders has the next-best season line on the team, but injuries have limited him to 16 starts on the season. He was just reactivated from the DL a week ago and has made just three starts since then, going 2 for 10 in those games. First basemen Ryan Shealy and Mike Sweeney (surprise) are back on the DL. Ross Gload, who seemed redundant earlier in the season, has instead been merely punchless filling in for Shealy. Despite occasionally threatening to fulfill his promise, Alex Gordon has hit just .240/.301/.320 over those last 21 games. David DeJesus and Mark Teahen have been better than that, but not by enough. Tony Peña Jr. was never supposed to hit in the first place, and hasn't, but is still outperforming Emil Brown (.228/.288/.319 on the season).
Are the Royals all smoke and mirrors? Yeah, probably. Butler is the real deal, and German is a criminally neglected player who deserves to start somewhere (the Indians should be banging down the Royals' door for him), but Grudzielanek is obviously in way over his head, Gordon is really the only hitter likely to rise up to replace his production, and it just might be that Gordon isn't as ready for the Show as the Royals thought he was. The bullpen is likely to cool off at some point as well, which leaves this team in the hands of Butler, German, and Gil Meche. There's no doubt that the Royals are a better team than they were a year ago, but they're still a legitimate last-place team (despite the White Sox's best efforts). The only real danger is that they're having a lot of fun playing the spoiler right now, and there's nothing that says that's going to stop this week with the Yankees in town. There are still eight players on this Yankee team who remember the devastating sweep the team suffered in Kansas City in 2005.
Tonight, Roger Clemens looks to get the Yankee road trip off on the right foot against lefty Odalis Perez. Clemens has a 2.63 ERA over his last three starts despite taking the only loss in the Yankees' second-half-opening series in Tampa Bay. Perez, meanwhile, has a 7.47 ERA over his last three starts, but still managed to pick up a win against the Red Sox in his last outing (5 IP, 5 R) thanks to the four runs the Royals scored off Julian Tavarez in the fifth inning of that game. The big hits in that inning? Doubles by Grudzielanek and Butler. It sounds a bit extreme, but the key to this series may be making sure those two don't get anything to hit in big spots.
Kansas City Royals
2007 Record: 43-54 (.443)
2007 Pythagorean Record: 46-51 (.473)
Manager: Buddy Bell
General Manager: Dayton Moore
Home Ballpark (2007 Park Factors): Kauffman Stadium (107/106)
Who's Replacing Whom?
Ross Gload replaces Matt Stairs
Tony Peña Jr. replaces Angel Berroa
Alex Gordon replaces Doug Mientkiewicz
Billy Butler replaces Mike Sweeney (DL)
Jason Smith replaces Tony Graffanino
Jason LaRue replaces Paul Bako
Gil Meche replaces Mark Redman
Jorge De La Rosa takes Runelvys Hernandez's starts
Odalis Perez takes the starts of Denny Bautista, Joe Mays, and Brandon Duckworth (DL)
Brian Bannister replaces Luke Hudson (DL)
Octavio Dotel replaces Ambiorix Burgos
Joakim Soria replaces Andrew Sisco
David Riske replaces Elmer Dessens
Zack Greinke replaces Jeremy Affeldt
John Bale replaces Mike Wood
Ryan Z. Braun inherits Todd Wellemeyer's innings
25-man Roster:
1B – Ross Gload (L)
2B – Mark Grudzielanek (R)
SS – Tony Peña Jr. (R)
3B – Alex Gordon (L)
C – John Buck (R)
RF – Emil Brown (R)
CF – David DeJesus (L)
LF – Mark Teahen (L)
DH – Billy Butler (R)
Bench:
R - Esteban German (IF)
R - Reggie Sanders (OF)
L - Jason Smith (IF)
R - Jason LaRue (C)
Rotation:
R - Gil Meche
L - Jorge De La Rosa
R - Brian Bannister
L - Odalis Perez
Bullpen:
R - Octavio Dotel
R - Joakim Soria
R - David Riske
L - Jimmy Gobble
R - Zack Greinke
R - Joel Peralta
L - John Bale
R - Ryan Z. Braun
15-day DL: R - Mike Sweeney (1B), R - Ryan Shealy (1B), R - Scott Elarton*, R - John Thomson, R - Brandon Duckworth
60-day DL: R - Luke Hudson, R - Roman Colon, R - Joe Nelson, R - Angel Sanchez (IF)
Typical Lineup:
L - David DeJesus (OF)
R - Mark Grudzielanek (IF)
L - Mark Teahen (LF)
R - Billy Butler (DH)
L - Ross Gload (1B)
L - Alex Gordon (3B)
R - Emil Brown (RF)
R - John Buck (C)
R - Tony Peña Jr. (SS)
*Elarton will be activated to make Tuesday's start, with Bale or Braun likely to be optioned to triple-A to make room.
1.60 WHIP (38 hits and 16 walks in 32.2 innings)
Righties hitting .361/.414/.557 in 61 ABs
Lefties hitting .232/.321/.377 in 69 ABs
So he's not exactly been used as a LOOGY. Where the hell did the 2.67 ERA come from?
Bleh. Reminds me of Myers, except that he's a little worse and carries the right splits. ERA is useless for this guy. He's still the same old Jimmy Gobble.
"Bobby Abreu (3 of 27 against Perez) is sitting so Duncan can play. … Carrie Proctor had a baby today, a boy who was named Cooper. Scott Proctor will be away from the team until Wednesday"
I hope there's some hospital-league softball games Scott can pitch in so he doesn't feel lost while he's tending to his new boy.
Roger Clemens 2.03
Dan Quisenberry 2.40
Steve Farr 2.46
Bert Blyleven 2.64
Interesting... Farr sure captured lightning in a bottle for a few seasons.
"Hey hon, if you get knocked up right around Thanksgiving that'll mean (counts to nine) I can get a few days off at the end of July -- when I'll have pitched about 50 innings. I sure could use the time off."
I really don't know. Although Cabrera is definitely the best choice to fill in for Abreu in right field, as runners could walk to third on hits to Matsui or Damon in right.
"Daddy, who's the all time home run king?"
"That would be Alex Rodriguez, son."
"Didn't he play for the Yankees? Why did they let him go?"
"That's a good question. You see, there were these newspapers called tabloids..."
"Daddy?"
"Yes son?"
"What's a newspaper?"
re: Damon in CF vice Right, it's gotta be about the arm, I mean, a deep single to right with Damon there could be a frigin triple. CF hides his arm best.
mlb.tv's Royals feed is putting me to sleep. is anyone at that stadium?
also, no way abreu makes that catch....
OKOKOKOK, or he strikes out. or gets a hit. or walks, or perhaps makes an out while putting the ball in play. but will not get HBP, no way.
Cleveland with 1st & 2nd, no out.
Odalis Perez: Still Terrible.
Man, Shelly running is quite a sight.
Signed, Captain Obvious.
bases loaded, one out against lester...
Not yet, but its Sizemore, so I expect very little here.
Nope, gotta be a pro game.
Damn, nice Rocket.
I know it's stupid to even broach the topic, but if Roger puts up a solid #2/3 starter type year, maybe even better than that, like a 3.6-ish ERA, what does he do next year, and do the Yankees go around one last, last, last time? Probably only if Moose could get disappeared, too many good kids that will need spots (who'da thunk!)
Why, when a guy makes $20m/yr, can't you fine him for lazy, shitty-ass play? I hate watching these guys shit on the game.
I see things are going our way (knock on wood), but what the hell is Melky doing in right?
For the Yankees the answer is 1995 with Pettitte, Hitchkock, and Kamieniecki.
Was impressive ab by Penito
The Royals AFLAC question is kind of lame though: name the three managers who won an MVP and a Manager of the Year.
Joe Torre
Frank Robinson
Don Baylor
There are over 2,000,000 people in the KC Metro area.
I got it from Wikipedia, but the actual Census Bureau source is here: http://tinyurl.com/2wokk8
Tell me about it. We had this discussion the other day. It would be great if the fans could actually organize a true boycott. There are two minor league teams in the area, if the fans want to watch baseball of the same caliber as the Royals. It is really the only way anything will ever change in KC.
I'll bet you meet a lovely class of people.
No comments guys?
http://www.thinkkc.com/3_locating/3a_kc_profile/3a02_population.htm
Also, having one of the most storied franchises in the game across the state dips into that a bit, I would imagine.
Metro my friend, "Metro." In other words, short driving distance to the stadium.
Derek gave it a ride...
As of 2000, estimates are across the board that KC Metro has grown considerably since then. That, without taking into account the significant number of undocumented persons who don't need an ID to get into the game.
With California?
Look at tonight. Almost a sell-out for the Royals, and the crowd doesn't appear to be ridiculously pro-Yankees as it has in other Yankees road games. If there is a reason for fans in KC to go to a baseball game, they will.
Still, a team in my area (Raleigh-Durham) would have a comparable fan base and yet has never been discussed as a site for relocation. Sometimes population doesn't dictate fan base size (see: Marlins).
I used to think that about the Marlins too, until my brother noved down there. It rains almost every day at that stadium, game or no game. And although that is not the entire reason for poor attendance, who wants to sit in the rain at every game?
The Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater Metro area has quite a few people, and sell more tickets that does Florida because they play indoors. Not that I am defending that monstrosity, but they could field a decent team there too, with better ownership.
Either way, it doesn't matter until the fans stop believing the propaganda that its their market that is to blame for their ineptitude. But that will be difficult to accomplish. As you know, the Russian's are coming, Socialism is bad, Al Queada is in your home town, and the Canadian medical system is broken. Ahh propaganda, thy aim is always true.
Dave Duncan just said Shelley probably has more plate discipline than he ever had.
Imagine that.
Agreed in part. I live now in a County with more than 10,000,000 people, and they couldn't fill an NFL stadium here, while pulling nearly 80,000 to 100,000 to two different stadiums each week to watch the Bruins and Trojans.
His shoulders or something...
Very funny.
Why did he dive after that?
What a terrible play.
And what's Jorgie doing taking third?
Talk about a guy needing a water break around second...Posada is slooooow.
Posada is on the movie poster for "Adventures in Baserunning." The rating is R for extreme bad judgment in almost any circumstance.
It's been awhile since he made a doozie, though.
I have a hazy recollection of a game maybe in April or May where he did something preposterous.
Did he try to take third on a grounder to the left side?
Can't recall, but man was it egregious.
Up and away: .386 (highest of any zone)
Middle outside: .382
Down and away: .208
He doesn't hit very well on balls down in the zone, in general. In fact, Down and In is his worst zone of all, which is weird for a lefty.
Just a few more numbers to mull as you continue your assertions about Cano.
Cruising along.
The 2 minute short to open was Kay's "A-Rod Has Trouble With Pop-Ups" 'RainMan' performance, which was an Emmy nominee, btw...
Those numbers don't mean a whole lot to me, but I'll keep them in mind.
I'll try to be attentive to what he does with up and away v. down and away.
Where was that last one?--the reason I brought it up is because he pulled the outside pitch (middle-up?) for a weak bouncer to first with a Jorgie hanging out on third.
.375 this month
Man, we were playing some contemptible baseball then.
See 122
Cano's spray chart, which can be found here:
http://tinyurl.com/yqzmad
Does suggest that Cano hits a greater percentage of his grounders to the left side. It does not break down singles by grounder/fly ball, but the spray of his singles seems pretty even. His extra base-hits are mostly pulled, which suggests that Cano might be sacrificing the chance to get a single (by poking it the other way) for the chance to get more than that (by pulling it). The singles chart also suggests that he is capable of hitting the ball anywhere on the field.
I don't want this game to become interesting.
Please.
Woo-hoo!
Looks like I missed most of a pretty interesting game (just caught the infield hit, DP, groundout in the bottom of the sixth).
Yep. So, will Joe actually dump at least one useless middle reliever when Giambi comes back in two weeks to keep Duncan on the squad? I will venture a guess and say no.
God, I like Derek more all the time, if that's possible.
And speaking of, how about 'Entourage' last night...
He's a little NYC in the midst of RSN.
I lived in NYC for a while, and I don't remember it being filled with whiny pussies who love to show pitchers up but act like you tried to shoot them with a Glock when you get within 2 feet of their heads with a fastball, but I could be wrong.
He may have grown up there, but he sure as hell wouldn't have made it very far if not for the babying he recieved as a result of his ability to hit a baseball.
I believe he is on a mission from God.
Oops.
Well anyway, I think when he met with George, he saw his own motality.
I went to a game years ago at the Stadium against Cleveland and Manny had his own cheering section behind me. It was pretty endearing, though at the time I was kind of annoyed. El Duque got shelled, capped by a grand slam off the bat of Thome.
It was an awesome shot.
He swung the bat so nice and easy, so effortlessly that I was shocked as the ball kept carrying and carrying to left-center.
It was like Thome didn't even put his whole body into the swing, but looked like all arms.
It was something to see.
But yeah, I do like that Manny's from Washington Heights. I think he actually went to the same high school as my dad.
Cooper or Flame?
— Cap'n Obvious's sidekick...
Ah, the heck with it.
But I think Rocket has a few outs left in him.
Nice job.
Whoa, dangerous battage.
Yea, he's been washed up for years. He and Jorge both, junk, junk I tell you!
Indeed.
He used to have one, only he wore a WWII infantry helmet.
It better not be confidence.
But seriously, give me Roger over anyone out there but MO, today, last week, tomorrow, and right now.
He fouled it off.
That's his A-swing right there.
Funny, too, because that one was more over the plate than the one he bounced out on in the previous ab.
This one was a much better candidate for pulling, yet he put his A-swing on it.
Who can figure this kid out?
It wasn't inside. It was pretty fat, but it was pullable, yet he chose not to.
That hit came on a pitch that was half a foot inside. He DerekJetered the ball into left field.
He's 24 in his second full season. He's still learning. And that's scary.
Meanwhile his defense is fantastic.
I don't know. The previous ab was clearly outside to my eyes and this last one didn't look nearly so inside as you think it was.
Hmmm...
The kid looked good. 2 runs, 6 hits.
I mean literally, I can't figure him. I don't get why those two ab were so different.
How would you analyze those two ab?
But I would guess that he doesn't have much of a plan. He sees the ball and hits the ball. And he just has good instincts.
That caused problems when he was jumping at the first pitch because pitchers started throwing junk early in the count. Now that he's being more selective (BB and K up), I think you're really going to start seeing better results.
But he's still learning about what pitches are "his".
Beautiful, Viz.
Uh oh. Isn't the umpire going to warn Vizcaino now? You aren't allowed to throw so many strikes in the eighth inning, right?
Hear the dumb fuck in KC say it was 10 inches outside?
Now let's see if we can solve Nolan Ryan Braun.
Except that it's more than just seeing the ball and hitting the ball; it's seeing the ball and choosing which swing to put on it.
The thing I don't get is why, in that last ab, he just let'er rip with an opposite-field swing on that first fastball on the outer half of the plate, which was a textbook swing, and couldn't have pleased me more, whereas in the previous ab he couldn't apply that same swing to the pitch he grounded out to first on.
I guess it's hard for me to figure out if he just can't tell which part of the plate the ball is and guesses or if he just decides when he comes up to the plate: "I'm going to pull the ball, no matter what." or "I'm going the other way, no matter what."
Because this last ab, he came out first-pitch opposite field and indeed, ended up with a hit to the opposite field, like it was his plan all along.
You know what I mean?
Nice hitting by Melky there, btw.
That should be as mathematically sound as general relativity.
no bunting.
I think we discussed this in an earlier thread, right? In this situation, I think the bunt was a strategically correct move. It seriously increases the win expectancy, if successful.
Sweet. Big rbi, very very big.
Thank the maker.
Don't stop now, Bombers...
I would love to read the logic. Not saying I doubt it, but would just love to see the numbers.
Of course, that's all things being equal (i.e. neutral batters, pitchers etc.). I'd argue any move that takes the bat out of A-Rod's hands at this point (not to mention Derek's) is not as high percentage, but I can't really back that up.
I'll give you the numbers in a few minutes.
That should be illegal.
The whole numbers obsession is that math degree.
I have a good feeling about this.
Find a book called the Physics of Baseball.
Basically, the hitter has to choose to swing when the ball is 1/3 of the way to the plate.
In order to be successful, the hitter has to be be very good at pitch selection as the pitch leaves the pitcher's hand. And that's where I think Cano is still learning.
His choice is swing or not swing. That doesn't mean he can't make adjustments. It just means those adjustments are based on where he "thinks" the ball will be, not where it ends up. The hitter is mid-swing when the pitch is 20 feet from the plate.
So pitch identification is where alot of the learning is, especially if a guy has depended on a bit faster hands and now has to start to learn to read pitchers and their offerings. Cano, in trying to hit everything, has a much harder time, I think, at pitch selection. By contrast, a guy like Bonds knows his quadrant and what pitches will look like as they either come into it or away from it. Cano has to learn to identify pitches better and be more selective (by knowing the strengths of his swing). Right now I think he's further along on the former than the latter (i.e., he still swings at bad pitches rather than identifying them and letting them go by).
Long story short: Where it looks like he changes his swing, he simply hasn't figured out which pitches he should be swinging at.
How great is Jorgie?
Hmmm?
How great is he?
He's just so balanced, every time he swings.
Remember how easy it used to be to get him off-balance?
He's really a different hitter.
Them's insurance runs!
With second and third, one out: .970.
Minimal difference.
Check it out, here's the win expectancy finder:
tinyurl.com/yqjgz2
All academic now, huh?
Oh wait...
Okay, the idiotic error wasn't that much fun. I thought KC didn't suck Cliff lied to us.
I'll think that over.
Who is coming in in the 9th for us, Villone?
Yep, Villone.
The big ab was Alex going up the middle.
That was the key.
As long as they do that, they can't be held down.
Those disgusting "nachos" with cheeze-whizz on them?
But that A-Rod rbi was indeed my favorite of the game, so with you there.
291 Yeah, huh?
Ah, now I can relax! V&V finish for us, I like. Mo rests, Rocket rocks, the boys finally rake at the end... real real nice.
Here's to a homerless night!
More hits tomorrow!
Where's that miracle youtube the RLYW guys always link to?
But hitting comes down to "three eye blinks".
That is, blink your eyes three times as fast as you can. That's how quickly the ball gets to the plate in MLB as it leaves the pitcher's hand.
The hitter has the first eye blink to decide whether to swing.
The second eye blink to make smaller adjustments.
By the third eye blink there's no time.
(Each eye blink is about 200 millisecond).
So the pitchers who better hide their pitches have an advantage. I think the book mentioned Maddux. He's perfected making his fastball and changeup motion identical. The worse pitchers do a worse job of hiding these things.
By contrast, the hitter has to "see" the pitch as it leaves the hand. There are lots of tricks they use - spin, finger placement, arm motion (direction, speed). And I bet the better hitters have a better "dictionary" of what to look for in a given pitcher.
Of course, great movement on a pitch makes it that much harder to read. But even then the hitters make adjustments. That's where the pitchers has to adjust back.
As an example, I think of all the hitters against Mo who started setting up away from the plate so the fat part of the bat would be more likely to hit the cutter as it cut. In response Mo learned to throw that straight fastball on the outside corner.
Any case, this is the stuff I love about baseball.
292 As long as it doesn't involve his hand, sounds cool to me >;)
Homeruns are great, but they're a cruel mistress. Here today, gone tomorrow.
I know RBIs are a stupid stat and all, but A-Rod is on pace for close to 170 or so. When was the last time someone had 170 RBI in a season? Manny was up around 165 or so when he was with Cleveland iirc.
At any rate, if I were drafting a team, that's the kind I'd try to create.
He's been uncannily consistent this year, though his homeruns are down.
I'll take this model Jorgie to the homer-hitting, .265 Jorgie any day of the week.
No contest.
309 I grew up in that third town. It had it's pros and cons, but whatevah...
Again, I feel like last year he wouldn't have done that. He'd have struck out instead, or popped up or whatever. I didn't feel comfortable with him up last year because he could be pitched to.
This year he's a different hitter and I feel quite comfortable having him up there.
What's most amazing to me is that these things are really just very, very subtle differences (in vision, approach, learning). But I know growing up I always preferred the Mattingly approach - line drives all over the field.
He was impossible to pitch to and even his outs tended to be well-struck.
And he never, ever struck out.
After growing up with that, everyone else kind of pales.
I loved watching him just hammer that outside pitch into the left-field corner.
He was the real deal.
Not offering that as "proof" so much as suggestion.
;)
And the better pitching you face, say in the playoffs for example, the even more nothing the nothing becomes. Great pitchers on playoff teams can do a whole lot more to prevent the HR, so having enough guys who handle the bat well and hit balls all over the zone, are more likely to get hits and ultimately score runs. You must also have power threats in your lineup, but it is near impossible to pitch to a lineup with 6 hitters capable of putting the ball in play almost every PA. Just my two cents.
If I am facing a Pedro circa 1998 or Haren, or Carpenter, or even Clemens, I'd sure as hell rather have 6 Derek Jeter's or 6 Don Mattingly's, rather than 6 Jim Thome's or 6 Adam Dunn's.
Not to be overly punctilious, but, umm, Arod is both a line drive hitter, doubles hitter and a power threat, as was Mantle, which wasn't the discussion they were having. I am fairly sure everyone would rather have 9 Arods or Mantles rather than 9 Ichiros.
So Farns is officially outta there?
Of course, as good as Pedro was, he was no longer the pitcher he was in 1999.
35 homeruns and 35 strikeouts?
If so, that's the first player I'd go after.
Scary thing is, he comes back in a couple of weeks. Am I crazy to wonder if his return will help or hurt the club? What will happen with CF? Will Damon move to 1B, and bench Phillips, while sending Duncan back to AAA, or can we dump some useless reliever and keep Duncan as our PH (assuming he plays well for the next two weeks, otherwise this is moot), and Phillips as late inning defense. Then what the hell to do when Dougy comes back?
These are the questions I should not have to ask but for the fact that almost every club now carries three more pitchers than they should, while citing not one spec of anything other than anecdotal evidence that pulling these starters and using a five man rotation is preventing injuries. This whole carrying eight relievers, four of which on most every club are useless, just drives me batty.
HR hitters tend to draw more walks than line drive hitters which brings their OBPs up to (and often beyond) the higher average singles hitters.
Alas, no, I just meant outta the 8th-inning role.
Has The Cruel and Unusual Reign of Kyle "8th-Inning Guy!" Farnsworth officially come to an end?
I don't know.
I'll give you Mantle. I understand your point there, but don't agree completely. Further, Arod's claim to fame is not HR's. Hr's are what people focus on, most notably the media. Considering he is on pace for well over 3000 hits, 500 doubles, 300 SB's and a BA of over .300, I'd say he's a lot more than just a power hitter. All this without mentioning stellar defense, and great instincts and work ethic on the basepaths.
Well, I guess it is only July. They have some time to figure out roles, unlike the plug and play approach to Sheffield and Matsui last year.
Truth is, I don't know either. I enjoy watching Duncan and Phillips play hard with youth (well sort of in Phillips case), and enthusiasm while the team wins, it might not be as much fun if we were losing. Then I might be begging for Giambi.
I just hate middle relievers I suppose. I mean you have one resource in baseball, and each team shares it, twenty five men. It only makes sense to make the most of the one thing all teams share, and have the highest quality player in each of these twenty five spots. That should appeal to Bill James worshipers. So, you shouldn't have thirteen pitchers, eight of which are relievers, and four of them have little or no value, whilst shipping a Duncan or Phillips, or Melky back to the minors. It makes no sense to me, and in terms of mathmatics, I bet dumping three releivers and adding three position players of value would result in more of the commodity everyone seeks, wins. Dump the fifth starter, as he is garbage on most every club, and rotate that spot around between your best relief pitchers. Dump three of them, and see what you have in the minors in terms of talent at MLB level.
Wait, they did try something like that once, for I don't know, 100 years or so.
I like the idea, especially since, as you point out, half the bullpen rots on the pine.
Arod may hit 800 HRs. I think that puts him in the "sluggers" list. He strikes out too much to be a "line-drive contact hitter" (130 per 162 games). A lot of his doubles are long fly balls. Meanwhile his carer BA is 306, which is behind quite a few "line-drive contact hitters" of his generation.
His defense and baserunning have zero to do with him bring a slugger or not-a lot of sluggers were also good defenders and baserunners (Mantle, Ruth when he was young, etc.)
The great Yankee teams led the league in HRs/SLG most of their championship years.
I don't want to argue. We agree, but look at it differently.
I would add a question about your HR/SLG league leader stats in Championship years, you mean like 1996-2000?
It is just a horrible misuse of a valuable resource, especially on a team like the Yankees, who can afford to fill those bench spots with value over and above what most any middle reliever will provide. But I keep hope alive that just because "this is the way it is," that doesn't extend that this will always be the way it is. Quite frankly, because it is a misuse or resources, and eventually it will change. Baseball cannot continue to pay pitchers that should be shuffling papers in Tommy Maddox's insurance office around forever. And every game that is put in their hands is a disservice to the fans which support that particular team. You wouldn't ask Tiger Woods to play with some 20 year old McGregors, so you shouldnt put a baseball game in the hands of a third rate pitcher.
Anytime bro, anytime. Have a great night, and brace for the fireworks coming across the bay at you from Newsome's office.
People who like line drive hitters tend to focus on batting average, and they tend to see a consistent high BA as the mark of a hitter who can't be easily shut down. While intuitive, this misses the real issue. The most important offensive statistic in baseball is On Base Percentage, which is essentially the measure of the number of times a player doesn't make an out. In the most extreme case, a team full of players with 1.000 OBP would never make outs and score an infinite number of runs, even more than a team full of BArry Bonds with all the magic juice they could ingest.
It generally doesn't matter whether high OBP comes from hits or walks, so while a Giambi may seem to be less consistent than an Ichiro because the former bats only .250 and goes into prolongued power slumps, he actually gets on base as much or more than his slaphitting counterpart. Thus, Giambi is every bit as consistent as Ichiro.
Now, one could argue that it's better to have a base hits than walks, and in extreme cases this is true. It is obviously more productive to have a hypothetical player with a .400 OBP whose BA is also .400, than a player with .400 OBP/.300 BA., or even the hypothetical extreme of a .400 OBP/.000 BA. But in the real world that's not the case. Most players experience more fluctuation in .BA (which is dependent to a degree on luck) than on walk rates. Thus, a player with a high BB rate will tend to have a more consistent OBP than a high BA low BB player. In this case, your line drive hitting Mattingly (who never walked all that much) will actually, over the long hall, be less consistent than swing-and-miss specialist Giambi.
I agree with your analysis insofar as Mattingly vs. Giambi is concerned, but what statistic (or God forbid, there isn't one, Runs is an inadequate measurement, and any other lacking efficacy is specious at best, as are many new measures which baseball folks may embrace, but mathematicians dismiss. OPS for example, which is simply the dumbing down of two seperate and different measures, which most outside of baseball dispute as not mathematically sound), to account for what the player does when he is on base. Giambi for example is a horrid baserunner, cannot take advantage of many passed balls, and cannot steal bases, and generally suffers from a dearth of intuition and skill on the basepaths. While Ichiro and Giambi may have equivalent OBP numbers, I would argue that Ichiro will score more runs, have an effect on the game which cannot be measured accurately, and put players in a position for RBI that Giambi would not. Further, Ichiro can confuse and distract pitchers with his baserunning, while if Giambi would only go station to station, he would be adequate, but because he cannot even do that correctly, he is less than adequate once reaching 1B.
Interesting debate, and when Giambi was in his prime I would take him over Ichiro hands down, but because he is nothing more than an occasional power threat who walks less often, who can cause more harm than good on the basepaths, I'd take Ichiro on my team. I think this is where I depart from many who believe that if it cannot be neasured it should be ignored. While many aspects of this game can be measured accurately, many cannot, and in my opinion should not de dismissed because they cannot be plugged into a formula.
And what to do if you are down by one run and a runner is at second? In that case you want Ichiro right? The walk generally means nothing, in fact, it makes the defense's ability to make an out during the next AB more likely. I think over the course of a seson, the instances where a walk will be meaningless greatly outnumber the situations where a hit will produce a run. While Giambi's OBP is wonderful to have, in terms of production and limiting outs, I think the .300 hitter with the .400 OBP is more valuable than the .250/.400 hitter.
I disagree with your assessment f Giambi a an occasional power threat who walks less often. If you look, his BB rates are pretty steady, except in his two injury seasons:
2007: 25 (45 games = 83/ 150 games)
2006: 110
2005: 108
2004: 42 (80 games = 78/ 150 games)
2003: 129
2002: 109
2001: 129
2000: 137
1999: 105
As for "occasional power threat, with the Yankees he has been pretty steady there too except in injury seasons. SLG: .598 (2002), .527 (2003), .379 (2004), .535 (2005), .558 (2006), .436 (2007).
When healthy, Giambi is still very potent and gets on base a ton. Just about the only reason I would choose Ichiro over him is age and health, not inherent offensive skill set.
I've though about this a fair amount lately. Actually, I got thinking about baserunning when I learned that in teh 1880s players were creditied for stolen bases when the advanced extra bases on a hits (for example, if you went from first to third on a single, you got a SB). I wonder if that isn't better than the current practice of awarding SB more restrictively.
So, I was trying to cook up a stat that tentatively called "bases obtained". A plyer would get one BOBT for each walk, each base earned on a hit (this would reward speedy guys who picked up doubles and triples, but overvalues HRs), each base advanced on a SB or sac fly, and each additional base obtained on a basehit. You would then subtract one base for every caught stealing or thrown out trying to advance on a fly ball, fielders choice, or extra base on a hit.
I'm not sure this would prove anything, but it would be interesting to add up the numbers for a bunch of players for a whole season, to see how much they varied, or if they conformed to our expectations of whose a good baserunner.
Of course, there are all kinds of problems with the methodology. Maybe basehits shouldn't be included. Or maybe only doubles and triples, since those require more base running skills. This stat also wouldn't measure the impact that a runner has on the opposing pitcher, but then again I'm not sure how one could determine that obectively. Also, for all we know it's just as distracting to a pitcher to walk a batter like Giambi (or maybe it tires him out more) than it is to have Ichiro dancing off first base.
No one would argue that's not the case, assuming their SLG is similar enough.
Don't worry about being "that guy." You have given me quite a bit to think about. I appreciate the discussion, I'm just sorry I dozed off last night before reading your posts.
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