I believe the Joe Torre era is in its final hours.

Amazingly, with defense and attitude included, Hillenbrand (this year) may actually be a worse option than Cairo!

Ah, remember the halcyon days of c. 2000, when talking heads actually compared Hillenbrand and Soriano?

1 A large part of me hopes so. A small part of me wonders if Cashman isn't going to hold out, try to get a big bat - I'm not sure who - and see if things will right themselves, a la 2000. It wouldn't surprise me. But I don't see both a David Justice-type bat and (more importantly?) a Glenallen Hill-type bat available.

2 Rivalry-fueled hype, maybe? They weren't comparable then, and aren't comparable now. Signing Hillenbrand and expecting anything positive could be on the level of the T-Ball Long signing of last year. I suppose Cashman has to try, when the only other option Torre will use is Cairo.

2 I do indeed remember those days. Man, that was a long time ago.

I seem to recall that the comparison centered around the fact that neither one ever met a pitch he didn't like.

3 Oh my God. We did have Terrence Long, didn't we? The horror, the horror.

And Kenny Lofton, too. Remember Kenny?

And we already have a David Justice-type bat. His name is Bobby Abreu and he came over last year. Of course, DJ was great his first year and lousy his second too, although DJ had injuries as an excuse, iirc.

Good times...

"Tonight the Yankees look to continue their philanthropic tour of the gloomy gusses of baseball. "

Pure poetic genius, Cliff. Hats off.

We play today, we get humiliated today.

Q: Do you think a team with Mariano Rivera performs better or worse in 1-run games?

A: Since 2001 the Yankees have been worse in 1-run games than they have been overall.

NYY win % in 1-run games since '01: .561
NYY win % in games decided by > 1 run: .602
NYY win % overall win % since '01: .591

The Yanks have played 271 1-run games since '01 so it's a fairly large sample. I just think it's interesting that the team with the best reliever in history and one of the top 5 relievers each of the past 6 years is WORSE not better in one-run games.

Any ideas on how the NYY could be worse in 1-run games with Mo on the team?

7 Good teams (Win% .591 = 95 wins/season) tend to score lots of runs and give up few runs, resulting in many lopsided victories and few lopsided defeats. The games that they tend to lose will be close--indeed, they will be in most of their games even if they lose.

Anyway, the real question is not to compare the Yankees' Win% in 1-run games to themselves, but to the rest of the league. Is the teams 1-run win % (.561) significantly higher than other teams'--that might say something about the relationship between the greatest closer of all time and winning close games.

7 They lose a bunch of one-run games with Mo watching from the bullpen, waiting for the save which never comes?

8 Here are a few AL teams for comparison.

NYY win % in 1-run games since '01: .561
NYY win % in games decided by > 1 run: .602
NYY win % overall win % since '01: .591

LAA win % in 1-run games since '01: .527
LAA win % in games decided by > 1 run: .557
LAA win % overall win % since '01: .549

BOS win % in 1-run games since '01: .540
BOS win % in games decided by > 1 run: .581
BOS win % overall win % since '01: .570

MIN win % in 1-run games since '01: .570
MIN win % in games decided by > 1 run: .548
MIN win % overall win % since '01: .553

Any thoughts? I still think that the Yankees should 'close out' a far greater percentage of 1-run games where they are leading because of Rivera. San Diego has a big advantage in 1-run games with Trevor Hoffman. Why doesn't NYY with Mo?

SDP win % in 1-run games since '01: .546
SDP win % in games decided by > 1 run: .462
SDP win % overall win % since '01: .486

What are some possible correlations I could run with the data? Save rate of closers? Team defense? I wonder why there is such a variation in how teams do in 1-run games.

4 Ah, but Kenny Lofton had something to contribute. Instead, Teaman kept starting Bernie.

1 As we realized yesterday - If Joe sticks, Cashman has cover. I suspect Joe sticks through October. I hope I'm wrong.

11 I think you overestimate Lofton's potential. At that point he was a better defensive outfielder than Bernie, but not a good one. And he wasn't a better hitter.

Prediction: We trade Shelly Duncan to LAA for Hillebrand. Duncan catches lightning in a bottle and hits 15 HR in the second half of the season. Hillebrand, along with Kyle Farnsworth leads the league in breaking bats in the dugout.

10 i think 8 gives you the answer stated very simply and correctly. 1 run games can be 1 run victories or 1 run losses. it isn't all on the closer. if the yankees are down 8-7 going into the 9th, mariano probably never even pitches. in fact, even if it's 8-8 going into the 9th he sometimes doesn't pitch, and they lose by a run.

12 That's the point. Lofton should have been the CF. Bernie would have been the DH.

Indeed, I'd argue that Lofton has been more valuable over the last four years than Bernie. And Lofton is still contributing an average CF - bat and glove - at age 40.

One-run records tend to snap back to .500, not to a team's overall winning percentage, thus playing .561 ball in one-run games is an impressive mark likely due in large part to Rivera, not a low mark achieved despite his presence.

Also, the issue in 2004 wasn't so much Lofton (.275/.346/.395) vs. Bernie (.262/.360/.435), but Lofton vs. Ruben Sierra (.244/.296/.456).

Somebody wake up Cashman and tell him to fix the team.

DL Damon - call up Duncan.
Play Duncan every day at 1B for two weeks.
Send down Nieves - call up Omir Santos at C.
Send down Bruney, call up Britton.
Trade Myers for anything, call up Henn
Trade Villone for anything, call up Edwar Ramirez
Mix and match ARod, Jeter, Abreu, Posada and Matsui at DH
Play Santos 1 day a week
Play Cairo 2 days a week
Play KT 3 days a week
Always bring in Mariano in tie games in the 9th, 8th if rested
New rule - no RP can pitch on consecutive days except Mo
New rule - Miguel Cairo can never bat higher than 7th
New rule - Jeter bats leadoff

I can live with the Yankees losing but I'm damn tired of seeing the same stupid flaws cost us again and again. Go young, go hard, go smart. I can live with that kind of team but not what I've been seeing. It's been a sad run.

10 Cliff beat me to it 16. But let's look more closely at your numbers--SD [w% .546] has not had a bigger advantage in 1-run games than the Yankees [w% .561]. Moreover, if you look at the cross section of teams that you present, there is little pattern overall other than the Yankees seem to have demonstrated excellence in both close and not-so-close games.

I am willing to complain about Torre's use of the BP, and I may agree that it has cost games. But, the numbers you present don't add much to the case, nor prove that his mismanagement is worse than that found on other teams.

Cliff - I'm with you on 2004.

DH Bernie > DH Ruben
CF Lofton > CF Bernie

And of course, Lofton would have been the CF they needed in 2005 (instead of the Bernie/Womack/Crosby monster).

See, the problems with Yankee management have existed for a long time. It's the reason they lost in the postseason for the last 5 years (2002-2006): Poor replacements for players lost and mismanagement of the players they had.

17 I'm not sure why Bruney deserves to get sent out before Farns or Vizcaino. He puts runners on, like them, but he's much better at keeping them from scoring.

19 Did Tony play CF? I thought he was more at the corners but my memory may be hazy.

Man, you know its going bad when you think back to the days of Womack as the good times.

Can any reporter please take Joe to task for bringing in Mo last night to "get work in"? as opposed to getting that work in, in a tie game.

Or hell, even just forgetting which days Mo has pitched on.

Kenny Lofton in CF:
2002: 105 RATE
2003: 104 RATE
2004: 105 RATE (Yankees)
2005: 110 RATE
2006: 93 RATE
2007: 90 RATE

Bernie in CF:
2002: 89 RATE
2003: 93 RATE
2004: 90 RATE
2005: 97 RATE
2006: 78 RATE

22 Why would they do that? That would mean doing their job but risk losing their access.

23 Wait, has this team gotten so bad that we are just back to debating Lofton vs. Bernie?

What other fun debates can we cook up? How about Mantle vs. DiMaggio for CF?

25 Yup. More interesting to me than the current variety.

Besides, the point was: "[T]he problems with Yankee management have existed for a long time...Poor replacements for players lost and mismanagement of the players they had."

The difference is: The more players that have had to be replaced, the worse the team has gotten. The GM has continued to plug huge holes with uncreative (Damon) or downright dumb solutions (Womack, Long, Cairo, Nieves). And the more power the GM got, the worse still the solutions. Everyone rails against Tampa, but if more people were involved in the decision making, Cairo would not be the starting 1B.

25DiMaggio in CF:
1947 91 RATE
1948 98 RATE
1949 107 RATE
1950 92 RATE
1951 102 RATE

Mantle in CF:
1952 97 RATE
1953 97 RATE
1954 98 RATE
1955 102 RATE

Clearly Stengel made the correct call in 1952. Also, any statistic that rates either Mantle or DiMaggio as average is worthless.

25 Meanwhile, go look at what other options have been out there.

Look at what Toronto gave up for Overbay - it was the Randy Johnson pu pu platter.

Look at what it would have cost to sign Huff and Gomez and Lieberthal for a respectable bench.

Look at the relievers in the Yankee system.

That's 1B, the bench, and the bullpen. The future wasn't forsaken. The money spent is less than Pavano's contract.

27 Why, cause you saw Mantle and DiMaggio play with your own eyes?

Suffice it to say - they weren't outstanding because of their gloves.

29 What difference would it make if 27 saw them play in person? A valuable metric should not need personal forensic observation for it to work, and indeed it should be able to remove personal and anecdotal bias from the estimation of defensive prowess ("I saw the Mick make a great catch--I know he was really good in CF").

Yet EVERYTHING I have ever read by anyone who saw DiMaggio and Mantle play agree that they were excellent CFs--especially DiMaggio--at least before injuries took their toll on both. So, what to believe when evluating the defensive abilities of players from bygone eras?

Oh dear lord, I've created a monster :)

Someone needs to write the biography of Brian Cashman.

How an intern rose to be GM of the most powerful organization in sports.

How he lasted for more than ten years.

How he managed to consistently deflect blame without appearing as doing so.

How he wrestled control from the Tampa cabal and left the impression that all problems were of their making.

How he fails to see the importance of the bench.

How he thinks singular positions can be sub-par because the rest of the team is spectacular.

How he tried to manage away from Torre's weaknesses and toward his strengths.

26 More people involved in the decision making? The real problem with Cash has been his ridiculous deference to Torre...hence we have the tragedy of Cairo, the second coming of Donnie Baseball in Joe's eyes. For fear of having to work with Piniella (who apparently feels the same way about him as Zimmer publically stated...Cash is not a baseball guy and, ipso facto, brings nothing to the table), Cash urged George to let Torre finish his deal, thinking he could Torre-proof the roster. Well, the injuries to the rotation scotched that quickly and the bullpen over-use doubled down the damage. The rest is the usual lunacy from Torre and, as much as I like Cash, the buck really stops with him. One of the few sane things George has declaimed. Sorry, Cash, you screwed the pooch.

31 Don't apologize-- I was hoping for a topic like this to lighten the mood and change the discourse for a day or two!

How is RATE calculated, anyway? Or is it one of the secret stats whose formula is hidden?

30 And popular opinion of today would make Jeter an outstanding SS. Actually - that's the comparison. Jeter's bat at his position makes him far more valuable thn the players that came before him. Same deal with Mantle and Dimaggio - except their bats were that much better.

Me, I'll trust the stats over what newspapers and fans say every day of the week. Cause the former summarize everything while the latter have selective memories.

And the stats don't say Mantle and Dimaggio were butchers. They say they were average with some very fine seasons. I can certainly deal with that, especially since their bats were ridiculous. As CF's, they are extremely valuable in the history of the game. The only player since that comes close is Griffey Jr, and then his bat doesn't quite measure up.

35 But Jeter is a great fielding SS. Joe Morgan said so and he's the top analyst in the world. DUH!

The irony in all of this for Cash is...I betcha Torre doesn't respect him either. It would have been interesting to see how Torre's tenure would have gone if Gene Michael had somehow survived George's purge. Apparently, Michael is not enamored of Torre's managing style. Again, Cash's biggest mistake was to not fire Torre after 2004 and install his own man. He could have had the best of both worlds: independence from Tampa and someone in the dugout who shared his vision (not sure if he really has one but whatever).

Hey guys look at the bright side. We're not Real Madrid. They just won the league title for the first time in a few years, then promptly fired their manager.

33 It's like Wikipedia and the wisdom of crowds. You aren't going to get masterpieces, but you tend to avoid idiotic solutions.

Me, I look back at when Tampa was involved, and it's just as hard to parse the influence of George on them as Tampa on Cashman.

So while people wory about Tampa (myself included), I realize now that was a fantastic political machination by Cashman to cover his own ass.

35 But even the Jeter comparison fails. We have endless reels of tape that can be pointed to which highlight his defensive weakness (lateral range) as well as his strengths. The constant drumbeat by those citing stats has, finally, started to counter those who praise Jeter's defense. But with players from previous generations, we just don't have the kind of visual evidence to hold up against the defensive stats, many of which are still controversial (and not just by those eschew them, but in stat-friendly baseball circles).

35 "Me, I'll trust the stats over what newspapers and fans say every day of the week. Cause the former summarize everything while the latter have selective memories."

do stats really summarize everything? does a new, vague metric really capture the defensive prowess of fielders from 40-60 years ago? i don't think so. say what you will about offensive stats, most of them are relatively objective. defensive stats leave much more to judgment, don't they? how do we know the RATE of guys from way before the stat was invented? is the footage that good?

even offensive stats don't tell everything. i think we should push for a whole new system, a whole new way to spend the insane amount of money baseball makes. each stadium should have sensors all around that measure the position of the ball at all times, the position of the fielders, etc. and the ball itself should have a sensor that measures the velocity, spin, etc at all times. same with the bat. this way we could actually record "everything" and derive stats from that, instead of creating more and more stats to try to recreate "everything."

39 "It's like Wikipedia and the wisdom of crowds. You aren't going to get masterpieces, but you tend to avoid idiotic solutions."

Which would seem to contradict your thesis about defensive reputation, where popular wisdom and the opinion of the masses is often wildy misinformed!

42 you beat me to that

41 Bad wording on my part. But the stats have a better chance of being right than the media or fans. They will always take more information into account and do a better job of parsing it. The human mind just isn't built like a database.

The point is: Just because some geezer said DiMaggio was fantastic, I shouldn't believe it. Because a bunch of geezer already say the same thing about Jeter.

I'd buy your proposal. And with RFID chips, it's possible today. You would never need an umpire again. Good luck convincing MLB.

44 "You would never need an umpire again." that's one of the goals.

the other big thing that needs to change is that the cf camera should actually be from straightaway cf, not left-center.

Yes, RATE is one of those secret stats. I think it's one where they chart every batted ball - which makes it subjective to begin with. Then they make assumptions that we're not privy to. Maybe it's an excellent stat, maybe it's not. But just because it's a stat doesn't mean that it's better than observation, not unless we know how the information's derived.

You can find lots of testimony today that says Jeter isn't a great shortstop, and it's not just on the web. Find me one, just one citation that says that either Dimaggio or Mantle in his prime was an average center fielder.

And since RATE can't chart those balls, how is it useful?

42 Failures of crowd intelligence:

Too emotional
Emotional factors, such as a feeling of belonging, can lead to peer pressure, herd instinct, and in extreme cases collective hysteria.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

Jim, the Yankees won the division with Bernie in center and Sierra at DH. Do you think that having Lofton would have made the difference in the ALCS?

I'm not arguing about Torre today, because I agreee that he's no longer good for this team. But those who bash his past have to deal with 11 consecutive division titles somehow. They weren't just pushbutton titles, either.

45 If the cf camera were in dead center field, it would give you a great view of the pitcher's back.

49 I thought the angle they experimented with at ESPN a few years ago wa sgreat (dead CF but elevated); apparently I was in the minority and everyone complained, so the got rid of it.

48 we all know the success the team has had under joe torre. but we all also know that it's at least possible that other people who are no longer with the team had a big influence on torre's in-game decisions. and we also know that in 03 and 04 (not to mention 05 and 06 but they weren't as blatant) torre made some inexcusable mistakes that led to defeat.

50 exactly. it was so much better. they still use it when they show their k zone or whatever (maybe that's only fox now?). it's a much better angle, and it's a mistake not to use it.

In much happier (and much closer to real life) news, Humbug's Score Bard just became a dad again.

Congrats Ken!

44 Stats are only better if they're good stats. You seem to treat all stats as if they're purely descriptive stats, and they're not. BA, SA and OBP are descriptive and involve no interpretation. Most of the more complicated stats involve assumptions, interpretations and choices that make them something different.

In order to know if they're good or not, we need to know (a) how they're derived, and (b) if they accurately reflect what they claim to represent.

53 Please, don't lay the Yankees' success at the feet of Don Zimmer. And Torre obviously did a whole lot of things right in '03 and '04. I think it's entirely presumptuous to blame the losses on Torre while denying him credit for the wins.

But back to Hillenbrand and/or Bradley. Yes? No?

46 Find me one SABR member doing those studies in 1947-1956.

Any statistic is going to have shortfalls. In RATE, I picked one that seems to do a fine job.

And the SABR crew is always trying to do better. The stats will always be better than any collection of fan opinions.

55 The reverse is also true. Over the last six years, the mistakes and losses have overwhelmed the wins. And it's not 11 straight division titles. That's the kind of revisionism our president would not countenance.

48 If I may speak for Jim (with whom I often disagree!), the problem is not that the team won the division, or should have done better in the play offs, with Bernie in CF (for example). I think Jim is pointing out that the organization has turned a blind eye to fetering problems at key positions for years, basically getting away with it because they get super production from C and SS, or because the Sox collapse, or because some miracle shows up (like Aaron Small).

This has led to organizational complacency: 'we won the division last year with Bernie in CF, so why make changes.' Sports teams should always be looking to improve on the field, as long as the price is right. That doen't mean making wholesale changes every year, but there have been clear places for imporvement on this team for years, and they (seem to) have been ignored.