I think Helton will be a productive player, at least .900 OPS at home, at least .850 OPS on the road. The real questions are:

How much of the salary is Boston responsible for? What prospects/players do they have to give up to get him?

I have read that the Rox would pay $40M, and they wanted a top prospect and Lowell or Clement.

I apologize for re-posting from a previous thread, but I have a feeling no one will even look at the past topic, so...

While I realize that acquiring a 1B has become a great crusade for more than a few Yankee fans, it is worth noting that several contending teams do not currently have what you would consider strong offensive 1B, including Boston, Detroit, Oakland and Anaheim. Clearly, it would nice if the Yankees could find a more potent first base platoon, but it isn't that pressing of a need that the team should consider a long-term investment in a declining player such as Helton.

While I can understand the desire to get the best possible player at every position, regardless of the financial cost, that line of thinking has the potential to be counterproductive. For starters, Yankee fans need to come to the realization that at $200mn or so, the team has reached its limit. Like it or not, the Yankees can not simply keep spending. What Cashman seems to be trying to do is reduce the Yankee payroll, but not so the team can earn more profit. Instead, he is trying to create more flexibility in the payroll so the Yankees can strike on the very best of available players (i.e., Santana, Zambrano, Texiera, Jones, etc.). If the Yankees were to commit to Helton for five years, it would not only reduce payroll flexibility, but also commit the team to Helton for five years. Unless you can honestly say you like Helton enough to want to see him in pinstripes until 2011, then I don't think you can make this deal. Quite frankly, if 1B becomes that much of a problem, I'd rather see the Yankees go out and get Sexson, who is only under contract through 2008.

From the Red Sox perspective, the deal definitely makes sense for 2007. Assuming the per year cost is only $8-9mn/year, they would swap out Lowell for Helton and improve their offensive (although only marginally based on 2006 statistics). Depending on whom else they dump, the Red Sox may also be able to lower their current year payroll. Having said that, think about 2009…entering that season, the Red Sox will be on the hook for $40mn to cover Drew, Lugo and Helton. If that's not an albatross, then I don't know what is.

Finally, if the Red Sox have to give up Hansen and Delcarmen that further mitigates the benefits of the deal. While I don't think much of either pitcher, it was just a season ago that names such as Andruw Jones were being thrown around in deals involving those two. It would seem to me that Helton and his contract would represent a significant drop in relative return.

The deal I've seen is Helton & ~40 mil (making his salary ~$10mil/yr) for good prospects and lowell and tavarez. Lowell makes like 9mil and tavarez like 3.5mil next year. so this would be a DROP in salary for the Sux, and an increase for the Rox. Why the hell would the Rox want to make a move like that??? Even if they get Hansen *and* MDC, they're still just relievers. Maybe if Ellsburry came over, but even then, this smells fishy. I agree the Yanks want no part of Helton, but should definitely get involved to drive up the price, because if the Sox are able to shed some of their overpriced players (Clement, Lowell, Tavarez) for Helton on the cheap, I'd be pissed! (Though it would be somewhat tempered by thinking of Helton in 2009-2011...)

More to the point of the potency of the Red Sox lineup, I don't really think the addition of Helton, Lugo and Drew make for a very scary lineup, especially when you compare it to the 2003 Red Sox edition. That lineup had three stars in Nomar, Manny and Ortiz, two guys who had career years (Nixon and Mueller), not to mention a healthy, "in his prime" Varitek to go along with solid production from Millar and Damon.

In comparison, the 2007 Sox will have two studs in Big Papi and Manny, but for the first time, the latter enters the season with some injury concern. After the big two, there are still lots of question marks: Varitek is coming off a poor/injured season; Youkilis is still only a slightly above average bat; Pedroia is unproven and had a poor intro. last season; Lugo has a career OPS+ of 92; Helton has been in steady decline (insert conspiracy theory here); Crisp still has to prove himself; and Drew is always a huge injury risk.

Clearly, if things fell into place, the Red Sox would have renewed potency in their lineup, but at this point, I don't think it is even close to Damon, Jeter, Abreu, Arod, Giambi, Posada, Matsui, Cano.

3 The Yanks could always jump in the bidding. At what point is it worth it for the Yanks? I am not sure. Why do the Yanks and Red Sox get blamed for other teams making stupid deals? Are the Rockies still paying for the Hampton deal?

For those arguing the Yanks should try and get Helton, he has a full no trade clause and according this this article, http://tinyurl.com/2tzj75, it doesn't even sound like he would wave it to play in NY.

I don't think the Yankees need to pick up that type of salary anyway, but for those complaing about Cashman not being on the ball, that could be why.

4 I think they will stay with the Yanks in runs scored only because of the bandbox they play in.

6 That is interesting. But your tinyurl doesn't seem to be working. Where were you directing us to?

7 Over the past couple of years, Fenway hasn't really played as an offensive park. Even if it does in 2007, however, that means it will also result in the Red Sox pitchers giving up more runs. I think it makes more sense to evaluate each team's lineups independent of park effect. In other words, a home ball park doesn't make a lineup scary, the hitters in it do.

It might be a salary drop for the Sox in '07, but Lowell is under contract for only 2007, and Tavarez has '07 and an option for '08. Meanwhile, Helton is under contract until 2011 when he'll be 38. Given how his numbers have been in decline, and the length of the deal, here's hoping the Sox make it.

I did think trading Sheffield for Helton was a good idea, depending on the cash Colorado would have thrown in, but even the current state of the Yanks' first base situation doesn't warrant getting Helton now. Not to have him under contract until 2011.

http://tinyurl.com/2tzj75

Sorry, hopefully that works. It suggests Helton would waive his no-trade to Boston, Atlanta and St. Louis.

Has anyone taken a look at Helton's home/away splits. His away splits last year are actually pretty similar to Monkeyitch's overall numbers. I guess if they have to have him okay. But that's a lot of money to tie up even if Col. kicks in $30 million, especially for a Boston team that didn't feel it had the funds to bring Abreu in last summer. After watching Donnie B's skills decline from a bad back I'd pass.

Ben Kabak wrote this up from what appears to be a reasonable perspective over at Off The Façade. For anyone interested it's a decent read and may get a few in off the ledge. If Helton reverts to his animal form then Boston will have one hell of a lineup. If not and his back really is a problem then that's a lot of money either riding pine or sharing the DH spot with Papi.

Maybe when Lucky Luchino takes his people over to China as he says he's about to he can bring an acupuncturist home with him; Helton may appreciate it. :-)

To be honest, getting Helton only improves them by about one win (see RLYW) and that is this year. Anyone think that Helton is going to get better as he ages? Not only that but the Sox will end up paying him an average of 10M through 2011. If the Sox have to give up Hansen and Delcarmen, so much the better.

With the MLB Extra Innings/DirecTV deal looming I began to look into the pros and cons of switching from Brighthouse (Tampa area) to DirecTV. I find that with DirecTV I can get a Sports Pack that includes eight or nine Fox Sports Network offerings that span the country and cover most of the MLB teams. AND NESN and YES (in HD)!!!! Since I'm primarily interested in the NYY games doesn't this ($12 per mo) beat the hell out of the MLB EI package? Anyone have it ? Any criticisms?

Kevin Goldstein's list of top 10 Yanks prospects is up on Baseball Prospectus:

Excellent Prospects
1. Philip Hughes, rhp
2. Jose Tabata, rf
Very Good Prospects
3. Joba Chamberlain, rhp
4. Humberto Sanchez, rhp
5. Dellin Betances, rhp
Good Prospects
6. Kevin Whelan, rhp
Average Prospects
7. Tyler Clippard, rhp
8. J. Brent Cox, rhp
9. Ian Kennedy, rhp
10. Alberto Gonzalez, ss

bit surprised to see Gonzalez as the top rated prospect from the Unit trade...

Check (, check, check,) it out

We can NOT discuss ANY 1Bman deal with a long contract, without first examining the 'Teixeira Issue'. If Cashman is targeting Tex, and feels he will get him, then the Helton discussion is moot. We may as well get an overpriced, declining SS too.

Mark Teixeira, 26, is in the last year of his contract, getting paid $7m+/-. He's a switch-hitter, and a good defensive 1Bman, who has not hit his prime yet. Over the last 3 years, he OPS has been .886 (although last year was his worst of 3), but .983 AWAY from Texas.

What's he worth as an FA? Are his numbers better then Sori's? Better then Lee's? My guess is he's a 6/100 guy at minimum, and could be 7/126.

Can Texas afford that? What are the odds that he is available next year... or middle of this year? If he is, can anyone outbid the Yankees? What will Texas want in return (hopefully cheap pitchers)? Would Tex like to be a Yankee? If he signs for 7 years, he might be or greatest 1Bman in history, behind Gehrig.

I compared being a GM to playing chess. You don't simply move one piece, without considering both the positions of the other pieces, and what you want the board to look like in 2 or 3 moves.

If Cashman told us today that he was going after Tex as hard as he could... would that render the 'Helton moot'?

If so, we need to discuss what the odds, scenerios, impediments are to getting Tex.

Soriano is a career 132 OPS+ and Tex is 126. So, we can expect the same ridiculous contract.

Scratch that, Soriano is 115 (I was looking at his stats from last year). So it'll be even more...

14 The sports pack is blacked out for MLB games. All you get is pre and post game coverage. You will still need extra innings.

Good news for fans who take the D or B train to the Stadium. The NY Sun says the MTA is finally putting in new subway cars on the IND lines. By May of '08, you will be riding in style.

http://www.nysun.com/article/47583

7 The numbers vary but Fenway is usually HR neutral, and gives BA a little boost. In reality, I think RH batters have an advantage, FB LH batters probably a disadvantage (except guys with good power going 'the other way')

15 I did read somewhere that Humberto Sanchez might have been the BEST SS glove in the minors.

I will ask again. What are the odds that Tex is a Yankee in 2008?

14 I currently get the Directv package and am pretty happy with it. If you get the sports package and NOT MLB EI, the games will be blacked out. You can get MLB EI without getting the sports package and just watch the games. In addition to the MLB EI package, you can get the sports package which gives you pre-game and post-game shows for an additional $12/mo(or cheaper if you get movie channels). It is pretty nice in the post-season. Several shows on YES are blocked out, but you do get most of their programming. Hasn't really affected me, except one time a game ran late and blacked out the game because the show that was supposed to be on was blacked out. Pretty rare, though.

21 Amazing that a pitcher, Humberto Sanchez, rates as the top defensive ss in the minors ;-). He will be the next Greg Maddux on the mound.

FWIW - Re: MLB and DirecTV - from Baseball Musings:

If you would like to complain about the DirecTV deal, you can contact MLB via email here: csmedia@website.mlb.com

[from BM] "If you do write them, be nice. Starting out the first sentence with "What are you morons thinking?" probably won't get the rest of your complaint read. Yeah, I know, they are morons but no one likes to be reminded of it."

23 That's right... go on... make fun of the elderly. I meant the OTHER Humberto Sanchez, re: Alberto Gonzalez

By the by: Prospect Profile: Phil Hughes
If you haven't read this, and need some pure joy and tingly toes, please read: http://tinyurl.com/ytlj37

ATTENTION. This is a test of the Dean Emergency Ranting System. This is only a test.

12 Here's the thing, in 1990 if you had the choice to acquire Donnie Baseball, at market prices for five years, would you?

Helton has been Donnie Baseball to the Rox, only significantly better numbers even on the road.

So when people say let the Sox get him, I cringe.

This isn't Nancy Drew - a guy every fanbase has been happy to see go.

This isn't Julio Lugo - a guy lucky to be an average hitter and fielder.

This is Todd Helton. And everyone predicting his rapid descent probably said the same thing about:

Thome
Giambi
Thomas
Piazza
Edmonds
etc.

Helton is a baseball player - pure and simple. And I'm sorry if I'm the only one but I would love to have him on my team at the prices being advertised. He may become Donnie B after 1990, but his low (119 in 2006) hasn't been that low (80 OPS+ in 1990), and the guy flat out rakes.

Here's his comps through Age 32:
Chuck Klein (886) *
Jeff Bagwell (885)
Frank Thomas (878)
Joe DiMaggio (864) *
Rafael Palmeiro (841)
Carlos Delgado (841)
Manny Ramirez (840)
Hank Greenberg (836) *
Jason Giambi (832)
Jim Bottomley (831) *

* = HOF

Sure, he could fall off a cliff. But it's more likely than not, in this day and age, that he rediscovers his stroke.

Maybe the Damon signing changed my thinking. The guy came in and just did his job and did it well. Who cares that he's going to be overpaid in the last year or two?

Back to your regularly scheduled episode of the Bronx Branter.

20 I have to call BS on the guy they quote in that article.

"The no. 7 line was, for a long time, always first to receive technological upgrades from the MTA, another co-author of "The Subway and the City," John Henderson, said. "The no. 7 ran through high-quality neighborhoods, so a lot of new stuff arrived there first."

Didn't the 7 run redbirds until 2005? That train was always ancient. Nice neighborhoods? Times Square was pretty dumpy until recently, and Queensbridge is in the running for Most Insane Neighborhood In The Five Boroughs.

A few thoughts on the proposed Helton deal:

If the Sawx swap Tavarez, Lowell, and a prospect for Helton, someone please explain to me how this results in an offensive upgrade in 2007?

Helton and Lowell had very similar numbers in 2006, with Lowell hitting 20 HR's to Helton's 15, and batting in 80 to Helton's 81 RBIs. Helton's 2006 AVG, BB, SLG, OBP and OPS numbers were better than Lowell's, but one can not discount the Coors Field affect. Lastly, both are productive hitters who are very obviously in their declining phases.

So, the Sawx will trade an excellent defensive 3B, a middle reliever, and a prospect for an overpriced, declining 1B who may or may not be a marginal-at-best offensive boost? In fact, losing Lowell and gaining Helton is essentially a wash offensively.

As Yankee fans I think we should all hope for such a trade.

27 Does B-R.com adjust those numbers for league and home park? Also, remember that those comps are for Helton up to now. It doesn't mean Helton will continue to hit like those guys going forward, just that he has hit like them so far.

PECOTA, on the other hand, offers comparables for Helton going forward. FWIW, here are Helton's top comparables via his '07 PECOTA card (Similarity index 54, so pretty similar):

1 Wally Joyner 1996 63
2 Ryan Klesko 2005 60
3 John Olerud 2002 55
4 Will Clark 1998 52
5 Don Mincher 1972 51
6 Norm Cash 1968 49
7 Keith Hernandez 1987 48
8 Dale Long 1959 48
9 Bill White 1967 47
10 David Justice 2000 43

Most of those guys fell off the cliff statistically within two years (or sooner). Joyner, his top comp, from '96 (his age-34 season) to '01 averaged .279/.362/.408. In other words, what Stinky Minky has hit in his career.

I continue to not be worried.

29 SG takes a run at it over at RLYW. It's worth a read. It's under the current post and it's a short read; which means I didn't get confused. Basically he comes to your conclusion I think or maybe I am confused.

What I question is why Lowell is involved in the rumor. If there are any bright spots on the Rockies, it's in 27 year old Garret Atkins, whose at 3B already. Further, many people think that Ian Stewart (BP's #1 Rockies prospect in 2005) is better at third base with the glove and with the stick. Why would they trade for a 33 year-old 3B?

That said, I feel that the most oft-rumored deal (Lowell and Tavarez for Helton) will improve the Red Sox for 2007, especially since Youk is not a huge step down from Lowell at 3B. I think the prospect of facing Helton/Ortiz/Ramirez/Drew 18 times this season could be daunting. Beyond 2007 it may be less than ideal... but remember the Yankees were one out from a World Series with Jason Giambi (2004: .208/.342/.379) at first base... I don't think Helton will ever be worse than that.

BEEP BEEP BEEP BEEP BEEP

I will add that people who are talking about a "steep" or "steady" decline are overthinking his year 2006. If you want to lump 2005 into that (144 OPS+) you also have to explain why 2002 was the same (143 OPS+) and why he "returned to form" in 2003-2004.

Further, if you look at his monthly splits for 2006, you can see there was no steady anything - he was great, slumped, then great again (coinciding with the reported flu) then settled into well-above average but not a superstar.

So basically people are concluding the guy's finished because he had a less than stellar second half combined with a bad June.

30 Wally Joyner - I knew Todd Helton, and you sir are no Todd Helton.

Look at when those players put up those seasons in the context of the rest of their careers. It's not the same thing as their whole careers. Individual seasons vary significantly. So I think it's disingenuous to compare Joyner's 1996 year to Clark's 1998.

Regardless, the worry that everyone is expressing (Donnie Baseball circa 1990) is exceedingly rare. There's been no indication that Helton is that injured. Much more common is one down year followed by a resurgence - we've all seen it as players written off then coming back strong. Helton's the type of hitter IMHO where that's the greater possibility. The "steady" or "rapid" decline is a statistical illusion.

The bottomline is you just have to look at 2006, in isolation, and guess about 2007.

Me, I'm guessing one way and because of it I'd much rather see him in pinstripes than in bloody sox.

BEEP BEEP BEEP BEEP BEEP

I just don't see this whole rumor as having much legs. It's just a little too inflated and in a lull of baseball news that makes a lot of us easy targets for rumors such as this. In the rare case this does go down I wouldn't be all that worried though, but I would wonder why COL would have any interest in Lowell and Tavares. Can BOS even afford to lose another BP arm? Just too many holes in this scenario for my liking.

Dear God, by far the most frightening part of the RLYW was this lead in:
"Yankees manager Joe Torre has told GM Brian Cashman that he'd like to give Bernie Williams a shot at making the team, according to a source close to Williams.
However, the Yankees' 40-man roster is full, and there appears little opportunity for Williams to contribute."

See, Cashman HAS to know better than allow Joe this chance, because we all know that there is no way in hell that he leaves Bernie off the roster. so please Cashman, don't do it!

10 It is more important for the Sox to drop payroll in 2007 right now if only because they are currently straddling the luxury tax threshold. If they can drop their payroll even $4M (and stay that way including trades and bonuses and such) then they would be below the threshold of $144M.

Next season, the threshold increases so they will have some breathing room. Not to mention Clement and Schilling come off the books as well as several other smaller but could easily add up contracts.

Of course, the Sox are committed to quite a few long term contracts...Ortiz, Matsuzaka, Drew, and Lugo are undercontract for 2011 (well Ortiz, and Lugo have options)...they all make substantial money. If the rumors are correct, in 2011, the Sox will have to pay Helton 15.7M The Sox could ALREADY have $58.7M committed to their 2011 lineup which, by that time, would be very, very old.

Not that that should necessarily be a deterrent for the Red Sox. Their AAV (in the rumored deal) for Helton would be less than $10M.

Still though, they are taking lessons from the yankees of the early 00's. Long term contracts are a good way to ensure your team is old and can't move for a season.

33 True, you see written off players come back. But far more often you see them, in fact, live down to their written-offness.

And Donnie Baseball 1990 on was hardly worth Todd Helton money outside of New York. Look at it this way, would you give 10 mill to a guy averaging .290, .350, .420 with an ops+ of 100? I love Donnie as much as anyone, but if Helton puts up those #s, then I aint worried...

Ps: RIP Barbaro...

36 well, now Scurt says he'll definitely pitch in 2008 and is supposedly in talks with Henry about staying in boston. scurt said he'll pitch just about anywhere but NY (thank goodness!). so, he may not be completely off the books. would be nice if boston cross the luxury tax line...

34 yeah, it's far from being a done deal. also seems as though Helton said he'll veto any deal if it's not done by the end of the week...

Hello... Hello... Mark Teixeira anyone?
If Tex signs as a FA next year, it will be for big money and probably for a PS contendor.
That certainly puts NY and Boston in there.
Of course, if Boston buys Helton for 5 years, the Yanks have less competition for Tex. If the Yankees buy Helton for 5 years, then Boston will have less competition for Tex.

Is there anyone here, including the Sausage King, who would prefer a 34 yr old Helton to a 27 yr old Tex?

I guess I'm crazy. I though Tex was as important to a Helton discussion as Helton was.

i'm down with getting tex in 08

39 Their owner dropped $250 million on one player. What makes you think he wouldn't drop half that on another?

Further, if they're not going to sign him, why wouldn't they trade him?

Anything the Yanks would give up for Helton pales in comparison to what they would have to give up for Teixeira - cash (100 vs 50 million) and players (a few good prospects versus one and MLB stiffs).

Sorry, it looks like apples and oranges.