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AAA
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Select Minor Leaguers:
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E. Duncan BC mi
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M. Carson BC mi
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J.B. Cox BC mi
S. Strickland BR BC mi
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R. Peña BC mi DL
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D. Adams mi
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Key:
BR = Baseball-Reference
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Molina Trade:
J. Kennard BC mi
Abreu Trade
M. Smith (L) BR BP BC E mi PHI
C. Monasterios BC mi PHI
J. Sanchez mi PHI
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While I was trapped in a small room and chained to BP07, the Yankees made three moves which directly impact their 25-man roster for the coming season. Among the comments to my previous post were a few requests for me to weigh in on those three moves, which, having been so gently prodded, I intend to do. I need to shake off some rust and get back in fighting shape here, so I'll start with the least significant of the three, the decision to re-sign infielder Miguel Cairo for $750,000 for the coming season.
One can infer my initial reaction from what I wrote about Cairo in my infield post mortem back in November:
The Yankees got something of a career year out of Cairo in 2004, then botched resigning him, leading to the eminently regrettable Tony Womack deal. Cairo fell back to replacement level as a Met in 2005, but Brian Cashman, perhaps overeager to right the previous offseasons's supposed wrong, rather than considering Cairo a bullet dodged, gave him a million-dollar contract for 2006. Cairo rewarded Cashman's good deed by repeating his Met performance almost exactly. Here's hoping the Yankees have learned their lesson.
That lesson, of course, being: Cairo's 2005 was a fluke, move on. Sadly, that lesson has gone unheeded.
Lamenting the state of the Yankee bench in recent years, I took a look at the Yankee reserves over the entire Joe Torre era, which now consists of eleven full seasons. Here are the Yankees' primary middle infield reserves over that period:
| Name | Years | G | PA | NYY | Career | 2B Rate2 | SS Rate2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Fox | 1996-1997 | 135 | 259 | .200/.290/.264 | .239/.324/.338 | 86 | 92 |
| Luis Sojo | 1996-2001 | 271 | 787 | .262/.296/.330 | .261/.297/.352 | 102 | 99 |
| Homer Bush | 1997-1998 | 55 | 89 | .378/.414/.451 | .285/.324/.358 | 106 | 90 |
| Wilson Delgado | 2000 | 31 | 51 | .244/.314/.333 | .251/.314/.314 | 98 | 106 |
| Clay Bellinger | 2000 | 98 | 209 | .207/.288/.370 | .193/.257/.363 | 115 | 80 |
| Jose Vizcaino | 2000 | 73 | 191 | .276/.319/.333 | .270/.318/.346 | 101 | 104 |
| Enrique Wilson | 2001-2004 | 264 | 636 | .216/.261/.332 | .244/.288/.350 | 90 | 98 |
| Erick Almonte | 2003 | 31 | 111 | .260/.321/.350 | .269/.327/.365 | n/a | 73 |
| Miguel Cairo | 2004, 2006 | 203 | 652 | .271/.313/.380 | .268/.316/.361 | 102 | 100 |
| Nick Green | 2006 | 46 | 82 | .240/.296/.387 | .243/.312/.351 | 102 | 101 |
Rate2 is fielding Rate adjusted for league and normalized over time; Rate2 stats are career, G, PA, and NYY stats are for the given seasons with the Yankees only
What stands out here is that, outside of Homer Bush's small sample success (exposed by his career averages), nothing here stands out. Quick find the .330 OBP and the .390 SLG outside of Bush's small sample numbers. Found it yet? There are two ways to look at this. The first is to consider the selection of reserve infielders an organizational blind spot. The second is to consider that the Yankees have made the playoffs for eleven straight years, been to six World Series, and won four championships with a consistent level of production from their reserve infielders. In other words, maybe that level of production is enough.
Here's a look at the middle infield reserves of the other seven 2006 playoff teams:
| Name | Team | G | PA | 2006 | Career | 2B Rate2 | SS Rate2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Infante | Tigers | 78 | 245 | .277/.325/.416 | .251/.297/.389 | 100 | 107 |
| Ramon Santiago | Tigers | 43 | 86 | .225/.244/.262 | .227/.292/.299 | 95 | 101 |
| Neifi Perez | Tigers | 21 | 70 | .200/.235/.215 | .268/.298/.376 | 107 | 111 |
| Luis Rodriguez | Twins | 59 | 132 | .235/.315/.322 | .255/.327/.359 | 104 | 122 |
| Juan Castro | Twins | 50 | 164 | .231/.258/.308 | .233/.272/.340 | 104 | 106 |
| Marco Scutaro | A's | 117 | 423 | .266/.350/.397 | .258/.316/.390 | 100 | 95 |
| Aaron Miles | Cardinals | 135 | 471 | .263/.324/.347 | .280/.322/.360 | 99 | 94 |
| Hector Luna | Cardinals | 76 | 245 | .291/.355/.417 | .276/.330/.397 | 91 | 104 |
| Geoff Blum | Padres | 109 | 299 | .254/.293/.366 | .251/.312/.389 | 94 | 106 |
| Mark Bellhorn | Padres | 115 | 288 | .190/.285/.344 | .231/.342/.396 | 100 | 94 |
| Todd Walker | Padres | 44 | 142 | .282/.366/.419 | .289/.349/.437 | 94 | n/a |
| Ramon Martinez | Dodgers | 82 | 194 | .278/.339/.364 | .270/.330/.381 | 102 | 103 |
| Julio Lugo | Dodgers | 49 | 164 | .219/.278/.267 | .277/.340/.402 | 96 | 102 |
G and PA columns are 2006 only
Largely more of the same. Todd Walker has played just four innings at shortstop in his career and is a brutal defensive second baseman. Mark Bellhorn is finished, as he was when he came to the Yankees in 2005. Julio Lugo is a starter who was unhappily moonlighting as a reserve in L.A. Hector Luna, Omar Infante, and Marco Scutaro are all still shy of free agency. Take those players off the board and Ramon Martinez looks like a winner in the remaining group. Here's the 34-year-old Martinez and the 32-year-old Cairo up close:
| Name | Year | G | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | Career | 2B Rate2 | SS Rate2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Martinez | 2006 | 82 | 194 | .278/.339/.364 | .270/.330/.381 | 102 | 103 |
| Miguel Cairo | 2004, 2006 | 203 | 652 | .271/.313/.380 | .268/.316/.361 | 102 | 100 |
G, PA, and AVG/OBP/SLG columns are for the given seasons
Sure those extra 15-to-25 points of on-base percentage would be nice to have, but that's about the extent of the gripe here. For the most part, middle infielders better than Cairo and Martinez are in demand as starters and thus once they become free agents will fill voids on teams with a replacement level starter. That means that the only real hope of fielding a superior replacement is to grow one yourself.
There were two exceptions in this winter's free agent class. The following are the only meaningfully above replacement middle infielders that signed with teams were they weren't guaranteed to start:
| Name | Team | G | PA | 2006 | Career | 2B Rate2 | SS Rate2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Loretta | Astros | 155 | 703 | .285/.345/.361 | .299/.363/.402 | 104 | 98 |
| Tony Graffanino | Brewers | 129 | 511 | .274/.345/.406 | .269/.338/.396 | 106 | 97 |
Either of these players would have been far preferable to Cairo because of both their ability at the plate and their greater experience at third base (Loretta: 171 games, 95 Rate2; Graffanino: 156 games, 97 Rate2; Cairo: 81 games, 90 Rate2). Graffanino, a Long Island native, would have seemed like a natural fit. But then both of these players are used to getting significant playing time. Cario and Nick Green made a combined 326 plate appearances last year. Loretta, who is backing up a 41-year-old second baseman and a shortstop who can't hit, has come to the plate more often in every season since 1996. Graffanino, who is backing up a pair of injury-prone youngsters, has seen more action in each of the last two seasons.
Meanwhile, here's one middle infielder who did land a starting job as free agent this winter:
| Name | Team | G | PA | 2006 | Career | 2B Rate2 | SS Rate2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Gonzalez | Reds | 111 | 429 | .255/.299/.397 | .246/.292/.392 | n/a | 94 |
There's just not that much out there.
On the farm, Andy Cannizaro is just more of the same and would be a 28-year-old rookie this season. Ditto non-roster invitee Chris Basak. Past roster-filler Flex Escalona and Russ Johnson remain free agents. Escalona slipped back down to Double-A last year and, while Johnson has done little other than hit in his two years in the Yankee system, the organization seems to have little use for him, which suggests that as he enters his mid-30s he's limited to third base defensively. All of which makes the system seem pretty barren, though you must remember that it did produce Robinson Cano just two years ago.
Of course the big concern over the Cairo signing is, "what if Jeter or Cano get hurt and he has to start." Well, Jeter missed almost a month and a half at the beginning of the 2003 season, the Yankees replaced him with Erick Almonte, who has since fallen all the way to the independent leagues at age 28, and went 26-11 in his absence, building up a three-game lead in the AL East. In 2000, Chuck Knoblauch missed more than a month and the Yankees went 25-15 with Luis Sojo and Jose Vizcaino filling in, doubling their three game lead in the East over that stretch. Last Year, Robinson Cano missed a similar amount of time and the Yankees went 23-11 with Cairo and Green at the keystone and turned a 2.5 game deficit in the division to a 2 game lead. That's not to say that those players aren't valuable, but that, as the above attempted to illustrate, it's not a disaster to field a replacement level player in the middle infield for a while.
Besides which, the Yankees happen to have one of the best keystone combinations in baseball. Derek Jeter was a legitimate MVP candidate last year and is a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer and Robinson Cano is the best second baseman in the American League and likely second only to Chase Utley in all of baseball. The Yankees are not going to be able to properly replace either of those players regardless of the quality of their backup. The best they can do is hope to maintain some baseline level of ability in their absence. Miguel Cairo is the definition of that baseline.
I'd argue (you probably knew I would) that the Yanks managed to survive in the other injury years because the other IF's were relatively still young and nimble - they were less likely to suffer an injury as well and were contributing above average performance for their positions (I'm looking at you, Jorge, Jeter, and Giambi, specifically). The effect was to "balance" out the losses. Now, would it really be a stretch to see their IF have a catastrophe like the OF in 2006?
It feels like they compound the mistake of Cairo with TR Nieves and Phelps/Phillips/MCI (who you could also claim as baselines). Further, I'm surprised you're calling Cairo a baseline - that feels like calling a 63 year old hooker "serviceable".
To the list I'd add Chris Gomez:
2006: 132 AB .341 .387 .439
Car: .260 .326 .360
Of course , those 2006 numbers are a small sample size effect, but maybe he's found something (in the AL East) that we know Cairo hasn't. But maybe his RATE isn't in-line with he others?
I'd also add Damion Easley:
2006: 189 AB .233 .323 .418
Car: .251 .328 .404
There isn't much. But with the Yankee resources, that can, and should have, done better. They bought a cheap insurance policy on a multi-million dollar home. I hope it doesn't come back to bite them.
2006: .216/.289/.311
Career: .247/.302/.384
His DT-translated numbers are about the same.
His defensive numbers are quite good, though potential small sample concerns abound:
2B - 2006: 111 (39 games)
2B - Career: 111 (70 games)
SS - 2006: 101 (13 games)
SS - Career: 100 (302 games)
3B - 2006: 117 (10 games)
3B - Career: 116 (39 games)
1 Essentially you're saying the Yanks should have signed either Loretta or Graffanino, right?
Loretta I agree was gettable - unless he was concerned with regular playing time, which not even the Yankee resources (ie money) could have offered.
Graffanino was arbitration-eligible, which the Brewers offered. I just looked this up, and I still can't believe it, but he was listed as a 'Type A' free agent. I'm guessing that's why there weren't any Tony Graffanino to the Yanks rumors.
On a separate note, check out my post at COH. It seems that Joe Torre and Scott Proctor have stirred up some trouble in Lebanon.
And I might ask....
what if Big Papi gets hurt? Should the Sox sign Bonds... just in case?
what if Beltran gets hurt? Should the Mets sign A.Jones... just in case?
what if Mauer gets hurt? Should the Twins try to get Posada... just in case?
What team would not be impacted if both their starting SS and 2nd went down?
We have an All-Star at almost every starting position... and spent a ton of money to both keep OUR homegrown guys (Posada, Jetes, Bernie) and try and get other impact players (Giambi, Matsui, ARod, Contraras, RJ, etc)... and in the last 2 years, have NOT given up any of our good kids.
These statements of 'should have gotten' with absolutely NO idea of availability, NO idea if the want to or can play in NY, NO idea what Cashman is manuvering for in both the immediate and short term future.. is getting nuts.
If I have a spat with the old lady, do I sit and tell myself 'I should have gotten' Pam Anderson?
Marcus Thames' potential was scary when he was at Columbus; but didn't do much of anything for years after knocking the snot out of Randy his first at-bat. Did anyone really expect Shane Spencer to be heroic (at least until he started agitating to start) and so forth.
I agree with Cliff that just as there may be a systemic blind spot in terms of building a strong bench (but does that include former starters now reduced to back-up?), there may be no better way to strengthen the bench than to groom your own bench, either as career utility players (which would be an unfortunate prospect) or as eventual replacements (provided that the prospect has the patience to wait that long).
4 I imagine most people do. But if Kid Rock and Tommy Lee can't handle her, those are not strong endorsements in my opinion.
5 Never trust anyone over 30?
Another super productive injury free year from Posada, that THAT gets my all my prayers because at present a couple of months without Jorge will have an impact. Anybody have a clue what's going on with our future catcher or is he still playing video games in high school somewhere?
I'm not complaining about the Yankees lineup - it's fantastic. But if I were a GM in the AL assembling a team from scratch I think I'd design in at least one platoon and try and rotate 3 players between 1 position and DH to give all three players 400 ABs. That's not something the Yankees can do as currently constructed so they are stuck getting junkbin bench players who are happy with 100-150 ABs.
3 Another thing I left out of this post is that Miguel Cairo's primary contribution to last year's team was his ability on the bases. In limited duty he stole 13 bases in 14 attempts and over the past three seasons combined he's swiped 37 bags in 44 tries (84%). That's being able to run more than a little. Meanwhile the only farm hand who looks like he might be able to manage even Cairo's low level of production at the plate is Cannizaro, who's not 25, he's 28, and he's 36 for 62 (58%) on the bases in his six year minor league career.
1 Jim, this post is only about the utility infield spot, first base and back-up catcher are separate posts.
Crazy free agent ranking fun fact #2: Not only is Graffanino a Type A, so are such luminaries as Rich Aurilia, Todd Walker, and Jose Vidro.
Crazy free agent ranking fun fact #3: Meanwhile, if Scott Rolen were a free agent, he would be a Type B.
Its all right there in black and white:
http://tinyurl.com/ybbxpx
From MLB.com: "The right-hander has appeared in more games for the Tigres de Aragua than any other pitcher currently participating in the Venezuelan Winter League playoffs. Butto has pitched in nine of the 12 postseason games for the 8-4 Tigres and he has a 1.13 ERA. He also leads the circuit with four saves in the playoffs."
Their starting lineup is so freaking sick, that they don't need a bench full of guys who can reasonably approximate the starters production, because there ARE NO BENCH GUYS LIKE THAT.
Great analysis Cliff, it's good to have you back.
http://tinyurl.com/2qt7gx
I wonder how many times an old timer has asked this of himself: Should I retire, or go pitch for the New York Yankees.
Pass on Clemens, please.
...how many for someone who isn't even signed to a deal with their team?
i don't doubt that cano would be cool about it if he was asked, he seems pretty laid back, but it stinks for clemens haters who paid for a cano jersey.
Hughes is #4, Tabata is #23 and Sanchez is #52. Clippard is on the Honorable Mention list. In his writeup, he suggests that Sanchez' move the bullpen will be permanent.
Wow, even I didn't realize how frustrated I've become with this whole "will he, won't he" BS.
Speaking of numbers, there's been a bit of stink in Detroit regarding Sheffield's taking of #3 (Alan Trammell's old number).
(and for the record, soriano changing digits for wells bothered me, too.)