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I Never Got To Make A Good Guiel Pun
2006-12-12 18:04
by Cliff Corcoran

The Yankees declined to tender Aaron Guiel a contract yesterday, making the outfielder-cum-first baseman a free agent. Guiel was the only player the Yankees had to make a decision on at yesterday's non-tender deadline.

Assuming Jason Giambi will get most of his at-bats as a DH, dropping Guiel from the roster leaves the Yankees without a lefty first baseman to platoon with the winner of the Phelps-Phillips battle set to take place in spring training. Not that Phelps and Phillips are exceptionally disadvantaged against their fellow righties. Phillips has actually done most of his damage in the majors against righties. Twenty-three of Andy's 27 extra base hits and more than two-thirds of his walks have come against rightes despite his having less than twice as many plate appearances against righties as against lefties. Phelps, meanwhile, has a career .257/.325/.460 line against righties, which, by trading some OBP for slugging, is almost exactly league average. That's not great, but it's permissible, especially when he hits .293/.357/.500 against lefties and earns the league minimum.

As for what else is out there, here are the career splits vs. righties of Phelps and the remaining free agent lefty-hitting first basemen:


NameAgeAVG/OBP/SLG (GPA)AB
Ryan Klesko35.292/.385/.548 (.310)4032
Carlos Peña28.250/.346/.467 (.272)1184
Darin Erstad32.293/.349/.422 (.263)3643
Doug Mientkiewicz32.271/.359/.400 (.262)2110
Josh Phelps28.257/.325/.460 (.261)803
Aaron Guiel34.257/.331/.436 (.258)725
John Mabry36.264/.324/.414 (.249)2801

The only players there that would represent a meaningful improvement over Phelps are Peña, to a very small degree, and Klesko. We've already seen that Phelps and Peña are alarmingly similar hitters. So if Phelps is good enough from the right side, it would make a certain amount of sense to give Peña a second chance to make the team in the spring.

Klesko, meanwhile, is a curious case. Despite the way he dominates the chart above, he missed nearly all of 2006 following shoulder surgery after suffering an alarming power outage in 2005. One line of thought attributes the power outage to the shoulder problems that have theoretically been fixed by the surgery, which could suggest a surprising up-tick in production for 2007. Another is that after that weak showing in '05 and what amounts to a year off at age 35, the Ryan Kelsko who put up that .310 career GPA against righties may be gone forever.

Another interesting angle on Klesko is that he has actually spent the majority of his career playing left field. That's a good thing in terms of the position flexibilty the Yankees might require in order to carry what amounts to a third first baseman, but is also a concern as Klesko was actually the Padres starting left fielder in 2004 and 2005, meaning he hasn't been a regular first baseman since 2003. In addition to that, he's never been considered a good fielder at either position, where as the reports on Peña have at the very least been conflicted, meaning someone out there thinks he's a strong gloveman.

Still, as the two combined for 37 major league at-bats in 2006 (33 of which were Peña's), both players should come cheap enough that it would be worth a gamble to bring them to camp. As it stands now, their roster spot would likely otherwise go to Bernie Williams. Consider:

12 pitchers (5 starters, 7 relievers)
9 starters (including, for our purposes here, the righty half of the 1B platoon)
3 bench spots used on Melky, utility infielder and back-up catcher

That's 24 men. There's one spot left for another bench bat, and a left first baseman, preferably with some outfield experience, seems like the best way to use it. I can't see Bernie learning first base and he's essentially a righty bat at this point. There haven't even been whispers about moving Hideki Matsui to first base (which actually would open up a job for Bernie as he could be a righty bench bat/outfielder behind lefties Damon and Abreu and switch-hitter Cabrera). Best I can tell, Juan Miranda won't see the big leagues this year prior to expanded rosters, if at all. It would seem that, baring a trade, Klesko and Peña are the only remaining options. Though to be completely honest, I wouldn't complain if the Yankees brought Guiel back. Having a lefty bench bat with some pop, some patience and the ability to play first and all three outfield positions isn't a bad consolation prize, even if the pop and patience isn't quite up to the standards of the other two.

Comments (234)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-12-12 21:48:09
1.   Yu-Hsing Chen
a lot of interesting names that got non-tendered though. some could seriously help us or be a worthy gamble.

Chin Hui Tsao (exellent gamble, 25 turning 26, formrer top prospect, only problem is injury )

Toby Hall (no brainer backup catcher)

Brad Wilkerson (interesting gamble for 1B)

2006-12-12 22:00:21
2.   brockdc
1Me, you, and everyone we know are on that Toby Hall bandwagon. Sign him, STAT!

I've never actually seen Wilkerson play, though he's been a saber darling over the past couple of seasons. The question is, can he pick it, and, if so, would he be a better option than Guiel, and, if so, what's Cash waiting for?

2006-12-12 22:05:43
3.   brockdc
"As it stands now, their roster spot would likely otherwise go to Bernie Williams."

Why do I get the ominious feeling that we'll be hearing this line repeatedly over the next couple of seasons?

Joe, Cash, please - we all love Bernie; but cut the cord already!

2006-12-12 22:10:24
4.   thelarmis
i'm down with toby hall. i, too, wouldn't mind having guiel back, if it came to it, but i don't think it's gonna happen. wilkerson wouldn't be bad. not sure we need tsao right now. probably should go after hall first and quick...
2006-12-12 22:12:42
5.   monkeypants
To be honest, I don't understand why Guiel/Wilson were so unceremoniously dumped. Not they are great or anything, but both offered some roster flexibility and platoon potential, and there don't seem to be too many other obvious options floating around.

Maybe the extra OF/bench spot will go to Thompson?

2006-12-12 22:15:10
6.   monkeypants
Is that the same Toby Hall with the career .394 slugging percentage?
2006-12-12 22:15:16
7.   Cliff Corcoran
Please, Toby Hall is as bad or worse than the rest of the catching detritus out there. Get off the bandwagon and set the thing on fire.

I've not seen anythingn about Wilkerson being non-tendered. Did that happen?

2006-12-12 22:39:28
8.   Eirias
1 Thanks for the info on Chin-Hui Tsao in the previous thread.
2006-12-12 22:44:42
9.   yankee23
7 Nope, sure didn't.

From mlb.com:
"The Rangers tendered contracts to their four arbitration eligibles: Brad Wilkerson and pitchers Akinori Otsuka, Rick Bauer and Joaquin Benoit."

http://tinyurl.com/y97ck7

2006-12-12 22:50:38
10.   Cliff Corcoran
9 Solves that.
2006-12-13 01:27:01
11.   Yu-Hsing Chen
7 Cliff, at least Hall isn't super old and could actually throw out runners?

Yes he isn't significantly better than the other scrub catchers, but he should still be a little better.

2006-12-13 02:53:13
12.   Jim Dean
Thanks Cliff. I think Cashman et al realized that having three third basemen is pretty silly. I think this means that Giambi is the other half of the platoon. I'm fine with that as he still needs to play the field often enough to be in the lineup at NL parks and hopefully the Serious. And he's a better hitter when he plays the field. Of course, then that gives Melky his starts in the OF while DH'ing the other OF's.

Works for me. Torre needs less options, not more. Plug in Thompson in the 5th OF slot, and you've got the makings of a push-button roster. Now where did they put that BUC and UIF?

2006-12-13 04:15:59
13.   randym77
Aw, I liked Ralph Malph. I'd rather keep him than Andy Phillips.

I'm not sure there's going to be a fifth OFer this year. With Myers a LOOGY, they say they may need to carry 13 pitchers. Which means no fifth OFer. Might be a good thing, if it encourages Bernie to retire.

The Reds non-tendered former Yankee Brandon Claussen yesterday. He was their #3 pitcher, so this is a bit of a surprise. He's coming off rotator cuff surgery, so maybe they decided he was expendable. They acquired Claussen from us as part of the Aaron Boone trade.

2006-12-13 05:07:35
14.   mikeplugh
The Asahi TV nightly news just reported from LA that the Red Sox increased their offer to more than the 8 or 9 million they were lowballing Matsuzaka with (not new news), that Boras seemed relieved (interesting), and that it is now up to Matsuzaka (I think he'll take it).

I'm betting you'll be seeing Matsuzaka holding up a #18 Red Sox jersey in a few hours. First, they'll do a photo op at the plane, then the champagne on the flight to Boston, then the physical, then the press conference with the jersey.

The tone of the broadcast was cautious, and I think no one but Matsuzaka knows what's going to happen now, but it appears as though it will happen.

2006-12-13 05:27:05
15.   Jim Dean
13 That many pitchers would be even sillier than 3 1B's. It's not like Torre uses every guy in the pen. He overworks some, and the others are under glass.

14 Interesting. I wonder if he gets Meche money or more.

2006-12-13 05:28:49
16.   Yankee Fan In Boston
this deal will get done. it will be fun to see who blinks, though.

here's a list of all the non-tendered players:
http://tinyurl.com/uyxfa

2006-12-13 05:34:30
17.   jakewoods
This is a glaring example of why you need to balance stat geeks with real guys who actually watch games. Anyone that has seen Klesko play or well not play over the past few yrs knows this.

Stat or no stat.

2006-12-13 05:38:22
18.   Yankee Fan In Boston
17 ?
2006-12-13 05:40:45
19.   Yankee Fan In Boston
18 ah. okay. sorry. (still sleeping.)
2006-12-13 05:42:13
20.   OldYanksFan
I think the Red Sox are playing chicken with the wrong guy. Have the Sox offered 4/45 yet?

12 I agree; Giambi needs to play 1B quite a bit... maybe around 1/2 their games. This also allows Abreu/Matsui/Damon to DH, giving them a bit of a rest and getting Melky in the OF.

While making an OF'er play 2 or 3 of the OF positions is tough, we need to see if Melky can be good defensively in CF. Damon is tough, but almost always hurt.... and having him DH 30 or 40 of the games Giambi is at first is not a bad idea.

Basically, if we use Giambi primarily as a DH, we won't see much of Melky. As Giambi likes playing the field, and is better offensively when he does, I'm willing to take the hit on defense to keep Giambi more productive with the bat.

Furthermore, having Giambi AND 2 other 1B's is not a good use of the roster. Many teams (Manny in LF) have a dud on defense in order to have a big bat. I can live with it for 80 games.

Whether we keep Melky or use him as trade bait, we need to see what he can do. If he doesn't play close to half our games, he will not produce to his potential (whatever that is).

I also think there will be better/cheaper options open around the ASB. I don't feel the need to plug every little hole by Spring. We have a pretty decent team as is. The only thing that will really make an impact is if we can snag an above average pitcher (either SP or Relief) and a good catcher.

2006-12-13 05:42:34
21.   Jim Dean
17 Are you dense or just ignorant?

1) Stats are just a collection of things that happen in games. Das it. There's no need to be afraid of them.

2) You really think people who enjoy the stats don't watch games? What? No, "sat geeks" only enjoy numbers? Actually, I get this magazine every month where the centerfold is some sexy rational integer. The irrational numbers are really freaky. Oh, god that Pi!

3) If you think you're a "real" guy because you choose not to think before you speak (or write), then you have a long life ahead of you. Good luck with that.

2006-12-13 05:57:13
22.   mikeplugh
Just to prove jakewoods right, by proving him wrong. Here's a simple "stathead" analysis of Ryan Klesko's last 3 full seasons. Last year he played 6 games.

2003 .252/.354/.456 .810 OPS
2004 .291/.399/.448 .847 OPS
2005 .248/.358/.418 .776 OPS

Those numbers aren't any better than who we have on the roster right now, so he seems rather superfluous. His VORP is in the low teens, and his WARP3 is only around a 4.

I don't need to be a "real guy" to see that Ryan Klesko is not the answer. I leave being a "real guy" to people like Joe Morgan.

2006-12-13 06:08:18
23.   mikeplugh
By the way, I was just messing around at BP and looked at our 1B options. Neither Phelps or Phillips has really put up a WARP3 of 4 in their careers, so there is some value in Klesko, but Phillips could well hit this season if given another shot at the job.

The alarming thing was Jason Giambi's charts appear to drop off a cliff after 2008. He's projected to be of star caliber across the board in 2007, but he has a 50% likelihood of being a full blown scrub in 2008. In 2009 there's a 60% chance that he should be dropped based on his horrendous projection. They have him out of baseball after this coming season.

I don't know if I buy that, but he will be 37 in 2008....a steroids abused 37. It could happen. Lucky his contract is almost up if any of BP's "statheadedness" is accurate.

2006-12-13 06:09:25
24.   mickey1956
7 Toby Hall could be a good back up catcher. I would definitely take him over the field right now. He is average or better defensively and he hits lefties pretty well
His 3 year splits against lefties
.297 .334 .436. If used this way he would be and asset.
2006-12-13 06:13:48
25.   RIYank
You guys are nuts. There is no way to evaluate a baseball player properly unless you smell him. Seeing isn't good enough. That's why there is no point in watching games on television. And stats will never tell you the whole story, because THERE ARE NO STATS FOR SMELL.

This has been scientifically proven. No, I mean, damn, that would be geeky. It hasn't. I meant, my grandfather told me, and two very small, gritty baseball players confirmed it.

2006-12-13 06:15:12
26.   jonnystrongleg
14 Mike, last night (your time) you were adamant about DM pitching in Japan next year. With one cautious TV news report you have completely flipped? Was there anything else that happened to lead you to change course?
2006-12-13 06:16:40
27.   Yankee Fan In Boston
25 i have long been a proponent of scratch n' sniff baseball cards...
2006-12-13 06:24:38
28.   JoeInRI
(Formerly RI Yankee)

25 Dude . . . you're weird . . .

2006-12-13 06:27:35
29.   Yankee Fan In Boston
28 if you only knew...
2006-12-13 06:30:56
30.   Count Zero
21 Wow -- that was a bit harsh. Not completely unwarranted, but still...

Thank God the D-M saga is over tomorrow night -- I'm getting more than bored with it. Still say he will sign because the Red Sox never had a choice once they won the bid.

I would have like to see Guiel back...his flexibility was nice. Can't see Klesko in a NYY uni -- I think he's done being a valuable MLBer.

2006-12-13 06:34:48
31.   Yankee Fan In Boston
30 supposedly this matsuzaka business will be over this afternoon. i guess the sox brass is flying east and breaking off talks then.

...this could also be bull.

2006-12-13 06:37:45
32.   Jim Dean
24 That's a great point. I could support it, especially because be may have just a bit more upside, but I don't think that the Yanks want to spend the cash there. He's at 2 mil/year and given the dearth of Cs, he'll probably get it and probabably in a multiyear deal. Even as the Yanks have no real options if Jorge goes down, they seem to be completely clueless when it comes to the BUCs. Jorge is the guy to worry about being out of baseball 23 - BP says in 2009 - but i can't imagine him being a full-time catcher in 2008, even after him having his best season offensively and defensively in along while.

Here's another way to look at it: If Jorge goes down for any length of time, a guy like Toby Hall will be overpriced for the Yanks because no team will trade a true starting catcher mid-season. And even if they want to acquire a catching prospect at that point, they get really ripped off (say Sanchez and Clippard) but for a guy who won't be in MLB any ways. The only insurance is to get a prospect in before the season starts, and you overpay now because the prices will only get worse. The thought of waiting for Nieves to be the full-time catcher for six weeks (a Jorge pulled hamstring) just caused me to shit my pants.

There are a few prospects (Thinking Jeff Clement in Seattle) who could be acquired in a decent package (say Clippard and Duncan) now and who could be ready mid-season. Why wait?

2006-12-13 06:42:55
33.   Jim Dean
30 "...balance stat geeks with real guys who actually watch games"

What's the contrast that's being made there?

Is it even possible to respond to that without being harsh?

2006-12-13 06:43:28
34.   williamnyy23
7 While Hall certainly doesn't deserve a band wagon, he would be much better than Raul Chavez (whose offensive numbers are so poor, that it's almost laughable). Having said that, if Hall ends the search for a backup, signing him might be counterproductive.
2006-12-13 06:49:02
35.   kylepetterson
33 Wasn't that whole "boy's got heart" line of thinking abandoned somewhere in the 1940's? I think that it's true as a fan, but not as a manager.
2006-12-13 06:56:34
36.   Yankee Fan In Boston
35 i know that he has his detractors, and i for one am on the fence when it comes to him, but tony larussa has been known to question players' "heart." people were quoting a bit of his "3 nights in august" book, where he speaks about jd drew in a less than favorable light lately.

i think to an extent, torre's love affair with veterans might have roots in a perception of heart, too. but that is just a theory.

2006-12-13 07:02:33
37.   kylepetterson
36 Don't get me wrong, I think there is a big place in baseball for "heart", but it has to be in addition to good numbers, not by itself.
2006-12-13 07:03:51
38.   Yankee Fan In Boston
37 we are in agreement.
2006-12-13 07:08:02
39.   RIYank
37 38 If I can't smell it, I want no part of it. Give me gritty, smelly players.
2006-12-13 07:08:23
40.   Shaun P
Speaking of "heart", this "stathead" is going to through out a great reason to pass on Toby Hall.

All I ever read/heard about Hall was what a cancer he was in the clubhouse, both in Tampa and LA. Sweet Lou couldn't stand the guy, IIRC. Those are enough reasons to stay away. Coupled with the bad numbers, ugh.

I expect Guiel will be brought back on the cheap, and I also expect Bernie will retire. I hope.

2006-12-13 07:11:41
41.   Yankee Fan In Boston
39 do you know off-hand what paul o'neill's grit/smell ratio was? i can't seem to find it anywhere, and i have a bet to settle...
2006-12-13 07:15:14
42.   RIYank
41 Dude, smell and grit are not frickin numbers. They don't have no stinkin ratio. Okay?

Geek.

2006-12-13 07:18:30
43.   Yankee Fan In Boston
42 well, did he have a higher grit per plate appearance percentage in july of 2001 than trot nixon?
2006-12-13 07:18:55
44.   Jim Dean
One last thought on the catching prospcts: Baseball America has finished rating the top ten prospects for all the AL teams. Out of the 240 players listed, exactly 5 are catchers.

Clement (Seattle): Blocked by Johjima
Thigpen (TOR): Their starting catcher in 07-08
Suzuki (OAK): Their starting catcher in 07-08
Mathis (ANA): Blocked by Napoli and Molina
Conger (ANA): very green still but perhaps a starter in 2009

So basically that leaves two in the AL that are more likely to be available (mL career totals):

Clement (23 yo): .278 .350 .418 .768
Mathis (23 yo): .280 .344 .452 .796

By contrast, here's Jorge's mL numbers throuogh age 25:

.258 .369 .434 .803

(Isn't it funny how stats work - his mL number are very good predictors of his MLB ones - same plate discipline but he developed more power.)

Now, who knows if Clement or Mathis will be a stop gap or a long term fix? But the system is empty. And given that there's no place for either Mathis or Clement on their big league clubs, they're available and maybe for just one of the pitching prospects. That's a deal that needs to be made, before it's too late.

2006-12-13 07:20:09
45.   mehmattski
And lo, scarcasm dripped down like Niagra Falls on the Banter that day.

Cheer up, Cliff, there will be plenty of pun-able guys in the near future. For example, I predict that within 0.0001 seconds of his initial callup, Yankees prospect Tyler Clippard will be referred to as "The Yankee Clippard."

And if it's flexibility you're looking for in the non-tendered list... look no further than Rick Ankiel.

2006-12-13 07:21:14
46.   YankeeInMichigan
There are other dimensions to a first base platoon besides righty/lefty, i.e. grass-turf (turf is murder on Giambi's legs) and offense-defense (you need a solid glove man when Wang is pitching). With a Phillips and Giambi on the roster you would have all the roles covered (provided that Giambi can provide 80-100 starts at first and that Phillips can hit with some consistency). With Phelps and Giambi, you would have to bring in a third player (Pena, Guiel) as a glove man.

Defensive flexibility is also a concern. Guiel could double as a fifth outfielder. Phillips could double as a backup third-baseman, allowing the team to carry a just a 2B/SS guy in the other backup infield spot. Phelps or Wilson (presumably out of the picture by now) could catch in a pinch.

2006-12-13 07:24:41
47.   Cliff Corcoran
Assuming 17 was a shot at me (it doesn't actually come out and say much of anything), I find it perplexing given that my post counters Klesko's excellent career split stats with mentions of his surgery, missed time, failing power, and questionable fielding. Was there something I missed? His odor, I suppose.

Interesting to see Claussen get non-tendered considering the cries that went up when the Yanks traded him. I liked the deal at the time it was made. I was wrong, but not because of what Claussen has done, but because of what Boone and Gabe White failed to do (anything other than that one homer). Eduardo Sierra, half of what the Yanks sent to Colorado for Shawn Chacon, was also non-tendered . . . by the White Sox.

2006-12-13 07:25:29
48.   mehmattski
Speaking of Clippard, why no link to his mL or BC stats on the sidebar? Do you think he'll be stuck at the minor league camp this spring?
2006-12-13 07:30:11
49.   Count Zero
33 If you're intimating it was a homophobic comment, I think you read a little too much into it.

Hey, I don't have any problem with lively discussion, disagreement, or even the use of sarcasm to make a point / counterpoint. But when you flat out call someone "ignorant" on a board, that's gone from discussion to personal insult. Act the way you want -- but the way I always saw it was: insulting people in a discussion is neither productive nor useful. The inevitable consequence is that the offended person comes back with a bigger insult (or just more of them) and it escalates from there.