Peter is great. Glad he's with us. On the baseball notes:

1. Phillips is okay. Wilson is better. Sign Wilson.
2. Manny being traded makes me smile. Go to COH.
3. Zaun is a drag. Carlos Maldonado.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yenjwf

Zaun would have made a nice addition as a backup catcher.

Now they'll have their choice of Molina or Barajas.

Career ML Stats
Andy Phillips (29): 294 AB .228/.296/.361 9 HR 70 K 16 BB .870 ZR/.988 FPct/-1 FRAR

Daryle Ward (31): 2022 AB .262/.314/.445 83 HR 375 K 154 BB .864 ZR/.993 FPct/+2 FRAR

Aaron Guiel (34): 970 AB 246/.322/.414 35 HR 218 K 83 BB (only 68 innings at 1B)

Craig Wilson (30): 1952 AB .265/.354/.480 98 HR 618 K 190 BB .842 ZR/.993 FPct/-2 FRAR

I think I'm gonna agree with NoMass for once: Craig Wilson, Craig Wilson, Craig Wilson...

Overpay (by $1-2 mil) for Zaun if necessary. Tell him he's got a better chance for a ring with NY than with Toronto.

Crud. Zaun would have made a nice backup catcher, and allowed for using Jorge at 1B, as Cliff suggested.

3 I know the difference between leagues hasn't always been as stark as it was last year. But - given that there is a difference, I was curious as to the translated numbers for those guys. Here's what BP's Davenport translations say:

Phillips - 281 AB, .224/.271/.402, 10 HR, 66 K, 18 BB

Ward - 1964 AB, .259/.311/.440, 85 HR, 349 K, 142 BB

Guiel - 933 AB, .244/.327/.420, 40 HR, 202 K, 86 BB

Wilson - 1894 AB, .265/.353/.486, 98 HR, 580 K, 181 BB

So, I guess the league difference doesn't matter that much. Wilson does seem like the way to go.

1 Manny gettting traded makes me smile too. I can't wait for the Big Papi to have a Big Pouting because of his lack of protection, oh, and his severely undervalued contract. Shoot, if he was going to compain with Manny behind him, imagine the fun that will ensue without Manny!

2 No thanks on either. I'd rather see Piazza's creaky knees or even Wil Nieves before I see the OPP of Molina or Barajas in pinstripes.

3 After Piazza for C/1B and 100 games, I agree:

Craig Wilson, Craig Wilson, Craig Wilson

4 The Jays can offer the starting spot which I think he'd prefer over a bit more cahs. {PLus, if that report is accurate, I can't see the point of paying 10 million for two years of 35 yo Zaun.

2 I'm on the Barajas Bandwagon - go get him!

It seems Darth Larry is over in Japan working the Lions to get them to reduce what they take for the bid:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2678439

It's a good way to go - seal the bid with something huge, get Seibu to accept less, then spin the extra into the DM deal.

But the fact that they sent him to Japan and he's already posturing about a "fair and comprehensive" deal is very interesting - like they're all ready to start fighting Boras. I have yet to see an instance of Boras not getting what he wants. It should be fun - what two weeks to go?

8 Thanks for that link. If the Red Sox are able to re-work their bid amount after the fact, the Yankees should file a grievance or take some kind of legal action to expose, and perhaps prevent this preposterous scenario.

If the Red Sox end up paying less than 51.1 million, than the "posting process" is reduced to a ridiculous exercise of who can write down the highest number on a piece of paper. It makes it even more galling that the Yanks didn't win if what you end up actually paying has no relation to the winning post.

Craig Wilson is not coming back. Torre left him off the playoff roster in favor of Andy Phillips. Joe likes to have his pets on the bench and this is one of them.

Career stats for Wilson???

Did you not watch him play the final three months??

Apparently not.

And Jorgie play 1b??? I think Torre, Cashman and the infielders would rather sit for root canal.

9 I agree that the Yanks should file a grievance if Seibu gives back some of the $51m. They should also file a grievance if the Sox don't come to terms with the pitcher.

Seibu cant give the money back or rework it to make things easier for Boston.

Every cent of the 51+ mill has to be accounted for and paid to Seibu.

They shouldnt try to play hardball with Boras. Hes better at it then they are.

11 Size matter as in the sample. Just as in you wouldn't give Wilson 6 million a year if he had a huge three month, he should be discounted because he had a bad three months. He's a better option than anyone else the Yanks have under their control and better than any other FA 1B out there. However, if it's Torre's pet 10 issue, then there's probably not much that can be done. However if Wilson can be had cheaply (2 years at 6 million or so), he should be signed and given time to at least compete with Phillips. But I also think they kept Andy in the post-season because of his defense. What you gain in defense you lose in offense, even as I'm not sure the converse is true.

9 12 I think it's legit, but only so long as they still end up paying Seibu the highest bid - like 41 million. After that I agree, though I'm not sure much can be done as it assumes that all of the final figures become public AND Selig is willing to do something about it.

11 1952AB > 104AB. Always.

As for Posada, he can't really be much worse than Giambi. And while he doesn't have much, he has some experience @ 1b. No reason he couldn't play there on his days off.

12 "They should also file a grievance if the Sox don't come to terms with the pitcher."

Why on earth would they do that? Wouldn't it be a good thing for the Yanks if they can't work out a deal?

13 Who says? The Red Sox can agree to pay Seibu 51 mil and Seibu can agree to pay DM a 10 million "sayonara" bonus. It's the same money - but worked to get around the rules.

But that involves all three parties coordinating the agreements - the posting fee, the contract, and a "bonus". The Sox are very much looking at the bottomline, and each aspect affects the others. And Darth Larry is the guy to hammer something out that everyone can agree on. Good thing Boras is such a pain, er, good at his job.

Of all the parties involved it's to Seibu's benefit to get the deal done. If they have a choice between 41 mil or nothing, I'm pretty sure they ch-ch-choose the former.

Craig Wilson does not deserve to wear pinstripes ever again

16 IIRC, the Yankees weren't the second-highest bidders - the Mets were, no? So if the Red Sox don't sign him, it wouldn't hel pthe Yankees to grieve it. Just let him go back home.

However, I'll be very surprised if the Sox don't sign him.

Trade Manny. Please trade Manny.

The Soxaholix is speculating that the Red Sox may know more about Manny's "phantom injury" than they're letting on. Of course it's all speculation, but it gives a new angle to the trade rumors. I can't imagine the trade going through without any pending physicals, but then again, we've seen anything is possible.

It may be legal, or whatever, for Seibu to kick back money in the form of a bonus to Matsuzaka, but it shouldn't be. It turns the posting process into a farce. Why shouldn't a team bid a billion dollars, then after they've won negotiate with the Japanese team for a reasonable sum? If there's anything Selig can do to prevent Lucchino from pulling this trick, I bet he'll try.

18 "Deserve's got nuthin' to do with it..." - William Munny

19 I was under the impression that if no deal was struck in the time allotted, DMat had to go back and play for the Lions for another year. Seibu would lose the 51 million from the Sox, and he would simply enter the free agent pool for 2008.

Looks like Boston thought, in the back of their minds, that Boras would somehow lighten up on the actual MLB contract because the posting bid was so high.

21 The Mariners did the same thing with Ichiro, IIRC from our discussions a few weeks ago. The bid was $13 million, but I remember reading that the Orix Blue Wave only ever received about a half of that.

21 If Selig finds out about it, he can definitely do something to prevent it. The agreement gives him pretty complete authority to decide what constitutes shady dealing and what the penalty should be.

22 LOVE that movie. good call.

22 I don't think there's anything "wrong" about it - it's a business. But rather than have Japanese teams flooded with interest, this is a way to limit interest to one team at a time. They bid for that right. What happens afterwards is anybody's guess. If the Yanks were doing the same thing we'd be applauding them for their business sense.

I don't think Selig would care much if they pay a significant chunk of the original bid, the player gets a fair contract, and comes to the MLB. That would show the posting process "works". I see Selig more likely to get involved if a deal doesn't get done than if one does get done.

I really do wonder if all this hoopla is just silly, just like the Sux fleecing poor Florida last year in the Beckett deal. WOuldn't it be a hoot if DM goes 16-10 with a 4.20 ERA and 160 K's in 200 innings with 100 BB.

25 I don't think there's any question about Selig finding out. It's in the Boston Herald

http://tinyurl.com/y9c2oo

27 in all likelihood, don't you think DM will have a year along those lines?

25 Except that we've already seen Selig get involved in Red Sox-Japan shenanigans - the whole "Kevin Millar is going to Japa . . . oops I mean the Red Sox" thing. This does not give me much hope for Bud to do the right thing.

20 I don't think the Dodgers would get taken in by the Sox if Manny's 'phantom injury' is really bad - I hope. Especially not if they give up LaRoche or (shudder) James Looney.

That is what worries me about the Sox trading Manny, if they get back a Grade A-close-to-the-majors blue chip prospect to fill an organizational hole. Ned Colleti was dumb enough to sign Pierre to that contract, so he's dumb enough to do anything. The thought of Matt Kemp or James Looney in a Sox uniform for the next 6 years, in that ballpark, at cheap salary, scares me.

I wonder what the Dodgers Thoughts folks think of a Manny deal? McCourt does seem to have a fetish for former Boston players.

25, 28 Someone alert Kofi Annan!

24 But did they spin the other 6 million into Ichiro's deal? That's I think the question being discussed.

Based on that I should amend what I said about Seibu. It seems they can point to the other bids, and Selig, if the Sux try to strong arm them into taking less than 30 million. Indeed, if DM doesn't sign they have just as much of a PR mess and can come clean with whatever attempts were made, esp to Selig. That's where the bad faith clause comes into play - as a way to save a posting in which the negotiations go bad. The next team could then get the rights to negotiate. That's where the 30 day window also seems necessary.

So it seems that Bahstan is on the hook for 35-40 million in a posting fee, then the contract with Boras. So maybe they end up paying 90 million for four years. Still way over priced, but they find a way to avoid the luxury tax. That's good business but it still doesn't mean good baseball. The Manny, Nacy, and Lugo rumors show how far they are from that.

Jim 25, the point is that if re-negotiating post hoc is allowed, then, as jonnystrongleg 9 put it, 'the "posting process" is reduced to a ridiculous exercise of who can write down the highest number on a piece of paper.' Surely it's in Selig's interest to prevent that, if he can.

31 Oops, I guess he already knows 27... >;)

29 I think that's exactly what he'll do - esp more walks and fewer K's and that will lead to an average year. But it seems few folks agree.

30 I agree - that's the worst case scenario. The word is Manny doesn't want to go to the NL. And he has the right to veto.

33 It's not perfect, but it has worked so far. They prob change it. Even still, my bet is the Sox will still have to pay around what the highest bid was, then sign the deal - any way you add it, that's still alot of risk.

But heck, maybe they realized the "write the highest number down" could work, and their plan is as it's worked. Still, they have to work out compensation with Seibu and Boras. And that's going to be 70-80 million for 3 to 4 years. I'm glad it's not the Yankees.

33 I don't exactly understand why he couldn't, though I can speculate why he wouldn't. His biggest weapon would have to be the "best interest of baseball" precedent, seeing that not all teams could operate on the same scale as Boston (never mind NY) if this kind of back-alley negotiating is allowed. It's not the same as scouting an international free-agent who is free to sign with whom he chooses.

The posting process is obviously there for the interest of the Japanese team, so as to recoup their loss of servicable players and not not let the team or the league fold. The only logical interest they would have in the American side of the process is to hope that the player and the MMLB team make a deal, and perhaps they would bend their own demands to ensure that. However, precedent has to be established on this side for the league as a whole and not for the interest of saving face for a particular team or the Japanese league.

If what people suspect is happening is allowed, I give again that there should be no reason for a large-market team not to establish a base in Japan and groom players on their own; even to negotiate development deals with teams in financial hardship or in the same manner as Triple-A teams. I'm saying, if one is possible, anything is possible.

Intermission? Lunch break?

"Manny gettting traded makes me smile too. I can't wait for the Big Papi to have a Big Pouting because of his lack of protection"

i dont know if i buy this (very prevalent) argument... in 2004, Bonds had no protection and was walked 232 times (but he still managed to hit 45 hrs for a whopping 1.422 OPS) also, i'd have to research it, but ive heard that the intentional walk thing often backfires and casues more runs than it prevents. who knows though, ortiz is not bonds.

16 if the Sox don't come to terms, I would argue that their $51.1 was not a good faith bid. I would ask the Commissioner to re-open negotiations with the team that made the 2nd highest bid.

39
The revised edition of Bill James' Historical Abstract has a study where he surrounded Babe with a bunch of scrubs, the upshot was that walking Babe all the time hurt more than pitching to him.

39 There was a brief discussion of this at Baseball Musings recently. Pinto speculated that having a man on first is the best 'protection' for a batter, since even managers realize that you're doing a team a big favor by walking a runner into scoring position. A commenter recalled a small study looking at Dale Murphy and whether he was protected by Bob Horner and concluding that he wasn't.

40 If that policy were generally known, it would give Boras enormous leverage.

Id rather take my chances with JD Drew, Mike Lowell or Varitek than Ortiz with a man on and a base open and the game on the line.

Let the stat freaks figure that one out.

44 Well, J D Drew will hit a double or homer once in every ten times at bat; if you walk Ortiz, Drew will knock him in 1/10 of the time. If you pitch to Ortiz, he homers once every 16 times.
There are times when it makes sense, but on average you'll be giving away runs and games if you mindlessly walk Ortiz to pitch to Drew.

Hey, does this mean I'm a stat freak?

Yea, you would be a stat freak if you would rather face Ortiz than JD Drew. That's a great decision to make.

You're also a stat freak if you sign JD Drew to a 15 mill a yr deal.

But I'm glad theres people like that in charge in Boston now.

"The Hanshin Tigers have accepted the top bid -- believed to be about $25 million -- for left-handed pitcher Kei Igawa, SI.com has learned.

Major League Baseball is expected to announce Tuesday night which team won the bidding."

SI.com

47 My sources tell me the winning team is the Montreal Canadiens. Of course, that's what my sources always say. And they are always wrong.

I'd rather face Ortiz with one man on than Drew with two, yeah. I don't like giving away runs to the Red Sox, so I wouldn't walk Ortiz unless there were some special aspect of the situation that called for it.

I don't get the part about stat freaks signing J D Drew to $15/year. I'm pretty sure you'll find that it's the stat freaks who manage to avoid paying huge salaries, so I think you've got it entirely backwards.

45 No, it means you have common sense.

I guess some guys here have actually never watched Ortiz or Drew play.

It takes a little more than actually reading a stat sheet to see how guys play and what to do during a game.

But if you insist on pitching to Ortiz and not facing Drew you're out of your mind.

I think its pretty clear that every pitcher in the AL will do backflips once Manny is gone and they can attack Ortiz and see Drew in the on deck circle.

51 I've hardly ever seen Drew play, but I've seen Ortiz many, many times. I can't see his magical aura, however, so you probably have a big advantage there.

On average, over time, your approach will give up more runs. Watching the awesome majesty that is Ortiz won't change that plain fact. His majestical aura, it turns out, doesn't produce runs.

So, it comes down to this:
If your goal is aura-avoidance, then by all means, walk Papi every time. If your goal is to keep the other team from scoring runs, then pitch to him unless the game is tied in the bottom of the ninth, or some other special situation in which the extra runs (the ones the Magical Aura method gives the Red Sox) don't matter.

Cliff, Alex? Can we get RIYank an award for that post (52)? hilarious.

"If your goal is aura-avoidance"

That has always been my goal.

51 "I guess some guys here have actually never watched Ortiz or Drew play. It takes a little more than actually reading a stat sheet to see how guys play and what to do during a game."

I agree with you up to a point. You're right, watching someone play can tell you things that stats can't. But there are two conditions:

(1) You have to watch the player with clear eyes, without all the preconceived notions of clutchitudity and such; and

(2) You have to watch him all the time. I've seen Derek Jeter play all the time for 11 years, and I don't need advance metrics to tell me about his fielding. On the other hand, I only see Ortiz play 19 times a year, which makes it just anecdotal information. At that point, I'm not going to trust my eyes over the stats.

52 "If your goal is aura-avoidance, then by all means, walk Papi every time."

Wow. Most people with a "majestical aura" make others run. Not Papi. He makes people walk. Aye-yi-yi, what a guy.

BTW, is the Magical Aura related in any way to the Immaculate Conception?