Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Our man Pete Abraham is back and has the highlights of yesterday's Yankee action. It'll be fun following the Baseball Winter Meetings next week via The Lo-Hud. Man, it seems as if Manny Ramirez might actually be traded this year. Go figure. With Rich Aurillia reportedly close to signing a deal with the San Francisco Giants, Andy Phillips may get another shot at backing up Giambi, after all. Elsewhere, according to the Globe and Mail, Greg Zaun will re-sign with the Blue Jays. Drag.
1. Phillips is okay. Wilson is better. Sign Wilson.
2. Manny being traded makes me smile. Go to COH.
3. Zaun is a drag. Carlos Maldonado.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yenjwf
Now they'll have their choice of Molina or Barajas.
Andy Phillips (29): 294 AB .228/.296/.361 9 HR 70 K 16 BB .870 ZR/.988 FPct/-1 FRAR
Daryle Ward (31): 2022 AB .262/.314/.445 83 HR 375 K 154 BB .864 ZR/.993 FPct/+2 FRAR
Aaron Guiel (34): 970 AB 246/.322/.414 35 HR 218 K 83 BB (only 68 innings at 1B)
Craig Wilson (30): 1952 AB .265/.354/.480 98 HR 618 K 190 BB .842 ZR/.993 FPct/-2 FRAR
I think I'm gonna agree with NoMass for once: Craig Wilson, Craig Wilson, Craig Wilson...
3 I know the difference between leagues hasn't always been as stark as it was last year. But - given that there is a difference, I was curious as to the translated numbers for those guys. Here's what BP's Davenport translations say:
Phillips - 281 AB, .224/.271/.402, 10 HR, 66 K, 18 BB
Ward - 1964 AB, .259/.311/.440, 85 HR, 349 K, 142 BB
Guiel - 933 AB, .244/.327/.420, 40 HR, 202 K, 86 BB
Wilson - 1894 AB, .265/.353/.486, 98 HR, 580 K, 181 BB
So, I guess the league difference doesn't matter that much. Wilson does seem like the way to go.
2 No thanks on either. I'd rather see Piazza's creaky knees or even Wil Nieves before I see the OPP of Molina or Barajas in pinstripes.
3 After Piazza for C/1B and 100 games, I agree:
Craig Wilson, Craig Wilson, Craig Wilson
4 The Jays can offer the starting spot which I think he'd prefer over a bit more cahs. {PLus, if that report is accurate, I can't see the point of paying 10 million for two years of 35 yo Zaun.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2678439
It's a good way to go - seal the bid with something huge, get Seibu to accept less, then spin the extra into the DM deal.
But the fact that they sent him to Japan and he's already posturing about a "fair and comprehensive" deal is very interesting - like they're all ready to start fighting Boras. I have yet to see an instance of Boras not getting what he wants. It should be fun - what two weeks to go?
If the Red Sox end up paying less than 51.1 million, than the "posting process" is reduced to a ridiculous exercise of who can write down the highest number on a piece of paper. It makes it even more galling that the Yanks didn't win if what you end up actually paying has no relation to the winning post.
Did you not watch him play the final three months??
Apparently not.
And Jorgie play 1b??? I think Torre, Cashman and the infielders would rather sit for root canal.
Every cent of the 51+ mill has to be accounted for and paid to Seibu.
They shouldnt try to play hardball with Boras. Hes better at it then they are.
9 12 I think it's legit, but only so long as they still end up paying Seibu the highest bid - like 41 million. After that I agree, though I'm not sure much can be done as it assumes that all of the final figures become public AND Selig is willing to do something about it.
As for Posada, he can't really be much worse than Giambi. And while he doesn't have much, he has some experience @ 1b. No reason he couldn't play there on his days off.
Why on earth would they do that? Wouldn't it be a good thing for the Yanks if they can't work out a deal?
But that involves all three parties coordinating the agreements - the posting fee, the contract, and a "bonus". The Sox are very much looking at the bottomline, and each aspect affects the others. And Darth Larry is the guy to hammer something out that everyone can agree on. Good thing Boras is such a pain, er, good at his job.
Of all the parties involved it's to Seibu's benefit to get the deal done. If they have a choice between 41 mil or nothing, I'm pretty sure they ch-ch-choose the former.
However, I'll be very surprised if the Sox don't sign him.
Trade Manny. Please trade Manny.
Looks like Boston thought, in the back of their minds, that Boras would somehow lighten up on the actual MLB contract because the posting bid was so high.
I don't think Selig would care much if they pay a significant chunk of the original bid, the player gets a fair contract, and comes to the MLB. That would show the posting process "works". I see Selig more likely to get involved if a deal doesn't get done than if one does get done.
I really do wonder if all this hoopla is just silly, just like the Sux fleecing poor Florida last year in the Beckett deal. WOuldn't it be a hoot if DM goes 16-10 with a 4.20 ERA and 160 K's in 200 innings with 100 BB.
http://tinyurl.com/y9c2oo
20 I don't think the Dodgers would get taken in by the Sox if Manny's 'phantom injury' is really bad - I hope. Especially not if they give up LaRoche or (shudder) James Looney.
That is what worries me about the Sox trading Manny, if they get back a Grade A-close-to-the-majors blue chip prospect to fill an organizational hole. Ned Colleti was dumb enough to sign Pierre to that contract, so he's dumb enough to do anything. The thought of Matt Kemp or James Looney in a Sox uniform for the next 6 years, in that ballpark, at cheap salary, scares me.
I wonder what the Dodgers Thoughts folks think of a Manny deal? McCourt does seem to have a fetish for former Boston players.
Based on that I should amend what I said about Seibu. It seems they can point to the other bids, and Selig, if the Sux try to strong arm them into taking less than 30 million. Indeed, if DM doesn't sign they have just as much of a PR mess and can come clean with whatever attempts were made, esp to Selig. That's where the bad faith clause comes into play - as a way to save a posting in which the negotiations go bad. The next team could then get the rights to negotiate. That's where the 30 day window also seems necessary.
So it seems that Bahstan is on the hook for 35-40 million in a posting fee, then the contract with Boras. So maybe they end up paying 90 million for four years. Still way over priced, but they find a way to avoid the luxury tax. That's good business but it still doesn't mean good baseball. The Manny, Nacy, and Lugo rumors show how far they are from that.
30 I agree - that's the worst case scenario. The word is Manny doesn't want to go to the NL. And he has the right to veto.
But heck, maybe they realized the "write the highest number down" could work, and their plan is as it's worked. Still, they have to work out compensation with Seibu and Boras. And that's going to be 70-80 million for 3 to 4 years. I'm glad it's not the Yankees.
The posting process is obviously there for the interest of the Japanese team, so as to recoup their loss of servicable players and not not let the team or the league fold. The only logical interest they would have in the American side of the process is to hope that the player and the MMLB team make a deal, and perhaps they would bend their own demands to ensure that. However, precedent has to be established on this side for the league as a whole and not for the interest of saving face for a particular team or the Japanese league.
If what people suspect is happening is allowed, I give again that there should be no reason for a large-market team not to establish a base in Japan and groom players on their own; even to negotiate development deals with teams in financial hardship or in the same manner as Triple-A teams. I'm saying, if one is possible, anything is possible.
i dont know if i buy this (very prevalent) argument... in 2004, Bonds had no protection and was walked 232 times (but he still managed to hit 45 hrs for a whopping 1.422 OPS) also, i'd have to research it, but ive heard that the intentional walk thing often backfires and casues more runs than it prevents. who knows though, ortiz is not bonds.
The revised edition of Bill James' Historical Abstract has a study where he surrounded Babe with a bunch of scrubs, the upshot was that walking Babe all the time hurt more than pitching to him.
Let the stat freaks figure that one out.
There are times when it makes sense, but on average you'll be giving away runs and games if you mindlessly walk Ortiz to pitch to Drew.
Hey, does this mean I'm a stat freak?
You're also a stat freak if you sign JD Drew to a 15 mill a yr deal.
But I'm glad theres people like that in charge in Boston now.
Major League Baseball is expected to announce Tuesday night which team won the bidding."
SI.com
I don't get the part about stat freaks signing J D Drew to $15/year. I'm pretty sure you'll find that it's the stat freaks who manage to avoid paying huge salaries, so I think you've got it entirely backwards.
It takes a little more than actually reading a stat sheet to see how guys play and what to do during a game.
But if you insist on pitching to Ortiz and not facing Drew you're out of your mind.
I think its pretty clear that every pitcher in the AL will do backflips once Manny is gone and they can attack Ortiz and see Drew in the on deck circle.
On average, over time, your approach will give up more runs. Watching the awesome majesty that is Ortiz won't change that plain fact. His majestical aura, it turns out, doesn't produce runs.
So, it comes down to this:
If your goal is aura-avoidance, then by all means, walk Papi every time. If your goal is to keep the other team from scoring runs, then pitch to him unless the game is tied in the bottom of the ninth, or some other special situation in which the extra runs (the ones the Magical Aura method gives the Red Sox) don't matter.
That has always been my goal.
I agree with you up to a point. You're right, watching someone play can tell you things that stats can't. But there are two conditions:
(1) You have to watch the player with clear eyes, without all the preconceived notions of clutchitudity and such; and
(2) You have to watch him all the time. I've seen Derek Jeter play all the time for 11 years, and I don't need advance metrics to tell me about his fielding. On the other hand, I only see Ortiz play 19 times a year, which makes it just anecdotal information. At that point, I'm not going to trust my eyes over the stats.
Wow. Most people with a "majestical aura" make others run. Not Papi. He makes people walk. Aye-yi-yi, what a guy.
I think Manny's gonna stay in the AL, where he's comfy and where his defense should be less of a liability. As the cameraman said in "Tootsie," "How do you feel about Cleveland?"
My fingers are crossed LA doesn't trade Loney to anyone. The guy can hit and rake with the best of them.
As for Manny, the Shef trade seems like what most teams are going on. But that seems way undervalue for Manny, esp since Shef "required" the extension. In any case, I can deal with one A prospect and two B's. LaRoche seems like he fits the A bill. Who's the B prospects you're willing to part with?
52 Very well said.
I'd also like to point out that I have watched many baseball games, but I can't remember everything that happens, so its nice to have stats. Which, after all, are nothing more than a record of what happened in the games.
Apropos of nothing (nod to Deadspinners), I just though y'all would enjoy this story: So I've had this computer for three years, and it's had electrical problems, and is currently being fixed for the third time in a year. The warranty runs out at the end of the year, so I've decide to Ebay the old computer and buy a new one. And I rationalized my plan to my father (a Yankees fan as well) with the following analogy:
It's kind of like the Yankees with Jaret Wright. They knew they could pick up his option (stick with current finicky computer), but he's likely to explode any minute, and then they'd be out a pitcher. They could decline his option (just buy a new computer), but that would cost money, and they'd be out a pitcher. So instead, they offered to pay the difference between the salary (new computer) and the buyout (worth of the old computer)... and got something in trade.
Then he understood. Unfortunately the analogy breaks down in assuming that Chris Britton is a better computer than Jaret Wright. But I got my point across.
Also, Jim Dean 60 has apparently joined the ranks of being able to see the future.
Adventures in cross-referencing...
I suppose not wanting to use stats has become more of a paradigm shift in which folks think things are being snuck past them. It's probably just that the stats take extra work and the "statheads" have been more confrontational than mentoring. Indeed, it's not too surprising that the one "advanced" stat that has entered (more) common use is OPS - because it's so easy to understand. Of course, now the sabr community has moved away from it. And Eqa, while easy to understand, is not so easy to calculate and so won't be seen in newspapers anytime soon.
I meant 58.
And is the winning bidder an expert in cajoling life out of finicky computers?
Wouldn't a better analogy be: Trading your computer with a scary electrical problems but much better potential to go the long haul for a machine for only short-term solutions but less likely to go haywire?
Schrodinger's cat is not dead.
Really? I would think it's the other way around. A lot of people still are a bit afraid of stats; I've gotten into enough bar arguments to know that. I've tried explaining my position and what these stats mean, but if people aren't willing to listen, what's the point.
How many times have you made a point using stats and logic only to be told "I saw the games, the stats don't tell the whole story?"
It's broken down every which way.
It will be good if he leaves. I doubt Drew can match that record.
http://www.waswatching.com/archives/2006/11/let_me_count_th.html
Most salaries in baseball today are nauseating to think about, but no, all things being relative, and with 9 million the new 3 million, 7.5 for a low-risk one year for a pretty good starter is not questionable at all imho.
The "Bronx Banter/Fire Joe Morgan Award for Outstanding Achievement in the Field of Excellence in Biting Wit"
It can be given during the 7th inning stretch of the home opener, soon to be known as the "Jiffy Lube/McDonalds/Planter's Peanuts/ Wal Mart/Yomiuri Shimbun/Taco Bell 7th Inning Stretchapaloooooooooooooooo-za"
Sorry.
"Igawa is a fine pitcher with a shot at being a very good #2 or #3 pitcher in the Majors. If the Yankees are unsuccessful in their bid for Matsuzaka, or even if they are successful for that matter, they should look into acquiring Igawa at a far lower price. He's going to come in under the radar thanks to the Daisuke hype. He's also a far better option than Jeff Suppan or Jaret Wright. Keep your eyes peeled."
That sounds good to me. A #3 seems to be what's left at best on the MLB FA list (i.e.) Zito and if he's looking for $90 million over 6 I'd say we'll get a bargain even with a $25 million bid. That is really crazy money just for the right to have a cup of coffee with his agent. Glad it's not mine.
$25M is silly.
84 3-4 is optimistic. He's Ted Lilly, at best. A 4/5 guy to shove Pavano out the door, or stand in the way of Phil Hughes.
But lets be fair here. No one will stand in the way of Hughes.
Moose
Randy
Pavano
Igawa
I see five pitchers, if this isn't a prelude to dealing Pavano. Suppose Igawa ends up making 5-7 million a year, I don't see how you would sit him. If the Yanks don't expect to start him in the majors immediately, why bid $25 mill?
To me, this suggests the front office is at least considering keeping Hughes in AAA next year, perhaps with only a late callup.
Verducci has a great article on that exact thing on Si.com today
A full, or even 2/3 of a season in AAA would be a waste for Hughes, unless he has some problem progressing. And yet, it looks like we could get just that. Wang, Moose, Randy and Pavano will have to pitch with their skill/money, and Igawa, quite resonably, will expect to play for the major league club.
With Rasner or Karstens as the 5 guy, the Yanks had alot more flexibility.
it's rare when 5 guys stick around to make most of the starts for half a season - but considering that 2 of these guys might not be healthy out of spring training and the other has never thrown a pitch in the MLB, you'll have to forgive me if i don't see having those 5 names as prohibitive in any way shape or form.
you're really expecting pavano to start the season AND be effective immediately? really?
So the April rotation is...
Wang, Mussina, Igawa, Proctor, ???? (don't really need a 5th SP in April)
...May
Wang, Mussina, Johnson, Igawa, Proctor
...August
Wang, Mussina, Johnson, Hughes, Igawa - Proctor to pen
This assumes Randy Johnson coming back May 1. It has Karstens, Rasner, Sanchez as contingency plans and Hughes as an option later in the year. There is also a bumper crop of '08 free agent pitchers that should be on the trade market. I like what Cashman is doing. I think the Yanks go into '07 with a much stronger team. Calling Igawa the crappier of the two Japanese pitchers is like calling Matsui the crappier of the two Japanese OFs after Ichiro. Japan can produce more than one good player per position.
Igawa looks good to me - see for yourself at link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJ4SR8Icwvw
And I think everyone needs to slow down with Hughes. The Yanks aren't rushing him. He hasn't thrown over 150 innings yet, and he hasn't thrown over AA yet. Counting on seeing him in pinstripes before July is silly, and who knows, he may play all year in AAA. I would much rather see him gain some arm strength, gain some experience, and come up in 2008 ready for a full season then to rush him up this year with more pressure. We are talking long term here folks, not short term. Wouldn't you all rather "suffer" through a year with karstens/Rasner/Proctor to assure Hughes' long term success? I hardly think he would be "wasted" at AAA...
Actually, I think this means Pavano will be dealt. But if they really do want to stick with him, or if they can't find anyone willing to make a deal, he will be in the rotation.
If he's still on the payroll, but not in the rotation, his career should be over, and this Hughes thing is a moot point. Someone will stand in for Pavano through April and May, then step aside for Hughes. So Pavano has a big incentive to be active out of Spring Training, big enough that I suspect he will even pitch hurt, even though he probably doesn't like playing for NY (stop laughing at me!). He'll pitch, unless he truly incapable. He may well suck and get himself sent down to the minors, making room for Hughes that way, but that's nothing to root for.
As for Johnson and Igawa, I don't want them to pitch poorly or lose games or get injured just so Hughes can come up and pitch regularly, for the same reason.
But the money is silly. I hope the Yanks do indeed play the same games. The problem is that the Sux complete negotiations first and so Boras drives up the market.
Its always better to have extra pitchers. I dont think many teams get thru a yr with all 5 guys making 35 starts. And I dont see someone as talented as Hughes not forcing his way up and into the rotation.
http://tinyurl.com/yneqpf
I can't imagine he'd say anything else though. And if a deal does get done, I can't imagine anyone complaining, except other teams. Even then who's to know what really happened. The only way I can see something happening is if someone feels they got screwed - like Seibu. And then I think the rememdy is that fair negotiations clause.
So not much to see here - move along.
Is that "good faith"?
And sure, it's conceivable that the execs could swing an arrangement that would be hard to detect or prove, but it would be a nasty, nasty mess if they did pull something and word got out. John Henry would veto anything like that; no way he lays the rep of the Red Sox on the line for $10 million.
The same article has Boras saying that a Drew deal will be done in the winter meetings.
Finally, from what I'm hearing (on local and Boston radio), Boston expects to get maybe 50 cents on the baseball value dollar for Manny, say one good prospect and a mid-level. It's not age or injury but attitude that's driving the trade talks. So far I've only heard Padres, Giants, Dodgers, but for sure Manny would prefer the AL. Maybe the Angels will be getting a little Christmas gift?
102 If that's what the Sawx expect for Manny I think it makes the Sheff to Detroit deal look even better. You go Ca$hMoney.
Call it whatever you want - but I can't imagine Selig allowing one of these players to return to Japan. That's the one place where he'd step in, if any side didn't negotiate in "good faith". But you're probably right 101.
102 There's no way Manny gets dealt and the Sux get a lesser deal than the Shef pact. Manny is younger, healthier, and much better! The money isn't that different, esp since Shef required an extension, and I'd argue Manny has the better attitude.
The question I think is whether anyone wants to give up one A prospect and one B in this market these days (Yanks got a B+ and one C+ as per Sickles Pre-season rankings) or even two B level prospects. If anything Cash did an amazing job getting the Shef trade out of the way and getting something of value. Now if the Sux sign Nancy, I can't imagine how they don't lose value in a Manny trade. If a deal's not right, I'd say they end up putting Nancy in CF and Wiffy Mo in RF. Then maybe they go out and get a cheap option at SS or trade Coco for one. Man, they have a lot of holes - that doesn't even include the bullpen.
1. Igawa: he's ur typical lefty with a pulse, well alittle better than that, he's 27, and while his fastball isn't eye poping (not bad by lefty standards though) his secodaries are pretty good, it remains to be seen what he can do here, but he's almost certainly better than say.. jaret Wright, Shawn Chacon, or to Rasner/Karstan.
2.Wolf: at the market rate, it's fairly reasonable, low risk deal, and the Dodgers aren't exactly running on a low budget anyway. i just hope this doesn't lead them into doing something retarded like trading Kuo/ Billingsly for a slugger. (though since i'm huge Kuo fan i rather see him not on the same team as Juan Pierre for the next 5 year lol)
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.