Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Bobby Abreu drew a key, nine-pitch walk in his second at bat as a Yankee last night. It loaded the bases, and after A.J. Burnett came back to strike out Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams sent three runners home with a double to the gap in left center field (Alex Rodriguez had doubled home the first New York run earlier in the inning). The Yanks had a 4-1 lead, would add another run, and go on to defeat the Blue Jays, 5-1. Coupled with a Red Sox loss, the Yanks are now tied for first in the AL East.
Abrue was hitless in three other at bats, but was recieved warmly in the Bronx, hustling out a ground ball in his first at bat, and making a routine play closer than should have been. Jaret Wright threw a season-high 103 pitches, which got him through five innings. Ron Villone, Scott Proctor and Kyle Farnsworth pitched well in relief.
Gary Sheffield, expected to go mental with the addition of Abreu, had nothing but good things to say to reporters yesterday. According to Brian Lewis in The New York Post:
"A championship is on the way and that's what I'm looking forward to. I'm hurt; I can't help this club. They've got to do what they got to do to help this club. I'm all for it," Sheffield said. "If this helps I'm all for it."When I first got here, before Alex Rodriguez got here, I was willing to play third base. Thank God that didn't happen, but I feel the same way about this. I can do anything on the field: outfield, third base, first base. As long as I can get that ring I'm all for it."
Sheffield apparently has already ordered a first baseman's glove and is prepared to fight for a job. He was an odd mix of humility and hubris, something he called the "mystique of me," in Reggie-esque fashion.
"I love that people are in my face thinking this can't be done. I'll be laughing at the end: Watch me. You ask anybody on any team in the league would they want to be battling me over a position, they'll lose every time," said Sheffield, who'll see Dr. Charles Melone next Tuesday, and was bemused that many predicted he would erupt at Abreu's arrival.
"The first thing I did when I saw him was give him a hug. I wanted him to feel welcome. It's funny how people can think for you and tell you what you're going to do. Y'all think you know what I'm going to do, but you don't. Nobody knows. That's the mystique of me."
It's not quite on par with Reggie's "magnitude of me," line, but it's pretty good. And though Sheffield's mood has been known to turn suddenly and without warning, the Yankees (and their fans) must be breathing a sigh of relief to see him handling the Abreu deal in such good spirits.
Anything to make the team more versatile helps.
We got our riff, and we're ready for the mash, Mr. Sheffield. Get well soon.
I don't care where he plays, or how often. I want Sheff's bat in the lineup this season and next.
If we're seeing the Proctor-Farnswacker we're getting down the stretch, all's well, very well.
"Who is playing first base for us?" Sheffield said without mentioning the plodding Giambi. "If he can do it, I can do it."
sure enough, i wasn't the only one who felt like it was april all over again. kay mentioned it last night, and i've read that sentiment in a few of the bronx blogs.
so here's to the new season. Arod is batting .500, GOB leads the team in RBIs, and the Yank's magic number is 59.
Hmm, they all should have riffmash for dinner if it gets them five-up by the end of September.
One step closer to that glorious opening day lineup they had for all of, what, a month?
"Your attention please, ladies and gentlemen. Now stepping up to the microphone, my understudy, DJ Riff."
Two turntables and a microphone, and it's a smooth transition from Shepp to Sheff.
"Ring the alarm, another sound is dying, whoa, aye"
Shepp-Fu has maaddd skillz...
My guess is we get a look at Wilson tonight, with Giambi at DH. Wilson goes 3-4 against Lilly and the statue of Cashman is commissioned to begin...
NYTimes says Wilson will be starting tonight, I'm guessing at first with Giambi DHing, but we'll see.
{26]Now that, BklynBmr, is a far better dream than the one you had Sheff in. And you are forgetting the first Yankee HR by Abreu tonight.
30 I was kinda expecting one last night, which would have brought down the house. I have a feeling we'll see an outburst from him pretty soon.
Jeter
Giambi
Arod
Sheff
Abreu
Matsui
Cano
Posada
Damon
Jeter
Abreu
Arod
Giambi
Sheff
Matsui
Cano
Posada
Had it not been that particular situation (tie game, 2nd and 3rd) most managers argue enough to get tossed on that one.
Bernie
Melky
Wil-y
Phil-y
Miggy
Sally
Sturtzey
Razzy
Carly
Matsui
Sheffy
Wembly
Mokey
They talked about Abreu a little, but didn't really get into the one good AB or the display of speed he put on for the fans last night.
The talk was more about Carlos Guillen and his hitting for the cycle...
43 Welcome back, MFD - wondered where you'd been.
45 I think its all semantics, but I agree with you Bama. The loss column is really what matters.
Bernie is not awful or useless, but he was not the best option to have in the lineup last night. His getting a nice RBI double doesn't change that.
I wonder what our old pall R. Gee thinks of Bea Cash Money now?
they also have one more win than us..
so i think % points is the only viable thing..
I was cutting the grass that evening, not sure if it was before or after dinner. 11 years old, little league cap, gym shorts, late-summer tan, grass-stained sneakers.
It was hot and hazy, and I was probably going to play ball when I was done.
I was cutting the side yard, navigating the mower around our Japanese maple, when my dad came out of the house. He looked like someone had died. That was my first thought.
I shut down the mower, and he told me what happened.
"Munson was killed in a plane crash, it was just on TV."
I guess I asked the questions a kid would ask when he heard news like that.
I remember my dad looked sad, which was really unusual, and how sad I felt. My dad always had a moustache, still does, and I think Munson sort of reminded me of Pop. My dad was a tough kid from Whitestone, a lefty knuckleballer actually, who once had a try out with the team from the Bronx. He was an architect, but could be a little gruff. Munson could be a lotta gruff, but you had to love him, too.
I remember the silence between us, the cicadas buzzing in the trees and bushes. Strange, but I don't remember anything after that.
I'll think about Munson, and that sad moment I shared with my dad at the Stadium tonight.
One of my uncles died on this day, and the year before on tomorrow's date, my father passed away. This time of year is not a great time for me to say the least, but at least you can automatically recall the good times when you think of them. Look for all the hats to go off tonight, and profundity to briefly manifest.
Dear Thurman,
Thank you for being here and blessing us with the time you had. It still hurts a little, but we smile when your name comes up. All is well here and we do look forward to seeing you again when our time comes. Say hi to Mickey and all for us, and keep it cool.
Peace, BB
On that basis, 52 is right; just because GOB got the big hit last night doesn't mean the lineup decision was the right one. Sure the results worked, but it wasn't playing the percentages. Of course, we can celebrate Bernie for getting the hit and thank our lucky stars that Joe's poor percentage play worked out anyway.
Maybe the fans should add Thurman to the roll call tonight...
1) Sometimes we don't have all the info that Torre does (i.e. how does a player feel that day, how does juggling the lineup effect a player's ego/psyche, etc.) and therefore he might be making his decision on sound reasoning (more than just statistics).
2) I always lose the NCAA Basketball Pool beacuse I use the sound reasoning that a lower seed will always beat the higher seed. Then some clown who has not watched a game all year picks a few upsets and wins the money. I alway finish near the top, but I never win it all.
55 tommy, there was some bru-ha-ha between Rob and our Toaster host Mr. Ken Arneson, I don't remember all the details but if you search the June/July Bronx Banter archives it was discussed somewhere. It all started when Rob noticed that Alex was linking to SI game recaps instead of ESPN's . . .
62 That was a fantastic post. Absolutely perfect.
68 I prefer to think that one day Rob saw Milton Bradley get a gapper double and his head exploded cursing Cashman. Ah, the memories.
What if we measured the times a manager plays a "hunch" during a game? If a certain manager had a good rating (say Torre for example) and another manager had a bad rating (say Grady Little), wouldn't you rather have the manager who had the better "gut" or just a guy who always went by the book? I know it is unscientific and that seems to drive people crazy, but I think there is a place in baseball for playing "hunches". But what do I know, I graduated from a football school...
Allow me to add my kudos to Andrew's comments in 62. That sort of first-guessing is the basis for a great deal of what I do here. I'm half tempted to link that comment on the sidebar.
There is a time and place for hunches. Maybe you see someone hitting really well in BP or something. Maybe two players have very similar stats and you have to pick between them. For example, picking between Phillips and Wilson against a righty last night. Based on the sample size their OPS are virtually the same, so if Joe feels one has a hot hand, play the hunch. But when one player has an OPS 100 points lower than another I'm going to point out that its a bad decision to play the lesser player, as it was to play Bernie last night. Of course the fan in me rooted for Bernie and was happy to see him get the big hit. One has nothing to do with the other.
Cliff, maybe you can drop the link for your (excellent) post?
VS Righties:
April/May: .216/.259/.265
June/July: .297/.330/.515
It may change, but as long as he is out of the field, he may be OK against LHP or RHP. That said, I still would have DH'd Wilson last night.
Note: Got these numbers from another poster. If they are incorrect, I apologize.
At least we agree that hunches have their place. I would never try to start an arguement against using stats to make decisions (especially on this blog and since I do believe that stats are vital in making decisions), but I do think sound decisions can be made by things other than stats and sometimes a manager needs to listen to his "gut" if he has had success with that in the past.
As for hunches, I think they do have a place, especially because we don't have all the info about players, as Bama pointed out above. The problem is when the hunches are "stat-backed-up" - like playing Enrique Wilson because he's 10 for 20 against Pedro, or starting Randy Velarde at first base in the Serious just because he had good numbers against Randy Johnson in a small number of ABs . . .
YANKEES
Johnny Damon CF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Craig Wilson 1B (Yankees debut)
Bernie Williams DH
Melky Cabrera LF
Miguel Cairo 2B
Chien-Ming Wang RHP
Maybe Joe did have a plan, knowing that Giambi was probably going to sit today. Me and my darn shortsightedness.
I'm ready for a W streak, how 'bout you guys?
I thought this group could appreciate the satire...http://tinyurl.com/p3296
Also, why does our Wilson-Phillips platoon at first make me want to go on a diet... (I know, I know Carnie lost the weight but still her picture is on the CD cover... wait, not that I own that CD or anything... Hey Cliff, how do you delete a post?)
kill
- for a "Don't be a pussy, Gary Sheffield" autographed press photo.
86 I bet if you caught Sheff in the right mood, he'd sign a photo for you with that on it.
Who knew how truly bad Pavano would be. In another Universe, he could have been a great #3. He was considered one of the best, if not the best, pitcher to be had. The Sox wanted him. I think the decision was good... but the outcome has sucked.
"Hunches" are not just guesswork. They are usually based on intellectual knowledge, but knowledge that is not usually in the forefront when make a particular decision. You have a .300 BA guy and a .250 BA guy. The .300 has a big argument with wifey and slept in the basement. The .250 guy just got layed for the first time this month. Torre plays the .250 'on a hunch'.
But this is not a guess, but an intellectual decision based on his perceived state-of-mind of the 2 players. You don't make up your everyday lineup based on this kind of info, but as an exception it has merrit.
Back to baseball, then. All the studies have shown that batter v pitcher records are almost entirely small sample size. Therefore, the best decisions are made by putting the best starting cards onto the field. Players who get on base score more runs than players who get on base less. That said, many poker players have "favorite hands" that they play to mix things up, even if they have negative long term consequences. It seems that Joe Torre is playing a subpar hand (Bernie seems equivalent to J-9 offsuit in Hold'em). The negative results are long term, which is difficult for many to see. There are few negative short term results, because we all enjoy seeing Bernie bat, at that moment. If he messes up (which happens 70% of the time), we make excuses. But the short term positives, the clutch hits, the inside straights- they make Torre and others remember Bernie as good, despite an obvious negative long term effect.
In the end, you're right and you put it much more eloquently. Simply: baseball decisions based on positive long term results win baseball games. Play pocket aces, but when Seven-deuce off comes your way, fold and stare at the cocktail waitresses instead.
I think it's clear to all of us that Torre makes a lot of decisions that are looking at more than just the current game. Obviously his bullpen usage and even line-up choices are made with the "marathon, not sprint" theory of the season. What frustrates me sometimes is that his decision-making process is rarely clear to me. Aside from generally resting Jorge on day-after-night games or the equivalent, I don't know how he decides when someone needs a day off.
I'm sure he has some kind of methodology (including his tendency to play favorites), and I'm equally sure that he does it better than I would, but as a fan who likes to think along with the manager, it can be frustrating to have very little insight into his methods.
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