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Red Sox, vol. II: For Real This Time (Updated)
2006-05-09 09:49
by Cliff Corcoran

Last week's two-game series in Fenway Park was disappointing as scheduled and became even more so after the second game was rained out. The three-game series that kicks off tonight in the Bronx, however, should make up for it and then some, thanks in large part to some fantastic pitching match-ups. Both teams are skipping a starter due to yesterday's off day (Wright for the Yankees, Clement for the Red Sox), and the Red Sox fifth starter/place holder Lenny DiNardo started on Sunday, leaving us with the three best starters on each team for this week's series, the highlight of which, at least on paper, should be tomorrow's pairing of rejuvenated aces Curt Schilling (5-1, 3.02 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 45 K, 7 BB, 6 quality starts in 7 games) and Mike Mussina (5-1, 2.35 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 42 K, 8 BB, quality starts in all 7 games).

Coming into the season one would have thought that Thursday's matchup of soft-tossers Shawn Chacon and Tim Wakefield would be the most likely of these three games to be a high-scoring shootout, but given their performances over the past few weeks, tonight's match-up of fireballers Randy Johnson and Josh Beckett could be the wildest game of them all. In his last three starts, Beckett has posted this combined line:

16 IP, 16 H, 18 R, 17 ER, 6 HR, 10 BB, 11 K, 9.56 ERA

Meanwhile, in three of his last four starts, Johnson has done this:

15 IP, 22 H, 18 R, 18 ER, 2 HR, 8 BB, 8 K, 10.80 ERA

That's ugly enough in and of itself, but consider that, despite all of those crooked numbers, the two have combined to go 2-2 in those six games thanks to their offenses, which have scored 15 runs for Beckett and a whopping 32 for Johnson in those three games. That would seem to place the over-under on total runs scored tonight somewhere around 15.

Incidentally, the Yanks and Sox are still tied for first in the AL East, with the Yanks still ahead by percentage points and a game in the loss column due to having played two fewer games. Both teams have won five of their last six. The Sox have won their last four, the Yanks their last five and seven of their last eight.

The Red Sox roster has undergone only one meaningful change since last week, with righty reliever Manny Delcarmen having been demoted during yesterday's off day to be replaced before tonight's game by another minor league reliever, most likely either righty Jermaine Van Buren or lefty Mike Holtz. The one other change is that Hee Seop Choi was activated from his minor league rehab assignment and optioned down to Pawtucket.

As always, I'm perplexed by the Choi move as he's being kept off the 25-man roster by 38-year-old J.T. Snow, who has seen even less action than Andy Phillips in a similar role as an opposite-handed first baseman/defensive replacement. Snow has just three singles on the year and is hitting .158, though he has a .360 OBP due to five walks in 24 plate-appearances. Choi, meanwhile, hit .276/.434/.421 in 22 rehab games with the triple-A Paw Sox.

I suppose the logic is that since Snow never gets to play, and first baseman Kevin Youkilis is actually performing better against righties anyway, Choi would just rot on the bench. Better to have Snow, a superior defender who otherwise rots anyway, doing that than the high-potential Choi. Still, it's frustrating to see a talented hitter like Choi spend his age-27 season trapped in triple-A. Not that I don't have practice. (Incidentally, there was some discussion of Choi having to clear waivers in order to return to the minors but it appears he had an option left—which means the Sox can bring him up and send him down at will all year. [Update: After digging further into the option rules it appears Choi did have to pass through waivers because, though he did have an option left, he also has three years of major league service time. So not only did the Sox option him down, but they exposed him to waivers in order to do it, and to make things a zillion times worse, the Yankees didn't put in a claim. Carlos Pena is hitting .200/.384/.309 in Columbus, there's no reason not to give him the heave-ho in favor of Choi, especially as it would get him away from the Red Sox in the process. Someone please explain to me why Doug Mientkiewicz is a starting major league first baseman and Hee Seop Choi can't get claimed off waivers. Anyone? Bueller?])

Finally, with a stint on the 15-day DL still a possibility for Gary Sheffield due to the wrist injury he suffered after colliding with Shea Hillenbrand at first base a little over a week ago (he's played in just two games since, going 0 for 5 in his lone start), I'd like to throw my support behind Kevin Thompson, who appears to be vying with Melky Cabrera for what could be a two-week stint as the Yankees starting right fielder. True, Cabrera has performed better thus far this year in triple-A (.385/.430/.566 to Thompson's .286/.382/.429), but I really don't want to see Cabrera in the majors prior to September. Still just 21, Cabrera could have a real future with the Yankees and I'd much rather see him left alone to continue his development without being jerked around like he was last year, when he went from Trenton through Columbus and up to the majors in just a couple of weeks only to be quickly returned to the Clippers and finish the year back in double-A. Thompson, meanwhile, is 26 and, though he projects to be a fourth outfielder at best, he should be filling that role with the Yankees this year in place of Bernie Williams, who has been hot of late, but has had just two of his twenty hits this season go for extra bases and has as many walks as J.T. Snow who has had only 28 percent as many plate appearances. In addition to wanting to coddle Cabrera some, I'd like to see Thompson come up and make Joe Torre seriously reconsider his outfield depth chart.

Speaking of which, further amunition for blasting Tanyon Sturtze off the roster: Ramiro Mendoza has finally finished his extended spring training. In his first outing in Columbus he pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings, allowing just one hit and walking none while striking out three. Mendoza has been nothing but excellent since returning to action last August and gives the Yankees a third candidate for Sturtze's bullpen slot along with the recently demoted Matt Smith and the Godot-like Colter Bean (0.48 ERA in 18 2/3 IP with 23 K).

Update: Peter Abraham is reporting that Sheff will indeed hit the DL today and that Melky will get the call from Columbus. I'm rather discouraged by this news as I think the team is jumping on a hot streak rather than letting Cabrera truly develop into a major-league-ready hitter. That said there's a strong parallel to Robinson Cano's path through the minors.

Cano first hit triple-A at age 21 in his fourth minor league season. He struggled in a half season there (.259/.316/.403 in 216 at-bats), but started the following season on a hot streak in Columbus (.333/.368/.574 in 108 ABs), was called up and handed a starting job and hasn't looked back. Cabrera first hit triple-A at age 20 in his third minor league season. He struggled in a quarter season there (.248/.309/.366 in 101 ABs), but started the following season on a hot streak in Columbus (.385/.430/.566 in 122 ABs), and now, almost exactly a year after Cano, he has been called up to, if Torre is true to his word, start in right field. If he succeeds, he could stay there, pushing Sheffield to DH upon his return. That said, Cabrera remains a year ahead of Cano's schedule (yet another data point behind my belief that he should be left in Columbus this year) and Cano didn't start to hit until his tenth game last year. With Sheffield expected to come off the DL as soon as he's eligible, Melky may not get a chance to stick.

Curiously, of the six games Cabrera played for the Yankees last year, two of them were against the Red Sox. In fact, it was the Trot Nixon single that he played into an inside-the-park home run in Fenway that essentially ended his audition with the big club.

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Comments (371)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-05-09 10:13:18
1.   Sliced Bread
Good stuff as always, Cliff.

re: Melky or a Kevin. I think they should go with the hottest bat, which belongs to Cabrera. Also, since Melky projects to be better than a fourth outfielder, why not get him as much big league experience as possible? I'd love to see him in the lineup tonight (if Sheff can't go), with Phillips at first, and Giambi DH.

I'll happily sign your petition to replace Sturtze with Ramiro Mendoza. Can we get 100,000 signatures by 7pm, and make it happen?

2006-05-09 10:16:59
2.   RichYF
Cliff, if you're willing to go to the stadium tonight, I'll sign a petition saying you should replace Sturtze. How much worse can you be? We'd get 100k sigs for the easily
2006-05-09 10:18:33
3.   JVarghese81
Cliff, I agree with you on the melky/Thompson question and my reasons were pretty much the same. I would rather have him continue to work on his game at AAA without having to deal with yo-yo-ing between NY & Colombus. Not knowing how Torre will use the new guy, I just want to see Melky get solid playing time until a later call up. (I know what Torre said...but I'll believe it when I see it - I still think he'll probably just end up trotting Bubba or Bernie out there)

That being said, if they do call up Kevin, I think they should sit Melky down and tell him the reasons why...I'd hate to see the kid get discouraged by not being called up.

Also, Cliff, why do I have a feeling that if they do replace Sturtze, it will be with Scott Erikson rather than Mendoza...

2006-05-09 10:20:45
4.   Rob Gee
Nice stuff indeed Cliff.

Can you answer this for me: Did we just miss a shot to acquire Choi through waivers? The story goes he was on a rehab assignment in Pawtucket then got activated to only get reassigned but had to pass through waivers first. Do we still fall behind the Sox under that scenario? Did other teams pass up on him too (the Cubs!?)?

2006-05-09 10:25:20
5.   Rob Gee
Sorry, every report I saw said he passed through waivers. Not sure where you're getting your info from.
2006-05-09 10:31:54
6.   Rob Gee
3 If Small doesn't find his magic pixie dust soon, I would be surprised if it wasn't Mendoza in that slot.

I have to hope Erickson is there, like Rasner, if we need an emergency start.

Otherwise, I really do wonder where Bean falls in. Defintely behind Dotel. But if Proctor keeps throwing like that - I just don't see how Colter makes it onto this club unless Sturtze gets released and someone else gets hurt.

The bullpen is not our worry this year unless that worry is Tanyon seeing playing time.

2006-05-09 10:50:58
7.   Sliced Bread
As we're seeing a dramatically different Proctor than we saw last season, maybe we'll see a more mature, Major League ready Melky.

It's unlikely that he'll keep up his torrid rate of hitting against big leaguers Beckett, Schilling, and Wakefield this series, but it's easy to get excited about him.

I don't see how being called up can be a bad thing for Melky. Even if he's not an overnight sensation, at least he'll know he's in the team's plans - also, other clubs that might be interested in him will see how highly he's regarded by the Yanks.

Get Melky into the lineup tonight, Joe, and get him into the roll call, Bleacher Creatures!

PS - if Melky plays right tonight, I'm guessing Bernie gets the start at DH.

PPS - With the damp cool weather in NY today, it feels like October around here!

2006-05-09 10:57:34
8.   Rob Gee
7 Seriously though, how nice would it be if Melky sticks?

Whereas Joe wouldn't use either of the Kevins as a legit 4th option (i.e., he'd fall behind Bernie on the depth chart), Melky might just impress him enough in the next two weeks to become an everyday guy in the OF and bumping Shef to more DH, Bernie to his PH slot (no way he gets cut), and Bubba to parts unknown.

Am I dreaming to even think this? So long as he doesn't flame up and out - let's keep our fingers crossed...

2006-05-09 11:09:27
9.   Cliff Corcoran
6 Erickson isn't starting in Columbus, he's pitching exclusively in relief, and short relief at that (1 1/3 IP per appearance). He's pitching very well, but Smith, who's already gotten the call once, and Bean have been even better.

5 Rob, the more I think about it, the more it makes sense that Choi, who has three years of major league service time under his belt, would have had to have cleared waivers to have been optioned down. That said, I didn't see any references to his passing through waivers on any of the sources I checked, but I believe he would have to have been.

To answer your question on waiver order, the Red Sox can't put a waiver claim on their own player. The waiver order is based on the standings and goes from worst to first in the same league as the club requesting waivers (Royals to White Sox), then worst to first in the other league (Pirates to Mets). If no claims are placed on the player, the original team retains him, thus I suppose you could say the Sox are last in the waiver order on Choi.

So you're boy Cashman has no excuse this time around, though for the life of me I can't figure out why. Carlos Pena isn't hitting a lick in Columbus and I can't see why the Yanks wouldn't jump at the chance to take a piece away from the Sox, like they tried to do with Mirabelli. Frustrating indeed, unless the option/waiver rules have yet another wrinkle I'm unaware of.

2006-05-09 11:29:46
10.   C2Coke
Right on! 1,2. In fact, bring the petition to the Stadium, then there's half of that 100K signatures!
2006-05-09 11:36:47
11.   Cliff Corcoran
Looking at the Clippers' stats, I'm trying to figure out how they've been distributing playing time. They've got Melky and the Kevins in the outfield, but also Mitch Jones, who could play first, but that was to be Eric Duncan's position, but then Carlos Pena came alone, so Duncan has switched back to third I've heard, but Russ Johnson was there tearing up the league. I notice Felix Escalona's playing time at short has declined, are they using Johnson in the middle infield spots? Danny Garcia has second base covered, which is Johnson's best middle infield position (he's really not a shortstop). Has Garcia moved over? Then there's the fact that they have five catchers, three of whom, Hill, Nieves and McDonald seem to be splitting the starting job to some degree.

Meanwhile, here's a waiver wire conundrum for you. If the Yankees claimed Choi, they'd have to pass him through waivers to option him to Columbus, allowing the Red Sox to claim him back, but if the Sox wanted to option him down to Pawtucket, the process could just repeat and keep repeating ad infinitum. Is there something in the waiver or option rules that breaks that cycle at some point? It would seem that at some point one of those teams would be forced to keep him on the 25-man roster, but due more to tranaction fatigue than any part of the waiver rules.

2006-05-09 11:38:37
12.   wsporter
Cliff 9 when you refer to B. Cashman as Rob's boy I imagine you do so with the slightest hint of sarcasm. Yes?

Pena has been disappointing to date. What is even more frustrating is he has taken time away from a very up and down Duncan at first base.

If we claimed Choi I imagine that Pena would have exercised his option to leave and may well have ended up with the Sawx. Would the Yankees view this as a lateral move? If you look at their career numbers they are close although Pena does have about 700 more ab's and is arguably a better defender.

2006-05-09 11:47:38
13.   Cliff Corcoran
12 The Yanks might think it's lateral, but Choi is the superior player. I'd make that trade in an instant.
2006-05-09 11:53:44
14.   Coltre Hughes
I have a great deal of respect for Melky. His big league experience from last year may have lead a less confident player to believe that he was not 'major league material'. However Melky came to spring training and he looked confident, like he belonged. Additionally, he has dominated AAA pitching so far this season. As a shortsighted fan, I'm glad he was called up because I just (selfishly) want to see him play.
2006-05-09 11:58:33
15.   Cliff Corcoran
By the way, if Hee Seop:Red Sox::Andy Phillips:Yankees, Manny Delcarmen:Red Sox::Bean/Smith:Yankees. The mistrust of youth is pervasive:

http://tinyurl.com/mu2kg

Also, for yucks, the latest Soxaholix features a classic bit of trash talk from Yankee fan Marty:

http://tinyurl.com/r5gfr

2006-05-09 11:59:03
16.   Bob Timmermann
Don't you folks know that Doug Mientkiewicz is handy with the leather and a good clubhouse influence? And he hit over .300 once.

Hee-Seop Choi is:
1) a bad fielder
2) has a hole in his swing
3) has trouble with pitchers who weird arm angles
4) isn't Mark Grace/Eric Karros/Jason Phillips/Bryan Myrow

I could give you more of the L.A. media orthodoxy about why Hee-Seop Choi failed in L.A. But it's really enervating.

2006-05-09 12:06:39
17.   wsporter
13 You've made it quite clear that you find Choi the superior player over the past weeks. Why? Not that I disagree or that I'm looking for or making an argument but I don't see it in the numbers. Does Choi have a better lefty power swing? Is he a better situational hitter? Does he have better plate coverage or zone judgment? Do you find him to be a better defensive 1st baseman than Pena? Is he a better teammate or person? Is he kind to animals?

I can't get too excited by the difference I see in the numbers or in seeing them both play. What is it that makes the difference for you?

2006-05-09 12:14:57
18.   Rob Gee
9 This bit was from the Boston Globe, but I remember seeing others around the same time that said similar things.

http://tinyurl.com/m9zjm

Short story: Says he had a minor league option left but because he debuted more than three years ago, he had to pass through waivers. If so, it is surprising the Yanks didn't take a flyer on him, but even more so that the Cubs didn't.

He does have four (!) errors so maybe Cashman couldn't envision a defensive liability at 1B as the back-up behind Giambi. Who knows though...

2006-05-09 12:19:46
19.   Andre
It's my turn to ask the locals - how's the weather in NYC? Do you all think this game will be played tonight? I've got to think that the cold wet weather will be worse for RJ than Beckett, but I guess we won't know until tonight.
2006-05-09 12:35:07
20.   hensley
Re: Choi and waivers, I said this yesterday w/o remembering that I got it from the SOSH board: http://tinyurl.com/hehqg
According to this, he passed through a "procedural waiver" that there is a "gentleman's agreement" not to claim off of. Doesn't make much sense, but better than nothing?
2006-05-09 12:42:01
21.   Cliff Corcoran
17 Choi is a year younger, strikes out less, and unlike Pena hasn't been properly exposed at the major league level. Choi has never been given more than 370 plate appearances in a single season. Pena has surpassed that mark three times, twice taking more than 500 trips to the plate in a single season. I believe we've seen what Pena can do and now that he's 28 I don't think he has any more to offer than what he's already done, which means he's a league-average 1B at best.

On the other hand, I don't think Choi has been allowed to reach his potential (which according to PECOTA could be Ortiz-like) and at age 27 he should be having a break out season right now if only he were getting a chance.

2006-05-09 13:11:47
22.   jonnystrongleg
Excited about this series and the pitching matchups? Wish some of the games were day games, or the weather was warmer, the Yanks struggle in the cold.

PS, this rivalry is certainly intense, but you guys should check out what happened in England this Sunday. Tottenham Hotspur lost out on next year's Champion's League to their most bitter rival Arsenal because 10/17 of their players were violently stricken w/ food poisoning 12 hours before kickoff of their final game! I believe there is a criminal investigation, with Arsenal supporters at the top of the suspect list.

I have spent the last two days contemplating what would have happened if this went down last year during the Yanks/Red Sox final series. Madness and bedlam for sure.

2006-05-09 13:20:08
23.   Rob Gee
I wouldn't be so down on Cabrera, Cliff. We know what the Kevins have and they would not start over Bernie with Torre at the helm.

Plus, Cabrera's already shown he's resilent to bounce back so well from last year. He's being rushed but the alternative for this DL stint would be Bernie playing RF/DH everyday. If he fails he'll get another shot in September then next Spring.

The upside is Melky just might stick.

2006-05-09 13:21:36
24.   Rob Gee
22 Great idea, jonny! Anyone here work in the major NYC hotels?
2006-05-09 13:23:42
25.   Knuckles
22
Woulda been easy...

Bad Guy: Now, youse guys know what ya s'posed to do?
Henchman: Yeah boss, we goes in da restaurant kitchen and put da poison in the chunky white soup.
Bad Guy: And da thin red soup?
Henchman: We leaves it alone.
Bad Guy: Good, now go to it!

2006-05-09 13:23:44
26.   rbj
11
Yes, Dunca has been splitting time between 3rd & 1st (at least he was when the Clippers were in town). What I found interesting was that Nieves caught both games of a night game followed by a day game -- the Clipppers only had two guys listed at catcher & not on the DL (Lance Parrish was DL'ed, Hill was available, but on bullpen duty(?)) The Kevins impressed me more than Melky at the time; personally I'd like to see Melky spend the summer in Columbus, I'd hate for him to get overwhelmed again in the majors, but I'd love to be wrong. I'd like a nice, crisp, 6-0 win by the Yanks.

Right now only Nieves & Hill are listed on the roster

2006-05-09 13:24:00
27.   tommyl
22, Yeah, and Spurs are petitioning to replay the last game. Did you happen to watch the Arsenal game at Highbury (final game in that stadium, which has been their home since 1913)? It was insane, place was shaking and every fan was issued either a white or red shirt based on their seating location so the stadium looked like a giant Arsenal flag. Oh, and Henry scored a hat trick. Doesn't get much better than that 'cept for Yanks v. Sox and of course the match of the year, Barcelona v. Arsenal in Paris next week.
2006-05-09 13:52:46
28.   wsporter
21 Cliff, over their careers Pena has a K rate of 0.297 and Choi has a K rate of 0.286. Technically yes Choi strikes out less. I'll take your answer as Choi "projects" as a better player not that he "is" a better player, although he may well be.

Right now I see them as a wash, if one is superior to the other today the difference may not justify an argument. As to the future, I've always liked Choi and have tended to be dismissive of Pena. It probably goes back to my objection to the way BBA employed Pena as a straw man to tear down Nick Johnson's value.

Ortiz had 1477 ab's before he got to Boston. His last year in MN presaged his monumental advancement as a hitter. So I guess it's fair to say that he had 1,065 ab's to adjust his swing; closer to Choi's position than Pena's obviously. Pena has been sucking wind at Columbus and taking some 1b/DH time away from Duncan. Choi is putting up decent although bizarre numbers (higher OBP than SLG) at Pawtucket according to the MiLB site.

When we picked up Pena, B. Cashman offered that the Yankees were merely "increasing the inventory". In merchandizing there is a simple old saying – "Inventory kills"; I think it may be applicable in baseball. We hitched our wagon to the wrong star on this one.

2006-05-09 13:55:33
29.   Cliff Corcoran
23 Rob, Joe said he'd start whomever got called up. I believe him. There's a third factor at work here that I failed to mention. Thompson always struggles on first exposure to a new level but then hits well the next year. Why not use now to get him that taste he seems to need and then pencil him in for 4th OF in 2007? He can't be much less productive than Bernie/Bubba.
2006-05-09 14:05:10
30.   Rob Gee
29 You don't have to argue with me - they should both be on this team ahead of the other two guys on the OF bench.

That said, I think you've got to reward merit and look for upside. If Melky plays like last year, Thompson will get his shot. But if you start with Thompson and he fails it's tough to go to Melky then. You've cornered yourself in to then trying Reese. Now two guys at Melky's level are hitting the big club even though he's really outperforming them.

Worst case: You get Thompson.
Best case: We've got our 4th OF.

I feel good about that progression.

BTW: Soriano's early numbers also look Cano and Melky-like.

2006-05-09 14:06:14
31.   jonnystrongleg
27 Highbury was rocking. Going nuts every time West Ham scored, not losing steam when Wigan made their push. Pure, cathartic release at the Henry hat trick. Will it be enough to keep him around for a few more years? Sure hope so. 5/17 is huge!

Makes me really appreciate being a Yankee fan. I never have to worry about our best and favorite players; they're not going anywhere (apologies to the Pettitte foundation - the exception that proves the rule?).

2006-05-09 14:13:34
32.   Knuckles
Francona says he used Papelbon in a non-save situation last week because he wanted the Yankees to see him, to scare NY a little bit. Sounds like gamesmanship by Mr. Francoma there. Why would you use a closer that many of the Yanks haven't seen in a non-crucial situation? This only affords a few more of them some familiarity that could possibly come back and bit you in the butt later on.

Sounds more like a lame way for Terry to spin the fact that he had no one else in the bullpen he could trust with a 4 run lead...
http://tinyurl.com/fqlm6

2006-05-09 14:32:36
33.   Benjamin Kabak
Do we know yet if Melky is starting tonight? Trial by fire for the young outfielder, I guess, but it's gotta be better than Bubba/Bernie.
2006-05-09 14:33:37
34.   wsporter
32] Knuckles, sounds like Frankie was sick of answering a question. Given the way the sigmoidoscope seems to come out at the post game newsies I'd say I don't blame him.
2006-05-09 14:39:12
35.   randym77
Hopefully they will get the game in. The worst of it will be passing soon, judging from the radar.

It wasn't supposed to rain at all today, but it is. Just a little.

2006-05-09 14:39:53
36.   Shaun P
33 Benjamin, if you click on the Peter Abraham link in Cliff's main post, and go looking for Mr. Abraham's most recent post, Melky is starting in RF tonight and hitting 9th.

7 Sliced called it - Bernie at DH. Nice.

2006-05-09 14:41:34
37.   Shaun P
36 My compliment is for Sliced, BTW, not Bernie, as I'd rather see Phillips DHing. That said, I hope Bernie does well tonight.
2006-05-09 14:52:00
38.   randym77
We are going to get a look at young Melky tonight...

Johnny Damon CF
Derek Jeter SS
Jason Giambi 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Hideki Matsui LF
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Can