Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The Blue Jays fell well short of their Pythagorean expectations in 2005 and made a number of splashy moves in the offseason, leading many to believe that they had thrust themselves into the thick of the AL East race for 2006. I have to say, I just don't see it.
Part of the reason is that I expect regression from new additions Overbay (who will miss Miller Park), Molina (who had a rather obvious career year in 2005) and Ryan (who's mechanics and disposition scream implosion to me), as well as from the returning members of the Toronto bullpen, all of whom, save perhaps 27-year-old Jason Frasor, pitched over their heads in 2006.
In addition to their normal regression, the relievers will be hurt by the loss of Orlando Hudson's defense, but not nearly as much as the starters, particularly tonight's starter, Gustavo Chacin, whose solid 2005 ERA just didn't jive with his unimpressive peripherals, and, much as I hate to say it, returning ace Roy Halladay, who is the most extreme groundball pitcher in the Toronto rotation. The second most groundball-prone Blue Jay starter is A.J. Burnett, which isn't the greatest news for Toronto fans already coping with the fact that A.J. has as many DL stays as starts thus far this year.
2005 Record: 80-82
2005 Pythagorean Record: 88-74
Manager: John Gibbons
General Manager: J.P. Riccardi
Home Ballpark (2005 Park Factors): Rogers Centre (102/102)
Who's Replacing Whom?
Current Roster
1B Lyle Overbay (L)
2B Aaron Hill (R)
SS Russ Adams (L)
3B Troy Glaus (R)
C Bengie Molina (R)
RF Alexis Rios (R)
CF Vernon Wells (R)
LF Frank Catalanotto (L)
DH Shea Hillenbrand (R)
Bench:
R Reed Johnson (OF)
L Erik Hinske (UT)
S Gregg Zaun (C)
R John McDonald (IF)
Rotation:
R Roy Halladay
R A.J. Burnett
R Josh Towers
L Gustavo Chacin
L Ted Lilly
Bullpen:
L B.J. Ryan
R Justin Speier
L Scott Schoeneweis
R Jason Frasor
R Vinnie Chulk
R Pete Walker
L Scott Downs
Typical Lineup
L Russ Adams (SS)
L Frank Catalanotto (LF)
R Vernon Wells (CF)
R Troy Glaus (3B)
L Lyle Overbay (1B)
R Shea Hillenbrand (DH)
R Bengie Molina (C)
R Alexis Rios (RF)
R Aaron Hill (2B)
Reed Johnson is sure to start against the lefty Johnson tonight while Eric Hinske has been spelling Alexis Rios in right against the occasional righty, much as Gregg Zaun has been doing for Molina behind the plate since returning from the DL. John McDonald is the only Blue Jay hitter who doesn't make regular starts as not even his spectacular fielding can carry his abysmal bat.
Kelly at PUC (personal Unit catcher)
Matsui at DH and thus -
Bernie in LF.
The rest you know.
Let's go Yankees!
Screw RJ's sucky personal catcher, Stinnett. He shouldn't even be on the Yankees.
Tell me about it. No package tonight.
Yea, we'll get to watch the 2-0 loss tomorrow though...lol.
and yes, Sheffield singled to right to RIGHT. :P
That's him all right. Personal catcher and a 5.00 ERA in tow.
Randy's catcher should have nothing to do with it, that's why I'm suspicious. Greg Maddux calls his own games for crying out loud. When you're an ace like he is supposed to be, the catcher should be irrelevant.
Ball is jumping tonight. Could be a long and ugly one.
Ack, 68, just when I was going to agree with you for once. Consider http://www.texasnaacp.org/jasper.htm for a moment.
Nah, he clearly hates all Hispanic people.
Hey, I think it's ridiculous that RJ uses someone besides Posada as well, but throwing around this stuff is a little nuts as well.
On top of that it creates a boy who cried wolf atmosphere. The more people like Simone and Stormer Sports make bullshit claims like this, the less likely real allegations of racism are taken seriously.
I may get a blowout the other way from the looks of things.
Great, back to RJ getting inconsistent and out-of-whack. Guess we're going to hear more about his right shoulder...
I want a Kevin Brown refund for Johnson and his 5.00 ERA!
This going to be another game where he says "I get paid to pitch in October?"
Two things:
1) Making damaging allegations about someone in a public forum without being able to prove them is sometimes called libel.
2) This Yankee team is not a meritocracy. Not as long as Tanyon Sturtze still has an employee ID badge.
I don't think Johnson is hurt, I think he's just become a mediocre pitcher who can throw 120 pitches once a month.
"Apparently, Randy Johnson didn't think his shoulder stiffness was a baseball decision. Johnson was lifted from his start after five innings and 87 pitches, something that has less to do with his shoulder and more to do with his knees. When Johnson's knees are pain-free (or, more likely, pain-reduced) in the effective period of his Synvisc injections, his mechanics are smooth. While I do not know when Johnson had his last series of injections, his mechanics in tonight's game implied that he was due for a new series of Synvisc. If you want a key, watch the chest of his jersey. When he's right, the jersey pops out as he's about to release the ball. When he's not, his delivery is much more of a long arc that stresses -- you guessed it -- the shoulder. Johnson's quick hook was a baseball decision; the Yankees can't afford to stress his arm in this condition if they intend to win. It would be interesting to know when Johnson's last series of injections was, to gauge whether or not the lubrication is having a shorter period of effectiveness."
Compare his slider tonight with the one he had for the dominant 4 innings he had last start. Something is wrong.
Looks like Jesus.
Acts like Judas.
Throws like Mary.
A classic.
Giambi and Johnson, the new Yankees indeed.
Giambi ranged to his right threw his big mass ontop of the ball, recovered, only to throw the ball to "no one in particular," as Singleton said. Johnson was late getting to the bag and Giambi just figured he didn't want to be the last one to hold the ball so he chucked it.
If RJ is hurt, this team is in big, big trouble. In other words, this team is in big, big trouble because Johnson is hurt.
Johnson is illustrating why no one but the Yankees would give him a long term deal.
Clemens, we need you!
???
His Cy Young caliber year in Arizona was his age 40 season. I hear that 41 year old pitchers sometimes decline, and sometimes decline rapidly. And I'm an amateur, you think maybe Cashman could have, perhaps should have, known the same thing? Known it before a 3 year contract extension at 16 per?
1-0 Ottawa with about 8:00 left in the 2nd period
Can't blame Cash for RJ, just have to get the old nogin working and figure out who will replace him in the rotation this year if he fully breaks down.
This is our guy everytime Randy "over the hill" Johnson pitches. These games are either lights out or unbearably hideous.
Not signing Pedro was a huge mistake. Pedro is a pitcher! RJ is a thrower, no stuff, nobrains, no success. Pedro has learned how to win with the stuff he has now. Not to mention he's great in the dugout and with his teammates, the anti-Johnson. Well, maybe Johson can sweep up the sunflower seeds like he did last year. At least earn his keep a little bit.
Hey look, another man on for RJ. Fabulous.
Woulda could shoulda signed Wells.
Woulda coulda shoulda signed Lieber.
Woulda coulda shoulda signed El Duque.
Woulda coulda shoulda fired Cashman.
Well, Cone was a stud, not just crafty.
Hell, I'd take Kenny Rogers right now!
Pitcher on the ropes w/ nothing in the tank. Two men thrown out stealing.
We have the lineup of the '27 Yankees with the pitching staff of the '06 Royals.
Hard to argue on any of those, with the exception of Cashman. I'm sure he didn't have whatever pull he has now when Petey was available. I don't know who was behind the decision to pass on him...
I hear ya! I just don't understand how you keep Lieber, then pay him, then let him go for the cost of Kyle Farnsworth! How does a GM do that?
Wells, Lieber, and Duque haven't done anything to warrent their resingings either. Duque has an era of 7, Wells may be done, and Lieber has an era of 9. How does that make them better than Johnson? Better than Wright/Pavano, but on the other hand, none of those are great options...
Hard to argue with that.
If Torre is who let David Wells out the door then he's a putz. If he let El Duque go, also a putz. However I just cannot understand the Lieber deal. We paid him while he was on IR in hopes he would perform, then he did, and then we let him go for peanuts.
"Wells, Lieber, and Duque haven't done anything to warrent their resingings either."
You mean other than Duque pitching lights out and helping Chicago win every playoff series and the World Series? Kinda like what he did for us in the post season. Yea he's horrible.
And it's not one start, it's been over a year of average to below average pitching from Johnson.
Re: Lieber.
At 6 or 7 mil per, I'll take it.
Is Cashman paying attention to what a strong arm in the OF can do to the opposing offense..?
I'd like to see Proctor start and RJ rest in the pen for a while. He clearly has something wrong with him that an entire off-season didn't cure!
We are talking about the same guy who begged off a World Series start, right? Lieber was a mistake, but he is pitching in the NL now and his numbers aren't that great. I mean, I'd take him over our two big signings that year, don't get me wrong.
El Duque is a walking injury. He has flashes of brilliance, but he can never stay healthy enough to sustain them.
Johnson for Wells/El Duque/Lieber? Give me a break. 172 nailed it.
He's giving them a chance. C'mon, Yanks! Let's see some offense!
Apparently he's learned a curve, and 2 seamer version of his fastball. If that's true, he could have turned a corner.
I wouldn't bet the franchise on him, but I'm cautiously optimistic.
208 Add him to the list of couldas too. Ahh Cash, what a stud GM you are.
At least Jorgie is back in the lineup now, right? =)
The top of the first was fun, but after that you didn't miss anything except a few great catches by Damon.
Which Chacon promptly gave back...
The rsox think schilling and becket are going to win 30 games a piece.
It is disappointing though. I was hoping Randy was going to take the edge off of watching that big mouth Schilling make his comeback of the year.
4 runs; doable the way giambi and arod are.
Reading back through some of the earlier comments in this thread has been, shall I say, interesting . . .
Ouch. There goes the Cap'n's run. Why is Chacon pitching now? Didn't he throw a couple innings over the weekend vs the Twins? Is he being moved to the 'pen?
As long as Torre doesn't try to use a sac bunt with men on base and no outs, that is. Sorry - I had to get a sac bunt comment in here somewhere. ;)
Thanks for the run, Sheff. Now you better hit a 3 run homer with no one on base.
Matsui's in a bit of slump these days, isn't he?
so, is it too early to panic? I know that its definitively not too early to scream and get pissed off...
Not sure what Chacon is doing lately, but if you're going to skip his start, just have him throw a simulated game on the side - don't mess with his head by bringing him in for 1 inning at a freakin' time...
They had an interview with him on YES last weekend. He was so excited to be playing for the Yankees. He said his dad is a long time Yankees fan, and having his son on the team is like a dream come true.
He found out he was going to the majors when the told him to change his clothes. He asked why, and they said, "Dress code is different in the majors."
Yankees get crushed, I start Doug Davis on fantasy and he gives up 9 ER in 2.2 innings, and I bench Sizemore (who was 4-21 against lefties coming into today). Of course, Sizemore hits his first homer of the year in a 15-1 demolishing.
I imagine if one goes month-by-month through the last 10+ years, one would find some down months here and there. Last April's 11-19, August of '98 are the first two to come to my mind.
On a plus note, Barcelona beat Milan today in the Champions League.
268, its like the warming glow you get in hypothermia right before death.
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