This list has some strange entries for sure. Re: Cano. Are "young players" (of the position variety) really more susceptible to injury? I would have thought the opposite. Or maybe the "risky position" is the more important phrase there.

I'm assuming Mussina and Pavano are reds?

I am not much of a stat head at all (although it interests me more and more lately), but how would pitching in Denver affect Chacon's K/BB ratio? Aren't Ks and BBs independent of the effects of Coors Field?

There's an Irish neighorhood in Syracuse, NY called Tipperary Hill which boasts the only traffic light in the country where the green is on top, and the red is on the bottom.

I don't know if Mr. Carroll is applying a Syracuse Irishman's logic to his health report, but he certainly seems to have flipped his Wang-Chacon lights.

I'll chose to be optimistically color-blind to any Yankee red lights in his report, and continue to pray that the bullpen doesn't get 'lit up' like a Christmas tree.

That's a common misconception, Marcus, that the thin air in Coors only effects the flight of the ball off the bat. It also effects the flight of the ball to the plate. Chacon's best pitch is his curve, but in the thin air, curves don't curve nearly as much. You'd think at sea level, with the proper drop on his hook, which he clearly had with the Yanks last year, he'd be able to make more batters miss.

Note to the color blind: stay away from Tipperary Hill, NY.

those innings pitched totals belie the fact that chacon throws about 200 pitches per 6 innings. i wouldn't say his workloads have been all that light, except for 2004 when he was a closer.

[4] tipperary hill is in syracuse.

And Syracuse is in NY 6, what's your point?

As for Chacon's pitches per inning. You would consider Mike Mussina, who has walked just 2.04 men per nine innings over his career, an efficient pitcher, yes? Well Moose's career pitches per inning are 3.76. Chacon's are 3.80. That's a difference of eight piches over 200 innings. Not a meaningful difference.

7

3.76 pitches per inning? Or per batter?

oh, i didn't have one. i live in syracuse, that's all. :)

i wasn't trying to be argumentative, and in fact i didn't look anything up before i made my hyperbolic claim. but it seemed like every time i saw him as a rockie, he was regularly having 45-pitch innings and 140 pitch outings. that's probably just a small sample size though. i did remember admiring his fortitude, if not his talent.

I was a little disappointed that the green lights didn't get an explanation.

So many reds in there. Yikes.

Cliff,

As you pointed out, Chacon seemed to find another gear down the stretch last season, culminating in his strong postseason start v the Angels.
While he hasn't made a Mariano Rivera'esqe reinvention breakthrough, is it possible that Chacon's becoming a different pitcher than the one his projections are based on?

I'm no expert, but Chacon's delivery makes him look like a durable pitcher to me.

Also, how accurate have Carroll's health reports been in the past?

Sigh, I rushed that one.

15.4 P/IP for Moose
16.9 P/IP for Chacon

A difference of 300 pitches over 200 innings, or (rounding to a rough mid-point of 16 P/IP) 18.75 "hidden innings" pitched by Chacon.

My bad, and apologies to Vishal.

So Chacon's 164 1/3 IP in '05 were actually more like 173 2/3 using our 16 P/IP standard. 200 innings would still be a 15 percent increase. Not insignificant.

The song actually goes "You don't have to put out the red light..."

Carry on.

11 A curveballer getting out of Colorado should almost automatically turn into a different pitcher, though as the above posts points out, his peripheral stats don't show that happening, despite radical improvements in his results.

Also, Will is constantly tweaking his system to increase accuracy. The THRs, if I can speak for him, are like any other projection system, there's a scientific method there, but it takes time to work out the kinks. With that in mind, each year should be more acurated than the last, but ultimately it's still trying to predict the future, which is never going to reach 100 percent accuracy.

13 Fixed.

13 15

Actually, it's...

You don't have to put on the red light.

The idea being that a prostitute uses a red light to indicate she's open for business in Amsterdam. Thus... "I love you and will take care of you, so don't turn on the light any more -- you're retired." :-D

I thought so, but he could also mean "put out" like you put out a sign, put out the red light for people to see it. A quick web search reveals both versions. Still at work, I can't check the recording (though I'm sure all Sting says in his faux Jamacian/sounds Austrian english accent is "you don haf to poot ah tha red liiiii").

Well, I know it's definitely "put" and not "turn". Your prepositions may vary.

Agreed. Tell me once, need not tell me again "turn"'s the wrong way.

Marc Normandin evaulated how the THR system did last year, but its a BP premium piece (sorry, non-subscribers):

http://tinyurl.com/l92hf

To perhaps over-simplify Marc's conclusions - or just re-state what Cliff said - the system is getting better with each passing year.

Marcus, Moose and Pavano are both reds.

FYI, here are the '03-'05 THR breakdowns for the Yanks:

2003:
1 red (Mo)
4 yellow (Bernie, Nick Johnson, Pettitte, Wells)
11 (!) green (DJ, Soriano, Giambi, 'Zilla, Posada, Ventura, Mondesi, Zeile, Moose, Clemens, Weaver)

(article available to anyone at http://tinyurl.com/z8yzj)

2004:
3 reds (Giambi, Bernie, Brown)
8 yellows (Lofton, DJ, Sheff, Posada, Vazquez, Contreras, Leiber, Mo)
4 greens (A-Rod, Enrique Wilson, 'Zilla, Moose)

2005:
5 reds (Tino, Giambi, Bernie, Brown, Wright)
6 yellows (Posada, Womack, Sheff, Unit, Moose, Mo)
4 greens (DJ, A-Rod, 'Zilla, and Pavano)

(article available to anyone at http://tinyurl.com/jfs2w)

I know the system has changed, so I'm curious as to how the '06 system would make these past 3 years look. Maybe its just coincidence, but I couldn't help noticing that the last time the Yanks had very few injury risks (2003) is also the last time they made it to the Serious (2003).

'06 totals:

8 red
3 yellow
3 green

*with Wang listed as yellow, not green

Again, perhaps pure co-inky-dink, but this is the 3rd consecutive year that the Yanks have 11 guys at either yellow or red. Not a good trend, methinks.

Giambi going from green in 03 to red in 04 certainly makes the system look good. At the same time, Pavano being green in 05 is a bit embarassing. That said, can't get 'em all right. Good stuff Shaun.

I have mixed feelings about those team health reports. I like Will Carroll and his work, but it seems to me that those colors don't mean much. Fine, Cano is young and plays a demanding position...but that warrants a RED light?! If that's the case, Carl Pavano's light should have a wavelength too long to be detectable to the human eye. Also, sometimes players get a red or yellow light without any notable health issues. Regarding Russ Ortiz: "High walk rates trigger a THR alert for possible elbow problems, but Ortiz has always had control problems. Ortiz probably isn't hurt, he's just bad." Carlos Lee gets a yellow and he played all 162 games last year.

I don't know, I like the reporting aspect, I guess the color coding is just strange to me.

I think Cliff is getting ready to tell me "Don't comment. Don't comment. Don't comment on that headline again."

The name looked familiar. But it was the rock songs for headlines that sealed the deal. Cliff, did you write for a certain weekly college rag?

Anyone that endorses Pecota immediately loses all credibility with me.
This list looks like a lot of opinion and conjecture given an aura of actual analysis that it simply doesn't have.
The Cano remark alone is silly enough, especially when compared to the 2B "analysis" of the Texas Rangers: 2 green inclduing a "young 2B" and D'Angelo Jimenez. I'm a D'Angelo fan, but there's no way Cano gets a yellow if Jimenez gets a green

Its fairly easy to say:
This guys getting old and he's not thin...
This guy has been injured before....
This guy does not work out much...

Are these projections based on more then these 3 items? As Cano is very young, yet still 'high risk', why isn't every 2nd baseman yellow/red?. Isn't SS just as demanding? Aren't pitchers (an even 3rd basemen) more likely to get hit with balls?
I'm not sure why 2nd basemen are high risk... other then guys sliding in to them.

Could they have 'insider' info?

A quick OT post: While everyone is getting amped about the upcoming campaign, Newsday has a little trivia quiz on the 2005 season, found here:

http://tinyurl.com/k9msh

(in the bottom right sidebar)

According to the main article, The Unit sounds like he's ready to go — grazing Damon and giving Jetes a few brushbacks in BP.

Six more weeks 'till they count. I can't wait!

25 You've finally tracked me down. So now that you know I'm me, who are you? Drop a line to my email, which is linked on the sidebar.

The NYT says:
[...] the pitcher who made the best impression [at an early spring training bp] was starter Phil Hughes, a 19-year-old right-hander who went 9-1 at two minor league stops last season. "I haven't seen a young arm like that since Mariano, I would say," Jorge Posada said referring to Mariano Rivera.

Woo-hoo.

Rilke, great news on Hughes as he walks along the sun drenched roads of Tampa. Would have loved to see the look on A-Rods face. "Who the hell is this guy" ala Butch Casady and the Sundance Kid.

BBA downplayed Hughes's fastball and employed that as their reason for devaluing him as a prospect league wide. If his fastball really is a 95 - 96 mph gasser with movement I wonder what new reason they'll make up to relegate him to the middle of the pack.

Not to beat the dead horse on Cano's injury risk. How is Rickie Weeks at Green when he's coming off of surgert for a torn thumb ligament? I know that this stuff isn't an exact science but Carroll should at least display some consistency.