Rob Gee's going to go nuts!

I feel like there have to be other statistics (ERA? K/9? WHIP?) that differentiate Rivera from journeyman closers while there are offensive statistics that usually show Varitek or Pudge beating Posada.

Also, isn't there an abundance of younger catching on the Indians? Like they had two before Stoppach?

The thing that you gloss over with Rivera is his amazing consistency. For every Todd Jones who racks up a surprising 30+ save season, there is a Danny Kolb that is a total bust. Rivera, year in and year out, has been one of the top 3 relievers EVERY YEAR. Try and find any reliever with a track record like that.

Hopefully Tony Pena (who couldn't hit but sure could field his position) will also take a lead teaching role asssuming there's someone to teach!

That said, a few days back I did the research regarding what top catching prospects are out there, and to be had for the price of Eric Duncan (our best chip right now but reasonable considering we'd probably take on a prospect at similar development/ceiling) I used the Baseball America top ten lists for each organization (http://tinyurl.com/aop93) within which there's usually a steep drop-off and so even slimmmer pickings at No. 11 and down.

Not surprisingly, there isn't much, but some decent options:

1) One of the Dodgers duo Cliff mentions

2) The Braves have two guys:
a) Brian McCann (who's their starter this year): http://tinyurl.com/epjmg
b) Jarrod Saltalamacchia (who has a much higher ceiling): http://tinyurl.com/zhjuc

3) Depending on how their Japanese import goes, the Mariners have:
- Jeff Clement: http://tinyurl.com/n9z59

4) Indians, with V. Martinez well situated:
- Kelly Shoppach: http://tinyurl.com/gkbe3

From that list, Jarrod Saltalamacchia projects as the highest ceiling but may not be ready even next year.

Less likely as no clear replacement in their organization or other factors:
- Miguel Monterro, D-backs (http://tinyurl.com/rm9v7)
- Chris Iannetta, Rockies(http://tinyurl.com/lp5mn)
- Jason Jaramillo, Phillies (http://tinyurl.com/ecg4z)
- Jeff Mathis, Angels(http://tinyurl.com/hlwrv)
- George Kottaras, Padres (Piazza heir)
- Brandon Snyder, Orioles (not to us)
- Kurt Suzuki, A's (Kendall heir)

Others:
- Neil Walker, Pirates (no way they're trading as from the area and high ceiling equals seat filler)

There's not much, but you better believe that the price will only go up if Jorge goes down. We can pray that Duncan starts strong to at least keep that option tenable.

How easy has it been to replace the vintage Stanton/Nelson combination? Karsay, Hammond, Quantrill and Heredia have all been less than stellar. Rivera has been lightning in a bottle for 10 years. You are correct about Posada been difficult to replace but just look at the problems the Braves had replacing Smoltz as closer last year. It ain't easy.

OT: Ken Arneson at Catfish Stew has a cool post on possible A's lineups based on PECOTA projections and some PERL script. I'm not sure how much work it would be to run the Yankees but it would be awfully cool to see.

Chris Chambliss, Damaso Garcia, and Paul Mirabella for Rick Cerone, Tom Underwood and Ted Wilborn. There's always a way to fill a hole when it happens.

Good work, Cliff.
Indeed, Jorge will be very difficult to replace when the time comes.
To weigh the popular Posada's value against the revered Rivera's is a bold move, but I think you presented a strong case on the catcher's behalf (without diminishing Mo's value).
Rivera's arm, and Posada's switch-hitting bat have provided crucial advantages for the Yanks for many years.

Who can replace Posada? That's one of the $5.5 million dollar questions for Cashman (or however much they're paying him over the next few years).

Clearly, Kelly Stinnett is not the longterm plan.

Having two young catchers at their disposal, the Dodgers can set a very high price for the hot commodity of backup catcher. Unfortunately, the Yanks will be scrambling with the rest of the league.

Meanwhile, this is from the Yankees blog on the Bergen Record's website today:

More on coach Tony Pena's elaborate (or sadistic) catching drills: At five-second intervals, he sends three pop-ups in the air -- and the catcher has to grab all three.

Jorge Posada did it, making a scrambling, diving, tumbling play to snare the third, and received a huge ovation from the 1,000 people gathered to watch practice at Legends Field.

I don't disagree with your central point, Cliff -- a good catcher is the hardest spot to fill on your roster. However, I don't think this is an "apples to apples" comparison.

Basically you're judging a catcher by the standard RCAP > 15 = good season. Then you're judging relievers by the standard Saves > 30 = a good season. The first number is a good, objective measure of the position. The second isn't because it's much easier to rack up 30 saves for the Yankees than it is to rack up 30 saves for KC. Basically, if you can't rack up 30 saves on a > .500 team as the full-time closer, you pretty much suck at your job.

I'm not sure what the proper closer metric is, but I would suggest that it's more likely something like Save%>85 or something similar. Mariano is a rarity...to wit, here are some lifetime save% numbers of top career relievers with total career saves:

Keith Foulke 84.4% (190)
Todd Jones 79.0% (226)
Armando Benitez 85.9% (263)
Billy Wagner 86.3% (284)
Troy Percival 85.9% (324)
Mariano Rivera 87.9% (374)

Mariano just posted a 91% season at age 35, in a career with 374 saves...that's further out from the curve than you're giving it credit for. Forget the post-season numbers which make for a very nice frosting. :-)

One bit Cliff left out (in the sweet comparison): We know well the decline for catchers, and can PREDICT/PREVENT it to some degree. Jorge can be saved if there's a competent alternative on the bench. Further - he's a great hitter to have on the bench for those days. The lack of a decent alternative should be reason to fire CASH-man enough if we come up a game or two short. That's a difference maker - both the games Stinnett starts and the lack of bats off the bench.

And for all of you that deal with Haters, be sure to ram down their throats that the Yanks are great attendance boosters on the road. Tickets went on sale this morning at 7:30am down here in Philly. By 8:30am, the Yankee series (on M, TU, W nights, no less) was sold out - even standing room only. One check on stubhub shows tickets going for at minimum 300% increase over face value. At those costs, I can get just as decent seats (150 -200% markup) and save cash making my way to the Bronx.

Forgot to mention in #3 that the reason that the Dodgers (1st or 3rd), Indians (3rd), and Braves (1st) make good trading partners for Duncan is because they have holes to fill at the major league level that match up.

Do it CASH-man - doooit! NOW!

Joejoejoe, I've actually been having Ken run some Yankee line-ups through that script. I'll have a post about it up tomorrow.

As for the first half of your comment, Hammond was actually very good, but got put in Torre's doghouse because of one bad game against the Red Sox. Karsay and Quantrill had their arms fall off once put on the Torre "my guy" pitching plan (see my old "Lesson of Stevie Hearsay" post under Suggested Reading on the sidebar). While all of this was going on, the Angels put together one of the best bullpens in the league from spare parts. A similar thing could be said of the Indians' pen from last year. The key appears to be finding guys like Sturtze who can be converted to useful short releivers (and not pitching their arms off after you do), and taking fliers on guys like Dotel coming off of injury. That and a fair share of minor league vets who never got a shot, like, oh, i don't know, Colter Bean?

Sabernar, I absolutley agree, Rivera sits above everyone else, but my point is that, the gap between, say, Rivera and the sixth best closer in the majors isn't nearly as big the gap between the first and sixth best catcher in the majors. Here's a fun game. Make two lists of active players, one of reliable closers (Mo, KRod, Wagner, Nathan, Street) and one of productive catchers (Victor Martinez, Mauer, Posada, Varitek, Pudge), alternate adding one name to each list and see where you get stuck. As for Danny Kolb you knew was going to wash out because of his miniscule K-rate.

Finally, Levy2020, the Indians have the best catcher in baseball in Victor Martinez. Kelly Shoppach will be 26 in April. After that, their cupboard is as bare as the rest, as Rob Gee's digging shows. As for differentiating Mo from your typical closer, yes absolutely, he's a cut above as I've now said many times in the above post and this comment. I am not in any way trying to diminish Rivera's greatness as much as I'm trying to expose the degree to which even we Yankee fans tend to overlook the tremendous advantage the team has gained by having Posada behind the plate. The Rivera comparison was more any entry point for that discussion than my central point.

As for Posada vs. Varitek & Pudge:

Career EQA:

Posada - .297
Pudge - .285
Varitek - .279

Career OPS+:

Posada - 121
Pudge - 115
Varitek - 107

Three best WARP3 totals since 2000:

Posada - 10.9, 10.4, 8.8
Pudge - 8.6, 8.3, 8.1
Varitek - 8.4, 8.1, 7.3

Varitek had a better age 33 season than Jorge in 2005 and might be his equal at this stage of their careers, but overall it's not close. Rodriguez is Jorge's closest competition, but he posted a dreadful .290 OBP last year, pushing him below league average with a 94 OPS+. Rodriguez's career length and defensive reputation push him ahead of Jorge in the big picture, but Jorge's been the better catcher this century.

I should add that Count Zero is very much correct is stating that my saves-to-RCAP comparison is not apples-to-apples, as saves are not a true indication of a pitchers' quality, but ultimately, all the Yankees have asked Rivera to do over the past nine seasons is record saves, almost exclusivly one-inning saves during the regular season. As the Count says himself: "if you can't rack up 30 saves on a > .500 team as the full-time closer, you pretty much suck at your job." That more or less proves my point. Again, not that Rivera isn't the best possible closer, just that the best possible closer isn't as big of a difference maker as the best possible catcher.

Great work again Cliff. Jorge gets discounted by most of the league (probably because of his defense - but even that is league average, no?) but it's good to see his offense clearly outpaces everyone but Piazza. Too bad we didn't give him an earlier shot - he couldve been a (HOF) contender.

Last rant today:
The latest BA rankings (http://tinyurl.com/gd75n) show Duncan ahead of Andre Ethier. Who's that you say? The "stud" the A's traded to LAD for MIL-ton. Shows MB was there for the taking. Again, we'll revisit this bit of history at the break...if I don't stab my eyes with a fork first.

I wrote a bit about the catching situation a few weeks ago:

http://tinylink.com/?KrEIRDi1Vs

I think Shoppach is the guy to go after, he's great with pitchers and is a very good lcubhouse guy. He's ready to go, so he could come up after the All-Star break and catch maybe 40 games to rest Posada for October.

Of course they'd have to get him from the Indians first, which won't be easy.

Rob Gee,

Colletti, as the Dodgers virgin GM, probably would have been hesitant to do business with the big bad Yanks this winter for Milton, Navarro, etc.

If he wasn't blatently establishing the Pacific Red Sox, he was more comfortable and inclined to do business with his contacts in the Bay Area, and work the free agent market.

I think you underestimate how difficult it is for the Yanks to not get fleeced on the trade market.

Milton was probably dismissed by the Yanks (see Torre) on his reputation alone, but I imagine any Dodger discussion with the Yanks with respect to Milton would have started with Wang or Cano, and you should be glad NY wouldn't part with either of them.

Let the Milton and Navarro thing go, and keep the eating utensils away from your eyes.

This is a discussion on Jorge, not Bradley, Damon, ARod or anything else, lets keep it there...

While it wouldn't surprise me to see Cashman trade for Schoppach, I bet the price would be a lot lot higher than just Duncan. I am sure, like most AL teams, the Indians would be loathe to trade the Yanks a player who would make immediate impact and greatly save their team for prospects...Just seems to be the way it goes these days...

What I strongly suspect to happen is that they will pull another Girardi type move, get a middle of the road catcher to use up some time and see what we have in the minors, perhaps getting/drafting a low level guy to be ready by the end. Just a hunch.

And as for Jorge getting rest, yeah, we have all heard that tune before, but it ain't happening. Torre is so afraid to use his second catcher in a game, and so used to playing the same guys over and over, and so scared of the bench, that even on the rare day Jorge gets a day off, he usually pinch hits...

See, I was all ready to sit back and enjoy the view for the rest of the day. And you, YOU, Sliced, have to go and ruin things.

1) Don't read minds, read statements. All the public statements from Yankeeland were that they were staying away from Bradley because of his attitude. My only point all along: The price of MIL-ton was well-below market value for a 27 y.o. starting CF with legit offensive and defensive numbers on a one-year 3mil contract. That is fact and that I will not, er can not, let go (unless he's maimed in a horrible and disfiguring accident). But zany conspiracy theories are best left to wild imagingation for they do not compete with Truth on the battle field of good vs. evil baseball analysis.

2) Navarro is a completely separate issue. That was a HUGE duckup for our organization and I blame CASH-man. Now said CASH-man could still redeem himself by acquiring a competent understudy for Posada - and the sooner the better. Today's blog and comments reflect the limited options there and my view is those options will only get more limited as time passes or injuries occur or prospects do not meet expectations. Whereas the Navarro duckup could be shifted (in theory only) to Tampa, the current hole falls squarely on Bossman CASH-man.

Snark: How many teams were there in 1887? And was the quality variance comparable to today?

As much as I would have liked the Yankees to acquire Bradley, if it meant Yankees had to pay Duncan for that acquisition, the bets are off. I agree with the OPP signing of Damon in this specific case, not just the total number of years.

Duncan is only 20, was younger for the competition in AA. If he were not rushed, he would have ranked much higher. In my opinion, not the guy I would like to give up for Milton Bradley. Not for his make-up, but his health is a big question mark.

I dont really believe when it comes to Yankee prospects, much reliable information could be gleaned from overall prospect rankings. I am pretty sure Wang was not ranked high in any prospect rankings, but he has contributed quite significantly to the Yankees campaign thus far, and much more than much better "prospects".

That said, I agree that trading Navarro in the Johnson deal was the height of stupidity. And it would not be very wise to trade Duncan now, unless it is a Jeff Mathis type of a guy, with the thinness of the Yankee system, he is untradable. Yankees would need to have young, cheap position fillers, and if Duncan can get his bat to be that of an above average first baseman, he should be held on to.

There were eight teams in the NL in 1887, just as there were in 1957. As for the variance of quality, I believe the playing field is more level now than in those frontier days, but I don't have the means of checking my source for that assumption at this particular moment.

A note on a potential Duncan-for-Shoppach trade. Regardless of Shoppach's potential or lack thereof, the Indians are overstocked with 1B prospects, and just picked up Marte as their future 3B, but have nothing behind Martinez and Shoppach in terms of mL catching. That said, Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro quickly emerging as one of the best in the game (see my essay in the upcoming Baseball Prospectus 2006). I wouldn't put it past him to get a chip like Duncan when the getting's good then flip one of his many corner IF prospects for something else, much like Theo did with Marte.

ENOUGH ABOUT FRIGGIN MILTON ALREADY! GIVE IT UP! JEEZ! 99% of the people here don't give a rat's ass about how much you (Rob Gee) want to have his babies, so just give it up already!

sorry to go off topic, but anyone see this piece about where certain franchises rank at certain positions. Fun stuff. Turns out the Yankees center fielders are as good as everyone thinks:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-all-time-all-franchise-all-star-team

Also, regarding Shoppach for Duncan. How is this even a possibility? Shoppach essentially was just traded for Bard and Riske. How much value does this guy really have? The Yanks would never trade Duncan in a million years for Shoppach.

And the John Sickels ranking of Cleveland Indians farm system has Marte as their top, and a grade A prospect.

I know the Sox had to overpay for their CF, depending on how Crisp does and how Marte turns out, it could be a few interesting years, and might be the biggest yardstick to judge Theo and Co.

"Zany theories," Geeman? "Truth on the battlefield of good vs. evil baseball analysis?"

This lecture from you, YOU, who pines for somebody like Milton Bradley to be on Joe Torre's Yankees? Now, that's living in fantasyland.

And you advise me to "read statements, not minds"? I suggest you read Cashman's repeated statements this winter that EVERY trade discussion during his search for a center fielder started with a demand for Cano or Wang.

Nobody is suggesting there's a conspiracy against the Yankees on the trade market, but anybody who believes the Yanks are quoted the same prices as other teams doesn't know which way the wind is blowing, and I suspect you're smarter than that, Geeman.

22

Actually, to be fair, I should make it a test case for Schuerholz as well, depending on how Renteria does.

sabernar -

But how do you really feel?

Even as I advocated it in the past - there's no need to fixate on Shoppach. Cliff mentioned Navarro and Martin - they'd work esp. since the the Dodgers have needs at 1B and 3B. There's also:

2) McCann and Saltalamacchia (Braves need a 1B)

This one's though: one is ML-ready the other has a much higher ceiling (and is now ranked at their top prospect).

3) J.Clement - though the Mariners are locked up at 1b and 3b for dollars and donuts.

See, I'm okay if CASH-man just does his damn job and picks up something and soon. If he's his consistent average self - it won't be great but it won't be horrible either. Shoppach and McCann fall nicely there. Martin and Saltalamacchia would be super but Stinnett is still with us all of this year. Navarro would cause me to light myself on fire.

Sliced, Rob Gee: Flame off.

I don't know about Sliced, but I'm no flamer.

It's all in good fun on this end (and I'm fine with the abuse) - hopefully the same is said for all.

Shoot, can't we have some games already?

Just trying to nip things in the bud is all. Good rule of thumb: attack the message all you want, but lay off the messenger (16, 20, 23).

Sorry for the snarky response, Rob Gee. No flames here, just the occasional cigar smoke.
For what it's worth, I enjoy reading your comments here.
I Bronx-banter in peace.

Aww, group hug everybody? Maybe a "Whoa, Bundy!"

Yes, yes the folly of ad hominen - that's what drove me nuts about MIL-ton in the first place. And I still am!

Hey, and how do you do the nifty "link to other comment thingy"? The bold I found --- by accident.

Word. Group hug.

To link to another comment put the number in in brackets like this [#].

I always assumed it was understood that Mariano's playoff successes separated him from the pack and ensure his spot in the Hall of Fame.

I always assumed it was understood that Mariano's playoff successes separated him from the pack and ensure his spot in the Hall of Fame.

I always assumed it was understood that Mariano's playoff successes separated him from the pack and ensure his spot in the Hall of Fame.

Actually, Rivera's been above and beyond during the regular season as well. Consistancy, as sabernar pointed out 2 is part of it, but so is his career 2.33 ERA against a league average of 4.60 (career 197 ERA+!). By way of comparison, Pedro Martinez's career ERA+, which leads all pitchers with a minimum 1000 IP, is 166. Mo's at 806 2/3 IP. Here are the ERA+ figures for some of the most comparable closers:

Hoffman - 146
Wetteland - 148
Henke - 156
Nenn - 138
Wagner - 180

Big ups to Wagner, who is a year and a half younger than Mo, spent the past six years in extreme hitters parks and is moving to piching friendly Shea. I've always thought of Rivera and Hoffman as the two premier closers of their era, an end-game answer to Pedro and Unit (who have a nice habit of switching leagues at the same time to maintain balance), but clearly Wagner is the superior NL rep. Still, Rivera's clearly the man in the regular season, and when you factor in his 0.81 ERA in 111 2/3 postseason innings, he's flat out untouchab