This trade, if it goes on, perhaps makes the Red Sox better for this year than they are currently constituted (but NOT better than last year). However, if Marte is the prospect that he is said to be, then this makes Indians sick for the next 5-6 years. Hafner, Peralta, Sizemore, Marte, Martinez, Broussard, well, now that is a core.

Although I welcome the sight of Alex Gonzalez, unless Torre finds a Jeff Weaver moment.

First of all, if the Red Sox tab Alex Gonzalez (either one of them) as the solution to their SS problems, that's good news for the Yankees.

Secondly, I don't know why the Indians would want to part with Crisp. They must be convinced that Marte's the real deal. It's true that the Tribe has a few OF prospects on the way and will need a real 3B to replace Boone as soon as 2007, if not before, but, as you say, Crisp is young, cheap, and really came into his own on both sides of the ball last year.

The question for me regarding Crisp as the Sox CF is his defense. Crisp has a career 93 Rate in CF. He made a leap to above average last year, but only after switching to left.

Gonzalez meanwhile (the ex-Marlin according to the Herald), is also terrible defensively (94 career rate) and a miserable offensive performer (career 2.45/.292/.391 - .238 EQA).

If the Phillies deal comes off, however, the final tally for Cleveland would be:

Jason Michaels replaces Coco Crisp
Guillermo Mota replaces Arthur Rhodes (or Rafael Betancourt)
Ande Marte is added to their impressive group of prospects.

Damn. Mark Shapiro is a shark.

the biggest winner is this deal is Mark Shapiro who in my view is on the level of Beane at this point. He trades away Betancourt for Michaels? How does that happen? So he fills the left-field hole opened up by Crisp's departure with a player possibly better than him, and also nets one of the best prospects in the game. Sam, you're right, the Indians' line-up is going to be sick for a while.

Sam, I agree with you re: CF, but Alex Cora would actually be better than Gonzalez for as SS (which says a lot about Gonzalez).

Meanwhile, I also agree with you about the Indian's future, but Ben Broussard won't be a part of it, because he's not any good.

Sam,

True enough about the Tribe. Dream on about the Sox.

Crisp, although not a very good player at the time, was a major league regular at the age of 23. Guys who are regulars in the majors at that age almost always become very good players. At 24, he was a good player; at 25, he was a very good player, better than the guy he replaces. Crisp's road OPS was over 100 points higher than Damon's last year. When you consider the cost of Crisp: likely $20 M over the next four years plus the $12 M of Rentaria's contract in the cost of Marte, the age 26-29 years of Crisp's career will cost the Sox $20 M less than the 32-35 years of Damon's would have, had they matched the Yanks offer. The Sox have just made their very best move of the off-season.

As for Gonzalez, this is not an error of Womackian proportions in that, I assume, it's a one year deal and, unlike Womack, the guy can at least field.

The 2006 Sox should be a better team than the one that won 95 games last year, although winning that many games will be difficult in a tougher division with the improved Jays and improving Devil Rays.

The Sox lineup has improved from top to bottom, to wit:

Crisp for Damon
Loretta for Renteria
Papi
Manny
Varitek, who like Posada, is a year older and will likely see some drop in production.
Nixon, who pretty much lost the second half of last season to injury
Lowell for Millar. Whatever Lowell is, he can't be worse
Youkilis for Mueller, the only possible downgrade, though like others, I'm high on the Jewish Greek God who Shandler projects at .850. If Shandler is right, Youk is an upgrade from Mueller
Gonzalez/Pedroia for Bellhorn.

The defense is improved significantly at every infield position.

Beckett has been added to the rotation, probably replacing Wells.
Schilling, whatever he is, can only be better
Papelbon likely replaces Arroyo
Foulke, whatever he is, can only be better

Matt Mantei, Alan Embree, 37 good innings of Mike Myers and a cast of thousands have been replaced by Seanez, Taveras, Di Nardo, DelCarmen, and possibly Hansen and even Lester by midseason.

Not only is this team better than last year, they are better IN EACH AND EVERY POSITION where they have made a change. The only possible downgrade is in the age and decline of Jason Varitek.

This is not a great team, but it is better than the one that won 95 games last year, mostly on the huge bats of two guys.

How is Papelbon replacing Arroyo? As a starter? Arroyo re-signed for 3 years.

Debris, here goes:

Crisp ~= Damon offensively and defensively.
Loretta > Bellhorn/Graff (but it could go wither way, and may not be much of an upgrade)
Varitek/Flaherty Millar (assuming 1B)
Lowell Manny = Manny.
Ortiz <= Ortiz (career year 2005).
Alex Gonzalez (84 OPS+) < Renteria (91 OPS+)
Nixon < Nixon (declining SLG, OPS+, OBP everything).

The pitching can only improve, so can the bullpen. But offense is most likely worse.

Cliff, sorry Broussard was a bad inclusion. Shapiro will spend no time in getting rid of him for a better replacement.

7

Should read:

Crisp ~= Damon offensively and defensively.

Loretta > Bellhorn/Graff (but it could go either way, and may not be much of an upgrade)

Lowell Millar (assuming 1B).

Varitek/Flaherty < Varitek/Mirabelli.

Manny = Manny.

Ortiz <= Ortiz (career year 2005).

Alex Gonzalez (84 OPS+) < Renteria (91 OPS+)

Nixon < Nixon (declining SLG, OPS+, OBP everything).

I officially suck.

Lowell < Buell.

"The pitching can only improve, so can the bullpen. But offense is most likely worse."

I remember us Yankee fans saying that last off-season, only to find out that as pitchers get older they tend to decline, and relievers can underperform even our lowest expectations. Needless to say, I'm not optimistic (for Sox fans) about that Wake, Wells and Schilling, or Foulke, or Julian Psycho Killer.

8 should read

Crisp ~= Damon offensively and defensively.

Youkilis > Millar (assuming 1B).

Loretta > Bellhorn/Graff (but it could go either way, and may not be much of an upgrade)

Lowell < Buell (Mueller, I mean).

Varitek/Flaherty < Varitek/Mirabelli.

Manny = Manny.

Ortiz <= Ortiz (career year 2005).

Alex Gonzalez (84 OPS+) < Renteria (91 OPS+)

Nixon < Nixon (declining SLG, OPS+, OBP everything).

Sam,

Don't know your formula for Damon - Crisp, but assume you're pointing to a serious upgrade.

You don't state any formula for Lowell - Millar, but this is lateral at worst.

I would agree with you behind the dish if the back up is Flaherty. This is an upgrade if Shoppach.

Manny actually hit in bad luck last year.

I would agree about Ortiz, though the same holds true for A-rod. While he's had similar seasons in the past, he never had Yankee Stadium punishing him in the past.

I don't love Gonzalez, but his slight offensive downgrade is more than compensated by the facts that he'll be hitting ninth to Renteria's second and the huge defensive upgrade.

You would be right about Nixon except that his decline last year was due not do age but to an oblique injury that destroyed the second half of last year. Nixon should be better in 06 than in 05 assuming he can stay healthy. I wouldn't bet the ranch on that. Right field is the most likely spot that the Sox will be looking for help come June.

I agree with Andrew Zimbalist's Op-Ed about the new stadium. I don't think that any city will ever get a better deal on a stadium that what the Yankees are giving the Bronx and NYC. If they don't take this deal, the Yankees would be more than justified in moving to another city. It must have killed the NY Times editors to publish Zimbalist's Op-Ed. Ha.

Crisp is a nice aquisition for the Red Sox. They will now be able to compete with the Blue Jays for second place in the division.

Nick,

Wells is likely gone.
Schilling can only be better.
Wakefield is just coming into his prime. Knuckleballers mature at 40.
Papelbon, Clement, Beckett, and Arroyo are not exactly old.

You want old:
Mussina
Johnson

You want infirm:
Mussina
Wright
Pavano
Wang

Well, if this does happen Youkilis is likely to be playing 3B in 2007, and Lowell will hopefully be traded. This would mean the Red Sox would have room for Derrek Lee and the payroll flexibility to overpay him.

Foulke only has about a 50/50 chance of getting his option vested, Lowell's $8 million will be gone if he performs (half of that $8 million will be gone if he doesn't perform). Crisp would cost about $9 million less than Damon, Hansen $7 million less than Foulke. Papelbon 9$ million less than Clement, Lester 8$ million less than Wells and Pedroia only about a million less than Loretta.

John Henry has stated many times he has no interest in keeping payroll lower than neccessary.

"Wakefield is just coming into his prime. Knuckleballers mature at 40."

LOL (is there a better way of saying that was funny. I hate LOL. Should I just say "That was funny"?)

But, Debris, you're missing my point. It's hard ever to be optimistic about an old creaky pitching staff (and for now, 3 of 5 slots are filled by forty year olds). As a Yanks fan, I was merely offering a word of caution to my Sox fan friends out there. You guys seem to always get your expectations up. And usually, they're crushed. Plus, Wang, Chacon and Pavano are not exactly old either. Reliable? Well, that's another thing.

Debris,

Damon and Crisp are roughly equal, but offensively, I will be inclined to give the edge to Crisp because of his better pop, and if he is not leading off. If Crisp is leading off, Damon is the better hitter with his higher OBP.

Hopefully my post 11 is somewhat better.

Rodriguez equalled his best offensive year. I expect some downgrade, of course. But the loss of Bernie Williams (just sign a damn DH/OFer, ummm, Hidalgo?), John Flaherty, Tony Womack, Ruben Sierra can only make Yankees better. Remember, the Yankees sucked last year, still won that many games because A-Rod, Jeter, Sheffield and later Giambi carried the team offensively. Matsui was more lucky than good, perhaps, and I expect more consistent seasons from him and Giambi.

I don't think Cleveland is getting enough back for Crisp. Marte maybe the real deal but he flunked out his first run through on Hank Aaron Drive. Mota's a nice piece but come on is he worth a good and rising young talent like Coco Puff?

Because Coco's CF defensive metrics are below average could this be a precursor to a Manny trade that might bring back a CF? Is Boston looking at Crisp as a LF replacement rather than as a CF?

I think its interesting that neither Cleveland paper has picked this story up on its web site, not even to say that the Globe or the Herald is reporting it. Problems?

If the deal was Crisp for Marte straight up, Cleveland is a winner. This one ranks closely with Boston-Atlanta deal of Renteria/Marte.

If Manny is traded for a CF, I will be ecstatic. No one, not even Carlos Beltran or Jim Edmonds can equal Manny's value.

Manny + Damon >> Any CF + Coco Crisp.

Two things I have taken to eagerly looking forward to, are 1) Rob Gee's man crush on Milton Bradley, and the magical ways he can dream of his acquisition, dream on my friend! and 2) debris' endless, total optimism about every move the Sox make this off-season. I seriously think they could trade David Wells for a bag of balls and all of a sudden Wells is the aging, cranky pitcher we know he is rather than the guaranteed 15 game winner he sometimes seems to be in debris' mouth. That's not to say I don't like this trade for the Sox, more that I know I can count on long, point by point rebuttals from debris, while we throw random comments out just to see if s/he will respond. Keep it up debris, I really do enjoy it, wouldn't be the same without you!

From rotoworld via dirtdogs:
"It's a sequence of events that may placate the media, but that doesn't make it any less disturbing. Marte alone is worth more than Crisp, in our opinion, just as he was worth quite a bit more than Edgar Renteria. The Red Sox are giving up Guillermo Mota, too, and it's unclear what they'll be getting back along with Crisp. Gonzalez is an even bigger problem, especially if it's a multiyear deal. He's not much of an upgrade over Alex Cora, and Dustin Pedroia might be Boston's best option at shortstop by June 1." -- 1.22.06, Rotoworld

wsporter, the Boston Herlald, ESPN, and MLB are reporting that the Indians and Red Sox have already reached agreement on the deal. If the red sox were interested in Coco Crisp as a left fielder instead of cf if they`re trading Manny (which I doubt), they`d be better off putting Marte in left next year.

The sox should be worried about their outfield defense, especially considering the flyball tendencies of their staff. Manny is absolutely horrible in left, Crisp has not shown he can be even an average centerfielder, and Nixon isn't any better than average.

wporter,

Looking at the Sox message boards, none seem to be in agreement with you. I appear to be the only Sox fan happy with this deal. I agree that the Sox are overpaying for Crisp, but they're in a situation in CF where they have to and their farm system is deep enough where they can afford to.

Nick,

Would you rather have a healthy dependable 43 year old or young guys like Wang and his shoulder, Pavano and his shoulder, Wright and his shoulder?

Sam,

My expectation is that the combination of age and the Fenway bump will give Crisp a better OBP than Damon. That said, I would still lead off Youkilis and hit Crisp seventh or eighth. Crisp, though speedy, is not a good baserunner.

Also, Sam, yes Marte is more valuable than Crisp, but Crisp is more valuable than Renteria. The Sox make out in the long run. You're Manny + Damon equation is dead on, but not because of Damon. The Sox can't trade Manny and compete. We Sox fans just hope the FO knows that.

Zack,

I don't automatically like everything the Sox do, although I'm quite pleased with the way this winter has progressed. There are two moves this winter that don't please me. The Taveras signing and the Gonzalez signing. The other thing I don't like is the idea of Crisp leading off, as I expect he will.

Dingus,

"If the red sox were interested in Coco Crisp as a left fielder instead of cf if they`re trading Manny (which I doubt), they`d be better off putting Marte in left next year." How and why would Marte be better than Crisp in left? If the Sawx have Crisp they don't have Marte so how is that relevant?
"The Boston Herlald, ESPN, and MLB are reporting that the Indians and Red Sox have already reached agreement on the deal." Those sites are all reporting that the deal is close but not consummated.

Debris,

I guess a billion Sawx fans can't be wrong.

nycfan,

According to Baseball Prospectus, Nixon is still a strong outfielder, despite his physical woes. His instincts are superb and he plays hard. Crisp has been a strong left-fielder, a less than average centerfielder. He should be adequate in center with more experience as he does have youth, good speed, and a decent arm. Manny? Manny. No, overall, the outfield defense is not going to get this team deep into October.

What do you guys think would happen if Tampa Bay offered Baldelli to the Bosox for Marte? Would they take him over Crisp?

I meant they`d be better off not trading for Crisp if he was their option for LF, despite his ungodly UZR.

Hate to change the subject ... but is this the FIRST TIME EVER that Zimbalist has supported a new stadium proposal? Certainly I've never heard such before.

Very interesting indeed.

Dingus,

Sorry about that, I was kind of rushed. Didn't mean to make it seem like I was in attack mode. UZR is a grate stat, I agree. It shows Crisp to be a terrific LF. The reason I think Crisp may not be the guy you want in CF is set forth here: http://tinyurl.com/bwtq9.

I think he has the pop from both sides to give you guys what you need in left. Also, I see him holding a lot of guys to singles off the wall so his range wouldn't necessarily be wasted. He can play CF so he gives you a whole bunch of flexibility. Perspective is a weird thing I guess. From where I sit and given who I root for, I see this as a great deal for you guys. I don't see Crisp as the same plus defender as a CF as he is in LF so maybe the deal, if it happens, is closer in value than I thought from the Sawx POV. I really think Mota was going to get lit up at Fenway on a regular basis. My sense is he's a creation of Chavez Ravine. I may be wrong on that one. Marte is projectable but is still an unknown. How much better than Boone can he be this year? Who will replace Crisp? How close to Crisp in production can that replacement come offensively and defensively? From Cleveland's POV I just don't see this deal as described making sense. So that was part of my thinking.

Andrew Zimbalist makes no mention of the fragmentation of an old and beloved Macombs Dam park. Ten small parks is not a substitute for one great park. Zimbalist argues that the Yankees are making the greatest private contribution to a stadium in history aproximately ($800 million vs. $300 million for the SF Giants). He then cites the relatively smaller percentage of infrastructure improvements (most directly related to the baseball stadium itself) as a merit of the project. That's fuzzy political math.

$210 M (NYC and NY state funds)
$800 M Yankee funds

Look Ma! The people are only picking up 20% of the costs! Compare that SF owner Peter Macgowen (figures from Wikipedia):

$10 M (SF tax abatement)
$300 M SF Giant funds

Look Ma! The people of SF picked up 3.3% of the totla costs BUT they picked up 200 MILLION LESS than the good people of NY.

The Yankees are counting on a provision to the collective bargaining agreement that allows them to deduct construction costs from funds they are paying in the luxury tax - something that is precisely opposed to the spirit of the tax. Would the Yankees really spend $800 million dollars if that clause was closed? Of course they would not.

Finally this bit from Zimbalist is just bizarre - "Together with the development of surrounding commercial space and the prospect for a new Metro-North platform, the project will be a major facelift for the area and help gentrify the South Bronx."

Help "gentrify" the South Bronx? Poor people have to live someplace. Many live in the Bronx. It's not helping to sweep poor people out of neighborhoods without improving the job conditions.

Renovation of Fenway produced nearly twice the jobs (renovation is more difficult) than new construction would have produced. If you want to 'help' the South Bronx - renovate the world's most highly attended ballpark. Ugh.

More articulate points at Field of Schemes.
http://tinyurl.com/8m7hl

wsporter, the deal is pending. It depends on the Indians being able to trade for a LF to replace Crisp, like Jason Michaels, who they are rumored to be getting for Arthur Rhodes or Rafael Betancourt.

joejoejoe, while I don't necessarily disagree with your points, the one thing you have to realize is that 1) the cost of land and living is higher in New York City than San Francisco. and 2) inflation needs to be factored in for the change in value of the money spent on San Fran's stadium since it was built to compare it to the proposed stadium deal.

And to everyone, Marte had 57 at bats and 64 plate appearances. That sample size is very far from a meaningful one.

"The Yankees are counting on a provision to the collective bargaining agreement that allows them to deduct construction costs from funds they are paying in the luxury tax - something that is precisely opposed to the spirit of the tax." Say what? THAT is the exact reason it's in the CBA (and was in the previous CBA as well), courtesy of Uncle Bud. So, now that the Yankees are the, what, 9th or 10th franchise to take advantage of it, you're all put out? Sheesh. It's the one thing Selig WOULD WANT the Yankees to do, for chrissake.

Adam B -

The NY Times salary calculator places a construction worker in SF at only 0.2% less pay than in NYC (both 43K and change). The cost of commercial real estate IS much higher in NY as you mention above (NY $46.42 vs. SF $27.14). But neither inflation nor real estate costs explain the ratio of public to private costs in comparing the SFGiants and NYYankees.

Ratio of private to public investments in SF and NY
30 to 1 in San Francisco
4 to 1 in New York

That is the apples to apples comparison. Why should NY residents pay more than 700% more infrastructure costs for a so-called privately funded stadium? And all of the above is based on Zimbalest's numbers from the NYT editorial, numbers which Neil deMause at Field of Schemes has shown to be highly dubious.

JohnnyC -

I misread the passage I was referecing from Baseball Prospectus. It's not the luxury tax that is at issue but the operating revenues. I'll just post an excerpt and let everyone read it for themselves. From Baseball Prospectus:

"The Yankees would foot the bill for the stadium itself, though, a remarkable turnaround from earlier plans to have the city kick in at least half of the cost. How will they do it? The explanation is buried in a tiny clause hidden deep within MLB's Basic Agreement. According to Article XXIV, Section a(5) of the 2002 collective bargaining agreement, teams must make revenue-sharing payments on all baseball revenue, but can deduct "the 'Stadium Operations Expenses' of each Club, as reported on an annual basis in the Club's FIQ [Financial Information Questionnaire]. That's all it says. But according to baseball sources, teams have been quietly allowed to count stadium construction debt as "stadium operations expenses," thus claiming it as a deduction against revenue sharing.

A few moments with a calculator--and a copy of Andrew Zimbalist's May the Best Team Win, which lays out the details of the new revenue-sharing plan starting on page 99--reveals the impact of this clause on George Steinbrenner's stadium plans. The Yankees currently pay a marginal revenue-sharing rate of about 39% of local revenue. (Low-revenue teams, interestingly, pay an even higher marginal rate, which may help explain why teams like the Twins are seemingly so disinterested in such aspects of the business as, oh, selling tickets.) Taking a deduction for $40 million a year in stadium bond payments would thus earn the Yankees a $15.6 million-a-year write-off on their annual revenue-sharing obligations. Over time, about $300 million of the House That George Built would be paid for by the other 29 teams. - Neil DeMause."

http://tinyurl.com/74nre

So it's not the Luxury Tax dollars that are shifted but the revenue sharing obligations.

joejoejoe,
While I am not realyl in favor of a new stadium at all, I can't really fathom any renovations that could be completed in the offseason that would make the dramatic changes George is looking for, and to be perfectly honest, would beenfit the Yanks a lot in terms of revenue. Sure, Fenway can take gre