Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The Yankees have officially announced the trade that will at long last send Tony Womack hurtling into the sun, or at least Cincinnati. It's a minor deal, with the Yankees unloading an unwanted, unproductive player for a pair of minor leaguers, but as far as I'm concerned, it's a minor miracle.
Not only have the Reds agreed to take Womack and his $2 million salary off the Yankees hands for 2006, but they've sent, not one, but two able-bodied young men back to the Bronx for the privilege. Were these kids ticket takers or pretzel vendors (seriously, the Stadium is in dire need of more pretzel vendors, I can never get a pretzel without having to retreat into the concourses) it would have been a steal, but they can actually play baseball.
The lesser player, outfielder Ben Himes, is too old for his league, having failed to advance beyond A-ball at the age of 24. But he did hit .320/.372/.533 for Sarasota in the Florida State League last year. Himes is a fourth outfielder at best, but given that strong showing and the fact that he got a late start (he was drafted out of college in 2003), there's no reason to write him off just yet.
Kevin Howard, meanwhile, was ranked by both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America as the top player available in today's Rule 5 draft. A 24-year-old, lefty-hitting second baseman who spent all of 2005 in double-A, Howard doesn't have a whole lot of power, but gets his hits and knows how to draw a walk (his .296/.346/.428 line in Chattanooga last year is fairly representative of his abilities at the plate). Howard played 3B in college and returned there in October in the Arizona Fall League where he crushed to the tune of .409/.475/.557, winning the AFL batting crown. A left-handed hitter, Howard's never had a great defensive reputation, but his offensive skills and ability to play multiple positions (it's thought he could also be used in the outfield) could make him a useful utility player as soon as the latter half of this year, which means he's probably already more valuable than Womack. Best of all, the Yankees got him without having to keep him on the 25-man roster all year.
That's a hell of a take for a player who is almost guaranteed to cost the Reds both wins and a couple mil. Indeed, between this trade and the list of players not offered arbitration last night, the Yankees have drastically improved their ballclub in the last 15 hours simply by deleting deleterious players. Check out the dearly departed and their 2005 VORPs:
John Flaherty -9.6
Kevin Brown -9.5
Tony Womack -8.9
Darrell May -8.5
Tim Redding -5.4
Alan Embree -4.8
Matt Lawton -3.5
Ruben Sierra -2.3
Mark Bellhorn -1.0
Rey Sanchez -0.5
Mike Vento -0.5
Russ Johnson -0.3
No, those aren't dashes, those are negative numbers. If the Yankees can replace those twelve men with replacement level players--the sort that can be acquired via the waiver wire or promoted from the minors--they stand to improve by nearly 55 runs in 2006, that's five and a half wins. For example, John Flaherty's replacement, Kelly Stinnett, had a VORP of 5.3 in 2005, that's a net improvement of 14.9 runs, or a win and a half in the back-up catcher slot alone. Oh, Glorious Day!
Now, there's one big question left - and its not "Who plays CF?" Rather, its "Why is Wayne #%(%(#@! Franklin still on the 40-man roster?"
The Value Over analysis is great stuff. If we've topped out on high end talent we can do some nice building at the other end of the 25 man roster. I think we can learn something from the White Sox' model.
Nick, Myers is one of those LOOGYs who should never be allowed to face righty hitters. That's a major problem. That said, he does do his job against lefties and was +10 VORP last year (vs. Embree's -4.8 above, that's another win-and-a-half gain).
Here's hoping he's just a placeholder for a younger home-grown arm and a reason to release Wayne Frankin. No word on the money involved in the two-year deal yet.
Now if only we could get a CF for one of our back of the rotation guys. Simple fact, we found 3 above-average SP's last year (Wang, Chacon, Small) with a little experimentation. Hopefully they continue to produce. We found NO CF's last year with a lot of experimentation. Get the CF CASH-man.
Also, anyone seen how much cash the Yanks sent their way? It wouldn't surprise me if they sent most of Womack's salary for '06, which would still save the Yanks in the luxury tax (right?). This all seems like a clever move by Cashman using the Rule 5 draft to his advantage (without needing to preserve a spot on the 25 man -- just the 40 man.)
Anyone think Womack will rebound enough to be worth $1.1 M to the Reds? If he repeats his 2004 numbers, he wouldn't be too badly overpaid.
You summarized my views perfectly. Starting pitchers are such a gamble that the extra security provided by the back of the rotation guys is really not worth that much. The Yanks scrambled well last year. If need be, they can scramble next year. (Also, as a fan, I found seeing new pitchers being given tryouts to be an entertaining roller coaster ride last year). Henn will be a year older and perhaps he will be ready to contribute.
By the way, can the Yankees still sign Tim Redding to a minor league deal? I think that Kerrigan might be able to get something out of him.
Starters:
Unit
Moose
Wang
Chacon
Pavano
Bullpen:
Mo
Farnsworth
Sturtze
Wright
Small
Myers
(open spot)
Jason Anderson is out of options, which makes him candidate #1 for the open spot, I guess. And given the pen's construction, if whoever fills the opening ever sees the light of day, it'll be a miracle. We've all seen this one before.
Unless one, if not two, of Wright, Small, and Sturtze suddenly pitch lights-out from the pen - let's be honest, not bloody likely - I see not much progress over last year's pen, addition by subtraction aside.
Sigh.
But CF's get 500 AB's and play defense.(Am I mutilating the horse yet?)
Groan...
How many of those pitchers will stay healthy? Based on last year, I'd say around 2 of them will be on the DL at any given time.
v. Left: .158 .198 .211 .409
v. Right: .385 .510 .641 1.151
Given his historic tendencies, that's not a certainty.
2004 - BA: .244 OBP: .291 SLG: .444 OPS: .735
2005 - BA: .224 OBP: .265 SLG: .374 OPS: .639
And he is moving to a pitcher's park! Now I don't think that he will do this badly. After all, he did quite well at Yankee Stadium which is not a hitter's park. But you have to wonder if the Nationals are overestimating his abilities.
http://tinyurl.com/97pbp
Crazy thought (shades of A-Rod) he'll accept a move to 2B to come to The Bronx, but we lose Cano, Duncan and probably one more top prospect. Maybe worse yet, Cano/Wang and a lower level prospect... Would you do a deal like that today?
He's simply too much fun to have in the field. I think watching someone with that kind of joy for the game sitting on the bench would make me want to cry.
Talk about punishing a decomposing equine, how bout same trade but Jeter in CF and Tejada at short. I know I'm just pissing in the wind, but what the hell its late.
that was my first thought, but then i realized, as much sense as we all know it would make, jeter will never even be asked to switch.
How about Milton Bradley instead?
Haven't you and I been through enough?
I feel wanted when there's conflict - a very long and painful childhood...
You know, it's just all this nostalgia for drunks and manwhores has me a little emotional. I'm sorry - I'll pull myself together.
I wouldn't worry about it. I'm sure it's just an outsized need to belong. I often wander through a similar indigestible set of memories at this hour as well. Ah, good times, good times.
Tejada wants a trade. Tejada is a stud and is owed a lot of money, all of which he's worth. Tejada is a shortstop.
Tejada is probably the only guy in baseball for whom the Sox could trade Manny and make themselves a better team.
This Manny for Tejada crap was all over the airwaves in Boston last night. What are these people smoking?
I know they are 4 years apart in age, but I'd rather have Manny at 37 when he's still OPSing over .900 than Tejada at any age.
Also consider the fact that they can find a better left fielder between now and April than they can a shortstop.
He says they aren't making the right moves. Well they signed a pretty decent, young catcher in Ramon Hernandez, so now Javy can get some rest at 1B/DH, and it's not their fault the Blue Jays overpaid for BJ Ryan and AJ Burnett. They've got Mazzone now so maybe they'll see an uptick in their pitching. They've got a pretty solid offense as well. But he's ready to jump ship when the offseason isn't even half over. I hate using this phrase, but that's "bush league".
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