It could happen. And with a couple more seasons after this one, he could very well be the only 300 game winner never to have a 20 win season.

Phil Hughes (Low-A): 3.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 WP, 2-4 GB/FB

On the MVP stuff ... which always starts rumbling around August ... if someone wants to argue that had he not been hurt A Rod would be a solid candidate as of right now to DESERVE the award I'd would agree, if numbers projected evenly. He'd have 2-3-4 more hrs, competing for lead even more than he is, and possibly still leading in batting average. His rbis would be WAY below Hamilton's. Kinsler, for me, is far beyond Mauer this year, not even close. Dye is strong, I agree, but is not the best or most dangerous White Sox just as Mauer isn't close to Morneau (Morneau is an exceptionally good hitter, hurt in media terms by where he plays and being ... bland?)

My own sense is that this is likely to be a many-horse race, and that the usual tilt to the big rbi guy will give it to Hamilton, especially if you add the feelgood (it is!) storyline. His handicap is a mediocre team, which does play a role. Prediction is not 'who deserves it most' but right now, for both I'd still say Alex is 5th or so this year. There is, obviously, a lot of ball to play and September surges play a big role.

Cy Young is wide, wide open, as it was last year. Lee is the early story, probably still the leader, Duchscherer in there and (alas?) Dice K. Saunders. Halladay. I wonder if they'd give it to to K Rod, discounting annoyance factor if he breaks the record (his Ks and walk-rate are both weaker this year than last, more ammo for the 'saves suck as a stat' people.)

RoY? Surely Longoria, both on coverage and desert, especially since he has those numbers after missing a month.

I think it's absurd to use RBI to figure out who's the MVP. Guys get on base ahead of Hamilton much more than they get on base ahead of A-Rod this year. That means any good hitter in Hamilton's slot would knock in a lot of runs; Hamilton doesn't add all that much. I can see looking at a combination of OPS+ and some 'counting stat', since Alex does lose value by missing games. Even so, I don't think Hamilton is even close.
Morneau has been a more productive hitter than Mauer, but he's a first baseman. Mauer is a catcher. That makes his hitting much, much more valuable. Think of the drop-off if you had to replace Mauer. Yankee fans don't need much imagination to do that!

If we're predicting, well, the voters don't like A-Rod, and they aren't smart enough to understand why they should stop obsessing about RBI, and they don't even understand that a great-hitting catcher is vastly more valuable than a great-hitting first baseman (they gave it to Morneau instead of Mauer two years ago). So, probably Hamilton, but I'm not all that interested in predicting the vote.

I can't believe K-Rod could get the Cy Young. He's obviously not the best relief pitcher this year, let alone the best pitcher.

I absolutely agree (thought I said it) that rbis get overvalued, just as wins or saves can be. Having said that, when Alex won last year it was in good part for a massive rbi year. Homers are just a way of generating runs, right? I do agree that Alex is at least as 'deserving' right now as Hamilton or anyone else, a decent case more so ... his slugging and ops+ are both well above the other prime bruisers. He'd have to blitz it the last 50 games, and the Yankee media machine would have to crank up awareness of how good a season he's actually having (in the shadow of last year's).

K Rod gets it only if he obliterates a record and the starters are too tangled to make an easy choice. Do Lee and Duch get 'punished' the way batters are since their teams are out of it? I have no stats to hand, but a sense that batters suffer the 'meaningless' problem more than pitchers do. Maybe because to win the need 18-20 games you CAN'T usually be on a bad team! (Steve Carlton: pause to remember.)

1 2 if moose gets 300 i think he would have to be a shoo in.
i agree with tommyl, that this season should put him over the top to get in. i know everything that's going to get brought up against him, but i think he should get in.
(guess we're just predicting with that too).

The bad news? I checked his page, and Schilling has at least as good a shot. If matters hold as they are now, he'd come up a year (or 2 or 3) ahead of Mussina.

Mauer came SIXTH the year he hit .343 or whatever and won the title.

Exactly. That's why I used that season as an example of how incompetent the voters are.

I actually watch a fair number of at-bats for the Twins, and Morneau is a flat-out stud hitter, not just a power guy.

Mauer is as good a hitter as Morneau, except for the homers. Look at his batting average. And he gets on base more than Morneau, too.

Unless you overvalue home runs, by a whole lot, I don't see how you can think Morneau is as valuable as Mauer. Try comparing each to the player you'd use as a replacement, as I suggested, and you'll see, it's no contest.