Bay to the Sox is bad news for us, friends.

Meanwhile, go Pittsburgh! Sorry for our Dodger Thoughts friends.

It will never happen, because Kemp is too on fire right now, but if they wanted to, the Dodgers could play Manny in LF, Pierre in CF, and Andruw in RF. I'm sure that has the DT crowd frightened.

Nah, he'll still never beat us as many times as Manny did. I bet we win an extra game against the Sox every year now because of it.

Who's next? Is Papi unhappy at all? ;-)

The Sox probably didn't get any better, but they probably also didn't get any worse. Now, Manny and his "distraction" isn't their problem anymore and Craig Hansen and his general crapitude is out of their BP too. I think they get better just by virtue of that alone

Bay, meanwhile, is going to be boring and nearly as good as the aging Manny, if not better. And he's not leaving as a free agent this winter, either. (Then again, that means less competition for the Yankees in signing outfielders, which they'll need to do.)

Completely agree, Cliff. Bay may even be an improvement on Manny, all things considered, but something just went out of the rivalry.

Now I'm sold, Shaun. You were right.
Dammit.

Everyone reacts to trading Manny based on Manny Ramirez of the past, rather than going forward. I really see no reason why Bay can't mitigate the loss of Ramirez for the rest of the season.

Sox got more long-term value if Bay lives up to his career line. Hopefully he's closer to his interleague line.

8 I will miss being the quiet voice booing Manny from my seat in Fenway, while everyone around stands and screams their hearts out.

I wonder if the Dodgers pick up his option?

That's the second time he's been traded for a middle infielder, by the way- in 2006 the Dodgers traded him to the Nats for Marlon Anderson.

You should have, because then I could show you exactly how much you fail:

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/replacing_manny_ramirez_with_jason_bay

Still, I think I'd rather have Bay, I-Rod, and two of Bruney/Britton/Melancon/Strickland/Cox.

But hey, think whatever you like.

If GMs were constructing teams based on "scariness," perhaps Manny would be more valuable. But players have value based on their performance on the field. And Bay and Manny are near equal in that regard. Unless you dispute the method, you can't discount the numbers.

Sure, Bay isn't as "scary" as Manny to us as fans, but he'll offer Ortiz plenty of protection in the lineup and he's cheap and under contract for another year (tho they will extend him another three or so I bet). And as I have said, the Sox can quite easily turn that $20M into CC

I'm not going to miss:
2008 - .417 .523 .778

There's no way Bay is replicating that disgusting line. Still hope the Yanks sign Manny though. Hopefully the Dodgers will audition him in RF for us.

Just speculating, but I'm guessing John Henry still wanted to keep Manny, but once the Rays started breathing heavily toward Bay, the Manny-must-go camp got bolstered.

Jason Bay
Interleague - .250 .312 .450 in 267 PA
Late/Close - .225 .350 .420 in 472 PA

And I would question how SG controlled for the quality of the pitchers each faced.

I'm going to miss the hell out of LaRoche but he just didn't seem to be in their plans for whatever reason and keep in mind they have DeWitt and could also re-sign Blake. Plus Boston eats the rest of Manny's salary this year plus the arbitration seems part of the deal so the Dodgers should get a Type A pick assuming they don't resign him (which is doubtful). Again, it could come back to haunt them down the road, but it also gives them a hell of a shot in the NL.

If Jones and Kemp or Kemp and Ether are the other two OFers with Manny, his defense shouldn't be as much of a liability, especially if he's remotivated.

And hey, if it's a total bust then Colletti will be fired and that doesn't make me that sad, either. It's win win!

How will you guys feel about not having to face him though?

Bay's a great player, Sox did score as far as personnel swapped if not in the money dept.

I think Bay is a very good player, but he's not getting better and he may be getting worse. Plus, from Canada, via Pittsburgh let's see how he handles the AL East.

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Bases Empty 105 225 10 65 14 1 10 10 26 51 0 0 .289 .365 .493 .858
Runners On 100 168 62 46 9 1 12 54 33 35 7 0 .274 .386 .554 .940
RISP 86 88 45 19 3 0 2 29 18 15 4 0 .216 .333 .318 .652
RISP w/2 Outs 45 33 17 7 1 0 1 11 10 5 1 0 .212 .395 .333 .729
Bases Loaded 14 4 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000

Ramirez:

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Bases Empty 97 193 11 59 8 1 11 11 26 48 0 0 .306 .396 .529 .925
Runners On 95 172 55 50 14 0 9 57 26 38 1 0 .291 .399 .529 .928
RISP 80 97 46 30 10 0 4 44 19 22 0 0 .309 .432 .536 .968
RISP w/2 Outs 55 46 19 12 5 0 1 17 12 13 0 0 .261 .424 .435 .859
Bases Loaded 20 11 12 2 0 0 0 5 1 4 0 0 .182 .250 .182 .432

And against much better pitching.

13. Posted at 2:11:54 am on Thursday, July 31, 2008 by SG

"Did I miss an AL/NL correction factor? It's probably non-negligible, even this year."

There's about a 4% difference between the leagues, so we'd expect Bay to be about 4% less valuable in the AL, but it's not readily apparent because Bay would be moving from PNC park which plays as a pitchers' park (batter park factor of 96 this year, 98 the past three years), to Fenway which plays as a hitter's park (batter park factor of 111 this year, 106 the last three years). Manny's projection is in Fenway, if I move him to Florida his line goes down slightly because the difference in parks is about 10%, cut in half is 5%, which means the league adjustment gets negated by the park factor and then some.

Manny isn't going to be happy with his home runs dieing in Chavez Ravine. Tee hee.

No way Bay is going to be as good as Manny. And I doubt David Ortiz sees a good pitch the rest of the season.

And when was the last time Manny had an OPS+ of 93? Bay did it last year.

This deal, minor as it is, perfectly illustrates the difference between the things I praise Cashman for and the things I criticize him for.

Value for value, it's probably a pretty darn good trade. AG has a good glove but can't hit for beans, isn't even really a major-league utility player. In exchange, they got a righty with a little bit of upside as a reliever. Cashman gets good value, as always.

The problem is that their system is so ridiculously thin that trading AG actually leaves a hole. Betemit is the only backup on the 40-man for three infield positions. They do have Nick Green and Chris Basak in S-WB, and they're probably even worse than AG (and require a roster move).

So, bad as AG is, they actually needed him more than they needed their 17th righty reliever with a little upside. That's not a pretty thought.

Nobody is really saying Bay will be better than Manny this year, what we are saying is that he will probably be near as good and that drop off isn't going to hurt the Sox very much at all. Plus, going forward, it is much more likely that Bay outproduces Manny.

.250 .357 .417 in 14 PA @ Fenway

Look, I would have preferred Bay to Nady/Marte. But I'm not giving him anything based on projections. He has to earn it. And still, I'm not convinced he can perform in pressure packed games. Let's see him earn that too.

"Serenity Now!!"