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Manny Over Board
2008-07-31 13:40
by Alex Belth
Note: The Bronx Banter blog has moved to bronxbanterblog.com.

According to SI.com, Manny Ramirez has been traded to the Dodgers in a three-way deal that also moves Jason Bay to Boston.  According to Ken Rosenthal:

The Pirates will receive Andy LaRoche and right-hander Bryan Morris from the Dodgers and outfielder Brandon Moss and releiver Craig Hansen from the Red Sox.

My first impression is that Boston did well for themselves.  Bay is a very good hitter who is likely to be even better with the Red Sox.  He might not be as great as Ramirez but he's a lot younger.  He's also cheaper--a lot cheaper.  I don't think the drop-off is that drastic to be honest.  Looks like a solid move by a team in a tough spot. 

Still, no Manny in Boston leaves an emptiness in the Yankee-Sox rivalry. 

Comments (88)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-07-31 13:50:07
1.   cult of basebaal
on the plus side, we get 2 months of manny having to deal with the likes of bill plaschke and tj simers ... though, i suppose, after the boston media, it won't seem much different ...
2008-07-31 13:52:29
2.   Shaun P
Dammit dammit dammit!

Bay to the Sox is bad news for us, friends.

Meanwhile, go Pittsburgh! Sorry for our Dodger Thoughts friends.

It will never happen, because Kemp is too on fire right now, but if they wanted to, the Dodgers could play Manny in LF, Pierre in CF, and Andruw in RF. I'm sure that has the DT crowd frightened.

2008-07-31 13:52:33
3.   pistolpete
Will all of us be regretting our exuberance when Bay's driving in the winning run during a Sunday night ESPN game off his former teammate Marte?

Nah, he'll still never beat us as many times as Manny did. I bet we win an extra game against the Sox every year now because of it.

Who's next? Is Papi unhappy at all? ;-)

2008-07-31 13:55:19
4.   Shaun P
Further proof this deal is bad. Steve Phillips thinks the Sox got the short end of the stick.
2008-07-31 13:55:24
5.   Mattpat11
I did a jig. Bay simply doesn't scare me that much.
2008-07-31 13:56:20
6.   JL25and3
3 Only this year. Some disagree as to whether the trade helps the Sox over the next two months. But they were going to lose Manny anyway, so Bay is a hell of a lot better than draft picks.
2008-07-31 13:56:59
7.   Zack
Considering the Sox really had no leverage, its pretty amazing that they were able to get as good a replacement for Manny as they could possibly hope for, and younger and cheaper. Now, they have $20M sitting around to throw at one CC Sabathia in the offseason.

The Sox probably didn't get any better, but they probably also didn't get any worse. Now, Manny and his "distraction" isn't their problem anymore and Craig Hansen and his general crapitude is out of their BP too. I think they get better just by virtue of that alone

2008-07-31 13:57:18
8.   Cliff Corcoran
In an odd way, I'm gonna miss the guy. Sure he killed the Yanks, but he's one of the great hitters in the game's history and never anything less than entertaining, even if in a bad way.

Bay, meanwhile, is going to be boring and nearly as good as the aging Manny, if not better. And he's not leaving as a free agent this winter, either. (Then again, that means less competition for the Yankees in signing outfielders, which they'll need to do.)

2008-07-31 13:57:22
9.   Just fair
JF "So, Moose. Who would you rather face in a tight game?
Manny or Bay?"
MM "You're F$%#ing kidding, right?"
2008-07-31 13:59:14
10.   Bagel Boy
To repeat myself: Wow, the Pirates got hosed twice this week. And what's more amazing is they got a better package for Marte/Nady than they did for Bay.
2008-07-31 13:59:52
11.   Alex Belth
"In an odd way, I'm gonna miss the guy. Sure he killed the Yanks, but he's one of the great hitters in the game's history and never anything less than entertaining, even if in a bad way."

Completely agree, Cliff. Bay may even be an improvement on Manny, all things considered, but something just went out of the rivalry.

2008-07-31 14:01:27
12.   RIYank
4 Uh oh.

Now I'm sold, Shaun. You were right.
Dammit.

2008-07-31 14:03:19
13.   RIYank
Don't undervalue Moss and Hansen, by the way. Craig had no real value this year, but he could develop into a good pitcher. And Moss was the best position player left in the Sox' system.
2008-07-31 14:03:38
14.   Chyll Will
3 Papi's shopping for new hiking boots as we speak. He might as well carry a newspaper and a tea set with him when he's up.
2008-07-31 14:05:44
15.   cult of basebaal
2 why would you feel sorry for the folks over at DT? they got manny for laroche, who they weren't going to play in any case ... manny's going to go APE in a contract drive in the weak sister league ...
2008-07-31 14:06:25
16.   Just fair
I have never liked clowns. Although he is one of the greatest rh hitters we will ever see, I am glad to see him off to the left coast. When he is flopping around left field at Chez Ravine I will be soundly asleep. : )
2008-07-31 14:06:27
17.   Zack
And as I said, "losing" Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss isn't exactly much of a negative for the Sox. Moss may become a league average outfielder, but who knows. Hansen simply sucks, big time.

Everyone reacts to trading Manny based on Manny Ramirez of the past, rather than going forward. I really see no reason why Bay can't mitigate the loss of Ramirez for the rest of the season.

2008-07-31 14:09:16
18.   Zack
13 I disagree totally. Hansen sucks and has never done anything but suck in professional baseball. Moss, on the other hand, was the most ML ready positional player, but they, like the Yanks, have some better prospects further down.
2008-07-31 14:09:42
19.   Bagel Boy
And further, the slurpee from Nady Mart could have gotten Bay. Hmmmm....

Sox got more long-term value if Bay lives up to his career line. Hopefully he's closer to his interleague line.

2008-07-31 14:10:07
20.   Shaun P
12 Steve Phillips is a powerful force for stupidity. Its a weird twist on the Seinfeld episode were George did the opposite of what he usually did. Take what Steve Phillips says, negate it, and that's solid analysis.

8 I will miss being the quiet voice booing Manny from my seat in Fenway, while everyone around stands and screams their hearts out.

I wonder if the Dodgers pick up his option?

2008-07-31 14:10:23
21.   Vandelay Industries
Without sounding like an aging Steve Phillips, seriously guys? Bay better than Manny? Seriously? You have to stop saying such things if you want to be taken seriously. I won't even do the ole' cite to the statistics in detail thing. Bay and his .280 lifetime average and 35 HR (best season of career) isn't even worthy of making that comparison. The distraction never hurt the Sox before, and any argument that not having the distraction helps this team and that Bay makes the team better than having Manny is specious at best. Please, you sound like Red Sox fans when you spew such sillyness.
2008-07-31 14:11:00
22.   mehmattski
So, why did the Yankees trade Alberto Gonzalez, the best infielder in the high minors, for a middling prospect like Jhonny Nunez?

That's the second time he's been traded for a middle infielder, by the way- in 2006 the Dodgers traded him to the Nats for Marlon Anderson.

2008-07-31 14:12:44
23.   Just fair
21 And you want to be my latex salesman?
2008-07-31 14:13:34
24.   mehmattski
21 I won't even do the ole' cite to the statistics in detail thing.

You should have, because then I could show you exactly how much you fail:

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/replacing_manny_ramirez_with_jason_bay

2008-07-31 14:13:35
25.   Bagel Boy
19 That's leaving out I-Rod of course.

Still, I think I'd rather have Bay, I-Rod, and two of Bruney/Britton/Melancon/Strickland/Cox.

2008-07-31 14:13:54
26.   Vandelay Industries
23 LOL.
2008-07-31 14:14:42
27.   Shaun P
15 Because LaRoche had them set at 3B for the next 6 years, while they might be getting just 2 months of Manny.
2008-07-31 14:16:34
28.   Vandelay Industries
24 I'm not buying what he's selling. Nope.
2008-07-31 14:16:44
29.   Zack
21 For the last time, look at the actual difference between their #s, look at their respective projections with park and league factors, and draw that out over the course of the season. We aren't talking about a league average hitter here. We are talking about players separated by .05 in OPS+. Don't fool yourself that Manny is going to be any better than what he is right now. Bay, on the other hand, is in his prime and besides last season's injury-wasted year, has been a very very very good outfielder.
2008-07-31 14:16:45
30.   cult of basebaal
20 no, part of the deal was that they would offer him arbitration and that he would refuse.
2008-07-31 14:17:08
31.   Shaun P
21 Tell that to SG over at RLYW, who ran the numbers - you know, that ole' cite to the statistic in detail thing - and found them, for 2008, to be just about even the rest of the way.

But hey, think whatever you like.

2008-07-31 14:18:14
32.   Vandelay Industries
24 And even assuming his extrapolation and projections are true, which is a stretch at best, its still a push. And we'll just see how Bay the known turtle deals with this kind of pressure.
2008-07-31 14:18:26
33.   Shaun P
28 Enjoy living in Steve Phillips' world, then.
2008-07-31 14:19:12
34.   mehmattski
28 Then you should be able to come up with a statistical argument finding fault with SG's method. His claim is that 2008 Bay = 2008 Manny, and that 2009+ Bay may be > 2009+ Manny. And the Red Sox get back a player a whole lot better than they could get with the draft picks from Manny compensation.

If GMs were constructing teams based on "scariness," perhaps Manny would be more valuable. But players have value based on their performance on the field. And Bay and Manny are near equal in that regard. Unless you dispute the method, you can't discount the numbers.

2008-07-31 14:19:52
35.   mehmattski
32 Known turtle? Basis for this claim, please.
2008-07-31 14:21:45
36.   Zack
32 How are they a stretch at best? Bay is moving to a better hitting park by far, and even counting in the better pitching of the AL, he has never, when healthy, done anything but produce, even on crappy crappy Pittsburgh teams where he has no protection.

Sure, Bay isn't as "scary" as Manny to us as fans, but he'll offer Ortiz plenty of protection in the lineup and he's cheap and under contract for another year (tho they will extend him another three or so I bet). And as I have said, the Sox can quite easily turn that $20M into CC

2008-07-31 14:22:29
37.   Bagel Boy
The only solace for me right now is:

I'm not going to miss:
2008 - .417 .523 .778

There's no way Bay is replicating that disgusting line. Still hope the Yanks sign Manny though. Hopefully the Dodgers will audition him in RF for us.

2008-07-31 14:22:44
38.   Max
13 Can't really go along with that assessment. Hansen has been close to useless his entire time with the Sox, and Moss has been nothing special. Looks like the Sox really did well here.

Just speculating, but I'm guessing John Henry still wanted to keep Manny, but once the Rays started breathing heavily toward Bay, the Manny-must-go camp got bolstered.

2008-07-31 14:24:25
39.   Zack
And don't get me wrong, obviously I am rooting hardcore for Bay to fall on his face in the AL and suddenly regress to last season's #s, but the chances of that happening aren't too great. This isn't JD Drew we are talking about...
2008-07-31 14:25:11
40.   Vandelay Industries
36 I'm just not ready to accept the projections of dropoff in Manny's production.
2008-07-31 14:25:59
41.   Bagel Boy
This helps too:

Jason Bay
Interleague - .250 .312 .450 in 267 PA
Late/Close - .225 .350 .420 in 472 PA

And I would question how SG controlled for the quality of the pitchers each faced.

2008-07-31 14:27:39
42.   underdog
You can read our Dodger Thoughts over at DT for more on this wacky (or whacked or wackness) trade.

I'm going to miss the hell out of LaRoche but he just didn't seem to be in their plans for whatever reason and keep in mind they have DeWitt and could also re-sign Blake. Plus Boston eats the rest of Manny's salary this year plus the arbitration seems part of the deal so the Dodgers should get a Type A pick assuming they don't resign him (which is doubtful). Again, it could come back to haunt them down the road, but it also gives them a hell of a shot in the NL.

If Jones and Kemp or Kemp and Ether are the other two OFers with Manny, his defense shouldn't be as much of a liability, especially if he's remotivated.

And hey, if it's a total bust then Colletti will be fired and that doesn't make me that sad, either. It's win win!

How will you guys feel about not having to face him though?

Bay's a great player, Sox did score as far as personnel swapped if not in the money dept.

2008-07-31 14:28:35
43.   Bagel Boy
What if the only difference between Manny and Bay is how they perform against the Yanks. That alone could be a win or two taken away.

I think Bay is a very good player, but he's not getting better and he may be getting worse. Plus, from Canada, via Pittsburgh let's see how he handles the AL East.

2008-07-31 14:31:22
44.   Vandelay Industries
Bay:

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Bases Empty 105 225 10 65 14 1 10 10 26 51 0 0 .289 .365 .493 .858
Runners On 100 168 62 46 9 1 12 54 33 35 7 0 .274 .386 .554 .940
RISP 86 88 45 19 3 0 2 29 18 15 4 0 .216 .333 .318 .652
RISP w/2 Outs 45 33 17 7 1 0 1 11 10 5 1 0 .212 .395 .333 .729
Bases Loaded 14 4 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000

Ramirez:

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Bases Empty 97 193 11 59 8 1 11 11 26 48 0 0 .306 .396 .529 .925
Runners On 95 172 55 50 14 0 9 57 26 38 1 0 .291 .399 .529 .928
RISP 80 97 46 30 10 0 4 44 19 22 0 0 .309 .432 .536 .968
RISP w/2 Outs 55 46 19 12 5 0 1 17 12 13 0 0 .261 .424 .435 .859
Bases Loaded 20 11 12 2 0 0 0 5 1 4 0 0 .182 .250 .182 .432

And against much better pitching.

2008-07-31 14:31:54
45.   mehmattski
41 From the comments on that post:

13. Posted at 2:11:54 am on Thursday, July 31, 2008 by SG

"Did I miss an AL/NL correction factor? It's probably non-negligible, even this year."

There's about a 4% difference between the leagues, so we'd expect Bay to be about 4% less valuable in the AL, but it's not readily apparent because Bay would be moving from PNC park which plays as a pitchers' park (batter park factor of 96 this year, 98 the past three years), to Fenway which plays as a hitter's park (batter park factor of 111 this year, 106 the last three years). Manny's projection is in Fenway, if I move him to Florida his line goes down slightly because the difference in parks is about 10%, cut in half is 5%, which means the league adjustment gets negated by the park factor and then some.

2008-07-31 14:31:56
46.   rbj
I used to like Manny, and could deal with all of his goofyness, until he shoved that old, er, middle aged guy (64 isn't old anymore to me). That's soured me.

Manny isn't going to be happy with his home runs dieing in Chavez Ravine. Tee hee.

No way Bay is going to be as good as Manny. And I doubt David Ortiz sees a good pitch the rest of the season.

2008-07-31 14:34:15
47.   vockins
37 Exactly. If Bay can hit with a 1.301 OPS, well, wtf. He's not going to do that.

And when was the last time Manny had an OPS+ of 93? Bay did it last year.

2008-07-31 14:34:26
48.   JL25and3
22 Thanks for beating me to that one, Matt. Nice to know I'm not alone.

This deal, minor as it is, perfectly illustrates the difference between the things I praise Cashman for and the things I criticize him for.

Value for value, it's probably a pretty darn good trade. AG has a good glove but can't hit for beans, isn't even really a major-league utility player. In exchange, they got a righty with a little bit of upside as a reliever. Cashman gets good value, as always.

The problem is that their system is so ridiculously thin that trading AG actually leaves a hole. Betemit is the only backup on the 40-man for three infield positions. They do have Nick Green and Chris Basak in S-WB, and they're probably even worse than AG (and require a roster move).

So, bad as AG is, they actually needed him more than they needed their 17th righty reliever with a little upside. That's not a pretty thought.

2008-07-31 14:41:01
49.   Bagel Boy
45 Wait, what does 4% even mean? How was that calculated? You can't simply look at earned runs. The problem with the two leagues is they're mostly independent samples - thus more variability in comparing them.
2008-07-31 14:45:01
50.   Zack
43 Again, the likelihood that Manny vs Bay actually determines anything in the standings is incredibly limited. You are both judging this off of your emotional reaction to how Manny has hit the Yankees and the player he has been. Fair enough. Except that by every other measure, and over the course of half a season, that simply doesn't make as much of a difference. Kevin Millar also crushes the Yankees, it doesn't mean the Sox should trade for him (again) too. Bay is moving to Fenway Park, he will absolutely mash there, and there really isn't much to suggest otherwise.

Nobody is really saying Bay will be better than Manny this year, what we are saying is that he will probably be near as good and that drop off isn't going to hurt the Sox very much at all. Plus, going forward, it is much more likely that Bay outproduces Manny.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2008-07-31 14:45:08
51.   Bagel Boy
Jason Bay:
Last 7 days - .200 .250 .320
Last 14 days - .250 .293 .442
2008-07-31 14:46:12
52.   Zack
49 I think you are overvaluing the difference between the two leagues a lot. Sure, there is a difference, but not very much. As SG wrote, its about a 4% expected decline in his overall #s, but that is basically totally offset by playing in Fenway...
2008-07-31 14:47:50
53.   Mr OK Jazz TOKYO
9 I think you said it all there, JustFair. To me this is great news to wake up to! Solid players don't ever replace superstars..
2008-07-31 14:48:55
54.   Bagel Boy
Not much to suggest otherwise:

.250 .357 .417 in 14 PA @ Fenway

Look, I would have preferred Bay to Nady/Marte. But I'm not giving him anything based on projections. He has to earn it. And still, I'm not convinced he can perform in pressure packed games. Let's see him earn that too.

2008-07-31 14:50:17
55.   Vandelay Industries
50 I will agree to disagree.
2008-07-31 14:50:37
56.   JL25and3
50 Maybe it's just that it takes some of the fun and some of the drama out of the remaining Yanks-Sox games. I'm not convinced that Bay will be as good right now, but even if he is - I don't know, my heart just doesn't start beating faster if Bay's coming up with two men on in a close game.
2008-07-31 14:52:01
57.   joe in boston
Advice to Joe Torre and Don Mattingly:

"Serenity Now!!"

2008-07-31 14:52:47
58.   Bagel Boy
52 Again, where does that 4% come from. If it's based on runs, it's meaningless. For instance, the AL could have the better hitters and pitchers. The NL could have the worse hitters and pitchers. And they can both allow the same number of runs (or a 4% difference). Substitute hits, or strikeouts or etc and it's the same deal. It's very hard to compare them because there's so little overlap. Worse, when there is an overlap, the AL dominates. Why?
2008-07-31 14:52:48
59.   Zack
56 Of course not. Manny was a great player and a joy to watch in many ways. Your heart might not beat faster, but if/when Bay drives in those runs, you'll be equally pissed...
2008-07-31 14:53:25
60.   Vandelay Industries
57 LOL. Manny is going to mash in LA. He truly is playing for a contract now.
2008-07-31 14:53:43
61.   Bagel Boy
56 It sure will be fun to watch cause worst case he won't do better than Manny!
2008-07-31 14:54:04
62.   SG in ATL
37 Odds are pretty good Manny would not have repeated that line over the rest of the season either.

41 I know when I try to value players, I'd use the #s from 267 or 476 specially selected PAs instead of the 3000 PAs that fully encompass their careers.

49 You look at the players who've switched leagues over the last four years and compare what they did to what they should have been expected to do. So if a player's was worth 100 runs in the NL, in the AL it'd be worth 96 runs, and vice versa.

2008-07-31 14:56:44
63.   Just fair
[Zach]
Intangible Alert.] "he will absolutely mash there, and there really isn't much to suggest otherwise."
Steel City to Bean Town
14.5 out to Pennant Race
Post-Gazette to etc, etc
Repacing Brian Giles to Replacing Manny Ramirez
N.L. Pitching to A.L. pitching
Did I miss anything?
I do know where you're coming from, though.
2008-07-31 14:59:53
64.   Jeb
I don't think Bay is a bad player, but he's not going to hit like Manny, particularly against the Yankees. There's a big difference between hitting in the NL with no pressure and hitting in the AL with lots of pressure. Also, Manny is a defensive liability, but he has a cannon for an arm and gunned out lots of guys trying to take second on a hit of the Monster.

Hypothetical:

There's 2 outs in the 6th. The Yankees are ahead 3-2 and the bases are loaded. Moose is on the mound. Is there anyone on the Banter who would PREFER to see Manny Ramirez step to the plate over Jason Bay?

Manny's got a .321 .411 .618 1.029 line against the Yanks lifetime. I am GLAD to have him gone.

2008-07-31 15:01:52
65.   Bagel Boy
62
pt1
Career vs. NYY
.321 .411 .618 - 849 PA with 55 HRs

Okay, so he would have hit one less HR than projected.

pt2 - Alert! Snark Alert! Alert!

pt3 - Okay, that's a start. Still, I'd worry about the size of the sample and the players involved. When you include that variance with the 4% you could be looking at three standard deviations equaling a 10-15% difference between leagues. That's the difference between a .900 OPS guy and a .800 OPS guy.

2008-07-31 15:04:25
66.   Shaun P
62 Welcome to the insanity, SG. Glad to have you on board.
2008-07-31 15:04:35
67.   Just fair
Manny may actually be a better left fielder than Bay. : )

http://tinyurl.com/58sya6

2008-07-31 15:09:37
68.   horace-clarke-era
I give Boston a TON of credit for this one, alas. As I said earlier today, this year's Manny was toxic, it was a mess, it was about to play all hell with their pennant chase (just swept in Fenway dontcha know). They got out from under him (unlike a certain baseball in short left three weeks ago), got a very solid ballplayer in his good years and cheap at the price, freeing them for the future while NOT missing a lot for the next two months. Arguably, improving the team for two months ... remember it is THIS year's Manny we're talking, the one who is a sulking Boy with wonky knees AND wanted out.

Yes, he brought fear and a weird glamor to Yanks/Bosox, but the Sox are better tonight than they were last night and will be even better next spring.

Doesn't mean they'll beat us, or Tampa, but this was nimble GM work.

2008-07-31 15:09:44
69.   Bagel Boy
66 Cool! Question time of the local expert:

1) How many players get included? Plate appearance minimum before and after the switch?

2) What's the standard deviation across the set of players?

3) Does pitching show the same 4% difference?

My worry is that we've seen too many players come from the NL and struggle for it to be that small and the total dominance of the NL is glaring. Bay will be another nice test case though.

2008-07-31 15:10:02
70.   underdog
"There's a big difference between hitting in the NL with no pressure and hitting in the AL with lots of pressure." I think this is a good point.

Though I wonder if you guys are undervaluing the level of pitching in the NL? There are some incredible pitchers in the NL, as well as what I think are more pitcher-friendly parks, no? I mean I still think the AL is the superior league right now as far as overall talent, but I wouldn't penalize Bay for hitting in a weaker league that is still full of strong pitching. (Though, granted, I don't think the pitching in the NL Central is as strong as it is in say, the NL West.) So keeping all that in mind it will be interesting to see how Manny fares in that division, in those parks. Hopefully will still mash.

2008-07-31 15:18:03
71.   weeping for brunnhilde
Yaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!!!!!!!!!!

YAAAAAYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

HA AH AHA HAH AH AH AH H !!!!!!!

YAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good luck, Joe!

I can't believe these two days.

Good God, this is the best trade season I can recall in a long while!

So long, Manny!

Fare thee well!

Yaaayyyy!!!!

2008-07-31 15:18:44
72.   RIYank
67 In Fenway, Manny is actually not a bad fielder. Out of Fenway, dreadful. (Sorry, underdog.)

On Bay switching leagues:
I think the biggest issue is how he'll do this season against a lot of pitchers he's never (or rarely) seen. A secondary issue is whether he'll pull a Renteria and shrivel in the spotlight -- but I do think that's a minor consideration.

Craig Hanson, I agree, has not done anything in MLB, and losing him doesn't much hurt the Sox for this year. Much -- don't forget, they have a thin bullpen. But he still had potential, and he had real trade value. Similarly for Moss: he was not expected to be good enough to be an everyday player for Boston, but he could well be an everyday player for someone else, and now they've lost him as a trading chip. (They could definitely have traded him for bullpen help.)

I think if Manny doesn't act up this year, this trade doesn't get made, and ignoring the pain-in-the-butt factor it makes the Sox worse. But given the situation, I think Theo made out reasonably well.

2008-07-31 15:19:18
73.   RIYank
So, what will the Dodgers do with five starting outfielders? Anybody have a guess?
2008-07-31 15:19:51
74.   Zack
64 65 Right, he HAS hit great against the Yanks. Those #s, of course, are also pretty much right in line with his career #'s, which would suggest that as his overall #s decline, so too will his #s against the Yanks
2008-07-31 15:24:09
75.   vockins
68 Boston traded Manny Ramirez, an OF with an OPS over .800 in the minors, a BA 2005 First Team All American, and $7 million for Jason Bay.

That sucks.

2008-07-31 15:24:50
76.   Chyll Will
71 Giggety-giggety-giggety! >;)
2008-07-31 15:26:07
77.   weeping for brunnhilde
76 Giggety-giggety-giggety!

:)

2008-07-31 15:28:19
78.   Sonya Hennys Tutu
Predictions:

1) Bay will wilt in Boston, disproving many of the extremely flawed statistical analyses which project everything from league transition to ballpark factors.

2) Manny will mash from here on out as he plays for a contract. Importantly, these will not be (remotely) comparable to the #'s he would have put up if he'd stayed in Boston.

3) The media will be all over Theo..."How the F could you deal Manny, who is mashing, for this Bay guy?!?" Answer: see #2.

Many is one of the one guys I've ever seen play about whom it could be said with great confidence that he could get a hit any time he wanted to as long as he cared to, in the moment. Lately, he hasn't cared. Now, he will.

That's another reason I don't buy Manny's "drop off" and/or projected drop off. For whatever reason, I'm quite sure that if he hadn't felt "disrespected" and had the "peace of mind" he clearly requires, we'd be seeing a Manny much closer to the guy we feared so deeply a few years ago (and admit it - the guy we still fear today if he cares enough to come to play).

Bay? I have enough friends in Pittsburgh to have a sense of what kind of player he is, what kind of clubhouse presence he is, and what kind of impact he'll have in Boston.

I'm not afraid.

2008-07-31 15:29:25
79.   Bagel Boy
68 They did good for having to do something. Still the Dodgers are paying no salary on Manny for two months for the price of LaRoche. Pirates came out worse.

74 Sure, except great hitters usually do worse against a team that's won 4 championships and 6 pennants during their career. Frank Thomas, the second best right-handed hitter of the same generation, drops 100 points in OPS against the Yanks in his career (629 PA). That Manny has held his own, at the true peak of a HOF hitter's abilities, says everything.

Again I don't see the same from Bay. Not even close.

2008-07-31 15:37:44
80.   Sonya Hennys Tutu
BTW, Anaheim on the other hand, scares me plenty.

And if anyone has great issue with what I said in 78 then take pleasure in knowing that I was the guy predicting Mussina's downfall after every solid start for the first 3 months of the season...

2008-07-31 15:40:21
81.   williamnyy23
So long Manny...don't forget to take that bat with you!

Sure, if everything goes right (Bay at his best) he could match would Manny would have put up at his worst. Projections aside, we all have all seen Manny's upside and Bay has never reached that level. Even at age-36, Manny has been a better hitter than Bay (higher OPS+ in a much better division of a better league). Then, you factor in things like adjustment, moving to a bigger stage, dealing with pressure, etc., and there are a lot of variables in the equation.

Also, Bay is not as cheap as you think. The Red Sox are paying all $7mn, so that's part of his cost. Either you can think of it as coming from this year's payroll, which means Boston could have afforded to spend $7mn extra next season, or you can allocate it to next year, which makes Bay a $14.5mn man.

Finally, the Red Sox are getting Bay for one more season (let's say at that $14.5mn), but I would still rather have a happy Manny in 2009 for $20mn.

2008-07-31 15:41:30
82.   Bagel Boy
Never noticed this before, but Manny has faced two Yankees pitchers the most of all pitchers he's faced - Moose with 111 PA and Pettitte with 86 PA (tied with Doc H). Let's just say they're happy tonight:

vs. Moose: .277 .342 .624 with 16 XBH in 111 PA
vs. AndyP: .416 .465 .675 with 12 XBH in 86 PA

by contrast, I'll bet Bay does slightly better against Doc, Manny was

vs. Halladay: .266 .314 .443 in 86 PA

More fun with Manny versus pitchers:
vs. Roger: .180 .317 .380 in 60 PA
vs. Wells: .288 .344 .458 in 64 PA

vs. Ponson: .420 .491 .560 in 57 PA
vs. Sturtze: .311 .392 .867 in 51 PA

vs. Kazmir: .159 .260 .273 in 50 PA

vs. Gordon: .194 .341 .444 in 44 PA
vs. Rivera: .211 .279 .289 in 43 PA

2008-07-31 15:44:15
83.   williamnyy23
70 I am not sure how great the pitching is in the NL because they were pacing ahead the AL in offense for most of the season (and the pitcher hits!)

Also, we have to remember that OPS+ is relative to each league. It means a lot more to have a 142 in the AL than a 135 in the NL if the differences in the league is as real as it seems.

2008-07-31 15:44:40
84.   Bagel Boy
Be sure to take a second look at that line for Mo against Manny. The divine cutter turns this generation's best hitter into a singles-hitting replacement level shortstop.
2008-07-31 15:46:34
85.   williamnyy23
Forget about Jason Bay...I am more concerned that the Yankees weren't able to find a replacement for Ponson.
2008-07-31 15:50:47
86.   Bagel Boy
85 Per PeteAbe - Hughes, Aceves, and Kennedy.
2008-07-31 16:04:45
87.   williamnyy23
86 Then let's see it...until then, Ponson is still putting the Yankees behind the 8-ball every 5th game.
2008-07-31 16:41:44
88.   nemecizer
62 RLYW in the house!

I can't be happier about the Manny trade. Make any argument you want, but Manny killed us. Bay is younger, a good hitter, and a good player for the Sox. But he is just not Manny Ramirez, just like Mike Lowell or JD Drew is not Manny Ramirez.

I am very happy about the way things worked out this week. I firmly believe that the Yankees got a bit better and the Red Sox a bit worse. In this division, and tied in the loss column, trades that give the Yankes plus one or two games, and trades that give the Sox minus one or two games can mean the difference between September and October baseball.

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