As a pennant-drive trade, it could make some sense. Hawkins has had success in the past and was very good last year; a team that desperately needed bullpen help down the stretch might figure that a change of scene (and league) could help bring some of that back.

Of course, that team isn't the Astros. They're not in a pennant race, they're not going to be in one, and I have no clue why Ed Wade is acting like they are. 12.5 games back against teams that have picked up Sabathia and Harden, the Astros get Hawkins and Randy Wolf (which is even more bizarrely inexplicable).

Oh, and the back end of their bullpen is actually pretty good. They really don't need help there.

It most certainly does. He may not have planned that way, but that's a great job. I share your concerns on Nady. Seems like they could have netted Bay with a bit more pitching. But as we're seeing with the Manny deal, the Bucs may have been insisting on a MLB corner OF in return.

"Replacing Farnsworth with the lefty Marte gives opponents yet another type of pitcher to contend with..."

I think this is the best analysis in this otherwise fantastic post. I always admired this quality in the Boston starting corps but this takes it to a new extreme. Of course you forgot about the divine cutter!

As for Melky, it about time he got sat or sent down. Actually it was that time two months ago. Give Christian or Gardner, or both, some starting nods, and/or sacrifice some defense with Damon in CF for a game or two a week? Seems like they could get the bats into a decent rotation by (hate to say it) benching the Melkman.

1) He's only a LF/DH. That wouldn't have helped the Yankees much.

2) His interleague stats are:
267 PA, .250/.312/.450

Bottom line: Jason Bay is not Manny Ramirez, and most especially against the Yanks. This trade can't happen fast enough. That said, I'd love to watch Manny for 162 games next year and hitting in front of A-Rod.

3 If you want to give up on Melky, fine, but why would Gardner deserve to be his replacement. Melky is almost as much an upgrade over Gardner as Pudge is over Molina.

Still, for now, platoon him with Christian. Throw in an odd Damon start, and Gardner is reduced to two starts a week. So it's not replacing Melky with Gardner. It's replacing Melky with Damon, Christian, and Gardner.

What's more, Melky is younger than Gardner and has pretty much the same minor league stats as Gardner, which again he acquired at a younger age.

Even at this point, Melky is a much better prospect than Gardner.

You miss the point. That's Gardner's profile with an OBP of .227.

"has pretty much the same minor league stats as Gardner"

Not in terms of plate discipline.
Minors:
Melky - 1555 PA, .294 AVG, .344 OBP, 108 BB, 214 K
Brett - 1407 PA, .287 AVG, .386 OBP, 224 BB, 285 K

Melky is a better prospect if he hits for power (and he's only one year younger). He hasn't been - not even close. Either he needs to get his swing right in the minors or he needs to be shipped out of town. Cause his patience isn't improving.

8 Sure, but then Gardner probably has better range.

My take on the Boston trade is this. Compared to Happy Manny, Jason Bay is a large step down. Yes, his numbers this year are not far off Manny's, but a lot of guys drop off when they move from the NL to the AL, esp. under the white hot spotlight.
But compared to the current situation, the trade is very good for the Sox. Theo found a guy who has some chance of replacing Man Ram in the line-up, and Bay is younger and cheaper next year than picking up the Manny contract would have been. If the trade goes through, I say Theo made the best out of a bad situation.

Nice family.

He was on a little league world series team that went to the final and ended up losing to Mexico when the team's superstar, Ashton White (son of heisman winner Charles) let a ball roll through his legs in the outfield. At least, that's how I remember it.

Just thought it was interesting.

Long after Nady is a fading memory in Yankee fans' collective conscious, I have a feeling Tabata will be 24 and starting to make a splash in Pitt.

I really hope this trade doesn't go down. So far, of all the folks who have posted since the rumors first starting flying, Zack and I are the only ones rooting against it.

Everyone else seems overjoyed at the Yanks not having to face "scary Manny" again. I don't see the Sox lineup suffering at all with Manny out and Bay in. With Ortiz and Manny, they've scored 4.86 R/G. When Ortiz was out, they scored 5.04 R/G. I'm not a stat wizard, I can't weight those numbers for home/road games, or the effect of interleague play (most of those games happened with Ortiz out), but for those who think that taking Manny out of the Boston lineup is going to hurt Boston (i.e., result in a loss of runs scored than if he was there), I say, I wouldn't guarantee it.

Nice job by the NY Post with the Pudgement Day headline. NY Daily News counters with Pudge Match. Good ones.

Top-shelf analysis, Cliff.
Way to break it down.

As for defense, Melky has put up very good range numbers at the major league level with a ++ arm. I don't think you can assume Gardner will be better.

While you can't say he is a bust, Tabata's stock has deservedly dropped. The Yankees are not contructed to wait five years for anything less than a sure thing. Between injuries, discipline problems and poor performance, Tabata is far from that.

That being said, one cannot ignore how bad Gardner looked. Yes, he has usually taken to new levels slowly and he has typically succeeded in his second crack at a higher level...but that has usually come in a second season at the new level. Plus, the team has righted the ship with this mini-run and they are now virtually tied for the WC lead-now is not the time when I would want to start experimenting with Gardner. They know what they have with Malky, and it's not good, but they don't know what they have with Gardner, and it could be even worse.

Finally, your plan would involve playing Gardner only a couple of games a week. I would rather let him keep developing and then start next season with him in CF. I do like your idea, however, of working CHristian (And even Damon on occasion) into the CF mix. It might be time to consider a Melky/Christian platoon, if the latter can handle CF OK (he has played there a good bit in MiL).

In the long run (or 'short-long run of the next couple of years), I am pretty skeptical that Gardner or Christian are any kind of solution. But I am increasingly of the opinion that Melky is not, either. William cautions against giving up on the Young Melky, but nothing in his profile over the last three years suggest to me that he will get any better.

I agree that Melky SHOULD be a better player then Gardner by a fair amount. Should be. But Melky has played so poorly, it took a terrible couple of weeks by Brett for Melky to hold his job. My issue is that Melky has lost all the plate discipline he had in 2006, while we know Gardner is better then we have seen.

I actually feel Gardner has more upside ONLY because Melky is so.... dopey. He continues to try and hack his way out of his slump. Without a serious approach adjustment, I don't think Melky gets any better. What hasn't been determined is (1) How good is Gardners first step in the OF? and (2) How good are is routes? With his speed, he has the potential to be a better defensive OFer then Melkman, as he can cover a lot more ground.

That's a legit worry. McCutchen worries me a bit too. Still, the former has been out-classed by Ajax and there are more where the latter comes from. And Nady shores up the OF for next year too. Without Pudge, I might have said the trade was a push or even a negative for the Yanks. With Pudge, the set crosses over into clear 'win' territory for me as the post analyzes very, very well.

13 Bay is a scary possibility as a longer-term upgrade. I was secretly hoping the Yanks would get him. Still, he's never seen the heat of the AL East. And if Theo has to give up prospects to get him, just because he had to move Manny, I don't see how it's a clear win for them. It may turn out that way, but it's not clear. And suffice it to say, I don't think Bay will be putting up this line against the Yanks - ever:

Career - .321 .411 .618 with 55 HR in 849 PA
2008 - .417 .523 .778 with 3 HR in 44 PA

It feels a bit like you're arguing just to argue. Melky's lack of patience has always been a problem. It is even moreso now because he's also not hitting for any power. That's his only clear upside from Gardner, except it doesn't exist right now. He needs to go to the minors to sort out his swing. Like I said, I'm not sugesting Gardner for Melky, but rather Garnder, Christian, and Damon for Melky.

Double ouch.

Rest up, Jorge.

This year has been a dissapointment, but a lot of the decline has been in his BA. Could that be partly because of luck? Maybe he does need to make an adjustment or two? All are possible. What I do know is Melky is only 23 years old. He plays great defense and has had significant stretches of hitting very well. I don't want to give up on that, but especially for a player like Gardner who at age-25 next season has very little projectable talent.

I agree that Nady could well revert to being 'just average'. I would hope that being surrounded by good hitters will take some of the pressure off and allow his to contribute.

I do wish we could have gotten Bay or Holliday. While Nady improves the team, it doesn't do much to improve our OF for 2009 and beyond. I don't think he will be an upgrade to an even aging and declining Abreu. I don't know what we can count on from JD next year, and with Melky shitting the bed, and Matsui's terrible defense, our OF is really in a shambles.

But I can see that Cashman is either going to wait for a huge deal, or just continue to chip away and make minor improvements. He has stayed on the 'youth bus', and has made no long term contract of money commitments. It is a little painful to see Tex and CC and other impact players go elsewhere, but this is still a transition year, and I am behind Cashman.

At the beginning of the year, we all said Po would be the hardest guy to replace. Now he is down. Wang being down is a huge blow. Matsui was having a great year and his loss as a DH hasn't been replaced. Phil and IPK far exceeded our expectations.... in the wrong direction. I think all in all considered, it's amazing we are as close as we are.

I hope Manny ends up in Florida, so he can go from half baked to fully baked, and that he never sees another PS again. For a guy who just made $168m, it's hard to imagine a more selfish player. Considering that Boston is in a hard fight for a PS berth, their desire to dump Manny just shows what a terrible influence he is on his team.
Considering