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Pete Abe had an interesting bit yesterday about Mariano Rivera's numbers in save situations and non-save situations.
Last night, I got a note from my pal Rich Lederer...
"I noticed where Mo lost his third game of the year despite putting together an ERA less than 1.00. How unusual is that combination? Well, here is a list of all the pitchers who have lost more than one game while posting an ERA under 1.00."
LOSSES YEAR L ERA 1 Tim Keefe 1880 6 0.86 2 Ferdie Schupp 1916 3 0.90 T3 Chris Hammond 2002 2 0.95 T3 Jonathan Papelbon 2006 2 0.92 T3 Dennis Eckersley 1990 2 0.61
Ferdie's ERA of .90 in 1916 was over 140 innings.
The following year he threw 272 innings, with a 1.95 ERA and went 21-7.
I love Baseballreference.com.
Ferdinand Maurice Schupp is a some baseball name.
This makes me wonder whether Girardi might be right to keep Mo on the shelf in a tie game in the eighth, or whatever -- those situations where it seems like we want our best pitcher in the game, but it's not 'traditional' to bring him in. Probably he's wrong, but it does make me wonder.
Finally, Red Sox Nation sounds a lot like us these days when it comes to bullpen. They're saying Papelbon is the only guy they trust. It's the RANG principle again! (For those who don't own my Greatest Hits album, that's Relievers Are Not Good.)
the fact that there is some discrepency in results is just due to small # of innings being considered.
"Mariano Rivera in non-save situations: 13 games, 14 innings, 12 hits, 4 earned runs, 1 walk, 15 strikeouts, 2.57 ERA, 2-3 record."
I'll take my chances with that most any tie game.
Why do you think he's been more effective this year than normal? His control seems (even) better - he hits the glove almost every pitch. When he got Trot Nixon looking to end that Mets game, it was one of the most perfect pitches I've ever seen.
The inability of professional, otherwise intelligent persons to understand the concept of sample size will be forever baffling.
If it were true that he can't pitch as well in non-save situations, that would be a serious knock on him. His job is to pitch as well as possible when he's asked to. Fortunately, I'm with mehmattski in seeing this as an artifact of small sample size.
Hm, I don't see that. His personal stats are on the line when it isn't a save situation, too -- in a tie game (as we recently saw) he's in much greater danger of getting the loss, for example, and of course his ERA is always on the line.
Sure, you could say it's a knock against him that he doesn't pitch as well in non-save situations. On the other hand, it would mean in save situations he pitches even better than we thought.
I agree, anyway, that it's very likely an artifact of a small sample.
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