Raines
_______HOF LINE

Dawson(Good runner, good defender, Awful OBP.)
Rice(product of Fenway and Evans and Boggs, not a good runner or defender)
Murphy(.265 BA, though OPS+ at 121, good defender, Average runner)

I think that Dawson/Rice/Murphy may be interchangable. I wouldn't vote for any of them.

If you want to compare him to the Babe Ruths of the world - or even the Dale Murphys - on the same basis as other power hitters, he'll lose every time. That wasn't Raine's game. His game was a driving, relentless, never let up, every day grinding kind of game. If he got on base, he'd take two and there was nothing you could do about it. He'd bug your pitcher, make contact to push guys over, sac bunt, do anything he needed to do to win. And yet, unlike other "intangible" HOFers, the numbers actually do speak of substance to his game. If you look at runs created for all current HOFers + those on the ballot, Raines checks in at #35, tied with Tony Gwynn and two runs behind Willie McCovey.

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/KrRJ

Incidentally, on that same list, you'll find Dawson at #46, Rice at #59 and Murphy way down at #72.

Say Goodby to Phil and Melky.

I'm sorry. Raines was very good for a long time, but not HOFer. An .813 carrer OPS for an OFer with under 200 HRs. 12 of 22 years, his OPS was under .800. I'm not sure how you can call him a GREAT player.

Getting into the HOF is based on numbers.
We NEED a formula that crunches stats and delivers some kind of score to help qualify if players are in/close to HOF credentials.

Preventing runs from scoring is not easily broken down into components - you've got a pitcher and 8 other fielders. So just look at the other part.

To score runs you have to be on-base. Raines has an excellent career OBP - .385. He walked a ton (1330 career) - pretty remarkable for a guy with 170 career home runs, who never topped 20 in a single season. His SB success is amazing - 84.9% career (IIRC).

And if you really want to fixate on OPS, use an adjustment that gives more weight to OBP, because its more valuable than SLG. The adjustment should be (1.4*OBP)+SLG. In that case, Raines's career OPS is .964 - again, amazing for a guy with little home run power.

To put this another way, would you say Tony Gwynn is not a Hall of Famer? Ignore the 3000 hits - a counting stat - and tell me how Tony Gwynn was a better offensive player than Tim Raines. I think they are very comparable - Gwynn's high batting average and more doubles negated by Raines's walks and SBs vs CSs.

And OYF, there is already a formula that crunches stats and delivers some kind of score to help qualify if players are in/close to HOF credentials. Its Jay Jaffe's JAWS system - do a search on the Prospectus website (or Jay's own Futility Infielder) site for all the details.

If OPS is adjusted to give more value to OBP(which it should) then Raines looks better, and Dawson doesn't look quite as good. Also OPS+ is a better indicator than raw OPS as the average OPS increased as he went further along in his career.

There are several formulas(Blank Ink, Grey Ink, etc.) that many people use to determine if people are qualified for HOF, but the writers "know a HOF when they see one..." Whatever that means.

I agree that OPS is skewed in OBP, but I think (1.4*OBP)+SLG is too much. The problem is HITS are counted twice (in both OBP and SLG) but Walks are only counted once. So raher that multiple OBP, I would add an addition factor in for Walks.

If Ichiro = .400 OBP and .500 SLG, your formula gives him 1.4(.400) + 500 = 1.060

That would be more valuable then ARod at:
.350 OBP + .700 SLG = 1.050?

(Also: Imagine Bond's OPS using your formula! Giambi also looks MUCH better)

I have also seen as mOPS formula as: 2.2*(OBP) + ISO

I have been playing with:
xOPS = OBP + (BB/AB*1000*0.8) + SLG
The 0.8 assumes a WALK is 80% as good as a hit

_OPS: .810
mOPS: .978
xOPS: .930

So do we look at EqA and RC which both account for SBs and CSs?

Little Trivia: Mantle played on 2 bad legs his whole career, yet had a career SB% (153/38) of 80%. Pretty amazing

Black Ink: Batting - 20 (105) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 114 (176) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Black Ink is LEADING the league in various batting categories:
GreyInk is TOP 10 in the league in various batting categories:

Interesting stats, but should only be part of the 'formula'

Black Ink/Grey Ink is an important metric in that it quantifies a factor that (unduly) influences the voters. Several deserving HoF candidates are overlooked because they are overshadowed by slightly-better contemporaries, e.g.
- Blyleven (by Ryan)
- Trammell (by Ripken and Yount)

Raines will suffer from playing in the shadow of Ricky Henderson.

Hello? 2100 hits and 398 HR? Those were never particularly impressive HOF stats.

Roger looks ready for a fight. This is really quite a story. 75% of polled folk think he did steroids. His video statement left very little wiggle room. If he fights this and is innocent (can he be innocent?) that will blow the report out of the water.
Is he just going for the He said-She said defense?

Anyone concerned about Phil and Melky getting their bus tickets?

Anyone sober yet?

But maybe he'll find the real killer for OJ.

This is also why the "McNamee would have been in big trouble if he lied to the Feds, so he had to have told the truth" argument fails on its face - how could the Feds prove McNamee was lying?

Sigh.

19 I don't have the research, but I know Rob Neyer said that a number of his readers had looked into the matter, and the proper number to weight OBP by was 1.4. If its really right, I bet Tom Tango can verify it: tangotiger.net

"Update: The [Prior] contract [to San Diego] is for a $1 million base salary with incentives that bring it up to $3 million."

That's one I wish we took a flyer on.

28 MFD, I believe that 1.4 is actually Tango's conversion factor. Merry Christmas to you too buddy.

Election to the Hall of Fame requires a player to perform both at a very high level and for a long time, so JAWS identifies a player's peak using his seven best WARP scores (for this exercise, WARP refers exclusively to the adjusted-for-all-time version, WARP3). Effectively, we double-count more of a player's best seasons, an appropriate strategy given what we know about pennants added and the premium value of star talent: individual greatness can have a non-linear effect on a team's results both in the standings and on the bottom line.

The career and peak WARP totals for each Hall of Famer and candidate on the ballot are tabulated and then averaged [(Career WARP + Peak WARP) / 2] to come up with a JAWS score. JAWS averages for the enshrined are calculated at each position to provide a baseline for comparison, but the lowest-ranked player at each position (and four pitchers) are omitted before that calculation. Invariably these are Veterans Committee selections who lag far behind the pack, lowering the bar with scores that might be one-third of the position leader.

Oh, and get well soon, Will. We don't want to be calling you "Caught-his-death-of-Chyll".

31 Years ago, my friend's mom gave me a couple of rum candies when I was really sick. You're absolutely right, I don't remember much after that except feeling really warm and fuzzy for a while. I'm no drinker, but reading about Abe Lincoln, he used to tell the story about the drunk who swore off of liquor and became a temperance man. Later he to the bar (apparently that's all men ever did back in those days) and ordered lemonade... as time went on, he got sadder and sadder until finally he said to the bartender, "Mike, if you slipped a little whiskey in my lemonade unbeknownst of me, I don't think I'd mind..."

And that's how Mike's Hard Lemonade came into being >;)

33 Brings a new perspective on my name, I admit, but don't worry: by sheer force of me I can upgrade this to walking pneumonia in no time >;)