Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
I could hear the groans across the tri-state and beyond when I read this.
eric gagne just signed a one year deal for $10M.
it could be a lot worse...
Also, by signing Hawkins, it shows the Yankees aren't willing to commit to a long-term deal for questionable middle relievers, which is a good thing. Finally, by swapping Viz out for Hawkins, the Yankees will also get a supplemental round draft pick.
I think Hawkins for one year + a draft pick isn't such a bad deal...in fact, I think it's a pretty good one.
Interesting-looking guy though. He's got that looooong neck. Always reminded me a little bit of a horse.
Hell, I'd have been up for signing Gagne too (the stuff was still there), though not necessarily @ $10 mil.
For the record, I don't think Hawkins will be any good either.
And yes, I know I said yesterday that he was awful, and now I'm walking away from that comment, so who knows, by tomorrow I might think he's Mariano Rivera.
Speaking of arbitration, Cot's Contracts' "unofficial" arbitration list includes Bruney. Will the Yankees non-tender him to clear another roster spot (for A-Rod or Mo)?
As mentioned, Hawkins' low walk totals are nice. The 3.06 GB to FB ratio last year is especially appealing, though potentially a fluke as it isn't really in line with his career numbers.
Without checking the splits, it seems to me that the Yankees always beat him up pretty good, which may be coloring the some people's opinions. He's basically always around league average or a little better. And on a one year deal, if he stinks, you cut him.
486 Batters Faced
Last year, lefties slugged .443 off him. The year before: .505
Last year he had an unheard of (outside of CMW) G/F ratio of 3.05. If that remains true, we're going to be hearing a lot of Pastadiving Jeter a lot- check out his Fielding Independent Pitching, which the last two years has been half a run above his ERA.
The WHIP of 1.5 that Sctheeve cited is about right for two of the last three seasons. Sure he doesn't walk many but gives up a TON of hits. I'm envisioning a lot of runners inherited on second base scoring on a groundball through the middle.
I'd rather have Andy Hawkins.
He has had some excellent years in the BP, and if Girardi is as good at building a pen as I think he will be, Hawkins can be a big asset.
Rivera would set a record for most 2-inning appearances by a closer!
Anyway, how would you all feel about signing Bartolo Colon to a one-year incentive loaded contract (if he would take it). He's not a type-A FA (right?) and could help lighten the innings load on the kids. And he has considerable upside to go with his considerable injury risk. Maybe the opening day/first third of the season's rotation should be Wang, Pettitte, Moose, Colon, Kennedy, to keep the innings down on Sir Phil and Sir Joba. Then Phil & Joba come up to replace Moose & Colon as they suck/get injured, and Moose can spot Kennedy later in the year to keep him fresh. Pretty distasteful to start with a rotation designed for mediocrity, but I really worry about all those innings we'd need from the kids.
Wang - good for 200 innings
Pettitte - same, though age/injury more of a concern
Mussina - "good" for ~180 innings but those innings might suck
Hughes - good for ~140 innings
Chamberlain - good for ~140 innings
Kennedy - good for ~190 innings
The trouble is finding ways of keeping Hughes & Chamberlain's innings down. If I was in charge, and I could get Moose to agree, I think I'd open the season with this rotation:
I'd have Hughes on a loose* 5 inning/start cap to start the year, and put Moose in for multiple innings in relief. Chamberlain, as 5th starter, would throw less innings because he'd have fewer starts, and one could also implement a first-half innings cap with him, and if the timing worked out right Moose could be the innings eating reliever for him too. In the second half, if all is going well, the innings caps can be relaxed and you can try stretching the kids out a bit more. Depending on how the farm is doing and the needs of the 'pen, it might also make sense to skip a start or two and plug in the 6th/7th guy on the depth chart (Horne? Igawa? Rasner?)...
* - by loose I mean that # pitches and the stress level of said pitches should be important too. If he's at 90 high-effort pitches after 4 innings, pull him and bring in Moose.
But I think Mussina would hate that, and complain. A lot.
No teams have all of their starters make it through a season unscathed, why should the Yanks be the exception?
If one could sign Colon to a 1-year deal and stash him in AAA as a "break in case of emergency" sort of thing... um, ok. But I don't want to start the year with him in the rotation and quality like Hughes or Joba in the minors.
Besides, would you rather have three years of Viz instead of one of Hawkins plus a supplemental drat pick? What would you have preferred? Use all youngsters to fill out the pen (weren't we anxious to have Bruney and Henn take a more prominent role last season? look how that turned out).
"Already high, expections for Phil Hughes has reached a new level"
32 In the abstract, the Hawkins signing is blah to me, but in context, its hard to argue that 3 years of Viz are preferable. And that draft pick is very nice.
Besides, its not like the Yanks haven't cut bait before on a mediocre middle reliever, even if they owed them $3.5M. I'm thinking of Mike Stanton and his $4M salary in 2005, DFA'd late that June.
When the team has such an average defense, it's a combination of limiting all three fielding-independent results that matters. While Hawkins seems reliable on the HR and BB front, I worry about the lack of strikeouts. I really think they could be better provided by decent strikeout numbers of Britton, Albaladejo, and Ohlendorf.
I agree it's a better deal than signing Viz to three years. But it looks like the Yankees might be making that mistake anyway with a different mediocre reliever- Ron Mahay.
Not a lot of Yankee News this time of year. Maybe someone can review ARods tax returns or check Cynthia's wardrobe for leather goods.
These writers don't bother me a bit. I don't think they bother Phil. I hope Phil is a solid #3 or better this year, and a solid #2 or better for a decade after that.
Or maybe, we need a Phil Hughes facts page (hat tip to Chuck Norris). Like Phil Hughes curveball breaks so hard it can tunnel through the earth to Australia.
There IS a huge difference between historically awful, which a BP of Bruney, Igawa, Henn, Veras, etc may be, and just bad/poor, which has Mahay and Hawkins in it.
I'm high on Melancon (especially) and Humberto & Cox, but they'll probably need another 6mo to heal & maybe another 6mo-1yr after that to get ready. Vet stopgaps on short contracts are the best way to bridge.
Sure, if Giambi is playing first base then all bets are off, but otherwise I think the Yankees have good hands out there. A-Rod and Cano are both excellent at their positions, and Jeter is - well - let's not go there (dead horse alert). I don't believe the Yankees have quite settled their first base situation yet. I think Giambi is gonna be the full time DH (assuming Matsui is traded), which leaves open a spot for a first baseman. If Minky - excellent defense, crappy bat. If not - then who knows.
There is potential there for above average defense. Not best in league, but not bumblers either.
Robinson Cano- .883 (13th in the majors)
Derek Jeter- .777 (23rd of 25 SS)
Alex Rodriguez- .662 (17th of 21 3B)
The X factor is Shelley Duncan, who doesn't have a whole lot of numbers to go by. Giambi has not had enough innings to qualify since THT started keeping track, but he's had the follwing seasons:
2004: .818 in 375 innings (would have been #1 in the majors)
2005: .722 in 560 innings (would have been 15th of 17)
2006: .695 in 480 innings (would have been dead last by a huge margin)
So I think it's safe to say that, as measured by THT's Zone Rating, the Yankees have an average to below-average infield defense. As for handling ground-ball pitchers like CMW, consider that the Yankees "Team Defensive Efficiency," literally the number of non-homer batted balls turned into outs- was .696: 14th in the majors. So, overall, the Yankees were pretty average at turning batted balls into outs.
Further, consider that Wang's BABIP last year was .297. That's pretty average as well... perhaps if he had a better defense behind him, he'd have a much lower ERA.
So let me revise my statement to read:
"Mattpat might kill me for saying this, but looking just at K-rate, BB/9, and HR/9, I'd be really surprised if there's a heck of a lot of difference between Ron Mahay and Kei Igawa over the next 3 years."
My opposition to signing Mahay is in giving him a 3 year deal, because IMO, the Yanks do not need a lefty reliever so badly as to be paying Ron Mahay when he is 38 in 2010. And, the overwhelming evidence shows that multi-year contracts to middle relievers are a huge waste.
If they sign Mahay to a one-year deal like Hawkins', the Yanks will get no beef from me.
Kent Mercker and Glendon Rusch should be available too!
But I completely agree that three years is a terrible idea, not just for Mahay but for virtually any reliever.
MY FAVORITE HAWKINS!
Welcome, LaTroy, my-not-least-favorite Hawkins!
Surely, for those reasons, he deserves to not be your most-hated Hawkins. What about the short-lived TV series starting James Stewart?
"i hate the yankees and red sox. they have so much money to spend that if they see some other team about to get a good player, they get in there and offer a bit more to get em. Yes, the yankees are terrible and i think Hawkins will help them, but they could also have easily found somebody better, they just wanted to screw the rox"
Yes, the Yankees hate Jesus and thus the Rockies. The only reason they went after Hawkins was to fuck them both over.
Clearly, the best way to judge a relief pitcher (or any pitcher, really) is to look at his components: HR, K, BB... these things stay pretty constant no matter the environment. ERA+ isn't like EqA or something that puts together all components into one number- that would be FIP... and Hawkins has been very average.
as for 64 and the Yankees' defense: THT calls it average. BP calls it average. Traditional scouts call it average. As for Pinto's model, he's admitted that teams with good offenses tend to score better, since the model is based on the visiting team's defense:
There's everything that's telling me the Yankees are pretty much average, and then there's Pinto telling me that he's got a flawed system saying the Yankees are above average. Seems fishy to me...
Barry Hawkins (born 1979), English snooker player
Benjamin Hawkins (1754-1816), American farmer, statesman, and delegate to the Native American Creek people
Chris Hawkins (born 1975), English DJ and radio presenter
Coleman Hawkins (19041969), American jazz tenor saxophonist
David R. Hawkins (born 1927), American mystic, teacher, author and psychiatrist
Erick Hawkins, modern dancer
Francesca Hawkins, Trinidadian television news presenter
Jack Hawkins (1910-1973), British film actor
Jeff Hawkins (born 1957), American scientist, founder of Palm Computing, Handspring and Numenta
Jennifer Hawkins (born 1983), Australian model, Miss Universe winner 2004 and TV personality
Jim Hawkins, English radio presenter
Sir John Hawkins (1532-1595), English merchant, navigator, slave trader, shipbuilder and pirate
John Hawkins (geologist), Cornish traveller, geologist and FRS
Justin Hawkins (born 1975), English rock musician with The Darkness
Kyle Hawkins (born 1970), American lacrosse coach, gay rights activist
LaTroy Hawkins, (born 1972), baseball player
Sir Richard Hawkins (c.15621622), English seaman, vice-admiral and Member of Parliament
Robert A. Hawkins, of the Westroads Mall massacre.
Ronnie Hawkins (born 1935), American rock singer and songwriter
Sally Hawkins (born 1976), British actress
Screamin' Jay Hawkins (1929-2000), American singer and entertainer
Sophie B. Hawkins (born 1967), American singer and songwriter
Tom Hawkins (footballer) (born 1988), Australian Football player
Wynn Hawkins (born 1936), Major League Baseball pitcher
In Fiction, Hawkins may also refer to:
Hawkins (TV series), American television series starring James Stewart
D.L. Hawkins, a character on the 2006 NBC TV Series Heroes
Jim Hawkins, a fictional character in the book Treasure Island
Robert Hawkins, a character on the 2006 CBS TV Series Jericho.
Objects named Hawkins also refer to:
What K rates, etc. do tell you is whether or not the success is sustainable. Normally, someone who strikes out as few as Hawkins does will not have prolonged success. Clearly, however, some pitchers get by. Wang is obviously one of them. Hawkins has proven that he can be between average and outstanding despite his low K rates. For a one-year contract way below market value, it's probably worth it to see if he can continue that success for just one more year, especially when you considered that the most active member of the pen is now gone.
This whole post could be rendered useless, however, by advanced relief pitcher metrics, ones I don't know enough about and don't care to look up right now.
For this reason I think that "inherited runners scored" should be a good stat by which we can judge relievers. However, none of my favorite sites (BP, THT, BR) track this, so I can't make any comparisons.
Is Matsui + Kennedy + someone like Hilligoss that ridiculous for Cain or Lincecum?
I like the adjusted metric of Adjusted Runs Prevented, which IIRC, takes inherited runs and bequeathed runs (ex: the guys Hawkins leaves on base for Farnsworth to clean up) into account.
77 Sanchez is (was?) a well-regarded pitcher despite his otherwise poor numbers.
57 i likes me some coleman hawkins ... i just likes me the memories of a couple of junior-high dances more
70 dammit! jay was supposed to be on there, let's slide him in after jack
73 don't you mean it could be rendered "mute"?
The money quote?:
"Another baseball executive likened Hawkins to Kyle Farnsworth, in terms of his fastball."
That's all ye know on earth, and all ye need to know.
I'm going to miss the old sourpuss when he's gone.
God, remember when he barked at Joe to go sit the fuck down?
That was hilarious.
Hawkins ranked 4th on the Rockies in ARP, with 9.4. For comparison, the closest 2007 Yankee reliever was... Luis Viscaino, with a 11.0 ARP. Viz had more innings pitched, was slightly better (!) at keeping inherited runners from scoring, but got luckier when it came to his bequeathed runners.
Mo lead the team with 19.4, Joba racked up 11.5 in only 24 innings. 4th on the team behind Viz was Chris Britton, with a 5.5 ARP in only 12 2/3 innings.
Farnsworthless = -4.8.
Edwar = -10.5 (oof).
Sean Henn brings up the rear with a -14.3.
Anyway, I don't think Hawkins is going to be good. He's basically Vizcaino, for 1 year instead of three. I hope we see more of Britton.
I like Mussina. But he's not the most flexible guy in the world.
I'm with william and wsporter ... see no downside to this signing, with a one year deal and a draft pick for Viz.
I'd also agree with those saying our D is average to not-quite, last year and projecting forwards. In fact, thinking about it, 'average' might be pushing it. Where does anyone see excellence, let alone a (deserved) Golden Glove? Is Melky -that- good? Doubt it.
And will anyone join me in urging the Mets to get a move on already and chase Santana properly? There seems to be some agreement here, at least a majority, that we didn't want the Hughes/Melky/fairly-warm bodies deal to go down, with the lunatic payroll that would ensue, but surely I can't be alone in dreading the Bosox with two of the 3 or 4 likely Cy Young pitchers? I say we start a petition! Run him out of the league!
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