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2007-11-14 22:31
by Cliff Corcoran

The last time the Yankees had an open casting call for third basemen, I spent three weeks poring over the team's options only to have Alex Rodriguez swoop down and render it all meaningless. A bit gun shy from that experience, I'd held off pouring over the Yankees' third base options this offseason until yesterday morning. Thankfully it only took a few hours for Rodriguez to strike me moot once again.

After an exciting day in which rumors slowly coalesced into truths, we were left with the knowledge that Rodriguez and the Yankees are hammering out the details on a ten-year deal worth something in the area of $275-280 million. SI.com's Jon Heyman, who broke the news of Rodriguez opting out, seems to have the best inside info as of this writing. One key detail is that, though Rodriguez initiated talks with the Yankees without his agent, Scott Boras is indeed involved in hammering out the details (something the union made sure of). From Heyman:

A 10-year megadeal for about $280 million -- yet another record contract for A-Rod -- is expected to be completed in the next day or two. There is a great deal of optimism that an accord can be struck soon, as the sides were down to discussing incentive monies and contract language, an indication they possibly were in the final stages of negotiation. But while an agreement seemed extremely likely, both sides cautioned late Wednesday that it had yet to be completed. The new contract is likely to include an unprecedented incentive package that could put the total package at well over $300 million.

The Yankees' spin on this sudden about-face was that they didn't go back on their word not to pursue Rodriguez after he opted out. Rather, Rodriguez came crawling back to them. In the words of Hank Steinbrenner, "Alex reached out to us. He wants to be a Yankee. . . . he made clear he's willing to sacrifice something." What that something is remains unclear.

The best guess at what's going on in Rodriguez's head that I've read thus far is Sweeny Murti's take on his blog (of course, Sweeny botches it up with an addendum that wildly overstates Mariano Rivera's value both past and present). As for the contract, Baseball Prospectus's Joe Sheehan, writing prior to much of the above action, sums it up well (bear in mind that BP actually has a stat that measure players' value in dollars, so the following assessment of Rodriguez's worth is most likely based some on actual number crunching.):

If you can sign Alex Rodriguez, you do so; he's worth somewhere around the $30 million a year he's supposedly asking for to a team that's on the brink of contention right now. His decline phase may well be worth that kind of money as well, given where the marginal value of a win is headed, and the additional revenues that Rodriguez can generate as he chases down some of the game's most hallowed records.

Me, I'll wait until the deal is final and I hear Rodriguez speak before adding my two cents. I just hope that the new contract doesn't include any of those pesky opt-out clauses, at least not for the first three-to-five years.

Comments (241)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-11-15 00:55:57
1.   sabernar
David Pinto also did some estimating and put ARod's annual worth at about $27M.
2007-11-15 02:03:11
2.   Shaun P
MLB took in around $6B in revenue last year. One half of one percent of $6B is $30M. Seems about right to me.

Incentive clauses pushing the total value up don't bother me. After all, that's not guaranteed money, which is the important part. (A lesson many have never learned in regards to the NFL.) And while we know about what the Yanks' original extension offer was, we have no idea what (if any) incentives it might have eventually included. To think it would have had none is foolish, given what A-Rod and Boras have asked for before.

0 "I just hope that the new contract doesn't include any of those pesky opt-out clauses"

Here here!

2007-11-15 02:06:58
3.   joe in boston
First of all, congrats to Alex, Cliff, et al for a great run at the Banter. The first place I go is here.

Arod ? Well, I really wish he had come to the Yanks 2 months ago and agreed on a deal. He would have won over every Yankee fan then. He would have won over the entire city ! Now ? Well I realize I just root for the laundry as Seinfeld once said, but I do like to "like" my players too. Anyway - at least it looks like we have a 3rd baseman with some pop right ?!

2007-11-15 02:39:56
4.   joejoejoe
Sweeny Murti's take on Rivera IS weird. The Yankees are offering him 40% more than any other player at his position and a 3-year deal. There is no more negotiating to be done by the Yankees unless it's with themselves. I love Rivera but the only options left are A) sign the deal or B) decide you want to play someplace else for $10 million less over the life of the contract.
2007-11-15 03:25:24
5.   Yankee Fan In Boston
0 "I'll wait until the deal is final and I hear Rodriguez speak before adding my two cents."

i tossed and turned all night, wrestling with the two sides of this. i didn't drift off to sleep until i came to a similar conclusion. if rodriguez seems sincere (sigh), the contract is somewhat fair, and boras is belittled, i'll feel better about this.

i'm trying to keep an open mind, but darn it, the opt out announcement stung.

2007-11-15 04:16:29
6.   williamnyy23
As one who fully supported Arod in his first four years, I am surprised that my feelings are mixed.

On the one hand, I realize that Arod is a good bet to be among the top-10 hitters in the game for at least next five seasons, and provides a unique combination of power/speed/defense/durability/motivation. Outside of Albert Pujols, Arod is exactly what the current Yankees lineup needs.

On the other hand, however, I was warming up to the idea of a retrun to normalcy. If Arod does return, it will ensure that next season will be another Arod/media circus. I can just hear Jeter muttering in his sleep now..."we, we, we, we, we!"

As for the cost, $27mn doesn't bother me, although 10 years will ensure that the second half of this deal is a bear. Of course, you have to judge it in the context of economics and the Yankees stand to see a significant acceleration in revenues over the next 10 years. Also, if incentives and backloading (which I suspect is how Arod will make up for the $21mn lost from Texas) are employed, it could make the deal even more affordable.

Also, you have to seriously consider the opportunity gain involved...by signing Arod, the Yankees have less pressure to move their stud prospects (although I'd still keep tabs on Cabrera as the 1B of the future and Santana).

In summary, I think the deal will work from an economic (it can't be worse than Giambi's contract has been) and on-field perspective, although I am a little wary of the continuing distractions that Arod's presence will bring.

2007-11-15 04:20:15
7.   williamnyy23
Here's a fun thought...maybe Arod will officially announce a deal on the conference call held after he is awarded the MVP?
2007-11-15 04:41:33
8.   OldYanksFan
I think we make too much of the opt-out. Mo and Po's contract were up, so we don't blink an eye at them. They both became FAs, they both picked our pockets pretty good. I guess that makes them human. But ARod's contract was 'up' too, if he wanted it to be. He had a contract year, winning the MVP. He wanted a deal that carried him for the rest of his career. So indeed, his contract was 'up'.

So what now? Well, unlike a quote from him some years ago, a guess with a 10 year contract, he's serious about getting the HR record. And many others too. What a shame for us.

Since he will play 10-14 of his 20-24 year, 3 team career as a Yankee, no doubt he goes to the HOF as a Yankee. What a shame for us.

MCab was on his way to $20m, and more in the future. He was 10 lbs away from 1B/DH. And he would have cost us what? 4 Kids including one of the triad? And if we did that and then really needed Santana, what would that cost, or would we have had the kids to trade?

And If ARod did NOT opt out, we would be doing this in 2010 anyway. And which really shows he wants to be a Yankee more? Keeping a 3 year contract in place, or crawling back and losing a few bucks to make a 10 year commitment? It seems to me that Boras made a mistake (with ARod following his lead), and ARod QUICKLY made up for it when he saw himself in another uniform.

I have no doubt he could have gotten 5$/160.

Now ARod will truly be the face of the team. Jetes may be captain, and Jorge is our soul, by Alex will be our face. He came back to play with Jeter, back to NY, back to his legacy.

Yeah, I think he's overpaid, especially towards the end, but so is Mo, Po and Jeter... and maybe Phil and Joba will be too. To me, a big part of our money is keeping our kids and our stars. It's a real luxury. Unlike Nomar, Pedro and JD, our family stays intact.

By the way... one of the incentives ARod insisted on, is that when he hits his 50th HR of each year, he can sleepover at Jetes house.

2007-11-15 04:59:11
9.   Just fair
If this is indeed finalized in the next couple of days, I will be glad to have Alex back. But to continually hear and read that he had to "crawl back" to the Yankees truly makes me want to throw up a bit in my mouth. The fuss over his initial contract was overwheming. I am curious to see what the reaction is to his new contract. For the bargain basement price of @275 million. What a world.
2007-11-15 05:03:59
10.   OldYanksFan
6 I confess William, I have similar feelings to some degree. But at least the circus isn't a 'fat circus', a 'lazy circus' or a 'DWI circus'. And it is not really ARod. He wore headphones all last year. It's the press and their doing, in their never ending zeal to create a story where there isn't any.

But let's be honest. The Steinettes love it when the Mets or Red Sox win a big game, but it's a Yankee that is getting all the news. I mean the Sox won the WS this year, but who knew? ARod was the story.

I guess it goes with the territory. ARod was near perfect last year (as far as the press was concerned) but he still hit 129 on RLYW's cover counter. I assume wifey's 'Fuck You' wardrobe will go away. He is now (or will be) a Yankee for life, so maybe a little of the din will die down.

Yean, ARod will always seek out the red light, and chances are he will still have part of his foot in his mouth. That's who he is. But he is THE superstar. This level of fame is not easy to have. Barry doesn't handle it well, and neither did Ted.

The truth is as Yankee fans, it's time for US to stop buying all the crap: unclutch; greedy; losesr; anchor; bad chemistry; etc. WE should not be buying into this. It's all bullshit. It's all yellow journalism. He's just a human being with faults like the rest of us. He ain't perfect, he ain't Jeteresque. He works like a dog, takes care of himself, extends himself to the younger ballplayers and he plays this game right.

Next year, he will pass Mickey Mantle on the HR list. Think of that. And maybe the Babe. And maybe Barry too.

And we get to watch.
How cool is that?

2007-11-15 05:04:35
11.   sabernar
Everyone who is saying that ARod will be overpaid during the last half of his contract are forgetting something: his chase for the multitudes of records will be worth a LOT of money. Will he still be hitting 50 HR when he's 40? Probably not, but the sold out stadiums at home and on the road are worth a lot.
2007-11-15 05:09:43
12.   Simone
If the leaked details of this contract with unprecedented incentives given by the Yankees are true, then despite the Yankee and NY media spin about him crawling back, Alex Rodriguez won this negotiation hands down. The Yankees have essentially have done the Jason Giambi deal all over again. Again they have no competition for the player and they make an outrageous offer. The market determines a player's worth not statistical calculations.
2007-11-15 05:19:05
13.   Ben
Simone, you're right about the market setting the price. But there's also what it's worth to the Yankees, which helps set the price.

I once bought a relic at a flea market. It cost 50 bucks becuase the vendor swore it was from the 19th century. Now I don't know if it was or wasn't, but frankly, I didn't care. Even if it had been made a month earlier, to me, it was worth 50 bucks. So I didn't care what it was really worth on the market.

Arod might be worth whatever the Yankees are likely to pay him. He probably has different values to different teams, market aside.

2007-11-15 05:25:37
14.   Yankee Fan In Boston
11 most star players are overpaid as their career winds down. if pay was strictly based on performance, many young guys would be rolling in cash, as opposed to pulling league minimum salary or somewhere thereabouts.
2007-11-15 05:35:19
15.   Ramone
I have no problem with A-Rod coming back. I always suspected that he wanted to. My recollection is that he always hedged his statements about opting out, not about being Yankee.. And Boras convinced him that opting-opting out.

That said, I actually think that the Yankees and A-Rod could turn this whole thing around and make it into a "Paris Hilton learns from her prison experience" moment if they play the cards right.

First, once the deal is done, A-Rod should make a public apology to the fans. He should say, point-blank, that he was wrong to opt-out. He should NOT blame Boras: "Boras is my agent. I take full responsibility." But say how he was willing to play for significantly less than he could have gotten, just because he wanted to remain a Yankee.

A-Rod should acknowledge the money that the Yankees lost from Texas. He should say that that was money that the Yankees could have paid existing Yankees or used for more pitching and that he wanted it to come out of his pocket because he was the one who screwed up by opting-out. He's not saying it because he wants anyone to feel sorry for him for "sacrificing" -- he understands that the average fan thinks all athletes are over-paid -- but that he wants people to know important it was that he not hurt the team with his contract.

Then Hank should come out and say "We explained to Alex that we had been prepared to make him an offer that was significantly greater than this one and if he wanted to be a Yankee all the money that we would lose from Texas and the payroll tax would have to come off the table. He agreed."

Win-win-win. A-Rod looks like he learned something. The Yankees look like they didn't cave. And Boras gets to maintain the illusion that the market is stronger than it is.

12 I disagree. Boras could never have gotten $350 million. But an increase over A-Rod's last contract from the Angels or Dodgers? Sure.

2007-11-15 05:38:16
16.   monkeypants
12 It's tough to invoke pure market theory when talking MLB salaries--it's simply not a pure market environment.

As for the Giambi comparison--maybe yes, maybe no. First of all, as I recall, the Yankees DID have competition for Giambi: the A's, who offered him a very lucrative 6-year deal. That pushed the Yankees to offering a seventh year. Second, and more importantly, A-Rod has been and will be a much better player than Giambi. Even in his prime, Giambi was one of a number of slugging 1B/DH types (albeit the best for a couple of seasons). But A-Rod's combination of talents is much harder to find; moreover, he is a much better conditioned athlete than Giambi, and he holds out the promise of setting records (which in turn means attendance and money for the club). Thus, overall, A-Rod is worth much more than Giambi ever was. So maybe the market has spoken after all.

2007-11-15 05:42:15
17.   Alex Belth
By the time Alex gets his third MVP award on Monday, his deal will have already been announced. Or maybe they'll do it as a two-for-one jamboree.

Many Yankee fans I've spoken to have mixed feelings about Rodriguez's return. Not me. Or at least the only thing that gives me pause for concern would be a future in which he starts to break down rapidily. An oft-injured Rodriguez would bring even more bashing than he's received over the past few years and that would be a drag. Ten years is risky, no matter how healthy Rodriguez has been thus far. But I suppose if he can stay healthy for six of those ten years, it'll be okay.

Regardless of his personality and how he handles things (his A Rodness, as a friend put it), the Yanks are getting back the reigning MVP. The team is better with him. And that's a beautiful thing.

2007-11-15 05:44:30
18.   Yankee Fan In Boston
17 "his A rodness" is a term that i predict i will be using often.
2007-11-15 05:49:27
19.   Knuckles
I was pissed at Rodriguez for the past coupla weeks, but not entirely surprised given his and his agent's histories. And now this whole thing boomerangs and he's headed back to the Bronx. Fine by me. To continue to beat the phrase to death, I root for laundry, like many of the other Banterers. The money, I could care less about. It's not mine. The Yanks will continue to swim in cash, and MLB will as well, what with all the new ways they're finding to separate their (willing) fans from their money. A run at Bonds' record in a few years time won't hurt either.

But now I just have 2 requests for A-Rod.
1) Work your ass off.
2) Keep your damn mouth shut and think before you act.

#1 is obviously more important than #2, but I'd prefer to be talking about IPK's strong start to the season next May, rather than the tabs' coverage of Alex, Melky, Robbie, and a gaggle of orphaned, one-legged, syphillitic, French-Indo-Chinese-Romanian hookers leaving a Waffle House at 3am in Kansas City.

2007-11-15 05:49:59
20.   wsporter
It's a long way from and we haven't waited particularly long but I'm ready to "kill the fatted calf" and do the dance. How could we not want that guy back in the lineup? He's still capable of producing offensive stats of historic proportion and I believe as our pitching improves we will be capable of winning with him rather than in spite of him.

Ten years is forever in a baseball sense but for right now as I said I'm forgiving and forgetting and happily moving on.

2007-11-15 06:01:17
21.   Sliced Bread
0 "I just hope that the new contract doesn't include any of those pesky opt-out clauses."

Not me. I hope the newly forged iron-clad prenup includes all sorts of outs for both sides.
Overall, this ARod-Yankee affair has not been a great marriage.
I'd say it's been a volatile mess of a relationship at times. But look, they're keeping the family together for the sake of the kids now. Is that what this is?

Don't get me wrong. I'm glad ARod's coming back, I've mostly liked the guy, and been in awe of his talent, but I'm not kidding myself. This is like remarrying Liz Taylor in so many melodramatic ways.
That's it. The Yanks are Richard Burton to ARod's Liz Taylor. Oy. Such a Hollywood love story. Can't live with you and your drinking/ can't live without you, you scoundrel. Let's get married and divorced... twice!

If indeed the Yanks and ARod are going to re-make Burton & Taylor's "Divorce His, Divorce Hers," better that they're reunited at the altar now, mindful of where the exits are.

2007-11-15 06:04:04
22.   Levy2020
Since we're all talking about reactions, I'd like to add that I'm a scorned woman until the deal is OFFICIAL.
2007-11-15 06:15:21
23.   Sliced Bread
OK, ARod as Liz Taylor isn't the hippest of metaphors, but I'm enjoying it so much right now I might start calling him "National Velvet."

It's a pretty cool nickname for a top notch cleanup hitter, if you think about it.

2007-11-15 06:16:45
24.   wsporter
22 Levy given what I think I know of scorned women I believe that position makes a lot of sense. :-)
2007-11-15 06:19:20
25.   rbj
I'm happy (if) he's coming back. I like having highly talented, productive players on my Yankees. Especially if it only costs $ and not blue chip prospects. As for all the sturm and drang surrounding him, I can just block that out in the morning paper, if I can read about another Yankee win.
2007-11-15 06:26:02
26.   OldYanksFan
12 You sound bitter. I don't know if Mo and Po are 'winners', or if the Yankees are 'losers'. A negotiation has no value in itself, it is simply a means to an end. No one is holding a gun to ARods head or the Yankees head. Unlike Mo and Po, there are plenty of fans who are happy to see ARod go elsewhere.

As I said, George bought the Yankees for $12m. They are now worth a billion. We get to play with Yankee money when talking about these deals, but it's really silly. What is it worth to have a Yankee be the all-time HR leader? To win an additonal WS or 3? To be partof the stadium crowd when yet another record falls. Do we want to try and put a dollar figure on these things?

Everybody is a winner here (except ARod haters). In many ways, after much drama, order has been restored to the universe. My feeling is that Cashman and the Steinettes feel pretty good, and may hi-fives were exchanged.

Ruth, Joe D. and the Mic are American icons. They are part of our language and the history of baseball. ARod has a chance to be in that company (if he's not already). And none of these 4 guys are wearing a Red Sox uniform.

The bottom line is that ARod IS a Yankee, will retire a Yankee, and go into the HOF wearing pinstripes. This is what a lot of us were hoping for last September... yes?

2007-11-15 06:34:45
27.   mehmattski
Of course, no one knows about 42 year old A-Rod... and for all we know there's a buy out after the eighth year, and the Yankees can part ways if he's A-Useless at 40. In the meantime, the way the market is going predicts that $27.5M a year for the best hitter in baseball will likely be a bargain in 2015 or so. Hitters like Miguel Cabrera and others whose names we don't even know yet will likely be making more than that, and the value of $27.5M will be reduced due to inflation.

As I said in last night's thread, I agree that there is no question that A-Rod and Boras have won these negotiations if the total deal tops $300M, because if that's the case, they made the Yankees budge from their "you need to make up for the $21M we lost" stance.

On another note, it's absolutely insane that A-Rod is closer to signing a deal with the Yankees than is Mariano Rivera. Mo's credibility is declining by the hour.

2007-11-15 06:37:26
28.   Yankee Fan In Boston
26 "The bottom line is that ARod IS a Yankee, will retire a Yankee, and go into the HOF wearing pinstripes. This is what a lot of us were hoping for last September... yes? "

i am certain that this is where i will end up eventually. but sometimes it is difficult dismounting a horse when it is as high as the one i am currently perched upon.

2007-11-15 06:37:40
29.   OldYanksFan
15 A public apology? For what? Did he do something illegal or immoral? Did he do something others players haven't done and will never do?

He came back. He posted a very 'straight' announcement on his website, for the world to see.

"We know there are other opportunities for us, but Cynthia and I have a foundation with the club that has brought us comfort, stability and happiness. As a result, I reached out to the Yankees through mutual friends and conveyed that message. I also understand that I had to respond to certain Yankees concerns, and I was receptive and understanding of that situation."

Should Cashman apologize for not negotiating?
If Mo ends up signing for 3/$45, should he apologize for asking for $50?
Should every player who 'loses' in arbitration apologize for asking for more?
Should every player who leaves a team and goes to another team for more money apologize to their former team?
If you sell your car and ask for $8000, but end up getting $7000, should you apologize for asking for more?

ARod is not only a business man, like Mo, Po and every other players, but he is in a historically unique situation.

Is every fan and Banterer going to apologize for every 'greedy', 'slimy' comment they have made in the past? For all the judgements? For all the hatred?

We just have to keep Demonizing this guy, don't we.

2007-11-15 06:43:17
30.   Deadhorse
28 That high horse you wuz ridin' is dead.

23 "National Velvet," (sigh) my favorite!

2007-11-15 06:46:16
31.   OldYanksFan
28 An honest statement. Our feelings were hurt. I myself, was VERY disappointed. But this is business, and it is always hard to separate our emotions from business. I wish it was just baseball, but this is what free agency has wrought.

When I heard the Yankees traded Murcer, I literally cried. I called my best friend (also a Yankee fan) and he was crying too. I didn't watch a game for over a week. It was betrayal beyond my imagination.

So things could be worse.
But I guarantee that after his first walk off HR, both you and your horse will be very pleased.

2007-11-15 06:48:44
32.   Mattpat11
I really don't want to hear how sensitive he is ever again.
2007-11-15 06:50:11
33.   rbj
What is the reason Mo hasn't signed yet?
2007-11-15 06:50:46
34.   Yankee Fan In Boston
29 re: cashman not negotiating

it is difficult to do so when your calls aren't being returned. but i see your point(s).

31 as i hit the submit button on 28 , the thought of the first walk off dinger pranced through my skull. i had to suppress a grin.

2007-11-15 06:53:38