David Pinto also did some estimating and put ARod's annual worth at about $27M.

MLB took in around $6B in revenue last year. One half of one percent of $6B is $30M. Seems about right to me.

Incentive clauses pushing the total value up don't bother me. After all, that's not guaranteed money, which is the important part. (A lesson many have never learned in regards to the NFL.) And while we know about what the Yanks' original extension offer was, we have no idea what (if any) incentives it might have eventually included. To think it would have had none is foolish, given what A-Rod and Boras have asked for before.

0 "I just hope that the new contract doesn't include any of those pesky opt-out clauses"

Here here!

First of all, congrats to Alex, Cliff, et al for a great run at the Banter. The first place I go is here.

Arod ? Well, I really wish he had come to the Yanks 2 months ago and agreed on a deal. He would have won over every Yankee fan then. He would have won over the entire city ! Now ? Well I realize I just root for the laundry as Seinfeld once said, but I do like to "like" my players too. Anyway - at least it looks like we have a 3rd baseman with some pop right ?!

Sweeny Murti's take on Rivera IS weird. The Yankees are offering him 40% more than any other player at his position and a 3-year deal. There is no more negotiating to be done by the Yankees unless it's with themselves. I love Rivera but the only options left are A) sign the deal or B) decide you want to play someplace else for $10 million less over the life of the contract.

0 "I'll wait until the deal is final and I hear Rodriguez speak before adding my two cents."

i tossed and turned all night, wrestling with the two sides of this. i didn't drift off to sleep until i came to a similar conclusion. if rodriguez seems sincere (sigh), the contract is somewhat fair, and boras is belittled, i'll feel better about this.

i'm trying to keep an open mind, but darn it, the opt out announcement stung.

As one who fully supported Arod in his first four years, I am surprised that my feelings are mixed.

On the one hand, I realize that Arod is a good bet to be among the top-10 hitters in the game for at least next five seasons, and provides a unique combination of power/speed/defense/durability/motivation. Outside of Albert Pujols, Arod is exactly what the current Yankees lineup needs.

On the other hand, however, I was warming up to the idea of a retrun to normalcy. If Arod does return, it will ensure that next season will be another Arod/media circus. I can just hear Jeter muttering in his sleep now..."we, we, we, we, we!"

As for the cost, $27mn doesn't bother me, although 10 years will ensure that the second half of this deal is a bear. Of course, you have to judge it in the context of economics and the Yankees stand to see a significant acceleration in revenues over the next 10 years. Also, if incentives and backloading (which I suspect is how Arod will make up for the $21mn lost from Texas) are employed, it could make the deal even more affordable.

Also, you have to seriously consider the opportunity gain involved...by signing Arod, the Yankees have less pressure to move their stud prospects (although I'd still keep tabs on Cabrera as the 1B of the future and Santana).

In summary, I think the deal will work from an economic (it can't be worse than Giambi's contract has been) and on-field perspective, although I am a little wary of the continuing distractions that Arod's presence will bring.

Here's a fun thought...maybe Arod will officially announce a deal on the conference call held after he is awarded the MVP?

I think we make too much of the opt-out. Mo and Po's contract were up, so we don't blink an eye at them. They both became FAs, they both picked our pockets pretty good. I guess that makes them human. But ARod's contract was 'up' too, if he wanted it to be. He had a contract year, winning the MVP. He wanted a deal that carried him for the rest of his career. So indeed, his contract was 'up'.

So what now? Well, unlike a quote from him some years ago, a guess with a 10 year contract, he's serious about getting the HR record. And many others too. What a shame for us.

Since he will play 10-14 of his 20-24 year, 3 team career as a Yankee, no doubt he goes to the HOF as a Yankee. What a shame for us.

MCab was on his way to $20m, and more in the future. He was 10 lbs away from 1B/DH. And he would have cost us what? 4 Kids including one of the triad? And if we did that and then really needed Santana, what would that cost, or would we have had the kids to trade?

And If ARod did NOT opt out, we would be doing this in 2010 anyway. And which really shows he wants to be a Yankee more? Keeping a 3 year contract in place, or crawling back and losing a few bucks to make a 10 year commitment? It seems to me that Boras made a mistake (with ARod following his lead), and ARod QUICKLY made up for it when he saw himself in another uniform.

I have no doubt he could have gotten 5$/160.

Now ARod will truly be the face of the team. Jetes may be captain, and Jorge is our soul, by Alex will be our face. He came back to play with Jeter, back to NY, back to his legacy.

Yeah, I think he's overpaid, especially towards the end, but so is Mo, Po and Jeter... and maybe Phil and Joba will be too. To me, a big part of our money is keeping our kids and our stars. It's a real luxury. Unlike Nomar, Pedro and JD, our family stays intact.

By the way... one of the incentives ARod insisted on, is that when he hits his 50th HR of each year, he can sleepover at Jetes house.

If this is indeed finalized in the next couple of days, I will be glad to have Alex back. But to continually hear and read that he had to "crawl back" to the Yankees truly makes me want to throw up a bit in my mouth. The fuss over his initial contract was overwheming. I am curious to see what the reaction is to his new contract. For the bargain basement price of @275 million. What a world.

6 I confess William, I have similar feelings to some degree. But at least the circus isn't a 'fat circus', a 'lazy circus' or a 'DWI circus'. And it is not really ARod. He wore headphones all last year. It's the press and their doing, in their never ending zeal to create a story where there isn't any.

But let's be honest. The Steinettes love it when the Mets or Red Sox win a big game, but it's a Yankee that is getting all the news. I mean the Sox won the WS this year, but who knew? ARod was the story.

I guess it goes with the territory. ARod was near perfect last year (as far as the press was concerned) but he still hit 129 on RLYW's cover counter. I assume wifey's 'Fuck You' wardrobe will go away. He is now (or will be) a Yankee for life, so maybe a little of the din will die down.

Yean, ARod will always seek out the red light, and chances are he will still have part of his foot in his mouth. That's who he is. But he is THE superstar. This level of fame is not easy to have. Barry doesn't handle it well, and neither did Ted.

The truth is as Yankee fans, it's time for US to stop buying all the crap: unclutch; greedy; losesr; anchor; bad chemistry; etc. WE should not be buying into this. It's all bullshit. It's all yellow journalism. He's just a human being with faults like the rest of us. He ain't perfect, he ain't Jeteresque. He works like a dog, takes care of himself, extends himself to the younger ballplayers and he plays this game right.

Next year, he will pass Mickey Mantle on the HR list. Think of that. And maybe the Babe. And maybe Barry too.

And we get to watch.
How cool is that?

Everyone who is saying that ARod will be overpaid during the last half of his contract are forgetting something: his chase for the multitudes of records will be worth a LOT of money. Will he still be hitting 50 HR when he's 40? Probably not, but the sold out stadiums at home and on the road are worth a lot.

If the leaked details of this contract with unprecedented incentives given by the Yankees are true, then despite the Yankee and NY media spin about him crawling back, Alex Rodriguez won this negotiation hands down. The Yankees have essentially have done the Jason Giambi deal all over again. Again they have no competition for the player and they make an outrageous offer. The market determines a player's worth not statistical calculations.

Simone, you're right about the market setting the price. But there's also what it's worth to the Yankees, which helps set the price.

I once bought a relic at a flea market. It cost 50 bucks becuase the vendor swore it was from the 19th century. Now I don't know if it was or wasn't, but frankly, I didn't care. Even if it had been made a month earlier, to me, it was worth 50 bucks. So I didn't care what it was really worth on the market.

Arod might be worth whatever the Yankees are likely to pay him. He probably has different values to different teams, market aside.

11 most star players are overpaid as their career winds down. if pay was strictly based on performance, many young guys would be rolling in cash, as opposed to pulling league minimum salary or somewhere thereabouts.

I have no problem with A-Rod coming back. I always suspected that he wanted to. My recollection is that he always hedged his statements about opting out, not about being Yankee.. And Boras convinced him that opting-opting out.

That said, I actually think that the Yankees and A-Rod could turn this whole thing around and make it into a "Paris Hilton learns from her prison experience" moment if they play the cards right.

First, once the deal is done, A-Rod should make a public apology to the fans. He should say, point-blank, that he was wrong to opt-out. He should NOT blame Boras: "Boras is my agent. I take full responsibility." But say how he was willing to play for significantly less than he could have gotten, just because he wanted to remain a Yankee.

A-Rod should acknowledge the money that the Yankees lost from Texas. He should say that that was money that the Yankees could have paid existing Yankees or used for more pitching and that he wanted it to come out of his pocket because he was the one who screwed up by opting-out. He's not saying it because he wants anyone to feel sorry for him for "sacrificing" -- he understands that the average fan thinks all athletes are over-paid -- but that he wants people to know important it was that he not hurt the team with his contract.

Then Hank should come out and say "We explained to Alex that we had been prepared to make him an offer that was significantly greater than this one and if he wanted to be a Yankee all the money that we would lose from Texas and the payroll tax would have to come off the table. He agreed."

Win-win-win. A-Rod looks like he learned something. The Yankees look like they didn't cave. And Boras gets to maintain the illusion that the market is stronger than it is.

12 I disagree. Boras could never have gotten $350 million. But an increase over A-Rod's last contract from the Angels or Dodgers? Sure.

12 It's tough to invoke pure market theory when talking MLB salaries--it's simply not a pure market environment.

As for the Giambi comparison--maybe yes, maybe no. First of all, as I recall, the Yankees DID have competition for Giambi: the A's, who offered him a very lucrative 6-year deal. That pushed the Yankees to offering a seventh year. Second, and more importantly, A-Rod has been and will be a much better player than Giambi. Even in his prime, Giambi was one of a number of slugging 1B/DH types (albeit the best for a couple of seasons). But A-Rod's combination of talents is much harder to find; moreover, he is a much better conditioned athlete than Giambi, and he holds out the promise of setting records (which in turn means attendance and money for the club). Thus, overall, A-Rod is worth much more than Giambi ever was. So maybe the market has spoken after all.

By the time Alex gets his third MVP award on Monday, his deal will have already been announced. Or maybe they'll do it as a two-for-one jamboree.

Many Yankee fans I've spoken to have mixed feelings about Rodriguez's return. Not me. Or at least the only thing that gives me pause for concern would be a future in which he starts to break down rapidily. An oft-injured Rodriguez would bring even more bashing than he's received over the past few years and that would be a drag. Ten years is risky, no matter how healthy Rodriguez has been thus far. But I suppose if he can stay healthy for six of those ten years, it'll be okay.

Regardless of his personality and how he handles things (his A Rodness, as a friend put it), the Yanks are getting back the reigning MVP. The team is better with him. And that's a beautiful thing.

17 "his A rodness" is a term that i predict i will be using often.

I was pissed at Rodriguez for the past coupla weeks, but not entirely surprised given his and his agent's histories. And now this whole thing boomerangs and he's headed back to the Bronx. Fine by me. To continue to beat the phrase to death, I root for laundry, like many of the other Banterers. The money, I could care less about. It's not mine. The Yanks will continue to swim in cash, and MLB will as well, what with all the new ways they're finding to separate their (willing) fans from their money. A run at Bonds' record in a few years time won't hurt either.

But now I just have 2 requests for A-Rod.
1) Work your ass off.
2) Keep your damn mouth shut and think before you act.

#1 is obviously more important than #2, but I'd prefer to be talking about IPK's strong start to the season next May, rather than the tabs' coverage of Alex, Melky, Robbie, and a gaggle of orphaned, one-legged, syphillitic, French-Indo-Chinese-Romanian hookers leaving a Waffle House at 3am in Kansas City.

It's a long way from and we haven't waited particularly long but I'm ready to "kill the fatted calf" and do the dance. How could we not want that guy back in the lineup? He's still capable of producing offensive stats of historic proportion and I believe as our pitching improves we will be capable of winning with him rather than in spite of him.

Ten years is forever in a baseball sense but for right now as I said I'm forgiving and forgetting and happily moving on.

0 "I just hope that the new contract doesn't include any of those pesky opt-out clauses."

Not me. I hope the newly forged iron-clad prenup includes all sorts of outs for both sides.
Overall, this ARod-Yankee affair has not been a great marriage.
I'd say it's been a volatile mess of a relationship at times. But look, they're keeping the family together for the sake of the kids now. Is that what this is?

Don't get me wrong. I'm glad ARod's coming back, I've mostly liked the guy, and been in awe of his talent, but I'm not kidding myself. This is like remarrying Liz Taylor in so many melodramatic ways.
That's it. The Yanks are Richard Burton to ARod's Liz Taylor. Oy. Such a Hollywood love story. Can't live with you and your drinking/ can't live without you, you scoundrel. Let's get married and divorced... twice!

If indeed the Yanks and ARod are going to re-make Burton & Taylor's "Divorce His, Divorce Hers," better that they're reunited at the altar now, mindful of where the exits are.

Since we're all talking about reactions, I'd like to add that I'm a scorned woman until the deal is OFFICIAL.

OK, ARod as Liz Taylor isn't the hippest of metaphors, but I'm enjoying it so much right now I might start calling him "National Velvet."

It's a pretty cool nickname for a top notch cleanup hitter, if you think about it.

22 Levy given what I think I know of scorned women I believe that position makes a lot of sense. :-)

I'm happy (if) he's coming back. I like having highly talented, productive players on my Yankees. Especially if it only costs $ and not blue chip prospects. As for all the sturm and drang surrounding him, I can just block that out in the morning paper, if I can read about another Yankee win.

12 You sound bitter. I don't know if Mo and Po are 'winners', or if the Yankees are 'losers'. A negotiation has no value in itself, it is simply a means to an end. No one is holding a gun to ARods head or the Yankees head. Unlike Mo and Po, there are plenty of fans who are happy to see ARod go elsewhere.

As I said, George bought the Yankees for $12m. They are now worth a billion. We get to play with Yankee money when talking about these deals, but it's really silly. What is it worth to have a Yankee be the all-time HR leader? To win an additonal WS or 3? To be partof the stadium crowd when yet another record falls. Do we want to try and put a dollar figure on these things?

Everybody is a winner here (except ARod haters). In many ways, after much drama, order has been restored to the universe. My feeling is that Cashman and the Steinettes feel pretty good, and may hi-fives were exchanged.

Ruth, Joe D. and the Mic are American icons. They are part of our language and the history of baseball. ARod has a chance to be in that company (if he's not already). And none of these 4 guys are wearing a Red Sox uniform.

The bottom line is that ARod IS a Yankee, will retire a Yankee, and go into the HOF wearing pinstripes. This is what a lot of us were hoping for last September... yes?

Of course, no one knows about 42 year old A-Rod... and for all we know there's a buy out after the eighth year, and the Yankees can part ways if he's A-Useless at 40. In the meantime, the way the market is going predicts that $27.5M a year for the best hitter in baseball will likely be a bargain in 2015 or so. Hitters like Miguel Cabrera and others whose names we don't even know yet will likely be making more than that, and the value of $27.5M will be reduced due to inflation.

As I said in last night's thread, I agree that there is no question that A-Rod and Boras have won these negotiations if the total deal tops $300M, because if that's the case, they made the Yankees budge from their "you need to make up for the $21M we lost" stance.

On another note, it's absolutely insane that A-Rod is closer to signing a deal with the Yankees than is Mariano Rivera. Mo's credibility is declining by the hour.

26 "The bottom line is that ARod IS a Yankee, will retire a Yankee, and go into the HOF wearing pinstripes. This is what a lot of us were hoping for last September... yes? "

i am certain that this is where i will end up eventually. but sometimes it is difficult dismounting a horse when it is as high as the one i am currently perched upon.

15 A public apology? For what? Did he do something illegal or immoral? Did he do something others players haven't done and will never do?

He came back. He posted a very 'straight' announcement on his website, for the world to see.

"We know there are other opportunities for us, but Cynthia and I have a foundation with the club that has brought us comfort, stability and happiness. As a result, I reached out to the Yankees through mutual friends and conveyed that message. I also understand that I had to respond to certain Yankees concerns, and I was receptive and understanding of that situation."

Should Cashman apologize for not negotiating?
If Mo ends up signing for 3/$45, should he apologize for asking for $50?
Should every player who 'loses' in arbitration apologize for asking for more?
Should every player who leaves a team and goes to another team for more money apologize to their former team?
If you sell your car and ask for $8000, but end up getting $7000, should you apologize for asking for more?

ARod is not only a business man, like Mo, Po and every other players, but he is in a historically unique situation.

Is every fan and Banterer going to apologize for every 'greedy', 'slimy' comment they have made in the past? For all the judgements? For all the hatred?

We just have to keep Demonizing this guy, don't we.

28 That high horse you wuz ridin' is dead.

23 "National Velvet," (sigh) my favorite!

28 An honest statement. Our feelings were hurt. I myself, was VERY disappointed. But this is business, and it is always hard to separate our emotions from business. I wish it was just baseball, but this is what free agency has wrought.

When I heard the Yankees traded Murcer, I literally cried. I called my best friend (also a Yankee fan) and he was crying too. I didn't watch a game for over a week. It was betrayal beyond my imagination.

So things could be worse.
But I guarantee that after his first walk off HR, both you and your horse will be very pleased.

I really don't want to hear how sensitive he is ever again.

What is the reason Mo hasn't signed yet?

29 re: cashman not negotiating

it is difficult to do so when your calls aren't being returned. but i see your point(s).

31 as i hit the submit button on 28 , the thought of the first walk off dinger pranced through my skull. i had to suppress a grin.

33 i've heard it suggested that mo is making the yankees wait as a payback for not extending his deal before spring training... personally, i think having them pay $15M a year is payback, but what do i know?

35 As long as it's not because the Dodgers are offering 4y/$50 mil or the like.

Personally, I don't care about who is the winner and loser here. If both sides reach a deal that they are comfortable with, then they are both winners. The bottom line is Arod is good for the Yankees and the Yankees are good for Arod. As a fan, I don't need an apology from Arod...I just need him to have an OPS+ around 140. I also need Cashman to work on soldifying the bench and coming up with a creative way to add Johan to the mix of Joba and Hughes. If this deal is done, all that lead up to it becomes irrelevant.

32 LOL. Same here.

35 I doubt Mo is holding out so he can make $5mn in year 4 of the deal. If that's the case, the Yankees sould match it. Having the opportunity to defer salary in the form of a lesser annual amount would almost make up for the extra $5mn.

I agree with 35 ....this smacks of Mo playing hard to get and letting the Yankees know that if he had to wait, now they will as well.

36 unless the dodgers are trading saito and/or broxton, they have no use for mo.

i thought mo's threat was just that...

...until i read that they are indeed aggressively pursuing santana...

(gulp)

40 Mo and his agent are aggressively pursuing Santana?

I would have been fine not having ARod back. He's obviously not the tipping point to the Yanks winning or losing. Yankes could have won without him - now they'll have a 10 yr contract wrapped around their necks. I predict this will not end well. No long contracts for me. 10 years is a LONG time.

42 ... could have won without him...
Well, they couldn't have won as many games without him, that's for sure. They wouldn't have made the play-offs this year without him, for instance, and I think their chances of making the play-offs next year increase enormously if/when he signs.
Then there are the long-term effects. Yes, they're saddled with an aging player with a huge salary in 2016. On the other hand, there's much less chance that Cashman trades away our young talent for an immediate impact player now, so that improves the future prospects. We can sit tight for now, keep Melky and Robbie and Phil etc., and go after a stud pitcher next year, without sacrificing '08 as a 'rebuilding' year.
So I'm happy.

My birthday is October 28th, and my younger brother Mikey gave me a great gift that morning: a framed photo of A-Rod hitting 500 with the ticket. We were at the game together, along with our other brother John.

That night I heard A-Rod opted out. My brother called me and said "bad timing on the gift". I told him "we got to see one of the greatest baseball players ever make history. The gift is fantastic."

Now the gift is even better because I get to see A-Rod break more records at the Stadium, both current and new.

Thanks for coming back A-Rod. This fan isn't angry, but rather damn glad to have you on the team.

Now let's get #27 and stop fucking around! I want to put all that Boston "dynasty" talk where it belongs: in the trash can.

41 strange, isn't it?

19 #1 has never been a problem. Rodriguez works, and hustles, as hard as anyone does.

Is anyone on this blog a part owner of the Yankees? Then why do we justify his contract based on records he'll probably break? As a Yankee fan, I care about the Yankees winning, preferably with players that don't make me hold my nose as I watch. I was looking forward to a less bloated, up-and-coming team.

Is A-Rod one of the best hitters in the game? Sure, but the Yankees won four championships without anyone hitting more than 30 home runs. Winning has as much to do with chemistry and role-playing as it does individual statistics, and A-Rod seems detrimental to the team in every aspect of the game except two or three individual stat categories (and maybe tickets sold).

43 There are so many different equations to consider that I prefer to look at the most basic one...if they re-sign Arod at a number they were always willing to pay then they are getting the best option at the position by far (even Cabrera advocates like myself would have to admit he is really a 1B). Then, when you consider they don't have to trade stud prospects to regain what they already had, nor spend $52mn for a lesser player like Lowell, the fact that Arod will be a vastly overpaid at age 38-42 becomes more palatable. Of course, inflation and MLB's exploding revenue could mitigate against that a bit, as could Arod developing a Barry Bonds career path (hopefully sans the artificial sweetners).

47 Why do you have to be a part owner to enjoy records? Just as I loved having an all-time great like Clemens on the team, I also take pleasure in watching a player like Arod compile all-time numbers. Of course, I want the Yankees to win World Series, but the fact remains that I don't wait until October to tune in. As a fan who watches a disturbing majority of the team's regular season games, having players like Arod around make things more interesting (and also make wins more likely).

As for chemistry, it sure looked like this Yankee team really had it. You had Melky and Cano making love to Arod on the bench, the bullpen doing the shoulder spin everytime he homered and even Torre saying that he and Arod grew close during the season. What exactly did that good feeling get the Yankees in October?

I love it when a plan comes together.

Actually, the great part of this, is that now Cashman et al, can devote the rest of the offseason to setting up the pitching.

I may be overly optimistic here, but the idea of a

Wang
Hughes
Joba
IPK
Mussina

rotation, makes me feel all giggly inside. Figure out the bullpen and we're right back in the hunt.

43 go after a stud pitcher next year

I keep hearing that next year's free agent class will be strong and deep. Honestly, I don't see it.

C. C. "Rider" Sabathia and Johan Santana, legitimate stud pitchers, are eligible as things stand now. I'd be surprised if either of them actually hits the market, astonished if they both do.

A. J. Burnett (who can opt out) and Ben Sheets are both very good pitchers, and both are injured every year. Poor investments.

Rich Harden, John Lackey and Jake Peavy all have club options that will almost certainly be exercised.

So, honestly, I'm not at all sure we should expect any more from next year's class than this one.

43 If all goes according to plan, the Yankees won't need to acquire a stud pitcher next year, as Hughes, Joba, Wang and IPK (order TBD) could be a lethal front four. The problem is this year, as the kids will all be handling #5-type workloads. If Pettitte does not return, the rotation is a major weakness. And the bullpen is scary too, even with Mo.

The pitching staff, as it currently stands, cannot deliver more than 88 wins. Pettitte brings the number up to 91-92, and a bullpen upgrade (which is mostly dependent on luck) can push the count back up to 94-95. The good news is that if the team can manage to make the playoffs, the young arms (if they have been properly preserved) can propel a deep postseason run.

52 Rich Harden is a great name...if I was Cashman, I would see if I could pry him cheaply and then cross my fingers.

Too bad Hank can't let slip a quote telling Johan that if he doesn't sign with anyone else, the Yankees will make him richer beyond his wildest dreams.

51 That rotation makes me happy too, except that since we can only get 460 innings out of our rookies, and Mussina isn't exactly an innings eater, we need either:

A tremendously solid bull-pen
An innings-eating league average pitcher

Among free agent pitchers who are not class A or B, the best seem to be Bartolo Colon, Jason Jennings, and Jon Leiber. The Yankees can take a one-year rider on the first two, since they're coming off injuries, while Leiber will probably be looking for a 2 or 3 year deal.

The youth in the rotation makes me giggly too, but if it's burned out in September/October, it's not much use to the Yankees.

Daily News' John Harper has the details on what made Alex change his mind ... interesting stuff.

http://tinyurl.com/3b8xx3

51 No, I'm not giggling. Four of those five are 5-to-6 inning pitchers this year. Without another good innings-eating starter (come back Andy, please!) or a really deep bullpen (yeah right), we're toast.

55 If only Pettitte would just return too!

The irony here is that the Yankees really didn't need to make any major improvements off of last year...just re-assemble the very same team. With a full season of Joba/Hughes/IPK and a few lesser bullpen arms, as well as what I expect will be more astute managing, that should be enough. So far, only Posada is in the fold...Rivera is playing hard to get, Arod is still unsigned and Pettitte may actually want to retire. If all three find their way back, I'll be pretty optimistic about 2008.

47 "Sure, but the Yankees won four championships without anyone hitting more than 30 home runs. Winning has as much to do with chemistry and role-playing as it does individual statistics, and A-Rod seems detrimental to the team in every aspect of the game except two or three individual stat categories (and maybe tickets sold). "

I am so tired of this argument (and I do not mean to single your post out; it is representative of a common theme).

Yes, the 1996-2000 dynasty won the WS without a 30 HR guy. But you know what, those dynasties in the 1920s and 1930s and 1950s and 1960s all had mashers on them. Moreover, despite the rhetoric, the 1990s version scored a lot of runs. And they weren't just a collection of slap hitters, à la the 2002 Angels.

In what way is A-Rod detrimental to the team? He hits very well, plays solid (and occasionally very good) defense, runs the bases well. Do you want him to pitch? Do you believe that his presence makes other players worse? Is he to blame for Abreu's poor start, for example? Or Wang's implosion during the playoffs?

55 The only thing worse than the youngsters being burned out in September/October is having them on the surgeon's table in November. (See Billy Martin's A's)

55 Another solution would be to go to a modified six man rotation--basically spread Pettitte's innings out over a larger number of starters. Such a tactic would require a deft hand and the patience to sit through occasional starts by the likes of Karstens.

54 Don't count out Hank.

55 57 Agreed - really need an innings eater - definitely with no Pettitte - but I think even with Pettite back the Yanks will need someone to play the role of a Julian Tavarez type - 5th starter as needed; long man out of the bullpen, etc.
Right after Girardi was hired I heard a few rumors that he might pursue Lieber to play this kind of role.

59 They want him to Bunt! They want him to dive headfirst into first base! But mostly, they want him to be shorter, less athletic, and make a lot less money. Then they'd be more appreciative.

The whole line of thinking is insane. That's like saying the Human Genome Project would have been better off if James Watson and Craig Venter weren't involved- they're both "morale-destroying" guys, but they're two of the best biologists of a generation. Surely the HGP would have finished sooner had they been staffed by a couple frat guys who never took anything but introductory biology. Ability to sequence DNA- nah, but they've got chemistry!

59 Also, those teams had better and deeper pitching staffs.

56 I'm too cynical. My first thought was, "Here's the Tampa Cabal planting a story with their old friends the Daily News to make sure Hank looks fondly on them."

62 Lieber would be interesting, but my only concern is his health. The last time he pitched over 200 innings was 2005; before that, 2001. His 3rd highest total over that time was 176. That won't do. And he's 38 next year - he could be Moose 2.0.

I think I'd take a flyer on Colon. If he's healthy (maybe a big IF) he can be a horse. (And he's only 35).

59 Thank you for saying that so well. I'd add that the '98 team drooled power. Almost every regular* in the '98 lineup hit 20 home runs (or more); every regular but two* had SLG over .472. How people manage to overlook this is beyond me.

*Curtis hit 10 HR and slugged under .400, but if you combine him with Spencer, it all balances out; the only other regular to slug under .472 was Knoblauch, but he still hit 17 HRs (and led the team in walks too)

64 Right! It's not an "A or B" but an "A and B" proposition. The dynasty teams, including the teams through 2003, generally were at at or near the top of the league both in RS and fewest RA.

On a related note--those teams also had pitchers who walked fewer batters and, more importantly, had high K rates. This helped mask the otherwise average (at best) defense--the defense exposed by the Angels in their fluky single-steal-second-score-on-a-ground-out march to the WS.

54 I only wish he'd go by the name "Dick Harden." That would be superb.

Harden gets $4.5M this year, and an option for $7M next year. The only way he becomes available is if he continues to be injured, in which case I probably wouldn't want him.

http://squawkingbaseball.com/?p=46

Pretty much mirrors my feelings on Alex's noble return*.

*should he return, yadda yadda yadda.

61 With that, I am afraid of replacements due to injury/ineffectiveness/innings limit. 2008 will going to require creativity WRT the construction/deployment of the pitching staff.

http://www.nomaas.org/blockbuster.html

I am disappointed in NoMaas on this one. What a hole-filled load of hooey. I expect better from those guys.

66 My hope is that the current crop of young pitchers helps to return the Yanks to those high K low BB days. That the defense is somewhat better now is also a good thing.

And note that, like the pitching staff, the defense was outstanding for a period of time (1998-2000) and then fell to league average or worse.

70 Their earlier plan to try and dump Damon, Matsui, or Giambi on the Dodgers, hoping to take advantage of Torre's loyalty- was a much better plan.

Cliff, if you're reading this, don't click on that link. It involves trading Cano, and it may induce a seizure for you...

71 I agree. The Matsui to the Dodgers for something of value was a nifty idea; very out-of-the-box thinking. That's what I expect from NoMaas. This trading Cano and replacing him with Loney is just crap on so many levels.

0 "A bit gun shy ... I'd held off ... Thankfully it only took a few hours for Rodriguez to strike me moot once again." Cliff, could you please post a replacement-for-Mo analysis. Surely that will karmicly induce The Great One to come to his senses and sign on the dotted line.

56 Great article, thanks for the linky. I've gotten myself all wrapped up in the Drama of this stuff. I'm such a sissy.

70 What idiots. Not sure why you, or anyone else, expected more though, they should just stick to the photoshop stuff.

And by the way, I want no part of Lowell for 1B or anywhere - just say no to Type-A free agents. I'd rather get Andrew & convert his Type-B ass to 1B than lose another first rounder. And I still want Rollen (if someone like Clippard + all the money gets it done) to split time at 1B, DH & DL.

That 'A-Rod slips the leash' lead over at LoHud had me smiling all morning. Of all the times for Pete to head away on vacation. He's still posting but not from the so called 'inside'. It would be nice to have him there cracking away for us. I'm glad he got some time away though. His is the second best Yankees site on the web

74 Sometimes I think PeteAbe slips a leash. He's great for posting information, but his analysis is usually facile.

He is so over paid. +/- $20 million is too much for his lack of clutch performance in the playoffs. Baseball is won or lost by pitching. Our pitchers are the ones needing to be paid above Alex. He should be paid in the vicinity of + $10 million. Anyone don't care for the dude because he is a PR whore, greedy, and lacking team spirit/loyalty. I'll never be a Alex fan. Either way go Yankees!!!!!!!!!!

From a world where Miguel Cairo is the highest paid athlete... where small sample size is deemed statistically significant... comes bob34967.

65 I think that was kind of the point. The theory being that having a line-up where everyone is a solid hitter is better than having a few stars and some holes.

78 As opposed to the A-Rod-less Yankees, who would have many holes and not many solid hitters either...

59 everybody knows the midges were ARod's.

74 word. Abe's great. 75 I think a lot of what he says in his analysis is just to stir the pot, and get a reaction from his readers.
He generally has a strong grasp on the big picture, even if he didn't see this one coming.

That said, I do not agree with Abe's take that "National Velvet" was on a leash. Elizabeth Taylor(ARod) will never wear anybody's leash. However, diamond-studded chokers are another thing.

I kid because I love ya, Liz!

78 79 Actually, I think the Yankees have at least a solid lineup without Arod and an even better one with him. Who exactly in this lineup isn't solid (lets say OPS+ of 110? Outside of Melky and the 1B hole, every other regular can reasonably be expected to top that level. The more guys who exceed it significantly, the less pressure placed on the weaker elements.

80 If he is just stirring the pot, then I wouldn't assign to him much credibility.

In non A-Rod news:

A new article over at BP ranks the best baserunners in the minor leagues, based on Equivalent Air Advancement Runs, or how many extra runs a player gave a team given his baserunning opportunities.

The only Yankee to make the list was Mitch Hilligoss, the single-A Charleston infielder who knocked out a 38 game hitting streak earlier this season. Dan Fox has him listed fifth in all of the minor leagues for this statistic. It's interesting that speedsters Austin Jackson and Brett Gardner do not make the list.

81 Without A-Rod, the Yankees would be playing below average offensive performers at first base (Duncan/Phillips), third base (Betemit's career high is a 107 OPS+), and centerfield. That's one third of the lineup. Meanwhile, Damon had an OPS+ of 97 last year, while Bobby Abreu clawed back to a 114 after a dismal start. Jeter, Cano, Matsui, and Posada are all likely to be in the "solid" category, so we've got less than half the lineup at "solid."

With A-Rod, first base becomes more likely to give solid production with a platoon of Duncan and Betemit rather than Duncan and Phillips (Betemit's career OPS as a left handed hitter makes him much more attractive). So that improves two positions for the (very hefty) price of one player.

so... what if mo demanded a 4th year?

how would that effect the gameplan then?

...because that's what good ol' kenny ballgame is saying is the reason for the hold up:
http://tinyurl.com/2xshhp

For the financially minded Banterers, how much salary inflation is there expected to be over the next ten years? 30 million dollars at the back end of a deal will still certainly be a lot of money, but far more players (than one) will be making it by then.

44 Amen!

85 At 3% inflation, it's about $22M in today's dollars, more or less.

Did anyone see the Deadspin article about A-Rod? The comments weren't nearly as bad as I thought they would be, and one of them pointed out something terrifying:

Check out the picture associated. On the right hand side appears to be a man with quite possibly the longest torso ever. Or it could be a black column. But it made me lol.

http://deadspin.com/sports/welcome-home%3F/its-almost-like-a+rod-never-left-323066.php

86 Re-bop on the Amen!

76 Bob, please tell me that was a joke or something.

"He is so over paid. +/- $20 million is too much for his lack of clutch performance in the playoffs. Baseball is won or lost by pitching. Our pitchers are the ones needing to be paid above Alex."

How many times can you contradict yourself in one short post? If pitching wins and loses games, then A-Rod's clutchness or lack thereof is irrelevant. Moreover, if pitching wins/loses games, since the Yankees have been knocked out of the playoffs the last few years, doesn't that mean the pitching is to blame? If so, why should the pitchers get more?

Sorry, I didn't read the question right. Baseball salaries are escalating at well above standard inflation, so locking this in makes more financial sense, if you assume A-Rod will age well enough. If you say that baseball salary escalation will double a 3% inflation figure over the next 10 years, then A-Rod's 2017 salary in today's terms would be $16.7M. Roughly 7 guys made that much this year- can we assume that A-Rod will be one of the top 7-10 players in the game in 2017? Probably not, but a number then needs to be placed on his value added in terms of gate receipts, etc.

Ratcheting the baseball salary escalation to 3x inflation puts him around #25 in today's dollars. Maybe the truth falls somewhere in the middle.

88 Thanks for the laugh.

32 "He read all the criticism online from home," one person who spoke to Rodriguez said. "And when he was out of the country, he was calling people every day to find out what was being said about him. I think it got to the point where he truly was in a state of depression."

Christ Jesus. Remember your headphones, Alex!

Put on your fucking headphones!

90 please don't feed the trolls, mp ...

anyway, regarding the 4 years for Mo question, keith law put it pretty reasonably in his chat:

In the abstract, I'd never give a reliever four years, and I don't think he'll get four years from anyone else. In this particular case, though, the Yankees don't really have a good plan B if they're going to let Joba start (and using him as a 60-inning reliever would be one of the bigger wastes of talent this side of Elijah Dukes). So I'd say if I was Cashman I'd try to bridge the gap with some alternative offers - less money per year to go four years, or adding a vesting option to protect against injury, etc.

84 Fourth year, guaranteed? Hmmm, I don't know. 42 year old closer? I'm kinda leery about it, rather have it be an option.

I would probably give in though, because it's Mo.

Before everyone starts feeling all "warm" and "giggly" about the pitching rotation, and not throw cold water on everyone, but I remember a few years ago in the mid-late 90's when the Met fans all felt "warm" and "giggly" about their young pitching staff. Can anyone ever remember their names? Isringhausen is the only one who had a semblance of a career. Too many young pitchers get overused and blow out an elbow or a shoulder. Having seen Joba, IPK and Hughes a few times in person, I'll admit Joba and IPK have some real, explosive talent and Hughes has great control. I happened to see John Smoltz pitch his first game and thought he was the best young pitcher I'd ever seen. the first time I saw Chamberlain I thought the same thing. But I don't recall many teams winning Championships with a bunch of rookie pitchers. I'd certainly package Huges or IPK with Melky and Farnsworth to get a johann Santana every day of the week and pay Farnsworth salary, too.

84 Pay. The. Man. Now.

Give him 4 years if that's what he wants. Everyone else likes 4 years/$52M, so why the heck not.

How will Mo age? Even with a drop in velocity, the cutter is still going to be effective as long as it moves. If Mo (finally) works the changeup in, it might actually increase his effectiveness. A changeup puts no strain on his arm.

I think Mo can be effective even at 42. Maybe not $13M effective, but close enough from 39-41 to make it worthwhile.

93 Seriously. I've never even heard of a man with as much social anxiety as A-Rod. However, I think our quick acceptance of the idea of A-Rod back in the fold is an example of why the Yankees are so perfect for him. As long as he performs, we'll give him a pass on his personal foibles. Also, I think Cynthia totally bitched him out.

96 I would think that Girardi and Co will take much better care of Hughes/Joba/IPK than Dallas Green did with Isringhausen, Paul Wilson, and Bill Pulsipher 11-12 years ago. Especially because the Yanks clearly understand moderating young pitchers' workloads, and Dallas Green did not.

I'm also not sure Hughes/IPK + Melky + Farnsworth is anywhere near enough to get Santana, but that's another story.

97 Agreed. Control's not correlated with age, is it? As long as Mo retains his pinpoint control, he should be competitive, if not dominant. Especially if he (finally) works in that change.

Maybe Joe can speed up the process.

(First time I've referred to the new Joe as Joe, btw, rather than Girardi.) In with the new, out with the old...

100 weeping - "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss!"

(Though I really hope that doesn't apply to poor bullpen usage and over-reliance on crappy veteran bench players.)

I must say, for all the drama Alex brings to the table, I much, much prefer him to the fat kid.

Maybe it's just a case of "the Arod you know..."

He may be an Arod, but he's our Arod. Welcome back to the fold, you fucking loon.

HA!

101 Heh hehe! :)

Hear, hear!

Can you imagine if the New Joe (Joe 2.0?) actually knows how to use the pen?

We might win seven or eight more games a season on that alone!

100 I'm no doctor but there is a correlation between age and bladder control, no?

I just hope the Yanks are keeping enough cash in the kitty for next spring when the armless torso of Roger Clemens becomes available.

We'll be invincible!

100 re: mo & his changeup

i was frustrated earlier this year, when he K'ed ryan howard on a silly change, then he talked about sprinkling a few into his arsenal, and did nothing of the sort. then i wondered if he's keeping it in his back pocket. waiting for the velocity to dip, use it then, and keep guys from seeing it until he needs it.

or... i read way too much into these things.

102 heh. "the fat kid." that was nice.

103 I like the name "Nujo", especially if he starts foaming at the mouth (which seems inevitable considering the press, the umpiring, the Steinbrennering...

98 Good point; Ladies, how many of you would take a bat to your husband/SO's head if he did what A-Rod did and somehow your name and perceived influence became part of the public discussion?

102 I guess if it does happen, "HA!" is back to #1 on the back-of-Banter-tee-shirt-discussion, eh?

99 Minnesota needs a center-fielder and a starter and everyone needs a relief pitcher (although we'd be the one's relieved to be rid of Kyle). So it might work for them.

104 Oh, for God's sake, Sliced!

ha ha ha ha!

:)

106 "ha!" definitely "ha!"

106 Without question.

And the roller-coaster ride actually heightens the effect.

HA!

105 :)

106 I was at a Marlins' split-squad spring training game in 2006 where Girardi was annoyed because balks kept getting called on his young pitchers. There weren't very many people there so we could hear the whole exchange:

Joe: Those aren't balks! Get a clue, ump!
Ump: They are from where I see them!
Joe: Ah, go to hell!
Ump: I'm not going anywhere, but you are!
(Ump tosses Joe out of the game. Joe emerges from the dugout and has an exchange with the ump I can't hear, then goes back in the dugout.)

Of course, since this is spring training, he can't go to the clubhouse through the dugout. He had to walk down the third baseline, where I and the other 30 fans gave him a standing ovation as he walked by. I half expected him to show up on the patio of the building just over the left field fence, wearing glasses and a mustache and holding a beer.

99 Indeed, baseball reference having minor league stats now is awesome.

First off, of the three dandy Mets of the mid-90's, the only one with any numbers similar to the trio of Yankees, was Isringhausen. And his whip weren't as good as any of the three Yankees. His K rate was close to Kennedy, but Hughes and Chamberlain had much better numbers.

Here are his yearly IP, by age:
19 - 65 IP
20 - 90 IP
21 - 193 IP (!)
22 - 221 IP
23 - 173 IP and arm trouble (plus other injuries not related to pitching.

Paul Wilson yearly IP, by age:
21 - 49 IP
22 - 186 IP
23 - 162 IP and shoulder surgery

Bill Pulsipher yearly IP, by age:
18 - 95 IP
19 - 139 IP
20 - 201 IP
21 - 214 IP and an arm injury

Here's Hughes:
19 - 86 IP
20 - 146 IP
21 - 109 IP cut short by a pulled hammy

104 Man, SB; that's something a forty-year old has to worry about? I'll be pissed if that happens to me >;)

Who was it that I said would just come in and look at the ball and it scare it over the wall? He could teach a no-arm swordsman like Roger a nice knuckler, all things considered...

102 , 105 Was that a Ball Four reference? "The Fat Kid" is how Bouton and other pitchers referred to Harmon Killebrew. But they said it with shock and awe.

112 Obviously, Girardi needed to work on his witty retorts that spring. "This ain't Timbuktu yunnow" would've worked a lot better. If he wanted to be topical, he could've replaced Timbuktu with Bahgdad, Beijing or The Oval Office. Too bad he didn't get the beer; then the foaming-at-the-mouth visual would have a lot more substance.

Hm. This from Tyler Kepner:

"Alex Rodriguez could get a new contract from the Yankees that pays him at least $300 million if Rodriguez breaks Barry Bonds's career home run record, according to two people involved with the negotiations."

I thought that was against MLB rules. My understanding was that you could base incentives on things like games played or plate appearances, but not on performance benchmarks like batting average or HRs.

114 Not to worry. I'm out of my 40s, and my bladder control is just fine.

Most of the time, anyway.

Izzy/Wilson/Pulsiper is such a cautionary tale nowadays that teams go out of their way to protect their young pitching. This is why the Yankees' young guys have had innings caps and other useage restrictions (Joba rules). Looking at what the Mets did to Izzy and Wilson in particular... that's friggin' criminal. Pulsiper didn't have the same huge jumps in innings, but any 20-year old arm absorbing 200+ innings is questionable.

The point is that Hughes and Chamberlain in particular (and Kennedy, but a little less so) have been protected. The problem is less "OMG they could blow out their arms tomorrow!" (which could, of course, happen) but that they will be limited to ~150 innings each next season. Kennedy should be ok for ~180.

112 God, but that's cool!

If only Joe the First had showed such moxy over those infernal bugs.

115 :)

I didn't know that.

I was speaking of Cabrera.

118 brilliant. i just did a spit take. i need a new laptop anyway.

115 Everyone picks on the fat kid. I was the fat kid in elementary school for three of those years, but I was more of the "bring it!" fat than the "dopey" fat. Then the growth spurt kicked in and I was suddenly and forever "cute". >:P

123 i'd rather have a childhood of character building taunting, followed by a lifetime of being "cute" over the homely existence i've been enduring... and will continue to experience... until i die.

121 I understood that you meant Cabrera. It was just more apt than you knew.

Michael-Kay-ironically, Killebrew and Cabrera have identical career OPS+ of 143. Of course, Cabrera's only 24, so he's probably still getting better.

119 I like to cite the A's famous "Four Aces" - Todd Van Poppell, Don Peters, Dave Zancanaro and Kirk Dressendorfer.

119 That is something that has perplexed me. With pitchers theoretically being bigger and stronger nowadays, why can't a youngster throw 200+ innings.

Don Sutton, Jim Palmer, Catfish Hunter, Luis Tiant, Nolan Ryan, Jim Kaat, among others, had crazy workloads when they were in their teens/twenties.

126 Ouch! On a lot of levels.

124 You're allowed to sit at my table, pal... one of the perks of being... um, "having to meet with a social worker in school once a week" was that I sat at my own table during lunch, which was supposed to be a punishment of sorts, but I thought it was the coolest thing. So did the rest of my classmates, who eventually took turns migrating over to my table anyway. I never did understand the concept of building character, though I can think of worse ways to do it.

127 So did a whole lot of other pitchers who didn't survive it so well. In fact, both Palmer and Tiant had to come back from pretty significant arm problems.

123 For the record, I never have, nor would I ever pick on the fat kid.

But when that fat kid's allegedly the Second Coming of Babe Ruth, all bets are off.

:)

126 Who the hell was Don Peters??

105 That changeup might go as the most mysterious pitch "never" used.

106 Yes bringing Cynthia into it was not needed - I think I would use the bat he hit his 500th homerun with.

No Ha on the back of the shirts - any news on the slogan though?

112 Nice story. But I could defintely do without the glasses and fake stache.

Guess we are letting the Mets have a little bit of time today - but what's going to happen tomorrow - Roger decides he wants to play 1b?

"Michael-Kay ironically!"

ha ha hah ah aha hah ah aha !!!!

133 I think I saw it used once, maybe twice in Tampa.

Sick and wrong, it was.

What's he waiting for?

This season went from disaster to looking pretty good in a matter of days

133 I hereby designate Mo's changeup as "The 134 Pitch" >;)

137 that could also be applied to any of carl pavano's alleged pitches.

130 Exactly, and even in those that were listed, Catfish and Don Sutton are still exceptions. Sutton in particular, I don't think that guy missed a start for 15 years.

Even if the kids are brought along slowly, there's no guarantee that they won't get hurt. It's the very rare pitcher that makes it through a career without having some kind of surgery on his arm or shoulder.

Man am I in mixed feeling land today. I loved A-Rod for four years, defended him to anyone and when he opted out, I believe I wrote something on here like: "He's dead to me."

Now, I'm all confused. I had sort of moved on, was adjusting to the hole he would leave in our lineup but glad to be rid of the circus and the need to defend him to any and everyone. But, then he seems to man up, come crawling back and say that being a Yankee is more important to him than anything.

That, and he's the best player in the game coming off a monster season. What to think? What to think?

130 Yes they did, but they were able to recover, and have long productive careers throwing 200 & 300+ innings.

138 Not really... at this point, no one's really wondering what happened to them...

140 "He's dead to me."

yeah... there'll likely be a zombie at 3B for a lot of us. we'll get used to it in a hurry, though.

124 Try being the smallest kid in class in every accelerated track there is. The other kids just love that.

140 Think "friends with benefits" >;)

141 I guess this topic (youth & workload) bears to be researched; perception isn't always reality.

Reason 516 why Hank Steinbrenner should watch what he says...

http://tinyurl.com/2xshhp

Do you go 4 years on Mo? I mean, how do you deal with him aging? At some point he won't be an effective closer, would he be receptive to being "demoted" in year 3 or 4?

123 ,124 ,144 I can see this becoming a "Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reindeer Moment" thread at any moment... but you're welcome to join the table, fellow misfits all >;)

145 Think "stripper cooties" :)

148 Ha ha, thanks. You'd think with all that supposed IQ I would have learned that small kids don't pick fights. Man did I get beaten up; a lot.

140 He's a great player that happens to be a jackass. Root for the front of the uniform.

A few years ago, Steve Goldman listed 5 pitchers who had pitched x innings by age y. One was Tom Seaver. Three others were done by age 30. The fifth (and the point of the article) was Andy Pettitte.

152 It may have been players that averaged over 200 innings in their first 5 seasons.

150 I dunno, it didn't stop Napoleon... or Joe Pesci... or Prince...

154 Napoleon ended up exiled and I'm not as funny or plain weirdly talented as the latter two. Oh well.

154 or Dustin Pedroia...

146 et al - its not just the innings, its the effort applied. People marvel at Livan Hernandez throwing so many innings. But he throws a lot of pitches with very little effort, changes speeds (from damn slow all the way down to super slow), and saves the gas for when he needs it. Not everyone can go do that and succeed. (And I'm not saying Livan is necessarily "succeeding" by doing this.) Against, say, the 2007 Yankees lineup, who would dare do that? Because if you hung a couple too many 70 MPH pitches to almost anyone in the lineup, you'd be done.

Look at Bob Feller - he threw so hard and he pitched over 320 innings at age 21 (in 1940). Who says he was throwing 97 every pitch? But that's the inference that gets made anyway. Look at the lineups he was facing. Take the 1940 Senators - last in the AL in walks, homers, OBP, and SLG. As a team they hit .271/.329/.374 with 52 home runs. 52! Feller probably got most of them out by throwing with half effort at most. Put him in the AL circa 2007 and no way he throws 320 innings; he wouldn't be able to conserve his gas.

156 wasn't he one of the midges, or am I thinking of somebody else?

151 Yup, he certainly is a jackass. http://tinyurl.com/2nvlrh

158 You must be thinking of the one who dates Moose in Archie Comics...

156 or Eddie Gadael...

what do you think about the talk about the yankees signing mike lowell to play first base?

http://blogs.msg.com/gameon/2007/11/yankees-offer-m.html

158 LOL. Good one, Sliced. And to think he did all that buzzing around with a broken bone in his left wing...

159 I'm not sure what your point is.

159 As Weeping would likely say, "Oh, you..."

146 Here's some research... I compiled the list of pitchers who threw more than 250 innings in a season before the age of 23. I then went and looked at the age when they last pitched in the league. This is, IMO, an under representation of the damage done to most young arms, because a lot of the players on the list "hung on" until they were 35 or 36 despite being very ineffective. Then there's Eck, who switched to relieving and is therefore not a good comparison. Anyway, for every Bert Blyleven and Tom Seaver, there's a Don Drysdale (out of baseball at 32), for every Vida Blue there's a Larry Dierker (out at 30).

Take a look:
http://tinyurl.com/38hubk

If you'd like to extend the data past 250 innings, here's my source data:

www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/peNz

161 And pay $60M to give up their first round pick? HA!

This is supposed to be a deep draft, and if we've learned anything, the Yanks now value their draft picks highly. If they lost the 1st round pick by signing Lowell, they have no way of getting it back, because all the Yanks' Type A FAs are either back (Po), almost back (Mo & A-Rod), or not going anywhere else if he isn't back (Pettitte).

163 Sarcasm... in stores now! (Comes in Dripping, Oozing and Frozen from Concentrate) yum.

166 My eyes!!!

166 What he said.

161 A lame attempt at keeping lowells price up to the sox, as the strategic timing of arod's announcement couldn't have come at a worse time. the yankees and red sox need for a 3b should have been used to jack up prices. sigh.

Baseball Trading Economics 101
http://baseballanalysts.com/
Well worth reading. What is Santana worth?

167 Way to ruin a good snap. That second comment was for 165 ... lesson: don't laugh while typing your jokes.

161 Bad, Bad, Bad idea. Didn't want him that much at 3rd.

167 Barry Bonds is a very charitable man. Curt Schilling devotes an enormous amount of time and energy to ALS.

Being involved in charities is not mutually exclusive from behaving like a jackass.

by the way, if anyone thinks that boras didn't have this as part of his plan, then they've been outsmarted.
he went to arod and said look, no matter what, you're at least gonna get about 270 from the yankees, we might as well test the market and see what we can get. in their eyes it was worth risking 30 mil to try to get 70 more. Especially when you consider the fact that the Boras cut is considerably larger then if he just signed an extension.

NL Cy Young:

Peavy was a no-brainer. Webb was a deserving #2. Penny was a reasonable #3. But Smoltz and Hudson belonged in 2-3 mix. Smoltz got only 2 third-place votes, while Hudson was snubbed.

My own "ballot":
#1 Peavy
#2 Webb
#3 Hudson (just edging out Penny and Smoltz)

171 Are you insulting my Google Spreadsheet construction? At least it's better than the web design the BBWAA uses. I think I'm still seeing spots from the pages Bob T linked.

176 (Waiting to stop laughing, hold on...)

165 Perhaps you can add a new column for last year with ERA+ of 120 or more.

176 (Hoo-boy!) No, i wasn't making fun of your construction; I'm much easier to tickle than that. I was laughing for how much effort you devoted to proving the point. Not that there's anything at all wrong about it (it's an admirable task, in fact), mind you, it's just that I'm pretty far out in left field for no apparent reason, so I'm finding humor in just about anything right now. I guess it means I must renew my appointments with the social worker this off-season.

Actually, this whole hot-stove drama is ludicrous, so I can't see why no one else is laughing harder than me at this point... thus, "my eyes!!!"

179 Fair enough. To be honest it seemed a lot more interesting than reading a sixth straight paper about the genetics of self-incompatibility in plants. And it didn't take that much effort. And I'm in a mood to pile as much evidence as possible against people who stop by making wildly illogical claims.

I've moved on to watching old Monty Python sketches. Carry on.

179 Did I say easier? I was laughing at something deep, so I should say it was a much harder spot to tickle. That does it, I'm off to see Uncle Woodrow... >;)

180 A splendid idea. I'll bring some of those with me. And FWIW I can see where comparing genetics and self-incompatibility would put you in that mood >;)

178 Updated and republished, just for you :-)

Interestingly, of the 32 pitchers, six never had a season of ERA+ of 120, and three others had their best seasons while hurling 250+ innings under the age of 24.

180 If you feel like reading about enhancons, drop me a line.

167 I don't think anyone on here is saying that A-Rod is evil, just that sometimes he acts like a bit of a (self-defeating) schmuck. I'm willing to believe that Alex wants to remain a Yankee, but I just don't see someone like Jeter making the kind of PR gaffe that Alex made with the timing of the opt out. Look, I understand waffling, when I had to choose a job a couple of years ago I stopped eating for two weeks I was so stressed. I don't think A-Rod does any of these things while twitching his evil mustaches, he just screws up and acts like an ass sometimes.

171 Aww shoot, and here I thought you were as dismayed by the thought of the Yanks giving up their first round pick as I was, Chyll. =)

185 "I just don't see someone like Jeter making the kind of PR gaffe that Alex made with the timing of the opt out."

"he just screws up and acts like an ass sometimes."

You're exactly right, but I find the difference funny. Jeter almost never says the "wrong" thing at any time, something that probably few Yankee fans could do as well as he does.

Meanwhile, A-Rod does exactly what you said - which is probably what most Yankee fans would do in the situation too.

And yet so many more fans feel more of a connection with Jeter than A-Rod. I don't get the contradiction.

Woah, Bonds just got indicted. I'd say that drops his FA asking price.

187 I don't think that's it. I think its that Jeter is homegrown and part of the dynasty years. Had their positions been reversed (Jeter comes in later, A-Rod started with the Yankees) I think the fan sentiment would be reversed. A-Rod would be the lovable guy who speaks his mind, and Jeter would be a PR robot. People forget that A-Rod used to be beloved in Seattle.

I don't know, I must be in the minority, but I try to imagine 2012 and wonder what a bald, wrinkling Mariano Rivera looks like with a 85 mph fastball and fans wondering WTF? Signing Posada for four years makes sense because as long as he hits, you can put him at First a la Yogi and Howard in their later years. But a closer at 42? Oh, well, can't imagine him in any other uniform but I'm willing to bet a lot will be written that year that he's washed up.

188 Wow. It's not even on ESPN.com yet. I found it on Yahoo and CNN.com

183 About as I expected. Only 8 of 32 had an effective season (as a starter) beyond age 32, and only 6 had an effective season after age 33. Definitely something to keep in mind when signing free agent pitchers!

Yeah, its breaking news on si.com, no story up yet.

You guys still want him? I'll take a pass.

193 Yeah it will be tough to hit homers from jail. I doubt that these charges would be filed if there weren't already overwhelming evidence for a conviction. Bonds' legal team is pretty legendary.

For a more in-depth, but poorly written article, go to:

http://www.ktvu.com/news/14606146/detail.html

194 Can he even leave the state of CA? maybe he can just play home games for the Dodgers? ;)

http://tinyurl.com/25nf93

Mona Lisa: http://tinyurl.com/2t273p

Bonds: Perjury and obstruction of justice......no tax evasion. He'll walk. His testimony was that he didn't knowingly take steroids......if that's the best the Feds can do after 4 years they'll lose.

198 Really? After 4 years, I'd think they didn't indict on a whim. They must have something.

NONONONONONONO. NO!
http://www1.whdh.com/news/articles/sports/BO66884/

199 I agree.

200 Old news, we all hope its a abberation or a bad rumor. Move along, nothing to see here.

p.s. I share your sentiment.

How can you prove he knew? Unless Greg is testifying directly against him, it seems like a stretch. And maybe it's bacuase they have 4 years into it, and they want something to show for it.

198 Put another way, federal grand juries tend to indict only when they think they can win. In a case this high profile, it'd be a huge mistake to indict and then lose on all counts. Bonds may wriggle out of this, but its not gonna be a walk in the park. His baseball career is likely over.

199 Unfortunately, they do. I've seen completely worthless indictments over the past 30 years. Unless they got Greg Anderson to turn they'll have a very weak case. This is done for show for all the time and expense they've put in and the deadline for dismissing the Grand Jury coming up in a few days. If they really had anything they would have indicted him years ago.

200 Lowell at First is a bad idea. I'd rather have Juan Miranda.

204 If Bond's people think the Feds have nothing, I bet Bonds plays in 2008. I agree with 2005 . The Feds almost HAVE to go to court, they have sooooooooo much invested. But really, what came out in the last month that has this happening now? The Mitchell report? I hardly think that has anything new on Bonds.

And I'm not a lawyer, but isn't proving that someone intentionally lied, is very difficult?

207 See Libby, Scooter.

200 Please sign with the OTHER three teams. (funny the Cardinals are mentioned in there, I'd imagine the price for Rolen would drop if Lowell accepts)

The thing is I HOPE Lowell signs with The Sox again. I fear that if Lowell flees the Sox will make a deal with the fish for Cabrera. Can't imagine the damage he could do in that park and hitting behind Manny.

It's funny with all the talk about ARods 'greed'...
Can there be a better park in MLB for Lowell's swing then Fenway?
He's coming off one of his best years...
He just won the WS with the Sox...
He just won MVP for said WS...
He is adored by the Fans in Boston...

Could there possibly be a stronger case for Lowell to re-sign with the Sox?
And yet he is looking elsewhere.
Should Mike Lowell be the new 'face of Greed'?
(Or Mo Rivera?)

we gotta give mo the same comment we gave damon. you have 45 mil, and you can spread it out over however many years you want.

186 All things are relative, Shaun >;)

187 Most fans identify with with Jeter because he displays a manner that's the ideal; independent, rock star, but always in control and at ease with himself. A-Rod seems very conflicted and needy, and certainly not in control of his own life. It's like the difference between being a self-made millionaire and earning a multi-million dollar salary as CEO of a multi-billion dollar corporation.

I might have said this before, but if A-Rod wanted to make a huge impression and go a long way in changing people's perception of him, he'd cut Boras loose after this fiasco. He could also take some pointers from the people who do have the kind of character aspects he desires (would Casey Close be a better advisor in this respect than Boras? Look what he's helped Jeter do.) Something to consider, though not likely to occur.

210 worst... poem... ever!! >;)

199 Obviously you are not familiar with "People of the State of New York v. Ham Sandwich"

212 "(when Alex was 8) Rodriguez's father announced his intention to move back north to New Jersey for a short time. He never returned, abandoning Rodriguez and his mother. His mother took two jobs to support Alex, his brother Joe and his sister"

I am not a psychologist, and if there is one here, please chime in. From what I know, abandonment by a parent at a young age leaves a permanent mark on a child. It is not unusual for the child to seek out 'father figures' for the rest of his adult life. Both Pinella and especially Boras fill this role. It is why, even though Boras may have made a big time mistake here, Alex will stand by him.

Is ARod insecure? It certainly seems so. So am I, but my father never left me. I'm not sure why his insecurity gets 10 times as much 'air time' as all the MLB druggers, wife beaters and other criminals put together.

Why is this such a big issue? Is it that criminal? In this case, he took responsibility for both his and Boras's role in this, and made things right.

ARod is vulerable. He has admitted to getting professional help to try and deal with his issues. Last year, he made tremendous personal progress in the way he dealt with the press, and playing baseball. Now he has eaten a little crow to make things with the Yankees right.

He is a great ballplayer and very rich, but still has personal struggles. I have a lot of respect for him. I see him as a good guy who tries to do the right thing. I simply don't know why people need to pile on him.

Why do we keep trying to make Red Sox from the WS teams into our first basemen?

199 ,214 I kid, of course, about the ease by which the prosecution can obtain an indictment, but the burden of proof is extraordinarily lower with a grand jury than a petit jury. Federal grand juries do not even require the prosecution to present exculpatory evidence, that is why the petit jury system exists.

212 I've always loved watching Jeter play, and he says the right thing professionally. I can't say that I've ever identified with him, because, frankly, there's no there there. Between the lines, he's got a great personality; outside, he's never seemed to me to have much at all.

That's not a criticism, because I don't really care that much about what he's like outside. I don't care that much about Rodriguez's personality, either, though I don't understand why people demonize his every word. I just like watching them play ball.

And we have a deal!

Hooray!

Jeter is a tax cheat.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,311830,00.html

New York state tax officials want Jeter to fork over what could be hundreds of thousands — even millions of dollars— in back taxes and interest for the years 2001 to 2003, when the baseball shortstop claimed residency in Florida, despite his high-profile presence in New York's sports and gossip pages during that time.

It looks like Anderson might testify against Barry.

No honor among thieves.

219 220 Link?

215 Very eloquently said, OYF. A very refreshing breath of compassion.

Okay, it's at espn.com: they've agreed to the "outline" of a ten year, $275M deal.

Huh. The teaser says that they agreed to an outline of details. An outline of details. Hm.

223 ESPN

Way off target, but did anybody see David Pinto's probabilistic model of range chart for RFs this year? The Yankees rank third in RF range. I guess Bobby's wallophobia doesn't affect his efficiency as much as we all thought.

225 Yeah, it is kind of like a detailed summary.

Its time for ESPN to get realistic and rename their site: "ESPN and Alex" or "APSN". A least we need a permenant column for news. Why should we always have to hunt around their site for ARod news? Once Bonds is out, ARod will be the only reason to go to ESPN.

224 If Alex is a man going through life just trying to do the right thing, we may have finally found something he's not good at.

204 etc, The indictment itself means nothing as far as proof - innocent until proven guilty. The notion that a grand jury would only indict if they had solid evidence is off base, the stand quip about grand juries is "a grand jury would indict a ham sandwich".

231 Don't federal indictments have something like a 98 percent conviction rate?

Yeah, a federal prosecutor can get an indictment if she wants one. But it's hard to see why one would want to indict Bonds if there isn't enough evidence to convict.

I'm assuming Greg Anderson turned state's evidence.

232 The Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution requires a grand jury indictment for federal criminal charges. So unless you think there is a 98% conviction rate for all federal cases, no. not even close.

233 So we should just assume guilt based on the prosecutors word & grand jury's rubber stamp?

Sorry I'm being argumentative folks, but "indicted by a federal grand jury" is just a turn of phrase the press likes to use & is a misleading usage of $500 worth of words when they should just say "indicted" and save themselves some ink.

234 Ummmm.

Are you disagreeing with my opinion that the prosecutor wouldn't try for an indictment if he didn't think he could convict Bonds? If you're going to be argumentative, I'd like to know what we're arguing about.

234 Actually, I think we assumed guilt before the indictment.

In any case, I think this pretty well ends any talk of signing Bonds for next season.

235 So are prosecutors seeking indictments against people they think aren't guilty of crimes? I would hope they adhere to their ethical responsibilities to seek the truth and indict only those they believe are guilty. (as a card carrying Bolshevik I note that with no small sense of irony) Since they don't convict in every case I would have to say that ny2dc makes a great point. Just because one is indicted doesn't mean there will be a conviction. However I would say that given the amount of work and time spent on this thing the prosecutor must really feel good about proving this case beyond a reasonable doubt; he'll look like a clown if he doesn't. So I think you make a good point as well.

The old joke around the courthouse is: "...any slob can convict the guilty, it takes real talent to convict the innocent." I get the sense you must have heard that one.

I say offer Bonds a $5m contract NOW!

The Yankees still must draft the agreement with Rodriguez's agent, Scott Boras. Asked whether the only remaining details were putting the deal on paper, Steinbrenner responded: "pretty much so."

Unreal. This is really amazing.

Steinbrenner said he thinks that had Rodriguez tested the free-agent market, he would have gotten a more lucrative contract and cited the interest of the Los Angeles Dodgers, led by new manager Joe Torre, and perhaps other teams.

"There are a few cynics who say, 'Well, he really couldn't get this there,' " Steinbrenner said. "Trust me, he would have gotten probably more. He is making a sacrifice to be a Yankee, there's no question. ... He showed what was really in his heart and what he really wanted."

238 I guess this thread is done, but yeah, that's my point.
The conviction rate in federal court really is very high -- probably not 98%, but it's very high. In a case like this one, with the publicity it's going to get, there will be a significant cost to the federal prosecutor if they indict and then Bonds walks. So, we can be confident that the US Attorney's office believes they have the evidence to convict.

It goes without saying that this doesn't guarantee a conviction! But the fact that it is really easy for the feds to indict someone, even on pretty scanty evidence, does not mean that the indictment indicates no more than scanty evidence. It indicates a lot more than that.