Andy! Come back!

PLEASE!!!

As Cashman said this is a need more than just a want.
And it doesn't sound like we will know anything anytime soon from Andy.

I think it's time for some good news - any chance we will hear about Mo or Posada soon?
If Schill and Maddux can re-sign so quickly, I hope at least one of our FAs signs fast.

Cashman has made it clear to Andy that the Yankees want him (need him, even) back. That is the sort of thing that is apparently very important to Pettitte. So I don't know what more Cashman can do on this for now... beyond resigning Posada and Mo, of course. Get it done, Cashman.

On a news day when the Yankees could have used something positive, Andy's indecision was an unwelcomed development. You have Posada going to the Mets, Arod being entertained by the Mets/Red Sox, Torre in LA, Schilling close to resigning in Boston...and another player turning the Yankees down.

As bleak as things look, I still hope Cashman sticks to his plan and doesn't trade the farm or jump into overpriced/under productive free agents. I can live with the uncertainty of 2008. Still, it would be nice if Andy could come to a decision ASAP, and even better if he decides to pitch for one more year.

Might be time to offer a 2-year deal and dangle the carrot of starting the first game at the new Stadium...

For the first time in a while, the Yankees had a payroll sitting under $100mn in November (now at $115+mn after picking up Abreu's option). Of course, they only have committed sums for nine players (including $20mn owed to Farnsworth, Pavano and Igawa). I can't remember the last time the Yankees had this many locked in young players combined with so few committed veterans.

Andy, come back! Any kind of fool could see, we need your arm and we just can't win without you.

william you are depressing us even more :{- first you say "you have posada going to the mets" - although i know fas can't sign with new teams yet in my head, i had to check to make sure this actually hadn't happened. then you point out who $20mn is owed to.

The Sox have re-inked Schilling to a one-year deal for $8M, with about another $2M in incentives. According to Buster O.

8 Sorry about that...I was just referring to headlines and rumors contrasted against the word that Pettitte might not be back.

I know the $20mn figure is depressing, but as of now, the Yankees are only committed to four players in 2009 for a total of $50mn. Then in 2010, that number drops to two...Derek Jeter and (drum roll please) Key Igawa. Of course, something tells me Cano, Joba, Phil and Wang will still be around too, but those sums have yet to be doled out.

9 That's a very impressive hometown discount. Say all you want about Schilling, but he certainly put his money with his mouth is.

9 Hmmm...a one year deal with a pay cut and incentives...that sounds familiar, right Joe? :)

I'm dropping off the board until next March. Right now I find it impossible not to feel let down with every new piece of bad news. I still blame it all on the midges and the number 13 Arod chose to wear. How did we get to this point? I still barely understand the reason the Yankees are building a new stadium and why the City let them do it. I don't understand why Cashman didn't foresee losing Posada, A-rod and Mo. He's become our own Dan Duquette.

13 Dude, it's November 6. Most free agents won't sign until after the arbitration period (which ends December 7). Until then, all this stuff is just rumor. I have very little doubt that Pettitte, Rivera, and Posada will be back wearing pinstripes next year. I also think that Cashman will make something happen. For example:

On January 28, 2004 we thought the Yankees' starting third baseman would be Aaron Boone.
On February 8, 2004, we thought the Yankees' starting third baseman would be Mike Lamb.

Sometimes, things happen pretty late in the free agent season. It's a process, and I have faith in the people running the Yankees that it will all come together. Don't let it get you down.

13 You can certainly argue that Cashman should have wrapped up Mo and Posada in the Spring, although I am sure most people would have taken a wait-and-see approach with Jorge. I don't think anyone expected him to blow his career best season out of the water. Still, it's a fair criticism.

As for Arod, I don't think you can blame Cashman. For starters, four years ago, I don't think anyone would have thought it would be in Arod's best interest to opt out of $27mn per year. Regardless, the option was in Arod's contract. Furthermore, in the initial Red Sox trade, Arod was giving up some money on the backend for the right to opt out earlier (which was genius on Boras parts: give up money you are forfeiting anyway for the right to be a free agent sooner). So, in that regard, Cashman did a good job making sure he got the full four years out of Arod. Of course, he probably had nothing to do with that development, but if he is criticized for things beyond his control, he should get credit for the as well.

5 Great idea! I'd go for it, and I think Pettitte would too. It doesn't bother me that he opted out, it's neither good nor bad news. It's consistent with what he's been saying, he'll either pitch for the Yanks or retire. He's always been one to take some time to recharge after the season before making decisions. He didn't sign with Houston until Dec 11 and he didn't re-sign with the Yanks until Dec 9.

I'm betting he'll come around once Mo and Jorgie sign, which they will (13 cheer up Bob B, it's just the rumor mill!).

15 I think it made sense to wait on both Jorgie and Mo. not only because they're both getting old but because of the domino implications. If they sign one, they'd have to sign both or the other would get ticked off, plus they'd have to deal with A-Rod prematurely and maybe Abreu as well. There were too many question marks and variables to even jump into that pool. Taking an organizational stance against such negotiations made it not so much of a personal affront to the players. Locking players up too early for too long is what keeps teams like the Pirates at the bottom of the barrel.

Also, 15 , great point about A-Rod. The Yanks only paid, what, $17M per year for two (we assume) MVPs and a minimum of 35 HR / 106 RBI per year? I like that perspective!

5 I suspect it will end up as a 2-year deal. It's a smart move by Pettitte to make them renegotiate.

15 Cashman really shouldn't take any heat for Rodriguez's free agency. I don't see any way it's his fault.

And FWIW, I think it still wasn't in Alex's best interest to opt out of $27M/yr with the Yankees.

I am not a believer in omens, but I was playing MBL 2007 this weekend on my Playstation and at the end of the 07 season, Mo retired. So, moving into 08, Vizcaino is my closer.

Oy Vey.

..........perhaps I am wrong, but I think The Clemens deal last season has dramatically changed the landscape. A Rod walking on $27m, Andy on $16m.....can collution part 2 be far behind???

19 That's why they make reset buttons.

Kevin Davidoff of Newsday suggest the Yankees should go after Scott Rolen:

ttp://tinyurl.com/2qlrl8

Rolen has 3 years and $36M left on his contract, and is 32 years old. He is certainly cheaper than Mike Lowell, since the Cardinals are probably looking to dump him- perhaps a Bobby Abreu trade might get it done. No way Lowell signs for less than $12M per year, and he's a year older than Rolen.

Of course, there's injury concerns and the .265/.331/.398 line Rolen put up last year. Rolen's defense wasn't down much last year even with the injury, as the Fielding Bible has him a close second to Pedro Feliz, as does THT's UZR, and BP has him at a 118 RATE for last year (above his career average).

There's no question that even a struggling Rolen can hit better than Joe Crede, and probably better than Wilson Betemit. Only Atkins and Lowell (among the realistic candidates, I don't consider Cabrera one of them) would give Rolen competition, and Rolen is better with the glove than both of them.

10 ah - it's okay - you are just reporting facts even as depressing as some may be.

the future is bright (whether that's next year or 2009) and i do have faith in cashman that the 2008 roster will not be the worst case scenario and will likely be much better than any doomsday rosters.

i may have my facts wrong, so i apologize ahead of time if i do, but once cashman said he would negotiate with arod during the season (which is against organizational philosophy) shouldn't he have also tried to negotiate with mo and posada? (if he did, and they turned him down, then sorry).

23 I remember that happening too, and I remember either Mo or Posada taking a bit of offense to that development, solidifying their resolve in testing free agency this off season.

That Davidoff article I linked in 22 includes a guess that Rivera will sign a 3 yr/$40M contract soon. I don't know why that wasn't higher in the article, seems like pretty big news...

I do not agree that this is neither good news nor bad news. It is certainly not good news, and can easily be seen as at least slightly negative in that it makes the signings of Mo and Po that much more critical. And don't think they or their agents don't know that. Make no mistake - the price of tea in China just went up, and that's never a good thing, even for a super rich team like the Yanks.

Also, it ups the imperative to do something "stupid" like trade some of our younguns for Kazmir or Santana, just in case Pettitte does in fact retire.

All that said, I do think Mo and Po will be back, just now at slightly higher cost. And we already knew that Po was going to make us sweat it out a little longer anyway.

I also think Pettitte will be back, and I've long lobbied for an additional option year, say at $18mm, for '09, as added incentive. I don't believe he'd abuse that if his '08 were not so great.

Overall though, I do love the medium term (call it 3-5 year) roster flexibility Cashman has. If we wanted to make some blow out 4 year offers for guys like Hunter or Jones, we could - say $100mm for 4 years.

22 The injury concerns with Rolen are huge though. His shoulder has been a major problem for years. I don't think the Yankees should be taking gambles like that.

25 If we're going to enter the Centerfielders with Misspelled First Names Sweepstakes, I vote heavily for Andruw over Torii.

23 I think that was an unsubstantiated rumor, although the obvious difference is the Yankees had a $21-30mn incentive to not let Arod reach free agency. Of course, in retropsect, it may wind up costing the Yankees a similar amount for making Posada and Rivera wait until after the season.

26 Even if the trade is Tyler Clippard and some Class A guys, like the Abreu trade? Betemit's still on the roster if Rolen gets hurt, and if it works out, the Yankees have their big righty bat.

17 Whatever, he's no Scotty Brosius.

24 28 Here is an article from ESPN from July about that situation.

http://tinyurl.com/2zx7yu

From what I can surmise - arod never considered extending during the season, posada wanted to test free agency (uncleasr whether he was offered to extend during the season), and it seems to mo was never made an extension offer during the season.

29 If the plan is to go with a Betemit platoon anyway, then an Abreu-like deal for Rolen makes sense because your original plan is your worst case fallback. Of course, there is also the possibility that you'll wind up with the 2007 version of Rolen playing everyday.

In other words, you have to consider the opportunity cost. Before exploring Cabrera, Glauss and several other options, I wouldn't want to simply settle on Rolen. If the only alternative is Crede or Betemit, then yes, I guess I'd take a shot.

32 Of course, with the numerous options available at third base, most people (including us) seem to be forgetting that the Yankees still don't have a first baseman. Are Jason Giambi and Shelley Duncan really the answer?

The first base free agent pool has to be the worst I've ever seen: Sean Casey. Tony Clark. Julio Franco. Greg Norton. I fear we'll see Minky back again. shudders

i will probably take some heat for even suggesting this, and i do so be grudgingly, but what if pettitte is waiting to make a decision after the mitchell report is released?

when grimsley sang to the feds a while back, there were whispers in the media that pettitte and clemens were mentioned in his report... grimsley later stated that he never witnessed any doping on andy or roger's part, but...

i wouldn't put some tinkering past clemens, and he was andy's work out partner....

i don't know a thing, obviously. i hope that he never touched the junk, but this is a thought that crossed my mind, and was wondering what you fine people might think about it.

Every so often I'll stop and think about Hughes and Joba pitching next season and really really wish it were spring. Then I go back to normal life.

I have no problem with the Yankees offering 2 years for Andy. It wouldn't even be overpaying for the 2nd year per se. Seeing as Moose and (hahaha) Pavano will be gone after this coming season, they'll need another (hopefully back of the rotation) starter...

And on another note, I don't really have a problem with Schilling going back to the Sox. He doesn't scare me at all anymore, That leaves the Sox rotation much the same as last season, so I suppose that means Lester to the pen? What I would have a problem with is if they somehow used that deal to spin a trade for Santana. Knowing how things go down, the Twins would accept Crisp and Lester while demanding Joba, Hughes, Melky, and A-Jax from the Yanks...

33 I would go with a triple-headed monster of Giambi, Duncan, and Phillips (LIDR) at first base, rather than slecting from the collection of nothings in the FA pool. It won't really matter, because Giambi will get hurt anyway. But, if they can squeeze 400 ABs out of him, and he returns to form at all, that wouldn't be the worst platoon.

33 I guess if the Yankees get a 3B, Betemit could be in the mix at 1B as well. I think the bottom line with 1B is you have to get more out of Giambi, period. I am not sure if he can stay healthy or not, but you almost have to see if he can do it. Sure, the defense will suffer, but some of that will be mitigated by having Damon in LF and shifting Matsui to DH. Also, the ultimate plan could be to sign Andruw, trade Damon and shift Melky to left. Jones might not be a superstar, but an OF of Abreu, Andruw and Melky would more than make up for having a hack at 1B.

36 Ugh, a roster with three first basemen again. I suppose Duncan could be a 5th OF and Phillips could play 2B (not as well as Betemit can, but if he's the starting 3B...). Also I'm pretty sure the Andy Phillips Experiment has run its course, and it's now time for the Shelley Duncan Experiment.

37 I almost like that plan, my only problem being it will be more likely the Yankees can trade Melky than Damon. If Melky is used in a blockbuster that gets the Yanks either a star 1B or 3B, then I like signing Jones a lot. I like the kid, but I don't think Melky will ever hit like a corner OF... not that Damon can either, but Melky's much easier to trade.

Posada gets a bunch of calls, but it looks like the Yankees have the edge: http://tinyurl.com/3blafd

Yankes eyeing Lowell, Beltre, Rolen, Cabrera: http://tinyurl.com/2rq3zt

3 years for Rolen? Pass. His shoulder will probably be mush in 2010.

34 Interesting thought process. I just read this AM about Jose Guillen, Matt Williams and a 3rd player who the SF twosome who wrote Book of Shadows uncovered. I think the resources are there to implicate a lot of players, but I think it's going to mainly be HGH. It also appears that the majority of players cut all ties with distributors in '05 (or at least on paper). I have a feeling that the whole circus will be fairly pedestrian and will result in slaps on the wrist if anything at all.

Jose Guillen and Matt Williams bought a bunch of steroids: http://tinyurl.com/3xzmcz

I knew I should have refreshed.

22 et al

Hey! Is Davidoff reading the Banter?

"61. Comrade Al 2007-11-05 13:34:11
Scott Rolen is said to be "open to waiving his no-trade clause". Do we care?"

"63. Shaun P 2007-11-05 13:38:44
61 It depends. Would Scott Rolen's right shoulder, on seeing Scott Proctor's right shoulder, shout out: MY LONG LOST COUSIN! and break down in tears?

If so, than I think the Yanks best pass on Rolen.

But IF Rolen is healthy - a huge IF - I say hell yes. He's a righty, he's a "big bat", he's a great defender, and if the Yanks are willing to eat all his remaining salary ($36M over 3 years), the Cards might not ask for much in return. Clippard and, say, Karstens maybe?"

34 42 WW had something about this the other day. And quite a few people jumped on him because apparently the DA has found a lot of holes with this case.

I am a little blind about a few players, and Andy is one, so I don't like to think about him and PEDs. But just saying there is something there - if he wants to come back, wouldn't he want to be under contract if something like this is going to come out?

Also, I heard that the Mitchell report will probably come out after the winter meetings. Do people think this report should be released before a lot of free agent singings take place?

38 I agree with you about Phillips. He's a great kid and I hope he does well, but I think it's time to let him go. They shouldn't use up a roster spot on a LIDR first baseman.

Daily Snooze:
"The biggest sticking point for Posada may wind up being the length of a deal, as the 36-year-old is seeking a four-year pact, according to sources, who said the Yankees have internally discussed an offer of three years and $40 million. With the Mets expected to be one of the teams in the bidding, Posada plans to see what his market value is, though the Yankees likely will do whatever they must in order to retain the popular 11-year veteran."

We could b looking at 4/$56m
It's imperative we sign a decent BUC. Putting Po at DH for 2010 (and beyond) is not that great an option. We may be looking at a .850 OPS guy by then.
We need a BUC who can start 40 games and take over as a LIDR whenever possible. It may mean having a guy who can BBUC, as using a BUC often as a LIDR leaves us vulerable.

How come we are not signing Molina?

34 I've heard that suggested and it's plausible. I am sure Andy would not want to face a hoard of reporters if his name was on the list and retiring after the fact would be a tacit admission of guilt. I really hope that's not the reason, partly because I'd like to see Andy's reputation intact, but also because I'd hate to lose a key starter for that reason.

35 Schilling doesn't scare me either, but he is a good reliable starter in a rotation of kids/question marks. He is kind of like what Pettitte is to the Yankees staff. Getting Schilling for a 1 year discount certainly helps Boston in 2008.

41 The one good thing about getting him: I'd have lots of opportunities to call him Rolen "The Headless Thompson Gunner."

48 One change I am hoping to see from Joe G (and I may be the only that got annoyed by this) is when Posada (positive thinking here) gets a day off and Molina (more positive thinking)is playing - that Girardi does not pinch hit for Molina with Posada and then put Posada in the game for the last few innings.

42 Also interesting is that Seattle just declined Guillen's option after talk about an extension toward the end of last season.

52 In fairness to Seattle's front office, they do have Adam Jones and Wladimir Balentin both ready to step into full time roles, with Ichiro locked into CF and Ibanez (a slightly better hitter than Guillen who costs much less ($5.5M)) needing a space too.

51 That would be a welcome change. Having a halfway decent backup catcher for a full season would also be a welcome change. Does anyone think Colorado would be dumb enough to try Chris Ianetta?

38 There are going to be three firstbasemen no matter what, so I have just resigned myself. Neither Duncan or Giambi can play defense, there will have to be a LIDR--if it's Betemit, that's fine. I just mentioned Phillips, but we can call the spot X if you want. The key for X toi be a flexible, mutiple position player (like Phillips or Betemit, not Minky).

Duncan can sorta play OF, and Giambi will end up at DH a lot.

53 They had those same options when they were talking extension though. Also, why would declining Guillen's option be unfair on the basis of HGH allegations?

Miguel Cabrera is a real enigma. He has a .930 career OPS, and thats playing in a weak lineup. However I have read some articles where he makes Manny look good.

"[Forget] the veterans," he told the Post. "They haven't told me anything and they better not come tell me anything, either.

"I don't want to hear anything else. I want to play baseball, give what I have to give on the field of play, and win. That's all I want. ...

"Everyone here is a grown man," he told the newspaper. "Everyone knows what he's doing. And I'm not going to go crazy worrying about these things."

And Girardi is not a guy who will deal with this well (compared to Torre)

Yet he is so talented, and young. Even with his weight issues, he may be good for 3 or 4 years anyway. His defense is crap, but maybe he will move to 1st base.

The ways things are falling into place, if we want to compete in 2008 and beyond, we need some big bats. As much as I think JoPhilKen will greatly improve our pitching, I don't think we can count on this to the point of 'settling' for position players.

And I still think that Cabrera and Rolan are riskier then Bonds, as well as more expensive. As much as an a-hole that he is, he still takes care of his body and takes pride in his game.

I think Phil, Joba and Cano are the only untouchable kids. I think Brian is going to have to trade some young talent to get talent in return. Considering we are now investing heavily into our Farm system, this may be a good idea, as we should continue to produce talent, and can part with some of what we have.

Is Sanchez MLB ready for the 2nd half of 2008?

23 i seem to remember that, according to stories at the time, after the yankees decided to negotiate with arod, they attempted to negotiate with posada and mariano also, but both said they'd prefer at that point to just wait until after the season.

55 Re: my use of "unfair" - I meant that Seattle's FO has perfectly good reasons for declining Guillen's option apart from these allegations. I don't think it would be 'unfair' for Seattle to decline Guillen's option based on such allegations.

I personally wouldn't do it for that reason alone, but that's just me.

54 Agreed.

56 what is the context of those quotations? standing alone i don't have any problem with them.

5 How would a 2-year offer help? Pettitte chose a player option over a 2-year deal last year to leave himself the flexibility to retire (granted, he could have retired in the middle of a contract, but he did not want create false expectations). Now, Pettitte is faced with the decision of playing another year with the Yankees for $16 million or walking away from the money and spending the time with his family. More money or years will not affect his decision. The only possible method of influence will be from pats-on-the-back from teamates.

15 When the Yanks traded for A-Rod, the market for players was depressed (free agent contracts were topping out at $16-17 million), so opting out of $27 million seemed extremely unlikely.

56 59 I agree that the context of those quotes is needed. For example, not wanting to learn from veterans like Matt Treanor,Jason Wood and Alfredo Amezaga isn't like turning a deaf ear to Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada. If you are the Yankees, you have to have confidence that you can take Cabrera's immense talent and get him to fit in. Ultimately, the bottom line is production, so having a a lot of Manny in him isn't so horrible.

49 I hope that Schilling turns out to be more of a Moose than a Pettitte.

60 "Now, Pettitte is faced with the decision of playing another year with the Yankees for $16 million or walking away from the money and spending the time with his family."

But the option has expired, so now Pettitte has more choices. He has said its "Yankees or retire", and I believe that. But now his agents can ask the Yanks for more money and another year (or two) if he wants. And, given how things are in Yankeeland now, unless he gets crazy ($60M/3 years, say), Pettitte is probably going to get whatever he asks for.

Every dynasty falters eventually (Well, except for Johnny Wooden's UCLA basketball.)

Five years ago, nobody would have turned down a chance to play for the Yankss. Now, ARod and Andy have said "No" and Mo and Jorge have been coy. The Yanks are on a downward spiral.

It's going to take some special action to reverse the slide. There's a chance that 2008 will be a lot worse than 2007. I think a key element has to be doing a better job of bringing along our own stars through the Yankee system.

I hope Cashman and Giardi are given time to fix the team if things fall apart this coming year.

56 They are just quotes from a newspaper. No context was given. In my mind, they reek with attitude.

"...they better not come tell me anything, either."

Who says this about other players on their club?

Bowa AND Maz are joining Joe and Donnie out west (sniffle)

63 I won't be surprised if Pettitte comes back for $16 mill. Last week he referred to it as a "ton of money" or something like that. Even though he would be in a position to demand more, I don't think he will. Not his style. However, he might be interested in one of those Clemens "family plans" and Cashman will have no choice but to give it to him.

I'm a family man myself, and have made career choices based on my desire to be with my wife and kids as much as possible. That said, if I left $16 million on the table to pitch for the Yanks, my wife and kids would punch me square in the head. Pett will be back for one more. If not, I hope he enjoys his time in Texas.

As for Posada... I floated 3 years/$60 mill here last week (to the shock and dismay of several Banterers) and I still believe that's where his deal is headed (especially after Omar puts his wallet on the table, if he hasn't already).

Cashman would happily and wisely give Posada 4 years of pay ($15 million per) for the shorter 3 year commitment.

64 I think that's a little drastic. Arod opted out for $350mn and Pettitte said he wont play for another team. I am not sure how you define downward spiral, but news of the Yankees demise seems to be a bit premature.

65 Who says those quotes are accurate? Or that Cabrera wasn't responding to a situation in which he was wronged. Imagine if Bernie Williams had said those same things about Mel Hall. How would you feel about them?

67 Do you mean $60mn/4 years? Do you really think Posada will get $20mn per year? I'd be shocked. In that case, pay Arod $40mn.

69 Flag! Ridiculous hypothetical. Loss of 15 yards...

70 No $60 mill/3 years, which would be preferable to $60/4. Same amount of money, but shorter commitment. Yeah, it's a lot of "thank you" money, but Posada is aging quite well, appears to be in excellent condition, and is still a switch-hitting power threat, who can also draw walks.

I think even A-Rod would blush at the thought of 40 million per... but he might be worth it if he agreed to a 3 or 4 year deal at that price. Get Boras on the line.

72 Clarification:

ARod might be worth that much to the Yanks, if he wasn't dead to them.

73 who?

72 How is that preferrable? The present value of money compared to future value alone would make it a bad trade off from an economic perspective. It also ignores the chance that Posada might be useful in 4 years. Regardless, the Yankees could simply release Posada after three years and pay him the extra $15mn over 12 months instead of years in advance.

I have to admit, that really makes no sense at all.

74 'zactly.

74 Carl Pavano

75 A deal that could bring Posada back to the Bronx for 3 more years makes no sense at all to you?

75 and in what world is a 3 year deal not preferrable (management-wise) to a 4 year deal when you're talking about a catcher who will be 39-40 years old?

77 who?

There's no limit to the demands. ARod asked for $350m to chat. Clemens got pro rated at $28M. These guys smell money on the table and perhaps some vulnerability. Posada is certainly playing the field, as he should. The shock I think will come with the final price tag. I think Sliced Bread is on to something.

79 When said 3 year deal is for the same money as the 4 year deal. You are giving up an extra year for actually more money. The salary in the 4th year will be less in terms of present day dollars due to inflation.

Yeah, Posada might fall off a cliff in that fourth year. You can always release him, or have a great PH/emergency catcher/DH/1B off the bench.

peter abraham says that girardi and rob thompson showed up at the GM meetings today. girardi was asked about m. cabrera. he said he wouldn't push the FO to get him, but wouldn't advise against it.

safe.

82 My worry would not be a $15M backup; my worry would be a $15M player who's hurt and unable to play at all.

I don't understand the present day dollars. In 2010, Posada isn't paid in 2007 dollars, he's paid in 2010 dollars. Why does it matter is $20M in 2010 dollars is worth only $15M in 2007 dollars?

83 He also said that whatever people say his problems are, Cabrera always played hard for Girardi. I gotta say, that sounds just like something another Joe would say on the matter. Cheers me up a bit, but the three headed hydra resigning would cheer me up a bit more.

78 No...what doesn't make sense is how $60mn/3 years is better than $60mn/4 years.

79 What makes it less preferrable for management is that you are paying the same money for fewer years. Even if you wanted no part of Posada on your team in year 4, it is much less expensive to pay him over a longer term. Once again, why would you rather pay him more money sooner and lose the possibility he is still useful in year 4?

From PeteAbe:
Mariano Rivera: By the end of this week, the Yankees could announce a three-year, $40 million deal for their closer. Rivera was dramatically underpaid when compared to some of his teammates, but this would give him an average annual salary of $13.3 million.

Jorge Posada: This could be a wild ride. Posada almost certainly will not sign with the Yankees before Monday and will enter the market. The Mets, Blue Jays and other teams will get to make him offers and drive the price up. Posada told Newsday that he will meet with the Yankees this week and he clearly wants to stay in New York.

But Posada isn't going to make it easy on the Yankees. The Yankees would like to get him for the same deal as Rivera. But Posada could want a fourth season and closer to $15 million a year.

Argh - "matter if $20M in 2010 dollars"

84 $10 million in 2010 is worth more than in 2011 because of inflation. Think of it this way, if I gave you a hundred bucks now, you could put it in the bank and start earning interest on it. If I gave it to you next year, you'd have less money at the end. Its why you should technically charge interest when lending people money.

84 Due to inflation and opportunity cost, money is always worth more in present terms. Think of it this way...instead of paying Posada an extra $15mn over the first three years of the deal, the Yankees could invest it at 10%. Compounded daily, the Yankees could turn that $15mn into $17.5mn. As a result, the Yankees could save $2.5mn by not paying Posada over three years.

Also, what if Posada is a freak and is actually productive in year 4?

89 OK, I think I get it. $15M in 2011 dollars is worth less than $20M in 2010 dollars, so (from the Yanks' standpoint), it makes more sense to pay out over 4 years because it costs the Yanks less.

So even if Posada does nothing in 2011 but get paid $15M, its still cheaper to the Yanks because the "extra" $5M he'd be paid in 2008 dollars, 2009 dollars, and 2010 dollars (under Sliced's deal) is worth more than $15M in 2011 dollars.

I now see why $60M/3 years is bad from the Yanks' point of view - but wouldn't that make is good from Posada's?

82 I understand the inflation, but it's a safe bet that Posada will have long fallen off the cliff by the 3rd year.
I don't imagine anybody would be happy to have his $15 million on their payroll, and roster 4 years from now.

Why would the Yanks want to put themselves in a position of having to release Jorge Posada at the end of his career? These are the kind of p.r. disasters that can be avoided by throwing a ton of money at him now.

Posada is going to demand 4 years of pay.
There are teams that will gladly employ him for the next 4 years in the $15 million ballpark. He's going to get his money.

I'm saying give him the money, and show him the Yankee love/respect. Give him the Jeter-Giambi money help keep him happy and productive for 3 more years, and be done with him.

At 39 years old, if he's still worth a DH/utlity role, offer him a 1 year final deal ($1.5 mill) like Bernie received.

90 I will be very happy if Posada is productive in 2011, at age 39, but I'm not sure I'd want to bet money on it.

Now, however, if I could make $2.5M on such a bet, I am glad to take it. =)

4 "Posada going to the Mets"?

What the fuck are you talking about?

Please tell me this is some kind of hypothetical issuing forth from that twisted mind of yours, william.

Please tell me that.

91 Yes, that's it precisely.

92 You are then overpaying for 3 years and losing him for a fourth. Paying him the same money for 3 years that you would have over 4 and then offering him anything but negative money costs you even more money. That doesn't make sense. I prefer to ask how much money you are willing to pay him and then stretch it out for as long as you think reasonable.

94 he's a big opera fan. he'll be popping by the metropolitan opera. he may take in two or more performances, thus the plural...

but yeah... he's going to the mets.

oh! you thought-- no! c'mon, people...

93 You lose nothing but releasing him (ok, maybe PR) and I bet he'd still be a valuable bench player/backup C. So you save 2.5 million and get him as a backup C. Sounds like win win to me.

97 Sigh but=by. Long day.

Did anyone read that New Yorker article on Boras? He apparently has sent to MLB a proposal for a 9-game World Series, in which 2 games are played at neutral sites, to drive up interest, Super Bowl style.

I wonder if anywhere in his 900 page binder on A-Rod is an argument that he is a better Game 8 & 9 hitter than anyone else in history, with reams of graphs and data to "prove it."

What about Conor Jackson at 3B?

MLB Trade Rumors is saying that the D'Backs might want to trade him and he's played about a dozen games at the hot corner over his major and minor league career. Plus, he's young, bats righty, and an above average hitter.

Oops. Forgot the link. http://tinyurl.com/yqt4zb

67 That said, if I left $16 million on the table to pitch for the Yanks, my wife and kids would punch me square in the head.

They might be a little more tolerant if you'd already made $92 million.

94 I was just recounting rumors!!

92 Ok...so you are concerned about the pyschological/pr impact of either having an old Posada on the roster or cutting him altogether. That's a reason I guess, but not one that would make me be more willing to pay more money.

94 I was just recounting rumors!!

92 Ok...so you are concerned about the pyschological/pr impact of either having an old Posada on the roster or cutting him altogether. That's a reason I guess, but not one that would make me be more willing to pay more money.

97 It's a win-win if he's still worth something.

bottomline for me is I hope Posada comes back, but I'd hate to see him in a situation, 3 or 4 years from now, where he's resented for being paid a ton of money and taking up a roster spot doing nothing.

If I had the Yanks money, I'd overpay him now in a huge way to keep the commitment short, and ensure a clean break.

96 :)

103 Ah, thank you! You know what the plural of rumors is, don't you?--Data.

Wait, er, that's not quite right...

105 I don't think anyone will resent Posada, but if that is really a concern, you could pay frontload a 4 year deal: maybe $17mn in 2008-2010 and $19mn in 2011.

This way, you could still save some upfront money, allow for the possibility he'd still be productive in year 4 and also avoid having him making an unsightly figure in 2011.

Also, one more thing to consider is that with baseball inflation, $15mn in 2011 might not be that much.

107 That should be $9mn in 2011.

99 Heh. Two more World Series games = two more opportunities for a Boras client to upstage the event.

102 Unless said wife and kids had already spent said $92 million. =)

(My humble apologies to any/all wives and kids (under 21) out there.)

100 Hmm . . . Jackson at 3B vs LHP (.302/.387/.486, 315 ABs career vs LHP), with Duncan (or Andy) at 1B. Then, Betemit at 3B vs RHP with Jackson over at 1B. His career numbers vs RHP aren't super (.270/.350/.419 - very similar to Minky's career vs RHP: .272/.358/.404). But he doesn't have to play 1B vs RHP all the time, and if he could play 3B . . .

Also, Jackson's home/road splits aren't great:
.297/.366/.484, home (career)
.265/.359/.400, road (career)

but he does play lots of road games in pitchers parks (SD, LA, SF), so I wonder if we shouldn't worry about them too much.

107 Makes sense, but would Posada agree to a built-in paycut? My guess is no.

and regardless of baseball inflation, $15 mill will be a ton of money in 2011 if Posada falls off the cliff.

I'd avoid that 4th year (almost) at all costs.

105 I don't think the Yankees should worry too much about P.R. disasters when making such player/contrcat evaluations. In any case, even if Posada falls off the cliff after a couple of years, he would probably make a damn fine BUC (albeit a wildly overpriced one).

Really, three years or four years or fives doesn't matter. The issue is how much total money he's worth.

111 112 Along these lines, I figure Posada is worth 15 to 17 mil/year for three years, or a total of about 50 million. If they can convince him to spread that over four years, great. I agree that 60 million (or more) over four years is not the best way to go.

Who says that Posada is falling off a cliff? He has already broken the rules for aging catchers, so his best comp at this point is Carlton Fisk, who hit until age 42.

Besides, Posada's common mid-summer slumps (which didn't hit this year until October) are mostly attributable to the stress of catching. When he transitions out of the catching position, he should be at least league-average at 1B or DH.

114 Actually, I fear a Rivera implosion quite a bit more. We've seen what happens when he is "just a bit off." If he loses a couple of MPH or a bit of the bite on his cutter, he could be reduced to a commodity reliever. Three years scares me.

111 Why wouldn't he? If his agent is smart, he'd explain to him that "built-in paycuts" in long-term deals actually mean more money. He'd also explain that if he was a free agent in 2011, his "pay cut" would be much greater than $9mn.

Again, I still don't quite get why you'd prefer to pay Posada more money sooner (at a potential net cost of at least $2mn) just to avoid the possibility of his being overpaid in the very same way Jeter will be 2010. The bottom line is backloading contracts is good for the team...paying out the same amount over shorter periods just doesn't make any economic sense.

114 He hasn't really broken the rules yet, he's just had a great season at a surprisingly ripe age. That doesn't change the fact that 36-year-old catchers have a short shelf life.

Also, when catchers get old, they have a tendency to do it precipitously.

Carlton Fisk was an exception - no, make that a freak. Fisk is Posada's closest comp through age 35, but that doesn't even remotely suggest that Posada has the future Fisk had.

Anyone else see this quote in Newsday?

"So when asked Monday if his preference is to return to the Yankees, Posada couldn't get a word in. Laura spoke up for him, saying, "Come on! What do you think?"

http://tinyurl.com/2r2bd2

Given how much attention we've paid to wives and their influence on their husbands, this sounds very promising.

115 Well, perhaps we sell him short as a pitcher. He does have that change. It will be interesting to see precisely whether he can adjust to the decline you speak of.

If he loses those couple of mph or the bite he could still be quite effective if he learns to use the change.

Why develop such a pitch if he's not planning on ever using it?

I actually was a little annoyed that he didn't use it once the whole season, especially while he was struggling. It looked absolutely lethal in spring training.

118 I always liked Posada's wife :)

As for Rivera, assume that he continues his trend of dropping his inning count by four innings/year. He will then average 63 innings/year over the next three years. $40 million will then be $211,640/inning.

By contrast, Roger Clemens made about $175,750/inning this year.

$211,640/inning for a 40-year old closer? Unless he develops Todd Jones-like survival instincts, that one will look really bad.

90 [etc.] ...instead of paying Posada an extra $15mn over the first three years of the deal, the Yankees could invest it at 10%. Compounded daily, the Yankees could turn that $15mn into $17.5mn. As a result, the Yankees could save $2.5mn by not paying Posada over three years.

but the yankees won't be putting that money in such a bank account. they don't set aside the cash for each contract the day it is signed. they earn the cash as time progresses.

the flaw in overpaying over a shorter span for the yankees is that doing do costs them even more due to the luxury tax.

i have no suggestions that are any better than either of these, though. i just hope he comes back.

115 Plus, of course, since his hallmark is that pinpoint control, he could easily be successful throwing at 90, mixing in the change and hitting spots.

119 Granted, but the fact that he didn't use it this year reduces my confidence considerably.

121 When your names are Clemens and Rivera, I guess that's the "respect" you deserve.

122 Are you suggesting that the Yankees aren't run just like every other successful business....that they don't have long-term budget plans and instead live year to year, spending the revenue they make without any long-term investment? I am sure the Yankees have a very sophisticated cash management system in place and would find a way to invest the $2.5mn that they aren't paying to Posada.

As for your point about the luxury tax, that would only hodl weight if you expected the Yankees to dip under it at some point, or if you thought the tax rate would be lower in the future. Because the Yankees have been well above the floor, and project to remain there over the next four years, there really isn't any luxury implication beyond paying more of it sooner (which has the same impact as paying Posada more money sooner).

more from peter abraham at the GM meetings:

Brian Cashman said he can't envision trading Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy. "I know I'm going to be tested," he said. "And while no player is untouchable, some are more untouchable than others."

He went on to say that they didn't develop those pitchers to trade them.

Some people seem convinced a Damon/Crede trade is going to be made soon. However Cashman said he has no significant discussions and Kenny Williams said he has backed off his usual aggressive approach and plans to carefully gauge the market.

Williams did insist that Crede is fully healthy and has already been cleared for baseball activities. But the Yankees think Damon is worth more than Crede and the White Sox don't want to take on Damon's salary.

Theo Epstein said Boston's priority is signing Mike Lowell. What about A-Rod at shortstop? "We have a shortstop," he said.

Marlins exec Larry Beinfest said the Marlins have no interest in talking to Scott Boras about A-Rod. But new Angels GM Tony Reagins welcomed talk about Rodriguez.

114 115 Moreover, Fisk wasn't really all that good in his late 30s, but he had a freakish renaissance around age 40. Look at his OPS+:

Age 34 103
Age 35 134
Age 36 102
Age 37 115
Age 38 60 (!)
Age 39 102
Age 40 155
Age 41 136
Age 42 134
Age 43 97
Age 44 76
Age 45 29

If we assume that Posada follows Fisk's trajectory (itself a problematic assumption), then we have to be prepared to pay 15+ million/year for quite possibly four pretty unspectacular years; or, they could gamble and sign him for 8 more years.

No matter how you slice it, a 36 y.o. catcher is not a good risk.

126 i'm not saying that the yankees don't have a plan. but if they were to sign rodriguez to a ten year deal worth $350M, they'd instantly put that much cash aside, and into an account as described? is that what every other successful business does?

128 Funny enough, his age 38 downturn correlates with Hawk's "play Fisk in LF" experiment. He played a few games at 1B and DH after that, but spent the majority of his time at C. Wow.

126 Actually, I think the Yanks might be under the luxury tax threshold as soon as 2009. That year, the threshold is $162M.

130 I think the Yanks might be under the luxury tax threshold as soon as 2009. That year, the threshold is $162M.

that is amazing. what will the small market teams do without the cash flow?

take that, pirates.

130 Interesting point about the luxury tax. Every one assumes that Yankees have unlimited money, but of course no business has enless cash. I suspected a couple of years ago (look up the posts!) that the team was more or less maxed out. They really have levelled off spending and may be looking to slice a little off next year's salary.

It will be interesting indeed if they try to get down to the threshold figure. Is it still the case the tax penalty increases for each year a team exceeds the threshold? If so, then it would make sense to drop down periodically and then begin to exceed the max the following year.

In my opinion, if it comes down to it, the team should pay more per inning for Rivera than the team did for Clemens this year. Rivera has historically been "underpaid" with respect to the rest of his teammates (hard to say he's underpaid, but I think you know what I mean). He's been the greatest at his position for longer than anyone else on the team.

I rarely agree with William but on the $$ thing for Mo and Po, I absolutely agree. Pick a number you're willing to pay each for the remainder of their careers. Then spread that number over 3 or 4 (or even 5) years if you have to. Backload the contracts if you can.

Spreading the contracts over a longer time period allows you to lower your cost each year (which helps with luxury tax). It also helps you stay competitive in the bidding. If the Mets offer 3 years $60, you reply that we'll give you the 60 over 4 years - guarantees you and your family a steady stream of money over a longer period of time. Some people prefer that - money you don't have can't be spent.

Allowing Mo to retire as a Yankee on his terms (he'll probably be a shell of himself in the final year(s) of the contract) will avoid any Toree-like or Bernie-like mess. Mo seems more likely than Bernie (although that opinion is completely without foundation) to recognize when he's done.

For Po, he might not be a #1 catcher in the final year(s) of his contract but he should be at least as good a BUC as anyone we've had over the past 5 years. His bat should still make up for his declining catching skills, and you could probably live with that decline once a week.

Let Mo, Po, Jeter (and hopefully Pettitte) retire as Yanks in the new stadium, recognizing that you are overpaying for past performance. The first players who actually played in the new stadium to have their numbers retired, plaques, etc.

Theo Epstein said Boston's priority is signing Mike Lowell. What about A-Rod at shortstop? "We have a shortstop," he said.

Sounds a lot like "Bubba Crosby is our center fielder."

132 My understanding is that the Yanks, as multiple offenders, pay the max tax (40%). Even if they dropped below for say 2009, if they broke the threshold again in 2010 (its $170M that year, and $178M in 2011), they'd still be taxed at 40%, because it wouldn't be the first time. =)

131 Actually, that's not right. The luxury tax money is separate from the revenue sharing money. No luxury tax money goes to "small market" teams. More details here: http://tinyurl.com/yv5otv

I think the Yanks get to deduct construction expenses from revenue sharing money paid, so we've got that.

133 PeteAbe also through out the line of "underpaid with respect to his teammates." I don't think that that's a fair comparison, as many of his teammates play lower-supply, higher-demand positions. Rivera's current annual salary of $10.5 million is the same as Billy Wagner's and is far more than any other reliever in the league. His skills are declining, not improving, so any increase in pay would be motivated by combination of respect and desperation.

135 thanks for the schooling on the luxury tax. that "industry growth fund" is interesting. a preliminary googling hasn't given me much in the way of specific uses for all of that cash. thanks.

133 lower supply/higher demand than a dominant closer? I disagree. There are many average closers out there, but few on the level of the elite like Mo, and every team would love to have a Mo on their staff.

The Yankees have overpaid for "stars" who are not the best at their position. Giambi, arguably Posada, Bernie, Damon, Matsui, etc. Why not overpay for another star who has actually maintained a consistent level of excellence throughout his career?

134 Absolutely. Have you SEEN their shortstop?

137 You're welcome. It would be interesting to know where all those Yankee dollars have gone to.

140 indeed. here is the best explanation i found, again in a cursory search as i get ready to head out of work:

The IGF has many different goals - promotion and marketing of MLB, international development, investments in new media technology, community service, and "enhancement in popularity and revenue growth" among teams that receive money from revenue sharing. The money allocated to these teams must be based on "investment criteria."

vague, isn't it?

"enhancement in popularity"?

that's good stuff.

132 It's no secret that the Yankees have been losing money for several years, and the luxury tax is certainly one of the culprits. Last year, the Yankees were clearing making an effort to cut payroll, as evidenced by the Sheffield and Johnson trades and their reluctance to sign a bonafide first baseman. Of course, they ended up blowing all of their savings on Clemens. This year, they shed $34 million each by dismissing Clemens and A-Rod. They'll put back almost half of that if they give Rivera and Posada their expected increases and pay Cano and Wang their arbitration-dictated worth. Picking up another big-ticket player, such as Cabrera, Beltre or Santana, would push the payroll back into the mid 190s at least.

110 I've been counting on an Abreu/Duncan platoon. It looks like Abreu's 2006 NYY success vs. LHP may have been a fluke?

121 Not all money in a baseball team's payroll goes to wins... Some of it is a matter of sentiment. Since it's MY sentiment, I approve of such lavish spending. (And I'll pretend like it's not my dollars.)

135 Not quite. If the Yankees fall below the threshold one year and go back above it the next, their rate drops to 30%. If they were under the limit for two consecutive years and then went back over, the rate would be 22.5%

And just to get the details: a team at 30% has to be under for two years before it gets the 22.5% rate.

In any case, those rules only apply through 2011.

132. Yep the poor Yanks are losing money while the value of the Yes network soars into the billions
Sheff was traded because the acquiring of Abreu ( getting paid more than Sheff ) made him replaceable ( and Cash was looking for young arms to stock the minors ) IT wasn't a cost cutting move
The RJ move was brilliant. He was just coming off surgery and was dead money ( how many innings did he throw last year before they operated on the same disc again? )
You make it sound as if the Clemens signing was an impulse purchase we really couldn't afford.

The money is there, and with the opening of the new stadium, we'll be in even better financial shape

Conor Jackson? We want someone with a career 102 OPS+ who's made exactly one major league play at third base?

I believe that revenue sharing depends on the luxury tax -- that luxtax money is earmarked for something else doesn't matter. Whatever an "industry growth fund" is, it will certainly have to be funded in some way. If the Yankees (and Red Sox) stop funding it, or cut their contribution to it dramatically, MLB will have to fund it in some other way. In the long run, there will be less money available from MLB for other ventures, including revenue sharing.

"The money is there, and with the opening of the new stadium, we'll be in even better financial shape "

Well, the Yankees will be in better financial shape, my wallet won't be.

146

What people want and what the Yankees can get are two very distinct things. I trust that Cashman and Girardi are going through every possible solution to the 3B problem with a fine toothed comb.

That said, I don't think that Conor Jackson is a viable candidate unless Cash gets him for the cliched bag of BP balls.

...and so another name has surfaced in the HGH/Steroid investigation; Jose Guillen bought nearly $20,000 worth of steroids and human growth hormone for use btwn 03-05

Just noticed that Gold Glove awards have been posted. Jeter's given his controversial spot up to Orlando Cabrerra. Three center fielders (Ichiro, Hunter, Sizemore) take the OF spots. I'd say that Hunter's award comes through the unwritten "grandfather clause." He has certainly lost a step to Granderson.

Four outfielders got the award in the NL, two of them being free agent CF's Jones and Rowand.

..........article on Guillen.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=2007-11-06_D8SOF2IG0&show_article=1&lst=1

151 .and David Wright in the NL...thats a bit of a stretch.

128 You know, fans today would look at Fisk's progression and say "Steroids!"

154 Who knows? Perhaps they would be right.

154 I'm not so sure of that, that great 40 year old 155 OPS+ came from only 76 games. And the next two weren't in that many more games. The fact that he was league average at 43, while impressive, isn't quite the same as slugging .800+ over 147 games at age 39.

--Plus, of course, since his hallmark is that pinpoint control, he could easily be successful throwing at 90, mixing in the change and hitting spots.--

He might be successful, but he wouldn't be dominant. You're deluded if you think rivera throwing 90 would be anywhere near the pitcher he has been.

150 Matt Williams and Ismael Valdez also.

yes, we'll have to overpay for mariano and posada. but what can you do? they've been so great for us, and they are still great. if they aren't in a couple years, they aren't. we don't have anyone else to close unless we use joba, and we definitely don't have anyone else to catch. so we overpay.

mariano didn't seem to throw the changeup we saw him strike ryan howard out with in spring training, but he did mix in some sliders early in the year, which isn't a "changeup" but is a change of speed from the cutter that does the same thing. i think it was just to conserve energy, because he basically threw 93-94 every pitch 2nd half. i think that he will eventually start to mix in the pure change, but really there's no reason to yet. he's seen enough closers get beat on their 3rd best pitch (wohlers etc) to justify hesitation. but he has such good control, and the changeup he showed in spring training was so good, that i think he will soon be using it with great results. we'll see, hopefully.

157 i hope you don't think that we could find anyone else who could be anywhere near the pitcher rivera has been in the next 3 years.

157 It's perfectly possible that Rivera, in three years, will be nothing more than a pretty good righty out of the pen, a latter-day Rich Gossage making star-closer money. I don't have a problem with that.

161 Exactly. That's the point, I think. If we thought we might possibly be paying $14M for a worthless body in 2010, that would be reason to balk (so to speak) at the contract. But if the only realistic concern is that we'd be overpaying a decent reliever, that seems to me to be pretty clearly worth it to get his last terrific years in pinstripes.

149 I'd rather have Betemit for free.

Rather then salary, I am much more concerned about no-trade clauses. A 3 or 4 yr contract isn't as bad if we have the option to trade.

I don't think this has been covered yet, although it's a few days old... did you guys realize that the Mud Hens made an offer to A-rod?

"The club created a Hall of Fame plaque of Rodriguez wearing a Mud Hens hat... the offer stipulates that Rodriguez will have to compete for a spot with Toledo third basemen Mike Hessman, the league's most valuable player last season."

Classic. http://tinyurl.com/22e6c5

Sigh. RI Yank, I'll let you take it.

Yeah, we mentioned it.

Yankz is letting me break it to you, 3rd gen, because he had the regrettable task of informing me, when I linked to the story, that it had been linked already in a previous thread. Next time someone mentions it, you'll have to break it to them.

I've got a couple of questions for the crustier Yankees fans around here.

Given (Correct me if I'm wrong):

1. The FA class of '08 much better than that of '07.
2. The Cash Man has 1 year left on his contract.
3. Hank/Hal are relatively new to ownership.

Doesn't it make more sense to just relax and resign our FAs, while keeping payroll as low as possible so we have more money to pick up great players in '09? Since everybody's hungry for starting pitching, in order to get great players like Santana and Cabrera, we'd have to throw some starters at their clubs.

If anything, the Yankees of '07 have shown us that even with A-Rod's titanic season, pitching is king. Is an extra year of Santana really worth giving up many potential years of greatness from "Philianjo?"

I know the pressure is to make it to the Serious every year. However, looking at the '08 team I feel pretty confident that we've got a good team, even if it isn't completely dominant. It won't be 110 win season, but I bet we can get there. If we get to roast A-Rod's new team on the way, so much the better.

The Sox are a little scary, though.

-A

Sorry, sorry. Implied in 1-2-3 is that while Cashman is still on a hook, bad trades now are more likely to anger Hank/Hal and prevent them from renewing him than maintaining the status quo that they helped manufacture.

168 The FA pitchers available a year from now are much, much better than the ones available now, I know that. I'm assuming that's what you meant in asking about the FA classes.

I have no idea what makes Hank/Hal tick, though.

And I'm not particularly crusty.

I agree that it would be wise to keep Posada's deal to 3 years even if it's 4 years' worth of dough. I think another way to do this might be a 3 year deal for say $50+ million with a mutual option and a well-paid buy out - say $10 million. That way Posada gets his money and if he's still performing the Yanks can re-sign him for a 4th season.

As for trade possibilities, I turned over a few possibilities the other day. I'm already on board as saying that there should be an Abreu-Kemp swap. Then I'd look to see what it takes for one of Beltre or Atkins. The idea being to hold on to the young Pinstriped 3. If nothing could be worked out, I'd try a package of Damon and Farns (to close) and a grade B/C prospect too, if needed, to CIN for Hamilton and Ed. Encarnacion who may both be available. That is, of course, if the Yankee F.O. feels they could set up a support system to help Hamilton deal with the added pressures of NY.

That gives us a young speedy OF of Melky, Kemp and Hamilton with Matsui rotating in if Hamilton still needs to sit against lefties. If C. Jackson is available I would look to add him if the cost wasn't prohibitive. He could share 1B with Giambi and Shelley.

So our lineup might look like this:

LF Melky
SS Jeter
1B Giambi
RF Kemp
DH Matsui
C Posada
2B Cano
3B E. Encarnacion
CF Hamilton

Alternatively, Hamilton could lead off and swap places with Melky. When Hamilton sits Melky moves to CF, Matsui to left and Jackson comes off the bench to play 1B with Giambi switching to DH. Shelley and Betemit headline a solid bench. We get younger and faster while certainly losing some OBP. All these guys: Kemp, Encarnacion, Hamilton and Jackson are available. All have upside. All could be had while holding on to our best prospects. On top of that why not see what it takes to get Carlos Quentin from the D-Backs. His stock is down, so we might be able to get him for Clippard+.

I would love to see Cash make some moves like this.

170 I think he was talking about me. (crust and all)

Matt Kemp 2007: 22 years old, 125 OPS+, making the minimum
Bobby Abreu 2007: 33 years old, 114 OPS+, making 16 million dollars. He's also on the last year of his contract.

Well, it is Colletti.

Josh Hamilton 2007: 26 years old, 131 OPS+, making the minimum
Edwin Encarnacion 2007: 24 years old, 101 OPS+, making the minimum

Johnny Damon 2007: 33 years old, 97 OPS+, making 13 million dollars.
Kyle Farnsworth 2007: 31 years old, 93 OPS+, making 6 million dollars.

Yeah, I'd love to see Cashman make these trades too.

170 But you responded first, so if you look at it in a purely aesthetic manner, you're the upper crust. Me, I like pizza crust and bread crust; they're just ducky.

175 C'mon Chyll, you can't forget the best crust of all - PIE crust!

173 I think even Ned Colletti isn't that dumb . . .

174 . . . but Krivsky might be. Dumb isn't the right word; ignorant of what he has might be the right phrase. The Reds certainly benched Encarnacion enough last year, and there are rumors of trading Hamilton to make room for . . . well if Krivsky is smart, he'd trade Griffey to make room for Jay Bruce. If he's dumb, he'll trade Hamilton to make room for Norris Hopper/Ryan Freel.

In any case, no way the Yanks get both those guys for just Farns, Damon, and a prospect. Maybe one or the other, but not both.

173 176

Yeah, I brought these guys up because of just what IS being circulated about them. Word is the Dodgers do want to move Ethier or Kemp and replace whichever one with a veteran OF. And you know Joe would have no problem with that.

The Reds have continuously yanked Encarnacion around. Dusty is also a fan of vets, I believe. He might prefer a Lowell or Crede or Beltre. Hamilton is on the block. Also, the Reds have made lots of moves to bolster their pen over the last 2 seasons. Many of those moves have not worked out. I think they might look at Farns as an answer to their closing problems.

Jackson is also on the block as the D-Backs are looking to re-sign our friend Tony Clark for his veteran presence. Clark is putting out there through his agent that he could land an every day job.

These guys are young and have upside. I really think the moves are doable. Even if Encarnacion tanks we have Betemit. If Jackson has difficulties there's still Shelley, Betemit and Giambi.

It would take a lot of back and forth, but I'd love to see Cash take the Yanks in this direction.

176 Pizza is in the pie genre... but the type of pie you're thinking of is better with a cold glass of milk or a la mode. mmm... it's not bad to have the Earth's crust underneath us, either...

177 Me too, but I don't think for a moment even Ned Colletti is foolish enough to trade budding 22-year-old superstar under the Dodgers' control for another 5 years Matt Kemp for one season of Bobby Abreu. Not even Cam Bonifay or Chuck LaMar would be that foolish.

I'd love it if the Yanks got Kemp, though. Ethier, I'm not so sure about. Colletti might do him straight up for 1 year of Abreu, but the Yanks might lose that one.

I'd also love Encarnacion and/or Hamilton (presuming he can handle NYC, or be properly supported, as you say). But again, I don't think Damon+Kyle+B prospect gets the job done.

178 Chyll, have you ever had the fantastic food known as tomato pie? I don't mean something like this (http://tinyurl.com/2onvw9) - I mean this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomato_pie). (Full disclosure - I'm pretty sure I know the guy who wrote the wikipedia entry; or at least the one who contributed the recipe.)

179
As for Abreu, give the Dodgers a window to work out an extension a la RJ. It happens all the time.

As for Hamilton, I guess I'm misreading his value. Considering the history, the injuries and the fact that despite his impressive rookie season he was being shopped I didn't think his price would be overwhelming. I still think we could get it done without one of our top 3 arms going to Cincy. We do have depth.

It would also allow the team to move Melky or AJ or Tabata after 2008.

180 Hmm, I believe I had a variation of that in elementary school, though we called it Pizza Squares >;)
Actually, a lot of the trendy pizza parlors in Manhattan and Brooklyn are serving that now. There's one place on the Upper West Side (Broadway and 78th) that serves various forms of pizza with fresh mozzarella that's surprisingly delightful, though the name escapes me at the moment.

Your Tomato Pie reminds me of pizza freets; flat fried dough with tomato sauce and grated parmesan. Deelish.

dang, I gotta go to bed. g'nite folks!

0 Oh, and btw, Alex: "In 2003, I was all for the Yankees moving on without Pettitte."

Were you smoking crack cocaine, or what?

184 As our resident moron troll would say, "I'd like some of that."

Hey Alex, I gotta make sure you get a shout-out for working in the semi-obscure 1930's leftist theater reference. Workers unite!

184 Totally a case of hindsight being 20-20, but weeping, the 1st round pick the Yanks got as a result of Pettitte leaving?

The Yanks used it to draft one Philip Hughes.

I hated to see Pettitte go at the time, but if I knew then about Hughes what I know now - I would have led the "so long, Andy!" parade.

186 I think Mr. Odets would beg to differ as to the relative obscurity of "Waiting for Lefty."

Of course, he could only beg so much being dead for 40 some odd years, but, well, um...

167 Sorry. I did a search before I posted, I swear!

From 4/20 (hehe):

""I think I can keep improving at third base, although you never know what the future will bring," says Cabrera, who has played both corner outfield positions and the hot corner since he made his debut in Florida in 2003. "But I wouldn't like to change positions."

Would he be intrigued by the idea of playing for the New York Yankees?

"I wouldn't like to be on the Yankees," said Cabrera. "They have too many rules. That's what I think. It's not in my hands. But I don't think it will happen." "

But fifteen million dollars would probably change his mind.

191 OTOH, our "don't be a douchebag" rule has gone unenforced recently, so there might be room for Cabrera.

But seriously, I was revisiting the archives of MLB.com to get amped up about '08. It was really bizarre, watching the Serious video for '96 and seeing Rivera, Pettitte, Jeter and Williams as young kids. I'm tempted to say that we've got that youth again, a similar world series drought, new manager named Joe.

Yeah, stuff your statistics. If we could beat the Braves in 96, we can beat the Sox in '08. I've got a good feeling.

187 Hughes, huh, Shaun? That's almost poetic enough for me to say it was worth it.

But moving forward, the trick now is to assure that Andy can serve as mentor to young Phil in 2008.

Please, Andy, don't bail on us now...

191 Right, yankz, just what we need, a young stud with a weight problem who chafes at discipline.

That's a disaster waiting to happen.

Neeeext!

192 Hear, hear!

Never mind the gnats, here come the Yankees!

Oh, and Cabrera's comment about "too many rules" was probably just about the organization, let alone Girardi.

But he must have played under Joe, right? Did they have a bad relationship?

Anyone know?

184 Weeping--now, I know you think Andy is a 'Golden God," and in hindsight the decisions look bad, but consider the team's perscpective in 2003. Pettitte just came off a fairly pedestrian season (ERA+ 109), he was injured the year before (134 INN), had persistent injury concerns, and was 31 y.o. (and later he did miss almost all of 2005). They also let 40 y.o. Clemens (ERA+ 112) and 40 y.o. David Wells (ERA+ 109) walk.

In return they signed/traded for 27 y.o. Javier Vazquez, whose four previous seasons were ERA+ 119, 130, 108, 139), and 39 y.o. Kevin Brown, whose numbers the previous decade had been staggeringly good (albeit with injury concerns).

At the time, I thought that they had massively upgraded their pitching AND got younger, and if I recall, various writers (Neyer, Goldman) argued they same way.

But alas, we all know how that turned out...

194 Yet Girardi says he has no attitude problem and loves to win.

I don't get it. The biggest weakness in this lineup is a lack of right-handed power. This is maybe the 3rd or 4th best RH bat in the game, up there with Pujols, Arod, and Manny. He's only 24, and his number #1 most comparable player is Hank Aaron. Hank fucking Aaron!!!! His weight issues dragged him all the way down to a 150 OPS+ last year. Move him to 1B if you have to, but his bat is truly elite. It's like needing a bicycle and settling for a Bugati Veyron. If you can land him without giving up Phil or Joba, you do it.

Are you telling me you wouldn't have wanted Manny on the Yankees the past decade???

198 It's a good thing the Yankees didn't let "weight issues" and "attitude" stop them from picking up this pretty talented kid back in the 1920s. His name was George Herman something...I think they also called him Babe.

198 The guy is a walking warning flag. Manny is just spacey, but works very hard. This kid, after 3 whole years in MLB, complained about shagging flies, and sat out practice. His weight problem is just a symptom of his fuckedupness.

That said, I'd go for him because we need his bat now. But only under the following conditions. I think you need to be able to 'get out from under' his contract, if big money and NY celebrity drive him over the edge.

1) He can NOT have a no-trade clause. Actually, the Yanks (like the Sox?) should only give out no-trades, in the rarest of situations. No-trades have hurt thm more they giving out big money.
2) A (relatively) short term contract. He will be wowed by big money, and might like the idea of being back on the market in 4 years.

I just don't think this is the kind of kid you build a team around. If he proves differently, you can extend him. This kid plays on pure talent. No work ethic. No care for his body. He's the type, who after he gets big monney and a long contract, might just 'sit-out' his career.

When Babe came up, and for years, he was not really heavy. Gwynn and Manny were thin as kids. In only 4 years, Miggy's D is so bad, they are already calling him a DH.

He's been in MLB for 5 years. Based on what I've read, he's gone from 190 lbs to 260 lbs in his FISRT 5 years, playing in Florida.

Like I said, I'm willing to be a bit of a whore for 2 years to stay in the hunt. But I don't want to be saddled with this kid, with a no-trade, for 8 years.

Think of it. A stud in the making, packing on 70 lbs in his first 5 years. It's not just the weight. This kid has serious problems. You thought ARods attitude was bad? HA!

198 Excllent point about 1B. Instead of all the discussion of moving various lighter bats to 1B (Jeter, Matsui, Damon), there should be more of a focus on getting maximum offensive otput from 1B or DH. A twenty-four year old stud who is one of the best slugging 3B in the game--at worst you figure he makes the Pujols transition to 1B (or even DH in the AL). If the can get him for the right price, it's really a no brainer. Weight be damned.

200 Bonds was a skinny kid too...

Now before you get worked up, I'm just playing with you.

200 I'm willing to trust Girardi's firsthand account over whatever newspaper you fail to cite.

Also, Baseball Reference has Cabrera at 185 lbs. ESPN has him at 210.

SG over at RLYW puts it well: "I've seen some sentiment posted here that Cabrera's not a good target, which is pretty silly. At age 24 he's on a Hall of Fame trajectory. There are questions about his work ethic and motivation, but I tend to think it's a product of being on a team that's going nowhere and playing in front of "crowds" of 800-1000 people a night."

""I think Lowell makes the most sense," one Yankee official said. "It is funny, we decided to trade Lowell when Scott Brosius was the MVP of the (1998) World Series. Now Lowell is the MVP of the World Series and we might get him back.""

Yuck.

206 I'm not sure that's "funny" in the "ha-ha" sense.

200 and if he ends up a dh, would that be such a problem?

"His weight problem is just a symptom of his fuckedupness."
"This kid plays on pure talent. No work ethic. No care for his body. He's the type, who after he gets big monney and a long contract, might just 'sit-out' his career."
"It's not just the weight. This kid has serious problems."

so it isn't just that he's fat, it's that he's seriously fucked up. no work ethic. yet it seems like you are implying that the only evidence you have is that he's fat. maybe you're right, but you have to give more evidence than his weight and maybe some quotations taken out of context.

200 Do you have any evidence to support your allegations that he has no work ethic and is F-ed up? Also, weren't you arguing the other day that the people leveling similar allegations against Arod were being unfair because they didn't really know him?

Here's what I know about Miggy...he is 24; has had a 150 OPS+ in each of the last three seasons; and is still years away from his prime. If he can do that with no work ethic, just imagine if matures with age?

I think Cabrera is a no-brainer for the Yankees, and hope Cashman is posturing when he says IPK is off the table. The Yankees have three potential starting prospects, and IPK is probably the worst among them. Considering that the Yankees have so many other arms on the farm, but only a few position players, there is no way you can pass up on a lethal bat like Cabrera.

Think of it this way...the Yankees aren't likely to develop a position player as good as Cabrera over the next 20 years. So, why give up the chance to acquire someone who at 24 would still have as bright a future as any top prospect in the game?

Newsday:
Brian Cashman met with the Marlins at about 6 p.m. last night at the GM meetings. No offers were made, but a source with knowledge of the situation said the Marlins made it clear that the Yankees would have to include either Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy in any trade for Cabrera, something the Yankees are not willing to do.

The Yankees would likely offer a deal involving their next tier of prospects, which includes Alan Horne, Humberto Sanchez, Ross Ohlendorf and Jose Tabata.

200 If you are interested, there are articles on the Net you can find. He weight issues are well know.

I'm just interpreting what I'm reading. That much weight gain (70 lbs) in 4-5 years is a bad sign, for anyone. What would you think if one of your kids, or your wife, gained 70 lbs over 5 years. Everything just fine?

But this kid is a potential superstar, once in a lifetime. I can't help but wonder if he thinks of his future or legacy. If he had ARods work ethic, he might be better then ARod. No doubt he gifted.

My main concern is getting locked into a long contract with a no-trade clause. Like with Giambi, and even Mats, JD and other players, not being able to trade guys makes up very inflexible.

The kid can change. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and hope for the best, because he could vastly improve the team. He has also player a fair amount of OF, so that gives us some flexibility too.

How about some feedback on 4+ year contracts with no-trade clauses. I think these are hurting us.

Actually, I'd rather give up IPK and keep Jose Tabata and Humberto Sanchez or Alan Horne.

197 I understand, mp. It's just some things in life are sacred, like franchise players.

I loved Tino, but understood letting him walk.

Not that I liked Giambi at the time, either.

But to me, by then, Andy had already earned himself the right to retire in pinstripes.