great post, cliff. i'd still like to know what girardi was thinking on the rain delay game...

well, i sure hope jorgie and mo are signed, sealed and delivered soon.

it's possible Andy doesn't decide by wednesday. if he needs more time to mull it over, hank said he can take it, as long as his "yankees or retire" stance is in tact.

David Pinto has computed this year's Probabilistic Model of Range. Guess which team had the best defense in baseball last year?

tinyurl.com/2x7f98

Well, Melky in CF and JD in LF gives us good range. ARod at 3rd maybe was above average. Can and 2nd. FWIW, were 8th in FPCT and 6th lowest in errors (out of 30).

Why is Andy taking so long to decide? I think this bodes badly for us.

I'm not thrilled by all this talk about bunting. Hopefully Girardi was just bitten by the NL bug to overmanage, and he'll play it straighter in the AL.

Buntin' Joe + Derek liking to bunt = lots more bunts.

1 I fear this. Roger Clemens is the man's mentor.

4 I'm sure he'll figure it out. He went to Northwestern! That's a fine university!

I think we should replace Tony Pena with Stephen Hawking because he is a Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge and he has Lou Gehrig's disease. Lou Gehrig was an incredible Yankee. The Yankees need that kind of Iron Horse spirit back in the clubhouse.

7 what number would hawking wear? the golden ratio?

6 I hear you, but I don't think he consulted him before coming back last season- do you think Clemens would go for a deal like Andy did? I'm a Clemens fan, but he'd try to get the most money possible I think.

8 square root of -1?

10 oooooohhh...

so... scott kazmir might be available via trade. the kid has 3 years left on his contract.

http://tinyurl.com/2aln6b

i wouldn't mind seeing him in pinstripes (depending on the asking price, of course).

Hawking's uniform number:

Golden Ratio: it's irrational. Not a good image.
Square root of -1: There is no 'i' in 'team'.

I prefer Planck's constant. It's a minor problem that Planck's constant is not a pure number (it has units). But he could just wear an 'h' on his back.

Didn't Joe have a reputation as a manager who'd overuse his young pitchers? Or am I remembering things wrong?

Ugh, bunting.

14 maybe that's reason alone for me to back off my desire to get rid of giambi

I dunno, we do have some bunting fans here at BB.
tinyurl.com/2cmnqk

Or how about some varied bunting, just to keep the other team on their toes:
tinyurl.com/yrtgs4

16 What about Reverend Bunting, who had all his clothes stolen by The Invisible Man?

11 The D-Rays never complete a trade because they overvalue every guy on their roster. The day is coming when they have 9 major league quality outfielders, Carlos Pena, and 2 starting pitchers...

18 I believe that was a more pronounced issue under Chuck LaMar than it has been under Andrew Friedman, but even so the price is going to be prohibitive: Is it really worth it to us to trade Phil Hughes and one or two other top prospects for Kazmir? I can't see how.

The '06 Marlins led the NL in strikeouts so maybe the bunting isn't so much about the bunting as the inability of the team to put the ball in play to make good things happen. The top 8 teams in sacrifice hits in the NL in '06 were Colorado 119, Houston 100, Cubs 84, San Fran. 80, Atlanta 78, Mets 77, Nationals 76, and Marlins 76 so it's not like Girardi bunted THAT much.

11 I think Kazmir may be the only player other than Albert Pujols I'd be willing to trade Phil Hughes for.

12 That is a completely awesome post. We are not worthy.

7 Not only that, but Lou Gehrig went to Columbia, which is a fine university!

Just because I got to looking:

Scott Kazmir,20yo, 6'0" 170lbs (minor league career):
283IP 3.83BB/9 11.17K/9 1.12whip

Pitcher X, 22yo, 6'0" 190lbs (minor league career):
149.5IP 3.13BB/9 9.9K/9 0.97whip

23
IPK?

24

Yeah, two different pitching styles, really, and Kaz is a lefty (which is huge), but I think IPK will develop into a fine starter.

8

6.02 * 10^23 ... cause we need a good mole for information on the team.

Yay! Let the bunting begin!

Who's our cleanup hitter now? Maybe we can wrangle Lofton back from Cleveland and let him bunt from the four-hole! Just imagine it.

It's a new day.

But seriously, folks, I am looking forward to this. I get frustrated by weird bunting as well, but I think it's important to bear in mind that the game situation should determine its use. If it makes sense to use it in the first inning with your cleanup hitter (e.g., you're anticipating a pitcher's duel, or your guy on the hill does much better with a lead than in a scoreless game, or your cleanup hitter's just not swinging the bat well anyway, etc.) then do it!

To me, weird moves like that show you're actually watching the game, feeling the situation, etc. IMO, better to err on the side of eccentricity than formula.

Better still not to err, but to do it juuusst right.

Should be fun.

7 ha ha hah aha hah!

16 Har har.

Get it? Bunting?

Eh?

Nudge, nudge, wink, wink.

"Bunting?"

:)

Arggh, the dreaded bunting. I hate freaking bunting! Jeter does it too much already as things stand.

Girardi sucks with pitch counts and young pitchers' arms. This is the main reason that the Marlins showed him the front door, that and cussing out his owner.

As for Girardi being a hardass with young pitchers, this is the Yankees, not the Marlins. These young pitchers came up through the Yankees' system so they know the deal and don't need Girardi or anyone else riding their butts.

I hope that Girardi has learned some hard lessons about pitch counts and not cussing out his owner or the media or this is going to be another ugly stop on his way to the manager scrap heap.

26 Nice. That would also help the team "chemistry"... ;-)

With all our retired numbers that Avogadro's number idea might actually come into use someday...

23 The similarities are striking, but the two most obvious differences suggest the comparison is off: Age (Kaz was 20 when those stats were compiled; IPK was 22) and innings pitched (Kaz put up those numbers over 283 IP; IPK did it over 149 IP). Still, I agree with your overall assessment of IPK's prospects -- even though I wouldn't mind dealing him as part of a package for Johan or MCab or straight up for Edwin Encarnacion or Garrett Atkins (or someone of similar value).

27 "If it makes sense to use it in the first inning with your cleanup hitter (e.g., you're anticipating a pitcher's duel, or your guy on the hill does much better with a lead than in a scoreless game, or your cleanup hitter's just not swinging the bat well anyway, etc.) then do it!"

Well, it never makes sense to have your clean-up hitter bunt in the first inning. If Girardi were to order such a thing, then my head might explode. Which could be entertaining, I'll grant.

Actually, and this might be border-line blasphmey, if the Yankees can get Kazmir for less than what the Twins want for Johan (prospect-wise) then I would prefer Kaz first.

On the 3B front, I'm not sure I'd give up Damon's bat for Joe Crede's average one. But I could be persuaded since it would shed a bad contract for an guy with decent D and some pop, but not much else. In fact, he looks a little like a Brosius clone. He'd be nice to slot into end of the lineup while Cano moves up to 5th or 6th.

34 I think the problem you're going to face is that the Rays are going to want the EXACT SAME package for Kaz that the Twins will get for Johan. In fact, Joel Sherman (who broke that "news") seemed to indicate as much:

"An executive familiar with Tampa's thinking said if the offers for Santana grow to a substantial level, then the Rays would test to see what they could get for Scott Kazmir. The thinking is that because Kazmir is three years from free agency as opposed to one year for Santana, he might bring nearly as much in return."

Erik Bedard will presumably be available for a similar package, but I can't imagine any of the three would be in the Yanks' price range (I wouldn't part with Joba and/or Hughes period).

I too am coming to terms with the thought of Crede at 3rd (assuming he's completely recovered from surgery) IF it means dumping the last two years of Damon's contract in the process. Great glove, better-than-average pop...his OBP is still atrocious, but the market at 3rd this year is terrible, so no matter which way we go, there are consequences. At least Crede provides minimal risk for the investment.

30 Girardi was actually very good about pitch counts with his starters. The issue, as Shaun P pointed out a while back, is that he didn't pay attention to cumulative innings totals between the major and minor leagues. That's actually good news because the Yankees as an organization can help control total innings by telling Girardi when he can or can't start someone, or by making roster moves, while the manager has nearly exclusive control over in-game pitch counts, which wasn't much of an issue anyway. The only things Girardi did wrong in terms of in-game abuse was the Josh Johnson rain-dealy thing, which he's taken enough heat over that he's unlikely to do it again, and by pushing Dontrelle Willis past 120 pitches a bit too much, but on the 2006 Marlins Willis was the veteran horse, even if he was only 24. That doesn't make it okay, but if Girardi needs to lean on one guy to go deep into games to save his bullpen every fifth day he has Chien-Ming Wang (who will be 28 this upcoming season) and hopefully Andy Pettitte.

21 I don't know. Kazmir's size and inability to avoid high pitch counts worries me. When you consider the service time, I am not sure a deal of Hughes for Kazmir is a slam dunk. Then again, he is left handed and has proven he can beat the Red Sox. I don't know...it's interesting, but not a no brainer, IMHO.

33 Is it even possible for your cleanup hitter to face a bunting situation in the first inning of a scoreless game?

I do agree with Weeping, that in an anticipated pitchers duel (especially in the postseason) that I wouldn't mind seeing Abreu drop one down with men on 1st & 2nd and no outs (especially against a tough lefty). Maybe he beats it out. People talk about "giving up an out" on the bunt. That 3b-man still has to make a play against a fast runner. It's not always a "gift" out, IMO.

I realize that the small-ball debate is probably a dead horse and certainly not a very popular style around here (it seems like Weeping and I are kinda the Lone Rangers on the pro-bunting side) so I'll let it go. Like Weeping said in post 27 (nice number), I'm looking forward to watching what Girardi brings to the table... it should be fun to watch. Could we actually get to see more than one squeeze play per decade?

38 For the record, I'm an anti-bunting type, but I believe the decision to have Abreu bunt with men on 1&2 with nobody out in a scoreless game in the early innings with two VG starters is a very close call.
And in general, unless a manager is really bunt-crazy, I bet the total difference in Win Expectancy for all the unusual decisions he makes in an entire season would amount to less than a single win. So none of this bothers me too much.

36 I don't buy those excuses for Girardi's bad judgment with the Marlins' young pitchers. I also don't buy that Girardi is not going to notice that Kennedy, Joba and Hughes are pitching on the mound and only see Wang and Andy. There are real issues with Girardi's management of pitch counts of young pitchers which cannot be excused away. I just hope that he has learnt his lesson and doesn't repeat his past mistakes or things will get real ugly, real fast.

33 :)

If Randy Johnson in his prime were facing the Yanks in the Serious and we had Clemens on the mound, and our cleanup hitter had some holes in his swing and was kind of banged up, and someone's standing on second base with zero outs, and...wait, maybe you're right, maybe it doesn't mathematically work in the first inning.

Ok, but in the fourth, let's say.

Still and all, I'd love to watch your head explode, mp. Worth the price of admission.

:)

38 Evidently, as I walk myself through such a scenario 41 , it is not.

:)

41 If he's banged up and has holes in his swing, maybe he shouldn't be batting cleanup?

If it happened in the fourth, my head probably would explode, but I might let out a loud groan or wave my arms about wildly. Still pretty funny.

40 "There are real issues with Girardi's management of pitch counts of young pitchers which cannot be excused away."

No, I'm telling you there are not. You can look it up. Other that Willis, no other Marlins starter threw as many as 120 pitches in a single start in 2006.

If you are talking about the 'bunt', don't you need to examine said batters ability to bunt? Mantle was an excellent bunter, expecially the drag bunt. He usually had the 1st and 2nd basemen deep, so a drag bunt past the pitcher had a good chance to be a hit, even with less then decent baserunner speed.

This would also be a good 'sac bunt' for someone like Abreu, no? It should almost always work as a sac and maybe be a hit.

Problem is our guys can't bunt. SOMETIMES then can get a sac bunt down, but as they have little control over placement, it's rarely gonna be a hit.

If our lefties could learn to drag bunt, the increase possibility of both a sac bunt and a possible hit might make that a reasonable play, no? Do I make any sense?

Of course, as I researched a while ago, Girardi was actually less likely to use his closer in a tie game on the road than was Joe Torre. Most people explained that away by saying that Joe Borowski is not Mariano Rivera- but if we're praising Girardi's bullpen tactics, it's a key piece of info:

http://tinyurl.com/2oj82z

(I'm not really trying to pimp my blog, since I never update it anymore... it's just in case anyone wanted to see the evidence)

44 c'mon cliff, surely you know the plural of baseless anecdotes is data, right?

46 I wouldn't use Borowski.

Girardi has one year of managerial data to look at, but I think that also speaks to his ability to be flexible about bullpen roles vis-a-vis situations.

44 Some people are convinced that Girardi is the devil and will not let it go.

35 Ah, yeah, that stinks. But I would almost prefer Kazmir at this point. He's either going to be phenomenal next year or he could suffer arm trouble (he had over 200ip this year for the first time, it'll be interesting to see how he responds).

From BP's weekly quotes article. Boldness is mine...

"The track record speaks for itself. I hope he gets us back to the playoffs. This speaks volumes about what the team is willing to do to win. I talked to Scott Proctor today. He said to be ready to pitch a lot. He likes to use the bullpen. That's fine with me."
--Derek Lowe, Dodgers pitcher (Ken Gurnick, MLB.com)

49 Yeah, the guys over at Dodger Thoughts need to get used to the following phrase:
"A starter, then Proctor and pray for a good doctor"

49 priceless.

50 Any truth to the rumors that Proctor's arm has gone into the witness protection program, or that it's fled to Canada and applied for asylum?

--His entire staff is college guys save Tony Peña, which shows a preference for smart coaches.--

As a college graduate I can safely say that your 'college = smart' theory is sketchy and simplistic at best. A college graduate may simply be book smart, may be a product of better opportunities, or he might indeed be "smart". He also may be an idiot. And some of the most intelligent people I've ever met never stepped into a college class room.

52 Scott Proctor addressed reporters after the Torre press conference:

Proctor: "I only regret that I have but one arm to give to Joe Torre"

Torre: "But Scottie, you've got two arms"

Proctor: "Oh crap!"

Just saw this in Rich Lederer's review of this year's Bill James Handbook on baseballanalysts.com:

"The author proceeds to ask if Derek Jeter (-90) is the worst defender? 'Well, Jeter's poor numbers do not have a caveat like Manny's do. There are no significant park effects clouding his stats. The numbers suggest that Jeter has hurt his team defensively as much or more than any other player in baseball. Having said that, you can still make a good case for Jeter being the best shortstop in the game. Given all that he brings to the team – hitting, baserunning, leadership, overall baseball savvy (including as a defender) – nearly every baseball general manager would prefer Jeter over almost any other shortstop. But, defens