I've been saying all along that I thought it would get done (Sox/Matsuzaka), but I'm beginning to really think it's not going to happen. I posted about it both at COH and Matsuzaka Watch.

If the Mets, Yankees, Rangers, and maybe Cubs are all waiting in the background to pay Matsuzaka $100 million over 6 years, plus the posting fee, why would he take $12 million or $14 million over 6?

If he waits it out for another year, Boras can make up the difference in lost salary by supplementing his Seibu pay with HUGE endorsement deals. It will prove a minor blow to his reputation, but he'll recover just fine if he heads to the Majors a year later and wins the Cy Young. It'll be forgiven if he helps to lead Seibu to a title next year, which is very possible.

In the end, the Sox have zero leverage.

A posting fee of $51 million and 6 years at $72 million is $20.5 million a season.

The difference is, in scenario #1 Matsuzaka and Boras make $28 million more over the course of the contract. Wouldn't you hold out a year for that?

It's a nice piece of verbal jiujitsu if you ask me.

you'd undoubtedly argue they are making a huge mistake if they signed an unproven MLB caliber player to Boras' demands of $20 mil a year as well. my question is how do they NOT make a huge mistake in this situation?

If Matsuzaka wins another title for Seibu next year, and still gets them their money, no one will care. Trust me.

Boston's only mistake in this whole thing was outbidding the 2nd place Mets by 13 million. If they'd bid $40 million, and offered Matsuzaka 6 years, $90 million, it would be an average expenditure of $21 million. That's steep for an unproven guy, but the annual salary of $15 million is reasonable, and the extra $6 million per year in posting money could easily be written off creatively.

An extra $13 million makes it all but impossible to offer a Boras client, which they knew he was in advance of their posting bid, top dollar. It was a terrible blunder than cost them the player and maybe more. They look completely ridiculous. Epstein and Lucchino's press conference was pathetic. My favorite part was Theo saying all doe eyed:

"We do have plans to meet tomorrow and at that time will present a second offer, an improved offer."

When he said, "An improved offer" he looked totally panicked. He kind of swallowed hard, raised his voice to a higher pitch, and looked over at Lucchino. They know he's not coming for a penny less than $15 million a year, if at all.

The Red Sox are acting as if bidding the $51.1 means that they can pay Matsuzaka peanuts. They want to pay him as if he is projected as a back of the rotation guy. I don't understand how they can think that this is good business.

As for Matsuzaka, if he cared about his reputation being tarnished by wanting a large contract in Japan and just playing in the U.S., he would have never hired Boras as his agent and the Red Sox knew this when they entered the bidding the process.

In the end, I still see the deal getting done with Matsuzaka getting a salary close to what he deserves.

The thing is: He absolutely has to live up to expectations, and even as many have said the chances of that are pretty likely, when's the last time this much hype has been met in baseball and for a pitcher? Further if he does meet those ridiculously high expectations, they then have to pay for a huge extension in a few years.

Why do I keep thinking the rivalry will be on life support this time next year? Too many things have to break right for Theo to keep his job. The vulchers in Boston will be fighting over that flesh.

there's no killing the rivalry... at least not in these here parts. sox fans (generally speaking) are single-mindedly focused on how their team stacks up against the bombers. this is a fan base that pre-2003 would chant slogans touting the vaccous nature of the yankees as their own team was losing to the orioles. i've seen it 1st hand. it is the sound of insecurity.

that said, both teams have their share of question marks. this year will be really interesting.

how many days until pitchers and catchers report?

I agree with everything you say.

Brilliantly misplayed Theo.

"They sign JD Drew to an outrageous salary and then low ball their young potential ace Matsuzaka and their fan base all over the Internet don't see the contradiction. "

are you guys taking crazy pills? if there was talk about the yanks paying an MLB amateur (non FA) $20 mil you guys would be foaming at the mouth. besides, whats ridiculous is that sox bought sole negotiating rights and BORAS DID NOT MAKE A COUNTEROFFER or NEGOTIATE in any way! Boras should spend less time planning the demise of the posting system and more time sitting arcoss a table with teams trying to make the deal.... am I wrong?

I think the whole cultural imperative thing is overplayed.

Offering a guy the same amount of money as Adam Eaton is an insult. Screw the posting money. You didn't have to spend it. The Yankees would have gladly paid $35 million and ponied up for Boras. You guys just got in the way and turned cheap after you strapped on the big balls to win the pissing contest.

he seems to love the drama, and even more than that, getting his name in papers.

Nite.

The Sox have a decent lineup but they absolutely have to be carried by Papi and Manny. They've got injury prone guys at CF, C, 3B, RF, and an unproven rook at 2B. Their rotation consists of two 40 yo guys, a "rookie" coming back from injury who's never thrown more than 150 innings in a year, a headcase, and an international man of mystery (if they sign him). And they still don't have a bullpen.

The Yanks have a shaky rotation, but I'd argue that at least it's pretty much a known commodity. Their lineup is even moreso. You know what you're going to get from both - many more runs scored than allowed. And they have nice organizational depth to make a trade or cover up injuries if they need to.

I'm more worried about Toronto than Boston.

LOL

When the bid came out, the soxoholix were linking to a certain prosthetic that enhances size in that area. Theo must have had his strapped on and feeling mighty.

and you know this how exactly? im not trying to start a flame war, i just feel like its a very valid argument that Boras' demands may be a little much? and then he compares to the FA, which Matsuzaka is not. Bora is obviously not happy with the rules and he's trying to overcome them.

Which, honestly, was very stupid, especially given the size of the bid. Every team that lost instantly had an incentive to make sure the Sox paid every last penny.

And, from the Sox's perspective, it makes only too much sense. If the kickbacks worked, the Sox could 'give in' to Boras - even say 4 years/$52 mil + $25M in the posting fee = 4 years/$77M, or just under $19M/year.

The icing on the cake would have been trading Manny and his - wait for it - $20M/year salary.

Oops.

When was the last time a Boras client got a contract that seemed fair. The guy is just an amazing example of the profession. He does his job and does it well. Das it.

You better believe we would have been foaming at the mouth. But it would have been much earlier in the process. Why? Because the Yankees wouldn't have bungled things so badly afterwards. Damon got done in three days. A-Rod in less time than that. If the Yanks won the bid, it would have gotten done in a very low-key way. And everyone would have bemoaned their spending power and criticized them.

Instead, the vast majority of RSN was giddy at the bid. 90% of the local and national media praised them. And the organization has bungled everything since, includiong their FA spending spree and Manny. Go read Mnookin today. He's spot on after yesterday he said what you're saying about Boras. Your FO is to blame for thinking they could be smarter than everyone else. The shit's about to hit the fan and the feces will be flying everywhere over the next year.

Yes. You are wrong. Boras should do exactly what he's doing. Try to get the most money possible for his client. That's his job. That's why players hire him. They don't hire him to make friends or even, and I know this may come as a shock to you, set up the best deal for the Red Sox. It's the dollars. Plain and simple.

whats this bungling you speak of? the sox made an offer several days ago that was unanswered. i always thought it is a bad idea to bid against yourself.

"and I know this may come as a shock to you, set up the best deal for the Red Sox."

genius remark!

And just for shits and giggles, if DM does match expectations then we'll have a competitive season on our hands.

I love this game!

The real question becomes, will Boston let money stop this deal too?

No the Yanks would have got him signed, sealed, and delivered. We would have all complained about the cash, but it would have gotten done over three days.

"Alright Theo, since you overpaid on the posting fee, my client will take $8.50 an hour as long as he can live in the clubhouse."

"DONE!"

Your Red Sox believe him to be a front of the rotation guy! That's why they bid what they did. That being said, he should then make front of the rotation money. Gil Meche is making $11 million a year for the next 5. Gil Meche! Don't get pissed at Boras for not accepting the Sawx's joke of an offer, get mad at Theo and crew for making a bid so high that they're struggling to close the deal.

hhhmmm.... counter-offer?!

its becoming increasingly clear that you are 100% right. ans most likely this would apply to any team that won the bid; not just the red sox.

30 is exactly right.

They let A-Rod get away over a few bucks. They let Damon get away over a few bucks. Both Boras clients.

However, they overpaid for Nancy Drew. They overpaid for Varitek. Both Boras clients.

The choice seemed very clear very early on. Either overpay or don't bid. The Sox FO wanted it both ways - probably by spinning the bid amount into the contract. Too bad they're too "smart" for their own good.

However, they overpaid for Nancy Drew. They overpaid for Varitek. Both Boras clients."

so you're telling me they don't want to pay the agent's asking price on some players and overpay on some other players. im failing to see a point here....

A simple question here: Does anyone on this board believe in rc/27 outs?? By that measure Hafner, Howard, Pujols, Manny and Berkman were the best five offensive players in all of MLB last year---that does seem reasonable, right?

So when JD Drew shows up as the #24th best RC/27 and he can play center why is this a bad signing?? He does miss 'some' games each year, but his major injuries are the result of being beaned---do we hold that against him??

The guy has put up more runs on the board per out than Soriano every year, if I were a Yankee fan this is the one signing that I think I'll look back at and wish wouldn't have happened.

Lugo = 36 mil/4

Alex G = 14 mil/3

That same 20 mil (~5mil/year) difference could easily kill the DM negotiations. And the difference between Lugo and A-Gon is .60 in career OPS but the latter plays significantly better defense!

I love this game!

Life is good here at the Banter. Even though we got knocked out of the postseason early, there has been plenty to be happy about: the sawx finished 3rd behind the Jays of Blue, we've had a very productive hot stove season without moving George to the poorhouse, and we've got a new sawxer to tell us how dumb we are while we laugh at him. Good times.

"Alright Theo, since you overpaid on the posting fee, my client will take $8.50 an hour as long as he can live in the clubhouse."

you're right! uninsightful non-intelligent comments like this are a laughing matter.

45 I think Atlanta would be the third team in the deal.

I think the only error the Sox made is that they underestimated the significance of what they were doing. When I heard that they had bid $51.1MM, my thought was "Theo's all in -- this decision will make or break his career as a GM." Strangely enough, it seems like he didn't realize this at the time.

The thing with D-M is/was: Once you made the decision to bid an enormous amount of money to get the negotiating rights, you really had no choice but to follow through at any cost. You truly are "all in." (And this would have been true for any franchise that did it.) Because...

a) Failure to sign him will wreak massive fan and local media criticism upon your franchise

b) Failure to sign him may have a lasting negative effect on your image in Japan and your ability to do business there

And in the case of either the Yanks, Mets or Sox

c) Failure to sign him would leave you scrambling to sign a FA pitcher after much of the market was already gone (Zito for 6x$18MM anyone?)

If you ask me, the only franchise that really realized the full implications of the whole situation was probably the Mariners -- which is why they got out of it early, and very publicly.