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Not the Retiring Type?
2006-12-05 17:31
by Alex Belth
Note: The Bronx Banter blog has moved to bronxbanterblog.com.

According to Tom Verducci, the Andy Pettitte situation is heating up:

The free-agent left-hander, who is strongly considering retirement, is said to be intrigued with the idea of returning to pinstripes and "could possibly have a deal by the end of the week" with New York, according to a baseball source familiar with the negotiations.

The Yankees are willing to wait as long as necessary for Pettitte, whose original timetable was to defer a decision on 2007 until later this month. Pettitte is the club's No. 1 option because the former Yankee is New York-proven, is left-handed (possibly joining Johnson and Kei Igawa to give them three lefties in the rotation), does not require a lengthy term to his contract and is coming off an impressive second half of 2006.

In this market, the Yankees would do well to get Pettitte at two years and about $26 million.

I liked Pettitte when he was with the Yanks. How can any Yankee fan ever forget his performance in Game 5 of the 1996 World Serious? That said, I wasn't sorry when he left. Though I'm generally not crazy about second-comings, I have to say, given what is out there, and the current state of the Yankees starting pitching, I wouldn't be unhappy to see Pettitte return for a year or two, would you?

Comments (185)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-12-05 17:46:43
1.   its430
Heck yeah.

Especially since it might get my girlfriend more interested in watching baseball again. The ladies...they love the Moose and the Pettitte.

2006-12-05 17:59:37
2.   uburoisc
I'd take Andy for 2 years at 13 mil a year; his numbers after the all star break were quite good. And, yeah, my gal would watch more games, too. Go get him, Cash.
2006-12-05 18:01:25
3.   jakewoods
Werent sorry when he left?

They would have won the 04 world series with him and you think he loses game 5 in Anaheim in '05?

2006-12-05 18:01:37
4.   Simone
The Red Sox just signed JD Drew to a 5 year/$70 million contract. So much for the Red Sox having a budget and getting younger. Hilarious.
2006-12-05 18:03:08
5.   Simone
If Andy is healthy, he is a good signing for the Yankees who desperately need pitching. I wouldn't be surprised if he just using the Yankees for leverage though.
2006-12-05 18:03:42
6.   yankz
Here's the retrosheet data for that Game 5 (thanks mehmattski): http://tinyurl.com/y93dl9

I had no idea that the rookie Jeter batted leadoff. Check out our boy Cecil Fielder.

2006-12-05 18:08:47
7.   tommyl
4 Tim Heyman is also reporting that the Manny talks are "all but dead." Sigh, I guess you can't get everything you want.

On an actually happy Red Sox note, ESPN is reporting that Jon Lester's cancer is in remission and he hopes to be back for spring training. That's great news for a young, talented kid.

2006-12-05 18:10:23
8.   tommyl
And Maddux just signed a deal with the Padres. $10 million for the first year with a complicated set of team and player options for the second based on how many innings he pitches in 2007.
2006-12-05 18:16:54
9.   mehmattski
I posted this over at ww.com, so sorry for the double post, but I really don't have any other points to make...

Injury risk aside, I think the stats tell a different story. I have warm and fuzzy feelings about Andy Pettitte just like everyone else, but a recent post over at Canyon of Heroes got me thinking that the feeling may be partly a fan bias. Wishing to guage the expectations of Igawa, Mike Plugh compared his Davenport translations to those of Pettitte... and if we were willing to accept years like this from Pettitte (1999):

14-11 4.70 ERA 10.14 H/9 4.18 BB/9 5.68 K/9

Then we should be able to accept similar seasons from Igawa. That said, there are some disturbing trends from Pettitte:

2003 4.02 ERA 9.81 H/9 0.91 HR/9 2.16 BB/9 7.78 K/9
2004 3.90 ERA 7.70 H/9 0.87 HR/9 3.36 BB/9 8.57 K/9
2005 2.39 ERA 7.61 H/9 0.69 HR/9 1.66 BB/9 6.92 K/9
2006 4.20 ERA 9.99 H/9 1.13 HR/9 2.94 BB/9 7.47 K/9

Pettitte's Davenport Translations paint a similar picture:
2003 6 PRAA 4.26 DERA
2004 7 PRAA 3.28 DERA
2005 38 PRAA 2.93 DERA
2006 -1 PRAA 4.52 DERA

In this case, I think you must make a conclusion that Mr. Pettitte's his 2005 was a lightning-in-a-bottle year and going forward, we can expect his numbers to decline to the point where a Darrel Rasner can easily eclipse Pettitte's production.

Besides, aren't the Yankees going to retire #46 after what Scott Erickson did this season?

2006-12-05 18:23:28
10.   yankz
Looking at Beam's minor league stats (http://tinyurl.com/y25tb8) I'm beginning to think he was just rushed and can contribute. His 06 minor league stats are pretty silly.
2006-12-05 18:43:13
11.   fgasparini
6 Interesting to me that Hayes started over Boggs. Maybe Hayes had some crazy numbers against Smoltz, but can you imagine Torre starting a journeyman over a future HOFer today? No, you cannot.
2006-12-05 18:44:50
12.   rabid stan
9 Pettitte's April and May were atrocious. That he got his ERA to 4.2 after it had been as high as 6 in early June and 5.3 before the break is nothing to sneeze at.

Excepting those two months, his numbers are actually pretty stable. His K, BB and HR rates are good. 2005 would be too much to hope for, but 2004 with the bump that comes with pitching in the AL wouldn't be so bad, as long as the contract is short.

2006-12-05 19:01:52
13.   monkeypants
11 No more than I can imagine dropping a futer HOFer to 8th in the lineup to 'help' him. Actually, Boggs didn't hit that well in the series (actually, no one on the Yanks did that year), so Torre went with the hunch. He also benched Tino for Fielder.
2006-12-05 19:15:41
14.   mehmattski
Here are the same numbers over the same period for a younger left handed free agent starting pitcher:

Year ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 PRAA DERA
2003 4.34 9.03 1.21 2.93 7.42 3 4.31
2004 4.06 7.80 1.19 4.06 7.66 17 3.63
2005 5.56 9.62 1.64 4.13 6.84 -13 5.29
2006 4.31 8.87 1.39 4.01 7.93 2 4.43

That'd be Ted Lilly, and if you're willing to accept that at least some of the difference in HR and BB rate is due to facing 9 hitters instead of 8, then what you're looking at is similar pitchers. One happened to have a fluky good season in 2005, the other had a fluky bad season, and both were similar in 2006.

Given that both pitchers have been tied to the Yankees this offseason, the question is this: 36 year old Pettitte at $15 million/yr for 2 years, or 30 year old Lilly for $10 million/yr for 4 years?

2006-12-05 19:17:03
15.   ChuckM
They just showed Jeter sitting in the crowd at the Victoria Secret's fashion show-it's good to be the King. LOL
2006-12-05 19:25:40
16.   Jeteupthemiddle
3 You are right. We would have won the World Series in 2004. Pettitte's rooting from the DL surely would have put us over the top. (cue someone to tell me that he got injured batting...however, with his injury history, wouldn't it be likely he could have gotten hurt anyway?...point is, we can't assume he wouldn't have been hurt in the AL).

Also, considering his was good half the time, and terrible the other half of the time in the playoffs, it wouldn't have been shocking if he lost Game 5 of the Anaheim series in '05.

I am a Pettitte fan, but I must agree that Yankee fans overrate him like woah.

2006-12-05 19:39:26
17.   yankz
15 The things I'd do to trade places for a day...

If he's not with Biel, how many of those models do you think he's taking home today?

2006-12-05 19:56:27
18.   Mr Faded Glory
jakewoods completely forgets the 2001 World Series
2006-12-05 20:12:32
19.   brockdc
14The more I think about the prospect of signing Pettite, the less sense it makes - and you nailed it in your post. Pettite is old, his elbow is suspect, and he would not address the Yanks' need for a #1 or #2 power arm (not that anyone currently available would). Also, wouldn't he cost a #1 pick (not sure if he's been offered arbitration yet)? I love the guy, but...

...pass.

2006-12-05 20:14:50
20.   OldYanksFan
Wow... the Sox have spent 51m(DM), 70m(Drew), 36m(Lugo), still have to sign DM(40-50m) and may still have a few more buys happening.

Menwhile, the Yankees have gotten 4 good young arms and trimmed 30m from the payroll.

I am surprised to see Drew has a career OPS over .900. If he stays healthy, the Sox have some real firepower this year.

I think making judgements on this year's salaries is a mistake. This year is an aberation. 6 years ago, we had 25m and 20m signings (ARod & Manny) but haven't had any since. Any is not worth 26m, but maybe be are getting a little desparate.

Our money is better spent in 2008... although we do need better pitching to compete with a better (then 2006) Red Sox team.

2006-12-05 20:28:24
21.   randym77
I'd take a pass on Pettitte, too. He's not that old, but given how injury-prone he is, I think he'll be another Randy Johnson. And I don't mean that in a good way.

I'm still hoping we can pry a young arm from the Marlins. Not necessarily Willis. One of their lesser-known pitchers might be a better fit.

2006-12-05 20:34:45
22.   wsporter
19 He was not offered arbitration.

Isn't Santana FA eligible after the 2008 season? I could see busting the bank on that in a major way. If Zito gets $100 mil. this year what will the big guy be worth when his turn at the trough comes around?

2006-12-05 20:51:46
23.   Zack
20 Drew has an ops above .900 but barely, and in reality, his ops has topped .900 only thrice (not counting his cup of tea 98). He's never played in more than 146 games, and his only .900 ops season that was even remotly close to a fulls eason was his great 2004. He averges 120 games a season, although half of his 8 "full" seasons were right around 100 games. He's also got a marked split lefty vs. righty, no surprise. And you want to know the funniest thing? His most similar batter is none other than Trot Nixon! Followed by Richard Hidalgo(?!?)

So, yeah, I think paying 14/year for those #s seem steep to me, but thats just me.

Lets not even get into Lugo...

2006-12-05 21:02:01
24.   Zack
By my calculations, here is the Sox roster and salaries if the season started now:
C - Jason Varitek - $9MM
1B - Kevin Youkilis - $0.4MM
2B - Dustin Pedroia - 0.3MM
SS – Julio Lugo 9MM
3B - Mike Lowell - $9MM
LF - Manny Ramirez - $18MM
CF - Coco Crisp - $3.5MM
RF - Wily Mo Pena - $2.5MM, Eric Hinske - $5.625MM, JD Drew 14 MM
DH - David Ortiz - $12.5MM

SP - Curt Schilling - $13MM
SP - Josh Beckett - $6MM
SP - Tim Wakefield - $4MM
SP - Jonathan Papelbon - $0.35MM
SP – Matsuzaka 14/25 MM?
SP - Matt Clement - $9.5MM
SP - Jon Lester - $0.35MM

RP -
RP - Julian Tavarez - $3.1MM
RP - Craig Hansen - $1MM
RP - Manny Delcarmen - $0.35MM
RP -
RP -
RP - Craig Breslow - $0.3MM

Missing a few RP spots, that leaves them at ~$136, but thats only counting Matsuzaka at the $14 that he might get. Factor in the total cost per year around 25 MM if you consider the bid and it goes up to about $145 mill.

So unless the Sux trade Manny, which i don't think they will be as of now, and a few more RP signings perhaps, and you are looking at a Red Sox team with a payroll right around $150 million, and a Yanks team with a payroll right around $170 million. So much for the "huge" gap between the two teams, heck, thats only one Manny salary!

Please correct any of my figures there...

2006-12-05 23:14:37
25.   mikeplugh
24 I have the Red Sox, based on those numbers (Matsuzaka at $14 million) at $172.5 million after the 40% luxury tax. $123.275 for the base salaries. That's with Manny, and without a closer or a complete staff of relievers. In the end, if they keep Manny next year, and add a few more relief pitchers they could be somewhere near $180 million, plus the posting fee for one year. Assuming they get Matsuzaka for 6 years, that fee would be a little over $8 million.

It's conceivable that the Red Sox payroll, including one year of posting money, would be around $190 million next season. I think they're going to eventually trade Manny to pare that down a bit.

2006-12-06 01:42:34
26.   Jukeofurl
Get Andy & Zito. Why be the NYY if you can't reload with serious ammo. The Yankees are the best & worst of the state of MLB. Tradition is just swell--winning is better. If they implemented a Sunday uni, the additional $ales alone could pay for a new anything. Every other team has done it AND using Yankee money to do it.
2006-12-06 02:53:32
27.   mikeplugh
26 Juke....

I'm sorry but it doesn't sound like a Yankee fan to say that the Bombers should have a Sunday uni. The very idea of that is beyond revolting to me. The Yankees are the Yankees, not for some free spending tradition, but rather because they do things in an understated and professional way. The Yankees are easy to root for, not because they always win, but because they do it with class and dignity.

That image is protected very carefully, and while there is some measure of hypocrisy in it when Giambi was all juiced up or when John Sterling makes another stupid home run call, for example, for the most part the Yankees have kept themselves above all the minor league crap that other teams have fallen into. If it's cool that they get a Sunday uniform, then they might as well get a mascot, put an animatronic Babe Ruth in Monument Park, name the Stadium the Billboard Music Awards Yankee Stadium, and set off fireworks for every new girlfriend Jeter is seen with.

No Sunday uniform, and absolutley no $100 million Barry Zito.

2006-12-06 02:58:59
28.   debris
I don't know where Mike's coming up with the $172.5 figure. Zack, your number at $136 seems quite accurate, though I don't think Dice-K is going to get $14 M. You are missing Hideki Okajima at $1.25 M in the bullpen.

I don't see where they have room for Hinske in the roster, though I don't know that they'll be able to move him though his contract suddenly seems reasonable. They do need a guy at the top of the bullpen. Keith Foulke, who was brilliant, scored upon once in 15 appearances after the All Star break last year, and Eric Gagne are possibilities, neither of whom should break the bank for obvious reasons. I have heard that the Sox goal is to keep the payroll under the $140 M threshold.

As for the Yankees and $170, not happening. without Wang and Cano, but of whom should get long term contracts with arbitration eligibility one short year away and without Proctor and Melky, the Yanks already have $175.5 M committed to 13 players:

Arod 27
Jeter 20
Giambi 21
Johnson 16
Abreu 15
Damon 13
Matsui 13
Mussina 11.5
Rivera 10.5
Posada 12
Pavano 10
Farnsworth 5.25
Myers 1.25

The desparately needed Pettitte would likely put them just a hair over $200 M.

2006-12-06 03:21:20
29.   OldYanksFan
26 Juke.. I have to agree with everything that Mike said in 27 except "fireworks for every new girlfriend Jeter is seen with" sounds kinda cool.

28 I think ARod costs us about 18m this year, RJ is off the books next year and Jason after 2008.

There was a time when, for a player, the prestige of playing in NY for the Yankees was more important than the highest bid (see Beltran, Carlos). It also shows motivation on the players part. Jetes is the only player after 2008 that is way overpaid (as Texas kicks in 6-7m for ARod).

It would be nice if the payroll stayed well under $200. The 'Billion$' stadium may be tax free, but it still ain't free. The Yanks have lost money now 3 years in a row. 'We' are still rich, but not rich enough to be stupid.

If Man-of-Cash continues to run the ship as he has done the last 2 years, we will be in good shape. If the Sox continue, they could be in for a big fall.

2006-12-06 03:26:10
30.   debris
Zack,
You're also missing Alex Cora's silly $2 M contract.

"If Man-of-Cash continues to run the ship as he has done the last 2 years, we will be in good shape." It would be nice if the Man-of-Cash knew who his 3-4-5 starters were. (Johnson? Pavano? Who? until Hughes is ready.)

"If the Sox continue, they could be in for a big fall." Please explain.

2006-12-06 03:50:14
31.   randym77
Well, the Yankees have had a mascot. IIRC, its name was Dandy. It just wasn't very popular, so they ditched it. They've never had cheerleaders, thank heaven.

The Sunday/holiday uniform for most teams seems to be the same as the spring training uniform. The Yanks have a spring training uniform already, and fans do buy the jerseys. So I'm not sure they'd really sell any more of them than they already do.

2006-12-06 03:53:57
32.   Jim Dean
30 What the $155 million spent (so far) on unknowns isn't enough indication of the desperation of a third place team?

If the Sox don't make the playoffs, heads will roll, and starting with Lord Theo. Nancy Drew better be healthy and productive. Lugo better play above his averages offensively AND defensively. Paps better not breakdown in September because he has yet to throw over 150 innings. Varitek better find his old vitamins. Beckett better rediscover where he put his head. And Ortiz better stop complaining about this lack of protection.

Oh, and the Sux better find a closer without the yips.

That's alot of betters and thing can't get much better with the prospect pipeline close to dry for a year or two and $155 million just spent on alot of unknowns.

Where were we again?

2006-12-06 03:55:33
33.   Shaun P
30 Hey debris - long time no see!

14 I doubt the Yanks' actually offered $15 mil/1 year for Pettitte. With the luxury tax, that would be equivalent of paying $21 million for 1 year.

Clemens might be worth that (I doubt it, personally) - but Andy isn't.

I could see a 1 year $11 mil deal, perhaps with some incentives, but not much more than that.

2006-12-06 04:27:00
34.   mikeplugh
28 I got the $172 million by adding 40% luxury tax to the total. That is how it works isn't it?

If it's $136 million in raw salary, times .4, equals 54.4. $136 plus 54.4 equals $190.4 million.

The Sox will be on the hook for $190.4 million, plus the roster fillers, plus the Matsuzaka posting money. Sounds like a $200 million payroll to me....Am I wrong?

2006-12-06 04:48:07
35.   Jim Dean
34 I think the threshold is $140.
2006-12-06 04:51:19
36.   Jeteupthemiddle
By my count (including guys like Proctor, Bruney, and other players we have control over and will likely be on the opening day roster) the Yankee Payroll is $153.7M with I think 7 spots to fill--some of which can be filled with other players in the farm. While I included Proctor and Bruney, I did not include guys like Beam, Cox, or Veras.

I have to rework my chart a little bit, so I don't have an exact answer.

2006-12-06 05:31:35
37.   mikeplugh
35 I believe it's $136.5, if I'm not mistaken. The Red Sox will definitely be over that number with the other holes they need to fill....
2006-12-06 05:32:46
38.   C2Coke
Andy Pettitte for 13 or 26 million for a year or two, is much better than a Zito deal, in my opinion.

Looks like we all agree that the Yankees payroll next year will be less than $200 million? Then again, I always try not to get ahead of myself so I will wait a few months before calculating it again...

2006-12-06 06:00:58
39.   RIYank
Mikeplugh is right about the threshold, but the tax is only on the amount above the threshold. So if the Sox come it right about at the $136.5 million mark, they pay essentially no luxury tax at all.
2006-12-06 06:01:41
40.   rbj
33 The problem with Clemens is that he can't pitch a full season anymore. If you go for Roger either 1) have him stay home until the All Star break, or 2) he goes on the 60 day DL in the middle of the season with a groin pull.
I'm fine with Pettitte for a year or two, it will give Hughes time to increase his arm strength and slot in as #5 starter in '08.
2006-12-06 06:17:56
41.   Bob B
The Yankees have never been the same without the pitching of Petttite or the clutch post-season attitude of Paul O'Neal. I'd love to see both Clemons and Pettite. I have no faith in Randy Johnson after these past two years.
2006-12-06 06:43:16
42.   kylepetterson
19 Again, you said it yourself. There is nobody on the market to address their "needs", so why not take a shot at a short term contract (ie: he will be replaced with our young guys before or during the 2008 season) with a guy who showed promise in the last half of last season vs. showering some joker like Zito or Lilly with cash to suck here for the next decade?
2006-12-06 06:52:59
43.   Jim Dean
43 Wurd.
2006-12-06 06:53:32
44.   Jim Dean
42 D'oh!
2006-12-06 07:05:45
45.   jonnystrongleg
42 Zito may or may not be a wise acquisition, but expecting him to suck is foolish. He has never sucked. Even in his worst year he posted a ERA+ better than league average. Most of the time he is a good pitcher who doesn't let up a lot of hits and walks too many. He is left handed and has never missed a start. (according to the NYTimes, this dates back to little league)

He isn't likely to win anymore Cy Young awards, but he'd be a very positive influence on any team in the league. I'm not advocating anything here, but it's ridiculous to say he will suck for the Yanks.

2006-12-06 07:29:14
46.   mehmattski
I'm a little unclear on team salaries, because it so many people calculate them differently. For example, some might say that the Yankees owe A-Rod only $16 million next year, because of the money paid by the Rangers in the trade. However, it's not like A-Rod gets two checks, one from NY and one from TEX, Tom Hicks just sent a big fat check along with A-Rod. The Yankees owe the full $27 million.

I'd calculate the Yankees' team salary this way: assume the $198 million number is correct for the 2006 Yankees. Subtract the following:

Sheffield: $10.8 million
Wright: $7.8 million
Wilson: $3.3 million
Villone: $2.5 million
Dotel: $2 million
Sturtze: $1.5 million
Cairo: $1 million
Bernie: $1.5 million
Total: $30.4 million

And with five roster spots to fill:
Igawa: ~$4.5 million
Pettitte: ~$13 million
First Baseman: ~$4 million
Backup Catcher: ~$2 million
Utility Infielder: ~$2 million
Total: $25.5 million

Of course, this could go up if the Yanks go after Zito/Schmidt, or down if they decide not to sign anyone (hahaha!) But in general, I think what we're looking at is a team salary very similar to last year.

2006-12-06 07:33:45
47.   Jim Dean
nytimes (http://tinyurl.com/yytm4v):

The negotiations are between Boras and the Red Sox, but Boras said there needed to be a "cooperative effort from three parties," a reference to the Seibu Lions, the team Matsuzaka has pitched for in Japan. When a reporter asked Boras if the Lions could give Matsuzaka a parting gift, which would be a way for him to share in the posting fee, Boras said there was no rule against such a gesture.

"We're making every good-faith effort to examine it from a lot of sides to see if there is a way to accomplish something that is fair for all sides," Boras said.

2006-12-06 07:45:08
48.   MVB
Yeah, even though Pettitte may not have overpowering stuff, he still could be a difference maker. Especially in the postseason... Pettitte and Jeter both have a really strong desire to win (something that has been lacking on this team for several years). I'd love to see him back in pinstripes for a year or two.
2006-12-06 07:48:46
49.   wsporter
42 I doubt that that Zito would play below replacement level either and would suspect he would continue to play above it as well. It's just a theory but I suspect Ca$hman's philosophy may be to take the money the Yankees would have spent in the recent past on a Pavano or Wright or even a Musina or Zito and invest it long term in players of the Hughes, Sanchez, Chamberlain, Betances, Kennedy, Clippard, Garcia, Marquez etc variety. I would imagine they believe that 3 or 4 from the list they have in mind will turn into top to mid rotation starters or starter candidates within the next 1 to 3 seasons.

They'll use that money to tie up those youngsters maybe even pre-arbitration (i.e. Reyes/Wright) and fill in the gaps with short term contracts on pitchers such as Ragedy Andy or Maddux or Johnson or Moose or Pavano or whom ever pops up and replace them as those younger cheaper and potentially more productive players become ready. Wang is already in place. It'll be fun to see if he's still a top rotation guy over the next 3 or 4 years as the others arrive.

What is going to be required on our parts is an understanding of the plan, whatever it is, as well as some patience to allow it to produce some benefit. I like the idea (if that is the plan) and I am perfectly willing to forgo bringing Zito and his 12/6 hammer in if it means we can establish a conveyer belt that will bring those young promising players through the Bronx.

I'd sign Pettitte now short term as well even if they have to overpay for him. If we are going to spend long term big on anyone I would wait till Santana's name pops up again as FA eligible after the '08 season.

2006-12-06 07:51:25
50.   mehmattski
Is there a website that tracks the Desire to Win statistic? If so, I'd like to take a look at it. Do they break it down by month, so that we can only sign players who have a Desire to Win in October, and not April-September? Then we could take a look at something like VORP or RC27 and make a Perception/Reality ratio for every player. Only then will we be able to construct the ultimate team of "winners," capable of going 162-0 and sweeping through 11 playoff wins. In the meantime, we're stuck with "losers" like Hideki Matsui, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, Robinson Cano, and all the other players who are worthless due to their naked ring fingers.

Give me a break.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-12-06 07:58:13
51.   ChrisS
I agree with 14, Ted Lilly is a much smarter option than Andy Pettitte or Barry Zito.

And if JD Drew stays healthy, he'll be good, but the Sox just gave 50 million dollars to a 31-year old corner outfielder that has seen more than 140 games only twice (145 & 146) in his career, and is gimpy and petulant on top of that. You would think they would have learned their lesson with Nomar. Every spring training, "if Nomar stays healthy this year, the Sawx will awesome" they'd say. "When Nomar is healthy he's tons better than Jeter".

2006-12-06 08:04:57
52.   rbj
50
I think Desire to Win (DtW) is Clutchness x Heart /2
or DtW = (C*H)/2
2006-12-06 08:05:13
53.   Shaun P
46 Be careful. That $198 million might be the sum of the average annual value of all multi-year deals. IIRC, someone who calculates team payroll (USA Today maybe?) uses the AAV numbers instead of the actual ones.

As best as I can figure, here is what the Yanks owe who for 2007:

Posada - $12M
Giambi - $21.5M (includes $.5M signing bonus)
Cano - $380K
Jeter - $22M (includes two $1M signing bonus payments)
A-Rod - $16M
Abreu - $15M
Damon - $13M
Matsui - $13M
Melky - $380K
Wang - $380K
Moose - $11.5M
Unit - $14.5M ($16M less $1.5M deferred at 0% interest until 2008)
Pavano - $10M
Mo - $10.5M
Farns - $5.25M
Proctor - $380K
Bruney - $380K
Britton - $380K
Myers - $1.25M

That's 19 players, total of $167.78M. Let's presume the Yanks add Igawa at $4M, Villone at $2M, a backup C at $1M, a backup IF at $1M, a 1B at $1.5M, and either Phillips or Guiel makes the team at $380K. That's 25 players, total of $176.66M.

Anything else the Yanks do will just add to that.

2006-12-06 08:06:39
54.   jonnystrongleg
49 Does "patience" just mean not signing a big free agent this year? If "patience" means not aggressively targeting the 2007 World Series, nuts to that.
2006-12-06 08:11:57
55.   Yankee Fan In Boston
has anybody else seen the projections for drew in fenway?

.286 14 HR 60 RBI

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=48

is that worth his deal?

(also, those numbers are based on 475 plate appearances, a total he has reached all of thrice in his 8 "full" seasons.)

heheheh....

2006-12-06 08:17:22
56.   wsporter
54 "If "patience" means not aggressively targeting the 2007 World Series, nuts to that."

That would depend on what you mean by "aggressively targeting". If you mean gutting the farm for a one year run then I'd say "nuts to that." If you mean establishing a plan that will allow us to aggressively contend for and target the Series for years to come including 2007 then I'm all for it and that is precisely what I think Ca$hman is trying to do.

2006-12-06 08:28:40
57.   standuptriple
55 I can't wait to see all the jockeying for the DH-slot in Boston next year. You know Nancy Drew will need some "rest". I was bustin' my Sox connection and asked the hypothetical "Who will play more games between Nancy and Damon over the life of Damon's deal?" No answer as of yet.
With all this talk of Andy why was there little discussion about bringing in hired gun Glavine for 1 yr @ $10M? Yeah, he's an NL guy and may have desired to stay, but isn't Andy getting into the "crafty southpaw" part of his career?
2006-12-06 08:29:21
58.   Shaun P
56 MFD, here here. No point in sacrificing the future just to win one more Serious in '07. Better to sacrifice '07 to win many more Seriouses in the future - and I don't even think its necessary.

55 Thanks for the tip!

2006-12-06 08:30:17
59.   Shaun P
57 Glavine has already resigned with the Mets. Otherwise I'd say its a very good idea.
2006-12-06 08:35:21
60.   standuptriple
59 I know the deal is done, but he seemed to fit the Yanks agenda this year, yet I hardly heard a peep about him. I wouldn't have minded having a guy like Tom grooming the Yanks youth movement.
2006-12-06 08:37:33
61.   jonnystrongleg
56 Yeah, don't gut. But don't punt with the best offense in baseball and a core of guys on the cusp of decline. Win now.

They tried and failed with Matsuzaka. Plan B has yet to emerge. And from the sound of it here, Zito would be a catastrophe. I just don't buy that at all.

2006-12-06 08:39:00
62.   YankeeInMichigan
40 I think you are being way too conservative with Hughes. He can increase is arm strength as a #5 starter (on a strict pitch count and inning count). I would project him as a #5 for the second half of 2007, #3 in 2008 and Ace in 2009.
2006-12-06 08:52:04
63.   OldYanksFan
Question:
Lugo career numbers: 12hr, 59rbi, .277 .340 .402 .742. (based on 162 games)
Last year, at just under 5$m, he beat his career OPS by .020...
so his 2006 salary seemed about right.
The Sox just gave him 4 years @ 9$m.
Based on this and other deals, it looks to me like:
Real$$$ x (1.5 - 1.8) = 2007$$$
Is this about right?
Are his number above average for an AL SS?
Our team has some minor holes, and definitely needs SP, but I'm just about OK doing little to nothing this year (we have already gotten 4 young arms and 1 Japanese arm in the works).... and then go to town in 2008 and 2009
2006-12-06 08:55:09
64.   Schteeve
I'm of two minds on the Pettitte thing. From a "smart business/smart baseball" perspective, it probably doesn't make a whole lot of sense. He's going to be overpaid for what he is.

But from a "entertainment" persepective, I'd love to see him peering over his glove with those gunslinger eyes in the post season at the Stadium, one mo' time.

So as I fan, I say bring him back. As a wannabe analytical dude, they should probably pass.

2006-12-06 09:01:18
65.   OldYanksFan
By the way.... I am not an RJ fan, and his future is in question. But the guy in tenacious (sp?) and has 280 career wins.

I think he will take the mound and pitch his heart out, even if he's in a wheel chair. He knows the clock is ticking. I think he will do anything he can to win 14+ games, and then hope the Yanks will keep him in 2008 for pocket change so he can reach 300.

The guy does not want to retire with 292 wins.

I have a good feeling he will be a decent #3 this year.

2006-12-06 09:03:15
66.   OldYanksFan
64 Well said. For 1 year, it's worth a go, but for 2 years at 13m$ per? Maybe he will take a 'second year based on performance in 2007' clause.
2006-12-06 09:06:34
67.   standuptriple
65 I sort of agree (how's that for ambiguity?). I've always thought RJ was a gamer. He's just too abrasive a personality to not be. If his surgery allows it, I think he'll go out and give 100%. You bet he wants 300 and will do whatever it takes to reach that milestone. He knows his best chance is in pinstripes.
2006-12-06 09:11:54
68.   mehmattski
53 Your numbers look good, other than A-Rod. Here's the details of his absurdly complicated contract: http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=991

From what I'm reading, Texas owes A-Rod $67 million of the total $155 million he gets from 2004 to 2010, including $7 million in 2007. The Yankees are also deferring $1 million of his salary from 2004 to 2010. So if I'm reading this correctly, the Yankees will owe A-Rod $19 million for the 2007 season. (As a side note, A-Rod will continue to be on the Yankees payroll through at least 2025, when he will be 50 years old.

2006-12-06 09:38:34
69.   Shaun P
68 Talk about complicated - that's one heck of a hard-to-understand writeup at mlb4u.com.

One thing I don't get. A-Rod isn't owed $155M from '04-'10; he's owed $179M ($21M in 04, $25M in 05, $25M in 06, $27M in 07, $27M in 08, $27M in 09, and $27M in 10 = $179M). The Rangers are paying $67M of that, leaving the Yanks to pay $112M. $112M/7 = $16M/year.

I took my numbers from Cot's baseball contracts, BTW. He lists the Yanks as owning A-Rod another $64M (or $16M/year) from '07-'10.

2006-12-06 09:39:15
70.   YankeeInMichigan
68 "... the 36M in deferred money became an assignment bonus after trade to the NYY from TEX." I'm not sure who pays this "assignment bonus," but it is to be payed between 2016 and 2025, and it includes 4M of the 2007 salary. That brings the Yanks' 2007 A-Rod bill down to 15M (27M - 7M by Texas - 4M original deferral - 1M additional deferral).
2006-12-06 09:46:23
71.   YankeeInMichigan
69 If Texas is responsible for the "assignment bonus" (which would make sense, since they are doing the "assigning"), then your numbers are right on. The Yanks owe A-Rod another $64M, 4M of which (1M per year) will be payed without interest in 2011. So the immediate 2007 bill is $15M.

These calculations ignore the clause "he has a guaranteed salary increase for 2009 and 2010 by the higher of the following: 5M or 1M greater than average annual value of the position player w/ highest annual average salary." Considering this, the Yankees still owe at least $74M.

2006-12-06 09:56:00
72.   wsporter
61 Johnny, I agree that Zito would not be a disaster and would be a top notch 3 for us behind Wang and Musina. I think the opinions here are about evenly split on that point.

I think though the Yankees can get what Zito would give us for a year or two out of Pettitte and then replace him with a more productive, younger and cheaper talent within a shorter time frame.

I could be wrong but it seems to me that signing Zito long term will block one of those young, inexpensive guys. My sense of this is that they are looking to fill the rotation with these home grown kids, and [maybe] add a high price talent like Santana to lead the mix. (If anyone can't tell, I really want them to go get Santana after '08)

I think this year will tell the tale. Will Sanchez, Joba, Hughes and the rest of the group continue to make strides toward the majors? A number of web publications say that Sanchez and Hughes are ready for the show now. It sounds like Kennedy and Jobba will need at least a year. Where will Clippard have progressed by the beginning of August at AAA? Betances, Angel Reyes, Zach McAllister, Ivan Nova and the others are miles away right now. Are there any pleasant surprises on the DeSalvo, Horne, Marquez list?

We're in a great spot right now; we have a super competitive team and a pitching rich farm. (right hand heavy though it is) There aren't many organizations that can make that claim. It allows us to be excited about this year as well as the future.

2006-12-06 10:08:39
73.   kylepetterson
61 While I don't think that Zito's performance will be a disaster, I think that signing him would be. #1 he's going to get approximately 65 bazillion a year, #2 it's going to have to be for around 40 or 50 years, and #3 I don't think that he's going to be a front of the rotation guys, especially for years and years to come.
2006-12-06 10:13:58
74.   kylepetterson
73 Please forgive the no-so-firm grip I have on the English language.

PS. I am simply awesome, I am awesome. That's right. Bold, baby! Bold!

2006-12-06 10:14:10
75.   jonnystrongleg
71 Sounds good. I don't believe signing a guy now would block anyone - there are 5 slots to fill this year and every year - but I guess it could hurt in 2008 if Santana is available.
2006-12-06 10:19:15
76.   jonnystrongleg
73 Yes, that contract could prove troublesome cum year 40 bazillion.
2006-12-06 10:22:54
77.   Yankee Fan In Boston
72 75 oh dear... santana... he'd be silly to give the twins a hometown discount, but classy enough to consider it.

but that would be amazing.

also, according to espndesportes.com, the manny trade rumors have been resurrected. i plugged some espanol into an online translator. here's a taste of what i got:

"The movement, that it contradicts one recent declaration of manager of Boston, Terry Francona, Wednesday could be completed, it assured the source.
"Something great could happen Wednesday. He would surprise to me that Ramirez is not changed to Seattle or east Los Angeles day ", it said the source.
The Dodgers would yield to the right Brad Penny and a pair of prospectos, whereas the Sailors have offered to Adrian Beltré and Richie Sexson, but Boston insists on including to one of two throwers, between the locking J.J. Putz and the preinn Rafael Soriano."

2006-12-06 10:28:19
78.   kylepetterson
77 I would be surprised if the Dodgers traded any of their prospectos...
2006-12-06 10:29:09
79.   Yankee Fan In Boston
78 they could trade a pair of prospectos... if that is what it took and they felt desperate.

...but don't count the sailors out...

2006-12-06 10:37:07
80.   wsporter
I just checked in at LoHud and found that Pete has coined what is for me the best Pavano nickname I have seen yet – "the Rajah of Rehab". It just seems to fit so well. I have a vision of Sulayman Pavano reclining on velvet cushions, leering his leer at dancing girls while worrying about his latest booboo.

If it's a repeat I apologize it just struck me as very funny. I hope all that high-tech rehab works out for the Rajah.

2006-12-06 10:45:19
81.   Yankee Fan In Boston
according to mlb.com, schmidt is going to the dodgers. 3 years, $47M

http://tinyurl.com/yxrs2u

2006-12-06 10:57:09
82.   Count Zero
Just because memory is selective...

Andy Pettitte Career Postseason Totals:
14-9, 4.08 ERA, 212.0 IP, 1.35 WHIP, 5.69 K/9, 24HR, 2.31 K/BB

Yeah, he pitched some great games in the PS...he also pitched some real dogs.

2006-12-06 11:06:38
83.   wsporter
It's not like anyone is saying Pettitte is the second coming of Warren Spahn. He did turn in his share of el stinkos over the years but given the Yankees need and what's available I think he makes some sense on a short term basis.
2006-12-06 11:12:57
84.   Yankee Fan In Boston
83 if it is worth doing, ca$hman will deem it so, and it shall be done on terms he sees as being benefitial.

sit back. kick your feet up.

this is brian ca$hman.

trust him.

2006-12-06 11:29:40
85.   wsporter
84 I am, they are, I do.

Well, if I put my feet up I can't reach the keyboard so other than that they are. It's a slow day for me so I have a chance to do some catch up scratching of my Yankees blogging itch in a big way.

2006-12-06 11:36:43
86.   Yankee Fan In Boston
85 that advice wasn't meant specifically for you, just a general suggestion for anyone considering the signing.

but glad to hear you're taking it easy.

i personally have made a deliberate descision not to do a bit of work today. i am sitting here on the clock surfing, looking for any bit of baseball news i can find.

2006-12-06 11:37:11
87.   Zack
debris, where you been over the past year or so?

I just thought it was interesting that out of the two teams, the one pleading pverty is INCREASING its payroll, while the one that is somehow killing the game is showing fiscal restraint, so that the so called unbrigable gap between them is actually shrinking...go figure...

2006-12-06 11:37:18
88.   RIYank
85 Gotta learn to type with your toes, like the rest of us monkeys.

I just looked at Johan Santana's player card. Last year he earned $8.75 million. I assume it's a bit more this year. Julio Lugo will earn $9 million. Well, anyway, that's how much he will be paid. J. D. Drew gets $14 million.

I'm calling for a congressional investigation.

2006-12-06 11:43:46
89.   mainmanmaitland
I have nothing personal against Andy but I have no wish to see him pitching for the Yanks again. In fact I don't want to see the Yanks invest in any pitcher over the age of 30 at this point (the modification of Mussina's contract is the exception). If we have learned anything over the last 6 years of Yankees baseball, we know that the rotation needs to get younger and better. I don't see how bringing Pettitte back to the fold helps us achieve any of those goals. He's been hurt for half of his contract with the Astros and hasn't had a truly healthy year since he went to Houston.

I'm thinking that some combination of the rookies (Sanchez, Rasner, Hughes etc) plus Igawa would be far more effective and cheaper than bringing back Andy.

That's my two cents....

2006-12-06 11:44:21
90.   wsporter
88 Check him out over at Cot's. It's nearly criminal that he makes what he does and Lugo makes what he will.

In response to YFB at 77 I think Santana already gave the Twinkies a home town discount. 08/09 looks like the time for that young man to cash in. Hopefully that will coincide with opening the new ball park. What the hell, I can dream can't I?

2006-12-06 11:47:02
91.   Shaun P
88 The problem with the "free market" of free agents is that there is a very limited supply on a yearly basis and most economic models presume rational actors. Many teams are clearly not rational actors.

That is not directed so much at the Sox, but at the Dodgers and Angels vis a vis Pierre and Matthews . . .

In heaven, Charlie Finley must delight in telling some of the old guard moron owners of the 70s that yes, he was right, they should have let all the players be free agents every year.

If the Twins don't sign Santana to a long-term extension in the next year and a half or so, they are fools. Which is fine by me, if the Yanks end up with him. ;)

2006-12-06 12:19:23
92.   RIYank
Cot's, thanks. I didn't know what it was but just found it by googling.
2006-12-06 12:20:18
93.   Sliced Bread
89 Good post, mainmanmaitland.

I was not happy to see Pettitte go, but moving forward in December of 2006 I don't want him back.

I agree with you that the Yanks should only invest in young arms at this point.

I haven't had a constructive thought about the Yanks since Oct. 6th, exactly two months ago tonight -- when Kenny Rogers disembowled the Yanks in that horrifying curve-hangin', cheese throwin', fist pumpin', give me the fuggin' ball Friday night freakshow performance.

Been ransacking the baseball compartment of my brain since, trying to make sense of the game, and the team I thought I knew so well.

The only thing that makes sense to me is getting younger.

Kenny Rogers? How the fug did that happ... en? (Sliced Bread twitches a few times, and dozes off, retreating again into restless hibernation.)

2006-12-06 12:21:38
94.   thelarmis
57 Cliff did mention Glavine once the other week when everything was up in the air between the Muts and Bravos. he'll get to 300 wins next season - amazing!

80 Yeah, Pete Abe has been calling "Glass Carl" (nomaas) the "Rajah of Rehab" for quite awhile now. Very funny, indeed!

82 It might be 13 Postseason victories for Pettitte. Yeah, after the 3 incredible wins at The Stadium in the 01 Serious, he threw a clunker at the BOB. What was it - i think we lost 15-2! : / Still, i'd like to see that penetrating stare and #46 on the mound again. And, no, I don't mean Donovan Osbourne!

Ah, Supernatural would be sweeeeet in Da Bronx. Who knows, we'll see...

2006-12-06 12:26:39
95.   Yankee Fan In Boston
lilly will choose between the cubs and yankees. his agent meets with ca$hman tonight.

http://tinyurl.com/yn66aa

2006-12-06 12:31:54
96.   standuptriple
94 I'm somewhat partial to Porcelin Pavano. You have the figurine/doll angle and the toilet to decide from. Covers the bases, IMO.
2006-12-06 12:38:00
97.   Count Zero
89 93 Precisely. I think we all agree on that, but then somebody mentions Pettitte or Clemens and people get all nostalgic and next thing you know we're back to signing falling apart veteran starters for $13MM+ per year.

The consensus seems to be, "Oh but this is different because it's Pettitte!" No...it's the same.

2006-12-06 12:40:51
98.   wsporter
(Lilly 4 years) + (Pettitte 1 year) - Pavano = Doable?
2006-12-06 12:54:06
99.   mehmattski
98 I think I need to get out my slide rule.
2006-12-06 12:56:05
100.   OldYanksFan
From the YES site: According to source, club offered lefty (Pettitte)one-year deal at $15M

While opinions here differ, I believe I can state that almost everyone agrees we need to get younger and avoid 'aged veterans' and longterm pitching contracts.

However, lets NOT let this good and true strategy/philosophy turn into rigid dogma. You simply can't get that hurt signing anyone to a one year deal.... even Julio Franco's father. It doesn't matter how old they are if they had good numbers last year.

We made a big mistake passing on Piazza last year, because it went against our (mutually agreed on) philosophy. Similarly with Frank Thomas (although we didn't have a position for him). These 2 guys produced more per $$ then any (non kid) player.

Pettitte may fill a hole for one year. I am against 2 years and 15$m seems high, but Im OK that he's an old, past-his-prime vet.

Especially in a poor FA market with a better one coming in the next year or two, a one-year, stop-gap player is a fine strategy.

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-12-06 13:03:01
101.   mainmanmaitland
The problem with nostalgia is that it always glosses over the bad parts of the story.

Nostalgia has people remembering the young Andy Pettitte who helped the Yanks win 4 World Series and pitched so well for us in the mid to late 90's.

Unfortunately nostalgia has people forgeting that this is the same Andy Pettitte got blown out by the Diamondbacks in game 6 of the 2001 WS and has had elbow problems for the past 3 years.

I hope that all this talk about Andy Pettitte is a ploy on Cashman's part to bring down the price on Lilly.

I would rather the Yankees stay out of the high end of this year's free agent market and continue to get younger via trades, etc but if we have to go get a free agent pitcher I would rather it be Lilly since he is younger than Pettitte, can pitch in the AL East and seems to own the Red Sox.

2006-12-06 13:04:13
102.   Jim Dean
64 I'm with Steeeeeeve. Even as overpriced re-sign Pettitte for one year with a mutual option.

Then trade for, or sign, Zambrano later in 2007.

Hughes will be more than ready. Either he'll get his chance with injuries or he'll build arm strength.

Pettitte seems like a no brainer even if he's overpaid. Pettitte is a known commodity and he'll get to work with Gator! How about a little Louisiana Lightning in his Texas Twang?

2006-12-06 13:04:30
103.   wsporter
99 Yeah, it crashed my laptop. I'm not sure I'm crazy about the idea. It certainly would make any money spent on Igawa seem redundant.

I'm harboring no illusions that either will be the key to a pennant. I prefer Andy for 1 to Lilly for 4 for reasons of flexibility and even though it's not my money, cost. My suspicion is that performance will be about the same with equal parts bulldog, moxy and talent.

2006-12-06 13:09:50
104.   Sliced Bread
98 Doable, yes, but desirable?

Nothing against Lilly and Pettitte (or any effective lefty with a feminine surname) but I don't feel like getting back together with either past-prime ex at this point -- but if Ca$hmoney is up an expensive romp with Ted and/or Andy for old time's sake, let's at least hope he's playing hard to get.

2006-12-06 13:10:55
105.   mehmattski
103 I agree. What I wrote back in 14 was not so much to say that we should sign the younger, similar Lilly. It was to say that neither one is the pitching savior many Yankees fans have been looking for. I just don't think Ted Lilly is a very good pitcher. If he's signed, we're right back in the Jaret Wright/Carl Pavano era of signing mediocre pitchers to crippling contracts, and Cashman would immediately lose most of the respect he gained from me in late July.
2006-12-06 13:17:44
106.   kylepetterson
105 "...and Cashman would immediately lose most of the respect he gained from me in late July."

Which is the real reason he is doing any of this.

2006-12-06 13:20:28
107.   Bama Yankee
98 "(Lilly 4 years) + (Pettitte 1 year) - Pavano = Doable?"

I say we just sign this Doable guy. If he is better than both Lilly and Pettitte combined without the problems of Pavano, then he would be worth a look right? ;-)

2006-12-06 13:23:14
108.   wsporter
107 "I say we just sign this Doable guy."

What if Doable is a girl?

2006-12-06 13:23:40
109.   mehmattski
106 My respect is a highly sought after, if abstract, commodity. Why, such people as Richard Dawkins and Mike Krzyzewski have said that my respect for them is their chief reason for getting out of bed in the morning. One wonders how folks like Pat Robertson, Larry Lucciano, and Daniel Snyder survive.
2006-12-06 13:26:15
110.   kylepetterson
109 My desire to not wet the bed is my chief reason for getting out of bed in the morning.
2006-12-06 13:26:35
111.   Yankee Fan In Boston
109 trading on mehmattski's respect is up three full points today. my advice: buy.
2006-12-06 13:31:03
112.   OldYanksFan
108 No, Doeable is the girl.
2006-12-06 13:33:11
113.   standuptriple
111 I think it's peaked. Sell!
2006-12-06 13:33:32
114.   Bama Yankee
108 Sign her for sure. Going through life with a name like that, she deserves to sign a big contract...
2006-12-06 13:33:51
115.   Yankee Fan In Boston
113 oh crap...
2006-12-06 13:34:19
116.   kdw
110 Now that's funny.
2006-12-06 13:34:32
117.   Shaun P
107 Who is Doable?

103 Right on, MFD. As OYF said, a 1 year contract doesn't hurt anyone.

Bringing Pettitte back for 1 year isn't a bad idea. I don't expect him to be an 'ace' - I expect him to be a slightly above average pitcher.

Lastly, the context for signing Pettitte now for 1 year is very different from the context of the Pavano/Wright signings. Pavano and Wright were both counted on to be members of the rotation; the only real in-house alternative was Wang.

Now, if Pettitte were to get hurt, there are a plethora of useful options to step in - Rasner, Karstens, Henn, White, Sanchez, and later in the season, perhaps Hughes and/or Clippard. Perhaps even EDSP.

2006-12-06 13:38:15
118.   C2Coke
108 With two feminine surnames and one who behaves like a girl, Doable being a girl is highly possble.

I don't see the point of signing both Lilly and Pettitte especially we should be getting Igawa as well. Pettitte with a deal with a much shorter time makes more sense than signing Lilly.

Lilly is only 3.3 years younger, with a 4 year contract, he will be the same age when Pettitte gets out next year or two. And Lilly is not a better pitcher than Pettite. I agree with mehmattski, when I saw Lilly pitching for the Jays last season, I had little trust for him as the ball left his hand...

2006-12-06 13:41:18
119.   Bama Yankee
117 "Who is Doable?"

Doable Garcia, Karim's sister...

2006-12-06 13:41:31
120.   C2Coke
118 Just to make it more clear, I meant minus the one who behaves like a girl.
2006-12-06 13:42:01
121.   standuptriple
I wonder how many of these fairly obvious bluffs Ca$h feels inclined to call?
(dream sequence)
"Hey Lilly, yeah, The Boss and I talked it over and we can't go over 3 yrs and $27M. Sorry. But if that's no good, well, enjoy Wrigley. They've got a ton of history over there and Lou's a standup guy. Besides, you can hit right?"
2006-12-06 13:44:15
122.   Yankee Fan In Boston
118 they won't sign both lilly and pettitte. judging from what was apparently said at a press conference today...

http://gothambaseball.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1051

...the yankees aren't going to announce any big moves at the meetings. looks like ca$hman is giving pettitte a little time.

...sorry, cubbies, you'll have to wait until mr. ca$hman mulls things over.

2006-12-06 13:48:57
123.   BklynBmr
This just posted on Rotoworld:

"Yahoo! Sports' Tim Brown says the Red Sox have asked the Mariners for J.J. Putz, Adam Jones and a third player in return for Manny Ramirez."

------

Sox "have asked"? Hmmm. Theo was quoted this morning that they're in a 'listen-only mode' re: Manny. Whatever, but I hope one of these rumors turn out to be true...

2006-12-06 13:52:15
124.   Zack
Is Adam Jones any good? Can his nickname also be "Pacman?"
2006-12-06 13:52:21
125.   mehmattski
123 Nooooo... there goes my dream of having Randy Johnson, Chien-Ming Wang, JB Cox, and JJ Putz on the same team...
2006-12-06 13:52:34
126.   Yankee Fan In Boston
123 i said it yesterday, and i'll say it again: the sox are trying to trade manny.

yesterday francona was recorded saying things such as:
manny doesn't always run as hard as he could.
i'd like to bench him, but you can't sit that kind of bat.
i wish i could get him to pick it up a bit.

good luck with dl drew, terry.

(supposedly, david ortiz asked the front office to trade manny as well.)

come on Ms and/or dodgers...

2006-12-06 13:53:21
127.   Yankee Fan In Boston
125 alright. now i'll purchase some of your respect.
2006-12-06 13:53:24
128.   Knuckles
Signing older, past-their-prime players to long term deals is dumb.
Signing 30 year old, average players to long terms deals is dumb.
Signing a somewhat known commodity to a 1 year deal, regardless of age, in this market is smart.

Given recent events, leave Lilly be. Jump on the opportunity to treat a 33yr old Pettitte like Clemens of late. 1 year deal, pssibly add some incentives, hope he continues to hold up, then re-assess next winter.

I also think the Yanks should flex their financial muscle and go get Mulder for 2 years. The guy's 2006 numbers look ridiculous. His K rate and walk rate held reasonably steady from the prior years, but was accompanied by a 40 point jump in BABIP from his prior norms: .300 to .339...

Also, unrelated to everything else, I am buying a flight to Tampa tonight to go see some Spring Training in March, a mini reunion with my dad and bro. Cannot wait.

2006-12-06 13:56:53
129.   wsporter
125 Stock is up! With a bullet.
2006-12-06 14:00:08
130.   RIYank
Why would they sign Julio Lugo and then trade for Adam Jones?
2006-12-06 14:06:15
131.   Shaun P
Why would the Mariners give up Adam Jones?
2006-12-06 14:11:44
132.   Simone
Whatever Pettitte decides, I think the Yankees should sign Lilly. A 4.31 ERA in the AL is nothing to sneeze at and Lilly usually does well against the Red Sox. A 4 year contract takes Lilly to 34 years which isn't that old.
2006-12-06 14:20:53
133.   RIYank
Wait -- are there two Adam Joneses on the Mariners???

Who is this guy:
http://tinyurl.com/y5oecx

and who's this guy:
http://tinyurl.com/y2ac6p

2006-12-06 14:30:42
134.   mikeplugh
Hey Simone. Long time, no see.

I disagree. I hope they stay as far away from Lilly as possible. He's a league average pitcher that fluctuates between one good season and one bad. Consistency is a major issue with him, and he just had his good season in his contract year. I'd rather go Pettitte for less years.

The only thing that Lilly has going for him in my book is a good track record against Boston. I'm not buying it for next year as much since they're overhauling their roster. Anything goes.

2006-12-06 14:38:38
135.   kylepetterson
132 Let's assume that the schedule works perfectly and Teddy Ruxpin pitches once every Boston series. That's a whopping six (6) games. Maybe Lilly is the answer.....
2006-12-06 14:42:20
136.   C2Coke
134 If last year was considered as the good year for Lilly, just yet another reason signing him is not a smart move...

I can take a 43-year old Unit who fluctuates from good and bad, a 30 year old with 4 year contract...a big "no thanks."

Then again, I trust the smart man, Cash, who definitely realizes this as well.

2006-12-06 14:51:12
137.   mehmattski
Ted Lilly vs BOS, 2004-2006:
14 GS, 5-4, 3.27 ERA, 2.2 K/BB, 1.4 HR/9 IP
Overall:
4.52 ERA, 1.6 K/BB, 1.4 HR/9 IP

I guess that's technically successful, but even with the 85 inning sample size, can you really say that he's significantly better versus the Red Sox? I don't think so.

2006-12-06 14:59:05
138.   Shaun P
133 I think they are the same guy. Though its not on his PECOTA card, when you do a player search at BP for "Adam Jones", the DT Card lin that comes up next to the PECOTA card link has the same stats as the ESPN player card.

I know he's a CF - he must have played SS in the minors?

2006-12-06 15:03:30
139.   BklynBmr
Lilly is looking like a moot point right now, as P. Abe reports that Pettitte will indeed play next year, according to his agent...
2006-12-06 15:33:38
140.   standuptriple
Can the Cubs even afford any pitching now? I'm beginning to think Lilly doesn't have anybody to dance with (especially at those rates).
2006-12-06 15:38:03
141.   OldYanksFan
More juice from P.Abe:
Andy and his agents are playing this smart. They're going step by step, breaking the news in pieces so that when he leaves Houston to return to the Yankees, it won't be a big shock to the fans there.

That's just my opinion but it's pretty much the way they played it when he left New York for Houston back in 2003.

One year, $15 million and maybe an option for 2008. This stuff with Lilly is just a smokescreen.

2006-12-06 15:41:20
142.   kdw
141 Interesting. There seem to be 2 schools of thought floating around, one thinking the signs are pointing to Andy coming back to NY and the other that he's driving up the price for Houston. My rose-colored glasses can't accept the last one, not from the player who said he couldn't leave for Boston because he couldn't bear to pitch against the team with whom he'd been in the trenches.
2006-12-06 15:48:59
143.   OldYanksFan
From the Boston Herald: (my numbers)
1) The agent said Major League Baseball's recent reminder that side deals between ballclubs like the Red Sox and Seibu is not a good thing and that "the integrity of the posting would be flawed" if it were allowed.

2) Boras noted, however, that no rules exist that would prohibit Seibu from paying money to Matsuzaka to help him come to a decision where he would sign with the Red Sox and the Lions collect their $51.11 million.

This is bullshit, as 1) and 2) are the same thing. We Post 60$m to guarantee we get to talk, and te Japanese then pay DM 20$m. How about we post 80$m and the Japanese pay DM 40$m.

A deal between Red Sox and Seibu (1) is the exact same thing as a deal between DM and Seibu (2), as the Sox save money either way. I hope this shit doesn't fly past MLB.

2006-12-06 15:54:46
144.   Jeteupthemiddle
Ok, I recalculated my payroll. The number I get is $173.9M with 6 spots to fill.

This number includes: $4M for Jaret Wright as that is how much the Yankees sent to Baltimore. I believe that money counts toward the salary.

Also, I guessed that the Yankees would sign Igawa for $5M. Reports are that he is looking for between $4M and $4.5M. I may have overestimated.

As for raises for players not yet arbitration eligable, I guessed. If anyone thinks they have more accurate numbers for those, please tell me.

In millions:

Proctor: .4
Bruney: .35
Cano: .4
Wang: .5
Cabrera: .35

I decided on numbers based on what they made last year, but I could be off give or take a few .1.

2006-12-06 15:56:06
145.   standuptriple
143 If something like that goes down I expect a huge penalty. I mean like the one Stern handed down when the T-Wolves tried that crap with Joe Smith. Immediately kill the deal and take multiple 1st round draft picks (and in MLB's case 2nds and maybe 3rds) to make an example out of them. A nice little probation/ substantial fine for Boras would also be required, IMO.
2006-12-06 16:13:19
146.   markp
If the Yankees did it, there'd be a huge stink and it would be dealt with harshly. Since it's Bud's buddy in Beantown (sorry), it'll happen without any comment.
2006-12-06 16:25:19
147.   Jim Dean
125 Now that's funny.

143 See also 47.

2006-12-06 16:52:02
148.   Yankee Fan In Boston
si.com is saying that lilly is turning down 44M over 4 years with the cubs to take 36M over 4 years to join the yankees.

uh oh...

(trust ca$hman trust ca$hman trust ca$hman...)

2006-12-06 16:53:38
149.   Yankee Fan In Boston
here's a link:
http://tinyurl.com/y75o9a
2006-12-06 16:57:03
150.   Simone
134 Hey Mike. I know that Lilly would be overpaid and merely average, but I am thinking of him as a Jeff Weaver type. Lilly can contribute, is relatively healthy and has the stuff that could win a playoff game. Based on the comments coming out the Winter meetings, it doesn't seem likely that the Yankees will sign him anyway.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2006-12-06 16:57:50
151.   kdw
148 I take the SI piece to mean that Lilly may have indicated he'd prefer the Yankees but that Cashman hasn't decided he'd prefer to have Lilly. I don't think Lilly has actually turned down the Cubs because he doesn't have an offer from the Yankees right now.
2006-12-06 16:59:02
152.   Simone
148 I think that Lilly at this price is a good deal for the Yankees. Lilly clearly wants to come back home and is willing to return at a discounted price so I say, "welcome him back, Brain."
2006-12-06 17:00:24
153.   Yankee Fan In Boston
wait. rosenthal is saying the cubs got lilly.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6246392

trust ca$hman.

ahhhh...

2006-12-06 17:00:31
154.   Simone
152 LOL! I meant to write "welcome him back, Brian."
2006-12-06 17:01:47
155.   Yankee Fan In Boston
151 i read that the yankees did indeed make an offer.

i'm in class right now, or i'd go serching for it...

2006-12-06 17:02:40
156.   Simone
153 Oh well, see you during interleague play, Ted.
2006-12-06 17:08:16
157.   Yankee Fan In Boston
154 in this case, either spelling applies.
2006-12-06 17:15:23
158.   Yankee Fan In Boston
so does this mean that pettitte is coming back, or is ca$hman serious when he says that he's comfortable with what he has?

either way, i trust him.

2006-12-06 17:27:15
159.   Simone
158 As long as Cash is as comfortable with what he has for pitching right now as he was with Bubba playing center last season, I trust his judgment.

The Yankees' pitching situation is still shaky in my view. Only Wang is close to a sure thing to remain healthy and pitch well. Everyone else is a toss up and that isn't good, period.

2006-12-06 17:31:06
160.   Yankee Fan In Boston
159 heh.

one insurance arm, at a reasonable price (= via trade) would be a good idea.

i heard that tim hudson is available for relief arms... (seattle times)

2006-12-06 17:31:35
161.   kdw
So while I'm hoping the Yankees don't end up missing out on Pettitte too, I really think that 4 years was too long and am glad Lilly's going to Chicago. And I trust Cashman too, it feels like he has a plan. According to Peter Abraham Lilly's agent said they didn't make an offer in part because of luxury tax concerns, and surely length of contract was another consideration.
2006-12-06 17:33:07
162.   Yankee Fan In Boston
161 yes. lilly at 4 years would've been less than desirable, considering what will be available in a year or so (both free agents and minors).
2006-12-06 17:34:37
163.   Yankee Fan In Boston
wouldn't it be great if pavano had a cy young season?

...that's possible... right?

2006-12-06 17:36:51
164.   kdw
163 You're funny. Don't quit your day job.
2006-12-06 17:38:07
165.   sabernar
According to Peter Abraham at LoHud, Lilly picked the Cubs.

And now there's a rumor that the Yanks are thinking about Richie Sexson. Thoughts? Maybe a Pavano for Sexson trade?

2006-12-06 17:38:21
166.   Sliced Bread
163 They're rebuilding him as we speak.

The 2007 Bionic Pavano.

Better, stronger, faster.

February 2007.

2006-12-06 17:38:31
167.   BklynBmr
If we don't get Andy, something has to give...

This is getting scary. I'd be surprised if absolutely nothing gets done, so if Andy is really leaning to Houston, my biggest fear is Cash either lands Zito out of the blue or pulls off a package for D-Train.

I still say snatch Batista, give the kids a shot and slug, slug, slug...

2006-12-06 17:38:46
168.   Yankee Fan In Boston
164 quite technically, it is indeed possible.

(especially if your interpretation of "cy young" is loosly defined... or you count his performance on the new playstation 3 platform...)

2006-12-06 17:41:33
169.   yankz
168 Wouldn't it be hilarious if he was on the DL in that game?
2006-12-06 17:42:23
170.   Yankee Fan In Boston
169 hilariuos? no.
accurate? absolutely.

that would be amazing...

2006-12-06 17:44:09
171.   Shaun P
165 I'm thinking its more and more likely that Pavano will be traded if Pettitte is signed, but I think it will be closer to a 'salary dump' than a salary exchange - say Pavano + $6M to cover some of his $20M remaining salary for a couple of position-playing prospects. Maybe even a young catcher?
2006-12-06 17:45:38
172.   kdw
168 Hmmm, isn't it also technically possible that you show up at spring training, wow the Yankees, end up with a contract and win the Cy Young? In fact, I'm feeling better about your chances than Pavano's.
2006-12-06 17:47:50
173.   Simone
I find it hard to believe that Andy would return to the Yankees with Clemens lying in the weeds to return to the Astros. After all, they are baseball's version of Siamese twins.

165 I didn't even know that Sexson was still around. I don't see why the Yankees don't just sign Wilson if money is an issue.

2006-12-06 17:53:02
174.   sabernar
173 Well, Sexson had an OPS+ of 120 last season and 140 the season before that. And he hasn't had one below 100 since, well, ever if you discount his 11 AB in 1997. Yeah, he's getting a bit up there in years (32 next year), but he's righthanded. He doesn't walk a ton, and he does strike out a lot, but he hits lots of doubles and home runs. He's a consistent .270 BA guy. And according to David Pinto, he was about average with the glove - 98 Out Ratio - while Wilson had a 94 Out Ratio (6th worse in baseball - Giambi had the worst at 81!!!). I'm not necessarily saying I think this is a great idea, but there are worse ones, that's for sure.
2006-12-06 17:56:12
175.   BklynBmr
173 The fix is already in. Andy signs now and the Hummer thief shows up after the All-Star break. Then goes 1-4 with a 7.50 ERA and is on the DL by August 20th. Lemme guess: groin pull.
2006-12-06 18:08:13
176.   mikeplugh
175 Ha. Good line.

I think Pettitte will come back in the end. I think it's pretty much a done deal, and I don't buy the speculation that he's trying to drive up the price on Houston. They already payed him $16 million last year.

I'm thrilled that Lilly is gone. It appears the Yanks never made him an offer, which makes me even happier. The Cubs should do very well next year if they get anything out of Prior and/or Wood. Lilly will be a better pitcher in the NL, and Ramirez/Soriano should be a good middle of the lineup.

They still have issues, but it is the NL after all, and the 80-something win Cardinals did win the Series last year.

2006-12-06 18:18:08
177.   kdw
176 I'm hoping that you're right, it's a done deal. I have mixed feelings about Pettitte coming back but think given a short contract, the near-term needs and his history with the Yankees, it's the right move for both sides (plus I just like him). Part of me thinks that Cashman wouldn't have non-offered Lilly if he didn't have a pretty good idea of where things stand with Pettitte but then again I'd still be happy if Cashman doesn't know what Pettitte's going to do but was sure that regardless, the Lilly wasn't the right move.
2006-12-06 18:37:48
178.   BklynBmr
176 I'm also very encouraged by the fact we didn't put an offer on the table for Lilly. Cashman's stock just keeps rising. As you say, Lilly should do well in the NL, and I wouldn't mind seeing Sweet Lou lead the Cubbies the WS — as long as we sweep 'em there ;-).

177 When I told my wife there appears to be a decent chance of Andy returning, I got a big smile and a thumbs up. That aside, it does make great sense at this moment to sign him for all the reasons you point out, and then some. P-Abe thinks there's even a chance of this getting done tomorrow, which would be sweet.

Then it's onto to first base and catching. And trading Pavano.

2006-12-06 18:45:09
179.   C2Coke
Perhaps we should give Bronx Banter a new nickname: Cash Banter.

I personally like it.

178 But, BklynBmr, you sure the Yankees should trade the 2007 cy young winner?

2006-12-06 19:25:25
180.   wsporter
I get back in and find we've dodged that 4 year $40 million Lilly bullet. Life is good.

I bet he does a great job for Lou over there, on days the wind is still anyway. I think his stuff translates well to that league.

2006-12-06 19:46:07
181.   Yu-Hsing Chen
Freddy Garcia just got traded to the Phillies for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez.

WTFFFFFFF didn't the Pale hose trade Gonzalez to the Phillies just last year in the Jim Thome trade?

2006-12-06 20:43:12
182.   BklynBmr
179 C2C — once we trade him, you know the Cy is a lock. I can almost deal with that, but the 2 no-hitters he throws will really p*ss me off.

Information Overload Dept: "Padres GM Kevin Towers had a phone conversation Wednesday with free agent Mark Loretta." (mlb.padres.com via rotoworld.com) — I gotta get back to work, got nothing done this week, thanks to stuff like this...

2006-12-06 20:46:04
183.   kdw
182 Ditto on the not getting much done this week. Guess tomorrow's gonna be a little ugly.
2006-12-06 22:28:13
184.   Schteeve
Glad we passed on Lilly. It wasn't like he lit the place up the first time he was here.

As for Sexson. WTF? Isn't he the exact thing Cahsman has NOT been doing lately. Old, rickety, declining skills, not much glove. Stick with Craig and Andy and let them duke it out.

2006-12-07 05:02:07
185.   Yankee Fan In Boston
172 that reminds me... i need to book a flight to florida...

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